Be Careful What You Wish For

With just a second left on the clock last Saturday night, Michael Crabtree ripped a Graham Harrell pass out of the air and the hearts out of Colt McCoy and the Texas Longhorns. He waltzed into the end zone after a broken tackle and a sideline tightrope act, setting off a (premature) field storming for the undefeated Red Raiders. Texas Tech had knocked the Longhorns from atop the BCS, all the way down into the rooting section for, of all teams, Oklahoma.

And after the game, I wondered one thing: how special would it have been if, even after Crabtree slipped out of the grasp of cornerback Curtis Brown to glide into the end zone, Texas was still firmly in playoff position? What if the Longhorns could just shrug and say, hey, whatever, it just means a slightly tougher first round game? What if they even would thank Texas Tech for keeping them out of a potentially pesky Big 12 title game that could result in injury or a bad loss later?

Like most angry mobs, playoff proponents haven't fully immersed themselves in that line of thinking. And before taking torches and pitchforks to the BCS's doorsteps, some introspection, while unlikely, might be an advisable course of action.

And with an 83-win team winning a World Series, the AFC's six-seed winning a Super Bowl, a 10th-ranked team winning an NCAA basketball title (not to mention that it was in a 64-team tournament), and a team with an RPI of 89 winning the College World Series in the last few years, what's wrong with a sport where the regular season, all of it, truly matters? Where fans cannot expect to emerge from a loss in good shape, where teams cannot throw out their worst performance like the lowest mark from an Olympic judge?

The call for a playoff has been resounding, and the disparagement of the BCS even more vitriolic. As I've said, the current system sets out to accomplish an impossible task: paring over 100 teams with disparate schedules down to two over 12 games. Of course there is the fact that the pre-BCS world had even more nebulous championships.

So where would we be this season? With a playoff? With a plus-one? Let's see what kind of drama would unfold (or wouldn't unfold) with a number of scenarios before breaking out the riot gear. And we begin with the one most people want: an eight-team playoff. (BCS rank in parenthesis.)

(And yes, insinuating that the powers-that-be would choose based on competitive forces and fairness is like saying the NFL is cracking down on rough hits based on concern for the health of players. College presidents will lean where they think the money is; NFL execs fine legal hits on skill players while not lifting a finger to protect linemen from cut blocks. But in the world of sportswriting, we get to live in silly utopian fantasy worlds, so just roll with it.)

Eight-team playoff: BCS conference champs auto-bid

Matchups if teams hold serve: Alabama (1) vs. West Virginia (25), Texas Tech (2) vs. North Carolina (19), Penn State (3) vs. USC (7), Texas (4) vs. Florida (5)

In an eight-team playoff, the loser of that Texas/Texas Tech shootout would not just be in the hunt, but in position to win out and be surprisingly safe. Alabama could also probably take a loss without sweating it. USC's loss to Oregon State and Florida's loss to Ole Miss become tax write-offs, no more damning to title hopes than a bad hair day. UNC lost to two teams from one state (UVA and VaTech) while West Virginia receives no punishment for non-conference losses to East Carolina and Colorado.

Sure, we get meaningful races in the Big East and ACC to be the hours doeuvres on a platter to reward the top two seeds, but really, how much national interest would there be for these games? Would it really be worth relegating the Bowl System to NIT status?

Obviously with this format, more teams remain in the hunt for longer, keeping fan interest in the national title chase alive for any team that could hope to supplant one of the eight. (That's a lot of teams.) But just as in any other sport, the cost of keeping teams alive is that early season games matter less and less. Are dozens of crucial games in September worth trading for watching an SEC or Big 12 champion squash the team holding the hot potato that is the ACC title?

Yet still, in every major conference except the SEC, at least three teams sit within a game of first with about four to play. Tons of games have title relevance, and flocks of teams have a shot with this scenario. Additionally, watching conference rivals lay eggs in non-conference games would no longer have to infuriate teams. Should USC be punished when UCLA gets embarrassed by BYU? When Oregon State somehow fails to show up at Beaver Stadium in Penn State? No, a team's destiny is in its hands. And want to win a national title? You better win a conference first.

Eight-team playoff: Straight seeding

Alabama (1) vs. Utah (8), Texas Tech (2) vs. USC (7), Penn State (3) vs. Oklahoma (6), Texas (4) vs. Florida (5)

Similar story in terms of bad losses netting minimal punishment. But at least now Oklahoma and Utah displace West Virginia and North Carolina, forcing conferences to provide a worthy champion to earn a berth. Should an undefeated, higher-ranked Utah really take a backseat to some flawed, multi-loss team when the Mountain West has been so strong this year?

