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October 31, 2008

Defense, Not Offense, Wins Championships

I have the privilege of spending the next couple of days in Denver. Aside from all the Yankee hats (doesn't Denver have a baseball team?), the people out here are pretty nice.

And contrary to what I've been told, the late October weather is pretty fantastic. It's been 70 degrees and sunny since I got here, and it's not supposed to change before I leave.

Given my responsibility as a Sports Central columnist, I've been watching the local sportscasts and talking to sports fans in local bars in an attempt to get a feel for what people out here think of the Denver Broncos.

As long as I don't tell them I'm from New England, I get a pretty honest response. The people out here are generally optimistic, but there seems to be an underlying lack of confidence.

It's not because of the offense. They love Jay Cutler. He's not on Elway's level, but nobody's on Elway's level out here. He may, however, be as close as anyone's going to get.

They don't worry about the turnovers, they don't worry about the lack of a great running back, and they aren't all that worried about Brandon Marshall's off-field issues (unless it results in another suspension).

It's when you bring up the defense that they pause.

You don't have to look at stats when judging the Broncos' defense. All you have to do is watch. When they turn the 2008 Patriots into the 2007 Patriots, you know there's a problem.

It's amazing to me that people were calling the Broncos a potential Super Bowl threat earlier this season.

Have we learned nothing from this decade?

In 2000, the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer and a "just stay out of the way" offense.

In 2001, the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl with a not-yet-Tom Brady and a dominating defense.

In 2002, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the Super Bowl after allowing only 196 points, an average of only 12.2 points per game.

In 2003, the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl after giving up only 14 points per game and averaging 1.1 more takeaways than turnovers per game.

In 2004, the New England Patriots won the Super Bowl after giving up only 177 points all season, a ridiculous average of 11.1 points per game.

In 2005, the Pittsburgh Steelers won the Super Bowl after finishing third in point against, and fourth in overall defense.

In 2006, Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts finally got their Super Bowl. Not because Manning changed, but because his defense went from a laughing stock in the regular season to a team that gave up 8, 6, and 10 points on defense (the Bears scored a touchdown on special teams in the Super Bowl) in the playoffs against teams not quarterbacked by Tom Brady.

In 2007, the New York Giants knocked off the greatest offensive team in NFL history in one of the most improbable Super Bowl upsets ever. How? They dominated on defense.

See a pattern?

That's why teams like the Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, and Cardinals (among others) don't interest me this season. Why bother putting effort into teams that have absolutely no shot of achieving any significant playoff success?

Yes, they may be good for a few exciting wins in the regular season, but the formula just doesn't work in the playoffs.

The Titans, Steelers, Giants, and Bucs are far more intriguing come playoff time. There are teams built to win in the regular season and teams built to win in the playoffs.

Every season, people fall in love with the great offensive teams. For a long time it was the Colts. Now it's the Cowboys. Those teams never, ever win Super Bowls. Even last season's Patriots, the best offensive team ever, were beaten by a great defensive team.

The formula isn't simple, but it's well defined. It's been proven over and over again. Yet, for some reason, it's only followed by a handful of NFL teams. Defense over offense, every time. Build the defense first, let the offense come along for the ride.

In other words, don't be the Lions or the Bengals, be the Giants or the Steelers.

Anyway, what's the point of all this?

I pay attention to history. History tells me teams like the Cowboys and Broncos will fail come playoff time.

And barring a major injury or a quarterback switch (no defense is good enough to carry Vince Young), the Tennessee Titans are going to win the Super Bowl.

Sean Crowe writes a column for Sports Central every other Thursday. He also covers the New England Patriots for Examiner.com.

Posted by Sean Crowe at 11:44 AM | Comments (0)

October 30, 2008

It's Finally Sunny in Philadelphia

Somehow, it just made sense. In a city that embraces a flawed symbol such as the Liberty Bell, the Philadelphia Phillies won a championship Wednesday night in a game that had a large and noticeable fracture right in the middle of it. Over time, the epic rain delay that stretched the game for 45 extra hours may very well grow to be as endearing a quirk as that famous Liberty Bell crack, at least for Phillies fans.

Monday night's game appeared to be much like any other potential World Series-clinching contest at home. Crowd a-buzzing, Shane Victorino hit a 2-RBI single early to go ahead and you could sense the fans start to count down the outs in their heads, even with 24 of them still left to count.

The rain began to fall in the third inning. That was okay, the pre-game forecast called for a light rain at some point. Maybe a little rain might even add to the image and the stories for years to come. Oh, how right they were.

Cole Hamels continued to pitch brilliantly, and better yet, he buzzed through innings at a surprising rate. Surely, this was going to be the night.

When the 0-fer brothers, Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria, connected in the fourth inning via a double and a single to cut the lead to 2-1, the fans suddenly had to come back down to earth and realized this wouldn't be easy.

By the fifth inning, the rain had created plays like the pop up that made Jimmy Rollins do everything but figure eights running around in a vain attempt to make the catch. (I thought umpire Tim Tschida said later on that they had prevented the game from becoming comical. Did he see this play?) And yet the Phillies, poised to wear the championship crown, responded as such. Chase Utley fielded a ground ball and quickly tagged runner Rocco Baldelli passing by a moment later and then fired to first for a double play. Yeah, this team was ready.

Mother nature, however, was not. Commercial breaks between innings begat more commercial breaks as frantic attempts to clean and dry up the field took place again and again through the fifth and sixth. And yet Hamels continued to make short work of the Rays.

That is until the sixth, when a 2-out B.J. Upton ground ball that would have normally been chewed up by shortstop Jimmy Rollins and spat out perfectly to first base went off the heel of his glove as he was moving to his left. On a dry field, perhaps that doesn't happen. Upton then decided he was going to cross the moat that had formed on the basepaths and steal second base anyway. This proved to be frighteningly easy.

While speculation began that the game might be called and the Phillies could possibly win a shortened series-clincher (thankfully, the Commissioner made it clear there was no way that was going to happen), Carlos Pena lined an RBI single into left that, for that moment, saved the season in the minds of the Rays players. Pena and Upton certainly celebrated the moment as if they had just tied it up in the ninth rather than the sixth.

Finally, the tarp came out, and the debacle, the second-guessing, and the panicking began to set in. What in the name of Billy Penn was going on here? Baseball fans were forced to learn the unique skill of holding one's breath underwater for 45 hours at a time. It wasn't until 8:37 PM EST Wednesday night that an entire city finally came up for air.

Both the Phillies and Rays were expected to hit the ground running in a bizarre three-and-a-half inning contest that better befitted a backyard wiffle ball game format than the finale of the World Series. Sure enough, both teams did just that. With all the reliever and pinch-hitter matchups this invited, they could have just as easily put a table at home plate and had the fans watch managers Jerry Manuel and Joe Maddon play chess for the trophy.

Manuel appeared to put the Rays in check when he inserted Geoff Jenkins in the pitcher's spot to lead off the "game" against Grant Balfour. Jenkins' double was followed by a sac bunt and a bloop single that fell through a cradle in second baseman Akinori Iwamura's arms as he sprinted away from home. Balfour was beaten and left shortly. Advantage Phillies, 3-2.

Manuel chose reliever Ryan Madsen to pitch the 7th, which became a mistake when Rocco Baldelli tied the game with one swing, getting around on an inside fastball to tie the game right back up.

By this point, Game 5, Act II had taken on a different pace and tone than Act I. Hitters dominated from the get-go a game that had previously been a pitcher's duel on Monday night. Cole Hamels had to look on in frustration knowing he was somehow forced out of the clinching game after only having thrown 75 pitches through six innings.

Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell was now the last regular player on either side to be hitless for the series. Pat the Bat finally joined the party leading off the bottom of the seventh with a blast that came within a two-foot screen extension of being a home run. He settled for a double that Victorino would have gladly had an inside-the-park home run on. This was why Phillies fans had dubbed him Pat the Bat in the first place.

This would eventually make a hero out of Pedro Feliz, who came up with the run setup by Burrell on third and one out. Feliz managed to line one back through the box against nasty reliever Chad Bradford, whose submarine delivery comes from so far down under, his knuckles have been known to scratch the mound on occasion. The Phillies led again, and now needed only six outs.

After reliever J.C. Romero escaped the eighth thanks to a double play, closer Brad Lidge took the mound in the ninth with that same 4-3 lead, in pursuit of the title, as well as the perfect closer's season. Dioner Navarro's one-out broken bat looper into right, followed by a Fernando Perez (Navarro's speedier replacement) steal of second base had many Phillies fans dreading the worst again.

Pinch-hitter Ben Zobrist followed by screaming a line-drive to right that was fortunate it didn't give 73-year-old Phillies announcing legend Harry Kalas a heart attack before landing in the glove of well-positioned right fielder Jayson Werth. Lidge was then able to get 2 strikes on pinch-hitter Eric Hinske before finishing him off with his trademark sinker. The feeble swing and miss ensured nothing short of bedlam in downtown Philadelphia. The 2008 Phillies had proven to be the miracle pill to cure the city's 25-year migraine headache.

The upcoming forecast for the City of Brotherly Love in the foreseeable future? 100% chance of reign.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 9

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-6)

Brett Favre threw 3 ugly interceptions last week against the Chiefs, but in true gunslinger fashion, he rebounded to toss the game-winning touchdown pass in the Jets 28-24 win. Favre is tied for the NFL lead in interceptions thrown with 11, and will have to curb his errant ways if the Jets are to beats the Bills in an important division game in the ever-tightening AFC East race.

"Eleven interceptions is a lot," says Favre. "You know, errant passes aren't the only thing in my growing list of inaccuracies. Yeah, I know, some of those passes the Chiefs intercepted looked so bad even I believe the Chiefs may have had some inside information from a former Jets quarterback. Again, I'll reiterate that I did not reveal any information to the Lions in regards to the Packers offense. And there's absolutely no truth to the rumors that I'll make my leading man acting debut in the action flick Lie Hard With a Vengeance. I'm still the same old Brett Favre. I love the game, I love winning, and no injury can keep me from playing, not even this pesky condition in which my nose grows to an unnatural length."

Buffalo lost last week to the Dolphins, and a second straight division lost would put a damper on the Bills AFC East title hopes.

"This organization can't afford another division loss," says Dick Jauron. "But it can afford a three-year contract extension for me, which I fully intend to have amended to include a free Goo Goo Dolls concert for myself, complete with black balloons. As for the Jets, we'll need to establish what I like to call our 'La Marseillaise rushing attack,' which features 'Marshawn, Marshawn' Lynch. Doing so will in turn keep the pressure off Trent Edwards, whose passer rating is much higher on plays when he's not sacked."

Prior to the game, Deanna Favre releases a version of Tammy Wynette's "Stand By Your Man" on the family website, while Brett makes a phone call to his new 'BFF,' Jeff Fisher, whose Titans face the Packers.

Bills win, 27-17.

Detroit @ Chicago (-12½)

The 0-7 Lions head to Chicago to face the 4-3 Bears, who sit atop the NFC North along with the Packers. Earlier this year, in Week 5, the Bears handed the Lions their fourth loss, 34-7, Detroit's first game after general manager Matt Millen's firing.

"You know," says Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli, whose well-thought out Halloween costume outfits him as the cousin of Donald Duck, 'Lame' Duck, "if chronic resister-of-arrests Cedric Benson still played for the Bears, it would be a perfect time to characterize this game as 'Lions, Tasers, and Bears, oh my!' However, since Benson had his sentence commuted to Cincinnati, I can't. And, since, as my coaching acumen proves, cleverness is not a strong trait of mine, I've got nothing. But it's Halloween, and since the Bears are a-knocking, they'll get a 'treat,' which is the luxury of playing the same winless team twice in the span of a month."

The Bears are the NFL's highest-scoring offense, thanks to a 48-point outburst in Week 7's win over the Vikings. Quarterback Kyle Orton is winning over fans in Chicago with his strong play,

"Give me a pair of Ray-Bans, a headband, a spiky hairdo, and a world-class hurdler at wide receiver," says Orton, "and I'd practically be Jim McMahon. Of course, I'd also need a defense that doesn't give up 41 points to a team quarterbacked by Gus Frerotte. If we give up 41 to the Lions, a helicopter won't be the only thing I'm mooning. I do, however, have to compliment the Lions on the Halloween costume. They've been masquerading as a legitimate NFL team all year."

Bears win, 31-10.

Jacksonville @ Cincinnati (+7½)

The 0-8 Bengals' last chance at a win before their bye week will come against the Jaguars, who, with a 3-4 record, are one of the AFC's most disappointing teams. Talk of the Bengals lately has centered around the belief that the team has "quit" on coach Marvin Lewis. Should the Bengals lose, they'll fall to 0-9. Should the Jags fall, they'll drop to 3-5, 4½ games behind the Titans in the AFC South. Either way, one team's season will spiral further downward.

"It's been a tough year for me," says Chad Johnson. "We can't buy a win, and I can't sell a jersey. Even Pete Rose won't bet on us. Although this season is mired in 'cat litter,' we're not 'cat quitters.' Now, I have quit on my efforts to have the 'Ocho Cinco' jersey available this year. It's just not fair for me to buy all of the remaining 'C. Johnson' jerseys and deprive my fans in Third World countries of a chance to wear those jerseys when Reebok unloads all the unsold inventory at season's end."

"Now, I still believe that this team is capable of great things. It may seem far-fetched, but we can go 8-8. And who knows? 8-8 might be good enough for the playoffs. The last I checked, playoff qualification wasn't an octuple-elimination affair, so we've still got a mathematical chance."

The Jaguars are a team that, as the NFL Network's Solomon Wilcots is fond of saying, "is still searching for its identity." After running all over the Broncos in Week 7, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor managed only a combined 53 yards in last week's 23-17 loss to the Browns.

"I can guarantee you this:"says Jack Del Rio. "We won't abandon the running game. We just need much better blocking up front. When your best 'line play' is coming from a wide receiver charged with cocaine possession, you know you're in trouble."

How appropriate. The Bengals will break out their Halloween colors for Sunday's game. Will the orange and black get carved up like a Halloween pumpkin, or are the Jags ripe for the picking? Hey, even the Great Pumpkin shows up once a year. The Bengals? Not so much. Jones-Drew and Taylor combine for 178 on the ground. Jacksonville wins. 28-13.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (-1)

If you think bounties went out with the Eagles/Cowboys rivalries of the late 1980s, well, don't despair, the bounty is back. Last week, before backtracking on his statement, Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs admitted that the Ravens had a "bounty" on Pittsburgh's Hines Ward, payable to anyone who could knock the smile off Ward's face. Even former Ravens head coach Brian Billick chimed in, affirming that bounties do exist in the league.

"Of course Billick should know about bounties," says Ray Lewis. "He had one on his head. And he's got a pretty big noggin. That one was put in place by the entire city of Baltimore. As for the Browns, why would we need a bounty on a player, like Kellen Winslow, for example? Winslow's already got a bounty on him, put there by Cleveland general manager Phil Savage. Of course, now I hear that all is kosher with Winslow and the Browns organization. Heck, I hear they even bought him a brand new motorcycle."

The Browns were whipped by the Ravens in Week 3, and all bounties, wanted posters, and contagious infections aside, Cleveland will be playing for revenge. And, in this case, revenge is a dish served not cold, but slightly "Browned."

Cleveland wins, 16-13. After the game, Lewis is confronted by outlaw lawman Dog The Bounty Hunter, who seeks information on exactly what he has to do to collect the bounty on Ward.

Tampa Bay @ Kansas City (+7½)

Chiefs running back Larry Johnson met with commissioner Roger Goodell on Tuesday to discuss Johnson's spate of off-the-field incidents, which includes several assaults, as well as spitting in a woman's face. Often, when Goodell summons a player, a suspension is inevitable.

"Well, I guess the spit's gonna hit the fan," says Herman Edwards. "I always knew Larry couldn't hold his liquor. Anyway, Goodell is no pushover, but it could be worse. Can you imagine Mike Singletary as commissioner? And Bill Romanowski as his lieutenant in charge of spitting cases? I don't begrudge Larry his right to be pissed off, just as long as that doesn't result in someone being pissed on."

It's never a good sign when Goodell sees a player to the door after a tense meeting while the rhythmic chant of "Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, Good-ell" can be heard over the office loudspeaker.

After last week's 13-9 loss to the Cowboys, the Bucs are now 1-3 on the road, with Arrowhead Stadium's rowdy fans awaiting.

"Arrowhead's always a tough place to play," say Jon Gruden. "First of all, it's a tough stadium to find. Is it in Kansas City, Missouri or Kansas City, Kansas? And the fans are just nuts about their football. Larry Johnson's even got his own 'fight' song. Of course, it doesn't play during games; only when he goes clubbing. That's not to be confused with the 'spit tune' he hears when he's rebuffed by ladies in bars who refuse to dance with NFL running backs who can't average 2 yards a carry."

Tampa wins, 22-17.

Houston @ Minnesota (-4)

What's the worst thing that could happen to the Vikings? Prince starting at quarterback? A cruise ship on Lake Minnetonka in which only the bar is "open?" A Halloween prank in which the Hubert R. Humphrey Metrodome is filled with helium and floats away? All of those would be awful, but not as catastrophic as a situation which lies ahead — all-pro tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams may face a suspension after testing positive for a drug used to mask the use of steroids.

"Hey, don't ask me what's going on," says Brad Childress. "As a Viking head coach, I live by the mantra 'Turn your head and pretend you didn't see that.' Heck, Mike Tice kept a seeing-eye dog around for occasions just like this. And three monkeys who swore they saw, heard, or spoke no evil. I can't keep up with what these guys are putting in their bodies, just as Tice couldn't keep up with what his Vikings were putting their bodies in."

Houston is the hottest 3-4 team in the NFL, having won three in a row. If not for a Week 5 collapse against the Colts, the Texans would be 4-3.

"Hey, we're just like Santonio Holmes or any other league pothead," says Gary Kubiak. "We're 'rolling.' As for the 'water pill' situation, let me address that with a joke. Question: what did the water pill say to the steroid? Answer: 'what steroid?' What did the steroid say to the water pill? 'Nice mask.'"

It looks like the Williamses will play while the NFL hears their appeals. But that shouldn't stop Matt "Houston" Schaub from finding his big target, Andre Johnson, open. Johnson catches 9 balls for 134 yards and a score. Houston wins, 27-24.

Arizona @ St. Louis (-3)

In their 27-23 loss to the Panthers last week, a glaring weakness was exposed in the Cardinals' offense — the lack of a running game. Arizona rushed for only 50 yards against the Panthers, with 30 of that total coming on an Anquan Boldin reverse.

"Hey, don't forget the 17 yards on 7 carries and 1 fumble for Edgerrin James," says Ken Whisenhunt. "He's been begging for a larger role in this offense. Well, he's got it — as a blocker. I know the Edge is upset that he's not getting the carries he saw in Indianapolis. Maybe he regrets leaving, but I can't fault a man for seeking greener pastures, or more golden teeth. Edgerrin has bills to pay, mouths to feed, and dentists to pay. For now, he's got to live with his role as the last line of protection for Kurt Warner."

"But let's be clear. My team will never be mistaken for a running team, just as Kurt Warner will never be mistaken for Brian Warner, better known as Marilyn Manson, who could actually pass for the offspring of Kurt and his wife Brenda, who looks a lot like Max Headroom."

Last week was a tough one for Rams coach Jim Haslett. First, the NFL voided a contract that would have given Haslett the job had the Rams won six games. Then, in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Patriots, New England had only one penalty called on them, which the Rams declined. The Rams sent a tape to the NFL office in search of an explanation for the disparity.

"Can you say 'conspiracy?'" says Haslett. "I've already been contacted by Oliver Stone, conspiracy fanatic and director of the movie W, about making a movie about this situation. He wants to call it WTF?"

"But really, what can I expect? We're the Rams; we're gonna get fleeced."

What's wrong with being a pass-happy team? Not a darn thing, despite what the experts, who extol the virtues of offensive "balance" and "keeping the defense honest." Let's face it, if the Panthers hadn't picked off Warner on that flukey interception of a tipped pass, Arizona would have won and those same experts would be praising the Cards air assault. Give Warner time, and he could find a receiver blindfolded.

Arizona wins, 31-21.

Green Bay @ Tennessee (-5½)

The Titans legitimized their undefeated record with a 31-21 win over the Colts on Monday night, improving to 7-0 after erasing a 14-6 second half deficit. Many analysts had questioned the quality of the Titans after amassing six wins over mostly inferior competition, but the win over Peyton Manning and the sophisticated Indy passing attack quelled those doubts.

"I thought we showed guts, heart, and guile," says Jeff Fisher. "Heck, even Vince Young was wearing his Titans-issue parka with a purpose, and we didn't even have to use the cattle prod to get him to leave the locker room at half time. But don't cry for Vince. He'll get his chance again. I know Kerry Collins is playing lights out, but I'm thinking of jumping on the bandwagon and utilizing some 'Wildcat' formations for Vince. I think Vince would find lots of room to run; I just hope he stops when he gets to the end zone. We've got to handle him delicately. You know his Latin motto: Vini, Vidi, Vince. Loosely translated, it means 'I came, I saw, I'm outta here.'"

While Brett Favre has made headlines, good and bad, in New York, Aaron Rodgers has gone about his business, quietly leading the Packers to a 4-3 record. Up next: a shot at adding the undefeated Titans to his list of conquests.

"I'm proud of what I've done so far," says Rodgers. "But you know what I'm most proud of? I'm an 'A-Rod' and I'm not sleeping with Madonna. That's one conquest I would not want any part of. Not that I've got anything against 50-year-old women. I just have a problem with 50-year-old women who've been sexually active for 39 of those years, not to mention been intimate with the likes of Dennis Rodman, Sean Penn, and Sandra Bernhard, who all border the line between ugly and downright hideous. I'm the Green Bay Packers quarterback. To me, intimacy with 50-year-old women entails accepting baked goods from those particular women."

The Titans handled Manning without utilizing the blitz, instead opting to drop seven defenders in coverage and force Manning to throw into what was usually a tight space. Expect them to employ a similar strategy against Rodgers.

Titans win, 26-23.

Miami @ Denver (-3)

With two sacks last Sunday, Miami linebacker Joey Porter has 10½ after seven games, putting him on pace for 24 this season, which would break Michael Strahan's record of 22½ set in 2001. This Sunday, Porter will take his boastful talents to Denver, where he'll unleash his wrath on Denver's narcissistic quarterback, Jay Culter, and narcissistic wide receiver, Brandon Marshall, and their equally narcissistic head coach, Mike Shanahan.

"Wow! That's a lot of 'narcissistic' on one team," says Porter. "Did they catch it from Kellen Winslow? Anyway, Cutler, Marshall, and Shanahan are Rocky Mountain 'high' on themselves. They've obviously mistaken 'altitude' for 'attitude.' Well, the air is thin, and they suck (wind). I'll be like a pit bull coming after them. And you know what happens when a Joey Porter pit bull, not to be mistaken for a Jerry Porter miniature dachshund, goes after a horse."

After a stirring rendition of The Star Spangled Banner by the Cheater Girls, Porter is incensed when he is inexplicably flagged for a late hit during the coin toss by referee Ed Hochuli. He takes out his anger on Cutler, sacking him twice, while the Miami running game has its way with the Bronco defense.

Dolphins win, 25-23.

Dallas @ NY Giants (-7)

While the Cowboys' 13-9 win over the Bucs ended Dallas' two-game skid, it did nothing to convince doubters that Dallas can or will return to the form that had many lauding them as the class of the NFL just two weeks into the season. The defending Super Bowl champion Giants will present the Cowboys a true measuring stick

"It wasn't pretty," says Wade Phillips, "but we've stopped the leak. Tony Romo's pinkie is still on the mend, but for now, we've got a finger in the dike."

"Don't move it," says Jerry Jones, who, when he's not patrolling the Cowboy sideline, retreats to the damp, cavernous dwelling he shares with the other Sleestaks, "or her. We're still trying to determine who will start at quarterback for us. We understand that Brad Johnson's limitations are limitless. He can't see downfield, much less throw downfield."

After last week's 21-14 win over the Steelers, the Giants seem fully capable of defending their Super Bowl title. And Eli Manning can be steady even in the face of a fearsome defense like the Steelers.'

"But he's got to work on his poker face," says Tom Coughlin. "How the heck can he allow a Steeler to read his lips on a play call? That's inexcusable. One would think that the brother of Peyton Manning would be well-schooled in the art of the decoy, and spout endless gibberish at the line of scrimmage that sounds like a play-call, but is in fact nothing more than pillow talk. Of course, you could tell the Cowboys what you intended to run every time and they probably couldn't stop it."

A loss to the Giants won't necessarily ruin the Cowboys playoff hopes. However, a lopsided loss might have that effect. The Cowboys come to play, but the Giants prevail, 28-23.

Atlanta @ Oakland (+3)

Halloween is an odd time to be in Oakland. Sometimes, it's hard to tell a trick-or-treater from a Sunday afternoon Raider fan. Heck, even players are sometimes mistaken for others. Just the other day, I believe it was a Sunday, during the Raider game, JaMarcus Russell was mistaken for Nipsy Russell. In addition, you can be sure to find kicker Sebastian Janikowski as his Halloween persona, the infamous villain 'Slipped Mickey.' And, it's often around Halloween when owner Al Davis is actually complimented for looking like a corpse.

"Dead or alive," says Davis, "I've got a job to do. And that's to manage this franchise as only I know how. I don't want to have any regrets. I live every day like it's my last. I've been doing that for going on thirty years now. My motto is 'Seize the day,' or corpse diem in Latin."

Unfortunately, Halloween is not always a joyous occasion for all. Although Tom Cable has been in costume since September 30th as Raiders head coach, he's yet to score any candy at all.

"All I got was a rock," says Cable.

That's known as a "paycheck" to Davis.

The Falcons are 4-3 and well within the playoff hunt in the NFC, and a win in Oakland would keep them a game behind the Panthers in the NFC South. The Falcons have been thriving on the legs of running back Michael Turner, and the youthful quarterback-to-receiver connection of Matt Ryan to Roddy White.

"Youth is served," says Mike Smith. "In today's NFL, that often means some brash young player just got subpoenaed. Or Al Davis fired a coach. Or one of the Vick brothers is canoodling with underage girls. Now, in Atlanta, we won't tolerate negative character issues. Football comes first. Players can go to a strip club; they just have to take their playbooks."

Atlanta wins, 20-19.

Philadelphia @ Seattle (+7)

The Seahawks exploded for 34 points in a 34-13 win at San Francisco last week, improving their record to 2-5, and thereby giving Seattle more 'Ws' than in the name of their homefield, Qwest Field. With Matt Hasselbeck still bothered by back and knee injuries, Mike Holmgren will go with Seneca Wallace at quarterback.

"Matt was in Los Angeles earlier this week to have his back and knee examined by specialists," says Holmgren. "Unfortunately, he wasn't cleared to play, and doctors have diagnosed him with a condition known as 'dead leg.' I'm no doctor, and I don't understand all this fancy-schmancy, mumbo-jumbo, scientific, medical, hocus-pocus doctor speak, but I'm sure I can head on over to Seattle Grace and get McDreamy, McSteamy, McSlutty, or McHomophoby to explain it to me."

Philadelphia's Andy Reid served as an offensive assistant under Holmgren during Holmgren's tenure as head coach in Green Bay. There, Reid was schooled on the West Coast offense that he still favors today.

"Although I live on the East Coast," says Reid, "I'm down with the West Coast offense. No one seems to have a problem with that except for rappers."

While Hasselbeck receives treatment from an acupuncturist, a witch doctor, and a colon specialist, the Eagles, led by 123 total yards and a score from Brian Westbrook, the Eagles win, 23-12.

New England @ Indianapolis (-5½)

Has the balance of power in the AFC shifted so much that the Patriots and Colts aren't even mentioned in the conversation anymore? Whereas in year's past, New England and Indianapolis battled for conference and NFL supremacy, these days it's become a race between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning to admit to having the most procedures done of their respective knees. Not quite as exciting as a snow-covered AFC championship game, but still newsworthy. Sunday night's showdown is practically a must-win game for the Colts, who are 3-4 after Monday night's loss to Tennessee.

"Brady may have three Super Bowl rings and one super model girlfriend," says Manning, "but I've got one advantage on him — I had my surgeries done by competent doctors. I understand Tom had his knee surgery done by doctors in California although the team wanted his surgery done by doctors in Boston. It's created a tense situation at Patriot headquarters. It looks like the Patriots went for a 'cut block' then tried to charge Brady with a 'procedure penalty.'"

As Matt Cassel has gained more comfort running the Patriots offense, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has opened up the playbook, most notably to the pages which list the name "Randy Moss."

"Tom Brady had me at 'hello,'" says Moss."It's taken Matt and I a little longer to find that same comfort with each other. We're from very different places in the country. Matt's from upper crust Southern California, while I'm from the podunk mountains of West Virginia. We don't exactly speak the same English. He speaks the Queen's English, and I drink the Olde English. Somewhere between the two, we found a common ground."

It's obvious. No, not the outcome of the game. The fact that whomever loses can blame it on someone's knee. The Colts need it more, and it never hurts to have Bob Sanders' wild head of hair haphazardly nailing the opposition. Indianapolis wins, 30-28.

Pittsburgh @ Washington (-3)

Is there any reason to believe this game won't be close? Washington's seventh-ranked offense is very potent, but the 'Skins have had trouble all season putting teams away. The Steelers boast the NFL's No. 1-ranked defense, a unit that has repeatedly bailed out an offense that has struggled to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger all season.

"Roethlisberger got knocked down, knocked sideways, and knocked silly," says Mike Tomlin. "I'd go so far as to say he got 'knocked up'; there were New York defenders on top of him all day. Luckily, as is our defense, Big Ben is 'impregnable.'"

"I learned a lot in that game, however. Besides our obvious protection issues, I learned that an ill-advised two-point conversion attempt isn't the only way to give your opponent two points. You can have your deep snapper snap the ball right out of the end zone. Works just as well."

"Have you noticed," says Clinton Portis, the NFL's leading rusher, "that Tomlin always explains his mistakes with the statement 'If I had to do it over, I'd do the same thing?' Talk about not learning from your mistakes. But, it's always fun to have the term 'emergency snapper' in the news. Before the Giants/Pittsburgh game, I always thought of 'emergency snapper' as who you summon if the talent fails to show up for a cruise on Lake Minnetonka."

The Steelers haven't beaten an NFC East team yet. And Jason Campbell hasn't thrown an interception all year. Will you be able to say the same after the game? Check with me after the game.

Redskins win, 22-20.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:09 AM | Comments (2)

October 29, 2008

NBA Offseason Review: West (Pt. 3)

Also see: NBA Offseason Review: West (Pt. 1) | (Pt. 2)

As we prepare to embark upon a new season of NBA competition, several teams have made great strides during the offseason to improve upon there level of talent. But while some have gotten stronger, others are going nowhere fast. Some once great teams are now beginning to fall victim to the natural sports cycle of "talent turnover," which all teams of all sports must inevitably accept as their shared fate. Older players decline, younger ones improve, and departed talent is replaced for better or worse.

It is this cycle that gives us hope for each new season; a chance for us to overtake our rivals and send them plunging perilously towards rebuilding mode; it's the sheer possibility of finally seeing your team turn the proverbial corner (unless, of course, you're a fan of the Hawks, Clippers, or Grizzlies). Find out which teams have dug their own grave this season, who we need to be looking out for, and who is simply treading water. In this three-part series covering the Western Conference, you'll notice that the balance of power is definitely shifting, but you might not like how it's turning out.

WESTERN CONFERENCE PART 3: "THE DECLINING SUPREMACY"

Dallas Mavericks

Quick, right now, would you rather have a 35-year-old Jason Kidd, or Devin Harris coming into his prime and two first round picks? Yeah, me, too.

The Dallas Mavericks have been a great basketball team over the last several years. But last season's acquisition of the once dominant point guard has set them back a notch. The desperate attempt to mold the Mavericks into a new kind of monster didn't pan out well last season. But what's done is done. It's a new year with a couple of fresh faces for this proud franchise, and they seem more focused than ever to get back to the Finals appearance which they left behind only three seasons ago.

Off-court drama involving star forward Josh Howard spiked up again this summer, and along with it came speculation that he might be shipped out of town. Despite his character flaws, the Mavs would have had no trouble finding a taker for Howard. The 28-year-old averaged 20 points and 7 rebounds per game, while trying to adjust to a new point guard last season. In the end, the Mavs did the smart thing, and held on to Howard. Not only is he their second leading scorer, he is their best wing defender, and one of the few Maverick players who are able to run an occasional fastbreak with Jason Kidd.

Being financially hampered, the Mavs weren't able to make any splashy moves during the offseason, but they were able to add a couple of pieces that may end up being key to their success later in the season.

The first order of business was bringing back center DeSagana Diop. Diop got shipped to New Jersey as part of the Kidd trade, and although the Mavs didn't want to lose him, they had to in order to make the numbers work. And after seeing what life was like with Eric Dampier as their only viable option at center, the Mavs quickly offered Diop a five-year, $32 million dollar deal. Now don't get me wrong, the Mavericks need Diop's defense and length in the frontcourt, but that offer seems a tad high for 2 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 block per game. Oh well, the Mavs are used to overpaying their big men, just ask Dampier.

The only other significant addition to the Mavericks was young journeyman Gerald Green, who has been extremely impressive so far this preseason for the team. In fact, Green may be playing his way right into a regular rotation spot at this point. His freakish athleticism and knack for scoring has been a much needed compliment to the roster. His play, along with the continued emergence of power forward Brandon Bass, will be crucial to the team's title hopes this year.

The Dallas Mavericks will no doubt be in the playoffs, and if they play their cards just right, and come together as a team with new chemistry, they may be battling it out with someone in the Western Conference Finals this year. But frankly, I think it may be a little too much to ask out of this group under new coach Rick Carlisle. Things may look brighter next season when Kidd and Jerry Stackhouse's contract (a combined $28 million dollars) comes of the books, allowing them to be resigned for cheaper and possibly allowing for another piece to be added to their puzzle. But as for this season, the Mavs are only going to go as far as Jason Kidd's 35-year-old legs can take them. Scary, isn't it?

Phoenix Suns

Like the Mavericks, the Suns also made a desperation move last season, and traded for the one and only Shaquille O'Neal. While I by no means was a fan of the Shaq trade, I understood it more than the Kidd trade for the Mavericks. The Mavericks had a great group of core players that were still in their prime and trying to get over the hump. That ship sailed for the Suns a couple years ago.

New GM Steve Kerr knew that the team's window was closing fast, and it was apparent after several exciting seasons that the nucleus as it was wasn't going to be able to win a championship. So he did what he felt he had to do and brought in "The Big Cactus." In hindsight, the Suns actually made out great in this deal. Not only did they swap Shaq for a declining Shawn Marion, but they dumped Marcus Banks and his horrible contract, as well. And although Shaq's play is steadily declining also, his contract is up after next season, after which he will retire. Marion, on the other hand, doesn't seem to realize that he's not quite as good as he used to be, and he wants a max contract at the end of this season.

While Shaq is only a shadow of what he once was, he's nonetheless a huge presence on the court, and still demands attention when healthy. Most notably, his game has helped Amare Stoudemire's game take off from what it was before, which is really saying something.

With the current roster the Suns have put together, I actually think they have enough to be a real threat in the West this year. Steve Kerr has done a nice job this offseason considering what room he had to work with. Going into this summer, everyone knew the three biggest weak points on the Suns roster: depth in the front court, depth at point guard, and a solid wing defender. Well, that's no longer the case anymore after Kerr set out to fill all three of those key needs.

Initially, the Suns acquired their needs by making two smart draft night choices. They first snagged big man Robin Lopez with the 15th overall selection. Lopez doesn't have the offensive repertoire that his brother, Brook, does, but he has a tough defensive mindset and a willingness to rebound that his brother doesn't quite have. His ability to contribute meaningful minutes when Shaq is out of the lineup will be important this year and the next.

In the second round, the Suns were able to acquire point guard Goran Dragic from Slovenia (through San Antonio). Dragic scared some teams off prior to the draft due to his contractual obligations in Europe, but after long negotiations this summer, the Suns were able to secure Dragic with a three-year deal. Dragic is known for being a big, tough point guard who plays good defense and excels in penetrating to the basket. A nice compliment to Steve Nash, you might say. He still needs to work on his shooting ability, but the Suns may have just found their eventual replacement for Nash.

The Suns didn't make many free agent additions this offseason, but they did make one under the radar signing that looks like it is going to be paying off big time. Matt Barnes had a break out year in Golden State two seasons ago, but injuries and a lack of team chemistry hampered his play the next year, and before he knew it, he was a free agent without a team. Looking to redeem himself this season, the Suns were able to sign Barnes for a price that he's already proven this preseason is below his value. A lengthy small forward, Barnes is known for his good defense, energy, and solid all-around game.

The Phoenix Suns will definitely make things interesting this season, and have legitimate title hopes once again. They may not be the same "run-and-gun" Suns that you're used to, but they're still talented, and some would say built more toward postseason success, rather than the regular season highlight reel. Health, as always, will be key in determining just how far they go. If they can keep the two cornerstones of the team, Shaq and Nash, fresh and productive for the duration, they're going to be one tough rival.

San Antonio Spurs

It's an odd year for the San Antonio Spurs, and if history means anything, they'll be right back there in the finals at season's end. Of course one could also say if history means anything, the Spurs will have trouble keeping their main parts fresh for the duration of the season. Let's face it, these Spurs aren't spring chickens anymore. With the bulk of the Spurs rotation in their early- to late-30s, the game no doubt has begun to take its toll on their bodies. However, with age comes experience, and experience is perhaps the best attribute a basketball team can have, although there are definitely a few younger, more athletic teams on the rise this year who would argue that you don't need experience to be successful (just look at Barack Obama).

Nonetheless, it's the Spurs' experience and team chemistry that make them so great every year, so they rightly decided to keep a couple of their parts in tact by resigning Kurt Thomas and Michael Finley this offseason. Both veteran players are closing out their careers and were able to be brought back for a fair price tag. Neither of them are flashy at all at this point in their careers, but they're dependable, solid players. They both know their roles on the team, and they perform their roles well.

After initially trying and failing to sign Corey Maggette, the Spurs settled on free agent combo guard Roger Mason, Jr., recently with the Washington Wizards, as their main offseason newcomer. Mason does provide some fresh legs and a consistent outside shot to the Spurs' arsenal this season, both of which are needs, but he doesn't have the ability to create shots for himself and others, which is what the team really wanted to bring in this summer.

The Spurs pulled off a surprise pick in the draft with their first round selection of George Hill out of Summit League powerhouse IUPUI. Hill is a bit of a combo guard, as well, who put up big numbers at IUPUI. The Spurs are hoping he can be molded into a solid point guard and eventually be a nice compliment to Tony Parker.

2007 first round pick Tiago Splitter would have been an outstanding addition to the roster this season, but with the Spurs being bound to the rookie pay scale, Splitter opted for the bigger bucks overseas. Now the one year of waiting for their young energetic big man has turned into several, as he is locked into his contract for the next few years.

All in all, the Spurs weren't exactly wheeling and dealing this offseason, but they got what they could, and in typical Spurs fashion, added a few solid role players who will fit in nicely around Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Parker. However, their inability to pick up another impact player who's able to take some of the stress and minutes away from these three has to be worrisome for Spurs fans (especially with Ginobili already expected to be out the first month of the season due to injury). If they don't start finding ways to add significant players to the mix soon, they may find themselves in full scale rebuilding mode a couple years down the road. But for now, they're still one of the elite teams to beat, and if they can continue being clutch on offense to go along with their great defensive effort, they may be able to bring one more title to San Antonio.

The Rest

Everyone else in the Western Conference I regard as being in rebuilding mode with no real hope of postseason success. Sports are cyclical, however, and don't be surprised to see the Western Conference landscape change dramatically over the next few years. The weak become strong, the lousy become great, and the inexperienced become President. See, anything's possible. I do want to give a quick shout-out to a few teams who are heading in the right direction, however. The Kings, Timberwolves, and Thunder are three fun teams to keep an eye on at this point, and in a couple of years, we could all be watching them in the playoffs.

Posted by Kenneth Dean at 11:38 AM | Comments (0)

An English Perspective on the NFL

Sunday brought about the second NFL International Series game to be staged in London, a game in stark contrast to its predecessor last year. A year ago, a rain-soaked Wembley played host to a tight battle between the best and the worst that the NFL had to offer last season. As a result, it's clear how the NFL should've marketed the proposition of playing in London to NFL teams. Quite simply, all they need to say is, "We guarantee you the Super Bowl or the upcoming first-round draft pick." For the record, it's very unlikely to play out like that this year.

After last year's game many pundits were cynical of the quality of the game, probably because the Giants and the Dolphins only managed to muster up 23 points between them. However, it is to my understanding that the International Series games are to help promote the game outside of America. So let me tell you, as an Englishman, we love nothing more than our sportsman battling for the smallest margins in a game that could swing either way.

Nevertheless, the 2008 London game demonstrated the offensive prowess of two of the finest teams in the NFL. In an enthralling matchup, the New Orleans Saints narrowly defeated the San Diego Chargers by a score of 37-32. Therefore, they scored 69 points, three times more points than were scored in last year's London game. Will this outcome please the NFL? Probably. This year's game was clearly the perfect advertisement for offense, while last year's was an advertisement for British weather. Maybe that is why I preferred last year's encounter.

Regardless of what happens on the field, does the NFL have to stage games abroad? Well, since I live in the UK, I can safely say that American football is a big deal over here. Ever since the NFL aired on British TV back in the late 1980s, the sport has garnered a somewhat cult-like following. More recently, the league's popularity has soared with the help of Sky Digital showing a total of six different live games each week.

Despite so many games British television, Sunday's game was a key event for American football in the UK. For the first time in a little over 10 years, an NFL game was aired live in the evening on terrestrial television. So while hardcore fans flocked to Wembley stadium to witness a piece of history, many Brits will have had their first taste of American football.

