I haven't laid down some picks in a long time (and I was 1-5 last week with my bets, so buyer beware), but before I get to them, I wanted to touch on the Jake Locker situation.
Don't expect a break from the chorus here. It was a terrible call, but the refs are there to enforce the rules, and I will not, like so many others will, criticize a ref for making a rulebook call. There are no penalties that are specific to certain time frames within a game, so you'll never hear me complain, as so many others do, that refs are not being selective enough with their penalties.
But I will rail against the rule itself. This cracking down on celebrations bit is a real stinker.
This seems like yet another rule that underlines our vague contempt for athletes. Let's say I am the CEO of a large bank, and I got into an acquisition war with a competitor over who would acquire a third, struggling firm.
So we win out and get the company. And at the press conference where we announce the acquisition, I yell, dance, jump up and down, and just wildly celebrate the announcement ... but in so doing, I do not taunt our defeated competitor, and in fact make no mention of them.
Would I be fined by the SEC? Would the business world close ranks against me? Indeed, would there be any negative repercussions? More likely, I would instead become a white-collar folk hero. Editorials would be written about my "fire" and how I'm a shot in the arm to the industry. But the athlete, whom we ask to have a burning passion and pride for the game and never, how dare he ever show it. Why?
I understand not taunting. I understand sportsmanship. I understand the concept of not rubbing your opponents noses in it.
But I promise you that not a single BYU player felt any worse about giving up the ostensible tying touchdown than he would have if Locker has simply handed the ball back to the referee (I make this point because I anticipate being told that big celebrations are taunting in and of itself, which is hogwash).
Bad example for the kids in the crowd? Why? What's wrong with jumping up and down? What's wrong with screaming in celebration (outside of a funeral or library)? Nothing, that's what. There is no special virtue in being stoic in the face of good fortune, only adversity.
Don't say it's about humility, either, unless you are prepared to go many steps further and say that fans also should not celebrate similarly. So many of us live and die with our teams, devote so much of our free time to them, and guys like Locker therefore become a disproportionally big part of our lives (if you are a hardcore Husky fan, that is). You celebrate wilder than that, and you probably taunt exponentially more, both in volume and intensity, than we allow our athletes, particularly if we are protected by the anonymity cloak of the Internet. So no humility/good sportsmanship arguments for me, not for thee arguments please.
Onto the picks...
Two college football lines look so ridiculously, unbelievably good that I think it's a trap. Cal looked impressive opening Week 1 beating Michigan State, and then destroyed Washington State, 66-3. Maryland struggled to beat a Division 1-AA team at home and then lost to Middle Tennessee State by double digits on the road.
So doesn't it seem likely that Cal just might beat Maryland by more than 14 points, which is where the line is, and just four more than the actual margin of defeat MTSU laid on the Terps?
Yes, Cal is on the road, and going across the country. Pac-10 teams seem to be able to do that pretty easily, though (USC winning big at Virginia, Oregon winning big at Mississippi State a few years ago, just right off the top of my head).
Speaking of Washington State, they were on the wrong end of that 66-3 score. That was fresh off a blowout loss to Oklahoma State, both at home. They travel to Baylor, who also lost at home to Wake Forest, but at least blew out the 1-AA opponent they played the next week.
So in this corner, on the road, a team with two home blowout losses against good teams. In this corner, at home, is a team also with two home games under their belt: a blowout loss to a good team, and a blowout win over a cupcake. Who should be favored? Las Vegas thinks the road team who has shown nothing so far, for some reason. The Cougars are favored by one. Take Baylor.
Two teams that have looked particularly good in the opening two weeks are playing teams who have looked particularly bad in the opening two weeks, and aren't laying enough points. Take Texas at -23 over Arkansas and Penn State -26 at Syracuse.
Finally, an NFL line.
I'm really surprised to see a big road favorite anywhere this early in the year, especially when it doesn't involve the Patriots and an uninjured Tom Brady. But the Giants are nine-point faves at St. Louis.
Yes, the Rams looked terrible in Week 1. But we know they aren't going to lose every game 38-3. They have weapons, were probably pretty embarrassed by the loss, and should bounce back, and have a chance to do it in their friendly home confines.
The Giants didn't look that great against Redskins, and as bad as the 'Skins were, the Giants never put the game away. I am absolutely loving the Rams as nine-point underdogs, even as a moneyline pick.
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