Of course, this tournament starts to look like a Big 12/SEC invitational. And yes, with as few meaningful out of conference games as there are each year, it is tough to truly establish a conference pecking order. But let's face facts year. Are there really more than a few teams outside this season's Big Two that could realistically survive in them? So why shouldn't a playoff have the flexibility to account for that? The BCS rankings may be limited, but not to the point where, at year's end, it confuses the 19th best team for the eighth.

And the drama plays out for any team that sees a shot at No. 8. Oklahoma State, Boise State, Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Missouri, BYU, and LSU all wait in line, hoping for that one impressive win, all while vigilantly looking up, becoming new fans of anyone facing the eight teams nesting in a playoff perch.

Still, top teams are not punished for losses. Flaws are acceptable, as long as your conference is good enough. Plus teams in the top four at this point are in many cases not even playing for their lives. Imagine Alabama hosting hated rival Auburn, knowing that even as the No. 1 team, a loss wouldn't knock them out of playoff position? Theoretically, teams could be motivated to rest players in late-season rivalry games if they were unlikely to drop out of the top eight with a loss. Texas moved from one to four this last week. Imagine if their game against rival Texas A&M were equally harmless instead? Sure, pride is an issue. So is Mack Brown's desire to win a second national title in four years.

Plus-one

Alabama vs. Texas, Texas Tech vs. Penn State

Those teams mentioned two paragraphs ago now become outsiders. Then again, who wants to see two-loss Ohio State, LSU, and Missouri back in the title race and given equal standing in a playoff to the teams that gave them those losses? Plus, while resume still matters in an eight-team tournament, it's much more likely that a soft schedule will get you at least a seven- or eight-seed: a veritable safety school of playoff applications. But with a plus-one, you better have a power win out of conference if you want to survive a down year by your conference. Not when the playoffs have fewer seats than a Ford Focus.

Fifth-ranked teams rarely have legitimate complaints with regard to national titles. Sure, they are likely to have a beef with the fourth-ranked squad. But that will happen wherever you put the cutoff for entry; ninth will beef with eighth, 33rd with the 32nd. And almost all the teams that won't be there and try pointing fingers can listen to the three pointing back at them. The best one-loss teams still have a shot but are guarunteed nothing. Texas is not safe after the loss to Tech. Say Florida runs the table in the SEC; a close win over 'Bama in the title game could in theory get both teams in.

In this scenario, the race for the Big 12 title would be life-or-death with regard to the title chase. Non-conference champions would really need pigs to fly and the fountain of youth to spring from Joe Paterno's naval to have a true shot. At the same time, teams like USC, Florida, and Oklahoma are all about one lucky break away from being back on the guest list.

Current BCS

Texas Tech vs. Alabama

No doubt that, again assuming Tech holds on to beat Oklahoma and win out, this is a deserving and intriguing game. That Red Raider aerial assault locked on against Alabama's vicious defense is an incredibly fascinating matchup. And don't get me wrong, I still like the BCS better than the bowls before the BCS. In any other sport, the best two teams in the country eventually square off in something other than a popularity contest or an election.

But this year the likely scenarios range from an undefeated Penn State sulking off to Pasadena instead of Miami, or another Big Ten team going against the winner from a superior conference.

Then again, should the Nittany Lions be punished for Ohio State's putrid showings against the SEC in the last two title games? They probably will be. I don't think analysts are breaking down the Big Ten and SEC differences based on the Michigan win over Florida in the Capital One Bowl last year.

In the current system, USC can start booking bus tickets for Pasadena, assuming the Trojans win out and assuming Oregon State doesn't (likely since the Beavers still have most of the top half of the conference left). An undefeated Penn State also needs help. And what have USC or Penn State done against each other? Nothing, other than that USC's showing against a ranked OSU was better, while PSU's showing against the OSU in the Pac-10 was better. Texas meanwhile needs its rival to create a tie for a division title it may still lose. Either way, the teams from this class that finish strong are clearly in the elite, and more than two of them will have a claim as one of the best two teams in the country.

So what does it all mean?

Other than the fact that sportswriters have far too much time on their hands? To me, it means that a plus-one is still the most effective, convenient, least earth-shattering way to get past the current BCS season. Bowls remain as valuable as they are, and you could either have semifinals at bowl time and a final a week later, or simply have national semifinals in December. (I would propose home games as rewards for the top two teams ... plus, how many fan bases can travel en masse to two neutral sites in one month?)

Some will disagree. They may not be as bothered as I am by the forgiveness of an eight-team playoff. And they might point out that there is still not a lot of margin for error when aiming for the top eight of 119. They have a point. There are some games that would be lost to irrelevance, but plenty of excitement at that 8-9 border.

And some will defend the BCS, arguing that ... aw, who am I kidding? Let's go grab those pitchforks and torches.