What I am trying to say is that I am both for and against these International Series games. Okay, maybe that is not the most conclusive piece of writing you will read this year, but that is how I feel. I am for these games as it allows British people to attend a regular season NFL game without having to fork out the cash to fly across the pond. As well as that, new fans of the game are undoubtedly created.

So that's the positive but the negative is a far more serious issue. While I agree that gaining a bigger fan base is a good thing, so is a fair season. In order for these games to take place, one team must relinquish one of their home games for the season, putting them at a disadvantage when compared to other teams.

No matter what your opinion of the International Series games is, it appears that you may just have to get used to them. It seems that NFL games abroad are going to become a regular fixture on the American football calendar. If indeed there is another regular season game overseas next year, I implore the NFL to forget about the UK and give the game to a far more deserving country.

It's about time that Germany had its chance to shine. American football is very big business in Germany; in fact by the time NFL Europa folded, five of the six teams were based in Germany. Perhaps more amazingly, all five German teams saw an increase in attendance in the league's final year in operation. What further proof could be needed to showcase the Germans' thirst for American football?

Unlike many other European leagues, the German Football League thrives with the season culminating with the German Bowl that is attended by around 20,000 people. It would be a real surprise to see that many fans turn up for the final in other leagues around Europe.

Germany is full of American football fans, but that is not the only reason why the NFL should pay a visit. Germany, unlike the UK, is part of mainland Europe, meaning that access to the game would be made slightly easier for inhabitants of other countries in mainland Europe. After all, American football has a strong following in countries such as the Netherlands and Spain.

The NFL's venture into Germany could be complete because the country contains numerous stadiums that would be sufficient to host such an event. The Signal Iduna Park stadium in Dortmund, the Olympiastadion in Berlin, and the Allianz Arena in Munich are all capable of holding 70,000+ people. Therefore, they are all prime candidates to stage an NFL game at some point in the future.

As this article draws to a close, it's time to raise your glass to the NFL for staging regular season games abroad. It's time to raise your glass to the teams that were willing to make an extra special journey for the fans across the pond. And finally, it's time to raise your glass to a regular season game in Germany!

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 11:22 AM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 33

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's day in Atlanta started with an early pit lane speeding penalty, but with his usual late-race surge, boosted by a four-tire pit stop 12 laps from the end, the points leader finished second. Johnson now leads Carl Edwards, who won the race, by 183 points.

"Hey, I was kind of surprised I was behind Carl, too," says Johnson. "It's funny that he didn't see me in his rear-view mirror. I know when I stand atop the standings and look out my rear-view mirror, I can't see a darn thing for that 183 points blocking the view."

2. Carl Edwards — Edwards took the lead with 15 laps to go in Atlanta and held on to win the Pep Boys Auto 500 for his seventh win this year. After his celebratory back flip in victory lane, Edwards had his elation tempered with the news that Jimmie Johnson finished second and Edwards only shaved 15 points off of Johnson's points lead.

"I guess I should look (at the scoring tower)," says Edwards, "before I leap."

3. Greg Biffle — Handling issues plagued Biffle and the No. 16 Roush Fenway Ford throughout the day on Sunday, leaving him unable to challenge for a much-needed win. Biffle finished 10th and now sits third in the points, 185 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I'm not out of championship contention yet," says Biffle, "for the 2009 Sprint Cup. And, mathematically, I'm still in the 2008 title hunt as well. No matter how you add it up, for anyone to have a chance to catch Johnson, we're going to have to see the numbers '48' and '43' in the equation."

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished ninth in Atlanta, as handling issues and track position woes left him unable to make a late charge and kept him winless on the year. Gordon did advance one spot in the points to sixth, 312 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I was quite inspired by seeing 'Go 24' written in the sky prior to the race," says Gordon. "However, it was even more disappointing to know that, even with the Lord cheering me on, I still couldn't break my winless streak. What? That was written by a skywriter? Great! My faith in Jesus has been restored, but not my faith in winning."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick battled an ill-handling car all day as the No. 29 team struggled to find the right balance, and was later hit with a pit lane speeding penalty. Harvick still managed to work his way to a 13th-place finish, which improved his point standing to fifth, where he is 307 out of first.

"As long as Carl Edwards is physically nowhere near me," says Harvick, "I'd like to stick my neck out and make a bold prediction: Jimmie Johnson will win the Sprint Cup title. And the only choking Edwards will be doing is adjusting the choke on his lawn mower."

6. Jeff Burton — Burton suffered front-end damage when he slammed the slowing No. 22 Caterpillar car of Dave Blaney on lap 302, triggering a multi-car crash. He remained on the lead lap and finished a disappointing 18th, which dropped him from third to fourth in the points, where he trails Jimmie Johnson by 218.

"Trust me," says Burton, "I'd much rather hit a bird than the car of Dave Blaney. Apparently, I just couldn't wait to get into that Caterpillar sponsorship."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth was fast in both of Saturday's practice sessions and led a race-high 128 laps on Sunday, but three late-race cautions shackled his chances of winning. The No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford was quick in clean air, but lost the lead to Denny Hamlin and never could challenge for the win thereafter. Kenseth's third top-five finish of the Chase moved him up one spot to ninth, 413 out of first.

"These new cars run best in clean air," says Kenseth. "I'd go so far as to say Michael Waltrip could even hold a lead if he was running up front. Sometimes, however, 'air' is all it takes for Waltrip to have a spin."

8. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin registered his strongest result of the Chase, leading 56 laps in Atlanta and finishing third in the Pep Boys Auto 500. Hamlin now has back-to-back top-fives, and is currently 11th in the points, 425 out of first.

"Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are 8th, 11th, and 12th in the points," says Hamlin. "When the Chase started, the prevailing sentiment for JGR was that anything other than first would be a disappointment. Now that's changed. It's anything but last in the points would be a victory."

9. Tony Stewart — Like many other drivers, Stewart wrestled with handling issues on the abrasive Atlanta Motor Speedway track. After a day's worth of adjustments that just didn't work, Stewart ended a tough day at the track with a 17th, which kept him eighth in the points, 401 out of first.

"Unlike my success fishing for floozies after races at my hauler," says Stewart, "we just couldn't find that 'race trim.'"

10. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer and Juan Montoya made contact during a late-race pit stop, a setback that exacerbated the already difficult handling of the No. 07 Jack Daniels Chevrolet. Bowyer finished 20th, his worst result of the Chase, and fell two places to seventh in the point standings.

"It's never good to have a Colombian angry with you," says Bowyer. "Sure, I may have caused some harm to his car, but JPM needs to chill out. As long as I didn't damage the 'merchandise,' everything should be cool. The last thing I want to do is change the perception that Jack and Coke mix well together."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:06 AM | Comments (0)

October 28, 2008

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* I know lots of people want the Giants to be the best team in the NFL, but let's show a little respect to Tennessee. They're undefeated, they've outscored opponents by a league-best 93 points, and on Monday, they beat the Colts while missing one of their best players, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch.

* Was Vince Young wearing headphones on the sidelines? Even guys who aren't in the game should be paying attention, involved in the gameplan, and interacting with teammates. I don't think Young has a future as a Tennessee Titan.

* Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick are absolutely, without a doubt, the worst NFL announcing team I have heard this year. Brennaman has no business doing NFL broadcasts.

* Watch out for Philadelphia in the NFC East. The other three teams in that division are starting to have serious injury problems.

* If you are not directly affiliated with the Dallas Cowboys, stop saying, "How 'bout dem Cowboys!" Especially if you're posing as a professional sportscaster.

***

This week's marquee matchup was Giants (5-1) at Steelers (5-1), a closely contested game that concluded with the Giants winning 21-14. The Giants deserved to win, but the Steelers could have and probably should have won.

New York deserves plenty of credit, but in this space I'm going to focus on what Pittsburgh did wrong. First of all, I don't blame the offensive line for all those sacks and knockdowns of Ben Roethlisberger. I blame Ben. An NFL quarterback can't expect his offensive line to give him 10 seconds to throw the ball. That's especially true when (a) your offensive line has been struggling; (b) you're playing a team with a good pass-rush; and (c) your offensive scheme is designed for quick passes.

The Steelers used a lot of spread formations, with extra receivers instead of extra blockers, and they used a lot of three-step drops. Three-step drops are quick passing plays. The ball is supposed to leave the QB's hand as soon as his back foot hits on that third step. On several key plays near the end of the game, the Steelers were counting on RB Mewelde Moore, who weighs barely 200 pounds, to block oncoming pass rushers. I saw Moore take on Mathias Kiwanuka — who has six inches and 60 pounds on Moore — and do a decent job, but the quarterback has to know the situation as far as his protection is concerned, and Big Ben knew he didn't have a lot of time to throw. He just chose to take the hits instead of throwing the ball away. I don't know if he was trying to pad his passing stats by not throwing incompletions, or he just made bad decisions for some reason, but it was the worst game I've ever seen him play.

I also place a lot of blame with Pittsburgh's coaching staff. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians should have adjusted his blocking schemes, and he should have run more than 20 times in a game that Pittsburgh led for 40 minutes. Even more than Arians and the offensive staff, though, I blame the defensive coaches. Playing against a mistake-prone quarterback, the Steelers never generated any pressure. They finished the game with no sacks and no interceptions. How do you beat the Giants? You get Eli Manning to make mistakes. Pittsburgh played a very conservative game on defense, and never got any big plays other than the goal-line stand in the first quarter.

The Giants brought pressure on third down. Four of their 5 sacks and 3 of their 4 interceptions came on third downs for Pittsburgh, who converted only one of their 10 third downs. The Steelers kept everything in front of them and didn't take any big chances. It wasn't prevent defense, but it also wasn't the aggressive scheme we're used to seeing from Dick LeBeau, and it served the Steelers very poorly on Sunday. The Giants kept getting great field position because of their aggressive defense, starting four drives in Pittsburgh territory. The Steelers started one drive in Giants territory, at the 49-yard line.

The Giants deserved to win, because their coaches and quarterback were smarter, but the Steelers have no excuse for losing that game.

Let's get to the power rankings. Brackets show previous rank.

1. Tennessee Titans [1] — Kerry Collins has only been sacked once all season. Every other quarterback with more than 1,000 passing yards has been taken down at least four times. Part of that is veteran savvy from Collins, but Tennessee's offensive line deserves a lot of credit, too. After the game on Monday night, Collins praised the line by noting that despite his season-high 37 passes, "I got hit twice."

2. New York Giants [4] — This team is really going to miss Steve Spagnuolo when he's a head coach somewhere else next year. I don't think it's a coincidence that Spags and his old mentor, Jim Johnson of Philadelphia, are the two defensive coordinators who have gotten Big Ben to swallow his helmet this year. Roethlisberger was a wreck by the end of Sunday's game, and a lot of that comes back to Spagnuolo.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers [3] — On top of the mental errors from Big Ben and the coaching staff, the Steelers can also look at injuries to explain why they lost in Week 8. The obvious one was long snapper Greg Warren, but they also lost DB Ryan Clark in the fourth quarter. Clark, having his best game of the season, made a great play to break up a long completion, but he was injured and didn't return. The Giants picked up 96 yards and 12 points in the 12 minutes after Clark's injury; they had 186 yards and 9 points in the 48 minutes before it.

4. Carolina Panthers [7] — Four wins in their last five games, but they need to prove themselves on the road. It may sound strange to praise the defense after a game in which they allowed 425 yards, but middle linebacker Jon Beason is having a very good season.

5. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — With Brian Westbrook healthy, this is a very good team. Westbrook is the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL. Even with all the time he's missed (about half of Philly's games), Westbrook is still tied for the second in the league in touchdowns.

6. Washington Redskins [5] — Showed again on Sunday what happens when Santana Moss gets the ball. Washington cannot afford to let Moss be a decoy. He has more receiving TDs than the rest of the team combined, and as good as players like Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley are, Moss is the only real big-play guy on that offense. When Moss has at least 75 receiving yards, Washington is 5-0. When he doesn't, they're 1-2.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [2] — This division is full of homers. The NFC South is a combined 15-1 at home, but 3-11 on the road. At home, Tampa Bay is 4-0 against teams that have been terrific in the rest of their games (16-9). On the road, the Bucs are 1-3 against teams that have been okay in the rest of their games (14-12).

8. Arizona Cardinals [8] — Average more than 38 pass attempts per game, most in the NFL. I know the Cardinals average under 3.3 yards per carry (worst in NFL), but you can't just give up on the run. Why not give J.J. Arrington more carries and see if he can do anything? They've got to figure out a way to run the ball.

9. Buffalo Bills [9] — I don't bet on NFL games, but I'm always interested to see the pointspreads Vegas comes up with, and in Week 8, the Bills were only favored to beat Miami by one. That's nuts. Buffalo should have been favored by at least four or five, probably more like a touchdown. But somehow, the linesmakers knew that Miami was probably going to win. That -1 spread was a trap for the sober, rational people of the world, tempting them into a losing bet. I think this game was a fluke, and Buffalo will be fine. I suspect they'll beat the Jets by double-digits in Week 9.

10. New Orleans Saints [16] — Gave the British fans at Wembley Stadium a taste of offensive fireworks. Drew Brees had another fantastic game, but that -26 yard rush on his intentional safety is going to put a real dent in Brees' running stats.

11. Chicago Bears [13] — Kyle Orton's high level of play has to be one of the biggest surprises of the 2008 season. Orton has a better passer rating than Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger, and the Bears are averaging 28 points per game, second-best in the NFL.

12. Green Bay Packers [14] — Last year, Ryan Grant averaged over 100 rushing yards per game in the second half of the season, with a 5.1 average per carry. This season, Grant is averaging 66 yards per game with 3.4 per carry. I don't think Green Bay can win the NFC North if the ground game doesn't improve.

13. Atlanta Falcons [12] — John Abraham has really slowed down. After notching 6 sacks in the first three games, he has only 1 sack in the last four. Roddy White, though, just keeps getting better. He has three straight 100-yard receiving games, and ranks third in the NFL in receiving yards.

14. Dallas Cowboys [19] — Head coach Wade Phillips was more involved in the defense this week, and Dallas responded with its best defensive performance of the year. The biggest concern right now might be pass protection. The offensive line looked fantastic in the first three games, but since then, tackles Flozell Adams and Marc Colombo have not played well.

15. Baltimore Ravens [18] — Terrell Suggs is having a terrific season. With all due respect to Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, Suggs is Baltimore's best defensive player. But Suggs needs to be more careful about what he says to the media. Last week, Suggs brought up "bounties" on Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall and Hines Ward, and he suggested that Troy Smith should be starting ahead of Joe Flacco at QB. That's the kind of thing you probably want to keep in-house.

16. Cleveland Browns [21] — Won three of their last four, with the loss at Washington. Nose tackle Shaun Rogers, who was plagued by inconsistency and fatness in Detroit, is still pretty fat, but has been playing at a very high level the last few weeks. Against the Jaguars, Rogers led the Browns in tackles, picked up his team-leading fourth sack, and blocked a field goal. AFC Pro Bowl DTs: Albert Haynesworth, Kris Jenkins, and Rogers.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [10] — Inability to run the ball is killing them. Their rushing statistics don't reflect how ineffective Jacksonville has been on the ground, because David Garrard leads all QBs in rushing. This team was built to run the ball, and that's how it was successful last season. Its failure to establish a running game this year is why the Jaguars are 3-4.

18. New England Patriots [20] — I'm not impressed by their 5-2 record. Both teams they've lost to are 3-4, and both losses were blowouts (combined 68-23). The best team they've beaten is 4-3 Denver, but the Broncos are terrible on the road, and they were playing with a lot of injuries. New England's other wins were uninspiring single-digit victories over the Chiefs, Jets, 49ers, and Rams. If the Pats win their next two games (at Colts, vs. Bills), I'll take them seriously.

19. Indianapolis Colts [15] — The good news is this: the offensive line is getting better. Against Tennessee, the Colts ran the ball effectively (4.4 yards per carry) and protected Peyton Manning against the league's eighth-ranked pass rush. After 9 sacks in the first five games, the Colts have gone two straight games without getting sacked.

20. San Diego Chargers [11] — Lack of discipline really hurt them against New Orleans. The Chargers committed 14 penalties for 134 yards and 6 first downs. 134 yards and 6 first downs! That's practically giving the game away. Know what else is practically giving the game away? Having San Diego's defense.

21. Houston Texans [23] — Matt Schaub got off to a slow start this year, but the first two games were at Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Since then, he's 101-of-141 (71.6%) for 1,233 yards (308/gm), with 9 TDs and 2 INT (113.6 rating). Turns out this guy does pretty well when he 's not facing the two best defenses in the NFL.

22. Denver Broncos [17] — They've lost three of their last four, but the Broncos are ranked here mostly because of injuries. This defense was bad before Champ Bailey got hurt. Injuries have also slowed down the offense: after averaging 38 points in their first three games, the Broncos haven't scored more than 19 since.

23. Minnesota Vikings [22] — Multiple sources report that the NFL is planning to suspend eight players who used a banned water pill. This pill is taken primarily for weight loss, but it is banned because it can also serve as a masking agent to undermine steroid tests. Two of the players who tested positive in this investigation were Minnesota's Pro Bowl DTs, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. If those guys miss four games each, the Vikings are finished.

24. Miami Dolphins [26] — Chad Pennington is having an awfully nice season. Did the Jets do the wrong thing by dumping Pennington for Brett Favre? Certainly Pennington is playing better than Favre, but maybe it was just time for a change in New York. I think it's arguable that the Packers, Jets, and Dolphins are all better because of the Favre trade.

25. St. Louis Rams [24] — Despite its weaknesses, I am a supporter of the Rooney Rule, the policy that an NFL team with a head coaching vacancy must interview at least one minority candidate for the position. What I don't like is when this well-intentioned rule forces sham interviews or negates protections for interim coaches like Jim Haslett. If Mike Singletary does a great job as interim HC, the 49ers can decide to keep him at the end of the season. If Haslett does a great job, the Rams can't keep him without interviewing a minority for the position first. Common sense dictates that the Rooney Rule should be amended, such that if a team opts to keep an interim head coach without interviewing any other candidates, it should be excused from the normal requirement. Keep the rule, but amend it to help interim coaches who earn long-term jobs.

26. New York Jets [25] — In their last three games, the Jets have faced 0-8 Cincinnati, 2-5 Oakland, and 1-6 Kansas City. They beat the Bengals without much trouble, lost to Oakland, and needed a last-minute touchdown to edge the Chiefs. This is easily the worst four-win team in the league.

27. Seattle Seahawks [29] — Let's not get too excited after one win. Look at their remaining schedule and tell me who else they're going to beat. I don't think Seattle will actually finish 2-14, but 4-12 seems realistic.

28. Oakland Raiders [27] — Teams traveling from the West Coast to the Eastern time zone have gotten slaughtered this year, and the Raiders have been hit especially hard. All four of their road games so far have taken them at least two time zones earlier, and they still have remaining trips to Miami and Tampa. The other two road games left are at Denver and San Diego. I see Oakland finishing 1-7 on the road.

29. San Francisco 49ers [28] — In his first three games, J.T. O'Sullivan had a passer rating of 104.6, and the Niners opened 2-1. Since then, the team is 0-5 and O'Sullivan's passer rating is 58.0. He leads the NFL in sacks, fumbles, and interceptions. Going to Shaun Hill is the right move.

30. Kansas City Chiefs [30] — Tamba Hali's sack of Favre was the team's first in a month. Kansas City's defense has only four sacks all season, worst in the NFL. Sadly, KC's run defense (last in NFL) is even worse than its pass defense (28th).

31. Detroit Lions [32] — Competitive in their last three games, losing by 2, 7, and 8 points. They're still bad, but the Lions may be a real NFL team again. Detroit lost its first four games by an average of more than 20 points.

32. Cincinnati Bengals [31] — For the fourth time in the last 18 seasons, they're 0-8. In comparison, during those same 18 years, the Detroit Lions have started 0-8 only once or twice (depending upon whether they lose in Week 9). The Bengals make every other franchise, including Arizona and Oakland, look well-run.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:51 AM | Comments (0)

BCS-Mania!

Much is to be determined in figuring out the full BCS bowl and national championship picture at this time. Having said that, any rabid college football fan worth his or her salt has his/her own ideas on how it will play out. Being one of those aforementioned, I also have my opinions on what will or will not happen as we zip through college football's stretch run.

One caution: the prognostications below are for entertainment purposes only — nobody should be running to Vegas anytime soon using this as their guide — however, if you do decide that this is quality enough fodder to risk you rent on it, remember us little people when you win.

THE CONTENDERS

Below is a listing of the BCS bowl-eligible teams (top 14 in BCS rankings, 9 wins or more) with their current BCS standing and their projected ranking, record and applicable league title. It should be noted (and is later in this article), that the ACC champ and Big East champ will both fall outside of the top 14. According to the BCS rules, automatic berths being given to ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC conference champions is at the discretion of the BCS panel and is reassessed annually. Since I do not have access to this information at this time, I will assume that the Big East team will not be afforded an auto-berth and the ACC champ will, based on past performances of teams from those conferences.

1. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Current BCS ranking: 1 (8-0, 1st in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS ranking: 1 (13-0, Big 12 champ)

Breakdown: A hard fought 28-24 victory over Oklahoma State notwithstanding, the 'Horns seem destined to reach their second title game in four seasons. Having successful navigated through three-quarters of a nasty four-game stretch against top-10 opponents with little blood loss, the only tests that remain are a showdown against undefeated but somewhat overrated Texas Tech and the eventual Big 12 championship game where a rematch versus Mizzou seems likely. Expect UT to win out, but even if with one loss, there is a very strong likelihood that the Austin-based powerhouse will be featured in the National Championship Game.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: BCS National Championship Game

2. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Current BCS Ranking: 2 (8-0, 1st in SEC West)
Projected BCS Ranking: 5 (12-1, loss in SEC title game)

Breakdown: The Tide should roll right through the rest of their regular season, though they do have a tough Nov. 8th matchup at LSU. Convincing victories against Clemson and Georgia and a propensity to do just enough to win the close games give pollsters a great deal of confidence in Nick Saban's crew. Unfortunately, Alabama will have to face the SEC East leader en route to bowl season, which should derail an otherwise magical rejuvenation in 'Bama.

Upcoming losses: Florida (SEC title game)
BCS Bowl: Fiesta Bowl

3. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Current BCS Ranking: 3 (9-0, 1st in Big Ten)
Projected BCS Ranking: 2 (12-0, Big Ten champ)

Breakdown: The 13-6 victory of Ohio State all but locked up the Big Ten title, with only a season-ending game against an overrated Michigan State squad left between themselves and a perfect 2008 campaign. While a season-crushing collapse in one of the Nittany Lions' last three games would not surprise me terribly, it is far more likely that we'll see JoePa's charges finish what they started in earning themselves an improbably berth in the national title tilt.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: BCS National Championship Game

4. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Current BCS Ranking: 4 (7-1, 4th in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS Ranking: 7 (10-2)

Breakdown: Unfortunately for Bob Stoops' Sooner team, the Big 12 was simply loaded in 2008. In most seasons, the explosive offense showcased by OU would be more than enough to carry the team to a spot in the Big 12 title game at the very least. But with both Texas and Oklahoma State in rare form, the Big 12 South was a mine field that left the Oklahoma team beaten and broken. Even worse for OU, BCS rules prohibit more than two teams in the same conference from participating in BCS bowls, which leaves them on the outside looking in.

Upcoming losses: Oklahoma State (11/29)
BCS Bowl: None

5. USC TROJANS

Current BCS Ranking: 5 (6-1, 1st in Pac-10)
Projected BCS Ranking: 4 (11-1, 1st in Pac-10)

Breakdown: How devastating was that loss to Oregon State? The Trojans have outscored their opponents 245-30 in their wins, including 30-plus point destructions of nationally-ranked Oregon and Ohio State. Had USC handled their business in that loss, there is a very strong likelihood that they would be sitting atop the BCS standings with a cake-walk of a schedule down the stretch. While Pete Carroll would certainly have preferred playing in that Miami championship game, he can take heart knowing his Trojan team could have mailed in their season after that disappointing early season loss and they did not.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Rose Bowl

6. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Current BCS Ranking: 6 (7-1, 1st in SEC East)
Projected BCS Ranking: 8 (10-2)

Breakdown: A November 1st showdown with the Florida Gators will, at least by my projections, mean the difference between a third place spot in the final BCS polls or missing the BCS bowl games altogether. The winner of that game will pretty much lock up first in the SEC East, setting up a title game with Alabama, and I fully expect the SEC East leader to wind up winning that title game. The loser will be in the same boat as Oklahoma, as Alabama will receive a BCS bowl invite leaving room for only one more SEC team.

Upcoming losses: Florida (11/1)
BCS Bowl: None

7. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS

Current BCS Ranking: 7 (8-0, 2nd in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS Ranking: 23 (9-3)

Breakdown: Mike Leach's Red Raider team has opened some eyes in 2008, having rolled to an 8-0 start. Sadly, the team still has games against conference power houses Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma and while wins in two of those three games would go a long way toward staking Tech's claim as one of the nation's top teams, a more realistic assessment has them losing at least two if not all three of those contests, dropping them in the rankings significantly. Even though most would see such a late-season collapse as a disappointment, the boys from Lubbock should be optimistic as they better position themselves in recruiting for '09 and beyond.

Upcoming losses: Texas (11/1), Oklahoma State (11/8), Oklahoma (11/22)
BCS Bowl: None

8. FLORIDA GATORS

Current BCS Ranking: 8 (6-1, 2nd in SEC East)
Projected BCS Ranking: 3 (12-1, SEC champ)

Breakdown: After a shocking home loss to Mississippi, it has been all business for Tim Tebow and company. The Gators dismantled LSU and completely obliterated Kentucky in back-to-back wins. While that Nov. 1st game at Georgia looms as a "must-win," you get the feeling that this team is every bit as good as any other in the league, which leaves you scratching your head as to how their coaching staff could have allowed such an unfortunate let down earlier in the year. I am quite certain that Florida will beat the Bulldogs rather handily as will they handle Alabama in the SEC title game, but that loss will ultimately doom them as they wind up winning their bowl game and finishing as the second-ranked team in the land.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Sugar Bowl

9. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

Current BCS Ranking: 9 (7-1, 3rd in Big 12 South)
Projected BCS Ranking: 6 (11-1)

Breakdown: I see this Cowboy team as the best team in the Big 12 not named "Longhorns." They have a strong offense, a great defense, and play a very sound game that translates well to success in big game environments. That they lost by less than a touchdown against a UT squad that was absolutely rolling over anything in its way speaks volumes on just how good this team is. Late season, games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech will tell the final story on the OSU '08 season, but should they win those two games, you have to think they'd be an ecstatic bunch when reviewing their accomplishments.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Sugar Bowl

10. UTAH UTES

Current BCS Ranking: 10 (8-0, 2nd in Mountain West)
Projected BCS Ranking: 12 (11-1)

Breakdown: Please note this next sentence, as you won't hear it often in your lifetime: the Mountain West conference is absolutely stacked with talent this season. BYU was a vogue top-15 pick heading into the season, TCU has trounced everyone they've played and the Utes have rolled through their first eight games with little resistance. Even Air Force has put forth a yeoman's effort in '08. If nothing else, the continued success of these "secondary conference" teams should further the argument for a national playoff system. Alas, Utah will lose their November 6th showdown with TCU leaving them on the outside looking in at the other BCS teams.

Upcoming losses: TCU (11/6)
BCS Bowl: None

11. BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Current BCS Ranking: 11 (7-0, 1st in WAC)
Projected BCS Ranking: 10 (12-0, WAC champ)

Breakdown: Like clockwork, Boise State has put together a near perfect season. Unfortunately the Broncos had a much easier schedule this time around, playing only a single top-25 team (a five-point win at Oregon). This fact will keep them off the radar screen and likely out of a BCS bowl, with TCU earning that honor for the mid-majors; however, with the Big East champ so far down in the rankings this season, they may well secure an at-large bid.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Fiesta Bowl

12. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Current BCS Ranking: 12 (7-2, 3rd in Big Ten)
Projected BCS Ranking: 11 (10-2, 2nd in Big Ten)

Breakdown: Many had the Buckeyes as odds-on favorites for a third straight national title appearance. However, an early-season loss to USC wounded those hopes and this past weekend's disappointment at home against Penn State ended them altogether. Still, a strong finish may get the highly regarded Ohio State team an at-large selection for a rematch with USC in Pasadena, which would not be a total loss for the perennial contenders.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Rose Bowl

13. TCU HORNED FROGS

Current BCS Ranking: 13 (8-1, 1st in Mountain West)
Projected BCS Ranking: 9 (11-1, Mountain West champ)

Breakdown: The only blemish on TCU's record was a 35-10 loss at Oklahoma. That they even scheduled that game should tell you all you need to know about the TCU administration and how committed they are to making the Horned Frogs a prominent force in the college football landscape. This is a good team that will win a title in a good conference and they'll be my sleeper pick to upset a giant in whatever BCS bowl game they get selected to.

Upcoming losses: None
BCS Bowl: Orange Bowl

14. MISSOURI TIGERS

Current BCS Ranking: 14 (6-2, 1st in Big 12 North)
Projected BCS Ranking: 14 (10-3, loss in Big 12 championship)

Breakdown: Missouri is a strong team that fell flat at the wrong time of the season. Granted, they are a far inferior team to the Longhorns, but they should have played a closer game and the loss Oklahoma State was inexcusable for a team fancying themselves as top-10 material. That said, the Big 12 North is weak this season, so they will get their second shot at UT. Should they keep that game competitive, they might get some attention from some of the bigger non-BCS bowls, but they're fate is sealed and they won't be in a BCS game unless they shock the planet with an improbably Big 12 title game win.

Upcoming losses: Texas (Big 12 title game)
BCS Bowl: None

REST OF THE TOP 25

(Not BCS bowl-eligible)

15. FLORIDA STATE
Current: 15 (6-1)
Projected: 24 (9-3)

16. BALL STATE
Current: 16 (8-0)
Projected: 15 (13-0, Mid-American champ)

17. MINNESOTA
Current: 17 (7-1)
Projected: 20 (10-2)

18. TULSA
Current: 18 (7-0)
Projected: 13 (13-0, Conference USA champ)

19. LSU
Current: 19 (5-2)
Projected: 19 (9-3)

20. BYU
Current: 20 (7-1)
Projected: 22 (10-2)

21. MICHIGAN STATE
Current: 21 (7-2)
Projected: Unranked

22. NORTH CAROLINA
Current: 22 (6-2)
Projected: 25 (9-3)

23. SOUTH FLORIDA
Current: 23 (6-2)
Projected: Unranked

24. OREGON
Current: 24 (6-2)
Projected: 18 (10-2)

25. UCONN
Current: 25 (6-2)
Projected: 16 (11-2, Big East champ)

BCS BOWL PROJECTED MATCHUPS

January 1st: Rose Bowl: (12) Ohio State vs. (4) USC
January 1st: Orange Bowl: (17) Maryland vs. (9) TCU
January 2nd: Sugar Bowl: (6) Oklahoma State vs. (3) Florida
January 5th: Fiesta Bowl: (10) Boise State vs. (5) Alabama
January 8th: BCS National Championship Game: (2) Penn State vs. (1) Texas

There you have it! Enjoy the rest of your college football season. It should be full of great games, exciting matchups, and those pesky unexpected surprises.

Oh, and if you aren't in it just for the "entertainment," best of luck to you the rest of the way out!

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:19 AM | Comments (2)

Jankovic Finishes No. 1, But Should She?

The tennis season is just about over. Yes, it seems it ended Labor Day weekend with the U.S. Open, but it has actually been going strong since. The end is near, though, and the first up is the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour season-ending championships in Doha, Qatar.

Just this past week, Serbian Jelena Jankovic assured her No. 1 ranking for the year with a 12-match streak that saw her win titles in Stuttgart, Beijing, and Moscow. Jankovic has qualified for the championships, but doesn't have to win any matches to finish No. 1. Her 63 matches won was the most on tour this season and she is one of the few playes who managed to stay healthy and show up at all of her scheduled tournaments.

There are several of the tennis elite who feel her No. 1 ranking is wrong. Jankovic was the workhorse of the tour, but did not win any of he big four. Jelena did make it to the semis of the Australian and French Opens, the fourth round of Wimbledon, and was a finalist at the U.S. Open, so it's not like she didn't play well when it counted. The pundits say that you should at least win one of the major tournaments to be No. 1. There is something to be said about that.

If you agree with this thought, then No. 1 should go to either Maria Sharapova, Venus Williams, Serena Williams, Ana Ivanovic, or Olympic gold winner Elena Dementieva. Dinara Safina has finished the summer and fall strong, and is the only player on tour who comes close to Jelena's tour finish. But she didn't do well when it counted. Venus took the title in Zurich just last week and is surging, but her performance has been spotty all year and she has missed appearances along he way. Sharapova was done due to injury before the U.S. Open, so it can't be her.

Dementieva didn't perform nearly as well at the majors, and still has no serve, so it is hard to consider her as No. 1. You could argue that Serena should be No. 1, and you have a good argument. She did hit the top slot with the U.S. Open victory, but then faded by not playing enough tournaments after to hold on for the remaining part of the year.

Same for Ana Ivanovic. She peaked at the Australian Open and Roland Garros, then fell to mediocre for the summer and fall. Like Jankovic, she has been a workhorse, but not consistent enough. So that leaves her Serbian compatriot, Jankovic.

No big titles, but in the mix every time. She has performed well at all the majors, getting twice to the semifinals and one final. That is the most consistent performance by any top-10 women's player at the big four this year. She is the only top player to meet her commitment to the tour all year. The inability (or some say desire) of the top players to meet that commitment has been a problem for CEO Larry Scott and the WTA so much that they have changed the rules of the tour for 2009 to try to ensure top player participation.

I am from the old school. Work hard, play hard, be a good sportsman, and you should be rewarded. Be consistent, improve yourself continually, and make the most of what you have. Make a commitment and stick to it. Remember that no one is bigger than the game itself. There is no controversy in my book. Jelena Jankovic is and should be the No. 1 player in 2008 on the WTA Tour.

I confess that I might not be perfectly objective. Three years ago, I sat in the tunnels under Arthur Ashe Stadium interviewing an up-and-coming Serbian player who was all but being ignored as she won match after match. She didn't have a clothing sponsor and barely had a racquet sponsorship. Only one other reporter paid any attention and wanted to interview her. It's nice to see that girl now. Bud Collins and I agreed then. Jelena Jankovic was going to be a top player. Today, she is No. 1.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:04 AM | Comments (1)

October 27, 2008

World Series Update and Hot Stove News

First off, a look at how the World Series has panned out so far. Game 1 was reasonably predictable with Cole Hamels stifling the Rays sufficiently to grind out a 3-2 win. Hamels wasn't at his absolute best, but his composure and intelligence on the mound got him past the nervy, pressing Rays. His opponent, Scott Kazmir, wasn't the same pitcher that held the Red Sox to 2 hits in the ALCS Game 5. He couldn't find the strike zone with any regularity, so much so that a few times along the way it looked like Joe Maddon would lift him.

The Rays bounced back straight out the starting gate in Game 2, behind a walk, a single, a throwing error, and a couple of groundout RBIs. Hardly the heady stuff of the ALCS, but it was enough to get inside the head of Brett Myers, who allowed further runs in the second and fourth.

In Game 3, the Rays were counting on getting to Jamie Moyer, the aged but crafty soft toss pitcher who came into the game with a 13.50 ERA. Instead, the young Tampa hitters were too eager and allowed Moyer to get away with conceding 3 runs, all on outs. Matt Garza looked nervous and a completely different pitcher to the man who dominated the Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS. Still, the Rays could have won it had they had held their nerve late on, but some poor defense and a creaky bullpen put them away.

So Game 4, as is often the case, took on extra proportions, especially for the Rays. Simply put, they had to beat Joe Blanton, by far the weakest pitcher in the Philly rotation, or face the prospect of having to beat Cole Hamels on Monday night to stay in the series.

The Rays were simply dreadful Sunday night. They couldn't hit, especially in the heart of the order, booted balls around the infield, threw everything over the heart of the plate at 85 mph and the manager seemed to completely forget that this game was essentially do-or-die.

Andy Sonnanstine wasn't fooling anyone and he was lucky to have got through three innings with just 2 runs on the board. Inexplicably, Joe Maddon sent him out for the fourth as if this was a regular season game, and the game was effectively over with Ryan Howards' 3-run homer. Sonnanstine came out at the end of the 4th but by then the game was over.

The Phillies have been by far the better team and deserve to win the series. Charlie Manuel, while stubbornly leaving his lefty duo of Utley and Howard following each other in the lineup, has used his bullpen effectively and held his nerve when Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins were struggling. Shame the Philly fans didn't do the same when they felt it necessary to lustily boo Pat Burrell after a groundout.

To matters off the field, the hot stove season has burst into life with some interesting stories leaking out of San Diego and Colorado that both these strugglers might be prepared to move their star players if the price was right.

San Diego front office guy Paul DePodesta has explained the reasoning behind the idea of trading ace starter Jake Peavy this winter. He conveniently leaves out the ugly divorce between owner John Moores and his wife, which could well mean the team either being sold by Moores or retained and the payroll cut (at least in the short term).

The idea of trading a player who is under contract for the next five years for the (relatively) reasonable price of $78 million would seem strange but, as DePodesta points out, there is no player that is untouchable at the right price. The question would seem to be, in the current fiscal climate and given the fact that GMs are hanging on to prospects like their lives depend on it, could the team extract a big enough bounty to placate the fans as they watch one of the best three pitchers in the league leave town?

So far the answer would seem to be no. Atlanta, Peavy's preferred choice if rumors are to be believed, are said to be offering a mixture of major league-ready talent (RHP Jair Jurrjens, plus one of 2B Kelly Johnson, OF Matt Diaz, SS Yunel Escobar) and prospects, but are reluctant to include the one GM Kevin Towers coverts most, RHP Tommy Hanson.

That would be a much lesser package than the one Oakland received for Dan Haren last year, especially since Peavy is a significantly better pitcher now than Haren was at the point he was traded. That said, Towers hand might be forced by an ownership looking to rebuild whilst running a payroll at around the $58 million of 2007.

As DePodesta says on his blog, "If you have something you value at $1 million dollars, it would be foolish to refuse to consider selling it for $20 million dollars. On the flipside, it would also be foolish to sell it for anything less than $1 million." The package that is allegedly on the table from Atlanta is more $1 million than $20 million.

Over in Colorado, the Rockies have (finally) decided they need pitching and are prepared to pony up 1B/3B Garrett Atkins to get it. The trouble with that plan is that Atkins, good as he is, will only fetch a second- or third-level starter, not the top of the rotation guy they covert. So the team has let it leak that OF Matt Holliday is available for premier pitching.

Holliday is a free agent after this season and it will take a big, multi-year offer to get him to sign a long-term deal. That would seem to rule out every team outside of New York, Boston, and Los Angeles.

Atkins would seem a better fit in Fenway than Holliday, the Mets and Yankees need pitching rather than parting with it, the Angels seem intent on spending their big money on retaining Mark Teixeira, and a deal with the Dodgers would be unpopular as they are a divisional rival.

The market for Holliday, as good as he is, might be smaller than Scott Boras, his agent, imagines. One team I think should get involved is the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that has young pitching to spare and desperately needs to hang on to the newbie fans that appeared once the team made the postseason. What better way to send a signal that the ownership is in it for the long haul than trading for a young slugger in his prime?

The Wall Street Journal points out that the Rays are in an economic hole with small attendances, a poor stadium, and the historic aversion to baseball in south Florida. That doesn't take account of the fact that the nearby Buccaneers of the NFL, who suffered through years of poor attendances while the team was bad, completely turned the situation around once the product on the field improved.

A trade for a young franchise player would send an irrefutable signal to the community that the team wasn't going to follow the example of the neighboring Marlins and dismantle the team (twice) rather than investing in high quality players. Build a competitive team and a decent ballpark and they will come.

The Rays have a host of top-tier prospects to deal if Colorado is prepared to cut payroll, give up on 2009, and plan for beyond 2010. RHP Wade Davis has top of the rotation stuff and there's Jeff Niemann, another righty who stands 6'9" tall and throws a variety of quality off-speed stuff to go with his 93 mph heater. One of the young shortstops Reid Brignac or Tim Beckham is expendable for the right player and the Rays have starters Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine as big league-ready players to sweeten the pot.

Is GM Andrew Friedman likely to make such a bold move after the hubris of the World Series has died down? Unlikely, sadly, as principal owner Stuart Sternberg is warning of hard economic times in Florida. It may well prove to be a missed opportunity for a franchise that needs to build on the momentum of an epic season in an unlikely setting.

Posted by Mike Round at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season (Pt. 5)

Also see: Pt. 1 | Pt. 2 | Pt. 3 | Pt. 4

It's finally here. One day to go before the Celtics become "last year's champs" and 30 NBA teams start on a journey that 29 of them will not complete to become the 2009 NBA champions.

And, forgive me for saying it, but if you're not caught up on what to watch for this NBA season by now, you never will be. Over the last four weeks, we've given you over 10,000 words to keep you up to date on everything from superstars to rookies, individual postseason predictions to projected conference champs, and everything in between.

Today, in my fifth and final edition of the 82 things to watch for this NBA season, I conclude my countdown with a look at how the Eastern Conference stacks up in reverse order of projected finish:

Lottery Teams

15. New Jersey Nets

If it wasn't for the fact that Jay-Z owns 1.4% of the Nets I wouldn't like anything about this team. What's to like?

There are only two players on this team that could even remotely contribute on a quality NBA team: Vince Carter and Devin Harris, and neither is even in their prime (Vince's ended a few years ago, Harris' is yet to come).

