I have the privilege of spending the next couple of days in Denver. Aside from all the Yankee hats (doesn't Denver have a baseball team?), the people out here are pretty nice.
And contrary to what I've been told, the late October weather is pretty fantastic. It's been 70 degrees and sunny since I got here, and it's not supposed to change before I leave.
Given my responsibility as a Sports Central columnist, I've been watching the local sportscasts and talking to sports fans in local bars in an attempt to get a feel for what people out here think of the Denver Broncos.
As long as I don't tell them I'm from New England, I get a pretty honest response. The people out here are generally optimistic, but there seems to be an underlying lack of confidence.
It's not because of the offense. They love Jay Cutler. He's not on Elway's level, but nobody's on Elway's level out here. He may, however, be as close as anyone's going to get.
They don't worry about the turnovers, they don't worry about the lack of a great running back, and they aren't all that worried about Brandon Marshall's off-field issues (unless it results in another suspension).
It's when you bring up the defense that they pause.
You don't have to look at stats when judging the Broncos' defense. All you have to do is watch. When they turn the 2008 Patriots into the 2007 Patriots, you know there's a problem.
It's amazing to me that people were calling the Broncos a potential Super Bowl threat earlier this season.
Have we learned nothing from this decade?
In 2000, the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer and a "just stay out of the way" offense.
In 2001, the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl with a not-yet-Tom Brady and a dominating defense.
In 2002, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after allowing only 196 points, an average of only 12.2 points per game.
In 2003, the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl after giving up only 14 points per game and averaging 1.1 more takeaways than turnovers per game.
In 2004, the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl after giving up only 177 points all season, a ridiculous average of 11.1 points per game.
In 2005, the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl after finishing third in point against, and fourth in overall defense.
In 2006, Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts finally got their Super Bowl. Not because Manning changed, but because his defense went from a laughing stock in the regular season to a team that gave up 8, 6, and 10 points on defense (the Bears scored a touchdown on special teams in the Super Bowl) in the playoffs against teams not quarterbacked by Tom Brady.
In 2007, the New York Giants knocked off the greatest offensive team in NFL history in one of the most improbable Super Bowl upsets ever. How? They dominated on defense.
See a pattern?
That's why teams like the Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, and Cardinals (among others) don't interest me this season. Why bother putting effort into teams that have absolutely no shot of achieving any significant playoff success?
Yes, they may be good for a few exciting wins in the regular season, but the formula just doesn't work in the playoffs.
The Titans, Steelers, Giants, and Bucs are far more intriguing come playoff time. There are teams built to win in the regular season and teams built to win in the playoffs.
Every season, people fall in love with the great offensive teams. For a long time it was the Colts. Now it's the Cowboys. Those teams never, ever win Super Bowls. Even last season's Patriots, the best offensive team ever, were beaten by a great defensive team.
The formula isn't simple, but it's well defined. It's been proven over and over again. Yet, for some reason, it's only followed by a handful of NFL teams. Defense over offense, every time. Build the defense first, let the offense come along for the ride.
In other words, don't be the Lions or the Bengals, be the Giants or the Steelers.
Anyway, what's the point of all this?
I pay attention to history. History tells me teams like the Cowboys and Broncos will fail come playoff time.
And barring a major injury or a quarterback switch (no defense is good enough to carry Vince Young), the Tennessee Titans are going to win the Super Bowl.
Sean Crowe writes a column for Sports Central every other Thursday. He also covers the New England Patriots for Examiner.com.
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