Firstly, as a declaration of interest, I wish to point out that I'll be rooting for the Rays. Not out of any dislike for the Phillies, who have a solid line up of honest good guys (Brett Myers excepted). Plus, they regularly shaft the Mets, much to my amusement.
My problem with the Phillies is the resident grumpy old hack of the Philadelphia Daily News, Bill "Those Were the Days" Conlin. Herr Conlin, who's seemingly covered the team since its inception, is well known in blogging circles for his speculation that Adolf Hitler would have eliminated all bloggers had he still been around in today's Internet age (unlikely, as Hitler would have been over 100-years-old when Al Gore invented the web — or six years younger than Bill Conlin). Conlin also managed to get himself booted off his Comcast Sports TV gig with a racial slur against Hispanics.
I can live with these indiscretions as Conlin is: 1) Really old and actually remembers Hitler batting leadoff for the Linz Hobos (he was a gritty David Eckstein-type with a low OBP, dodgy mustache, and one testicle); and 2) He's endured a lot of losing sports franchises in Philly, so he's entitled to be a bit testy.
What really pisses me off about Conlin and his ilk is that they are all so smug and self-satisfied with blimp-sized egos that would put Simon Cowell to shame. I once sent Conlin an e-mail after he wrote a spiteful column venting his spleen against Pat Burrell and his high strikeout ratio. Burrell is a regular target for the bitter Philly media and, admittedly, his game has weaknesses, but I decided to ask Conlin why a strikeout was such an abomination, compared to say a routine popup or grounding into a double play.
His reply was spectacularly petty and vicious, especially since I'd asked the question politely and without any criticism of his article. He stereotyped me as a "soccer hooligan" (I'd signed my e-mail "Mike in England"), enclosed photos of his car and collection of houses, and challenged me to a career comparison. I took exception to his tone — I haven't been convicted of soccer hooliganism since the early-'80s and my "career" consists of marrying a particularly attractive and wealthy American woman — but I replied by asking the question again and congratulating him on his obvious success.
This time, I got a list of the events he'd covered in his lifetime (every major sporting event worldwide dating from the original Athens Olympics), a reference to the decline of the British Empire due to the inherent laziness of the British people, and a brief synopsis of his salary package, but no answer to my question.
So, to paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, I'm rooting for the Rays out of spite.
Putting Bill Conlin aside, let's take an impartial look at how the two teams matchup.
Homefield Advantage
Courtesy of Brad Lidge blowing a save in the All-Star Game, Tampa Bay gets to begin and end the series in The Trop where they own the best homefield advantage in the game. The real advantage for the Rays is that on the road they'll be playing in the bandbox Citizens Bank where their prodigious home run power will come into play.
Advantage — Rays
Managers
Joe Maddon had a shaky ALCS, blundering his way through Game 5 with some truly mind-numbingly bad pitching decisions, and then redeemed himself with his by-the-numbers approach in Game 7. Despite all the manager of the year talk, there were times in the heat of the battle with Boston that Maddon resembled a deer frozen in the headlights. To his (and his players') credit, they held it together for Game 7. That said, Charlie Manuel is a wily old fox, he has a veteran roster to call on, and his bullpen options are more straightforward.
Advantage — Phillies
Starting Pitching
From nowhere, the Rays have acquired the deepest starting rotation in the AL. The Phillies aren't as deep (though they have the best starter in Hamels) and rely more heavily on their bullpen to keep the team ERA at a respectable 3.88.
Scott Kazmir (2.90 home ERA) against Cole Hamels is an intriguing Game 1 matchup of power lefties. Hamels suffers no drop-off on the road (3.19 ERA this season), but he has a career ERA of 4.63 indoors against a lifetime ERA of 3.43. This will be his first outing in Tropicana Field.
James Shields has looked shaky at time in the postseason, but pitches well at home (2.59 ERA). He matches up well against Brett Myers in Game 2, who has been poor on the road this year (6.21 ERA, .301 BAA) and in his career (4.69 ERA, .275 BAA). The Rays will be counting this as a banker win.
The backend of the rotations heavily favor the Rays. Matt Garza was sensational in Game 7 of the ALCS, but he's better at the Trop than on the road (2.89/4.53 ERA split). That said, he'll be confident of dispatching Jamie Moyer, who was brutalized in his last outing in Los Angeles.