When you have to count on guys like Josh Boone, Brook Lopez, Yi Jianlian, Eduardo Najera, Bobby Simmons, and Sean Williams to give to at least 20 minutes per game, the word "rebuilding" doesn't even do justice to what's happening in New Jersey.

I don't care if they have a partial owner that calls himself "Hova" or not, not even he can produce the miracle that it would take to reach 20 wins with this group.

Projected record: 19-63

14. New York Knicks

I guess you can throw the whole "East Coast bias" out the window here with the Knicks and Nets projected to finish dead-last in the East.

For the record, I don't like the "seven seconds or less" style of play, never have and never will, but at least it has a track record of accumulating regular season wins.

And while Mike D'Antoni still has plenty of work to do in tweaking his roster to fit his system, at least he has some talent to play with in the meanwhile. Still, the Knicks have big issues: they are going to have to deal with the inevitable Stephon Marbury soap opera sooner rather than later, and their frontcourt of Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry is a terrible fit for this style of play, just to name a few.

As much as I hate to admit it though, D'Antoni coached teams are fully capable of putting up 120 points on any given night.

That alone should be enough for 20 wins.

Projected record: 24-58

13. Charlotte Bobcats

Michael Jordan may as well have hired Harvey Two Face to coach this team because everything that surrounds Larry Brown is a coin flip at this point.

Heads: This team is awestruck by Brown's impressive tales of success in his dozen or so stops previous to this one and they buy into "playing the right way" immediately.

Tails: All the players have either seen firsthand or heard about from colleagues all the crap that comes along with playing for Larry Brown and they never give him a chance.

Heads: Larry Brown adds Ray Felton and his to the long list of point guards that Brown has developed into NBA stars during his career.

Tails: Brown spends every minute of every practice and every game breaking Felton down to his core, then bolts after one season before ever attempting to build him back up.

Heads: Brown takes a young team with lots of potential, a la his 76ers teams earlier this decade, and coaches them up into the surprise of the '09 season and sneaks into the playoffs, easily surpassing everyone's expectations.

Tails: He takes over and makes no progress whatsoever, a la his Knick teams of a few years back, goes through a messy divorce with the team in which he somehow still weasels a fat severance package out of the deal, and leaves the team worse off than when he got there.

As any good "call it in the air" kinda guy will tell you, tails never fails.

Projected record: 27-55

12. Milwaukee Bucks

Quickly, name the only two teams in the league that have two top-10 scorers from last year on their team.

Okay, you got Denver (Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony), that was easy. However, if we weren't in the Milwaukee section of the preview, I'm pretty sure most of you wouldn't have guessed the Bucks.

Nonetheless, the Bucks bring into the '08-09 season the eighth and ninth top scorers per game in the league in Michael Redd (22.7) and Richard Jefferson (22.6), respectively.

One big problem, though, the Bucks gave up the second most points in the conference last season. While the Bucks will definitely focus their attention more on defense than they have in recent years under new head coach Scott Skiles, they simply don't have the players to compete at a high enough level defensively, putting them at least a year away from being competitive again.

Projected record: 34-48

11. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers took baby steps towards getting better this offseason. They traded Jermaine O'Neal (whose time had certainly run its course in Indy) and added T.J. Ford (a perfect fit to run the show in their up tempo offense), Jarret Jack (a serviceable backup guard), Rasho Nesterovic (a serviceable big guy), and rookie Roy Hibbert.

They still have Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy, Jr., both coming off career years, to be their top playmakers offensively.

However, the Pacers still lack that one "go-to" guy that most great teams possess. They don't have a single all-star on their roster, making it very hard to compete in crunch time night in and night out.

Taking baby steps towards getting better is a good start, but when every team in your division is also taking baby steps, it becomes pretty hard to improve without bringing in superstar.

Projected record: 36-46

10. Chicago Bulls

I project the Bulls to be a lottery team, at least for now. That could all change, however, if they can somehow manage to move one of the 45 guards that they seem to have on their roster. Derrick Rose looks like he might be the real deal, but the only way to find out is to play him.

With guys like Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, Thabo Sefolosha, and even Loul Deng commanding backcourt minutes, the Bulls are faced the difficult task of trying trade at least one, ideally more like two or three, of these guys for some toughness and size inside.

The problem is that there isn't exactly an abundance of size and toughness going around the NBA right now, so teams are not very likely to give up their bigs, at least not for the players I just listed.

Still, if the Bulls can find a way to clear up that logjam in the backcourt before the trade deadline, they might just be able to right the ship in time to make a playoff push.

Projected record: 37-45

9. Washington Wizards

In part one of this preview, I compared Gilbert Arenas to a young Grant Hill. In the most recent edition of ESPN The Magazine, they compared him to a young Penny Hardaway. Either way, it's not a good sign when people feel obligated to compare you to great players who got hurt and were never the same.

That basically sums up the Washington Wizards: They can be great but the keep getting hurt. Arenas is out until at least the middle of December, probably longer. Antawn Jamison already hurt his knee once this preseason, expect that to happen at least once more before it's all said and done. You can pencil Caron Butler in for some sort of injury come February (it could very easily be the third straight season he gets named to the all-star team, but cannot play due to injury).

Still, for the brief periods of time in which the Wizards will be able to have all three of those guys on the floor at the same time, they will be very tough to beat.

Unfortunately, as has been the problem too often with the group, their version of "the big three" simply won't get enough healthy games together to make a big enough impact.

Projected record: 39-43

Playoff Teams

8. Miami Heat

The Heat are coming off of a worst-case-scenario type '08 season in which everything that could go wrong did go wrong. How bad did it get? Their Hall of Fame head coach stopped coaching for about a month in the middle of the season to attend the NCAA tournament to scout players for the upcoming draft. Ouch.

Now, with Dwyane Wade back (and dare I say better than ever after his showing in the Olympics?), Shawn Marion playing in his first full season with the team, and the best player in the draft, Michael Beasley, primed for superstardom, Miami looks to prove that last season was a fluke.

The big problem? They are softer than a roll of paper towels inside. Sure, they may have made out like bandits twice in trades that involve Shaq, but the Heat find themselves with absolutely no inside presence at all right now.

Their options at starting center are either Mark Blount or Udonis Haslem. Ouch again.

While Wade, Marion, and Beasley will most definitely help improve on the Heat's league-worst 91.4 points per game from a season ago, they can't do anything about the fact that they have no one to protect the rim.

Projected record: 41-41

7. Atlanta Hawks

It may be a distant memory now, but the Hawks took the Celtics to seven games in the first round of the playoffs last year. Sure, they only won 37 games last season, but any team that is good enough to push the eventual NBA champs to the brink has to have a lot of confidence coming into this season.

Though the Hawks stayed pretty quiet this offseason, I still expect them to improve significantly based solely on the experience they gained from that series with Boston. Throw in the fact that Al Horford will only get better in his second season and they will get an entire training camp with Mike Bibby and the Hawks could once again be relevant in Atlanta.

Projected record: 42-40

6. Philadelphia 76ers

Philly seems to be the sexy pick to be some sort of "sleeper" team in the East, based solely on the fact that they signed Elton Brand this offseason.

Let me start by saying this: I like Elton Brand. I think he's a really good player. But what about Elton Brand has these people convinced that he is going to be some sort of savior in Philly?

Here are some fun facts about Elton Brand: he's made the playoffs one time in nine NBA seasons. He's played in two all-star games. He's been on one All-NBA team (second team in '06). His best finish in the MVP voting is seventh. He's coming off major surgery that limited him to a whopping eight games last season and he turns 30 in March.

There is an entire decade's worth of proof that says if he is the best player on the team, said team has little to no chance of having any success. Yet for some reason adding Elton Brand to the 76ers has some experts giddy about Philly's chances in the East.

If someone, anyone can explain that to me, I'm all ears.

Projected record: 45-37

5. Toronto Raptors

I might be in the minority here, but I think the addition of Jermaine O'Neal will pay big dividends for the Raptors. Even if he only plays in 50 or so games this year, he's healthy now.

The Raptors can tally wins early, playing eight of their first 12 games against teams that had losing records last season with O'Neal in the lineup, then count on their stellar front office, led by Bryan Colangelo, to make any necessary adjustments should O'Neal get injured down the road.

If O'Neal doesn't get injured, the Raptors play the entire season with one of, if not the best, center-power forward combination in the East.

Projected record: 48-34

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

As I said when I predicted LeBron James to win the MVP: it's LeBron's time.

This quote from James sums up exactly why I think he's ready:

"If you can go out and lead guys who are already established, guys who won NBA championships, scoring titles, MVPs and Rookies of the Year, then I should be able to lead Daniel Gibson."

LeBron has all the physical tools he'll ever need to succeed at the highest of NBA levels; next comes the leadership. If James can unleash his freakish abilities while still getting the role players on this team involved, the sky is the limit.

While there will surely be a feeling out process between James and new point guard Mo Williams, this team should have enough experience come April to be a real threat come playoff time.

Cleveland won 45 games last season and appears to be no less than a 50-win team this year. The real test to see whether the Cavs have gotten any better will come in the playoffs, where LeBron will have an opportunity to put his game where his mouth is and lead this team back to the NBA finals.

Projected record: 51-31

3. Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic didn't make any huge moves this offseason. They didn't have to.

Center Dwight Howard, 22, is coming of a First-Team All-NBA season. He won a gold medal with Team USA in Beijing. Did I mention he's only 22?

When Orlando worked out the sign-and-trade with Rashard Lewis at six-years, $118 million, I'd say they made a pretty big commitment making it work.

So instead of being drastic, the Magic wisely kept the core of their Southeast Champion and 52-win team together and added versatile free agent swing man Mickael Pietrus. With the return of Tony Battie (back after missing all of last season with a shoulder injury) and the surprisingly effective play of J.J. Reddick this preseason, the Magic look deeper and deadlier than they did a year ago.

Add that to the improvements that Dwight Howard vows to make this year (he says his goal is to win Defensive player of the Year, who am I to argue with Superman?), and suddenly, the Magic begin to look like a real powerhouse in the East.

Projected record: 56-26

2. Detroit Pistons

You know the old cliché, "if you're not getting better, you're getting worse?" Joe Dumars doesn't believe that.

Sure, the Pistons haven't been to the NBA Finals since 2005, but they aren't exactly getting worse. They have been to a remarkable six straight conference finals, and show very little signs of bucking that trend this year.

Dumars made it known this offseason that none of his players were off-limits, and reportedly flirted with the idea of trading for impact players like Carmelo Anthony and Tracy McGrady before eventually pulling everyone off the trading block before training camp opened because he didn't feel like the Pistons were getting good enough offers.

So Detroit returns with the ever-so-familiar core of players, hoping that a few new-but-familiar faces (Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson) can keep this team playing at the level that has made them a 50-win team for each of the last seven seasons (tied with Dallas for the second longest active streak by any team, behind only the Spurs).

If the opportunity to make a deal strikes in the middle of the season, Dumars won't hesitate to bring in a big-name player midseason to set this team back towards championship contention, as he did in '04 with Rasheed Wallace. If not, the Pistons are stacked enough as is to still be a real test for any team trying to come out of the East.

Projected record: 58-24

1. Boston Celtics

Hey, I said earlier they won't be last season's champs till Tuesday. Congratulations one last time to the Boston Celtics on being the 2008 NBA champions. The repeat bid stars now.

We know what this team is capable of. Will they be able to dig deep enough to get back there? The regular season isn't the time to answer that question. We'll revisit that issue much later.

Projected record: 61-21

Thus concludes the countdown of the "82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season." Be sure to check back at Sports Central every Monday for Scott Shepherd's weekly take on what's going on around the NBA.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:11 AM | Comments (3)

October 24, 2008

An Unbiased Look at Top 25 Rankings

We all know the story of the BCS, with its tremendous flaws and clockwork-esque national title problems. It's also an incredibly complicated and intricate system, taking into account many different things that may not even need to be taken into account.

Not that anyone should try unless they are a mathematician, but I've recently attempted to simplify the BCS into one easier to understand rankings system. It's flawed, no doubt, but it definitely provokes some interesting parallels. First, let's take a look at the current BCS top 25:

1. Texas 7-0
2. Alabama 7-0
3. Penn State 8-0
4. Oklahoma 6-1
5. USC 5-1
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Georgia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 7-0
9. Ohio State 7-1
10. Florida 5-1
11. Utah 8-0
12. Boise State 6-0
13. LSU 5-1
14. TCU 7-1
15. Missouri 5-2
16. South Florida 6-1
17. Pitt 5-1
18. Georgia Tech 6-1
19. Tulsa 7-0
20. Ball State 7-0
21. BYU 6-1
22. Northwestern 6-1
23. Kansas 5-2
24. Minnesota 6-1
25. Florida State 5-1

And my rankings, which I'll explain further in a moment:

1. Texas 7-0
2. USC 5-1
3. Oklahoma 6-1
4. Florida 5-1
5. Missouri 5-2
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Oregon State 4-3
8. TCU 7-1
9. Iowa 5-3
10. California 5-2
11. Penn State 8-0
12. Georgia 6-1
13. Alabama 7-0
14. Tulsa 7-0
15. Ball State 7-0
16. Nebraska 4-3
17. Arizona 5-2
18. Georgia Tech 6-1
19. Boise State 6-0
20. Northern Illinois 4-3
21. Minnesota 6-1
22. Kansas 5-2
23. Ohio State 7-1
24. Vanderbilt 5-2
25. Mississippi 3-4

There are a lot of the same teams, just mixed up — but there are also some teams that many people wouldn't even think about including in the top 25. Ole Miss? Northern Illinois? Ohio State at No. 23?

While it would be juvenile to try and pass this off as a legitimate way to rank the teams from the most deserving of a title shot to the least, the things that it takes into account are perhaps the most important (they are also the only things I used to create my rankings):

Strength of schedule — A team's strength of schedule helps put every category of measurement into much better perspective. They may have a 6-2 record, but the toughest schedules in the country, making the two losses appear all the more impressive.

Points scored minus points given up — Perhaps the most important gauge of a team's strength, besides strength of schedule; how much points a team has scored minus how much it has given up is a great indicator of overall team strength. It also factors in points scored off of turnovers and special teams.

Winning percentage — While this statistic alone can be misleading, when you combine in it with the previous two, you get a much better grasp on how impressive it is.

What I think my rankings show, and should cause us all to think about, is that the taboo that is the way we tag a loss is perhaps a bit too harsh. For instance, USC played a bad game against Oregon State in its only loss thus far. But according to many factors, is still a better team than, say, unbeaten Oklahoma State. The most important thing to remember here is that these rankings are done in a way in which to compare two teams should they meet on a neutral playing field. Perhaps we try and bring to many things into the fray when ranking teams? Are we thinking too much?

In conclusion, though, I'm not trying to discredit the BCS — but perhaps when you look at the rankings, remember to pull in a bit more outside factors into account. The intangibles. The things that you cannot put down on paper.

The system sure is going to need them when there's 10 one-loss teams contending for the final national title spot!

Posted by Josh Galligan at 11:50 AM | Comments (4)

October 23, 2008

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-2)

After a bye week to assess their 3-3 record and station in life, the Eagles are bound and determined to drag themselves from the bottom of the NFC East and reach the potential that some analysts recognized, possibly in a crystal ball, when said analysts boldly picked the Eagles to make the Super Bowl. Philly will try to start that turnaround against 4-2 Atlanta, the NFC's most surprising team.

"I'm not sure what those prognosticators were smoking at the time," says Andy Reid, "but I'm sure my sons could get hold of some. As for the game, the congregation of so many Falcons and Eagles in one place is sure to create suspense. The Hitchcockian overtures will be overwhelming. Of course, today's players probably have no idea what that means. To them, 'Hitchcock' is a venereal disease."

Mike Smith has the Falcons in the thick of the playoff hunt, but he knows the one thing they must avoid is complacency.

"Hopefully, we haven't reached our peak yet," says Smith. "It's not often an NFL head coach makes a reference to iconic actor and pretty boy Lorenzo Lamas, but here goes: this team's potential has not reached a 'Falcon Crest.' How's that? I bet you thought I was going to drop a Renegade reference, Lamas' Highlander ripoff. Wrong! Anyway, as far as a victor in this game goes, there can be only one."

So, which Eagle team will show up at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday? The team that shutdown the Steelers, 15-6, or the team that lost 41-37 to those highly overrated Cowboys? Philly's had a bye week to get Bryan Westbrook healthy, and Reid's added a few wrinkles to the playbook, thereby making his laminated play sheet about the size of your front door. I'm guessing the Eagles will load up the line and contain Michael Turner, and force Matt Ryan to beat them through the air. The Falcons hang tough, but the Eagles take a hard-fought 23-17 win.

St. Louis @ New England (-8)

Have the Rams really beaten the Redskins and Cowboys in consecutive weeks? You know, most people were right. The Rams' problem was "lack of coaching." More specifically, the Rams' problem was "lack of Scott Linehan's coaching." Linehan was fired three weeks ago, and St. Louis is 2-0 while "lacking Linehan's coaching."

"In two weeks," says Jim Haslett, "we went from the worst team in the league to a contender in the NFC West. Obviously, that's not going far, but we're so proud of our accomplishments that I want to let everyone know, including the Patriots and Bill Belichick. Therefore, we're offering them a DVD copy of our Dallas win, as well as a bonus disc, which includes my commentary on the entire three-hour game. Plus, if they act now, they'll get another disc containing 14 hours of blooper footage from our first four games."

The Patriots are back on track after blowing out the Broncos, 41-7, last Monday behind 3 touchdown passes by Matt Cassel, two to Randy Moss. The Pats are 4-2 and trail the Bills by one game with a Week 10 contest between the two on the horizon.

"The Broncos left here with 'blazing saddles,'" says Bill Belichick, "because they were ridden long and hard. Mike Shanahan a genius? Yeah, maybe if Ed Hochuli is proctoring Shanny's IQ test. Here's an unsolicited observation on the AFC West: if the Chargers don't win that division, then they a sorry excuse for a potential playoff team."

New England wins, 31-24.

Kansas City @ NY Jets (-11½)

After a physically-taxing 34-10 loss to the Titans, the Chiefs fell to 1-5 and saw their top two quarterbacks, Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard, go down with injuries. Croyle is lost for the season with a knee injury, while Huard's status is uncertain for next week with a thumb injury. That would be plenty to dampen the spirits of your average NFL coach. But not Herman Edwards, whose sunny disposition and amicable personality can always find the positive side to any situation.

"My motto is 'always look on the bright side,'" says Edwards. "Sure, I may take that too far sometimes, specifically with my ongoing crusade to change the Pink Floyd album to The Bright Side of the Moon. No luck so far. That doesn't mean I don't listen to the album, particularly the song 'Money,' which is why I'm in Kansas City and not still with the Jets."

"Now, we've got our share of problems. Sure, two of our quarterbacks may be hurt, but it gives Tyler Thigpen another opportunity to prove his worth to this team, and the Peanuts crew, as well. And, by now, you've already heard of Larry Johnson's assault problems, or at least three of them. It seems that Larry's in trouble for spitting a drink in a woman's face. Larry claims it was self-defense. You see, the lady had asked Larry what his yards-per-rush average was. When he told her, she spit out her drink in surprise, right into Larry's face. He was just getting her back. He spit, when he should have swallowed. His pride, that is."

"But I don't think L.J. will get out of this one. Ideally, I hope Larry can get off with just community service. It will be a chance for him to give back to the community. He can put that yards-per-rush average to good use while teaching second-graders about fractions."

The Chiefs defense will face a Jets offense led by Brett Favre, known throughout the league as a "gunslinger," while quickly building an equally renowned reputation as a "mudslinger." When he's not bashing his former employees in Green Bay, Favre likes to call Packers opponents and drop dime on what he thinks the Packers' offense will try to do.

"Hey, I texted Sports Illustrated's Peter King and explicitly denied giving the Lions any information on the Packers. That should be enough to quell those nasty rumors. Name me one instance when my word wasn't good. Okay, name another one."

New York wins, 29-13.

Washington @ Detroit (+7½)

"Get up, everybody's gonna move their feet. Get down, everybody's gonna leave their seat."

Lyrics to a KISS song, or what Detroit fans are doing? Either way, you're gonna lose your mind in "Detroit Rock City."

"I don't blame the fans for leaving," says Rod Marinelli. "Let's see. First, the Lions get rid of Matt Millen. What happens? We lose. Then we get rid of Roy Williams. What happens? We lose. I'm thinking my job is pretty safe, despite the fact that the front office has moved my office into the back of a U-Haul moving truck. I'm nervously awaiting the sad day when the headlines read 'Rod Gets the Shaft.' For now, we are determined to put fans back in the seats, and, judging by the Lions record of bad decisions, I wouldn't be surprised if we're given approval to kidnap to achieve that goal. "

The Redskins are 5-2 and clearly one of the stronger teams in the NFC. But here's an alarming statistic: Washington hasn't won a single game by more than seven points this year, and have only scored 12 more points than their opponents.

"Hey, we like to keep the gamblers on their toes," says Jim Zorn. "As far as the Lions go, we can't and won't take them lightly. I'm sure their skipper Sparky Anderson will have them ready. What? He's not the coach? Okay, then I'm sure Chuck Daly ... No? Flip Saunders? Wayne Fontes? Never mind, then. Sure, they're 0-6, but Lions are most dangerous when backed into a corner. Unless they stay there. Then they're totally harmless, and quite cuddly. We've lost to one winless team already this year; we won't let it happen again."

Clinton Portis rushes for 112 yards and a touchdown, and the Redskins try their best to win by 7½ points just to make Vegas sweat. But, eventually, they win, 27-17.

Buffalo @ Miami (+1)

After a thorough 23-14 whipping of the Chargers that improved their record to 5-1, the Bills feel confident mentioning themselves among the elite teams of the AFC. Now, they embark on a three-game series in which they'll face their AFC East competition, the results of which will be vital in eventually determining the division champ.

"This team is riding high on confidence right now," says head coach Dick Jauron, "We just beat the Chargers, an AFC finalist last year, so convincingly that they packed up and left the country. We'll need that same kind of determination in Miami, where the Dolphins have already doubled their win output from last year. We know we can expect some tricky formations from Tony Sparano and the 'Fins. They like to use that formation in which there's no quarterback in the backfield. They call it the 'Wildcat' formation. We call it 'Chad Pennington lining up under center.'"

Miami may be a few years away from the playoffs, but they are competitive week in and week out. Most of that credit goes to general manager Bill Parcells, who, as he has done before with other teams, has cultivated a winning climate.

"Sometimes, franchises just need a total overhaul," says Sparano. "Bill's done that here. And the city has embraced him. Now, when people talk about Miami, not only do they mention the beach, the cocaine trade, the cosmopolitan lifestyle, J. Lo's booty, Ocean Drive, and the South Beach Diet, they also mention Parcells. And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Bill even got his nickname from one of the main tenets of the South Beach Diet, 'Good Fat.'"

Buffalo wins, 23-20.

Arizona @ Carolina (-4½)

The Panthers rebounded from their dismal 27-3 loss to the Bucs in Week 6 with a convincing 30-7 win over the Saints and Drew Brees. Carolina is a perfect 4-0 at home, and will put that record on the line when Kurt Warner and the Cardinals pay a visit this Sunday.

"Arizona is certainly playing well," says Jake Delhomme. "I'd say they're peaking right now. In fact, I believe they have achieved 'Cardinal synergy.' But we know it will difficult to take Kurt Warner out of his game. Now, if it were Matt Leinart starting, we could just leave a trail of thong panties leading to Julius Peppers, and Leinart would fall for it every time. We're tempted to try the same thing on Warner, except with granny panties. But Warner's not so easily distracted. He's beyond temptation. He's got his own version of the 'Three Amigos' on his side. I'm not talking about Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston. I'm talking about the 'Father, Son, and Holy Ghost.' Those guys are badass."

Warner and the Cards will face the Panthers fifth-rated defense, a unit that's given up only 33 points in four home wins.

"Hey, I know they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulders," says Warner. "I can't blame them. We're coming in here with cardinals on our helmets, knowing full well that the cardinal is the state bird of North Carolina. What's the state bird of Arizona? I'd guess the roadrunner, but Leinart tells me it's the 'twin-breasted, red-rumped woodpecker.' He also tells me the state snake is the 'feathered boa,' so I'm a little dubious of Leinart's understanding of the animal kingdom, beavers excluded."

The Panthers shut down Brees, so why shouldn't they be able to do the same to Warner? Check the history books. The Panthers have never lost at home to a glove-wearing quarterback. Carolina wins, 29-21.

San Diego @ New Orleans (+3)

The Chargers and Saints will face-off in London's Wembley Stadium, and the British will again get a taste of the intricacies of American football. The Saints and Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in passing yardage, will face the 3-4 Chargers, who have the league's worst pass defense.

"I guess the Chargers' defensive backs coach is familiar with a 'corner kick,'" says Brees. "It's what he does when Quentin Jammer gets burned. We'll be throwing downfield quite a bit. I just wish Reggie Bush was here for the Brits to see. I guess it's for the best; I hear the British hate Bush anyway."

San Diego's Phillip Rivers isn't in London to gain any sense of cultural diversity. He's here simply to win a football game, and if the British are intrigued by what he does for a living, then so be it.

"Am I supposed to be impressed by these soccer hooligans?" says Rivers. "Well, I'm not. I don't need to go to London to see fanatical, out-of-control, eager-to-fight sports fan. I can see that in Oakland on any given Sunday. And I'm talking about during church."

While the British may not completely understand the game of American football, they obviously know more about it than Rivers knows about soccer. During a pre-game interview, Rivers is asked his opinion of 'Man U.' and replies that he prefers attending co-ed colleges.

San Diego wins, 27-22.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-3 ½)

You know what they say — "everything's bigger in Texas." That includes cowboy hats, legal fees, personal seat licenses, Wade Phillip's noggin, player complaints, and pinkie injuries. With Tony Romo out with a broken pinkie, the Cowboys were destroyed by the Rams, 34-14, the Cowboys' second straight loss and third in their last four games. It's all put Phillips' job in jeopardy and Romo's rehab on the fast track.

"Look, I've already said this once," says Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, who answers to the name "Dick Magnate" in the seedy internet chat rooms in which he frolics. "Wade Phillips' job is not in danger. However, his head is. As for Romo, he's proving that the pinkie finger is just as important to quarterbacking as it is to playing Guitar Hero."

"Now, I'm praying Tony will be ready for Sunday's game. We've all stepped up the rehab on the pinkie. Even Jessica Simpson's pitching in with her special 'hands free' pinkie massage, which has worked wonders for Tony's pinkie as well as his morale."

"I'm Tony Romo, and I approved this massage."

"Romo's pinkie is sure getting pampered," says Jon Gruden. "I haven't seen this much tiptoeing around a body part since Keyshawn Johnson's mouth was in Tampa. I don't think Romo will be making Howie Long's 'Tough Guys' list. You know, here in Tampa, we've got a miracle cure for a broken pinkie. It's called athletic tape, and you just tape that broken finger to the closest good finger, and it's good as new."

Dallas wins, 22-20.

Oakland @ Baltimore (-7)

The Raiders won their second game of the year, and first under interim head coach Tom Cable, with a 16-13 overtime win over Brett Favre and the Jets. Cable had a pre-game surprise for his troops, as former Raider great Ken Stabler stumbled into the locker room and "fumbled" a bottle of Jack Daniels, which was then pounced on by another famed Raider, Dave Casper, while a gummed-up Lester Hayes tries to glad-hand all the current Raiders, although his first handshake left him stuck to the hand of quarterback JaMarcus Russell.

"That's not entirely true," says Cable. "It was a bottle of Jim Beam. Anyway, I'm happy to be coach of the Raiders. And I'd be even happier if Al Davis would pay me in something other than Confederate currency. Al's got some crazy idea that he doesn't have to pay his coaches. Well, I won't stand for it. He's not going to get 'free Cable.'"

The Ravens bounced back from three straight defeats with a 27-13 win in Miami, evening their record at 3-3. This will be coach John Harbaugh's first instance of coaching against the Raiders and wacky owner Davis.

"Hey, I love Al's 'Warped Tour,'" says Harbaugh. "Love him or hate him, Al's a legend in football. I sure hope I get to meet him. Is it true that's he's actually transparent? Did he really play a zombie in a George Romero movie without makeup? Does he know a cotton-picking thing at all about pro football in the 21st century?"

Baltimore wins, 23-12.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-10)

Isn't it odd? At 0-7, the Bengals have the worst record in the NFL, yet the behavior of the team has been exemplary. There have been no arrests, and Chad Johnson has complained little if any, although he's had plenty to complain about, including his own play.

"Yeah, if you ignore the seven losses," says Marvin Lewis, "then things couldn't be better. Usually, people are saying what a train wreck this team is. Well, this team ain't no train wreck. At least not yet. We did just sign Cedric Benson, who, should he get behind the controls of a train, very likely may cause a train wreck. This Bengal organization has made it a habit of signing some of the league's most unsavory characters. Benson and Chris Henry have no doubt been on 'Most Wanted' lists before. Apparently, they're most wanted in only one state, because they only made our list of most wanted free agents."

Since starting the season 0-4, the Texans have won two in a row behind the quarterbacking of Matt Schaub, who, when healthy, is Houston's number one quarterback. He'll try to make it three straight against a Bengals squad that again might be without Carson Palmer, who's considering surgery to correct an elbow injury.

"As a fellow member of the quarterbacking fraternity," says Schaub, "I certainly have sympathy for Carson's predicament. His injury has been well-publicized, and doctors have even named the injury after him. It's called 'Palmer's Elbow,' and if left untreated, it can even cause hairy palms and blindness."

Houston wins, 30-24.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-7)

Is Derek Anderson the quarterback of the future for the Browns? After a 14-for-37, 136-yard performance last week against the Redskins, one has to wonder.

"Let me put it this way," says Romeo Crenel. "He can wear shades if he wants to, but Derek's future is so 'blight,' there won't be a Brady Quinn trade. I may have to heed the advice of Zed from Pulp Fiction and 'bring out the gimp,' and put in Quinn."

The Jaguars are 3-3 and will no doubt be pulling for the Colts to beat the undefeated Titans on Monday night and tighten up the AFC South race. Either way, the Jaguars will need a win to remain in second place in the division.

"We're a running team," says Jack Del Rio. "And we just became more of a running team upon learning of the suspension of our leading receiver Matt Jones, who was suspended three game for violating the NFL's 'You idiot! You were doing cocaine in your car?! In public?!' policy. In short, Matt got 'nose tackled' by the NFL. I always wondered why Matt chuckled everytime I told him to go line up in the slot."

Without Jones, Jacksonville becomes an even more run-heavy team. But that's not a bad thing. The Jags are at their best utilizing the "Short Fuse" offense, in which they "run like hell." And, against the Brown's 26th-ranked rush defense, which just gave up 175 yards to Clinton Portis, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will find plenty of room.

Jacksonville wins, 27-13. Suspended Browns tight end Kellen Winslow is sadly diagnosed with his second major illness in less than a month — locker room cancer.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-4)

It's a battle for last in the NFC West as the 1-5 Seahawks face the 2-5 49ers, who just fired head coach Mike Nolan. Defensive coordinator Mike Singletary was named interim head coach and immediately addressed the team with the beady-eyed stare that intimidated many opposing quarterbacks during Singletary's days as a middle linebacker in Chicago.

"I love it," says San Fran linebacker Patrick Willis. "It was really cool how they played 'These Eyes' while Singletary was being announced as our new head coach. We just unloaded Mike Nolan in exchange for Mike Singletary. So, we went from 'Sayonara' Mike to 'Samurai' Mike. That's awesome!"

"I've been jammin' for quite a while," says Singletary. "Doin' what's right and settin' the style. So it's no surprise to me that I was selected to replace Nolan. Unlike Mike, I'm 'well-suited' for this job. Now, if I could just get Buddy Ryan in here to implement the '46' defense, and garnish that with a punky QB, we could very well turn this season around."

No team in the NFL has suffered more injuries than the Seahawks. Matt Hasselbeck has dealt with chronic back and knee injuries all year, while the Seahawks' receiving unit has been battered beyond repair. The Seahawks have the NFL's worst passing offense, averaging a paltry 127 yards per game.

"That's just stinks," says Mike Holmgren. "It smells like teen spirit. Heck, it smells like Tom Skerritt. This is definitely not how I envisioned my last year in Seattle. I was supposed to be the one carried off the field, not my players. But what can you do about injuries? It's a part of the game. We'll just try to play guys when they're healthy. Right now, our first-stringers are a lot like Bigfoot —they only make rare appearances in the Pacific Northwest."

The excitement's back in San Francisco. No, it has nothing to do with Singletary. A 3.8 magnitude earthquake just hit. And two more Seahawks just went down. San Francisco wins, 24-10.

NY Giants @ Pittsburgh (-1)

Sunday night's Giants/Steelers contest will mark Plaxico Burress' first game against his former Steeler teammates in Pittsburgh, a place where players respect their head coaches. Burress has clashed lately with head coach Tom Coughlin, and the two engaged in a brief shouting match last Sunday in San Francisco.

"Hey, what's wrong with giving a 'shout out' to your coach?" ask Burress. "Coach Coughlin is an older man; he's hard of hearing. Me? I'm just hard of head, with an aversion to authority, rules, practicing, and putting my son on the school bus. In Cincinnati, coaches and receivers may kiss, but you won't see me kissing Coach Coughlin. Man, I'm not down with that interracial thing."

Burress is undoubtedly Coughlin's, and Eli Manning's, favorite target. To win this game, the Giants will need a big game from Burress, and a turnover-free game from Manning, who will be frantically avoiding the Steeler rush led by linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley. But the real fun will be watching Hines Ward and Troy Polamalu play, fresh off a visit from the league office. Ward was docked $15,000 grand for two hits, while Polamalu said the NFL was becoming a "pansy" league for the way the league levied financial penalties for infractions. So, Hines, how'd the meeting go?

"'Fine,'" says Ward. "I just had a few questions for the league when we met — who do I make this check out to? And is it tax deductible? Troy's right. You can't hit anyone in this game anymore, unless you're Larry Johnson. I don't play this game to hurt people, but damn, it's always cool to be on Youtube. Anyway, I understand the Baltimore Ravens have a 'bounty' on me. I'm shaking. They know where to find me. Leave it to the Ravens to bring a 'paper' towel to a Terrible Towel fight."

Most people say this game will be decided by the quarterbacks. I'd agree with that, but only if I knew beforehand that Manning and Ben Roethlisberger sat down together prior to the game and came to a gentleman's agreement on who'd turn the ball over more. There will be precious few yards on the ground, so there will be a lot of passing. I think the Giants' offensive line will protect Manning better, giving him more time to go downfield. New York wins, 24-21.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-3½)

Just when we thought Peyton Manning was back to form, he suffered a miserable day in Green Bay, going 21-for-42 for 229 yards, no touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns. Manning offered no excuses for his play, although he did check with doctors to make sure they hadn't performed a third surgery on his left knee.

"The knee is just fine," says Manning. "It's my back that's bothering me now. The Titans' 332 yard rushing performance last week sent shivers up my spine, and left defensive coordinator Ron Meeks in awe. Not only that, but we have the worst rushing offense in the league, and the Titans have that beast Albert Haynesworth anchoring their line. And it's a contract year for Phat Albert. I don't limit my audibles at the line to just changing plays, so maybe I'll just tender Haynesworth a contract offer during Monday's game. After all, what our defense needs most is a run-stuffing, man-boobed monster in the middle, and he fits the bill. I don't know if we can afford the bill, though."

The Titans are the NFL's last remaining undefeated team, although the 1972 Miami Dolphins aren't quite fretting over their precious record just yet. It's strange that the NFL's last undefeated team is a squad other than the Colts, who began the last three years 13-0, 9-0, and 7-0. Jeff Fisher feels a changing of the guard in the AFC South.

"And the Chargers and Saints went all the way to Buckingham Palace to see a 'changing of the guard,'" says Fisher, "when they could have just seen one here. Suckers. But seriously, beating the Colts is never an easy task. We know they'll try to beat us through the air, because there's no way the league's lowest-rated rushing offense can do anything against us. We just have to play out game on offense, which is loads of rushes and high percentage, 4-yard passes. When all is said and done, the Colts will be a little 'hoarse,' because we're going to run the ball right down their throats."

Tennessee wins, 25-19.

Get more expert picks at BetFirms and give yourself the best chance of beating the NFL betting odds this week.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

Slant Pattern Odds and Ends

I don't write about baseball much. I don't watch baseball much, except for the Indians. But I have caught Rays fever. I love a good worst-to-first story anyway, but watching David Price in Game 7 of the ALCS sealed it for me.

It's probably because this Rays team keeps leaving indicators that have me waxing nostalgic for the Tribe of the '90s.

Price was only drafted last year, and only joined the big club in mid-September. When he struck out J.D. Drew in the eighth inning and the bases loaded, it reminded me of an ending-inning strike three pitch Chad Ogea threw in the 1997 ALCS to get out of a jam. On that telecast, when strike three was called, the announcers said nothing, and allowed the stadium ambience to tell the story. With Price on Sunday, the announcer simply yelled, "Strike three!" and let the stadium ambience tell the story.

Yes, Chad Ogea. You probably don't remember him. He and Jaret Wright were the two Tribe pitchers to carry the team into the postseason as rookies. I hope Price does not suffer the same long-term career fate of either of them.

After a week with really no good college football games (there was Missouri at Texas, but I think we all kind of knew Texas would win big), there's nearly too many to name this Saturday. You have Oklahoma State at Texas (Texas's biggest home challenge to date), Georgia at LSU, and Michigan State at Michigan (okay, but I'm a Big Ten guy so this one is always a staple), all at 3:30.

In prime time, again, three to choose from: Alabama at Tennessee (okay, Tennessee sucks, but see my comment for Michigan/Michigan State and apply it here for SEC fans), Notre Dame at Washington (I've eaten a lot of crow defending Tyrone Willingham and impugning Charlie Weis, and with that analysis going up in flames, please, Tyrone, find a way to pull the upset; save me some face and save your job, if it even can be saved at this point), and Penn State at Ohio State, which seems very likely to be the de facto Big Ten Championship Game. Your 10:15 nightcap will feature USC going on the road to face a non-terrible team, Arizona. We have seen USC lose focus in these games before.

As a final treat, ESPN wisely scheduled a Sunday night game this week. Sunday Night Football is taking a week off as a bow in the direction of the World Series, but ESPN knows there is a market that will take football over baseball every time. It's not the greatest game, UCF at 22nd-ranked Tulsa, but UCF did play South Florida and Miami close.

For that matter (this is turning into a retread of my last column about what a great sports weekend it was, but oh well), there's more than the usual interesting games and story lines in he NFL, too. You have the Bucs at the Cowboys, Rams at Patriots (I defy you to figure out which suddenly resurgent team is more for real ... and who would have predicted at the beginning of the year you could use the word "resurgent" to describe the Patriots less than half the season in?), Chargers vs. Saints in London, and Cardinals at Panthers.

Yes, that's right, the Cardinals at the Panthers is actually a marquee matchup, and you heard it here first: the 2009 Arizona Cardinals will be the NFL's answer to the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays. Behind Kurt freakin' Warner, or all people. They will make it at least to the NFC Championship Game, and we will all be reminded ad nauseam of how Warner's wife bravely beat cancer. And that her salt-and-pepper hair will once again demonstrate how Warner eschewed the typical athlete's trophy wife and hence he is a god-damn beautiful, inspiring man. You will think it's 2000 all over again.

I won't be watching, though. I have committed to opening up a local chapter of the IUTMKWCJA (I Used to Make Kurt Warner Concussion Jokes Anonymous).

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:49 AM | Comments (1)

October 22, 2008

2008 World Series Preview

Firstly, as a declaration of interest, I wish to point out that I'll be rooting for the Rays. Not out of any dislike for the Phillies, who have a solid line up of honest good guys (Brett Myers excepted). Plus, they regularly shaft the Mets, much to my amusement.

My problem with the Phillies is the resident grumpy old hack of the Philadelphia Daily News, Bill "Those Were the Days" Conlin. Herr Conlin, who's seemingly covered the team since its inception, is well known in blogging circles for his speculation that Adolf Hitler would have eliminated all bloggers had he still been around in today's Internet age (unlikely, as Hitler would have been over 100-years-old when Al Gore invented the web — or six years younger than Bill Conlin). Conlin also managed to get himself booted off his Comcast Sports TV gig with a racial slur against Hispanics.

I can live with these indiscretions as Conlin is: 1) Really old and actually remembers Hitler batting leadoff for the Linz Hobos (he was a gritty David Eckstein-type with a low OBP, dodgy mustache, and one testicle); and 2) He's endured a lot of losing sports franchises in Philly, so he's entitled to be a bit testy.

What really pisses me off about Conlin and his ilk is that they are all so smug and self-satisfied with blimp-sized egos that would put Simon Cowell to shame. I once sent Conlin an e-mail after he wrote a spiteful column venting his spleen against Pat Burrell and his high strikeout ratio. Burrell is a regular target for the bitter Philly media and, admittedly, his game has weaknesses, but I decided to ask Conlin why a strikeout was such an abomination, compared to say a routine popup or grounding into a double play.

His reply was spectacularly petty and vicious, especially since I'd asked the question politely and without any criticism of his article. He stereotyped me as a "soccer hooligan" (I'd signed my e-mail "Mike in England"), enclosed photos of his car and collection of houses, and challenged me to a career comparison. I took exception to his tone — I haven't been convicted of soccer hooliganism since the early-'80s and my "career" consists of marrying a particularly attractive and wealthy American woman — but I replied by asking the question again and congratulating him on his obvious success.

This time, I got a list of the events he'd covered in his lifetime (every major sporting event worldwide dating from the original Athens Olympics), a reference to the decline of the British Empire due to the inherent laziness of the British people, and a brief synopsis of his salary package, but no answer to my question.

So, to paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, I'm rooting for the Rays out of spite.

Putting Bill Conlin aside, let's take an impartial look at how the two teams matchup.

