Five Quick Hits
* This was a historic week for wild finishes: the Falcons, Rams, Texans, and Vikings all won in the last 10 seconds, and Dallas made a last-second field goal to get to overtime.
* The Panthers have had as many punts blocked this year (3) as the rest of the league combined. They might want to work on that.
* I was impressed with Indianapolis fans on Sunday. Peyton Manning motioned the crowd to be quiet on offense, and the stadium went silent.
* There's a recent trend of players slamming the ball forward (instead of spiking it down) on TD celebrations. Sooner or later, someone is accidentally going to throw it too high and nail somebody in the stands.
* I criticize ESPN all the time, but on Monday night, I liked the way they showed the timing of the illegal contact on Eli Manning's fumble at the end of the first half. It was the right call, and ESPN showed its viewers why.
***
Even at the professional level, teams respond very differently to adversity. Some teams elevate their play, stepping things up to get through hard times, or maybe even just to prove that they're bigger than the problem. We saw an example of that last week, when the Giants played their best game of the season without Plaxico Burress. Other teams go in the tank. They get discouraged and lose their mojo, or sometimes give up altogether. I don't know what the Cowboys are going to do without Tony Romo and Felix Jones, both of whom will probably miss about three games with injuries. But so far this season, the Cowboys don't seem like an "elevate their play" kind of team.
This year's best example of a team that has fallen apart in the face of adversity is the New England Patriots. They're 3-2, so it's not like they've suddenly the Lions, but this is a very, very different team than we saw last season. A big part of that is just the difference between Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. It is obvious that the coaching staff has no faith in Cassel. They won't let him throw deep, and he looks really uncomfortable out there. On Sunday night against San Diego, Cassel kept trying to run, but this guy is not Michael Vick — it was a panic thing.
As unimpressive as Cassel has been, the problem is bigger than just the difference between him and Brady. The offensive line, so impressive last year, has been overwhelmed. Center Dan Koppen and guard Logan Mankins, both Pro Bowlers a year ago, are not playing well. The defense looks very ordinary. They're near the bottom of the league in both sacks and opponents' passer rating. And you know the Patriots are in trouble when they get blown out by the Chargers, a team whom they've owned for the past few seasons.
Are there injuries we don't know about? Did some players get old overnight? Did Brady secretly suit up on defense last year? Or has this team just lost its mojo and given up when presented with a real problem?
As we move on to the power rankings, please be patient with me this week. Sunday was a power rankings nightmare. Not including byes, all of the 1st-8th teams lost, and all of the 9th-15th teams won. Part of that is my fault: certain teams were too high (Chicago and Denver) or too low (Buffalo and Arizona). Part of it was just a crazy week with a lot of upsets, probably including some flukes. But the result is that I now think all 15 of those teams are exactly as good as each other, and it may take a week or two to get all of them sorted out. If you think someone is too high or too low, I probably agree with you. But we don't roll with ties here, so some teams are getting a leap of faith or the benefit of the doubt. Anyway, brackets show last week's rank.
1. Tennessee Titans [3] — Number one by attrition. This week, turnovers sunk a number of contending teams: the Giants (-3), Washington (-2), Carolina (-3), Denver (-2). The Titans are a league-best +6 in turnovers.
2. New York Giants [1] — Maybe now we can get a week or two off from the bizarre hype that Eli Manning is the best quarterback in football. Eli is 14th in passing yards, t-11th in TDs, t-12th in TD/INT differential, and 13th in passer rating. He's an average QB! Tony Kornheiser on Monday night: "Nobody says Rivers and Roethlisberger are better than Eli any more." Let me officially correct that for you, Tony. Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are better than Eli Manning.
Really, though, Tony's missing the point — to get Manning, the Giants traded away not only Rivers, but also the draft picks that became Pro Bowlers Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding. A football fan would know this.
3. Washington Redskins [2] — The defense did its job, holding St. Louis to 200 yards, 8 first downs, and 3.7 yards per play. Those are terrific numbers. Washington lost because of its offense (3 fumbles lost) and special teams (2 big returns allowed). I'm going to let Clinton Portis finish this one: "We overlooked a team that came here ready to play."
4. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — The defense is very good, but I really worry about their offense. Pittsburgh's offense is ranked 26th, behind teams like Baltimore and Oakland, whose offenses are punchlines. There are two basic problems: way too many sacks (3.8 per game, 4th-worst in NFL), and a substandard rushing attack (20th in yards, 22nd in average). Injuries are an issue.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [9] — Won four of their last five, with the loss by a field goal at Denver. They have a tough strength of schedule, too: Tampa hasn't played anyone with a losing record. Jeff Garcia (85.8 passer rating) should keep the starting job over Brian Griese (64.6) unless he gets hurt.
6. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — The Titans and Giants have the two best point differentials in the league. Third place is a tie between the Eagles and Buccaneers (+44). It's true that the Eagles padded that number against a couple of pretty bad teams (+49 vs. the Rams and 49ers), but they're also about even (-5) against a murderer's row of Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago. The Eagles are about as good as the top-10 teams they've faced, and they're way better than the bad teams they've played against.
7. San Diego Chargers [11] — Three wins in their last four games, all by double-digits. Sunday night was probably the best game of Philip Rivers' career, and he was classy in postgame interviews, deflecting praise to his receivers and linemen without trash-talking the Patriots. It was a welcome change for a player who has been hot-headed and immature in the past. If Rivers can keep this up — both his passing and his temperament — the Chargers will be a serious threat in the AFC.
8. Arizona Cardinals [17] — Here is a brief list of things that make people losers: canceling dates to play Warcraft; drinking cough syrup if you don't have a cold; prevent defense; photoshopping your head onto a picture of Flavor Flav; trying to ice opposing kickers. Ken Whisenhunt nearly cost his team a big win with one of those pathetic last-second timeouts before a field goal. At best, icing the kicker is usually a waste of time. At worst, it turns wins into losses.
9. Buffalo Bills [13] — They've played three terrible teams and two good ones (Jacksonville and Arizona). They beat Jacksonville and lost to Arizona. So here they are between Jacksonville and Arizona. What could be more fair?
10. Jacksonville Jaguars [14] — Week 6 was great for the AFC South. Houston got its first win of the season, while the Colts and Jaguars both played — for the first time this season — like they did last year. The Jaguars need David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew to be elite players, and this weekend against Denver, they were.
11. Chicago Bears [6] — Here is another list of things that make people losers: jersey-popping; getting your own name tattooed on yourself; being Joe Buck; cheering injuries; squib kicks. The Bears cost themselves a game by doing one of these things, and it wasn't the tattoo one. Jerious Norwood is averaging 29 yards on kick returns, and that 85-yarder on Sunday was the longest of his career. The chances that he would run it out past the 44, where Atlanta got the ball after Chicago's squib, were pretty small. Squib kicks nearly always result in good field position for the receiving team; they're a losing strategy. And when you play like losers, you usually lose.
12. Carolina Panthers [4] — At home, they're 3-0 and have outscored opponents 78-26. On the road, they're 1-2 and have been outscored 71-39. That's a point differential of +52 at home and -32 on the road. Three of their next four games are at home.
13. Denver Broncos [8] — Lost to Jacksonville because of turnovers and their terrible defense, but their avoidance of sacks on offense is becoming really amazing. Jay Cutler has only been sacked twice all season, despite leading the AFC in pass attempts. That's incredible.
14. Dallas Cowboys [5] — They're 4-0 when Marion Barber has at least 50 rushing yards, and 0-2 when he doesn't. However, Barber is fumbling way too often. He has four already this year, which puts him on pace for 10 or 11. One or two fumbles in a season is pretty good for a featured back. Three or four is okay. Five or six is pretty bad, and more than that is terrible. Eleven will probably cost you a starting job.
15. New Orleans Saints [15] — The schedule is not their friend: at Carolina, vs. San Diego in London, bye, at Atlanta. Will the Saints be favored in any of those? I do think Sean Payton will have his team better-prepared for the London game than the up-and-down Chargers will be.
16. Minnesota Vikings [12] — Six of their first seven drives against Detroit ended in punts. The other one was a lost fumble. The Lions' defense is ranked last in the NFL, and Minnesota couldn't do anything against it. Kevin Williams is not going to have four sacks every week, so the Vikings need to get a lot more out of their offense.
17. Indianapolis Colts [19] — Finally looked like the Colts we've gotten used to seeing in the last five years. Peyton Manning, at the top of his game, is awesome to watch, and Dominic Rhodes was sensational on that highlight-reel run when he broke four or five tackles. The defense also played really well, swarming to the ball. Even Tony Dungy said that the Colts played faster this week.
