CONCACAF Reviews and Previews

The Penultimate group stage for CONCACAF (i.e. North American) World Cup Qualifying concluded last night. We are now down to the final six teams, known as the "hex" (for hexagon, which has six sides). Of these, three will qualify for the World Cup outright, and a fourth will vie with the fifth-place team from South America for one more spot.

In my last CONCACAF column, I ranked the top teams in the region. Four of the six teams I ranked highest have come through to the final round, but there are two surprises, including one team I didn't even rank. Here is how I see the final round shaking out.

1. United States

This won't last forever, but I feel comfortable in saying that the USA is clearly the best team in CONCACAF at the moment. They only dropped points in qualifying at Trinidad, after they had already clinched a spot in the final round. What's exciting for Americans is the emergence of several young stars who hopefully will peak for 2010 World Cup.

You already know about Freddy Adu, who scored his first goal for the national team tonight (although he's scored plenty for the various junior USA teams), but he actually might have been surpassed by big, bruising forward Jozy Altidore, who is sixth months Adu's junior and has scored two goals now for the full men's team (in half as many caps as Adu).

2. Mexico

They are lucky to be ranked here. They actually finished second in their qualifying group to Honduras, and only qualified for the final round on tiebreakers (goal differential) over Jamaica. They lost twice and drew once in their final three qualifiers (albeit all on the road), and had to stage second-half comebacks in one of the games they won and in the game they drew. Very lucky to even be here.

But it's Mexico. I can't quite bring myself to rank them lower than second. They are coached by Sven-Goran Eriksson, who coached England from 2001-6, including the 2004 World Cup.

3. Honduras

This is the team that won the group Mexico was in, and has possibly passed Costa Rica as the third best team in the region in winning that group (Honduras, Mexico, Jamaica, Canada), widely believed to be the toughest qualifying group. As an aside, I heard lots of protest from Canadian soccer fans, full of vim after narrowly and controversially losing to the U.S. in the 2007 Gold Cup semifinals, complaining they might not make it into the final round of qualifying in spite of being "the third best team in the region." After finishing qualifying with no wins and two draws in six games, hopefully we can put that "third best team" nonsense to bed.

4. Costa Rica

It would not shock me to see Costa Rica, who went a perfect 6-0-0 in this last round, storm to the top two or three in the final group and cruise into the World Cup. The problem is, after a lackluster Gold Cup, they are still something of an unknown quantity because their qualifying group was so terrible (it included Haiti and Suriname, as well as the team I have ranked sixth in this article).

5. Trinidad and Tobago

When I last wrote about Trinidad, they had lost at home to Bermuda and were in very serious jeopardy of being eliminated from World Cup qualifying before even reaching the group stage. But not only did they recover to make it through, they pushed past Guatemala and Cuba to make the final round, and gave the U.S. their only red mark, a 2-1 win for the Trinis in Port of Spain, in qualifying.

The Trinis were the darlings of the 2004 World Cup, being the smallest nation ever to qualify but holding Sweden to a scoreless draw (on a Saturday on ABC, no less) and nearly doing the same against England.

They have also perhaps overcome more adversity than any other squad in the region, after most of their players refused to report for national team duty after not getting fairly paid for the 2004 World Cup. They also operate under the specter of CONCACAF president Jack Warner, a "Special Adviser" to the national team, and so thoroughly documented to be corrupt that it's amazing he stays in power. He reminds me of American politicians Ted Stevens and James Traficant, who breezily continue to run for office and try to hold it even after they have been convicted of felonies.

6. El Salvador

I will be pulling hard for them. They are the cinderella story of CONCACAF and are the only team in the hex that didn't get a first round qualifying bye. After that first round, they upset Panama in the second round, and then benefited from that easy Costa Rica/El Salvador/Haiti/Suriname group. It's hard to see which of the teams above them they could make a strong case for being ranked over, however.