Andy Sonnanstine doesn't possess the array of pitches that Kazmir, Shields, and Garza can call upon, but he's tough and won both his playoff starts by pitching to contact and letting his defense do the rest. Joe Blanton was mediocre in the regular season but has pitched well in the playoffs against the Dodgers and Brewers. I suspect he may struggle against a harder hitting Rays team in a small ballpark.
Advantage — Rays
Bullpen
There's a lot of talk about how effective the Rays' bullpen is, and that was certainly true during the regular season, despite the lack of an everyday closer. The relievers have looked a lot more fragile since the epic Game 5 collapse in the ALCS and there's a sneaking suspicion that Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are all hittable in close games. Situational guys Chad Bradford (RHP) and Trever Miller (LHP) are strictly one-out pitchers, so the question remains — who closes?
After his eighth- and ninth-inning heroics in Game 7 of the ALCS, 2007 first-overall pick David Price (LHP) could get the call. The way he handled J.D. Drew, striking him out looking with bases loaded was mightily impressive and he'd have cleaned up the ninth with a routine 1-2-3 inning had Sam Holbrook at first base spotted that Jason Bay clearly went around with two strikes against him. Price is an unknown quantity, as was Francisco Rodriguez setting up Troy Percival in the 2002 World Series, but he looks composed and can call on a 96 mph fastball and an 87 mph slider to befuddle hitters.
The Phillies 'pen is well set. Ryan Madson is the primary righty, J.C. Romero the lefty, with Brad Lidge entrenched in the ninth. Off the main menu are righties Clay Condrey and Chad Durbin and lefties J.A Happ and Scott Eyre, who are solid, but a drop-off from the three main men. The Rays have better depth, the Phillies a better top three.
Advantage — Even
Hitting
These teams can really mash. Nobody hit more home runs (214) in the NL than the Phillies and only the Cubs scored more runs and had a better slugging percentage. With Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and the under-valued Shane Victorino, the Phillies are always a threat at the plate even though they weren't firing on all cylinders in the NLDS or NLCS. Improved contributions from streaky hitters Howard and Utley could decimate the Rays' pitching.
The Rays hit 180 home runs (fourth in the AL) in the regular season, but it has been in the post season that their bats have exploded, with an incredible 22 home runs already. Add to that the 17 stolen bases (more than the other three Championship Series teams added together) and you have a balanced, aggressive attack.
B.J. Upton heard some criticism in the regular season for his casual attitude and lack of power (9 home runs). He's exploded in the playoffs with 7 homers and 15 RBIs. He'll be the most talented and dangerous player on either side.
Both teams are offensive superpowers, but the Rays have the hot bats and slightly more talent.
Advantage — Rays
Defense
Rays outfielders Carl Crawford, Upton, and Gabe Gross/Rocco Baldelli are a big defensive upgrade on Pat Burrell, Victorino, and Jayson Werth.
In the infield, Carlos Pena is a gold glove-caliber first baseman, Jason Bartlett, despite his struggles in the ALCS, is a defensive stud, and Evan Longoria at third and Akinori Iwamura at second are solid glove men.
Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Chase Utley matchup well with their Ray counterparts, as does Carlos Ruiz with Dioner Navarro, but it's in the outfield and at first, with Ryan Howard a mediocre defensive player, that the Rays have a big advantage.
Advantage — Rays
Bench
In Philadelphia and at DH in home games, the Rays will be able to call on Willy Aybar, one of Rocco Baldelli or Gabe Gross, Cliff Floyd, and the speedy Fernando Perez. That's significantly better than Gregg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, and So Taguchi. The Rays can bring power, speed, and defense from the bench, whereas the Phillies bench looks more one-dimensional. AL teams usually have an advantage here and this year is no exception.
Advantage — Rays
Summary
FOX executives might have been praying for a Boston/Los Angeles fall classic, but baseball fans will be more than happy to see two different and well-matched teams contesting the final series of the season.
Tampa Bay's emergence from obscurity and irrelevance has captured the imagination of every sports fan in the nation and they will be the romantic pick. Those most unromantic of people, the Vegas oddsmakers, have them as favorites, too.
The AL East is a lot harder to win than the NL East and the Rays will be battle-hardened after a nerve-wracking series against Boston, while the Phillies cruised by a weak Los Angeles and out-of-form Milwaukee.
I hope it goes the distance, but expect Bill Conlin to be bitterly attacking Charlie Manuel (again) after the Rays take it all in six.
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