Homefield Advantage

Courtesy of Brad Lidge blowing a save in the All-Star Game, Tampa Bay gets to begin and end the series in The Trop where they own the best homefield advantage in the game. The real advantage for the Rays is that on the road they'll be playing in the bandbox Citizens Bank where their prodigious home run power will come into play.

Advantage — Rays

Managers

Joe Maddon had a shaky ALCS, blundering his way through Game 5 with some truly mind-numbingly bad pitching decisions, and then redeemed himself with his by-the-numbers approach in Game 7. Despite all the manager of the year talk, there were times in the heat of the battle with Boston that Maddon resembled a deer frozen in the headlights. To his (and his players') credit, they held it together for Game 7. That said, Charlie Manuel is a wily old fox, he has a veteran roster to call on, and his bullpen options are more straightforward.

Advantage — Phillies

Starting Pitching

From nowhere, the Rays have acquired the deepest starting rotation in the AL. The Phillies aren't as deep (though they have the best starter in Hamels) and rely more heavily on their bullpen to keep the team ERA at a respectable 3.88.

Scott Kazmir (2.90 home ERA) against Cole Hamels is an intriguing Game 1 matchup of power lefties. Hamels suffers no drop-off on the road (3.19 ERA this season), but he has a career ERA of 4.63 indoors against a lifetime ERA of 3.43. This will be his first outing in Tropicana Field.

James Shields has looked shaky at time in the postseason, but pitches well at home (2.59 ERA). He matches up well against Brett Myers in Game 2, who has been poor on the road this year (6.21 ERA, .301 BAA) and in his career (4.69 ERA, .275 BAA). The Rays will be counting this as a banker win.

The backend of the rotations heavily favor the Rays. Matt Garza was sensational in Game 7 of the ALCS, but he's better at the Trop than on the road (2.89/4.53 ERA split). That said, he'll be confident of dispatching Jamie Moyer, who was brutalized in his last outing in Los Angeles.

Andy Sonnanstine doesn't possess the array of pitches that Kazmir, Shields, and Garza can call upon, but he's tough and won both his playoff starts by pitching to contact and letting his defense do the rest. Joe Blanton was mediocre in the regular season but has pitched well in the playoffs against the Dodgers and Brewers. I suspect he may struggle against a harder hitting Rays team in a small ballpark.

Advantage — Rays

Bullpen

There's a lot of talk about how effective the Rays' bullpen is, and that was certainly true during the regular season, despite the lack of an everyday closer. The relievers have looked a lot more fragile since the epic Game 5 collapse in the ALCS and there's a sneaking suspicion that Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are all hittable in close games. Situational guys Chad Bradford (RHP) and Trever Miller (LHP) are strictly one-out pitchers, so the question remains — who closes?

After his eighth- and ninth-inning heroics in Game 7 of the ALCS, 2007 first-overall pick David Price (LHP) could get the call. The way he handled J.D. Drew, striking him out looking with bases loaded was mightily impressive and he'd have cleaned up the ninth with a routine 1-2-3 inning had Sam Holbrook at first base spotted that Jason Bay clearly went around with two strikes against him. Price is an unknown quantity, as was Francisco Rodriguez setting up Troy Percival in the 2002 World Series, but he looks composed and can call on a 96 mph fastball and an 87 mph slider to befuddle hitters.

The Phillies 'pen is well set. Ryan Madson is the primary righty, J.C. Romero the lefty, with Brad Lidge entrenched in the ninth. Off the main menu are righties Clay Condrey and Chad Durbin and lefties J.A Happ and Scott Eyre, who are solid, but a drop-off from the three main men. The Rays have better depth, the Phillies a better top three.

Advantage — Even

Hitting

These teams can really mash. Nobody hit more home runs (214) in the NL than the Phillies and only the Cubs scored more runs and had a better slugging percentage. With Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and the under-valued Shane Victorino, the Phillies are always a threat at the plate even though they weren't firing on all cylinders in the NLDS or NLCS. Improved contributions from streaky hitters Howard and Utley could decimate the Rays' pitching.

The Rays hit 180 home runs (fourth in the AL) in the regular season, but it has been in the post season that their bats have exploded, with an incredible 22 home runs already. Add to that the 17 stolen bases (more than the other three Championship Series teams added together) and you have a balanced, aggressive attack.

B.J. Upton heard some criticism in the regular season for his casual attitude and lack of power (9 home runs). He's exploded in the playoffs with 7 homers and 15 RBIs. He'll be the most talented and dangerous player on either side.

Both teams are offensive superpowers, but the Rays have the hot bats and slightly more talent.

Advantage — Rays

Defense

Rays outfielders Carl Crawford, Upton, and Gabe Gross/Rocco Baldelli are a big defensive upgrade on Pat Burrell, Victorino, and Jayson Werth.

In the infield, Carlos Pena is a gold glove-caliber first baseman, Jason Bartlett, despite his struggles in the ALCS, is a defensive stud, and Evan Longoria at third and Akinori Iwamura at second are solid glove men.

Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Chase Utley matchup well with their Ray counterparts, as does Carlos Ruiz with Dioner Navarro, but it's in the outfield and at first, with Ryan Howard a mediocre defensive player, that the Rays have a big advantage.

Advantage — Rays

Bench

In Philadelphia and at DH in home games, the Rays will be able to call on Willy Aybar, one of Rocco Baldelli or Gabe Gross, Cliff Floyd, and the speedy Fernando Perez. That's significantly better than Gregg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, and So Taguchi. The Rays can bring power, speed, and defense from the bench, whereas the Phillies bench looks more one-dimensional. AL teams usually have an advantage here and this year is no exception.

Advantage — Rays

Summary

FOX executives might have been praying for a Boston/Los Angeles fall classic, but baseball fans will be more than happy to see two different and well-matched teams contesting the final series of the season.

Tampa Bay's emergence from obscurity and irrelevance has captured the imagination of every sports fan in the nation and they will be the romantic pick. Those most unromantic of people, the Vegas oddsmakers, have them as favorites, too.

The AL East is a lot harder to win than the NL East and the Rays will be battle-hardened after a nerve-wracking series against Boston, while the Phillies cruised by a weak Los Angeles and out-of-form Milwaukee.

I hope it goes the distance, but expect Bill Conlin to be bitterly attacking Charlie Manuel (again) after the Rays take it all in six.

Posted by Mike Round at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

NHL Has Been Active Early, Off Ice and On

The NHL season is only two weeks underway. Already, the makeovers have begun. A coach out. Roster spots forfeited. Promise realized, prior success not replicated. Let's take a look at some early developments.

NEW YORK

The New York Rangers are cruising. After two victories over Barry Melrose's Tampa Bay Lightning in Prague, Czech Republic, the Blueshirts, sporting what the Associated Press called looks of weariness, came into their stateside season with four points and plenty of momentum. It's materialized into a league-best 13 points and strong play all around, from Brandon Dubinksy and Aaron Voros up front to Michal Rozsival on the back end. Netminder Stephen Valiquette has backed-up Henrik Lundqvist with number one-like stats: 2-0, 3 goals against on 49 shots, a 1.44 goals-against average (GAA), and .939 save percentage.

New York may have achieved the right balance of stealthy talent (Brandon Dubinsky, Dan Girardi) and stalwart superstars (Markus Naslund, Scott Gomez, Chris Drury) that was so elusive in previous years. (Darius Kasparaitis, Eric Lindros, Pavel Bure, Bobby Holik, anyone?) That's a very good position to be in — one likely to keep the ice frozen in Madison Square Garden come playoffs.

PHILADELPHIA

In Philadelphia, the troubles will go unnoticed only as long as the Phillies' run. Sam Carchidi, Flyers beat writer for the Philadelphia Inquirer agrees, "The Flyers should be grateful that the city has turned its attention toward the World Series-bound Phillies." And for good reason: after following up their worst performance in team history in 2006-2007 by reaching last year's Eastern Conference Finals, the Flyguys are once again mopping the NHL basement with a league-worst 2 points. And those points came from overtime losses; unlike the Anaheim Ducks and Toronto Maple Leafs, whose measly 2 points came by wins over San Jose and Detroit, respectively, Philly is winless.

They blew 3-1 and 4-3 leads in the first game of a home-and-home against the San Jose Sharks on Saturday, losing 5-4 on Dan Boyle's overtime goal. "It's tough to play catchup hockey all the time. That's one of the things we've talked about. We have to be ready right from the get-go," remarked Daniel Briere, who scored twice against the Sharks. "We can't let the other team set the tempo and then adjust to that."

What remains to be seen is how GM Paul Holmgren reacts should the team's slide steepen. Gone are the days of Bobby Clarke's swift, relatively volatile hand. But Holmgren will have to act soon if it continues.

Their offense, at least, has been stable. The Flyers are enjoying production from their top four guys: Briere, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne, and Jeff Carter. But it hasn't been enough. A depleted defense — mediocre at best before injuries — has contributed to Philadelphia's 22 total goals against, second only to the Dallas Stars' 24. Substantial defensive responsibility has been placed on Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn, Broad Street's top pairing. Losing d-men Ryan Parent and Randy Jones until Christmas has hurt, and Lasse Kukkonen has struggled with puck possession so much he lost his roster spot.

Holmgren recently dealt ECHL/AHL forward Ned Lukacevic and a conditional 2009 draft pick to the Boston Bruins for defensemen Andrew Alberts. Alberts' 6'5", 220-pound frame adds physicality to the back end. That he's in the final year of his contract could help as Alberts looks to secure his future on July 1, especially given that he's been described as "error-prone." (His $1.25 million salary gives Philly $2.7 million in cap space with its team salary now at $53.4 mil due to Parent, Jones, and Derian Hatcher being on the long-term IR.)

It remains to be seen if this will be enough. If not, Philly may have to part with a higher caliber player to compensate for a top-tier defenseman. If so, will Carter's name spin through yet another cycle of trade rumors?

CHICAGO

The Chicago Blackhawks, fresh from their first 40-win season in six years, but with no postseason games to tout, showed coach Denny Savard the door. A curious move after just four games? "It's about moving forward, about achieving and winning ... and we felt we needed a more experienced person in that position," said GM Dave Tallon. Savard — a Hall of Famer who played 13 of 18 seasons in Chi-town — was brought on as a development coach before ascending as an assistant behind the bench in 1997.

"It was a flat camp and we got out of the gate flat," lamented Tallon. So, begins the Joel Quenneville era. After stints heading the St. Louis Blues and Colorado Avalanche, Chicago hired Quenneville as a pro scout in the offseason. His promotion came quickly. Quenneville's past became a clearer advantage as the Hawks struggled in the Central Division. ''It's so tough in our own division,'' said Senior Adviser to Hockey Operations Scotty Bowman. ''You have (Mike) Babcock in Detroit, (Barry) Trotz in Nashville, (Ken) Hitchcock in Columbus, and Andy Murray in St. Louis. They all have upwards of 10 years (of experience).''

The Hawks won their second game under Quenneville's tutelage, defeating the underachieving Vancouver Canucks 4-2.

VANCOUVER

Which brings us to Roberto Luongo. Just before the year started, Vancouver Coach Alain Vigneault made Luongo the first goaltending captain of an NHL club since Montreal's Bill Durnan in 1947-48. He won't wear the C — per league policy — but neither will anyone else. Yet, that theoretical "C" must be adding weight to No. 1's jersey.

After three stellar post-lockout years where he won no less than 35 games, including a record matching 47-win campaign in 2006-2007 (tying Flyer-great Bernie Parent for second most wins ever in a season; that same year New Jersey's Martin Brodeur set the record with 48), Luongo's holes have been exposed early on. "The red lights behind the Canucks' goal have been giving off a despicable glare," says Tony Gallagher of the Vancouver Province. "On this [road] trip, it's been sapping the U.S. energy supply."

Vancouver is 3-3-0 and, at the moment, is losing 3-1 to the Columbus Blue Jackets — good enough for fourth in the Northwest Division. Thus far, Luongo has allowed 16 goals on 140 shots, with a save percentage of .886, and a GAA of 3.40 (ranked 42nd in the NHL). Granted, the Canucks haven't played strongly in front of the cage, but Luongo has been the insurance against polluted play — a goaltender remunerated handsomely for his ability to defend the part of the rink his teammates fail to.

That's the reason Luongo is ranked third among goalies by Yahoo! Sports and resides on the "Can't Cut" list. But if he continues to play like Swiss cheese, Luongo could soon be watching Curtis Sanford occupy his crease. It could be a long winter in British Columbia.

LONG WAY TO GO...

But fret not, the season is only an eighth of the way gone; more than 70 games are on the way. The All-Star Break will be upon us in no time, and the standings and stat sheets could, and likely will, look very different. We'll check back in a few weeks once teams have settled and trends begin to signal more definitive directions for clubs destined to make the playoffs and those preparing to dust off the golf clubs.

Posted by Jeff DiNunzio at 11:04 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 32

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson won his third straight fall Martinsville race, leading 339 of 504 laps to win the Tums QuikPak 500. With four races remaining in the Chase, Johnson has a 149-point lead over second-place Greg Biffle.

"I'm not taking anything for granted just yet," says Johnson. "As they say, 'The fat lady's not singing, but she is warming up.' Besides, she's got a couple of stops to make before she sings in honor of my third Cup title. First, she has to be sexually harassed by a few rogue NASCAR officials, then she has to pay a visit to Tony Stewart's hauler."

2. Greg Biffle — Biffle's decision to stay out during a caution on lap 161 led to a green-flag stop on lap 248, which put him a lap down. Not until lap 485 was he able to cash in the Lucky Dog free pass, leaving him few laps to make up ground. He eventually finished 12th and passed Jeff Burton for second place in the point standings, but trails Jimmie Johnson by 149 points.

"Jimmie always has that killer instinct at Martinsville," says Biffle. "Unlike Carl Edwards, Jimmie knows exactly when the right time to 'go for the throat' is."

3. Jeff Burton — Burton's Cup hopes, burning bright after last week's win in Charlotte, dimmed considerably after he overshot his pit stall during a caution with 40 laps to go. The one-lap penalty dropped Burton to 18th and he was able to gain one spot by race's end. Burton fell one spot in the point standings to third, 152 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"They say the hot dogs at Martinsville are delicious," says Burton. "The famous hot dog is just one of the many items available at the concession stand. Answer me this, though. Does the concession stand sell concession speeches?

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished third in Martinsville, breaking up a Hendrick sweep of the top three, with Jimmie Johnson winning, followed by Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in second, and Jeff Gordon in fourth. Edwards held on to the fourth spot in the points, 198 behind Johnson.

"It's all over but the crying," says Edwards. "Believe me, I know strangleholds, and Jimmie's got a stranglehold on the Cup title."

"I'm just happy that I didn't clash with someone or something for the first time in four weeks. First, in Kansas, I knocked the wall. Then, at Talladega, it was Greg Biffle's bumper. In Charlotte, Kevin Harvick's throat had to go and get in my way."

5. Kevin Harvick: Harvick posted a solid seventh in the Tums QuikPak 500, his fourth top-10 finish of the Chase and 16th of the year. Loose handling conditions kept Harvick from challenging up front, but his seventh matched his best Cup result in Martinsville. He remained sixth in the Cup point standings, 256 behind Johnson.

"The infield at Martinsville Speedway is very cramped," says Harvick. "So the chances of Carl Edwards and I crossing paths was quite likely. That's why I chose to wear my HANS device not only while in the car, but around my garage, as well. I, more than anyone, understand the importance of neck protection."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished fourth in Martinsville, as Hendrick Motorsports drivers took three of the top-four spots, with Jimmie Johnson winning to pad his points lead to a comfortable 149 points. Gordon moved up to seventh in the points, and trails Johnson by 275.

"I think the most impressive thing about Jimmie's ascension to the top," says Gordon, "is that he's done it without stepping on anyone's toes, which is surprising, because Jimmie's got huge feet. And you know what they say about guys with big feet? They know how to 'step on it.'"

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt was unable to catch Hendrick teammate Jimmie Johnson as the laps dwindled at Martinsville, instead settling for second, his best finish in six Chase races. Earnhardt advanced one place in the points to ninth, and trails Johnson by 379.

"Hey, why don't we cut to the 'Chase,'" says Earnhardt, "and go ahead and give Jimmie the Cup. And, while we're at it, we might as well rename the 'Chase' the 'Follow,' since that's all we're doing."

8. Tony Stewart — Tire issues dictated Stewart's day in Martinsville, as flat tires on two separate occasions left him four laps down and in 26th place. He dropped one spot to eight in the Sprint Cup point standings, where he trails Jimmie Johnson by 338.

"The year in racing has had it all," says Stewart. "First, there was Aaron Fike 'chasing dragons,' then there was me 'chasing tail.' Finally, you've got Jimmie chasing the Cup."

9. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer finished ninth in Martinsville and maintained the fifth spot in the Cup point standings. He trails Jimmie Johnson by 242 points.

"Fans of the Jack Daniels car aren't that impressed by Johnson's lead," says Bowyer. "What good is a firm grip on the Cup without a firm grip on the bottle?"

10. Matt Kenseth — Despite an early spin that left his car damaged and a lap down, Kenseth and the No. 17 crew battled their way back for an unlikely eighth-place finish. He moved up one place in the points to 10th, where he is 408 out of first.

"You could say I was 'all over the place,'" says Kenseth. "But the 'Killer B's' really came through for me in the pits. We're not tossing in the towel just yet, but the arm is cocked for an easy throw when the time comes. We're 408 points behind Jimmie, so catching him is not likely. But if he takes a few races off, he could be caught. And when I say 'takes a few races off,' I mean it literally. Jimmie would have to not race at all for us to have a chance."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

October 21, 2008

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Rather than giving a job to every ex-player who wants one, I'd like to see ESPN find a small group of smart people and just stick to them. Why do they need different analysts for every show?

* Yes, the former player prompting this is Trent Dilfer. He's the new Sean Salisbury.

* The coach-QB combo of Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb has more regular-season wins than the combination of Bill Walsh and Joe Montana.

* Not only did Brad Johnson pass poorly on Sunday, he did a terrible job on defense. Johnson didn't tackle Steven Jackson once! Tony Romo would have tackled Jackson on that 56-yard TD run, and probably sacked Marc Bulger a couple times.

* Cheers to FOX for cutting away from the rout in St. Louis to show viewers the more competitive Giants/Niners game. But can we please see some teams who aren't in the NFC East once in a while?

***

The media has turned on the Dallas Cowboys. Everybody's champions after two weeks, now ESPN devotes 18 hours a day to bashing them. It's the coach's fault. It's the assistant coaches' fault. It's Jerry Jones' fault. It's Terrell Owens' fault. Or Adam Jones. Or his evil twin, Pacman. Or everyone.

There's blame to go around, but what's certain is that Dallas is in trouble. Their last good game was in Week 3, and they're dealing with a lot of injuries right now, not to mention the suspension of Adam Jones. I've never been sure how important team chemistry is, but the Cowboys don't have any. I think that falls mostly on the owner, but everyone's culpable, including the fickle media.

I don't know what to do about chemistry (trade Owens and give Wade Phillips a contract extension), but on the field, my advice is to run the ball a lot. Dallas has shown some problems with pass protection in the last few games, but their run-blocking is terrific. A strong rushing attack will protect both the defense and whoever plays quarterback. And when Felix Jones is healthy again, he should replace Marion Barber as the primary ball-carrier. Jones is more explosive, and Barber has fumble-itis. I'm not saying Barber should sit, but Jones should get 50-60% of the carries.

As we get to the power rankings, I want to remind readers that rankings are for right now, a team's current strength. Week 1 is ancient history, and no one's the same team they were a month ago. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Tennessee Titans [1] — Could Tennessee send two running backs to the Pro Bowl? Rookie Chris Johnson (549 yards, 5.3 avg) should be a lock, and LenDale White (314 yards, 8 TD) might have a case, too. Johnson leads the AFC in rushing, and White leads the NFL in touchdowns.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [5] — Injuries in the offensive backfield are starting to mount, but if the Buccaneers can get their running game back on track to close out games with some authority, I don't see any reason Tampa can't be the NFC's version of the Titans.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers [4] — Sunday was the first game all season that Ben Roethlisberger didn't get sacked. If the Steelers can keep Big Ben on his feet, they can compete with anyone, because the defense is fantastic: first in sacks, first in pass defense, second in rush defense, second in points allowed. I had Pittsburgh up to second in the rankings, but with Bryant McFadden and Troy Polamalu hurt, they drop a spot.

4. New York Giants [2] — Next week's game at Pittsburgh will be decided by the defensive coordinators. The Giants' Steve Spagnuolo has to treat Roethlisberger the way Philadelphia did, and if he can figure out how to get to Big Ben consistently, New York will probably win. Look for Justin Tuck to line up inside more often than usual. Conversely, Pittsburgh's Dick LeBeau has to make Eli Manning uncomfortable and force him into mistakes. Whoever is more effective will win the game.

5. Washington Redskins [3] — This is nuts: they're seventh in total offense, but 24th in scoring. Why can't they turn production into points? For starters, field position: Washington's special teams have been among the worst in the league this season, and they're more of a three-and-out defense than a big-play unit, so Washington isn't getting great field position from interceptions and fumble recoveries. The other factors fall on the offense: not enough big plays, and inconsistency on third down (38%).

6. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — Since this was their bye week, how about a shout-out for the punter? Sav Rocca is third in the NFL in net punting average (41.9), and has 10 punts downed inside the 20-yard line, with only one touchback. Rocca should be the early front-runner for NFC Pro Bowl punter.

7. Carolina Panthers [12] — Is this the NFC's best defense? Statistically, no: the Giants are allowing ½-yard per game less than Carolina. All the same, I think it's probably the NFC's best defense. I suspect that Drew Brees thinks so, too. Their home game against Arizona in Week 8 is a must-see for serious NFL fans, but most markets won't carry it because of local games and Saints/Chargers at Wembley Stadium.

8. Arizona Cardinals [8] — Lead the NFL in scoring (29.5 points per game). Barring injury, you have to think Kurt Warner will be the starter not only for the rest of this season, but in 2009, as well. What do they do with Matt Leinart? Ever since the Chargers got themselves into that Drew Brees/Philip Rivers situation a few years back, it seems like everyone who drafts a quarterback in the first round is running into this problem.

9. Buffalo Bills [9] — Trent Edwards has a higher passer rating this season than Drew Brees. In fact, he's higher than everyone except Rivers, Warner, and Tony Romo. I don't think Edwards belongs in the top tier of NFL QBs yet, but he's having a really nice season.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars [10] — If the NFL suspends leading receiver Matt Jones, Jacksonville is going to be awfully thin at WR. The position was never a strength to begin with, but Jones is the team's unquestioned top receiver, and Mike Walker, who is third on the team in receiving yards, is out indefinitely with a knee infection.

11. San Diego Chargers [7] — In 2006, when they went 14-2, the Chargers ranked fifth in the NFL in time of possession. Last season (11-5), they were 16th in time of possession. This season, they rank 29th. That's what happens when you can't run the ball (26th in rushing), but San Diego also ranks last in the NFL in pass defense. They miss Shawne Merriman.

12. Atlanta Falcons [18] — I was unsatisfied with their 18th-place ranking last week, so they get an unconscionable six-place boost during their bye week, and now they're probably too high. The Falcons went 4-12 last season, and I don't understand how they're so good this year, but I do think it's for real. Matt Ryan is off to a nice start, but I suspect most of the credit should go to new head coach Mike Smith.

13. Chicago Bears [11] — The over/under for their game against Minnesota was 38 points. Actual number: 89, the most ever scored in a Bears/Vikings contest. Chicago is one of several teams who surprisingly have an offense that is doing better — at least statistically — than its defense. What I really don't understand, though, is how they finished +4 in turnovers on Sunday, but only won by a touchdown.

14. Green Bay Packers [21] — Aaron Rodgers continues to handle himself extremely well. That's true both on and off the field. As a quarterback, he's 7th in passing yards, t-5th in TDs, and 5th in passer rating, plus he leads all QBs in rushing touchdowns. Rodgers also conducts himself like a pro during interviews and press conferences. He still has to answer questions about Brett Favre every week, and he always handles them with class and dignity. If Rodgers can stay healthy, the Packers have themselves a franchise quarterback.

15. Indianapolis Colts [17] — Lost by 20 points for only the second time during Tony Dungy's 6½-year tenure. I hate to repeat something you already know, but the culprits are the ground game (32nd in rushing) and run defense (28th), plus a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns (ouch).

16. New Orleans Saints [15] — I'm all for showing American football to an international community, but these London games are a real problem. The Saints and Chargers both had tough games this weekend, so maybe they would have lost anyway, but the distraction of preparing for an overseas trip probably played a role. It's not fair to the teams that have to fly over there.

17. Denver Broncos [13] — Sunk by injuries. If Jay Cutler, Selvin Young, and Champ Bailey had all stayed healthy, I'm not even sure they would have lost on Monday night. That may sound ridiculous after a 41-7 beatdown, but Cutler had his worst game of the season, Young's replacement lost two key fumbles, and Randy Moss caught fire after Bailey left. This ranking assumes that Cutler and Bailey can play next week. I think Cutler will be fine, but if Bailey is not, I think they're more like 20th instead of 17th.

18. Baltimore Ravens [19] — Derrick Mason probably won't make the Pro Bowl this season. He's eighth in the AFC in both receptions (33) and receiving yards (418), and he only has one touchdown. But I'm not sure any wide receiver means more to his team. No other Raven has more than 13 catches or 129 receiving yards, and Joe Flacco has only thrown one TD pass that wasn't to Mason. I'm voting for him.

19. Dallas Cowboys [14] — This past offseason, coordinators Jason Garrett (offense) and Brian Stewart (defense) were hot head coaching prospects. This season, they don't look ready for prime time. Garrett is calling way too many passes, and having trouble getting the ball to Terrell Owens anyway. Stewart's defense has become so predictable that head coach Wade Phillips may take over the game-day defensive calls.

20. New England Patriots [23] — When he was being carted off the field on Monday night, Rodney Harrison looked like he thought his career was over. If so, I'll miss him. Harrison was a terrific safety, and I hope he'll make the Hall of Fame one day. He only played in two Pro Bowls, but he had a lot of seasons as the second- or third-best safety in the AFC, and he was my Defensive Player of the Year in 2003. As always, my best wishes to an injured player.

21. Cleveland Browns [20] — Derek Anderson isn't getting a lot of help from his teammates, but they're not getting a lot of help from him, either. If Brady Quinn can play, I think he probably should.

22. Minnesota Vikings [16] — It has become apparent that they have a real problem on special teams. Minnesota is ranked 8th in total defense, but 20th in scoring defense. Some of that is a nasty -4 turnover margin, but some of it is Reggie Bush punt returns and Chris Kluwe muffed snaps. I am pretty impressed that the Vikings managed to score 41 points in a game in which they threw four interceptions.

23. Houston Texans [24] — Would you believe they have the fifth-ranked offense in the NFL? The defense is a bad-but-not-terrible 22nd. So how have they been outscored by 39 points and started 2-4? Turnovers: they're a league-worst -9.

24. St. Louis Rams [28] — I like what their defense has done the past two weeks. You wouldn't have known it the first four weeks, but there are some pretty good players here. Leonard Little and O.J. Atogwe are legitimate Pro Bowl candidates.

25. New York Jets [22] — Brett Favre is closing in on a dubious record. Favre has 8 interceptions this year, second-most in the NFL. His career total is 296, already the most in history, and he's quickly approaching 300. You heard it here first: Favre's record for most interceptions will never be broken.

26. Miami Dolphins [25] — Has any team been as uneven this season as the Dolphins? They beat the Chargers and blew out the Patriots, but they lost to the Jets and Texans. Ronnie Brown has rushed over 100 yards twice and hasn't broken 50 in the other four games. They're 0-3 when Chad Pennington has an interception.

27. Oakland Raiders [29] — I hate icing the kicker. It's a waste of time. One of these days, why don't coaches just let that first missed field goal count?

28. San Francisco 49ers [26] — I never understood why Mike Nolan got a head coaching job in the first place, but I hate that the 49ers fired him in the middle of a season. The only time that's okay is if a coach has totally lost the locker room, or if he goes to jail or something. In St. Louis, Scott Linehan really had lost his players, and I understand why the Rams replaced him. Al Davis canned his coach in Oakland out of ego, greed, or dementia. And the 49ers, like the Raiders, are just a dysfunctional organization now. It starts at the top. This team hasn't been the same since Eddie DeBartolo was forced to sell the franchise, and now they're turning into the Bengals.

29. Seattle Seahawks [27] — Two straight games with under 100 yards passing. Remember how the Week 4 bye was supposed to fix their wide receiver problems? Since then, Seattle's best single-game passing performance netted 122 yards.

30. Kansas City Chiefs [31] — When your third-string quarterback is your leading rusher in a game, you are not going to win that game.

31. Cincinnati Bengals [30] — Last year, the problem was defense. This season, the defense still sucks, but the bigger problem is offense. The Bengals rank in the NFL's bottom three in passing, rushing, and scoring. They are dead last in yards per play, with an abysmal 3.7 — a full half-yard worse than 31st-place Kansas City.

32. Detroit Lions [32] — How crappy is Drew Stanton? He was Detroit's second-round pick in the 2007 draft, but he's backing up Dan Orlovsky. This isn't one of those Warner/Leinart scenarios. If Stanton has any kind of future, let him play.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

Trouble in Terrapin Land?

Gary Williams was on top of the world in 2002. After his team captured the national championship that year finishing 32-4, Williams stood on a stage in historic Cole Field House and raised the Siemens Trophy. He was among rabid Maryland supporters who saw the culmination of his 13-year journey to bring Maryland back to prominence in the college basketball world.

It was a long time coming for Williams, who for years saw his team run into a brick wall at the Sweet 16 in the tourney and could never seem to break through. Now he had finally broken the tape the first, something he had seen too often done by his ACC counterparts, Mike Krzyzewski and Dean Smith. Williams was Susan Lucci on the 1999 Daytime Emmys three years before Roy Williams was.

Things aren't quite as rosy in College Park for Williams these days. In the six years since winning the national title, Maryland has struggled to recapture the magic that lead them to the Final Four in back-to-back years in 2001 and 2002. They've lost in the second round of the Big Dance twice since then, to Syracuse and then Butler. Even worse, the Terps have failed to make the tournament three out of the last four years, and were relegated to the NIT. In 2006, they suffered an embarrassing loss in their opener to Manhattan before a sparse crowd at the Comcast Center with fans fearing that the program was heading for a period of mediocrity. It was something Maryland fans weren't used to after getting to the Sweet 16 four times between 1994 and 1999, then back-to-back Final Fours culminating in the title under the tutelage of Williams.

It has been a long road back for Gary and Maryland. Legendary coach Charles "Lefty" Driesell resigned after the death of Maryland star Len Bias, who died of a drug overdose less than 48 hours after he was drafted by the Boston Celtics with the second overall pick of the 1986 draft. Bob Wade, who was a highly successful coach at Baltimore's Dunbar High School, took over for Driesell and could only build a 36-50 record in three years as coach before resigning. Along with his resignation, there came allegations that Wade and his staff at Maryland dealt improperly with players and recruits. As a result of this, the program received heavy NCAA sanctions and was placed on temporary probation. The proud program that once featured players like John Lucas, Len Elmore, Buck Williams, and Albert King was sinking to the bottom fast.

Enter Gary Williams, a Maryland alumnus who played point guard with the Terps and had moderate success coaching at American, Boston College, and Ohio State. He returned to College Park to guide the program back on track and clean up the mess. After making moderate progress in helping Maryland get to the NIT in his first year, Williams endured three treacherous campaigns from 1990 to 1993 that ended with a 2-14 dismal season in the ACC that landed the Terps dead-last in the conference. But with the temperature of his seat getting warmer, Williams pulled the rabbit out the hat by signing two huge recruits in 1993: current assistant coach Keith Booth and a talented kid out of Virginia named Joe Smith.

Booth, who starred at Dunbar, broke the "drought" of Baltimore City star players not going to Maryland after Wade's resignation. Meanwhile, Smith was a highly-touted recruit who got away from Duke and North Carolina. The impact of Smith and Booth, along with returning starters Duane Simpkins, Johnny Rhodes, and Exree Hipp, brought Maryland to a surprising 18-12 regular season record and a Cinderella story where they landed in the Sweet 16 of the 1994 NCAA tournament. Smith lead the 1994-95 team to a share of regular season ACC crown and back to the Sweet 16 in a year that he also won the Naismith Award for the Player of the Year in college basketball. Williams had the Terps back on track and into the tournament on an annual basis. Recruits were coming in and Maryland cemented itself as a mainstay at the top of the ACC standings with Duke and North Carolina. However, Williams' best job possibly came when he took the program to the next level.

If there was any knock on Williams early, it was that Maryland met consistent success getting to the tournament and advancing, but would always met their demise in the Sweet 16. In the eight-year run, leading up to the 2000-01 season, the Terps never reached past the Sweet 16, and it this stigma was sticking with Williams and his teams. The breakthrough came in 2001, where in the Sweet 16, they defeated Georgetown and then upset the West Region No. 1 seed Stanford to reach the first Final Four in school history, lead by Juan Dixon, Steve Blake, and Lonny Baxter. Not since the 1957-58 season did the Terps reach past the Sweet 16 into the Elite. Gary Williams, who was known as good coach, was putting himself into the upper echelon of college basketball maestros.

After the national championship, Maryland seemed as if it would be in the conversation for quite some time. They opened a new basketball facility, the Comcast Center, in 2002 that was way more state-of-the art than the reliable Cole Field House. Gary began to sign the All-Americans that avoided Maryland for so long and the support and excitement for the program was at an all-time high.

After a couple of years of making it back to the tournament, however, the decline came hurdling down like a brick off the top of the Sears Tower. The rocket blast into the stratosphere of success wasn't as smooth a ride as Williams expected. A couple of All-American recruits, including Travis Garrison, didn't exactly pan out as expected and the competition in the ACC got tougher. Suddenly, in 2005, as the end of the year came, Williams and the Terps found themselves out of the NCAA tournament for the first time in 12 years.

Everyone expected Maryland to get back on track, but the feat repeated itself the next year, followed by an embarrassing loss in the first round of the NIT, which lead to fans booing the Terps off the floor. After reaching the tournament in 2007 and losing in the second round to Butler, Williams and his squad had an up-and-down season where they finished 19-15 and .500 in conference, and headed to the NIT again, this time being ousted by Syracuse.

Now heading into his 19th season, Williams almost finds himself back in the same predicament when he first came back to College Park. Getting Maryland back on track in the much more competitive ACC than when he first started will be a difficult task. North Carolina is a sure lock of a favorite to win not only the ACC, but the national title, Duke will always be a factor with Coach K at the helm, and teams such as Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), and Boston College will challenge for prime positions come tournament time. The challenge stands taller than anything that Williams has faced in his tenure at his alma mater.

If there is a coach that can do it, however, it is Gary Williams. He took over Maryland at a juncture that could have damaged the program more than usual. He's brought the morale and pride back to a school that was viewed as second-fiddle to North Carolina and Duke in the ACC. In the big games, he knows how to get his teams motivated to play. In his tenure at Maryland, no other program has registered more upsets of top-five teams and No. 1-ranked teams than the Terps. Teams such as Florida, Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina (multiple times) have all fallen to Maryland while ranked No. 1 in the polls. The hurdle for Williams and Maryland is to balance out the highs and maintain consistency.

This year's squad will be lead by Eric Hayes, Landon Milbourne, and the ultimately talented Greivis Vasquez. After losing two major post-players in James Gist and Bambale Osby, the Terps head into this season a bit undersized and possibly overmatched in the tough ACC. But if the past is any indicator, it's when Maryland and Gary Williams have their backs against the wall in front of the improbable that they come out fighting the hardest.

Posted by Brian Cox at 10:38 AM | Comments (3)

October 20, 2008

82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season (Pt. 4)

Also see: Pt. 1 | Pt. 2 | Pt. 3

In the past three installments of our countdown of the "82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season," I've examined some of the league's biggest stars, its biggest potential future stars, and who could walk away with the league's biggest individual awards.

Now, with the season a mere eight days away, we will continue our countdown by examining the Western Conference and the projected record for each team.

In reverse order of predicted finish, they are:

Lottery Teams

30. Minnesota Timberwolves

I don't want to give the impression that being addicted to the NBA League Pass is a bad thing, it really isn't. I mean, you get to watch any NBA game you want. It doesn't get much better than that.

But there are downsides, too. For example, sometimes the only game not at commercial is the Timberwolves game and you get stuck watching them for up to as many as three-to-five minutes at a time. Trust me, it's not pretty.

However, had it not been for this rare phenomenon I would have missed my favorite League Pass moment of the 2007-08 season.

After Sebastian Telfair sailed a behind-the-back pass over the scorers table and into the second or third row, the T-Wolves play-by-play announcer casually remarked, "Sebastian told us before the game to expect more flashy plays than usual from him tonight because his mother is in attendance."

I'm not exactly sure what stage of the rebuilding process "showing off for your mom with ridiculous behind-the-back passes" is, but I'm guessing Kevin McHale still has a lot of things to cross off his list before he gets back to "reach the playoffs".

Projected record: 21-61

29. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizz might not be on LeBron's radar of free agent destinations when his contract expires, but they did do a nice job of dumping salaries by trading away Pau Gasol and Mike Miller. Sure, they didn't get anything remotely close to a legit NBA player back in either deal, but they are trying. At least saving up a bunch of money to throw at free agents down the road is some sort of a strategy.

They have a logjam at the guard position, so expect them to move some players and continue to rebuild as the season goes along. If they can keep acquiring draft picks and keep cap space available for the next few summers there is some hope in Memphis.

Hope is a good motivational tool for second-year head coach Marc Iavaroni to use, which is why they'll be way better than Minnesota.

Projected record: 22-60

28. Sacramento Kings

"Hang Time's" Reggie Theus will probably be the unfortunate victim of rebuilding for this Kings team. It's not his fault that he inherited a team that desperately needed an identity change with a front office that had its heart set on making drastic changes.

It's not his fault that the kings traded away Ron Artest and Mike Bibby in his first calendar year on the job, basically assuring another trip to the lottery.

However, coaching success is based simply on winning games, and there is no way this Kings team matches its win total of 38 from a year ago. A coach can't take over a sub-.500 team and decrease the amount of wins in his second season and expect to keep his job.

It's not Theus' fault what's happening in Sacramento, but he'll certainly take the fall. My guess is he'll be the first coach fired this season, and it'll happen by Christmas.

Projected record: 26-56

27. Oklahoma City Thunder

I know, it's just as weird to write it out as it is to say it, but we'll get past this. It's like writing out a check in January, you always want to date it with the previous year out of habit, but eventually it becomes so ingrained that you need to add the extra digit at the end that it becomes second nature. The preseason is just like writing checks in January, it'll get easier.

As for the team itself, I'll admit it's tough to put a positive spin on going 2-18 in the month of March, but look at it this way: they went undefeated in April (2-0).

All kidding aside, I do like the direction in which this team is heading. In part two of our preview I compared Kevin Durant's rookie stats to those of the top-five scorers in the league from last season. I fully expect Durant to continue to improve and be an elite scorer this year, finishing in the top 10 in points per game. He's that talented.

You can make the excuse that the Sonics rookies ran out of gas late last year having dealt with the grind of an 82-game season for the first time, but both Green and Durant finished with better scoring and rebounding numbers in the second half of the season.

Though they may be a long way from prominence, the Thunder decided to commit to rebuilding last year, their willingness to take a few on the chin in order to get their young guys NBA experience is an example, and I fully expect that to pay off this season.

Thirty wins may be an embarrassment for some teams, but it's a 10-game improvement for the Thunder. Baby steps.

Projected record: 30-52

26. Golden State Warriors

Last season, the Warriors won 48 games, a total that would have been good for fourth best in the East, but found themselves at ninth and on the outside looking in at the Western Conference Playoffs.

Normally, that would be enough to keep anyone optimistic; not team president Robert Rowell. Rowell hasn't extended the contracts of head coach Don Nelson or GM Chris Mullin, both of which expire at the end of this season, which is a pretty good indication that he already knows who is taking the blame if the warriors fail to make the playoffs again.

The lineup that Nelson used to get the 48 wins will look significantly different this time around having lost Baron Davis (free agency) and Monta Ellis (moped). The Warriors spent nearly $180 million on free agents this offseason, but unless Nelson can find a diamond in the rough at point guard to carry this team until Ellis returns, Nellyball could be making its farewell tour this season.

Projected record: 38-44

25. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers had the most action of any team this offseason. There was the Elton Brand/Baron Davis saga; the Elton Brand/Mike Dunleavy saga; the Corey Maggette saga. There were a lot of sagas.

But once all the offseason chaos was settled, the Clippers actually made out pretty well. Despite losing Elton Brand in curious if not overly dramatic fashion, the Clippers still managed to add Baron Davis, Marcus Camby, and Ricky Davis without having to give up virtually anything.

The possibility of Baron Davis running the break along with Ricky Davis and second year player Al Thorton has the Clippers poised to be a very potent offense team. Combine that with the fact that Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman are a more than formidable duo protecting the rim, and all the sudden, this team starts to look scary.

Alas, they are still the Clippers. Despite the fact that they got better this offseason, they still left open the possibility of failure. Clipper fans can be optimistic about Baron Davis and Marcus Camby all they'd like, but the fact is it would take a small miracle to get these two guys on the floor 70 times together.

The West is too deep for a mediocre-to-begin-with-team to overcome any injury problems. The Clippers only hope to sneak out an eight-seed is to keep those two players healthy all year. Good luck with that.

Projected record: 41-41

24. Denver Nuggets

If I was a player, I'd want to play for George Karl. He seems like a pretty cool guy. His offense gives his players a lot of freedom to be creative. And I bet he can tell some pretty funny stories.

But the most important reason I'd want to play for George Karl is because never, under any circumstance, does he expect you to play defense. Now that's a system I can buy into.

