BCS-Mania!

Much is to be determined in figuring out the full BCS bowl and national championship picture at this time. Having said that, any rabid college football fan worth his or her salt has his/her own ideas on how it will play out. Being one of those aforementioned, I also have my opinions on what will or will not happen as we zip through college football's stretch run.

One caution: the prognostications below are for entertainment purposes only — nobody should be running to Vegas anytime soon using this as their guide — however, if you do decide that this is quality enough fodder to risk you rent on it, remember us little people when you win.

THE CONTENDERS

Below is a listing of the BCS bowl-eligible teams (top 14 in BCS rankings, 9 wins or more) with their current BCS standing and their projected ranking, record and applicable league title. It should be noted (and is later in this article), that the ACC champ and Big East champ will both fall outside of the top 14. According to the BCS rules, automatic berths being given to ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC conference champions is at the discretion of the BCS panel and is reassessed annually. Since I do not have access to this information at this time, I will assume that the Big East team will not be afforded an auto-berth and the ACC champ will, based on past performances of teams from those conferences.

1. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Current BCS ranking: 1 (8-0, 1st in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS ranking: 1 (13-0, Big 12 champ)

Breakdown: A hard fought 28-24 victory over Oklahoma State notwithstanding, the 'Horns seem destined to reach their second title game in four seasons. Having successful navigated through three-quarters of a nasty four-game stretch against top-10 opponents with little blood loss, the only tests that remain are a showdown against undefeated but somewhat overrated Texas Tech and the eventual Big 12 championship game where a rematch versus Mizzou seems likely. Expect UT to win out, but even if with one loss, there is a very strong likelihood that the Austin-based powerhouse will be featured in the National Championship Game.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: BCS National Championship Game

2. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Current BCS Ranking: 2 (8-0, 1st in SEC West)
Projected BCS Ranking: 5 (12-1, loss in SEC title game)

Breakdown: The Tide should roll right through the rest of their regular season, though they do have a tough Nov. 8th matchup at LSU. Convincing victories against Clemson and Georgia and a propensity to do just enough to win the close games give pollsters a great deal of confidence in Nick Saban's crew. Unfortunately, Alabama will have to face the SEC East leader en route to bowl season, which should derail an otherwise magical rejuvenation in 'Bama.

Upcoming losses: Florida (SEC title game)
BCS Bowl: Fiesta Bowl

3. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Current BCS Ranking: 3 (9-0, 1st in Big Ten)
Projected BCS Ranking: 2 (12-0, Big Ten champ)

Breakdown: The 13-6 victory of Ohio State all but locked up the Big Ten title, with only a season-ending game against an overrated Michigan State squad left between themselves and a perfect 2008 campaign. While a season-crushing collapse in one of the Nittany Lions' last three games would not surprise me terribly, it is far more likely that we'll see JoePa's charges finish what they started in earning themselves an improbably berth in the national title tilt.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: BCS National Championship Game

4. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Current BCS Ranking: 4 (7-1, 4th in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS Ranking: 7 (10-2)

Breakdown: Unfortunately for Bob Stoops' Sooner team, the Big 12 was simply loaded in 2008. In most seasons, the explosive offense showcased by OU would be more than enough to carry the team to a spot in the Big 12 title game at the very least. But with both Texas and Oklahoma State in rare form, the Big 12 South was a mine field that left the Oklahoma team beaten and broken. Even worse for OU, BCS rules prohibit more than two teams in the same conference from participating in BCS bowls, which leaves them on the outside looking in.