18. Atlanta Falcons [23] — They're beating bad teams and they're 2-2 against real teams. I'm pretty sure that merits a top-half ranking, but there's no one to move down. This may seem impossible, but there are 18 teams that should be top-16 this week.
19. Baltimore Ravens [16] — On one of the most exciting weekends in regular-season history, CBS stuck with Colts/Ravens until the bitter end. Why not take audiences to Miami/Houston instead of showing the last few minutes of a 31-3 blowout?
20. Cleveland Browns [24] — Finally got the big games they needed out of Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards, but there are plenty of problems to fix, starting with pre-snap penalties and run defense.
21. Green Bay Packers [20] — No running game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads the team in rushing TDs (3). Backup RB Brandon Jackson is next (1). No one else — including starting RB Ryan Grant — has any. If Green Bay can improve its ground attack and run defense, the Packers could win their division.
22. New York Jets [21] — I realize I should write about their win over Cincinnati, but this is important: the Jets have got to stop wearing those New York Titans throwback jerseys. They are the most hideous uniforms I have ever seen on any team in any sport at any level.
23. New England Patriots [18] — Where was the intensity against San Diego? I thought these teams didn't like each other. The only one who showed that was the always-classy Bill Belichick. Why was he calling timeout at the end of the game on Sunday night? Does he have a 20-point play? Or is he just a really, really sore loser?
24. Houston Texans [27] — To understand how good Mario Williams has become, you need to understand how little help he gets from his teammates. So far this season, Williams has six sacks. The rest of his team combined has one. Opponents can really concentrate on trying to stop Williams, but they can't seem to do it.
25. Miami Dolphins [22] — I don't understand why more teams aren't using the Wildcat formation or some variation on it. I was just sure that the Rams or Raiders were going to come out of their bye and use the Wildcat to try and pull an upset. The Raiders even have a player, Darren McFadden, who has experience with the Wild Hog formation that inspired Miami. Memo to Coach Cable: it can't hurt to try at this point.
26. San Francisco 49ers [25] — Outscored 23-0 in the fourth quarter, but you should blame the offense, not the defense. The Eagles had a nice touchdown drive at the beginning of the quarter, but after that they were held to 40 yards and one first down. Philadelphia scored a TD on an interception return and kicked three field goals in that fourth quarter, because they kept getting good field position after interceptions and three-and-outs. J.T. O'Sullivan got off to a nice start this year, but he's had three bad games in a row, with an average passer rating of 54.1.
27. Seattle Seahawks [26] — Charlie Frye had a 53.4 passer rating this weekend. As bad as that seems, it's about the same as Matt Hasselbeck's 57.7 this year. Frye's stats tell you more about Seattle's offense than they do about Frye.
28. St. Louis Rams [31] — I began this column musing about adversity. The word out of St. Louis is that under Scott Linehan, the Rams collapsed when presented with adversity. At the beginning of Sunday's game, Steven Jackson fumbled, leading to an easy touchdown for Washington. Instead of giving up, the Rams persevered, and stole a win from a team that underestimated them. Jim Haslett deserves some credit.
29. Oakland Raiders [28] — JaMarcus Russell has completed 67-of-134 passes, 50%. The last quarterback to start at least 10 games who had a completion percentage of 50% or less was Akili Smith in 2000. The last sub-50% QB to start all 16 games was Marc Wilson in 1985.
30. Cincinnati Bengals [29] — With Carson Palmer, the Bengals are a decent team that's winless against a tough schedule. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, they might or might not be better than the Chiefs.
31. Kansas City Chiefs [30] — When your team is struggling, it's always a good idea to trade your best player.
32. Detroit Lions [32] — The 42-yard interference penalty against Leigh Bodden that set up Minnesota's winning field goal seemed pretty bogus, but I don't think the Lions really did anything Sunday to dissuade me from believing that they're the worst team in the league.
October 14, 2008
Kevin Beane:
Brad,
You’ve clearly undervalued (my team). How can you (actually consider some negative and unflattering factors) instead of (cherry-picking just the positive variables?) You’re a disgrace.
P.S. Cough Syrup (just one regular dose) makes a good sleeping pill substitute with just the slightest most pleasant twinge of a kind of high. I am not a loser.
October 15, 2008
chris fritz:
are you high indy 17 th???????? turn in your remote controll waco