How adamant is Karl that defense is overrated? The Nuggets just gave Marcus Camby to the Clippers this offseason. Just gave him away for option to swap second round picks two years from now.

Call me crazy, but a team that finished last season giving up the second most points in the league, then got swept in the first round by the Lakers who averaged 115 points per contest in their brief series, shouldn't be just giving away their best defensive player.

This team was the only team to make the Western Conference playoffs last year that I never considered to be the least bit of a threat. They did nothing to improve their situation in the offseason.

The Nuggets are still talented enough on offense to run lesser teams out of the gym, but just don't have the size or depth to compete with the big boys in the West. They'll win some games, just not enough.

Projected record: 43-39

Playoff Teams

23. Dallas Mavericks

Say what you want about Mark Cuban, but his teams will always be interesting. He rolled the dice last season at the trade deadline by spending a small fortune and bringing in Jason Kidd. The trade was pretty much a disaster, leading to a stretch of about three months where the Mavericks couldn't beat a team with a winning record and then capped it off with a pretty lackluster 4-1 series defeat against the Hornets.

That prompted the firing of the "Little General" Avery Johnson (or "the Little Dictator," as Dirk Nowitzki calls him) this offseason. Johnson has been replaced by journeyman head coach Rick Carlisle who vows to open up the offense and let Jason Kidd control the floor.

A coaching change is a subtle move that a team can make to improve its existing roster. Nothing about Mark Cuban is subtle. With players like Jason Kidd, Jerry Stackhouse, Erick Dampier, and Devean George all playing on contracts that other teams covet, expect to see more fireworks from Cuban this February if the Mavs don't get off to a great start.

Projected record: 46-36

22. Phoenix Suns

Could this be the end of the run-and-gun Suns? Swapping out Shawn Marion for Shaq last season was a big step towards slowing things down, but it may have only been the first step.

After Suns GM Steve Kerr fired head coach Mike D'Antoni and brought in Pistons assistant Terry Porter, he should have given a eulogy for the "Seven Seconds or Less" style offense right then and there.

With 30-somethings Shaq, Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Raja Bell all figuring to play prominent roles this season, slow and steady may be the only way Phoenix to has enough left in the tank come April to compete in the West.

Expect a drop off in victories while they adjust to their new style, but don't expect the Suns to just completely go away. They still boast one of the most talented starting fives in the league.

Projected record: 47-35

21. Portland Trail Blazers

Portland was the feel good story of the 2007-08 season with its early 13-game winning streak, but this year is the real test to see if Portland is ready to be taken seriously as playoff contenders.

Portland flirted briefly with the playoffs last year before losing seven of the last 10 and finishing at .500, well out of contention. Now that the young Blazers have a year of experience under their belt and the return of Greg Oden looming, Portland is poised to be a team to be reckoned with out West.

The tandem of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden has limitless potential. These two could easily produce very similar to the production that Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade gave the Miami Heat in 2006. Wade averaged 27 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds per game, while Shaq was good for 20 and 9 and played in 59 games.

I can't say I'd be the least bit shocked if Oden averaged 20 and 9 this year and only played in 59 games. And Brandon Roy may have only averaged 19 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds last year, but this is his third season and he could primed for a huge year.

Remember, Wade's 2006 campaign was also his third season. I'm not going as far as to call Roy and Oden Wade and Shaq just yet, but you've been warned.

Projected record: 50-32

20. San Antonio Spurs

You know about this team. You think they're boring. You think they're old. You think their window is closing.

They don't care what you think; they're just going to keep winning, the same way that they've just kept winning for the past decade.

You know how you can tell when people stop caring about what other people think: they look like this.

That's right, Pop has gone to the "Robin Williams in 'Good Will Hunting'" look just to rub in the fact that it kills the casual fan the "boring Spurs" are really good.

It doesn't matter a whole heck of a lot that Manu Ginobili is out (he missed some time last year, too), the Spurs will again reach the 50-win mark for the ninth straight season.

Projected record: 53-29

19. Utah Jazz

I keep waiting for Utah to have a breakthrough season; one where Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer each reach their maximum potential and the Jazz become as unstoppable an offensive team as we've seen in a long time.

Last year looked like it had all the makings for the Jazz, coming off a season in which they advanced all the way to the conference finals. They seemed poised to take that last step towards a title, learning from their missteps the previous season.

Yet the Jazz regressed, getting bounced by the Lakers in the second round of the playoffs. Sure, there's no shame in losing to the eventual conference champion, but for a team on the cusp of a title taking a step backwards is a pretty big letdown.

Now, unbelievably because their all-world point guard Deron Williams is all of 24-years-old, all of a sudden this could be Utah's last chance. If Carlos Boozer packs his things and bolts out of Utah after this season, the Jazz could be in real trouble. They may have another 10 years of greatness left from Williams, but this team could very well be the best chance he ever gets at winning a title. It's not easy to replace 21 points and 11 rebounds.

If Williams and Boozer become completely unstoppable (not impossible), the Jazz could finally be the breakout team out West I've been waiting for. If not, and Boozer decides he's had enough of the Jazz, it's back to the drawing board once again for Jerry Sloan.

Projected record 55-27

18. Houston Rockets

It looks like someone in Houston has finally decided that the window is closing and has gone all in. The window for what is debatable, however.

You can't exactly call the time Yao and Tracey McGrady have spent together a championship window (champions actually win a playoff series), but certainly the potential was there.

Now, with T-Mac set to turn 30 on May 24 (or "the week I start my summer vacation" as he should call it) and Yao having just turned 28, it's apparent that the Rockets feel they have one last chance to remove the title of "most underachieving team in the history of the NBA."

(In the history of the NBA, has there ever been an older 30-year-old than McGrady? It's like he was pieced together with Larry Bird's back, Patrick Ewing's knees, and Sandy Koufax's shoulder.)

Sensing that desperation might be the only way to salvage something out of this group, the Rockets got drastic this offseason by acquiring Ron Artest. There's no denying that Artest has immense talent that will no doubt help the Rockets win a lot of games this year. He's also most likely certifiably insane and has the potential to split the already delicate franchise in two.

Either way, the Rockets have as much talent if not more than any other team in the league and will put that talent to use to accumulate a lot of regular season wins. Even if they only get 50 games apiece from their big three, it should equate to a pretty big spike in the win total. Sure, the odds of all three of those guys (Artest, McGrady, Yao) being healthy enough for a big playoff push is about 1,000-1, but at least they're poised for a big regular season.

Projected record: 58-24

17. New Orleans Hornets

This is the playoff team most likely increase its win total by five games. The Hornets won 56 games last season and tied for the second best record in the Western Conference. They edged out San Antonio in a tiebreaker for the Southwest division title, only to get beat on their home floor by those same Spurs in the playoffs.

The Hornets proved they can go on the road and win tough games last season, finishing with the fourth most road wins in the NBA. It was defending home-court that was a problem for New Orleans.

They finished with just the seventh best home record in the west last year. If Chris Paul, David West, and Tyson Chandler can figure out a way to make the New Orleans Arena a place visiting teams hate to play at, something similar to what the Kings had in Sacramento a few years back, the Hornets suddenly become a 60-win team without even really having to improve talent wise.

Factor in that we have no idea where Chris Paul's ceiling is at and we could be looking at a very tough team to beat this season.

Projected record: 61-21

16. Los Angeles Lakers

Look, I've spent the better part of the past three seasons writing about how great Kobe Bryant is, and I'm sure there is more to come on that topic later this season. It doesn't need to be said anymore.

In fact, the Lakers are so good and so popular that there isn't much else that can be said about this team. They were a miraculous second half comeback by the Celtics away from a potential stranglehold on the NBA Finals, only to find themselves eliminated in six games via an embarrassing blowout.

While teams like the Rockets made major roster moves to try to keep pace with the Lakers, the Lakers trumped everyone by making the biggest move of all: moving Andrew Bynum from the injured list to the starting lineup.

While teams paid an arm and a leg just to try to get to the level the Lakers were at last year this offseason, the Lakers may have improved more than any team by adding a potential 20 and 10 guy into the mix without spending a dime.

As great as Kobe is, it's the development of Andrew Bynum that will determine whether or not the Lakers can take the final step towards their 15th title as a franchise.

Projected record: 63-19

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:27 AM | Comments (3)

Emerging From the Depths

It was a typical Sunday night in October, and in some ways, it wasn't. Much of the sports nation was tuned in for Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. One team, one fan base, and one city would be represented in the World Series starting later this week. And it was an AL East showdown to boot. The defending champion Boston Red Sox tried to extend their dreams of a repeat in ... St. Petersburg?

The Tampa Bay Rays, no question, have been the perplexing, dazzling, and feel-good story of the baseball season. A squad of youngsters built by strong drafts and great scouting has gone from laughing stocks to potential pennant winners. No one expected this to happen in March, but it's not like the story's an unknown one.

How does the Rays' season stack up to some of the best turnarounds in baseball lore? Here's how I think the top five would filter out.

5) 1991 Minnesota Twins

This team had gone from the penthouse to the basement in just three seasons. The 1987 edition of the Twins had won the World Championship, but by 1990, this team was looking up at the rest of the AL West. Now granted, only Oakland and the White Sox won more than 90 games. However, falling from 91 wins in 1988 to 74 in 1990 is still nothing any team wants to be a part of.

Then came 1991. Minnesota kept on hitting (averaging 4.79 runs/game) and the pitching caught up (a staff ERA of 3.69). Pitchers Scott Erickson (20-8) and Kevin Tapani (16-9) turned in stellar campaign in their second seasons with the club. Wily veteran Jack Morris (18-12) was as cagey as ever during his only year in the Metrodome. And the Twins rode those arms to their second world championship in five seasons.

The big reason why this team isn't higher on the list is because their core hitters (Kirby Puckett, Greg Gagne, Kent Hrbek, and Dan Gladden) were part of the '87 champs.

4) 2003 Florida Marlins

The Marlins have only been around since 1993. Yet, they have more championships than 12 other major league franchises (most whom have been around two to three times as long). And the way they compile their trophies is still baffling. In 1997, the team was assembled with key veterans hungry for a title.

A lineup that included Bobby Bonilla, Devon White, Moises Alou, Jeff Conine, and Gary Sheffield catapulted the organization into success. Then everything dissolved. By the stretch run of the season, the main cogs from the previous season's batting order were gone, leaving the defending champs in instant rebuild mode.

This incident helped players like Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell, and Luis Castillo learn through the fire. However, with the Marlins middling around to an under-.500 record in 2002, no one could really see postseason dreams in the near future.

Then the arms came alive. Thanks to youngsters Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis, the Fish improved their runs allowed almost one-half run (4.71 to 4.27). And in the postseason, Beckett became a stud playoff pitcher, guiding the team to series wins over the heavily favored Chicago Cubs (in the NLCS) and New York Yankees (in the WS).

The most amazing thing about all of this is that owner Wayne Huizenga basically dismantled the team again within a couple of seasons. However, Florida has been knocking at the door of the playoffs again. It might be time to refresh that parade route.

3) 1991 Atlanta Braves

The Twins' counterpart in that 1991 World Series had to come from even more treacherous depths to get their chance at the brass ring. Except for Dale Murphy, the Braves had pretty much been mired in a mediocrity-at-best situation through the 1980s. They did have three seasons at or above .500, but the late half of the decade became abysmal.

Between 1985 and 1990, the franchise never won more than 72 games in a season. The worst of all occurred in 1988, when the team finished 54-106, last in scoring, second-to-last in hitting, and second-to-last in pitching. The next two years didn't bring much hope, with 97 losses by the end of both seasons.

However, things turned around in '91. They improved their middle-of-the-pack batting to second-best (in both runs and batting average) in the league. But it was the pitching that really got a boost. The team went from dead-last in ERA to third-best, improving more than a full run (4.58 to 3.49). By the end of the season, Atlanta had stolen their first of 14 straight division titles from Los Angeles (by one game) and survived the NLCS (beating Pittsburgh 4-3).

The rotation of Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, Charlie Leibrandt, and John Smoltz helped propel the organization to its first World Series since 1958. And it only took a legendary pitching performance from Jack Morris to deny them their first title since 1957.

2) 2008 Tampa Bay Rays

As I write this article, the Rays are celebrating their first-ever pennant and trip to the Fall Classic. Sort of sounds like another historic team (hint, hint). For the first decade of their existence, the Devil Rays (whoops ... do I owe a dollar to their fund, now?) were the barnacles of baseball. While other upstarts in Miami and Phoenix were winning trophies, the Rays waddled through one 90-loss season after another.

There were the good old days of 2004, when the team finally reached their first 70-win campaign. Now that seems like a ghost from the past. With young talent stocking the lineup (Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton) and a crop of well-to-do young arms (Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza), the Rays made an unbelievable push toward respectability.

Actually, heck, they went right past respectable and flat out won their division. That meant taking their team payroll (est. $44 million) and besting those of the Yankees (est. $209 million), Red Sox (est. $133 million), and Toronto Blue Jays (est. $98 million). But I guess the league's second-best ERA of 3.82 can help even the field a little.

However, even with a World Series title, these Rays can't get past the number one stunner...

1) 1969 New York Mets

If you're searching for the ultimate turnaround story, stop right here. Everybody knows the story about the lovable, lossable, miserable Mets. In their first seven years of existence, the team lost 100-plus games five times. Granted, there had been improvement in years five and seven, but who could have seen what year eight would bring?

In the first season of divisional play, runs per game improved (from 2.90 to 3.90), along with the team's batting average (.228 to .242). But the strength of the team was pitching. A 2.99 ERA held up as the second-best in the NL. With a rotation featuring Tom Seaver (25-7) and Jerry Koosman (17-9), as well as relievers the likes of Nolan Ryan and Tug McGraw, this team muscled its way to 100 wins and their first World Series title.

Funny, though, the turn switched back pretty quick. The Mets didn't win 90 games in a season again until 1984.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:21 AM | Comments (1)

Radical Rule Changes For Tennis

As I was reading a newspaper article proposing outrageous rule changes in soccer, I could not help thinking that the same for tennis rules has to be one of the most entertaining topics of conversation in clubhouses, and how often it comes up with the commentators on TV during televised tennis matches. Anyone from John McEnroe and Mary Carillo to the hardly-known radio sports talk show hosts love bringing it up, whether they know tennis inside out or have never watched a full-length tennis match before in their lives (sadly, nowadays, those people consider themselves an expert on tennis, too).

In the new millennium, one of the biggest criticisms of tennis is how powerful the serve has become and how the big serves negate other skills by keeping the rallies to a minimum of one or two shots. What to do about it? The title says "radical," so let's begin with a suggestion: move the service line closer to the net by an inch, or maybe two inches. I do not have any statistics to back it up, but I presume most of the aces are landing on the line or an inch away from the line, unless in the case of a well-placed wide serve, which does not require power. This would force the players to add more spin to the game to bring the ball down quicker, and thus, take off the pace by reducing power. The gap between the power of a first serve and the finesse of a second serve would be reduced, putting more balls into play.

Let's move on to the tiebreaker. I love the tiebreaker. Obviously most fans love it, too, because during matches the excitement and the involvement of the crowd usually reach their peak during a close tiebreaker. But must we have it so soon, at six games all? Was it not fun to watch some of the sets going past six games all to eight-seven or nine games all in the fifth sets of French Open and Wimbledon, including the epic Wimbledon final match between the two best players in the world? I definitely would want to cancel the tiebreaker for all the reasons mentioned above. But how about a compromise? In the men's draw of all of the Slams (hear that USTA?), let the fifth set play out past six games all, yet do play one, when the score is eight games all (hear that, London and Paris?).

You can have your tiebreaker at six games all in the first four sets; otherwise some matches would last too long. Equally, since all other tournaments are limited to best of three sets, install the tiebreaker at eight games all in all sets. Do the same with the women's draws, too. It will reward the players who put the times into getting in shape, and make the return of serve a bit more valuable since the players will have a couple of more chances to break before playing a tiebreaker.

Let's take this radicalism a bit further. Don't make the fans be completely quiet during rallies. They should be quiet when the player serves at the start the point. But once the rally begins, let the fans yell after a good shot, or even allow a quick clap or two during a long rally filled with great shots. Let them "ohh" and "ahh" when Rafael Nadal runs down an incredible shot to lob it back. I know some are thinking, "Well, they already do that." Yes, but not to the extent that they would do it if they knew it was allowed, because they know that once the point is done, the referee will make an announcement telling them, "Now, now children, let's not make excessive noise during the rallies so the precious players can concentrate better, let's keep the noise to a minimum, okay? Hmmm?” Well, okay, they don't use those words of course, but that's what their announcement sounds like to the fan who is appreciating the wonderful rally.

Nobody can convince me that a tennis player needs total silence during a rally while a basketball player can hit a free throw for the win with deafening sound in the last second of a game, or while a pitcher can throw a strike in the ninth inning of a close game with thousands of fans screaming. They do it, because it is accepted that the norm does not involve silence by the fans. If in baseball, the norm was that it was required from the fans to be quiet during a pitch, and that was "how it's always been," I bet pitchers would then complain at the slightest yell or scream during a pitch, like tennis players do if it happens during a rally. Let the fans loose during rallies, everyone will adjust; fans will have more fun, players will learn to live with it.

Allow a group of fans, who are willing to pay a fee, to spend time with the players in the player lounge area prior to a match. It does not have to be up to the moment they walk out to start the match. Require the players to arrive to the match site 30 minutes before the match. For the first 10 minutes, let a small group of fans casually converse with them, under the supervision of officials to make sure that nobody acts out of line. Following this session, the players can still have 20 minutes to do their routine, go to the locker room, etc.

I can already hear people saying that some players have certain routines before a match that require more than 20 minutes. My answer to that is the following: the players, especially the ones who just came off the court on the losing side, would like their routine to involve leaving the grounds and not deal with the press people, while they are fresh off the disappointing loss. But they don't do that, do they? They face the music and answer the questions (some questions being obnoxious at times), because they are required by the ATP or WTA to do so. Same can be established for this proposition, too. I suspect that not all players will hate it, some may enjoy a 10-minute of relaxing talk with a small group of fans, and it will provide, at least to some fans, access to the personal side of players, and provide some increased revenue for the tournaments.

Give each player a "mulligan shot" per set, à la golf. In other words, give them a second chance to win a point. They can basically take back one point that they have played badly, in each set. In terms of when to use it during the match, they would have to work that into their strategies. Imagine a player having to win the match-point twice to win the match. It may allow a player who has not used his mulligan point to go for a spectacular shot for one point, knowing that he or she may get to repeat the point again if he or she misses the shot. At first glance, some may find it ridiculous, just as the challenge rule idea for a call was found by some when it was first installed. Overtime, it may add to the excitement.

All that being said, I recently saw two of the finest matches of the year in the semifinals of the ATP Masters Series tournament in Madrid. The two underdogs defeated the top two players in the world. There were some fine long rallies and plenty of high quality shot-making. So perhaps, tennis is doing just fine in its current state. Nevertheless, I hope the readers still had just as much fun reading this article, as I had writing it. I would love to hear some of their ideas. Remember to stay faithful to the title, be radical! Until next time, enjoy your game, everyone.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:12 AM | Comments (2)

October 16, 2008

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 7

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ Miami (-3)

After a 2-0 start to the season, the Ravens have lost three in a row, the latest a 31-3 shellacking by the Colts in Indianapolis. A fourth consecutive loss could put the Ravens in a hole from which they may never recover. It's a drastic situation in Baltimore, and when drastic situations strike in Baltimore, the only way to combat them is a Ray Lewis-led team meeting.

"I hear the last time Ray Lewis held a team meeting," says Joe Flacco, "there was so much barking and woofing that the Dog Whisperer was called in. Sounds like fun. I hope I'm invited."

Well, good news, Joe. You are invited to the meeting. And, you're the subject of the meeting. In fact, it's a roast.

"Cool. Will Don Rickles be there? I love Don Rickles," adds Flacco.

No, Joe. You don't need to be a comedian to make fun of you. Just the ability to interpret subpar passing statistics and a quick wit. And a foul mouth doesn't hurt. Anyway, when I say "roast," I'm talking about one with fire.

"That's great! I heard Ray and his cronies just love white meat. Hey, why are the guys calling me the 'Wicker Man?'"

The Dolphins were just seconds away from a 3-2 record, but Matt Schaub's 3-yard touchdown run with three seconds to go left Miami with a 29-28 loss and a 2-3 record.

"That was a heartbreaking scene," says Tony Sparano. "We've had a run of bad luck lately. The loss, of course. Before that, the NFL's decision to fine Ronnie Brown and his backup dancers for doing some dance called the 'Cupid Shuffle' after a score. I've got no problem with the NFL's stance on celebrations in the end zone. In my playing days, if a player celebrated a touchdown and you didn't like it, you took care of him later with a crowbar. But I do feel bad for Ricky Williams. He never got a chance to debut his touchdown dance, the 'Addiction Kicker,' also known as the 'Miami 12-Step.'"

The Baltimore defense is usually ready for anything, but will they be ready for the single-wing, known to many as the 'Wildcat' formation, a craze that's sweeping the nation? I doubt it. The Ravens are adept at capturing "cougars," but 40- to 50-year-old skeezers trolling local Baltimore hot spots are much easier to "pickup" than Sparano's wildcats.

The game ends in a tie. Correction. The World Trash Talk Championship between Lewis and Joey Porter ends in a tie. Miami wins the game 16-10.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+9½)

The Steelers return to action from a bye week, having enjoyed a restful break while two of their three competitors in the AFC North lost. Standing in front of the Steelers are the winless Bengals, who will be without quarterback Carson Palmer due to a lingering elbow injury that may require surgery.

"My advice to Carson would be to have surgery and hang up the cleats for the year," says Ben Roethlisberger. "He's got to ask himself if it's worth the risk to play and possibly suffer a career-ending injury. Heck, I ask myself that every time I stand behind my offensive line. Thank God I wear a helmet."

"Anyway, some situations are best avoided. Like eating at a restaurant staffed by Troy Polamalu and T.J. Housmandzedah that doesn't require them to wear hair nets. You just don't do it. Should Mike Tomlin operate a two-point conversion chart without adult supervision? Absolutely not. Should Chad Johnson ever be allowed to name one of his offspring, much less a pet? No way."

Spreaking of Johnson, Ocho Cinco's been very quiet on the field and off, with only one touchdown catch so far this year. Johnson's statement that he would kiss the Dallas star if he scored against Dallas didn't pan out, but he still ended up kissing another inanimate object — head coach Marvin Lewis.

"Marvin, he was a friend of mine," says Johnson. "But nothing more. Jeepers! Did I just quote a song about Marvin Gaye? Don't read anything into that. Anyway, Coach Lewis was just telling me to keep my head up, despite the fact that I'm having a horrible year statistically. So, I guess you could say he was whispering sweet 'nothings' into my ear. I thought it was quite 'bro'-mantic."

With Palmer out, Ryan Fitzpatrick gets his second start, and will face the Pittsburgh defense on two week's rest. Uh oh! I hope Ryan "fits on a stretcher."

Roethlisberger throws for two scores and isn't sacked once. Pittsburgh wins, 26-14.

Dallas @ St. Louis (+12)

Sound the panic alarms in Dallas. No, not because the Cowboys have to keep Terrell Owens and Roy Williams happy. No, not because Adam Jones is wrestling with a four-game suspension, which inevitably means more free time to discover fresh new ways to violate the NFL conduct policy in the glory of his Grand Theft Auto-like lifestyle. And definitely not because a FedEx package from Bogota, Columbia just arrived at Cowboy headquarters addressed to Nate Newton. It's much worse. Tony Romo's got a broken pinkie, and may be out up to four weeks.

"It's not the end of the world," says Wade Phillips. "Do you even use your pinkie to throw? I know I don't use it to coach, nor do I use the right side of my brain, for that matter. Heck, if Tony were a real man, he just have half that thing amputated and be on his way. Anyway, we've got a capable backup in Danny White, who's also one heck of a punter, so he can fill in for Mat McBriar, as well. So we should be fine until Tony returns. What's that? Brad Johnson is our backup? Dad burnit! I'll have to consult with our head coach Jason Garrett on this one."

The Rams stunned the Redskins, 19-17, despite the lack of an offensive touchdown and only 8 first downs, for their first win of the year. St. Louis averages just over 12 points a game, which won't be enough to beat the Cowboys, and won't be enough to silence Rams fans yearning for the days of the explosive "Greatest Show On Turf" offense.

"St. Louis fans are very fickle," says Jim Haslett. "They want wins, those picky bastards. And they are very clever. Hence, the signs we are bound to see in the stands this Sunday, criticizing our stagnant offense: 'Ewe Suck,' 'Still Wool,' 'Sheep In Rams Uniforms.' Impressive stuff, to say the least. If we could incorporate that kind of imagination into our offense, we'd be averaging more points, probably something in the teens."

Could a quarterback fall into a better situation? Sure, Brad Johnson may be 40-years-old, but he's no virgin, and while he may not have the physical tools that the strapping young lad Romo possesses, he's got two things that will serve him well in keeping Owens and Williams happy — a pair of ears. One for each of them to bitch into.

Johnson (or Romo, if the Cowboys decide to go with the "one-finger discount" starter)throws for three scores, one each to Owens and Williams, and one to Marion Barber. Cowboys win, 31-17.

San Francisco @ NY Giants (-12)

What's all the talk been lately? That Eli Manning is the better quarterback than older brother Peyton? Well, isn't it funny that a day after Peyton masterfully carved up the Baltimore defense, Eli played by far his worst game of the season, throwing three interceptions as the previously undefeated Giants lost 35-14 to the Browns.

"Hey, just because Tony Kornheiser says something," says Manning, "doesn't mean it's true, or sensible, or coherent, or thoughtful, or the result of independent thought. Never have I publicly claimed to be better than Peyton. Privately, though, when I stand in my underwear before my full-length mirror, I tell myself that I'm Peyton's equal. In fact, I tell myself that I am Peyton Manning, or, on occasions when I'm feeling particularly frisky, I tell myself that I'm Al Pacino. Al Pacino! Then I put on my leisure suit and strut down the streets of New York while 'Stayin' Alive' by the Bee Gees plays in the background."

J.T. O'Sullivan has no football-playing brother with whom to be compared. He's only got 49er Hall Of Famers Joe Montana and Steve Young to compare himself to. And although doing so usually gets him down, he can always cheer up by measuring himself against the accomplishments of Alex Smith. But O'Sullivan does, in fact, have some relatives with athletic backgrounds with whom he can share his ups and downs.

"Top of the morning to ya,'" says O'Sullivan. "I have an uncle who never quite made it as a a golfer, T.J. O'Mulligan. And a cousin whose soccer career never panned out, R.J. O'Hooligan. Then there's my grandfather, whose quest to become a world record-holding beer drinker was derailed by a bladder control problem, C.J. O'Pistigan."

Prior to the Giants loss to Cleveland, this looked like a "David vs. Goliath" matchup, with the Giants obviously playing the role of the giant Goliath. The Giants are still heavy favorites, and while most of the G-Men don't mind getting stoned occasionally, they won't be caught napping by the 49ers. Not with Tom Coughlin gently berating them. Eli Manning has a bruised chest, which is a much better excuse to miss a practice than "having to take your son to school." But Manning will play. And Plaxico Burress, who earlier in the week misplaced his play book and claimed his dog ate it, hauls in 8 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. New York wins, 32-17.

Tennessee @ Kansas City (+7½)

As the NFL's lone undefeated team, the Titans are sitting pretty, with a two-game lead in the AFC South and a bye week behind them. The 1-4 Chiefs wouldn't seem to present much of a problem, but in Kansas City, where they "play to win the game" every week, you never know. And with a huge Monday night showdown with the Colts looming in Week 8, a letdown from Tennessee would certainly be understandable.

"But not excusable," says Jeff Fisher. "I promise we'll be ready. We've got a quote on our locker room chalkboard to remind us for times like this. It says 'If you lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, you are a piece of trash.' It kind of reminds me of the 'Hang in There' poster with the cute little kitten hanging for dear life from a tree limb. You can find that poster in Vince Young's locker. And speaking of Vince, he's been promoted to our number two quarterback. Lately, Vince has had lots of time to reflect on the past, and he's even put some of his thoughts into song. It's a rap song he performs under his rap moniker of 'Young M.I.A.' The song's called 'Bust a Move.'"

Chiefs veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez wanted to be traded, and to make that happen, Gonzalez had taken an unusual stance for a disgruntled player — he actually went to management and diplomatically discussed his options. In these times of unhappy players whining to the media about their wishes to play elsewhere, it was refreshing to see Gonzalez and K.C. management amicably discuss options. Alas, the Chiefs couldn't make a deal, and Gonzalez is left to rot in Kansas City. But at least he didn't have to pack.

"Oh, I had already packed," says Gonzalez. "I was ready to take the first flight out of the Kansas City International Airport, known by its three-letter airport code as 'MCI,' and hopefully land at my preferred destination of 'ABH.' That would be 'Anywhere But Here.'"

While Young's been sorting through his problems, the Titans have been winning with Kerry Collins at the helm. Collins has brought the forward pass to the offense, something Young had trouble delivering. And we all know what happened back in 2000, when the Titans rode another forward pass, that of Frank Wycheck, all the way to the Super Bowl.

Titans win, 23-6. Unlike two weeks ago, when Larry Johnson rushed for 2 yards, his rushing output (13 yards) is greater than his assault charges.

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)

With a three-way log jam atop the NFC North, this game could well determine who comes out on top of the division, as the Vikes, Bears, and Packers are all stuck in a morass at 3-3.

"There you go again," says Brad Childress. "You just said 'three-way,' 'log jam,' and 'on top' in the same sentence. And I think you may have said 'more ass.' Now, how are we ever going to get past this 'Sex Boat' issue, when, week after week, you keep bringing up the sordid details of the affair? I'm trying to coach a football team here, and deal with the unruly chants from the fans of 'Fire Childress' even though we've won two in a row."

Very well, Coach. Let's talk about the Bears. Hypothetically, let's say the Vikings took some of the Bears out on a boat ride, to show the Bears how the Vikes put the naughty in nautical. If that escapade were filmed for later viewing, what 1980s television show could it be named after?

"I'm afraid to ask."

B.J. and the Bear, of course.

Last week, the Bears took a 20-19 lead over Atlanta with 11 seconds and still lost. How does that happen? Here's how: squib the kickoff, give the Falcons great field position, then allow a 26-yard completion to set up Jason Elam's 48-yard game-winning field goal. How do you explain that, Lovie Smith?

"Rex Grossman is my quarterback," says Smith. "Oh. I'm sorry. I'm using a canned response from last season's cache of canned responses. Let me break out the canned responses for this season. Ah, here we go. 'We wanted to avoid a big return that may have given the Falcons a chance at a field goal.' We certainly took the big return out of the equation. Of course, hind sight is 20/20. Next time, if faced with the same situation, I think we'll play it safe and go for the onside kick. Or, to play it safer, we just won't score the go-ahead touchdown."

With two of the top five rushing defenses in the NFL, offensive ground control will be tough to come by for either team. But heck, who doesn't want to see an aerial showdown pitting the likes of Kyle Orton and Gus Frerotte? Kyle Orton vs. Gus Frerotte? Sounds like an Old West gunfight, just without the guns. Bears win, 19-13.

San Diego @ Buffalo (+1)

When you think of the Chargers, you think of L.T., LaDainian Tomlinson. And, sadly, when you think of Buffalo, you can't help but recall another great running back most known by initials, O.J., the infamous O.J. Simpson. Fortunately, only one will have an impact in Buffalo, unless the Juice can hitch a 3,000-mile ride with 'A.C.' Al Cowlings and recover the loads of worthless O.J. memorabilia stashed in rental storage units or city dumps throughout Buffalo.

"It's a really sad situation," says Norv Turner. "A lot of today's players, L.T. included, grew up idolizing O.J. And it's come to this. A man once known by his two-letter initials will soon be identified by a six-digit number. Hey, what do the 'real killers' and 'valuable' O.J. memorabilia have in common? They don't exist. It's funny that now, more people have O.J.'s fingerprints than his autograph."

Are the 4-1 Bills the real deal? Sunday's game against the visiting Chargers and the following three weeks will certainly give an indication as to Buffalo's ability to win the AFC East. After the Chargers, Buffalo faces all three division opponents in consecutive weeks, two on the road.

"I guess the Juice better get ready for some 'naked guns,'" says Dick Jauron. "Hey, what'd you expect? My name's Dick. So you get 'dick' jokes. Like it or lump it."

This game has a playoff vibe to it. Except that it's October, it's in Buffalo, and LaDainian Tomlinson is actually playing. The Bills contain L.T., but Philip Rivers throws for two scores, and the Chargers win, 24-19.

New Orleans @ Carolina (-4)

While Drew Brees was nearly perfect against the Raiders, going 26-of-30 for 320 yards and 3 touchdown passes in a 34-3 win, Carolina's Jake Delhomme was downright atrocious, tossing 3 interceptions and registering a 38.6 passer rating as the Panthers lost in Tampa, 27-3.

"38.6?" says Delhomme. "Please tell me that's Celsius. Anyway, Ken Lucas had it easy earlier this year. Only one person wanted to punch him, and Lucas didn't know it. Me? Everybody wants to punch me, and I do know it. Sure, I was terrible. But lost in my misery were the accomplishments of Steve Smith. He had 6 catches for 112 yards, but even more impressively, he showed the restraint not to punch me."

Brees is on pace for 5,314 passing yards this year, which would shatter Dan Marino's 1984 record of 5,084. And at 3-3, the Saints are on pace to go 8-8 this year.

"I've heard the 'MVP' chants," says Brees. "And it's flattering. The voters have taken notice. I'm noticing them, noticing me. I'm so dangerous. As for the Panthers, Delhomme and I are both testaments to returning to the game from major surgeries. I had my shoulder worked, and Jake had his elbow rebuilt. I really don't feel like I lost anything. Jake seems to have lost his aim."

A late John Kasay field goal gives the Panthers a 27-24 win.

Detroit @ Houston (-9)

The Lions remain winless after a narrow 12-10 loss at Minnesota, but the city of Detroit can chalk up an important win, nonetheless —Eminem was named best rapper alive by Vibe magazine.

"I don't know the first thing about rap," says Detroit coach Rod Marinelli. "But since when has knowledge on a subject been a prerequisite for speaking on something? Heck, I coach a football team! Anyway, it's very surprising that Vibe named Eminem the best rapper alive. But how can you have a list of the best rappers alive and not include one single member of the 1985 Chicago Bears. Come on! Gary Fencik had mic skills. I mean, just listen: 'It's Gary here, and I'm Mr.Clean. They call me 'hit man,' don't know what they mean.' I defy Tupac Shakur, dead or alive, to duplicate the poetic magic of those lyrics. Anyway, I questions Vibe's judgment on this. They obviously have a pro-Detroit slant. I think Matt Millen came in at No. 15 on the list."

The Lions continued their housecleaning this week, trading Roy Williams and a seventh-round pick in 2009 to the Cowboys for first, third, and sixth-round picks next year. Detroit unloaded Williams while the market was high, and next year's draft picks would seem to indicate that a total overhaul is on the way for the team. That means Marinelli is likely to be gone at year's end, if not before. Unfortunately, his trade value on the market is negligible, although, on the black market, I think the Lions could easily get two cartons of cigarettes and a hubcap for Marinelli.

The Texans overcame two early Matt Schaub interceptions to beat the Dolphins, 29-28, on Shaub's 3-yard run with three seconds left. This was a week after three late turnovers by Sage Rosenfels had cost Houston a win over Indianapolis.

"Dallas isn't the only city in Texas that has a problem with 'T.O.,'" says Gary Kubiak. "Our 'T.O.' just happens to be 'turnovers.' Rosenfels and Schaub need to take care of the ball like the quarterback before them, David Carr. He rarely turned the ball over. His secret? He was so attached to the football that he wouldn't throw it, and ended up being sacked about 600 times."

Houston wins, 27-13.

Indianapolis @ Green Bay (-1)

Peyton Manning finally turned in the type of dominating performance of which we've become accustomed, dissecting the Ravens for 271 yards and 3 touchdown in the Colts' 31-3 win last Sunday. And maybe now we know why. Coach Tony Dungy revealed on Monday that Manning had not one, but two surgeries of his left knee this offseason. And it's taken Manning well into the season to fully recover.

"Hey, even surgeons have to call audibles sometimes," says Manning. "But if they did it as much as me, there's be patients dying right and left. When doctors initially operated on my left leg, they found something quite alarming inside. On my left kneecap, clear as day, were the words 'Your Ad Here.' So, we had to schedule another surgery to place an ad. Now, the knee is at 100%, so, if the Colts experience any failures from here on out, you can't blame me or the knee. You can blame our shaky defense and almost non-existent running game."

Manning will face Aaron Rodgers, the man partly responsible for denying NFL fans what would have been the "Iron Man Showdown," as Brett Favre would be facing Manning were Favre still a Packer. With Rodgers now the Packers quarterback, much of the luster has been taken off this game, although as far as division races go, it's big for both teams.

"Hey, I didn't tell Favre to go anywhere," says Rodgers. "Now, Mike McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson did tell him to go somewhere. Luckily, Brett didn't heed their advice. Otherwise, heartburn would be the least of his worries."

"Anyway, I respect and admire both Favre and Manning. They've both worked long and hard to get where they are today. Maybe someday, if I play my cards right, I'll be able to alienate the Green Bay front office. And someday, maybe I'll be the guy in the commercial restraining The Chicken from attacking some geek who doesn't watch sports on HD television."

I'd keep your day job, Aaron.

Colts win, 30-27.

NY Jets @ Oakland (+3½)

So Eric Mangini gave his newborn son the middle name "Brett" after Jets quarterback Brett Favre. Zack Brett Mangini was born on October 10th, which was Favre's 39th birthday. That's quite an amazing coincidence. Did Mangini, during the conception of his child, have some sort of knowledge that Favre would become a member of the Jets? I think Al Davis would consider that some manner of "tampering."

"I think what's even more amazing," says Mangini, "is that even the under-developed mind of a week-old child still has the ability to change its mind. Especially one named 'Brett.'"

The Jim Cable era began in Oakland with a disheartening 34-3 loss in the Superdome to the Saints. Cable took over soon after Lane Kiffin's firing, and not long after Davis happened to stumble upon a showing of The Cable Guy on TNT. Whether Cable remains as coach of Oakland is anyone's guess.

"There's only one thing that will make Al step down from his duties," says Cable. "And that's a grave. Unfortunately, he's a picture of longevity. He may have three Super Bowl rings, but if you took a cross section of him, you'd see about 125. The man outlives trees, and giant tortoises."

What's the greatest thing about Raider fans? Despite Davis, they still keep coming to the games. There's Darth Vader, the spiked-shoulder pad-skeleton guy, and endless amounts of people in silver and black. And look. There's R&B and hip-hop singer, producer, songwriter, and musician Teddy Riley in a No. 8 Ray Guy jersey.

Jets win, 21-16.

Cleveland @ Washington (-7)

After last Sunday's shocking 19-17 loss to the then-winless Rams, Redskins head coach Jim Zorn had just a few words for his dejected team.

"Don't believe the hype."

Little did Zorn know that he unknowingly quoted the title of a Public Enemy rap sound from 1988, which, in NFL locker rooms, automatically gives a head coach instant street cred.

"Well, I'll be darned," says Zorn. "Does this mean I'll have to start wearing my baseball caps with the price tag still attached? Does that make me gangster? By that rationale, Minnie Pearl was the original gangster, and not Ice T."

"Anyway, we'll use the loss as a learning experience. We can get better, and we'll have to. Hopefully, the signing of Shaun Alexander will help us improve. Shaun's a former MVP, and his presence will bring experience, leadership, and two pom poms to the sideline."

The Browns are back in the picture after a season-saving 35-14 win over the world champion New York Giants. In that game, Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards had breakout games after four disappointing weeks.

"I guess my position as starter has been cemented," says Anderson. "Now, if someone would just add water. I guess Brady (in-waiting) Quinn might as well go hang out in the green room."

The 'Skins had there "come back down to earth" game last week, after maybe getting a little overconfident. Now it's the Browns turn. Clinton Portis rushes for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. Washington wins, 30-20.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10½)

After shutting down the medium-powered Carolina offense in a 27-3 win, the Bucs are now locked in a three-way tie for the NFC South division lead, and technically lead the division with wins over both Atlanta and Carolina. Jeff Garcia was an efficient 15-of-20, passing for 173 yards and 1 touchdown as the Bucs' defense and special teams dictated the outcome.

"Efficiency," says John Gruden. "That's all I ask of my quarterbacks. That, and absolute submission to my way of doing things. Oh yeah, and a working spleen. You don't have to like me, you just have to fear me. And if you like me, something's wrong with you."

"Now, the Super Bowl is in Tampa this year, and with the topsy-turvy state of the NFC this year, we could just as easily as anyone represent the NFC in the big game. You know, I'm sure back in the early days of the Bucs, when they had Peter Pan on their helmets, no one envisioned this team playing a home game in the Super Bowl. Well, it's a possibility. I know I may be getting ahead of myself, because we haven't even clinched the NFC South. But we have already clinched homefield advantage for the Super Bowl."

With Matt Hasselbeck still mending back and knee problems, Charlie Frye will face the swashbuckling Buccaneer defense, helmed by defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, whose pirating ways are limited to watching SpongeBob SquarePants on Nickelodeon, and a daily fifth of rum.

"Matt is rehabilitating nicely," says Mike Holmgren. "I know the injury situation has been tough on him, but his spirits have remained high. He even wears eye black to rehab sessions. I think, however, that Charlie is ready for the Bucs. It's a tough situation to be tossed into. Anytime you face the Buccaneers and the end zone pirate ship staring back at you, it's always a 'stern' test."

Tampa wins, 22-10.