Upcoming losses: Oklahoma State (11/29)
BCS Bowl: None

5. USC TROJANS

Current BCS Ranking: 5 (6-1, 1st in Pac-10)
Projected BCS Ranking: 4 (11-1, 1st in Pac-10)

Breakdown: How devastating was that loss to Oregon State? The Trojans have outscored their opponents 245-30 in their wins, including 30-plus point destructions of nationally-ranked Oregon and Ohio State. Had USC handled their business in that loss, there is a very strong likelihood that they would be sitting atop the BCS standings with a cake-walk of a schedule down the stretch. While Pete Carroll would certainly have preferred playing in that Miami championship game, he can take heart knowing his Trojan team could have mailed in their season after that disappointing early season loss and they did not.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Rose Bowl

6. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Current BCS Ranking: 6 (7-1, 1st in SEC East)
Projected BCS Ranking: 8 (10-2)

Breakdown: A November 1st showdown with the Florida Gators will, at least by my projections, mean the difference between a third place spot in the final BCS polls or missing the BCS bowl games altogether. The winner of that game will pretty much lock up first in the SEC East, setting up a title game with Alabama, and I fully expect the SEC East leader to wind up winning that title game. The loser will be in the same boat as Oklahoma, as Alabama will receive a BCS bowl invite leaving room for only one more SEC team.

Upcoming losses: Florida (11/1)
BCS Bowl: None

7. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Current BCS Ranking: 7 (8-0, 2nd in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS Ranking: 23 (9-3)

Breakdown: Mike Leach's Red Raider team has opened some eyes in 2008, having rolled to an 8-0 start. Sadly, the team still has games against conference power houses Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma and while wins in two of those three games would go a long way toward staking Tech's claim as one of the nation's top teams, a more realistic assessment has them losing at least two if not all three of those contests, dropping them in the rankings significantly. Even though most would see such a late-season collapse as a disappointment, the boys from Lubbock should be optimistic as they better position themselves in recruiting for '09 and beyond.

Upcoming losses: Texas (11/1), Oklahoma State (11/8), Oklahoma (11/22)
BCS Bowl: None

8. FLORIDA GATORS

Current BCS Ranking: 8 (6-1, 2nd in SEC East)
Projected BCS Ranking: 3 (12-1, SEC champ)

Breakdown: After a shocking home loss to Mississippi, it has been all business for Tim Tebow and company. The Gators dismantled LSU and completely obliterated Kentucky in back-to-back wins. While that Nov. 1st game at Georgia looms as a "must-win," you get the feeling that this team is every bit as good as any other in the league, which leaves you scratching your head as to how their coaching staff could have allowed such an unfortunate let down earlier in the year. I am quite certain that Florida will beat the Bulldogs rather handily as will they handle Alabama in the SEC title game, but that loss will ultimately doom them as they wind up winning their bowl game and finishing as the second-ranked team in the land.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Sugar Bowl

9. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

Current BCS Ranking: 9 (7-1, 3rd in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS Ranking: 6 (11-1)

Breakdown: I see this Cowboy team as the best team in the Big 12 not named "Longhorns." They have a strong offense, a great defense, and play a very sound game that translates well to success in big game environments. That they lost by less than a touchdown against a UT squad that was absolutely rolling over anything in its way speaks volumes on just how good this team is. Late season, games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech will tell the final story on the OSU '08 season, but should they win those two games, you have to think they'd be an ecstatic bunch when reviewing their accomplishments.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Sugar Bowl

10. UTAH UTES

Current BCS Ranking: 10 (8-0, 2nd in Mountain West)
Projected BCS Ranking: 12 (11-1)

Breakdown: Please note this next sentence, as you won't hear it often in your lifetime: the Mountain West conference is absolutely stacked with talent this season. BYU was a vogue top-15 pick heading into the season, TCU has trounced everyone they've played and the Utes have rolled through their first eight games with little resistance. Even Air Force has put forth a yeoman's effort in '08. If nothing else, the continued success of these "secondary conference" teams should further the argument for a national playoff system. Alas, Utah will lose their November 6th showdown with TCU leaving them on the outside looking in at the other BCS teams.

