How the BCS Could Become a Nightmare

Scenario #1

Missouri (10-2 or 9-3) defeats an undefeated Texas Tech in the Big 12 conference championship

Problem created — Throughout the year, it has become apparent that the national championship game will likely be between the champion of the Big 12 and the SEC. Granted, Penn State the likely candidate for Big 10 championship and USC, the likely candidate for Pac 10 championship may have something to say about that at certain points during the year, but the Big 12 and SEC do seem stronger this season than any other conference. They also are two of the conferences that have conference championship games.

This creates a huge problem, especially in the Big 12, where even if Missouri won the Big 12 championship game, it most certainly would not be a candidate for the national title game. What's worse is that if there was no Big 12 title game, Missouri would get no consideration for a BCS bid whatsoever. The fact that they can take away a bid from say Texas or Oklahoma is not okay with me, but if they (or Kansas or Nebraska even) win the Big 12 title game, however unlikely, it would put them in a BCS game, no questions asked.

If you remember last year, Missouri lost the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma when a win would have put them in the BCS title game. The loss ruled them out of the BCS completely, while Ohio State didn't have a title game to play and was granted safe passage to the BCS title game. If Ohio State would have had a title game, it might have been against Illinois, who beat Ohio State toward the end of the season. The fact that Missouri lost two games to the same team and didn't even get into a BCS bowl game while Ohio State got into the BCS title game simply because their conference doesn't have a title game is completely unfair. I pray something similar does not happen again this year.

Solution — There needs to be continuity. Either every conference has a title game or none of them do, take your pick.

Scenario #2

Utah, Boise St. and Ball State all remain undefeated and through various strategic losses, end up ranked #6, #7, and #10, respectively, in the BCS

Problem created —Can you imagine a BCS lineup that looked like this?

Rose Bowl: USC (11-1) vs. Penn State (11-1)
Sugar Bowl: Utah (12-0) vs. Ball State (12-0)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs. Boise State (12-0)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (10-3) vs. Pittsburgh (10-2)
BCS National Championship Game: Alabama (13-0) vs. Texas Tech (13-0)

You could switch that around a number of ways, but just imagine BCS with five undefeated teams and no Florida or Oklahoma. Florida State and Pittsburgh would be on the fringes of the top 25 in the BCS, but they would have automatic bids being conference champs of the ACC and Big East, respectively.

It simply goes against reason that Oklahoma, Florida, and even Ohio State can lose twice to very good teams (Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, we'll let the Ole Miss game slide for Florida, USC, and Penn State) and be shrugged aside for Pittsburgh (losses to Bowling Green and Rutgers) and Florida State (losses to Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and a predicted loss to Florida). In this scenario, every single one of the teams that Oklahoma, Florida, and Ohio State would lose to (excluding Ole Miss) would be in a BCS game, two of them in the championship. And they're getting shunned for a team that lost to Bowling Green, a team that is currently 5-5 in the Mid-American conference?

I understand how a playoff would cause problems and I like the Bowl games, but seriously, there needs to be a tougher rule on what conferences get automatic bids for BCS games. At this point in time, I'm willing to even say they should be rid of it altogether. Four (maybe five) teams from the Big 12 deserve to get in before any in the Big East or ACC. You could make the argument for three from the SEC and three from the Big 10, as well. I'd even go so far as to say three from the Mountain West.

I feel genuinely sorry for the bowl game(s) that get stuck with the winners of the Big East and ACC. They are simply getting a far worse caliber game than bowl games that draw any of the other conferences with automatic bids.

Solution — Stricter guidelines on automatic bids for conference champions.

Scenario #3

Everybody currently above Utah in the BCS (Alabama, Texas Tech, Penn State, Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Florida) loses at least one game (this is not impossible)

Problem(s) created — Alabama escaped LSU — that would have sent things in a crazy spiral already — but they pulled it off in overtime. They still have to face Mississippi State and Auburn and both those teams have nothing to lose. Alabama is going to have trouble in the SEC Championship Game, when they will likely face off with Florida.

Florida could also have problems winning out. The Gators still have to beat Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Gamecocks next week and that will be no cake walk. Then there is at Florida State another great rivalry. Even if they escape from those two, Florida would still have to beat Alabama for the SEC title. While Florida does look pretty amazing right now, three of their final four games are very losable on the road to the BCS.

Texas Tech has been outstanding. They knocked off Texas in a thriller, knocked off Oklahoma State in a blowout, and they have to go to Oklahoma for their next game in two weeks. The extra week off will be helpful no doubt, but that is going to be a very difficult game to win. Winning that, however, would put them in the Big 12 Championship Game against (more than likely) Missouri and even if they lost that, they could very well be in the BCS title game. It's definitely a tough call.

Oklahoma has one of the tougher roads to the BCS title game. They'd need to knock off Texas Tech, a team that is as hot as anybody right now and win at Oklahoma State. If they did that, I'm not sure who would win a tie-breaker between Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, but if Oklahoma won, they'd have to face Missouri and that is never a guaranteed victory.

Texas seems to be the team with the easiest road to win out. They play at Kansas, no cakewalk, but very winnable and at home against Texas A&M. I don't know what scenario would get Texas into a Big 12 Championship Game (perhaps Texas Tech losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State), but they could lose there, just like everybody else.

USC's biggest challenge was this past weekend and they prevailed against Cal. Still, at Stanford and at home against rival Notre Dame are very losable, especially with the spotlight on you.

Penn State already lost to Iowa and as I write this, I'm uncertain where they'll be placed in the BCS standings for this week, but even if they get placed ahead of Utah, they still have to defeat a very tough Michigan State team. The Big 10 and Pac-10 have huge advantages over the Big 12 and SEC in the fact that there are no conference championship games in the Big 10 or Pac-10. Penn State would not have to play an extra game against Ohio State or Michigan State. They would just be in, much like Ohio State was last year.

If all those teams were to miraculously lose, the BCS selection committee would be faced with a similar problem as last year: deciding between a myriad of two-loss teams or an undefeated Hawaii. This year (if they win out) Utah, will have at least two very big wins on their schedule, knocking off TCU this week and BYU. They would have a stronger argument for a national title bid than Hawaii did last year, whose only notable win was over Boise State.

It would seem unlikely that Florida or Alabama couldn't claim one of the two spots in the BCS title game, but if they both end with two losses, it would be a tough call. One would also expect somebody in the Big 12 to end with one loss and be a candidate for BCS champion, but that conference championship game against Missouri just seems to be standing in the way of reason. Would Texas, Texas Tech, or Oklahoma (all potentially with one loss and not even in the Big 12 title game) get a shot at the National Championship when they weren't even in their own conference championship? Could Missouri somehow sneak past all of the powerhouses in the Big 12 and claim a title bid for themselves?

What is unfortunately more likely is that Penn State or USC will slide right past the prospects of a conference championship game and be very able one-loss candidates.

Then you throw in an even bigger wrench of the scenario where if you pick say Florida at 11-1 and Utah at 12-0, how do you pick Utah, but not Boise State (if they go undefeated, as well), or for that matter, Ball State (if they also would go undefeated).?

Solution — There may be no solution to this problem. The only thing that could even be considered close to a solution would be a playoff, but that creates so many more problems I can't begin to cover them.