Denver @ New England (-3½)

Ah, fall in New England. Football season is in full swing, the weather is comfortably cool, and the leaves are turning to shades of brown, red, and yellow, while others dazzle in a glorious hue most closely resembling the skin tone of Denver's Mike Shanahan, the NFL's "Agent Orange." And, as those leaves fall, so do the fading memories of New England's undefeated regular-season run, as this year's version of the Pats have dropped two games already.

"Hey, there's no reason to give up on the season just yet," says Randy Moss, an expert in the field of giving up on seasons. "But I'll let you know when that time comes. One way to tell is to look at my hair. My satisfaction is inversely proportionate to the wildness of my afro. I've got a feeling that I'll be looking like Buckwheat very soon."

"Matt Cassell may be the most 'vanilla' quarterback in the NFL. I guess that's why they call hime 'White' Cassell. Well, I wish Harold and Kumar would make another trip to White Cassell and take Matt with them."

"Now, I hear that Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are pretty full of themselves. I hear Cutler says he throws the ball so hard that the rotation affects the tides on the East Coast. He's got a stronger arm than John Elway? Not strong enough to lift two Super Bowl trophies."

"As for Marshall, he claims he's the best. He must have read his biography on 'Wack'-ipedia. He must be Rocky Mountain 'high.' The only thing he's better than me at is getting charged with assault."

Does Bill Belichick have a remedy for the Patriots deficiencies? Some things you just can't cover up with "camera tricks."

Denver wins, 27-23.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)

October 15, 2008

The Tony Franklin Project

Since Steve Spurrier introduced the "Fun-N-Gun" to the SEC, fans all over the conference have been craving for high-scoring, aerial assault offenses. So, when Tony Franklin was introduced as Auburn's new offensive coordinator, Tigers fans dreamed of eating up yardage in big chunks with the most innovative of spread offenses going.

How big were the dreams on the Plains? Auburn fans were spending hundreds of dollars just to purchase a book explaining Franklin's offensive philosophy.

Unfortunately, unlike college textbooks, Auburn fans can't return those books back for cash.

The release of Tony Franklin was the result of an experiment gone horribly wrong. While Auburn's defense rose to the occasion, their offense, to put it lightly, never took wings. The rumbling began after Auburn pulled off a 3-2 win over Mississippi State in what had to be the ugliest game of the decade, and reached its boiling point when Auburn lacked any offensive punch in a 14-13 loss to Vanderbilt.

Or did it? After Franklin was released last week by Tommy Tuberville, in what sounded like a seperation of two very bitter parties, Auburn faced a young, scrappy Arkansas team that was not only better organized, but seemed in every way to want the game more than the Tigers.

The result? Despite numerous blunders by the young piglets, Arkansas pulled off a 25-22 win, igniting flames of hope in the Ozarks and flames of destruction on the Plains.

While Auburn is reeling right now, the question arises not to whether the system worked. After all, Tuberville himself said it was a good system, and they kept the same playbook last Saturday. This is a question of the cohesion of coaches in today's business.

Though college football is supposed to display some of the purest forms of team unity, it is obvious that the coaches who preach unity to their players don't practice it amongst each other. Take Auburn, for example. We have no clue as to who was right or wrong and what the coaches argued about, but there was no question that Franklin and the other coaches didn't agree with each other. And when that happens, it becomes poisonous to a program.

Now, the expectations at Auburn have sunk faster than last week's stock market numbers. A team that was predicted to win the SEC West at Media Days is now hoping they can reach a bowl game. Thoughts of a seventh consecutive win against Alabama are growing extremely faint (though it's wise to always toss stats out before an Iron Bowl).

To add to that, one only needs to look at Clemson, which parted ways with Tommy Bowden this week. Judging from the reactions of the players, there was some dissension between the players with their head coach. But it didn't stop there. The proof is in one Dabo Swinney, who now inherits the interim coaching title, despite the Tigers having two assistants with head coaching experience.

The proof also lies in Rob Spence, the Clemson offensive coordinator who was not retained for the rest of the season.

There's no doubt every assistant coach dreams of reaching the head spot. The problem now rests in that assistant coaches nowadays seem to be so intent on beating everyone else to get a head coaching slot that they lose the focus on the job they currently have. The result? Disappointing seasons, upset fans, and their own free fall down the coaching ladder.

The good coaches are the ones who can manage everyone around them, from the water boys to their top assistants. It's certainly a wake-up call for the fans in Auburn and Clemson, who realize they have a lot of work cut out for their programs.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:23 AM | Comments (0)

America, Baseball Need Philly/Tampa Series

Are you hearing the grumbling already? Remember what we heard with the Pistons/Spurs NBA Finals? Tinseltown and Beantown will not agree with this, but it is true. This is our National Pastime and the game baseball fans love.

Look, I am a baseball fan who happens to cheer for the Cleveland Indians. Notice I said baseball fan, which is exactly what this is about. My favorite movies of all-time are Bull Durham and For Love of the Game. No matter how bad they were, it was baseball at its purest and playing for love and respect of the greatest game on Earth.

My favorite player is Grady Sizemore, a man who plays baseball like they did in the 1930s, '40s, and '50s when baseball was a man's second job. I think players should wear stirrups with their pants up at their knees. I like baseball played outside, not in domes. Yes, I am old school. Years ago when baseball realigned divisions, added the wild card, and went to interleague play, I was one of the people who was opposed to it and thought they were destroying the game. Even though I do like the wild card now, I still don't like interleague.

What I do like is seeing new hungry teams in the World Series. That is why I am praying for a Phillies/Rays series. I don't care about TV ratings, a New York team, or how many people will tune out. I love baseball and what it is about. I care about how hard these two teams would play and how much respect their young players would have for the World Series as they know they may never get there again. I care about passion, accomplishment, and respect for the game I have loved since my father introduced it to me when I was 4-years-old.

I know we have all heard it and will be hearing it again if they get to the World Series, but how bad has Tampa been for their entire existence? Are you telling me with the state of economic times in the United States right now, this wouldn't be good for this country? We all know the story, since their inaugural season, Tampa Bay has finished out of last place only twice: once in 2004, when they finished fourth in their division (the Toronto Blue Jays being last that season), and again in 2008, when they won 97 games, clinched their first division title, and entered the playoffs for the first time in team history. Is this not the story of America, the little nobody who couldn't accomplish anything but embarrassment for almost 10 years and now are 54 outs from playing in the World Series?

With the way last season ended with my heart being ripped from my chest by C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona blowing a 3-1 lead, I really expected Grady and my Tribe to be where Tampa is right now. However, the "Curse of Rocky Colavito" took care of that early for us in Wahoo-nation. As usual, Grady Sizemore played game No. 162 like he did game No. 1: with everything he had, like it was little league opening day. That is why he has earned the respect of his teammates and baseball fans across the country; he plays out of honor and respect for the game. Why not have a World Series that is played the same way?

As I wait one more year for my Indians or "the Cubs of the American League" to try again for that world championship, I want to thank the Phillies and the Rays for providing me some of the best baseball I have seen in a long time — real baseball. No matter where the playoff road ends for these teams, and I hope it is facing each other in the World Series, they have forever etched in my mind what "For Love of the Game" is all about.

Posted by Chad Wilson at 11:16 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 31

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson led 67 laps in Charlotte, earning five valuable bonus points, but the No. 48 Chevrolet's handling faded late in the race. After battling Jeff Burton for the lead after the final restart, Johnson fell to sixth in the closing laps.

"We turned loose there at the end," says Johnson. "And speaking of 'turned loose,' who let Carl Edwards out of the asylum? The man has some anger issues he needs to sort out. Obviously, someone told him to 'get a grip.' Unfortunately, he took it just a bit too literally."

"There's five races to go, so it's getting down to the nitty-gritty. I don't know who's more nervous — me, or Cale Yarborough."

2. Jeff Burton — Burton led 58 laps, including the final 58, to win the Bank of America 500 in Charlotte for his second win of the year and first of the Chase. He jumped two spots in the point standings to second, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 69.

"A win is exactly what we needed," says Burton. "I think we served notice that the Richard Childress Racing garage is well-prepared for an assault on Jimmie Johnson's points lead. And, as the Kevin Harvick Nationwide team proved, the RCR garage is 'head'-locked and loaded for those times when a rival encroaches on our territory. I don't care how many sit-ups Edwards can do, you don't stroll into our garage without a posse of your own. I think Edwards learned his lesson. The next time he feels like writing, it should just be between he and his diary."

3. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished a quiet seventh in Charlotte, battling a loose race car for most of the race. He remained third in the points, 86 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Luckily, I didn't get caught up in the aftermath of another bad Carl Edwards' decision," says Biffle. "Apparently, Carl's not satisfied being the least liked driver in the Roush Fenway garage. He had to go and make himself the least-liked in the Richard Childress garage. However, I do admire Carl's use of a handwritten note to Harvick. He could have gone the impersonal route and sent Harvick an e-mail. He didn't, and the rest is history. I'm not sure where Carl's handwritten note should end up — in the NASCAR museum, or on eBay."

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards suffered a miserable weekend in Charlotte, first scuffling with Kevin Harvick on Thursday, then experiencing electrical difficulties in Saturday's race that left him with a finish of 33rd. After leaving New Hampshire with the points lead, Edwards is now 168 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I guess Kevin Harvick is right," says Edwards. "I am choking. I showed unwise aggression at Talladega and in the Harvick garage. I appears that Kevin and I won't be pen pals any longer."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a pedestrian 13th in the Bank Of America 500, but otherwise found plenty of excitement in Charlotte. Harvick and Carl Edwards scuffled in Harvick's Nationwide garage on Thursday, the result of a broiling feud resulting from the big crash at Talladega caused by Edwards. Harvick had called Edwards a "pansy" for Edwards' Talladega race strategy, while Edwards left a sarcastic note in Harvick's plane.

"What kind of person leaves a note?" says Harvick. "Only a person who's a chicken, I tell ya.' And I've got no problem choking a chicken."

"That's two weeks in a row Edwards has damaged a Childress car. First, at Talladega, his spin wrecked the No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevy. Then, in Charlotte, he dented the No. 33 Nationwide car when I shoved him onto its hood. I should send him a bill."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon nailed the wall twice in the race's first six laps, and fell a lap down after repairs to remedy a tire rub. He steadily worked his way to the front and led laps 204-250, and, after giving up the lead to pit, never could return to the front and finished eighth. He remains eighth in the points, 245 out of first.

"When car meets wall," says Gordon, "there's going to be sparks. The same can be said when large egos, such as those of Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards, collide. Harvick may be the greatest insult comic, feud instigator, and outspoken critic in NASCAR history. But when you haven't won a race all year, you've got to talk big."

"Edwards is a workout machine whose talents know no bounds. Unfortunately, neither does his temper."

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart led 42 laps in the Bank of America 500, and was on pace for at least a top-five result, but was penalized for speeding entering the pits on lap 260. Stewart fell a lap down, but soon rejoined the lead lap and finished 11th. He is seventh in the Cup point standings, 228 out of first.

"I'm shocked by what went down between Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards," says Stewart. "Shocked that there wasn't even a punch thrown. In the Tony Stewart Handbook of Confrontation, rule No. 1 states that 'chokes, shoves, and headlocks are to always follow a punch.' Rule No. 2 states that there is no Tony Stewart Handbook of Confrontation."

8. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer held down the second position as the final caution flew with about 40 laps left in the Bank of America 500. The No. 07 Jack Daniels team opted for four tires, while most of the leaders took two tires or fuel only. The track position angle ultimately proved to be the wise choice, as Bowyer fell to 12th in the closing laps. He's now fifth in the points, 185 out of first.

"There was a lot accomplished by Richard Childress Racing this weekend" says Bowyer. "Jeff Burton made Jimmie Johnson a little nervous, Kevin Harvick made Carl Edwards a 'hood ornament,' and we made the wrong pit decision."

9. Kyle Busch — After a disastrous start to the Chase, Busch finally recorded a top-five finish with a fourth at Charlotte. He is now 326 out of the lead in the points, well out of contention, but still fully capable of an impact on who eventually becomes Cup champion.

"I'm winless in the Chase," says Busch. "So clearly, the No. 18 car doesn't strike fear into competitors. Especially in its hot pink incarnation."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt blew a right-side tire on lap 103, one lap before a scheduled pit stop, and slammed the wall hard. He took his severely damaged No. 88 Amp Chevrolet to the garage, and returned to finish 36th, 45 laps down.

"What's with all the pushing, shoving, headlocks, and choking?" says Earnhardt. "I'm not even talking about Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards; I'm talking about Earnhardt Nation taking out their frustrations on innocent bystanders after my crash. But while we're on the subject of the Harvick/Edwards incident, I ask everyone, what's the big deal? I've seen better fights in the ladies restroom at Whisky River."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:00 AM | Comments (0)

October 14, 2008

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* This was a historic week for wild finishes: the Falcons, Rams, Texans, and Vikings all won in the last 10 seconds, and Dallas made a last-second field goal to get to overtime.

* The Panthers have had as many punts blocked this year (3) as the rest of the league combined. They might want to work on that.

* I was impressed with Indianapolis fans on Sunday. Peyton Manning motioned the crowd to be quiet on offense, and the stadium went silent.

* There's a recent trend of players slamming the ball forward (instead of spiking it down) on TD celebrations. Sooner or later, someone is accidentally going to throw it too high and nail somebody in the stands.

* I criticize ESPN all the time, but on Monday night, I liked the way they showed the timing of the illegal contact on Eli Manning's fumble at the end of the first half. It was the right call, and ESPN showed its viewers why.

***

Even at the professional level, teams respond very differently to adversity. Some teams elevate their play, stepping things up to get through hard times, or maybe even just to prove that they're bigger than the problem. We saw an example of that last week, when the Giants played their best game of the season without Plaxico Burress. Other teams go in the tank. They get discouraged and lose their mojo, or sometimes give up altogether. I don't know what the Cowboys are going to do without Tony Romo and Felix Jones, both of whom will probably miss about three games with injuries. But so far this season, the Cowboys don't seem like an "elevate their play" kind of team.

This year's best example of a team that has fallen apart in the face of adversity is the New England Patriots. They're 3-2, so it's not like they've suddenly the Lions, but this is a very, very different team than we saw last season. A big part of that is just the difference between Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. It is obvious that the coaching staff has no faith in Cassel. They won't let him throw deep, and he looks really uncomfortable out there. On Sunday night against San Diego, Cassel kept trying to run, but this guy is not Michael Vick — it was a panic thing.

As unimpressive as Cassel has been, the problem is bigger than just the difference between him and Brady. The offensive line, so impressive last year, has been overwhelmed. Center Dan Koppen and guard Logan Mankins, both Pro Bowlers a year ago, are not playing well. The defense looks very ordinary. They're near the bottom of the league in both sacks and opponents' passer rating. And you know the Patriots are in trouble when they get blown out by the Chargers, a team whom they've owned for the past few seasons.

Are there injuries we don't know about? Did some players get old overnight? Did Brady secretly suit up on defense last year? Or has this team just lost its mojo and given up when presented with a real problem?

As we move on to the power rankings, please be patient with me this week. Sunday was a power rankings nightmare. Not including byes, all of the 1st-8th teams lost, and all of the 9th-15th teams won. Part of that is my fault: certain teams were too high (Chicago and Denver) or too low (Buffalo and Arizona). Part of it was just a crazy week with a lot of upsets, probably including some flukes. But the result is that I now think all 15 of those teams are exactly as good as each other, and it may take a week or two to get all of them sorted out. If you think someone is too high or too low, I probably agree with you. But we don't roll with ties here, so some teams are getting a leap of faith or the benefit of the doubt. Anyway, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Tennessee Titans [3] — Number one by attrition. This week, turnovers sunk a number of contending teams: the Giants (-3), Washington (-2), Carolina (-3), Denver (-2). The Titans are a league-best +6 in turnovers.

2. New York Giants [1] — Maybe now we can get a week or two off from the bizarre hype that Eli Manning is the best quarterback in football. Eli is 14th in passing yards, t-11th in TDs, t-12th in TD/INT differential, and 13th in passer rating. He's an average QB! Tony Kornheiser on Monday night: "Nobody says Rivers and Roethlisberger are better than Eli any more." Let me officially correct that for you, Tony. Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are better than Eli Manning.

Really, though, Tony's missing the point — to get Manning, the Giants traded away not only Rivers, but also the draft picks that became Pro Bowlers Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding. A football fan would know this.

3. Washington Redskins [2] — The defense did its job, holding St. Louis to 200 yards, 8 first downs, and 3.7 yards per play. Those are terrific numbers. Washington lost because of its offense (3 fumbles lost) and special teams (2 big returns allowed). I'm going to let Clinton Portis finish this one: "We overlooked a team that came here ready to play."

4. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — The defense is very good, but I really worry about their offense. Pittsburgh's offense is ranked 26th, behind teams like Baltimore and Oakland, whose offenses are punchlines. There are two basic problems: way too many sacks (3.8 per game, 4th-worst in NFL), and a substandard rushing attack (20th in yards, 22nd in average). Injuries are an issue.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [9] — Won four of their last five, with the loss by a field goal at Denver. They have a tough strength of schedule, too: Tampa hasn't played anyone with a losing record. Jeff Garcia (85.8 passer rating) should keep the starting job over Brian Griese (64.6) unless he gets hurt.

6. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — The Titans and Giants have the two best point differentials in the league. Third place is a tie between the Eagles and Buccaneers (+44). It's true that the Eagles padded that number against a couple of pretty bad teams (+49 vs. the Rams and 49ers), but they're also about even (-5) against a murderer's row of Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago. The Eagles are about as good as the top-10 teams they've faced, and they're way better than the bad teams they've played against.

7. San Diego Chargers [11] — Three wins in their last four games, all by double-digits. Sunday night was probably the best game of Philip Rivers' career, and he was classy in postgame interviews, deflecting praise to his receivers and linemen without trash-talking the Patriots. It was a welcome change for a player who has been hot-headed and immature in the past. If Rivers can keep this up — both his passing and his temperament — the Chargers will be a serious threat in the AFC.

8. Arizona Cardinals [17] — Here is a brief list of things that make people losers: canceling dates to play Warcraft; drinking cough syrup if you don't have a cold; prevent defense; photoshopping your head onto a picture of Flavor Flav; trying to ice opposing kickers. Ken Whisenhunt nearly cost his team a big win with one of those pathetic last-second timeouts before a field goal. At best, icing the kicker is usually a waste of time. At worst, it turns wins into losses.

9. Buffalo Bills [13] — They've played three terrible teams and two good ones (Jacksonville and Arizona). They beat Jacksonville and lost to Arizona. So here they are between Jacksonville and Arizona. What could be more fair?

10. Jacksonville Jaguars [14] — Week 6 was great for the AFC South. Houston got its first win of the season, while the Colts and Jaguars both played — for the first time this season — like they did last year. The Jaguars need David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew to be elite players, and this weekend against Denver, they were.

11. Chicago Bears [6] — Here is another list of things that make people losers: jersey-popping; getting your own name tattooed on yourself; being Joe Buck; cheering injuries; squib kicks. The Bears cost themselves a game by doing one of these things, and it wasn't the tattoo one. Jerious Norwood is averaging 29 yards on kick returns, and that 85-yarder on Sunday was the longest of his career. The chances that he would run it out past the 44, where Atlanta got the ball after Chicago's squib, were pretty small. Squib kicks nearly always result in good field position for the receiving team; they're a losing strategy. And when you play like losers, you usually lose.

12. Carolina Panthers [4] — At home, they're 3-0 and have outscored opponents 78-26. On the road, they're 1-2 and have been outscored 71-39. That's a point differential of +52 at home and -32 on the road. Three of their next four games are at home.

13. Denver Broncos [8] — Lost to Jacksonville because of turnovers and their terrible defense, but their avoidance of sacks on offense is becoming really amazing. Jay Cutler has only been sacked twice all season, despite leading the AFC in pass attempts. That's incredible.

14. Dallas Cowboys [5] — They're 4-0 when Marion Barber has at least 50 rushing yards, and 0-2 when he doesn't. However, Barber is fumbling way too often. He has four already this year, which puts him on pace for 10 or 11. One or two fumbles in a season is pretty good for a featured back. Three or four is okay. Five or six is pretty bad, and more than that is terrible. Eleven will probably cost you a starting job.

15. New Orleans Saints [15] — The schedule is not their friend: at Carolina, vs. San Diego in London, bye, at Atlanta. Will the Saints be favored in any of those? I do think Sean Payton will have his team better-prepared for the London game than the up-and-down Chargers will be.

16. Minnesota Vikings [12] — Six of their first seven drives against Detroit ended in punts. The other one was a lost fumble. The Lions' defense is ranked last in the NFL, and Minnesota couldn't do anything against it. Kevin Williams is not going to have four sacks every week, so the Vikings need to get a lot more out of their offense.

17. Indianapolis Colts [19] — Finally looked like the Colts we've gotten used to seeing in the last five years. Peyton Manning, at the top of his game, is awesome to watch, and Dominic Rhodes was sensational on that highlight-reel run when he broke four or five tackles. The defense also played really well, swarming to the ball. Even Tony Dungy said that the Colts played faster this week.

18. Atlanta Falcons [23] — They're beating bad teams and they're 2-2 against real teams. I'm pretty sure that merits a top-half ranking, but there's no one to move down. This may seem impossible, but there are 18 teams that should be top-16 this week.

19. Baltimore Ravens [16] — On one of the most exciting weekends in regular-season history, CBS stuck with Colts/Ravens until the bitter end. Why not take audiences to Miami/Houston instead of showing the last few minutes of a 31-3 blowout?

20. Cleveland Browns [24] — Finally got the big games they needed out of Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards, but there are plenty of problems to fix, starting with pre-snap penalties and run defense.

21. Green Bay Packers [20] — No running game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads the team in rushing TDs (3). Backup RB Brandon Jackson is next (1). No one else — including starting RB Ryan Grant — has any. If Green Bay can improve its ground attack and run defense, the Packers could win their division.

22. New York Jets [21] — I realize I should write about their win over Cincinnati, but this is important: the Jets have got to stop wearing those New York Titans throwback jerseys. They are the most hideous uniforms I have ever seen on any team in any sport at any level.

23. New England Patriots [18] — Where was the intensity against San Diego? I thought these teams didn't like each other. The only one who showed that was the always-classy Bill Belichick. Why was he calling timeout at the end of the game on Sunday night? Does he have a 20-point play? Or is he just a really, really sore loser?

24. Houston Texans [27] — To understand how good Mario Williams has become, you need to understand how little help he gets from his teammates. So far this season, Williams has six sacks. The rest of his team combined has one. Opponents can really concentrate on trying to stop Williams, but they can't seem to do it.

25. Miami Dolphins [22] — I don't understand why more teams aren't using the Wildcat formation or some variation on it. I was just sure that the Rams or Raiders were going to come out of their bye and use the Wildcat to try and pull an upset. The Raiders even have a player, Darren McFadden, who has experience with the Wild Hog formation that inspired Miami. Memo to Coach Cable: it can't hurt to try at this point.

26. San Francisco 49ers [25] — Outscored 23-0 in the fourth quarter, but you should blame the offense, not the defense. The Eagles had a nice touchdown drive at the beginning of the quarter, but after that they were held to 40 yards and one first down. Philadelphia scored a TD on an interception return and kicked three field goals in that fourth quarter, because they kept getting good field position after interceptions and three-and-outs. J.T. O'Sullivan got off to a nice start this year, but he's had three bad games in a row, with an average passer rating of 54.1.

27. Seattle Seahawks [26] — Charlie Frye had a 53.4 passer rating this weekend. As bad as that seems, it's about the same as Matt Hasselbeck's 57.7 this year. Frye's stats tell you more about Seattle's offense than they do about Frye.

28. St. Louis Rams [31] — I began this column musing about adversity. The word out of St. Louis is that under Scott Linehan, the Rams collapsed when presented with adversity. At the beginning of Sunday's game, Steven Jackson fumbled, leading to an easy touchdown for Washington. Instead of giving up, the Rams persevered, and stole a win from a team that underestimated them. Jim Haslett deserves some credit.

29. Oakland Raiders [28] — JaMarcus Russell has completed 67-of-134 passes, 50%. The last quarterback to start at least 10 games who had a completion percentage of 50% or less was Akili Smith in 2000. The last sub-50% QB to start all 16 games was Marc Wilson in 1985.

30. Cincinnati Bengals [29] — With Carson Palmer, the Bengals are a decent team that's winless against a tough schedule. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, they might or might not be better than the Chiefs.

31. Kansas City Chiefs [30] — When your team is struggling, it's always a good idea to trade your best player.

32. Detroit Lions [32] — The 42-yard interference penalty against Leigh Bodden that set up Minnesota's winning field goal seemed pretty bogus, but I don't think the Lions really did anything Sunday to dissuade me from believing that they're the worst team in the league.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:38 AM | Comments (2)

October 13, 2008

Week 6: Fantastic Finishes and the Wildcat

A few years ago, on the NCAA football franchise of video games, I decided to experiment with the offense a bit. My passing game was devoid of a star quarterback or star receivers, so I decided to go with a vast majority of running plays, but with putting a running back, wide receiver, or even a corner in at quarterback.

The results were pretty successful, as video games (and especially college video game defenses) don't really adjust themselves to load up on the run with three or four receivers in the shotgun.

I'm not going to take credit for some sort of pre-Wildcat formation, because, as I was "creating" this video game offense, as then-Springdale (Ark.) head coach Gus Malzahn was employing the real thing.

When Malzahn went to Arkansas as offensive coordinator, along with his two best players (not shady at all), Darren McFadden and Felix Jones became the poster children for the formation that, even in a college football world with 55 passes for one quarterback in a game, spread-option plays and zone reads galore, stood out as unique.

If you've been watching NFL storylines for the past few weeks, you know what happens next. Malzahn and the two best players leave after a year, the formation stays at Arkansas, and then goes to the Dolphins with quarterbacks coach David Lee (Malzahn's successor).

Yet, the Dolphins' lost yesterday with just seconds to go after Matt Schaub ran in on 4th-and-2 for the Texans. The Wildcat produced a couple of memorable plays, including a Chad Pennington 53-yard touchdown strike to Patrick Cobbs where Pennington was lined up wide and ended up with the ball behind the line of scrimmage courtesy of Ricky Williams via Ronnie Brown.

That was not my favorite play of the day from the formation, though.

In Atlanta and Chicago's are-you-kidding-me game, Jerious Norwood took a direct snap from the Wildcat on the Falcons' first play from scrimmage in the second half and went 21 yards. The run probably isn't going to be on the highlight shows today and tomorrow, what with Matt Ryan's awesome performance and continued superb play as a rookie starter, Jason Elam's goat-to-hero turnaround and the Bears' stealing the game at the end only to have the rug taken right out from under them.

However, Norwood's run was a needed temporary spark to the usually superlative Atlanta running game that had just 75 yards on 30 carries Sunday.

And those two aforementioned games were just a couple of the four in the early window of games that had last-second finishes.

A fifth, the Cardinals' upset of the Cowboys three hours later, was just a downright ugly display by Dallas. Yes, they showed resolve by coming back from down 10 points with three minutes left, but were out of sync on both sides of the ball for what seemed to be most of the other 57 minutes.

Three weeks ago, the consensus was that the Cowboys were Super Bowl favorites after bulldozing the Packers at Lambeau. Now, with the story of Tony Romo being out for four weeks, which time includes a trip to Giants Stadium, and playing in the NFC East gauntlet, Dallas might well miss the playoffs, something that would undoubtedly see offensive coordinator Jason Garrett become head coach.

After Week 1, I wrote how no one really had any clue what to expect from this season after seeing vulnerability from so many of the good teams from recent years. I wasn't sure how I felt about that at the time.

Five weeks on, we still don't know much. But not knowing anything has turned what could have been a season with parity at all-time disappointing level into a fun league to watch with a bunch of very solid clubs.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 12:58 PM | Comments (0)

82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season (Pt. 3)

Also see: Pt. 1 | Pt. 2

In part one of my five-week NBA season preview, I looked at what we can expect from some of the biggest stars in the league for the upcoming NBA season. In part two, I examined some of the players you can expect to see have breakout seasons.

But no NBA preview would be complete without a comprehensive, and sure to be wrong, set of predictions for the postseason awards. As we continue our countdown of the 82 to watch for this NBA season, we take a look at the preseason favorites to win some of the NBA's most prestigious awards.

55. G Kobe Bryant
54. G Chris Paul
53. F LeBron James
52. F Paul Pierce
51. C Dwight Howard

First Team All-NBA

How important is it to have a First Team All-NBA player on your roster? Over the past 18 seasons, only the Houston Rockets in 1995 won the NBA title without having a First or Second Team All-NBA player on its roster (Hakeem Olajuwon was Third Team All-NBA that season).

Often times, you will see a coach without a star player try to sell to the media that "team ball" is the best way to win a championship. To some degree, it is true. After all, not having a star player leaves that team with no choice but to play well as a unit if they want to have any success.

But while "team ball" is a great concept, history has shown us that it is a lot easier to close out a playoff series when you can ride an All-NBA superstar.

Probably not so coincidentally, each of the five teams represented above (Lakers, Hornets, Cavs, Celtics, and Magic) had good success last season. If these five players can play at their highest level again this season, you can expect to see each of their teams competing for an NBA title once again.

50. G Deron Williams
49. G Dwyane Wade
48. F Kevin Garnett
47. F Tim Duncan
46. C Amare Stoudemire

Second Team All-NBA

While being Second Team All-NBA is nothing to sneeze at, it isn't much of a guarantee that it will help you win the Larry O'Brien trophy, either. While 16 of the past 18 NBA champs have had a First Team All-NBA player on its roster, only six had All-NBA second team players (mainly because their best players were busy occupying spots on first team, but still).

Nonetheless, of the 45 players that have been named to the All-NBA second team this decade, only two of them have played for teams that have failed to reach the postseason.

"Team ball" takes another blow here as it once again proves that having a superstar makes all the difference in the world when trying to close out big games. Four of the five teams listed here (Jazz, Celtics, Spurs, Suns) have a very good odds of making the playoffs again this season.

The fifth team, the Miami Heat, is surrounded by the biggest question mark of any team heading into the regular season. They could just as easily win 25 games as they could 55, but the smart money says that if D-Wade ends up on this list, the total will be much closer to the latter.

45. G. Derrick Rose
44. G. Russell Westbrook
43. F. Kevin Love
42. F. Michael Beasley
41. C Greg Oden

All-Rookie Team

While making an All-NBA team all but assures that your team will make the playoffs, being selected to the all-rookie team means almost the opposite. In fact, since 2000, there have been almost as many All-Rookie players to play on last place teams (15) than there have been playoff teams (17).

The good news for the Bulls, Thunder, Timberwolves, Heat, and Blazers is that in that same span at least one player from every All-Rookie team has played for a playoff team. If these five players can live up to the expectations, expect one of these teams to jump back into the forefront of their conference playoff race.

40. G. Kobe Bryant
39. G. Chris Paul
38. F. Kevin Garnett
37. F. Tim Duncan
36. C. Dwight Howard

All-Defensive Team

There may be a lot of clichés thrown around in sports, but there's one that will never die: defense wins championships.

You can get tired of hearing it all you want, but the phrase has been uttered as long as people have debated sports, and will continue to be uttered as long as there are sporting contests to debate.

But there's no debating this: only those same 1995 Rockets have won the NBA title without having a player on the All-Defensive team in the past 18 seasons.

The '95 Rockets were either severely underestimated, lucky as hell, or both, but they prove my point. You'd better have an all-word defender in your lineup if you want to compete for an NBA title.

35. Nate McMillan, Portland Trail Blazers, Coach of the Year

There are three factors that Coach of the Year voters seem to favor over anything else when it comes to selecting a winner:

1. Coaching a team that wins more games than anyone predicted them to win the preseason.
2. Coaching a young team to the playoffs.
3. Coaching a team that drastically increases its win total from the previous season.

In my opinion, the Blazers seem poised to accomplish all three of those things this season. McMillan has the challenge of successfully inserting a potentially game-changing big man in Greg Oden into the lineup of a team that won 41 games last season. He needs to figure out a way to get this offense flowing, and figure out a way fast. The Blazers first five games are against the Lakers, Spurs, Suns, Jazz, and Rockets.

If Portland can weather the early scheduling storm and stay confident and healthy, McMillan has the coaching and leadership ability to lead this team to a 50-win season and their first trip to the playoffs since 2003.

34. Bryan Colangelo, Toronto Raptors, Executive of the Year

You know how the Spurs can only win titles in odd numbered years? That's how Bryan Colangelo is with the Executive of the Year award.

He won the award in 2005 for his work with the Phoenix Suns, mainly for bringing in Steve Nash, then again in 2007 with the Raptors, his first full season with the team.

When Colangelo took over half way through the 2005-06 season, he inherited a 27-win team with more holes in its lineup than legit NBA players. About a year and a half later, only two players, Jose Calderon and Chris Bosh, remain from that team.

With the finalization of the team's overhaul coming this offseason when the Raptors traded for Jermaine O'Neal, Colangelo has now put the Raptors in position to have their first 50-win season in franchise history.

33. Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers, Sixth Man of the Year

No one knows for sure if Uncle Phil is even going to bring Odom off the bench this season, but my guess is that it's not going to take many games before Andrew Bynum forces his way into the starting lineup. Once that happens, the move that makes the most sense for the Lakers would be to start Bynum and Pau Gasol together and bring Lamar Odom off the bench.

That lineup allows the Lakers to come out and set the tone defensively with Andrew Bynum to start the game and switch to Lamar Odom for some instant offense off the bench.

Odom has shown that he doesn't necessarily thrive when he is asked upon to be the number two scoring option, but he certainly has the offensive ability to take over the game for short stretches at a time. If he can carry the scoring load to start the second and fourth quarters while Kobe takes his usual breather, he could help fast-track the Lakers to a lot of victories this year, as well as take home the award for Sixth Man of the Year.

32. Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic, Defensive Player of the Year

Superman stole the show last year at all-star weekend in New Orleans. If you didn't realize before that weekend how much of a superstar Howard is, you certainly did after. This is the year Howard could take the first step towards carving his name alongside some of the all-time great NBA centers.

After a pretty underwhelming (it's a word, I looked it up) Olympic Tournament, where Howard was basically a victim of the trapezoid lane, he now returns to his comfort zone at Amway Arena where he's free to roam the paint and create havoc in the lane for opposing players all season long.

There seems to be no ceiling for Howard, who has upped his scoring and rebounding numbers from one year to the next in each of his four NBA seasons. I fully expect Howard to continue his progression defensively as well and improve on his already impressive two blocks per game from a year ago, all while continuing to be one of the league's top defensive rebounders.

Though Kevin Garnett was a worthy recipient of the award a season ago, the novelty of the Celtics turnaround has worn off and they are now expected to be great. If Garnett's numbers slip even slightly, the voters will likely look elsewhere to crown someone the title of best defensive player of the year.

Superman is ready to hold that title.

31. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, MVP

It's LeBron's time.

Though the voting may have been close last season, Kobe Bryant spent most of the year as the frontrunner for league MVP. Despite great seasons by both Chris Paul and LeBron James, neither could wrestle the award away from Bryant.

It was like the voters had decided early on that Kobe deserved to be a league MVP, and Bryant reaffirmed their beliefs with a tremendous season.

LeBron now finds himself in a similar situation. The public has been waiting patiently, quietly hoping that LeBron can do something special. Can he average a triple-double? Can he match Michael Jordan's 36-8-8 season?

Since he played his first game back in 2003, everyone has been wondering how good LeBron James will end up being. Now at 23 (he'll turn 24 in December), with five seasons under his belt, a trip to the NBA Finals, and Olympic gold already to his credit, LeBron may finally be entering his prime.

Think about that for a second. This is a player who has gotten 27-7-7 over his career and he may not have had his best season yet. For those of us who thought that when LeBron entered the league he was going to be a once in a lifetime player (I say "us" because I know I'm not the only one), it may finally be time to answer our question: how good can LeBron be?

If he can elevate his game to all-time status, a big but not unreasonable "if," the league and its MVP voters will be happy to present King James his first MVP trophy. It's only a matter of time before LeBron plays a season that will be remembered as one of the all-time greats, and I say there's no time like the present.

It's LeBron's time.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:57 AM | Comments (3)

MLB is No Longer Recession-Proof

What MLB did not foresee, much like its compatriots on Wall Street who bought up valueless mortgages and pimped them off as viable commodities, was that such actions would have such a deleterious impact on their baseball revenues next season.

But wait! Before you roll your eyes and click on another page, since you no longer want to hear any more about the economy and the $850 billion government bailout and how the American people just got played, it behooves you to know some basic facts relative to sports fans and more specifically as fans of Major League Baseball.

It includes knowing how the fat cats who own baseball teams are one in the same types as those who prevail over Wall Street. It does not take an economist to know that everyone has taken tremendous hits for months now whether it has been to fill up at the pump, paying energy bills, or affording groceries, where there is no end in sight to rising prices. The average taxpayers know that their pocketbooks are much lighter these days and are angry. They want answers!

But Wall Street and MLB have become nearly indistinguishable these days. When Wall Street tanks, it not only has profound global ramifications, but impacts the local economies ever more so, and as such, the financing of MLB teams is entrenched in corporate sponsorships. MLB has long enjoyed its own type of bailouts with public financing of its stadiums, but with corporate sponsorships now in jeopardy, maybe its billionaire owners will finally get a taste of their own medicine.

"If you build it, they will come" no longer applies in the economic landscape of 2008. And unlike prior recessions at the beginning of this decade, followed by a dip in the economy post-9/11, the turmoil in which Wall Street now finds itself cannot simply be explained away or spun by economic prognosticators.

And for fans who simply want to tune into a baseball game to put their worries on hold for a couple of hours, you cannot even get away from it. There was no greater reminder to fans of the bankrupt economy than during the first inning of Game 3 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS) on Sunday night at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers second baseman Blake DeWitt hit a 3-run triple into right field, where cameras zoomed in on the AIG sign on the wall in right field.

For those of you not yet caught up, American International Group (AIG) was bailed out by the U.S. Treasury a couple of weeks back to the tune of $85 billion and an additional $38 billion this past week was also added to its piggy bank. The U.S. government now owns 80% of AIG and is its majority shareholder. And one would guess by extension that the U.S. taxpayers are now paying for AIG sponsorships throughout the sports world and in this case as subsidizers of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And the Philadelphia Phillies, opposing the Dodgers in the NLCS, got some bad news last week, too. Citizens Bank, which has the naming rights for Citizens Bank Park, the stadium in which the Phillies play, is owned by the Royal Bank of Scotland, but another bank on shaky ground and whose assets are in free-fall.

Think baseball is not a part of this whole mess? The owners of MLB teams within the past decade have retrofitted their revenue streams to the point that it now dictates who can actually get in to see a baseball game. MLB has gone the way of the elite sports and caters to the elite. Working class people need not apply. Greed in the government, greed on Wall Street, greed in the sports industry, and greed in MLB may destroy the whole house of cards.

And in that regard, it may be a good thing for the middle class eventually. For when the elite stop paying for MLB, it might someday be rightfully returned to the fans. Unfortunately, not before the bill comes due for those two new behemoth stadiums in New York City, set to open in April 2009. And with potentially 64,000 jobs that will be cut in NYC's financial sector by 2010, the well heeled, expected to attend games, will be on the unemployment line instead.

But while MLB Commissioner Bud Selig is trying to put on a happy face, sponsors and owners are more realistically waiting for the next shoe to drop, while no one from Wall Street to Capitol Hill has a clue.

What we do know is that since sponsorships, naming rights, and broadcast rights are usually multi-year contracts, right now the primary savior for MLB will be its broadcast partners. But many financial service groups have either filed for bankruptcy or are close to it and waiting for their portion of the bailout money to kick in. In this recession, all bets are off.

So what does this mean for the average baseball fan? Well, in some markets, the news is good, where teams are more dependent upon the fan base. But in the market of New York City, the average fan has already been displaced due to the 47 luxury suites in the new Yankee Stadium and the 49 luxury suites in Citi Field, the Mets' new home. The Mets will have 10,000 less seats available to the public than Shea Stadium had. And the Yankees will have 5,000 less available public seats, with the average ticket costing $75.00; that's before the $30.00 parking fee or food and concession costs.

The luxury suites at Citi Field are as high as $500,000 for the season, while the Yankees' suites run between $600,000-$800,000 for the season. And one of those suites will go for free for the Mayor of New York City, to boot.

But purchases of these luxury suites not only cost a fortune, but are contingent upon multi-year commitments. And that could spell trouble for corporations cutting back on expenditures, personnel, or even going bust. For as much as the big-wigs in the sports industry would like you to believe that their industry will flourish in the down times, that was in the days when games were more affordable and when people could at least rely upon experts in the economy to be truthful about their life savings.

Since the finance industry outspends all others when it comes to sponsorships and naming rights for teams, it is perhaps a good thing that the Yankees and the Mets got theirs locked in before the biggest collapse on Wall Street in 70 years. Bank of America not only gobbled up Merrill Lynch in the past couple of weeks, but committed to a $20 million a year deal sponsorship with the Yankees. And CitiGroup's naming rights will adorn the Mets' new house.

But other teams are holding the line with their fans such as the Seattle Mariners. They will not be raising ticket prices in 2009, more so because of the economy rather than finishing with the second worst record in MLB for 2008 by losing 101 games.

Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan bank in the United States, was bought by the government's FDIC for a short time two weeks ago, and then was sold by the U.S. government to JP Morgan Chase & Co. It was the largest bank failure in U.S. history. Yet Chase had just purchased Bear Sterns weeks before the Washington Mutual deal, which raised even more eyebrows on Wall Street.

Unfortunately, Washington Mutual is also one of the Mariners' biggest sponsors. In addition, the economy in Seattle is struggling with a month-long strike by Boeing workers. That has impacted its suppliers and other corporations with which it does business in the region.

So, follow the money. Where Wall Street goes, so goes MLB. As these new team stadiums and other teams scramble for revenue streams, more and more teams will be competing for the same dollars in this new small world, especially in light of the middle class having been written off.