Upcoming losses: TCU (11/6)
BCS Bowl: None

11. BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Current BCS Ranking: 11 (7-0, 1st in WAC)
Projected BCS Ranking: 10 (12-0, WAC champ)

Breakdown: Like clockwork, Boise State has put together a near perfect season. Unfortunately the Broncos had a much easier schedule this time around, playing only a single top-25 team (a five-point win at Oregon). This fact will keep them off the radar screen and likely out of a BCS bowl, with TCU earning that honor for the mid-majors; however, with the Big East champ so far down in the rankings this season, they may well secure an at-large bid.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Fiesta Bowl

12. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Current BCS Ranking: 12 (7-2, 3rd in Big Ten)
Projected BCS Ranking: 11 (10-2, 2nd in Big Ten)

Breakdown: Many had the Buckeyes as odds-on favorites for a third straight national title appearance. However, an early-season loss to USC wounded those hopes and this past weekend's disappointment at home against Penn State ended them altogether. Still, a strong finish may get the highly regarded Ohio State team an at-large selection for a rematch with USC in Pasadena, which would not be a total loss for the perennial contenders.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Rose Bowl

13. TCU HORNED FROGS

Current BCS Ranking: 13 (8-1, 1st in Mountain West)
Projected BCS Ranking: 9 (11-1, Mountain West champ)

Breakdown: The only blemish on TCU's record was a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma. That they even scheduled that game should tell you all you need to know about the TCU administration and how committed they are to making the Horned Frogs a prominent force in the college football landscape. This is a good team that will win a title in a good conference and they'll be my sleeper pick to upset a giant in whatever BCS bowl game they get selected to.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Orange Bowl

14. MISSOURI TIGERS

Current BCS Ranking: 14 (6-2, 1st in Big 12 North)
Projected BCS Ranking: 14 (10-3, loss in Big 12 championship)

Breakdown: Missouri is a strong team that fell flat at the wrong time of the season. Granted, they are a far inferior team to the Longhorns, but they should have played a closer game and the loss Oklahoma State was inexcusable for a team fancying themselves as top-10 material. That said, the Big 12 North is weak this season, so they will get their second shot at UT. Should they keep that game competitive, they might get some attention from some of the bigger non-BCS bowls, but they're fate is sealed and they won't be in a BCS game unless they shock the planet with an improbably Big 12 title game win.

Upcoming losses: Texas (Big 12 title game)
BCS Bowl: None

REST OF THE TOP 25

(Not BCS bowl-eligible)

15. FLORIDA STATE
Current: 15 (6-1)
Projected: 24 (9-3)

16. BALL STATE
Current: 16 (8-0)
Projected: 15 (13-0, Mid-American champ)

17. MINNESOTA
Current: 17 (7-1)
Projected: 20 (10-2)

18. TULSA
Current: 18 (7-0)
Projected: 13 (13-0, Conference USA champ)

19. LSU
Current: 19 (5-2)
Projected: 19 (9-3)

20. BYU
Current: 20 (7-1)
Projected: 22 (10-2)

21. MICHIGAN STATE
Current: 21 (7-2)
Projected: Unranked

22. NORTH CAROLINA
Current: 22 (6-2)
Projected: 25 (9-3)

23. SOUTH FLORIDA
Current: 23 (6-2)
Projected: Unranked

24. OREGON
Current: 24 (6-2)
Projected: 18 (10-2)

25. UCONN
Current: 25 (6-2)
Projected: 16 (11-2, Big East champ)

BCS BOWL PROJECTED MATCHUPS

January 1st: Rose Bowl: (12) Ohio State vs. (4) USC
January 1st: Orange Bowl: (17) Maryland vs. (9) TCU
January 2nd: Sugar Bowl: (6) Oklahoma State vs. (3) Florida
January 5th: Fiesta Bowl: (10) Boise State vs. (5) Alabama
January 8th: BCS National Championship Game: (2) Penn State vs. (1) Texas

There you have it! Enjoy the rest of your college football season. It should be full of great games, exciting matchups, and those pesky unexpected surprises.

Oh, and if you aren't in it just for the "entertainment," best of luck to you the rest of the way out!