And with luxury boxes and field seats commanding thousands of dollars per game, at least in NYC, such expenditures will have to be justified to corporate shareholders and spending will be more scrutinized in the year ahead. Down payments for season ticket holders as well as corporate commitments are due in the next few weeks for the Mets and the Yankees, and will lock in corporations to their multi-year agreements.

In fairness, there has been less disconnect from some quarters of MLB. MLB's Senior Vice President of Corporate Sales and Marketing, John Brody, in an interview in late September with the Sports Business Journal, stated that, "Anyone who says this isn't a different time is either not in touch or not telling the truth. This is a different time and people are evaluating how they're going to spend their dollars, not just for next year, but for next month."

To put sponsorship spending in scope, one only needs to know that General Motors announced it would not purchase any advertising time during the next Super Bowl in February 2009. If that is not an ominous sign, it would be hard to say what is.

And finally, the disconnect between the federal government and the American people and the disconnect between Wall Street and in its ignoring the rules are now joined by the disconnect between MLB and its fan base. But with the symbiotic relationship between Wall Street and MLB as monies dry up, both NYC teams may have overestimated the revenue they expected would never quit.

Maybe the Tampa Bay Rays will be the ultimate winners both on the field and otherwise when this whole thing shakes out. As they strive to reach the World Series and maybe eventually win it, a deal for the public financing of their new stadium has been put on hold indefinitely. And with a $45 million payroll, they have little to lose, as well. The franchise can only go up in value from here on out.

But Seattle Mariners President, Chuck Armstrong, is rightfully cautious and may have said it best when he told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer in early October that, "I do have great trepidation over the economy. If the good folks in Washington [D.C.] and NY don't know what will happen, I'm not sure we at the Mariners should, either. We'll have to wait and see what happens after the dust settles."

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:32 AM | Comments (2)

October 8, 2008

The Super Sports Day

As my two favorite sports are college football and soccer (I like the country variety slightly more than the club variety), days like this upcoming Saturday are a huge smorgasbord for me that I look forward to for weeks to come. Not only is is a FIFA match date with World Cup 2010 qualifiers being played on every continent except Asia, but it's a full college football day, as well.

On days like this, I like to setup up a couple of TVs and a computer and gorge myself. To make it even more gluttonous, I pay closer attention to sports I don't normally care about. By that I mean, any sport except auto racing is fair game.

I encourage you to do as I do on Saturday and watch as much of it as you can. Here are the big games across all sports.

As far as college football goes, the day starts out strong with Oklahoma vs. Texas at Noon EDT. More often then not, it seems like this game is dulled by the fact that one of the two programs are on a downswing. Not this year. It's the marquee matchup of the week in college football (ESPN's "College GameDay" is going there).

The 3:30 games are nothing special, alas. Notre Dame and North Carolina is the best of an iffy lot. CBS got unlucky that Tennessee stinks this year, or else the Vols traveling to Georgia would look pretty good. I'll give props as well to Michigan State at Northwestern, who are a collective 10-1 coming in.

But don't feel too bad for CBS, they get the best primetime game, LSU at Florida, and there's a couple others matchups of top 25 teams (using the coach's poll anyway), Penn State at Wisconsin and Oklahoma State at Missouri at the same time.

Three great primetime games, and yet they might all have to take a backseat to Game 2 of the ALCS, featuring the getting-to-be-as-obnoxious-and-hatable Red Sox (nation) against everyone's favorite worst-to-first story, the Devil Rays. You see why I want to set up 2-3 TVs and/or computers.

How big of a match day is it World Cup qualifying in Europe? There were 16 teams good enough to qualify for Euro 2008, and eight of them play each other: France at Romania, Portugal at Sweden, Czech Republic at Poland, and Russia at Germany. But there's also Ukraine, who played in the World Cup of 2006, hosting Croatia, and Italy traveling to Bulgaria, ranked 16th in the world. England's in action, too, hosting Kazakhstan.

In CONCACAF, the North American region, five of the six teams that will take place in the final round of qualifying are pretty much settled. Barring a huge string of upsets, it will be the United States, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica, and El Salvador. The sixth team will be either Trinidad & Tobago or Guatemala. They tied their first leg in Trinidad, and Saturday at 10 PM Eastern is the return visit to Guatemala City.

USA, as I mentioned, is pretty much in, and they host Cuba at 4 PM. When the United States hosted Cuba for Olympic qualifying, a slew of Cuban players defected, leaving Cuba with only 11 men — exactly enough to field a team, with no subs. Interesting, then, they the USSF scheduled this game for Washington, DC, where it will be easy to defect.

The headline game for South American qualifying is probably Uruguay, who has been to 10 of 18 World Cups, but narrowly missed qualifying last time and on the periphery again this time, traveling to Argentina to try to pickup some tough points.

It will be the first full Saturday of the NHL season, and five games feature teams that made the playoffs last year at both ends of the ice: Detroit (1W) at Ottawa (7E), New York Rangers (5E) at Philadelphia (6E), Dallas (5W) at Nashville (8W), New Jersey (4E) at Pittsburgh (2E), and Boston (8E) at Minnesota (3W). They may all take a backseat, however, to the NHL's biggest rivalry, with Montreal traveling to Toronto.

One of the few soccer leagues that does not take FIFA match day off is the MLS, which has three games on Saturday, the best of which would be New England at Kansas City.

The PGA, the European PGA, and the Asian PGA all have events this week, the Texas Open, the Madrid Masters, and the Indian Open, respectively.

In tennis, the Tennis Channel will be broadcasting the ladies semifinals of the Kremlin Cup, where Venus Williams has already been ousted.

If you're a rugby fan and you get Setanta USA, you'll get Currie Cup playoffs from South Africa in the morning and Heineken Cup late at night.

There's even a heavyweight championship bout to be won on Sunday, with Vitali Klitschko a slight favorite over Samuel Peter.

But of course, all of this — all of it — takes a back seat to college field hockey, and the Big Ten Network has you covered there, too, with Iowa at Penn State at 5:30 PM EST. Set your alarms.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 30

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson avoided the usual pitfalls of a Talladega race, including huge wrecks and flying debris, to finish ninth, well ahead of his closest competitors in the Chase, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle, who wrecked in the second "big one." Johnson now leads Edwards by 72 points and Biffle by 77.

"On a day like Sunday at Talladega," says Johnson, "it's all about survival. But not necessarily 'survival' of the fittest. Carl Edwards, supposedly the 'fittest' driver among us all, made Talladega his personal demolition ground, while Tony Stewart, who considers being 'in shape' being 'round,' won the race."

"Me? I'm in the same shape I was the last two times I won the Cup — good shape."

2. Greg Biffle — On a lap 174 incident, Biffle got more of a push from Carl Edwards than he needed, and Biffle's No. 16 Ford was sent careening into the oncoming field. Biffle was tagged by Matt Kenseth and in the blink of an eye, Jack Roush's three Chase drivers saw their hopes for victory in pieces. Biffle is now 77 points behind Jimmie Johnson.

"We've become so accustomed all year to giving Carl credit for his accomplishments," says Biffle. "Why stop now? I give him credit for taking out Matt Kenseth and I, as well as several others. It was honorable for him to admit culpability. I'm just dejected that his 'culpability' affects my 'Cup'-ability."

3. Carl Edwards — In an attempt to bump-draft with Greg Biffle on lap 174, Edwards nudged the No. 16 as they entered the turn, sending Biffle sideways and into Matt Kenseth, triggering a huge pileup that took out the Roush Fenway trio as well as three other Chase drivers. Afterwards, Edwards took full blame for the accident that left him 72 points behind Jimmie Johnson in the point standings.

"It's my fault," says Edwards. "I take full responsibility. What's the expression they use on the street these days?"

Ah, "you dumbass?"

"No, not that one. I was thinking of 'my bad.' And this definitely was my 'bad.' But I've made my bed; now I've got to sleep in it. I'm not so upset that I want to crawl under a rock, but I would like to crawl into an open oil lid, should one come available."

4. Jeff Burton — Burton was one of only five Chase drivers to finish on the lead lap in the Amp Energy 500, as Burton deftly avoided the two big wrecks that left many cars in shambles. Burton gained ground on all three drivers ahead of him in the point standings, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 99 points.

"In restrictor plate racing," says Burton. "It's all about patience and concentration, but most of all, it's about luck. That would explain my brother Ward's victory at Daytona in 2002. Ward's been the lucky one of the Burton boys; he got the Daytona 500 win, and he got the cool accent."

5. Tony Stewart — Stewart ended a 43-race winless streak by taking the Amp Energy 500 with a controversial finish in Talladega. Stewart officially led the final 16 laps, but was beaten to the finish line by Regan Smith, who was ruled to have passed Stewart below the yellow line, and Stewart was declared the winner.

"Trust me," says Stewart. "I know what Smith must be feeling. I've been penalized myself for 'crossing the line' on many occasions. I'm proud to raise the 'V' for 'victory' hand gesture for the first time in a long time. The 'V' personifies the confidence and controversy that I evoke in NASCAR circles. I've got the index finger, telling you I'm 'number one,' and the middle finger, telling you you're number one. That's Tony Stewart sign language."

"Now, is it any surprise that NASCAR awarded me the victory? Do they want to deal with the anger and protestations of a rookie, or would they rather deal with a temperamental hot head with a losing streak in a car with a sponsor who's dropping him as an endorser because of his unsavory lifestyle? I think NASCAR knows what's best."

6. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer scored his first top-five finish of the Chase with a fifth in an eventful and crash-filled Amp Energy 500. Bowyer improves two places in the point standings to fifth, 152 out of first.

"It's certainly fitting," says Bowyer, "that the Jack Daniels car finished 'fifth' and is in 'fifth.' Now, I don't condone over-consumption of alcohol, but that had to result in some heavy drinking in the 'Clint Bowyer NASCAR Drinking Game,' of which the home edition is now available on my web site."

7. Kevin Harvick — Like several other Chase drivers, Harvick was victimized in lap 174's "big one," a wreck triggered by Carl Edwards that affected multiple cars and impacted the point standings considerably. Harvick finished 20th, 11 laps down, and dropped to sixth in the points, 171 out of first.

"It's true what they say," says Harvick. "The Talladega race is a 'crapshoot.' Heck, I found myself saying 'crap' and 'shoot,' as well as some other words fit only for Tony Stewart's ears, when I got caught in that big wreck."

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt's promising day at Talladega ended abruptly when he plowed Matt Kenseth's spinning car in the "big one" on lap 174. Earnhardt had led as late as lap 164 and was gunning for the win, but the damage knocked him out of the race and further back in the standings. He is now in 10th, 249 out of first.

"As is the case in every Chase," says Earnhardt, "the Talladega race is the true 'wildcard' in the Chase. It's too bad that Carl Edwards got to play 'dealer' for half of the Chase field. I guess there's a 'joker' in every deck."

"As for DEI's Regan Smith, he nearly pulled off one of the most improbable Talladega wins in history. To survive 500 miles of dangerous, crash-filled racing and then have the rug pulled from under you has to be heartbreaking. The 'no passing below the yellow line' rule is just as vague as NASCAR's drug policy, and, as always, NASCAR has applied a liberal dose of Grecian Formula to cover up the gray area in their rules."

9. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth was collected in the lap 174 wreck-festival triggered by Carl Edwards bump of Greg Biffle. Biffle's No. 16 Ford was sent directly into the No. 17 of Kenseth, which was then rammed by Dale Earnhardt. Kenseth finished 26th and is now 245 points behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I'm angry," says Kenseth. "In fact, I'm furious. Unfortunately, no one can tell. Carl Edwards offered an olive branch, but I was having none of it. Don't get me wrong. I would have accepted an apology, but I mistook his olive branch as a threat that he was going to 'beat me with a stick.'"

10. Jeff Gordon — While trying to avoid the spinning car of David Reutimann, who had cut a tire, Gordon slammed the wall on lap 53, severely damaging his No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet, and all but terminating his title hopes. Gordon finished 38th, and his fifth "DNF" of the year is by far the most of all Chase drivers.

"As I proved last week in Kansas," says Gordon. "It's a lot tougher driving a car that is a wreck than driving a car when you're a wreck."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:51 AM | Comments (0)

October 7, 2008

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Take a quick look at some statistics from the last few years, watch his game-winning catch this weekend, and tell me Reggie Wayne isn't one of the two or three best wide receivers in the NFL.

* The Colts rank 31st in time of possession and 32nd in rushing offense. That they have won two games is incredible.

* 1,000 boos to CBS for making Cowboys/Bengals its national game this week. I know it turned out to be close, but why did they choose a game that figured to be a blowout?

* The Vikings might want to work on their special teams coverage.

* Must-see for Week 6: Carolina at Tampa Bay. If the Buccaneers are going to be competitive in the NFC South, they probably need a win.

***

Is Peyton Manning is the best comeback QB in the history of professional football?

Of course not — it has to be Joe Montana, or John Elway. Or Captain Comeback himself, Roger Staubach. Maybe even the legendary Johnny Unitas.

But Manning is now the only quarterback ever to lead a 17-point comeback in the last five minutes of a game — and he's done it twice. I know Manning got plenty of help from his defense on Sunday — that's inevitable in such a dramatic comeback — but he also led a 15-point comeback against Minnesota in Week 2. In fact, I would venture that even before this season's heroics, Manning had led two of the ten greatest comebacks in league history.

The first came in 2003. On Monday Night Football, facing the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, with their great defense, the Colts trailed 35-14 with about four minutes left in the game. Manning went 8-of-11 for 133 yards and the Colts scored 3 TDs — in 3:05 — to send the game to overtime, where Manning led a 15-play, 76-yard game-winning drive.

In the 2006 AFC Championship Game, the Patriots got off to an early 21-3 lead, but Manning led the Colts to 32 second-half points and Indianapolis advanced to Super Bowl XLI. The 18-point comeback is the biggest in conference Championship Game history.

It's not just that Manning has led a lot of comebacks, though he certainly has. More impressive is that he has led amazing comebacks. No one thought a team could score three TDs in three minutes against one of the NFL's best defenses. No one thought the Colts would come back against New England in that AFC Championship Game. And this week, no one thought the Colts had a chance, down 27-10 with under five minutes left.

Is Peyton Manning is the best comeback QB in the history of professional football? I don't know. But he certainly deserves to be part of the conversation, right there with Elway and Staubach.

On to the power rankings, with brackets showing last week's rank.

1. New York Giants [3] — Statement game. This weekend, the Giants went out and proved they were just fine without Plaxico Burress. They didn't just beat the Seahawks, they humiliated them. The Giants had more than twice as many first downs, more than twice as many yards per play, and nearly three times as many yards on offense. Tom Coughlin looks very smart today.

2. Washington Redskins [4] — By the book, they're not a top-10 defense (13th in yards allowed, 11th in points). But look at who they've played: the Giants (first in total offense), Saints (4th), Cardinals (5th), Cowboys (3rd), and Eagles (9th). Every opponent a top-10 offense, but Washington has yet to allow more than 24 points this season. This is a very, very good unit.

3. Tennessee Titans [2] — I have a lot of respect for 5-0, but who's the best team they've beaten? Jacksonville? Minnesota? Baltimore? Those are all middle-of-the-pack teams. I do think the Titans are for real, but I'm not convinced that they can hang with the heavy hitters in the NFC East. Tennessee hasn't played anyone with a winning record.

4. Carolina Panthers [9] — Winning with defense: they're top-five in opponents' yards, points, first downs, and passer rating. The starting cornerbacks, Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas, both deserve Pro Bowl consideration.

5. Dallas Cowboys [1] — Looked awfully unfocused against Cincinnati. After they went up 17-0 on the Bengals, they seemed to sleepwalk through the next two quarters, finally showing some life again when they realized Cincinnati might actually beat them. I'm beginning to feel like Dallas is just living on Jason Witten and the offensive line. Tony Romo makes too many mistakes, and the defense is just average.

6. Chicago Bears [12] — Here's why they're ahead of Pittsburgh: strength of schedule. Look at who Chicago has played: Colts, Panthers, Bucs, Eagles. The one time they played a bad team, this weekend against the Lions, it was a rout. The Bears also beat the team Pittsburgh lost to (Philadelphia).

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — Haven't played anyone with a winning record. Their opponents have a combined mark of 7-14. We'll find out how good the Steelers really are starting around Week 8, when they have consecutive games against the Giants, Washington, Indianapolis, and San Diego. The good news? Three of those four are in Pittsburgh.

8. Denver Broncos [13] — This seems a little too high after they managed to lose against Kansas City last week, but the Broncos beat my 9th-ranked team, so they get the benefit of the doubt for now. Denver suffered some injuries in Week 5 that could be problematic down the line, most notably WR Eddie Royal and TE Tony Scheffler.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [10] — Would you believe their offense (7th in yards per game) is ranked higher than their defense (16th)? Head coach Jon Gruden said after their loss to Denver that the Broncos used a lot of "Tampa 2" defense. Shouldn't his team know how to beat that?

10. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — One of the better 2-3 teams you're likely to see, but they need to start winning games, not just keeping it close against good opponents. There's no shame in losing to Dallas, Chicago, or Washington, and the Eagles are still the only team to beat Pittsburgh this year. But they need Brian Westbrook and Shawn Andrews to get healthy. Philadelphia is 28th in rushing offense.

11. San Diego Chargers [5] — I think they took the Dolphins for granted, looking ahead to their Week 6 matchup with New England. The Dolphins really dominated them in every phase of the game. Punter Mike Scifres was San Diego's MVP against Miami.

12. Minnesota Vikings [15] — I hate ESPN. On this week's MNF, the crew entirely missed a 15-yard penalty called on Antoine Winfield after his TD. Mike Tirico called the ensuing kickoff a short kick, but it was really an average kick from the 15-yard line. They never caught their mistake, so viewers had to go online to find the penalty call. Later, on Reggie Bush's second punt return TD, they used a camera angle at which you couldn't tell what was happening. Just show the damn game.

13. Buffalo Bills [6] — J.P. Losman looked pretty good throwing the ball after Trent Edwards went down with a concussion, but his fumbles were disastrous. The defense was actually okay against Arizona, except that they needed big plays — sacks, interceptions, fumbles — and never got them. Buffalo's defense had the best 3rd down percentage in the NFL before this week (19%), but the Cardinals converted 60% of their third downs on Sunday.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — Last week I criticized Andy Reid for trying a 50-yard field goal instead of going for it on 4th-and-1. But what was Jack Del Río thinking when he went for it on 4th-and-7 instead of trying a 52-yard kick? And why wouldn't Gregg Williams blitz in the first half? The 5-man rush he finally used in the second half was pretty effective. The Jaguars had no business beating Pittsburgh on Sunday night, but with some better coaching decisions, they probably could have.

15. New Orleans Saints [16] — Tony Kornheiser drooled all over Bush on Monday night. In the closing moments, he even asked, "What more could you have done to win this game than Reggie Bush did?" Hang on, I know this one.

[A] You could have not fumbled twice. [B] You could have not fallen down for no reason on a punt return. [C] You could have rushed for more than 29 yards and a 2.4 average. [D] All of the above.

The answer is D. Please, please get Kornheiser off Monday Night Football.

16. Baltimore Ravens [17] — There's a lot of talk about that questionable roughing call that may have cost them the game against Tennessee. It was clearly a bad call, but it was consistent. All game, Bill Carollo's officiating crew made ticky-tack calls. It started right away, with six penalties during Baltimore's first possession. Both teams finished with double-digit penalties, including a total of nine 15-yard infractions for personal fouls or unsportsmanlike conduct. Part of that was rough play, but a lot of it was bad officiating.

17. Arizona Cardinals [19] — I get that they have great receivers, but where is the balance on offense? Arizona is 3rd in passing yards, but 24th in rushing. They might be able to steal an NFC West title without a running game, but they won't win a playoff game.

18. New England Patriots [20] — Dominated time of possession 2:1 against San Francisco. New England controlled the clock with 43 running plays and terrific third-down defense. I'm not sure how much of it is Matt Cassel and how much is the offensive line, but Cassel has got to stop taking so many sacks.

19. Indianapolis Colts [18] — As much credit as Manning deserves for the big comeback, how about some serious love for Gary Brackett? With Texans chasing him, Brackett outran everyone 68 yards to the end zone for a touchdown. Manning threw 2 TD passes in those last five minutes, but without some help from the defense — and Brackett's hustle in particular — the Colts lose that game.

20. Green Bay Packers [14] — Aaron Rodgers played well, bad shoulder and all, but they still lost. Blame defensive injuries. Standouts Charles Woodson and A.J. Hawk played hurt, but the bigger losses were lineman Cullen Jenkins and DBs Al Harris and Atari Bigby, all of whom missed the game. Jenkins was playing at Pro Bowl level before tearing a pectoral muscle in Week 4, but he'll miss the rest of the season.

21. New York Jets [21] — Brett Favre turns 39 this week. The only quarterbacks who have made a Pro Bowl after turning 38 were Phil Simms (39) and Warren Moon (39, 41), who was named Pro Bowl MVP at age 41.

22. Miami Dolphins [27] — Everyone wants to talk about that "Wildcat" formation with Ronnie Brown getting the direct snap, but how about their defense against the Chargers? San Diego was averaging 34.5 ppg before Sunday, and Miami held them to 10.

23. Atlanta Falcons [26] — This offense needs to be taken seriously, but Roddy White accounts for more than 50% of the team's passing yardage, so if you can shut him down, Atlanta may be in trouble. Michael Turner leads the league in rushing yards.

24. Cleveland Browns [24] — Brutal schedule over the next six weeks: Giants, Washington, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, and Buffalo. If they haven't shored up their passing attack, they'll go 1-5 or maybe even 0-6 over that stretch.

25. San Francisco 49ers [22] — On Sunday, J.T. O'Sullivan had season-worsts in passing yards, interceptions, and passer rating. Why didn't Frank Gore get more carries against New England? It's tempting to blame this on offensive coordinator Mike Martz. We all know Martz likes to throw, but if it's not working and you have a great running back, you should probably start handing off.

26. Seattle Seahawks [23] — There's been a lot of attention given to their miserable offense (28th in passing yardage), but the defense may be even worse. The Seahawks are 26th in yards allowed and are one of only four teams giving up more than 30 points per game.

27. Houston Texans [25] — Killer schedule. They've played the Steelers, Titans, Jaguars, and Colts, with only one home game so far. The good news is that the next three games are all at home, against beatable opponents: Miami, Detroit, and Cincinnati.

28. Oakland Raiders [28] — How long until Al Davis fires new head coach Tom Cable? This franchise has become a joke.

29. Cincinnati Bengals [30] — In Week 3, they took the Giants to overtime, the only close game New York has had this season. In Week 5, they put a scare into the Cowboys. In between, they lost at home to Cleveland. Does Carson Palmer make that much difference?

30. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — It's difficult to adequately describe their badness. That win over Denver last week looks awfully like a fluke.

31. St. Louis Rams [32] — Here is my leap of faith: the Rams out of 32nd during their bye week. Rams, say thank you to Detroit.

32. Detroit Lions [31] — Haven't had a lead all season and haven't scored in the first quarter all season. With the Lions, garbage time starts in the second or third quarter.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:58 AM | Comments (3)

European Tour vs. PGA Tour: Game On?

The European Tour announced its 2009 schedule this past weekend at Turnberry resort. The schedule is the first to be released since the announcement of the formation of the Race to Dubai and the Dubai World Championship.

The Race to Dubai is what was formerly known as the European Tour Order of Merit. At the end of the Race to Dubai season — early November — the top 60 players on the Race to Dubai money list will then qualify for the culminating event known as the Dubai World Championship. The Dubai World Championship will have a $10 million purse. On top of that, the Race to Dubai will have a $10 million bonus pool that is awarded at the end of the Dubai World Championship for the top 15 players in the Race to Dubai money list. In effect, the winning putt at the Dubai World Championship could be worth approximately $3.7 million.

The allure of $3.7 million for one tournament is enough to draw the attention of the best players in the world. Many are rumored to be considering accepting full membership on the European Tour in 2009, including Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh.

After actions by the European Tour Players' Committee in the last 10 days, these top stars will simply have to play in 12 European Tour events next season. Since the four majors and three World Golf Championship events (six of seven staged in America, ironically enough) are on the schedule for the best in the world, many will simply have to play five more events — including two staged in Europe — to likely qualify for the Dubai World Championship.

In addition to the potential payoff at the Dubai World Championship, European Tour events sponsors have the luxury of offering lucrative appearance fees to players before they even play the event. For a man like Mickelson, who commands $1 million as an appearance fee, he stands to gain millions of dollars for making more appearances at mediocre European Tour events instead of mediocre PGA Tour events.

Of course, the potential for more appearances on the European Tour by perennial PGA Tour players has the Euro Tour brass and Euro golf media claiming a changing of the guard in golf is eminent. As Lee Corso says, "Not so fast, my friends." (I suppose John McCain says that too.)

What does the Race to Dubai really get the European Tour? At a macro level, it turns out to be not much. The best players in the world only have to play five more events on the European Tour schedule to qualify for the Race to Dubai. Two of those events have to be staged in Europe.

That means that it is almost assured that three of the five events of choice for the Euro Tour invaders will not be played in Europe proper. Those events are likely to be the HSBC Champions tournament in China, and the Dubai Double of the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship and the Dubai Desert Classic. In 2009, the Abu Dhabi Championship will not be on that list because the HSBC Champions will actually be played twice before the Dubai World Championship. Therefore, next season, the HSBC Champions and Dubai Desert Classic will be stacked. Other events are not likely to see better fields.

The Abu Dhabi event may not see better fields even after 2009, though. It is possible that three Europe-based events will see stronger fields as a result of the Race to Dubai.

One will certainly be the BMW PGA Championship. The European equivalent of the Players Championship, it is an event that already carries both prestige and a large purse (approximately $8 million, depending on the exchange rate). Euro invaders will certainly be interested.

The Barclays Scottish Open is the tune up for the Open Championship. The quality of field for the Scottish Open has improved significantly in recent years as players in the Open have opted to take a two week trip, play a great course in Loch Lomond, and get some free money to play in Europe. Invaders will opt for convenience and flood the Scottish Open to get another European event off of their list.

Other Europe-based events that may potentially grow as a result of the Race to Dubai are the new Volvo World Match Play Championship and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

But, what does that all get the European Tour on the whole? Most of the events that have been discussed in this piece are already considered top priority events for players. These events will simply see better fields than in the past. Existing events that are used to having only occasional appearances from top draws will continue to face the same issues.

Meanwhile, not much hurt will come to the PGA Tour as a result of this. The only event or series of events that will likely suffer because of the Race to Dubai is the Colonial or part of the new Texas Swing — cast alongside the BMW PGA Championship. Even in that case, Phil Mickelson will not be able to play in the BMW PGA Championship because of a sponsorship deal with Crowne Plaza that has brought us some pretty funny commercials.

What's more is that the European Tour is taking a big gamble by accepting so much money from Leisurecorp, the Dubai-based and Emirate-run real estate company. With a pending global economic slowdown, precipitous drop in oil prices, and decreasing global demand for real estate, the Emirate money may dry up sooner than later. In effect, the Race to Dubai may not be any more certain of an investment than the fact that almost two-thirds of the PGA Tour schedule has ties to the financial services industry. At least the PGA Tour's tournament lottery is sponsored by a relatively bulletproof company — FedEx.

In the end, the Race to Dubai may not mean much to change the status of the European Tour as the second best Tour in the world of professional golf. It may help several European events grow, but will ultimately mean very little to the European Tour as a whole. George O'Grady may be thrilled for what he has accomplished, but there is good reason for his excitement to be tepid and his willingness to challenge the PGA Tour for dominance to be weak.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 11:07 AM | Comments (1)

October 6, 2008

82 Things to Watch For This NBA Season (Pt. 2)

Also see: Pt. 1

Last week, in part one of my five-part NBA season preview, I focused primarily on the biggest names and what to look for from some of the league's biggest stars in the coming months.

Today, in part two, I continue the countdown of the 82 things to watch for this NBA season by taking a look at the potential breakout players for the 2008-09 season.

71. Kevin Durant

Durant was pretty much a lock for the Rookie of the Year after Greg Oden blew out his knee before the start of last season. Even with all of the expectations hovering around him, Durant still easily took home Rookie of the Year honors. That, however, didn't stop some people (including me) from being critical of his overall game. In my NBA Oscars article, I even called him out for (at the time) having more games in which he scored in single digits than in the 30s.

At a second glance, however, Durant's rookie season may have been the first chapter in the career of an amazing NBA scorer.

Let me put it in perspective. For his rookie season, Durant averaged 20.3 points per game and shot 43% from the field. Compare that to the rookie seasons of the top five scorers in the league last year:

LeBron James: 20.9 points, 41%; Kobe Bryant: 7.6 points, 41%; Allen Iverson: 23.5 points, 41%; Carmelo Anthony: 21.0 points, 42%; Amare Stoudemire: 13.5 points, 47%.

Durant's rookie season, played at roughly the same age as the five players previously listed, is on par or better statistically than each of those players rookie campaigns. If he can continue his natural progression, which all indications say that he will, he could find himself in the conversation of elite NBA scorers sooner rather than later.

70. Greg Oden

Oden ranked in as the biggest disappointment of the 2007-08 season, simply because he didn't play a single game. His knee injury and ensuing micro-fracture surgery derailed the beginning of a potential Larry Bird/Magic Johnson or Carmelo/LeBron-type rivalry with Durant last season and opened the door for critics to say that Oden will spend his entire career hobbled by injuries.

Oden's bid to silence those critics became even tougher after rolling his ankle last week in practice. Though the injury was minor and won't force Oden to miss any significant time, it serves as a reminder that until he steps on to Staples Center floor on October 28th, he is just loads of unreached potential.

He's spent a year hearing criticisms, now he has an entire career to disprove them.

(Two quick notes on potential unforeseen bonuses to Oden missing all of last season: 1) Since he didn't play a single game last season, he is still eligible to win Rookie of the Year this year; 2) The Cowboys drafted running back Felix Jones before Oden officially became an NBA player, thus meaning that Greg Oden will never hold the title of "oldest looking rookie in the history of sports." The glass is half full, Blazers fans.)

69. Jeff Green
68. Al Horford
67. Luis Scola
66. Al Thorton

AKA the other four players on the NBA All-Rookie team besides Kevin Durant. These guys are important to watch for because, inevitably, each year there will be at least one second-year player who breaks out of the role of "serviceable NBA player" to "legitimate NBA star in the making."

In the 2004-05 season, we had Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. In 2005-06, it was it was Dwight Howard. The 2006-07 season saw the breakthrough of the next generation of NBA point guards in Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Last year, it was Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, and LaMarcus Aldridge.

Each example listed above was a First Team All-Rookie member that took their game to new heights in their sophomore season. Will Durant be alone making the leap this year, or is his teammate Jeff Green or one of the Al's going join him on his quest to superstardom?

65. Rodney Stuckey

What I didn't mention previously is that you don't have to be a First-Team All-Rookie player to have a breakthrough second season. Sometimes rookies, for whatever reason (injuries, lack of playing time, ect.), stumble out of the block, only to turn a corner late in the year.

Rodney Stuckey is one of those rookies.

Stuckey missed the Pistons first 25 games last season after breaking his hand in their final exhibition game. He had to work his way back into favor with now former head coach Flip Saunders, as well as play his way back into game shape. His rookie growing pains came in January and February, not before the calendar changes like most rookies.

After shaking off the rust, however, Stuckey made his presence felt as one of the most promising young guards in the league. He averaged 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists per game after the All-Star Break in just 21 minutes of action. He then elevated his game to become a go-to scorer in the playoffs for a Pistons team chalk full of proven veterans.

Just how impressed is new Pistons head coach Michael Curry with Rodney Stuckey? He has vowed to cut the minutes of Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups, each of whom has played in the previous three All-Star Games, in order to ensure that Stuckey gets at least 30 minutes per game.

64. Derrick Rose
63. Michael Beasley
62. O.J. Mayo
61. Russell Westbrook
60. Kevin Love

These five players were the first five players selected in the draft back in June. They aren't just young players with tons of potential that can give hope to otherwise hopeless NBA cities. They are, in all likelihood, future stars in the NBA. Well, some of them will be.

Since the lottery began in 1985, excluding the previous two draft classes because their sampling doesn't date back long enough, there has been a player drafted in the top five that has gone on to become an all-star multiple times in every draft except the 2001 class. That's 20 out of 21 years that there has been a borderline superstar available at the top of every draft board.

The flip side to that coin is that no draft class in the lottery era has had all of its top five picks go on to be all-stars at some point in their career. There is always at least one player who never reaches his potential.

This year's class comes in with no shortage of potential and/or hype. Some of these players may be great, some may be flops, but all of them will be given a chance to prove himself at the NBA level. Are any of these players ready to step up and represent class of '08, or will we see a repeat of the Kwame Brown-led dud draft class of 2001?

59. The Unknown Rookie

Your guess is as good as mine is as to who this player will be, but just know this: from 1998 to 2005, there was an all-star drafted with the 15th pick or later in every draft. And of the players selected in the '05, '06, and '07 drafts, there are a handful of players in each class that you could make a case for them being an all-star at some point in their career.

No one knows who the 2008 version of Gilbert Arenas or Carlos Boozer will be, but there is one out there. Only time will tell us who it is.

58. The Top New Import

Recently, there have been fewer and fewer European players coming over and making an immediate impact on the league. Since 2004, there have only been five foreign-born players on the All-Rookie team.

This year, Danilo Gallinari of the Knicks was the only foreign-born lottery pick. Still, as Louis Scola proved last year, there is always an international player than can come over and be a difference-maker for his team.

57. Jermaine O'Neal

Obviously, Jermaine O'Neal had his breakout season many years and many knee injuries ago. If he can just stay healthy and bounce back from last season where he played only played in 42 games, he has a chance to be a real impact player for the Toronto Raptors playing alongside Chris Bosh.

O'Neal hasn't played 70 games in a season since 2004, but the Raptors took a flier on him knowing that if he can return to form he could be the upgrade the Raptors need to factor in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The trade to bring in Jermaine O'Neal not only solidifies the Raptors' front court, but clears space in the backcourt to allow Jose Calderon to be the full-time point guard.

There are too many best-case-scenarios that need to work out for this trade to be a big enough deal that the Raptors become a real threat to win the Atlantic, but at least the Raptors are trying something to keep pace with the ever-expanding, tough Eastern Conference.

56. Ramon Sessions

When talking about Rodney Stuckey, I listed some of the reasons that rookies don't breakout until the end of the year, but I forget to mention this one: they aren't even in the league yet.

Ramon Sessions of the Milwaukee Bucks was a D League star point guard until Mo Williams went down late last year and the Bucks added him to the roster. All he did after making his debut on March 9th was set the Bucks' record for assists in a game (24) and put up the only "20 and 20" game in this history of the franchise.

Despite being on the team for just a little over a month last year, the Bucks had enough confidence in Sessions to trade away Mo Williams and make Sessions their starting point guard in just his second NBA season.

If what we saw last year was more than just a mirage, fans in the beer city may have the next Scott Skiles on their hands, only without the bald spot and overall smugness.

Only three more weeks until we know for sure.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:47 AM | Comments (1)

Setting the Stage For October

Rays and Brewers and Cubs will battle in October. Even the Twins have a shot to crash the party. But the Yankees, Tigers, Mets, and their nine-figure payrolls failed to make the guest list.

Maybe not the party the networks were looking for. With the first Yankee absence from the playoffs since the strike and the second straight collapse of the Mets, Wall Street is not the only thing in New York that's upside-down. And the rest of the league is proving that money isn't everything. And that is a good thing, considering the rate it seems to evaporate these days. (I'm talking about Andruw Jones and Barry Zito, not the financial crisis. This is a sports column, isn't it? Besides, their contracts lost every bit as much of their market value as any home.)

Sportswriters and true fans have plenty to sink their teeth into in terms of storylines. The Rays exorcised the Devil from their name and the demons from their game, and now enter the postseason as the great unknown. They will meet the NL Central champion White Sox after they knocked off the Twins for a playoff spot that was supposed to come down to the Indians and Tigers.

The Phillies try to win their first World Series since 1980, which happens to be the last time a team from the title-starved city won a championship. The opposing Brewers somehow seem even more hopeless, not having even been to one since 1982, and enduring even fewer bearable years in the meantime.

Ex-Red Sox slugger Manny Ramirez and ex-Yankee skipper Joe Torre team up to lead the Dodgers back to the postseason. If you can name a stranger combination of personalities, let me know, because I completely failed to come up with an analogy that did it justice. And speaking of title-hunger pangs, I think I read something about a 100-year anniversary of a certain playoff franchise's most recent title?

And with all the new and famished teams, the best team in baseball (Angels) faces off with the Red Sox, who take the Yankees' mantle of team for the nation at large to root against. After all, with the largest remaining payroll and two titles in the past four years, they aren't exactly the lovable losers of years past. That and their ubiquitous and rarely subdued fan base leave them as ready to carry the torch as anyone.

So while Hank Steinbrenner inexplicably whines about the wild card system being un-American and potentially Satanic (despite his team finishing third in his division), the non-New York baseball world can buckle up because with most of the teams either held back a bit by hitting, starters, bullpen, experience, or a 100-year monkey on its back, it should be a roller-coaster ride with more harrowing ups-and-downs than the stock market.

And now, my selections for awards...

MVP

(NL) Albert Pujols — Statistically, it doesn't get more clear-cut. And the Cardinals had a mish-mash pitching staff that lost its top two starters for much of the year, a relatively unimposing lineup around him (peaking with Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus), and a bullpen that blew 30 saves. That he kept them in the race for five-and-a-half months is incredible. Manny Ramirez is next up (you have to consider combined stats), but I don't see Ramirez staying focused like Pujols with that cast. Put Pujols in L.A. instead of Manny, though, and do you really think the Dodgers' playoff chances would be hurt any?

(AL) Carlos Quentin — By far the most complex and debatable choice. There aren't really any dominant players that stood out above all others. Quentin and Milton Bradley were the most dangerous hitters based on Sabermatics (plus a tremendous season from Kevin Youkilis), but neither could finish the season healthy. Alex Rodriguez again put up the quietest 104-35-103 season (plus 18 steals) possible, and also had great OPS and OBP. But the Yankees underperformed and A-Rod's clutchness remains questioned. Grady Sizemore posted a 30-30 season, but the rest of his numbers, while solid, don't establish separation.

Dustin Pedroia, the favorite of many to win, has been the Red Sox's do-it-all man, but he hit 19 fewer homers and an OPS over 100 points lower than Quentin. Quentin gets the nod because he came out of nowhere, led a surprising White Sox team to the playoffs, (him not being there down the stretch was a factor in it being so close), and hit 36 homers and drove in 100 despite playing in just 130 games. He was top four in the AL in OBP, OPS, and slugging. As good a choice as any.

Cy Young

(NL) Tim Lincecum — In every stat but wins and maybe height, the Giants ace stands above everyone. And with 17 wins, it should be enough. He was more dominant than a 22-win Brandon Webb, and had 5 saves blown for him. Webb had 1. Oh, and in five other starts, Lincecum allowed 1 run or less, and did not get a win. What else can the guy do?

(AL) Cliff Lee — And for the Indians' out-of-nowhere ace, it's not close.

Manager of the Year

(NL) Tony LaRussa — By a nose over Lou Piniella. The Cardinals finished 11.5 games back of the Cubs. They also had two fewer ace-caliber starters, an offense with equal or better hitters in just about every lineup spot, and some electric arms in the bullpen. You could argue the 30 blown saves are a knock on LaRussa's managing, but the point was that no one in the Cardinals' bullpen could get anyone out; his selections were irrelevant. Piniella will probably win, but LaRussa has never done a better job. Charlie Manuel also gets credit for keeping the Phillies atop the East.

(AL) Joe Maddon — If getting a team to play beyond expectations is your key barometer of a great managing job, as it is mine, the Rays' coach is a sure thing. Surprisingly close is the Twins' Ron Gardenhire. Johan Santana-less, Torii Hunter-less, reaching a playoff for the division was far beyond anything anyone could have asked from Minnesota.

Rookie of the Year

(NL) Geovany Soto — Mike Piazza was the only rookie catcher to have ever hit more than Soto's 23 homers. Soto was by every measure the top offensive catcher in the NL outside of Brian McCann, and also did a great job handling an excellent staff.

(AL) Evan Longoria — Rays third-baseman is even more of a no-brainer than Lee. On another plane.

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 11:24 AM | Comments (2)

October 3, 2008

NBA Offseason Review: West (Pt. 2)

Also see: NBA Offseason Review: West (Pt. 1)

As we prepare to embark upon a new season of NBA competition, several teams have made great strides during the offseason to improve upon there level of talent. But while some have gotten stronger, others are going nowhere fast. Some once great teams are now beginning to fall victim to the natural sports cycle of "talent turnover," which all teams of all sports must inevitably accept as their shared fate. Older players decline, younger ones improve, and departed talent is replaced for better or worse.

It is this cycle that gives us hope for each new season; a chance for us to overtake our rivals and send them plunging perilously towards rebuilding mode; it's the sheer possibility of finally seeing your team turn the proverbial corner (unless, of course, you're a fan of the Hawks, Clippers, or Grizzlies). Find out which teams have dug their own grave this season, who we need to be looking out for, and who is simply treading water. In this three-part series covering the Western Conference, you'll notice that the balance of power is definitely shifting, but you might not like how it's turning out.

Western Conference Part Two: "Have They Done Enough?"

L.A. Clippers

While I by no means believe that the Clippers have a chance at making a deep playoff run this season, I thought it would be appropriate to put them in the "Have They Done Enough?" column, due to their huge roster shake up this offseason, most of which was a desperate attempt to fill the Elton Brand void.

Just as the stars were beginning to align just right for the desperate and mistreated Clippers fans, their fortunes took a nosedive as Elton Brand, the center piece of the team, jumped ship and signed clear across the country with the Philadelphia 76ers. This was mere days after the Clippers were able to finagle Baron Davis, one of the most explosive point guards in the league, away from the Warriors with a lucrative contract.

I can guarantee you that many teams in the West were beginning to swallow hard at the thought of a Davis/Brand combo. And that's not to mention the supporting cast of Chris Kaman, Al Thornton, Cuttino Mobley, and this year's first-rounder, Eric Gordon. Oh well, Clippers fans should of known it was too good to be true.

With the huge void Elton Brand left, the Clippers were able to acquire a few noteworthy pieces, however. For starters, they were given Marcus Camby on a silver platter by the Denver Nuggets. They also signed free agent journeymen Ricky Davis and Brian Skinner to moderately-priced contracts. These additions, along with a couple other minor tweaks, have done enough to make the Clippers relevant this season, but I just can't see them having a shot at a title.

The combination of Camby and Kaman in the frontcourt will create some stalwart defense, but I'd feel a lot better about it if Camby wasn't turning 35 this season. Nonetheless, with these two holding their own up front, and Baron Davis running wild on the other side of the court, the L.A. Clippers should be in good position to surprise a few teams this year. Unfortunately, just "surprising" teams won't cut it in the Western Conference.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz didn't make any big splashes this offseason, and to the disappointment of some fans, Andrei Kirilenko and his bloated contract are still with the team. Rumors have swirled for some time now about Kirilenko being moved, but at the end of the day, there just wasn't a deal in place to bring back enough value for the Jazz. Don't get me wrong, Kirilenko is a nice player. He's got a very unique game, with great defensive skills that the Jazz don't want to lose. But he has conflicted with Jerry Sloan's role for him in the offense for years, and his contract, a staggering $49 million over the next three seasons, makes him the highest paid Jazz player. Is he really more valuable to the team than Carlos Boozer or Deron Williams? I don't think so.

Other than miss on their efforts to move Kirilenko, the Jazz made an extremely smart decision to quickly sign all-star point guard Deron Williams to an extension. The Atlanta Hawks should take notes of how these things work. The Jazz made sure Williams knew he was wanted, and that they would work with him on the extension, not against him. Now they can enjoy his services as one of the elite point guards in the league for at least the next 4-5 years (the last year has a player option).

With the resigning of C.J. Miles, a minor trade involving backup point guards, and the drafting of Kosta Koufos, the Jazz's offseason was pretty much complete. All in all, not necessarily a bad job, but I can't help but wonder if it was really enough. Koufos may turn out to be a fine center for them, in two to three years anyway. And with so many teams improving, it just seems like the Jazz have decided to play it safe this year, which is not a good thing.

I mean, this is essentially the same team as last year, and if they couldn't get it done then, what's going to be different this time around? Being financially strapped, they're basically banking on their younger players in Miles, Ronnie Brewer, Morris Almond, and Paul Milsap to continue improving and hopefully carry them over the threshold. I like that group of youngsters, but I wouldn't bet my whole season on them. Either way, there's no denying that the Utah Jazz will be right there again this year, competing for a title. However, if they fall short once more, look for things to get shaken up a bit next summer.

New Orleans Hornets

I know, I know, "How can you even think of putting the Hornets in this category? They signed James Posey away from the Celtics, a player who helped them win the championship!" Look, I'm not as high on the Posey signing as many are, and here's why.

Reason No. 1: James Posey is a good contributor. He's a solid role player, with a tough defensive mindset. He shoots a nice percentage from downtown and doesn't mind coming off the bench to help his team. That all being said, I still don't believe what he brings to the table for the Hornets is what they need to push them over the top.

I fully expected the Hornets to go after a big man as their key offseason addition. Despite having Tyson Chandler and David West in the frontcourt, as well as Hilton Armstrong coming off the bench, I can't help but feel like another proven frontcourt presence would have served them well this season. West is known to have some slight durability issues, and the depth is almost non-existent there. Meanwhile, Posey is added to a position(s) where there are a host of other players already vying for playing time.

Reason No. 2: As I just stated above, the Hornets currently have the likes of Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown, and the underrated, up-and-coming Julian Wright playing the same position as Posey. The former two are guaranteed to be under contract for the next three seasons still. A drop-off of playing time such as this is liable to create some locker room negativity over the course of the next couple seasons. I also feel bad for Julian Wright. He made the most of the brief time he got last season, and appears to have some real promise as an NBA player. Now he can look forward to being stranded on the bench for the next two to three years.

Reason No. 3: The final reason I'm not happy about the Posey deal is because it is a bad contract. He is 31-years-old, and will no doubt see his productivity decline over the next four years. Yet the Hornets just signed him to a contract that pays him as if he were heading in to the prime of his career. In fact, the main reason he chose to sign with the Hornets instead of a host of other teams, including the Celtics, was because no one else was willing to give him a fourth guaranteed year on his contract. Doesn't that kind of seem like a red flag? Are the Hornets overpaying for a guy simply because of his past roles on championship teams?

While Posey can definitely help this team now, he is going to be hurting them (financially) later on. I predict that the last year or possibly even two years of the contract (in which he'll be making $6.5 and $7 million), Posey will be one of those classically frustrating guys at the end of the bench, who were once solid, but are no longer able to justify the size of their contract that they signed years ago, and have thus become a wasted roster spot, and a waste of salary cap space, as well. Now if he helps bring a championship to New Orleans before that happens, then it will all be worth it. But I'm not convinced he will.

Aside form this whole mess above, the Hornets also lost out on a key bench guy in Jannero Pargo, who left for greener pastures in Europe this season. Pargo wasn't great, but he was a really good backup point guard to Chris Paul. With him gone, I'm not sure they have anyone they can rely on to run the team when Paul's not on the floor (and don't say Mike James, either). Apparently, they're planning on using Devin Brown in this spot, but I'm not optimistic about that situation.

Depth is a key concept in any sport and the NBA is no different. With the Hornets electing to go small (relatively) instead of big with their free agency, and their inability to keep depth at point guard, I'm worried these issues will come back to haunt them over the long, grueling season ahead.

Still wondering how your team panned out this offseason? You might get your answer in the next part of this Western Conference series, entitled "The Declining Supremacy."

Posted by Kenneth Dean at 11:07 AM | Comments (6)

October 2, 2008

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 5

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3)

In a battle of former AFC Central foes, the resurgent Ravens host the undefeated and AFC South-leading Titans. While much has changed since the two rivals slugged it out in the Central, Sunday's contest promises the same intensity and emotion.

"Ah, the good old days," says Jeff Fisher. "When I had a black quarterback with only a fragile body, not a fragile psyche. I remember those battles with Baltimore well. Steve McNair running and throwing, and Tony Siragussa making holes in offensive lines disappear. Times have changed, though. McNair's retired, and Siragussa's only making holes in donuts disappear. But the Ravens still have Ray Lewis, so I still consider them hostile."

Lewis is still the leader of the Baltimore defense, which has been dominant so far this year. As the citizens of Baltimore know, a dominant Ravens defense is as much a part of Baltimore lore as Edgar Allan Poe, John Waters, the Inner Harbor, and Bert Jones.

"Look, man," says Lewis. "None of that means anything to me right now. As far as I'm concerned, the 'House of Usher' is nothing more than an episode of 'MTV Cribs.' If you want to quoth a Raven, talk to me. Poe was a junkie who knew nothing about football. And I'm talking about the Teletubbie, not the writer."

With such a physical contest on tap, you can count on several analysts citing the key to victory as the team best able to "impose their will" upon the other. And look. The NFL Network's Brian Baldinger just said it. Of course, he was talking to his makeup artist at the time, but to each his own. Anyway, there will be big hits, a lot of trash talking, and and endless supply of egotistical boasts. But Ray Lewis isn't the only player in this game. Referee Ed Hochuli stops the game on cuts with 2:01 remaining in the fourth quarter, and Tennessee wins 19-17 via TKO.

Chicago @ Detroit (+3)

Upon Matt Millen's firing last week as president of the Detroit organization, Lions employees observed a brief moment of silence, followed by a few grunts, then a collective flush of all toilets in the Ford Field compound. And with that, Millen's tenure in Detroit ended, mercifully, as Millen thumbed a ride out of 'No Mo'-town while tearfully acknowledging the standing 'go'-vation he received from the city's 1,000,000 residents.

"I pains me to see a good man go," says Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli. "Show me a good man and I'll show you pain. I met with the Ford family, and they assured me my job was safe, even though Millen hired me, and were kind enough to explain domino theory to me. Heck, I don't even play dominos."

The Bears used a goal line stand to preserve a 24-20 win over Philadelphia, stuffing the Eagles from the one-yard line to deny the Eagles and finally hold on to a fourth quarter lead. They'll look to pin a loss on the new Millen-less regime in Detroit.

"I think I speak for the other 31 teams in the league when I say it's sad to see Millen go," says Brian Urlacher, who walks with a condition known as 'Old Spice Swagger,' a painful affliction resulting from an intimate relationship with Paris Hilton. "The job of a general manager is to make a team better. I'd say Millen's succeeded in that respect, because when he was with the Lions, he made all the other teams better."

These days, in takes less than a whip and a stool to tame the Lions. In fact, I bet two effeminate, sequin-wearing Las Vegas pansy showmen could do it. But will the Lions, fresh off a bye week and free of the Millen burden, be eager to prove that their season can be turned around? Jon Kitna thinks so, and he's guaranteeing a Detroit win on Sunday.

"I guarantee the Red Wings will beat Buffalo in their preseason finale," says Kitna.

Detroit races to a 14-0 lead and hold on to win, 26-24.

Atlanta @ Green Bay

Was Brett Favre's 6-touchdown day last Sunday a not-so-subtle message to the Packers that, maybe, just maybe, Favre is just a bit more of a quarterback than Aaron Rodgers? While Rodgers was tossing 3 interceptions and suffering a sprained shoulder in the Pack's 30-21 loss in Tampa, Favre was setting a personal and a Jets records in the Meadowlands.

"I'm glad to hear that Rodgers' shoulder is just sprained," says Favre. "I know the Packers are already dealing with a case of 'separation anxiety,' and a separated shoulder would have just compounded that issue. Were I still in Green Bay, you can best believe there'd be no doubts that I was starting. Do you know what I call a 'sprained shoulder?' A 'throwing arm.'"

"Rodgers has no concept of a 258-game consecutive starts streak. And he really has no idea of Packers history, or Milwaukee professional sports, in general. Heck, he thinks 'Rollie Fingers' is coin-operated, cheap hotel massage device."

The last time the Falcons played in Green Bay, Michael Vick led Atlanta to a 27-7 playoff upset in 2003, the Packers' first playoff loss ever on Lambeau Field soil. This time, it's up to rookie Matt Ryan to lead the Falcons to the upset.

"That game has nothing to do with our upcoming visit to Green Bay," says Ryan. "I say, 'Let sleeping dogs lie.' That was a great day for Vick, and luckily he's got plenty of time to reflect on that glorious day. Me? I'm preparing myself for whatever the Packers bring. I'm expecting a lot of disguised coverages, and blind-side blitzes. Like an incarcerated Vick, I'll be warily looking over my shoulder. Luckily for me, it won't be in a shower at a correctional facility."

Packers win, 29-19.

Seattle @ NY Giants (-9½)

Everybody knows a Chunky Soup endorsement deal is for amateurs. Just ask Matt Hasselbeck. No longer pushing soup cans for Campbell's, Hasselbeck has recently hit the big-time, becoming a paid endorser for travel broker Expedia. Not quite a gig fit for a Manning brother, but for Hasselbeck's small-time endeavors, the Expedia deal serves him well.

"Hey, I Sea-'hawk'-ed soup for long enough," says Hasselbeck. "It was a good situation for me at the time, but I had to say 'bye' when they told me I'd have to share billing with Edna McNabb. Now, it's time for me to spread my wings in the endorsement field and hopefully, one day, reach the level of exposure enjoyed by the Mannings. Honestly, I don't see what the Manning fellows have that I don't, besides Super Bowl rings and hair."

The Giants will be without wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who was suspended for one game for missing a team meeting, a direct violation of Tom Coughlin's team rules. Burress claimed the absence was for a "personal" issue. Whether or not that was related to the two restraining orders filed against Burress by his wife this summer, no one knows for sure.

"Look, if Plaxico really needed to go harass someone," says Tom Coughlin, "then that's not really a legitimate 'personal issue.' Maybe it is in Cincinnati, but not here. There will be disagreements in football as well as family life. I'm guessing this is a 'who da baby daddy?' issue, which I believe is explained in our handbook as an 'illegitimate' personal issue."

Giants win, 27-13.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-6)

After Sunday night's 24-20 loss in Chicago, the Eagles fell to 2-2, good for last place in the NFC East, but adjusted for the suckiness of the rest of the NFC Conference, that translates into the division lead in any of the other three divisions. In fact, it's almost good enough to clinch the NFC West four weeks into the season. With the red-hot Redskins coming to town, the Eagles desperately need a win to avoid any more of a division deficit, which would include an 0-2 division hole should they lose to the 'Skins.

"With our two losses coming on the road," says Donovan McNabb, "it will be nice to play at home, where we're 2-0 this year, and 2-0 against the spread, and 2-0 in games in which I did not vomit on the field. I'm not one to regurgitate endless statistics, so I won't bore you with details. We're ready, the city is ready, and the stadium is ready. All hot dogs resembling bombs have been detonated, and the Philly Phanatic is on the Lincoln Financial Field terrorist watch list."

After many questioned Jim Zorn's coaching ability after their season-opening loss to the Giants, Washington has won three in a row, and now, no one's questioning Zorn's coaching acumen. It's given the first-year head coach a sense of pride, and he now wakes up every morning with a powerful sense of accomplishment.

"Yeah, I wake up every morning with 'Zorning' wood," says Zorn. "From there, it's 'rise and shine.' Everything's looking 'up' for me. Even Super Bowl XLIII's halftime entertainment. Then, Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band will take the stage. If we make it to the big game, you can best believe the Boss will sing his modified classic staple 'Zorn in the USA.' I've got my Redskins cap in the back pocket of my blue jeans right now."

McNabb out-duels Jason Campbell, and Andy Reid gets jiggy with it. Philadelphia wins, 27-24.

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3)

Two weeks after facing then winless division foe Jacksonville, the Colts get another shot at another AFC South team in search of a victory. This time, it's the Houston Texans, who finally get a home game after Hurricane Ike postponed their Week 2 home date. The Texans, particularly quarterback Matt Schaub, made great strides last week in nearly upsetting Jacksonville. With the Colts still suffering injury issues, and the Texans improving, with a much-awaited home game, are the Colts ripe for the picking?

"Ripe for the picking?" says Manning. "Metaphorically speaking, I could answer that question with a nifty little anecdote about Johnny Appleseed, or I could audible into a story about a three-year-old mining for gold up his left nostril. Look, it's no time to panic. Show me Tom Brady on a snowy afternoon in January in Foxboro, then I'll panic."

"If it were time to panic, we surely wouldn't be able to tell by the tone of Tony Dungy's voice. That man reads the riot act in the same voice with which he reads scripture, sometimes with even fewer curse words. He does recite a smooth 23rd Psalms, though. For now, we just have to keep this ship afloat while we get healthy, and for the guys having surgery, all I can do is lend them my support. If that involves hovering over the operating table chanting 'Cut that meat! Cut that meat!', then so be it."

The Colts are coming off their bye week, and, statistically speaking, they've won some and lost some after their bye weeks. You can't argue with statistics, can you? Manning hits Reggie Wayne for two scores, and the Colts defense registers a solid outing. Colts win, 30-23.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-10)

It was certainly a touching gesture when Steve Smith, after scoring on a 56-yard touchdown pass in Carolina's 24-9 win over Atlanta, sprinted to the sidelines and presented the ball to Ken Lucas, whom Smith had decked during a preseason practice earlier in the year. Lucas graciously accepted.

"Steve's outbursts have given him a bum rap," says Jake Delhomme. "Often, his kindness is overlooked. In fact, he's quite likely to do something that we'd all consider 'touching.' The question is, though, how hard is he going to 'touch' you. Ken was really moved by Steve's gesture. Steve's got a special way about him that almost always brings tears to Ken's eyes."

The Chiefs and Herman Edwards won for the first time, manhandling the Broncos 33-19 with a defense that stifled Denver's big-play offense and held strong in the red zone. They'll need a similar effort against Carolina and Smith's big play capabilities.

"I understand the Panthers have an issue with penalties," says Edwards. "What team hasn't said that after a game refereed by Ed Hochuli? That roughing the passer call against Julius Peppers was just awful. I'm not sure how that call benefitted the Denver Broncos, but it had to have somehow. Hochuli's days as the most respected referee in the NFL may be nearing the end, but he still is and forever will be a force to be reckoned with on the 'over 50' arm-wrestling circuit."

"As for the Panthers, we'll definitely try to bait them into false start penalties. It's not hard at all. Rumor has it that on team picture day, it took the photographer two hours to get a single shot of the offensive line. It seems the Carolina offensive line had trouble heeding the photographers pleas to 'hold still.'"

The Chiefs have the athletes at the skill positions to challenge the Carolina defense. Damon Huard will have to get the ball to Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe early to keep the Panther safeties clear of Larry Johnson's runs. But Carolina has the true difference-maker in Smith. Smith scores on a 24-yard pass from Jake Delhomme in the third quarter, then races to the sidelines and proposes to Lucas. Carolina wins, 24-17.

San Diego @ Miami (+7)

With a win against the Chargers, Miami can complete the sweep of finalists from the AFC championship of last year, having already dismissed the Patriots two weeks ago. Head coach Tony Sparano won his first game as an NFL head coach in spectacular fashion, whipping the Pats 38-13 with several ingenious utilizations of the "single wing" formation, a ploy thought by most to be ancient and useless in today's game.

"I'll tell you what," says Sparano, who likes to compliment his players with shouts of 'Good, fella.' "The single-wing may be dated, but it's reliable, and it works every time. Just like an ice-pick to the temple. Sure, there were some doubts from the players about running the single wing. Probably the most telling comment came from Ricky Williams, who, in what had to be a first, asked me what I was smoking?"

The Chargers have won two straight after digging themselves an 0-2 hole to start the season. Last week, San Diego overcame a 15-0 deficit and scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Raiders in the Black Hole.

"Most importantly," says Norv Turner, "we're 2-1 in games not refereed by Ed Hochuli. I see he was at it again in Carolina, blowing another call. This time, it cost the Panthers seven points. You know, I haven't seen this kind of robbery from a character in black and white stripes since the Hamburgler wiped out the entire supply of McDonald's hamburgers back in 1996."

What's the secret to defending the single wing? Double penetration, of course. The Chargers load up the box when Ronnie Brown is alone in the backfield, forcing him to audible to another play. Brown burns three timeouts on the Fins first possession, and Sparano is forced to play a quarterback. Antonio Cromartie returns a fumble 167 yards, officially only 35, and the Chargers win, 26-20.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3½)

The Broncos' mile-high expectations took an elevated tumble last week, as Denver fell for the first time, losing to the Chiefs 33-19. In that game, Denver was exposed as a team with one of the weakest defenses in the league, surrendering 29 points a game. Up next for the Broncos are the Bucs, with former Bronco Brian Griese at quarterback, and head coach John Gruden, who made several visits to Invesco Field while coaching the Raiders.

"The air up there will leave you gasping for breath," says Gruden. "No, it's not the altitude; it's the smell of Mike Shanahan's flesh cooking to medium-well. Yikes! Shanny could be the leader of his own one-man traveling percussion ensemble called the 'Orange Man Group.' A few moderately severe bruises and Shanahan would naturally represent the colors of the Broncos."

"In all seriousness, our fortunes rest on getting pressure on Jay Cutler, the diabetic poster boy we like to call the 'Insulin Chump.' If we give him all day to throw, we're in trouble. And if the ball falls out of his hand and we recover it, we're in even more trouble."

At kickoff, Gruden is stunned when he scans the crowd at Invesco and, in addition to the usual Cutler, Champ Bailey, and Brandon Marshall jerseys, he sees the number of those jerseys dwarfed by the thousands of fans donning Ed Hochuli No. 85 referee shirts.

"Something is rotten in Denver," laments Gruden.

Cutler throws for two scores, Shanahan gloats, and Gruden sneers. Denver wins, 27-21.

Buffalo @ Arizona (Pick)

The undefeated Bills are 4-0 and leading the AFC East as they prepare to head west to face the Cardinals. Possibly the biggest surprise of the young season, the Bills could head into their bye week at 5-0 with a win against the Cardinals, who have lost two straight.

"We really burst onto the scene," says quarterback Trent Edwards, "and surprised everyone. Kind of like O.J. Simpson at a casino memorabilia show. Exactly what was the Juice trying to retrieve? Dignity? Respect? A free coupon to the casino buffet? Shouldn't the NFL's personal conduct policy apply to former players, as well? I think it would be just dandy if the Juice somehow expired in a horrible accident triggered by a Leslie Nielsen pratfall."

The Cardinals are reeling after two straight losses, the latest a 56-35 drubbing by the Jets in the Meadowlands. After a promising 2-0 start, Arizona has tumbled back to mediocrity, with the undefeated Bills next on the docket.

"Of course, we didn't think we'd go the entire season without mentioning the 'L' word," says Kurt Warner. "Heck, Matt Leinart can't go two hours without mentioning the 'L' word, especially when they're double-stacked in the hot tub making out. I'm referring to lesbians, the hot ones, of course. Matt's made an open offer to Sarah Palin to come try and 'pray away the gay' out of them. I think it's preposterous, but whatever it takes to get Matt into church, I'm all for it."

Warner had seven turnovers, all by himself, last week against the Jets. The Bills won't even need half that many. Buffalo wins, 30-24.

New England @ San Francisco (+3)

With a bye week under their belts, is there any reason to think New England won't be well-prepared for the 49ers, with thoughts of the Pats 38-13 loss to Miami in Week 3 erased from their memories? Bill Belichick has had a full two weeks to come to terms with being outsmarted by Tony Sparano, and Belichick has even implemented a few plays utilizing the "single wing" formation that Miami used to beat the Pats.

"I'm man enough to say I was out-coached," says Belichick. "But only man enough to say it, and not to really believe it. Actually, we had a breakdown in our scouting procedures. I was provided with no video footage of the Dolphins practicing the single wing. However, I had hours upon hours of video showing Sparano bribing city officials, whacking snitches, and eating pasta. Intriguing, but not the work of a true auteur, like Matt Walsh."

It's an emotional day in San Francisco, as the 49ers retire the No. 8 jersey of quarterback Steve Young in a ceremony attended by several former 49er players and San Fran dignitaries. Conspicuously absent, though, is 49er great Joe Montana, who refuses to attend due to a dispute over a $25,000 appearance fee, which 49ers officials refused to pay, and an unreasonably demanding rider, in which Montana requested caviar, French bottled water, chateaubriand, an 8x10 glossy of Dwight Clark, and the preserved tip of Ronnie Lott's amputated pinky finger. New England wins, 24-17.

Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17½)

Two of the most perplexing wide receivers in the NFL, Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens, will be on display as the Cowboys look to bounce back from last week's 26-24 loss to the Redskins. Owens had the gall to say he wasn't "involved," even though Tony Romo threw 17 of his 47 passes in T.O.'s direction, many of which were dropped.

"Hey, I can understand what T.O.'s saying," says Romo. "Shoot, I wish he'd 'catch' more balls also. I hope he realizes that we can't run this offense through him, be we can ruin this offense through him, by simply adding an 'I' to 'run,' a letter with which T.O. is highly familiar. T.O. still believes that there is an 'I' in 'team' despite all the cliché-spouting buffoons who say otherwise. I know this: there is a 'loser' in 'Terrell Owens,' and if he doesn't straighten up, he'll soon find Jessica Simpson wearing a pink-numbered Owens jersey."

For the 0-4 Bengals, a stunning win in Dallas would certainly be a positive in what has been a season of negatives so far. An upset is unlikely, but that doesn't stop the Bengals from going all out. Chris Henry is back on the roster after serving his four-game suspension, and Cincy signed former Chicago running back Cedric Benson to shore up their running game.

"Both of those guys are under strict orders not to share rides, guns, or bottles," says Marvin Lewis.

Dallas, still stinging from the Washington defeat, and cheered on by their newest fan, Clay Aiken, who finally admitted that he's 'always liked the 'Boys,' jump on the Bengals quickly, as Marion Barber pounds it in from the one on the Cowboys' first drive. Owens is split wide on the extra point, as Wade Phillips and Jerry Jones share a chuckle about getting Owens "more involved." Dallas wins, 34-21.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-3)

What did Ben Roethlisberger says to his teammates at halftime, spurring them to a 23-20 overtime win over the Ravens last Monday?

"I'd been sacked so many times in the first half," says Roethlisberger, "I figured if my ears were gonna be ringing, their's should be, too. Trust me, when they arrived in the locker room, I didn't give them an 'Immaculate Reception.' It was a fairly mean-spirited and expletive-filled reception, Bobby Knight-like, if you will, with a few chair tosses and head butts. I even assaulted a Puerto Rican cop who was there providing security."

Like the Steelers, the Jags used the right leg of their kicker to win in overtime last week. Kicker Josh Scobee, for the second week in a row, kicked the game-winning field goal. Head coach Jack Del Rio, known in the Jacksonville area swingers community as "Rio Grande," knows the Sunday night game will likely be decided by a late field goal.

"Hey, the game has evolved," says Del Rio. "When I played high school football, every team had their goofiest offensive lineman kicking off, usually resulting in a 20-yard floater with more action than a Tim Wakefield knuckleball. Now, you've got 180-pound choir boys booming 50-yard field goals with room to spare. Josh Scobee can't weigh more than 185 soaking wet, and 190 with the ice water in his veins, which luckily isn't a violation of NFL drug policy. Scobee's got a drop-dead leg, and a pretty smile to boot. I think we'll see a lot of leg Sunday night, especially at the juice bar."

The Steelers lost four starters in their Monday night game against Baltimore. That physical ramifications of that game will still be taking their toll. Jacksonville wins, 22-17.

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3)

Off to a 1-3 start, the Vikings have been doing very little raiding and pillaging, averaging only 18 points per game. Four turnovers last week doomed them in Tennessee, and the Vikes, pegged by many as dark horse Super Bowl contenders in the preseason, now will have to struggle to go 8-8.

"I think Leif Erikson, probably the most famous Viking, would be disappointed," says Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. "Not in our performance so far, but because he and his fellow Vikings never partied on a boat like the football Vikings are known to do. But, like those Nordic fellows after which we were nicknamed, if you put a football Viking on a boat, he's bound to get wind in his sail."

"All sexual references aside, this is another 'must-win' game for us, and so far this year, we're 1-2 in those games. 1-3 is nothing to worry about, especially when the division leaders stand at 2-2. We've got to go into New Orleans with an attitude, and run the ball like our season depended on it, which it does."

And run the ball you can against the Saints. The New Orleans defense gives up 5.2 yards per rush, nearly the worst in the league.

"That's unacceptable," says Sean Payton. "Anytime your defensive yards per rush average is higher than the age of a gold medal-winning Chinese gymnast, then you've got problems. I think born-on-the-bayou rock god John Fogerty said it best when he sang, 'And I wonder, still I wonder, who'll stop the run?' In our case, I think the best defense is a good offense."

The Vikes have to have this one, and I think this is the game in which Peterson finally explodes. Hopefully, not literally.

Minnesota wins, 30-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:49 AM | Comments (1)

For the Love of God, Free Raider Nation!

It's really easy to pile on Al Davis right now. I'm fighting the urge to go down that route myself. Let's not absolve everyone else of blame here.

If you take a head coaching job under Al Davis, you know what the situation is going to be. You coach the players on the field. If the players fail, you'll ultimately get fired, but you take the experience and move on.

You're not going to pick the players. You're not going to pick all of the coaches. You're not going to have complete say on anything.

Someone like Lane Kiffin takes this job to prepare himself for future employment. There's very little chance of success, but you know that going in.

To pretend Kiffin is 100% clean here is naïve.

Kiffin either was or wasn't asked to resign over the offseason. He either did or didn't refused, depending on whether or not you believe he was ever asked.

Since he was or wasn't asked to resign, while I have no doubt that he's been doing his best on the field to coach the team he was given, he has taken every chance to throw daggers at his owner.

He's questioned the talent level of his team publicly. He's openly mocked the front office. He's questioned his own coaching staff. From a PR standpoint, he's been a nightmare.

Given that a decent chunk of the job of a head coach is to be the face and voice of an organization, Kiffin has generally been a terrible employee since before the draft.

So, Kiffin deserved to be fired. He shares some of the blame.

But the Raiders situation, every problem they've faced since they lost the Super Bowl back in 2002, can be traced back to an erratic, and perhaps completely insane owner.

Certainly an out-of-touch owner, anyway.

Al Davis took a team that needed rebuilding and spent like it was a team ready to compete for a Super Bowl. He not only spent a ridiculous $70 million on DeAngelo Hall, but gave up a high 2008 draft pick (second-rounder) and an additional 2009 draft pick.

Gibril Wilson is a great player, but another $39 million for him? $40 million in guaranteed money to fix a secondary that, if you stack it up against the problems the Raiders had on offense last season, really shouldn't have been a priority?

Put it this way: if you're a bad team, and the 2007 Raiders were a bad team, you need to build through the draft. Because of Al Davis' questionable moves, they went into the 2008 draft with only five picks.

And only one pick in the first three rounds!

Al Davis is a victim of his own ego. He believes in the players he picks. He believes in them to a fault. He refuses to admit that he's wrong on players. He refuses to admit that someone else would do a better job building his team. He refuses to relinquish control, even though his judgment has been significantly more and more questionable as the years have gone by.

He goes through coaches like they're going out of style because he believes he's giving them championship talent. To admit he's giving them four-win talent would be admitting that the players he hand-picked aren't good enough. So when the team wins four games, he fires the coach.

When the next coach only wins four games, he fires him.

If only he could find a good head coach, right?

Of course, that in and of itself is part of the problem. No qualified head coach would work for Al Davis. Under any circumstances.

There are only two types of coaches who will take the Oakland job.

1) The Lane Kiffins of the world, who are vastly under-qualified and need the experience on their resume. They take the job because they nobody else thinks they're ready and they need the experience.

2) The Norv Turners of the world, who have been fired elsewhere and have no other options. They take the job so they can help rebuild their reputation and land a better job elsewhere.

The Oakland job is a stepping stone to another job. That's all. As long as you're not already an established head coach, there's no real downside. Nobody expects you to win. Regardless of how bad you do, it's still experience.

And if you happen to win, even a small amount of games, you get all the credit.

The Raiders have some of the best fans in the world. I've given them a ton of crap in the past, because, frankly, they entertain me. But they're solidly behind their team. You won't ever find that stadium empty, no matter how bad the product Al Davis presents them gets.

Raider Nation deserves better. Raider Nation deserves a team without Al Davis.

Hopefully, Al Davis will learn that if he wants to "Just Win, Baby," he needs to just retire, baby.

The Raiders will be a pathetic, laughingstock of a franchise until that day comes. The Raiders need to find Al Davis' replacement, and they need to do it before he makes things so bad that Raider Nation gives up on their team.

Just win, as long as we do it Al's way, baby!

It's time to free Raider Nation from the incompetence of Al Davis' leadership. It's time to free them from two- and four-win seasons. It's time to free them from rooting for the worst run franchise in professional sports.

For the love of God, free Raider Nation!

I guess I did a pretty poor job not piling on Al Davis, eh?

Sean Crowe is a senior writer for Bleacher Report and writes a column for Sports Central every other Thursday. You can read more articles by Sean Crowe on his blog.

Posted by Sean Crowe at 11:08 AM | Comments (0)

October 1, 2008

Ranking College Football Conferences

I've never been a huge fan of the Top 25 rankings in college football. I guess there are few other ways to go about ranking teams, many of which will never play each other in a given year, other than random subjective voting.

The main reason I tend to dislike Top 25 rankings is because of how frequently they change. A team wins three games and they are No. 10. Then they lose and they're No. 21. Then they lose again and they get no votes whatsoever. Then they win five straight and they're back in at No. 24. There are too few games in the college football season for a subjective ranking system to matter all too much. That being said, it's still one of the best tools we currently have.

There are currently six conferences whose champion wins an automatic BCS bowl game bid. They are the Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC, and ACC. Many people have wondered if other conferences (mainly the Mountain West and the WAC) deserved to be among those six with automatic bids. And there are some (myself included) who think the idea of an automatic bid is nonsense. The conferences are too fickle to say these six deserve bids from now unto eternity and the other five Division IA conferences do not.

For some evidence as to why the six conferences with automatic bids is a stupid idea, let's look at each conference and how they're fairing currently in the AP Top 25. I've graded them based on how many teams are in the Top 25 and how high they are ranked. No. 1 got 25 points, 2 got 24, and so on.

11. Sun Belt — 0 in AP Top 25; 0 points

The Sun Belt Conference is pretty worthless. Each team already has at least two losses and no team received any votes whatsoever this week for the AP top 25.

10. Conference USA — 0 in AP Top 25; 0 points

Conference USA is not completely worthless. East Carolina was in the ranks until this week and Tulsa is still undefeated and getting a decent amount of votes. If Tulsa wants some real respect, though, they'll have to win at Arkansas on November 1 (and pretty much every other game they play.)

9. Mid-American — 0 in AP Top 25; 0 points

Mid-American is slightly better than Conference USA because Ball State received more votes this week than Tulsa.

8. ACC — 2 in AP Top 25; 7 points

The ACC is by far the biggest disappointment thus far. The ACC used to be a major contender with Florida State and Miami contending for the national championship annually it seemed, but both programs have fallen off the map. The only teams in the ACC that are in the Top 25 currently are Virginia Tech (20) and Wake Forest (25). Maryland is knocking on the door and Clemson was just knocked out, but this conference already has zero teams that are undefeated. It looks grim for the ACC.

7. WAC — 2 in AP Top 25; 13 points

The WAC has been one of the most exciting conferences to watch in the past couple years. With Hawaii, Boise State, and Fresno State all putting up a fight against every non-conference opponent they've faced in the past few years (well, Hawaii no longer) this conference is very tough and may continue to have at-large bids in the BCS.

6. Big East — 2 in AP Top 25; 18 points

The Big East is another large disappointment. Connecticut and South Florida are making a stand, but it seems like everybody simply expects them to fall flat on their faces and I don't blame them.

5. Pac-10 — 2 in AP Top 25; 20 points

The Pac-10 is a real surprise to me. Yes, USC lost to Oregon St. and that was pathetic, but the only other team cracking the Top 25 is Oregon at 23 and the reality is nobody else is really even close. UCLA is the biggest disappointment in this conference thus far. They beat the equally disappointing Tennessee in their first game, then got absolutely slaughtered by BYU, 59-0. I'm beginning to expect the same from other teams in this conference.

4. Mountain West — 2 in AP Top 25; 29 points

Why is the Mountain West ranked so high? BYU and Utah have been phenomenal. The showdown on November 22 at Utah is going to be a good one. It's very possible those two teams could head into that game undefeated. If that were the case, the winner would undoubtedly be a BCS at-large bid.

3. Big 10 — 3 in AP Top 25; 40 points

Many analysts have been down on the Big 10 for needing to change their style of play and simply not competing with the other major conferences, but at least currently, they seem to be sitting pretty thus far in 2008. Penn State looks tough, Ohio State and Wisconsin are still in the hunt, Michigan State is improving, and even Northwestern and Minnesota don't look too bad. It seems that currently the Big 10 has little to be ashamed of in the college football world.

2. SEC — 6 in AP Top 25; 96 points

I honestly expected the SEC to be number one, but this conference is just going to beat each other up a great deal. Even so, Florida should not lose to Ole Miss. And Georgia just did not look good against Alabama. If a team can escape this incredibly difficult conference with one loss, they deserve a shot at the title.

1. Big 12 — 6 in AP Top 25; 102 points

The Big 12, who would have thought? When you have four of the top seven teams, I guess it shouldn't be a surprise, but I think that is partially due to that fact that there has not been one conference game played in the entirety of the Big 12. Once the conference schedule gets going (this week) this list will change quickly, I believe to putting the SEC back on top. The Big 12 is another conference that seems so stacked, it'd be hard to argue that a team escaping this conference with one loss didn't deserve a national title bid.

So there you have it. It doesn't measure everything about a conference's strengths from top to bottom, but it gives you some idea of how ridiculous the idea of having six conferences with automatic BCS bids truly is. If we're going to use computers to figure out which team is the best, let's use computers. If we're going to be subjective, let's be subjective. We shouldn't be trying to do both. It isn't working.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:09 AM | Comments (2)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 29

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson held off a kamikaze pass attempt by Carl Edwards on the final lap to win the Camping World RV 400 at Kansas Motor Speedway. Johnson started from the pole, qualifying second, but assuming the top spot on the grid when Juan Montoya's pole-winning speed was disallowed because of a rules infraction. Johnson lead a race-high 131 laps, and those bonus points helped give him a 10-point lead in the points over Edwards.

"Finding out we won the pole was a great start to the week," says Johnson. "Chad Knaus will second me on this, but it's not often you 'benefit' from a rules violation. I'm not sure what Montoya had in his car, but NASCAR officials were obviously profiling when they chose to search it. Pity that poor Colombian. He can't pass inspection, nor customs."

2. Carl Edwards — After losing his lead in the pits to Jimmie Johnson on lap 220, Edwards made a daring attempt on the final lap to pass Johnson. Edwards drove deep into turn three, flying underneath Johnson before slamming the wall as Johnson drove back by him for the win. Edwards now trails Johnson by 10 points after arriving in Kansas with a 10-point lead.

"Thanks goodness that wall was there," says Edwards. "Otherwise, I might not have been in Kansas anymore. Sure, it was a gutsy move. A move like that takes courage and heart, but does not require a bit of brains to attempt."

3. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished third in Kansas, unable to seriously challenge for the win, but more than capable of maintaining position for what four weeks ago seemed like an unlikely chance at the Cup title. Biffle now trails points leader Jimmie Johnson by 30 points.

"In the final 10 races," says Biffle, "it's all about win, place, or show. This isn't a horse race, although Kyle Busch's opinion of Carl Edwards' teeth would indicate otherwise. In the first 26, it's all about sandbagging. Obviously, I spent the first 26 races laying low in the bushes, then I popped up out of nowhere like a NASCAR drug-testing policy."

4. Kevin Harvick — For the ninth consecutive race, Harvick finished in the top 10, bringing home a sixth in the Camping World RV 400. Still, with Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, and Greg Biffle besting his result, Harvick was unable to gain ground on the Chase leaders. He is currently 136 out of first.

"I guess they don't call it the 'Chase' for nothing," says Harvick. "Johnson, Edwards, and Biffle are leading; we're chasing. Obviously, we'll need some bad luck to befall those three at Talladega, and beyond. A massive pileup in Alabama involving those three would certainly help, but if Johnson, Edwards, and Biffle could somehow get stuck with an engine from Kyle Busch's shop, that would be the ideal situation."

5. Jeff Gordon — In a new twist, Gordon battled not an ill-handling car, but illness itself as an unspecified ailment made for one of Gordon's most grueling races. Showing the heart of a champion, Gordon persevered and fought his way to a fourth in Kansas. He made the biggest jump in the points among Chase drivers, advancing two places to sixth, where he is 143 out of first.

"I'm not sure what it was that made me sick," says Gordon. "Usually, I don't feel ill until I actually get into the car and find it undrivable."

6. Jeff Burton — Burton finished seventh in Kansas, one spot behind Richard Childress teammate Kevin Harvick, as the RCR squad continued to produce solid results. Burton held on to the fourth spot in the point standings, 121 out of first.

"Once again, RCR put cars in the top 10," says Burton, "just as we did last week. Sounds like a case of déjà vu, or maybe that's just because last week's race in Dover and this week's in Kansas were named the exact same thing, the Camping World RV 400."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth recovered from a lug nut problem and a spin on the track to post his second consecutive top-five finish, scoring a fifth in Kansas. He moved up one spot in the points to ninth, and is 192 out of first.

"As a teammate of two of the top-three Chasers," says Kenseth, "I've got a feeling I'll have an impact on the outcome at Talladega, a track in which teamwork plays an important role. Faced with the choice of helping Greg Biffle or Carl Edwards, I guess I'd have to choose Edwards. It's not exactly the kind of 'push' I've always wanted to give him, but until I find him teetering on a 10th-story ledge, it will have to do."

8. Clint Bowyer — After being black flagged at the start for passing before the start/finish line, Bowyer started in a hole. Later, he was nabbed speeding on his pit exit and penalized again. Despite his troubles, Bowyer, in the Jack Daniels Chevrolet, managed a respectable finish of 12th, which left him seventh in the points, 164 out of the lead.

"It's true what they say," says Bowyer. "Once you go 'black,' you can never go back ... to the front, that is."

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 13th in Kansas, another disappointing result in the Chase for the driver of the No. 88 National Guard/Amp Chevrolet. After a strong start in New Hampshire, Earnhardt has finished outside the top 10 in his last two races, leaving him 190 points off the lead in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"Sure, the results haven't been there," says Earnhardt, "but the chatter on the team radio has been filth-free, and even jovial at times. I guess I have to thank Rick Hendrick for monitoring my language over the radio. Thanks to his involvement, we've cut out nearly all four-letter words. Unfortunately, there's two four-letter words that still remain — 'lose' and 'Eury.'"

10. Tony Stewart — Stewart struggled mightily in Kansas, qualifying 41st on Friday, then colliding with Brian Vickers in Sunday's race, a spin which sent him sliding through the infield grass. With damage to his splitter, Stewart finished 40th and dropped four places in the point standings. Now, Joe Gibbs Racing drivers occupy the bottom three positions in the standing, with Stewart 11th, 255 out of first.

"Wow, we're 10, 11, 12?" says Stewart. "Talk about 'running a train.' As my interview in Rolling Stone indicated, that's not the kind of train I'm interested in running."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:01 AM | Comments (0)