2008 Fantasy Football Preview: K/Defense

Also see: 2008 Fantasy Football Preview:
QB/RB | WR/TE

This third and final breakdown will give you all the information you need to select the oft-overlooked players at the kicker and defensive positions. In this particular missive, I will list for you those individual defenders that you need to solidify your championship roster should your league utilize individual defensive players over the more popular team defensive units. I have included the top 10 team defense/special team units, as well, in an effort to remain as thorough as possible. However, much of the supporting text referencing defense focuses only on IDP (individual defensive player) leagues as this is what I know best.

Kickers and defensive players, as was stated in the opening are often times overlooked by owners across the fantasy football landscape. While I certainly would not recommend the drafting of either of these positions early and often, I also would submit that intelligent drafting through the identification of a "shortlist" will go a long way towards solidifying your weekly point output in any given league, so these spots should not be taken as lightly as many would recommend.

A Word on Scoring

Fantasy leagues have very different scoring systems. For the purposes of this article, I am measuring each player against one of the more common scoring systems and one with which I am the most familiar; however, the projected stats have been included so any scoring system can be applied and anyone can come up with rankings customized for their own leagues.

As a matter of reference, the scoring system used here is as follows: 1 point for every 30 yards passing/15 yards receiving/15 yards rushing, 6 points for each TD, -3 points for each INT thrown/fumble lost. Kickers are awarded 3 points per FG and 1 point for each PAT. Defensive rankings are assuming 1 point per tackle, 0.5 points per assist, 4 points for a sack, 3 points each for INT/fumble recovery/forced fumble.

KICKERS

First and foremost, it should be noted that if your league draft features any kicker's name being called prior to round eight, you are in the wrong league or should discuss renaming the guilty owner's team to something like "E-Z Money" or "Better Luck Next Year." It makes much more sense to start looking for your kicker sometime nearing the 14th round or shortly thereafter.

As unscientific an assessment as this may seem, there actually is some methodology behind the recommendation. In a 10-team league, by the time the 14th round rolls around, 130 players have been chosen. Each team, by this point, should have their two QBs (20 players), three RBs (30), and three WRs (30). Additionally, you would think each team will have chosen at least a single TE (10). Factor in another 15 RBs to cover handcuffs and the remaining starting backs that may be of less value and maybe 15 defensive players. Then you have those 10 picks you all laughed at (reaches, second TEs, that dummy that already picked a kicker) and that covers your 130 selections. Since you, being a draft genius armed with this handy draft guide, already have solidified your starters and primary rotation guys, rather than building some more roster fodder by reaching for those sleepers, take your guy at the K position.

The ultimate value that is realized through this strategy is the peace of mind that you will have not needing to scour the waiver wire each week for the best remaining kicking option. Not only that, but, if you pull this off, you'll have added a guaranteed 8-12 points each week to your scoring output, which, theoretically, will give you a 2-4-point cushion at that position over most any opponent you play. And you will have accomplished this without losing out on acquiring your strong primary player rotation.

I must stress that this strategy requires you to do your homework (or trust mine). You must settle on two or three options at the most and target one of those players. The moment those options are off the board, scuttle the plan and take a late round (read: last pick) flier on the best available upside guy remaining. The key with this strategy is to identify those who will consistently outplay others at the position and to get one of them without reaching. Otherwise, kickers outside of the very elite are very much alike in terms of average weekly output and you'd be better served scooping up some value picks that may be slipping as those others grab the kickers that would provide said advantage.

THE TOP 5

1. Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys (32/41 FG, 56 PAT) — Folk is, without a doubt, the top guy here. He is the perfect storm of accuracy, leg strength, and opportunity playing for a team featuring a very high-powered offense. While he may seem to lose some value due to the high scoring rate Dallas has enjoyed over the past few seasons, don't be fooled by this perception. The Cowboys struggle at times in the red zone, primarily due to their affinity for the pass, which will leave Folk with plenty of chances to convert.

2. Nate Kaeding, San Diego Chargers (31/38, 48) — Kaeding is a tough guy to figure. His performance in the league has been very up-and-down. However, his leg strength is amazing, he has shown some icy nerves, and once again his team situation serves him very, very well. Many will have Kaeding ranked lower than this, but with a banged up Antonio Gates sure to get off to a slow start, look for the Chargers to struggle a bit to get into the end zone early in the year, leading to a fist full of Kaeding chip-shots.

3. Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers (36/42, 32) — Without Brett Favre and with a year of game film on Ryan Grant, Green Bay may well have a very difficult time scoring points. They should have less issues moving the football, however, as their offensive scheme lends itself to picking up yardage without necessarily creating big-play opportunities. This bodes well for any kicker, and Crosby is as solid a young option as the league has. His accuracy even on the "frozen tundra of Lambeau Field" is a reassuring feature to have in a kicker, and you could do far worse than landing Crosby on draft day. The added bonus here is he won't be on the less savvy owners' radar screens, so he is a good bet to fall to right where you want him.

4. Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts (29/39, 51) — Like Dallas and to a lesser extent San Diego, the Colts' offense provides many a chance for the accurate Vinatieri. While leg strength is clearly becoming an issue for Adam, he is still as clutch a guy as there is and is very accurate inside 40 yards. If your league gives bonus points for field goal distance, than perhaps consider dropping Vinatieri down a notch or two, but not too far, as he is a sure thing to get opportunities.

5. Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots (27/38, 52) — While I feel very strongly that he is overrated as a kicker, the reality is Gostkowski plays for the Patriots and the Patriots have one of the premier offenses in the league. I'm quick to share that I see the Patriots realizing a significant drop-off in output this season; however, that would still leave them as one of the higher scoring teams in the league, so it certainly doesn't negatively impact the standing of their kicker. Be cautious on Gostkowski if your league penalizes for misses as he has shown a tendency to rush through easy kicks at times, pushing them wide.

THE BEST OF THE REST

6. Shayne Graham, Cincinnati Bengals (29/34, 43)
7. Rob Bironas, Tennessee Titans (31/37, 33)
8. Josh Scobee, Jacksonville Jaguars (26/32, 46)
9. Phil Dawson, Cleveland Browns (28/34, 39)
10. Jeff Reed, Pittsburgh Steelers (24/29, 47)
11. Neil Rackers, Arizona Cardinals (28/35, 35)
12. Kris Brown, Houston Texans (25/32, 41)
13. Ryan Longwell, Minnesota Vikings (25/30, 40)
14. Matt Prater, Denver Broncos (26/30, 36)
15. David Akers, Philadelphia Eagles (25/31, 38)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Taylor Mehlhaff/Martin Gramatica, New Orleans Saints: The Saints fit that mold of teams with powerhouse offenses that may struggle in the red zone. Factor in the always perfect dome conditions at home and the whichever Saints' kicker wins the job may have a breakout season in the Big Easy. If it turns out you miss out on your targeted guy, wait to the final round of your draft and don't be afraid to scoop up whichever turns out to be the opening weekend starter.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Josh Brown, St. Louis Rams: Signs of the ex-Seahawks' demise were clear late last season. He struggled mightily at times, and moving to a team that looks to be one of the very worst in football won't help his numbers out one bit. Brown is one of those guys who has name recognition and plays in a kicker-friendly domed environment, but don't think that he is a safe bet just because of those factors as he is far from it.

TEAM DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS UNITS

As was stated in the opening, team defensive/special teams units won't get too much press here. Having spent most of my fantasy football career utilizing the more dynamic approach of having individual defensive player (IDP) selections, I am far from an expert in sizing up what exactly separates a dominant unit from an average one. However, with the exhaustive review I performed on my IDP selections, I was able to glean some information that proved valuable in putting together the most valued team units. Additionally, since my rankings take into account special team performances (my league scores individual players on their special team contributions), I was able to apply that info to the team defense to come up with what I feel is an accurate list of the top groups for 2008.

THE TOP 5

1. Chicago Bears — May be a very traditional selection here, but their defense is certainly poised for a comeback after last season's disappointing outcome. Their linebacking corps is still as good a unit as there is and Adewale Ogunleye and Mark Anderson are a dynamic pass-rushing tandem. While I certainly don't need to put it in print, I will anyway: Devin Hester is the premier return man in the game.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars — The Jags are an underrated force to be reckoned with in the AFC South. Their defense is fast to the ball and filled with superb tacklers, even if there aren't a lot of big names features. Look for a breakout season from FS Reggie Nelson, who may well lead the NFL in picks as he has great defensive instincts and a nose for the ball. With Northcutt returning punts and the mercurial Maurice Jones-Drew handling kick return duties, their special teams value gets them lots of extra points.

3. San Diego Chargers — Even with an sub-100% Shawne Merriman (who, as of writing of this article has decided to play hurt), the Chargers are a fast-moving, aggressive defense. They will give up some big plays, but they also will turn some in themselves. Antonio Cromartie is the single most dynamic cornerback in football and will again prove his worth in 2008. They get lots of sacks, lots of picks, and score points, but don't expect them to turn in shut-down types of performances in terms of yards allowed and points given up. Darren Sproles creates additional value in the return game making the Bolts a very solid pick on draft day.

4. Baltimore Ravens — Many think this team defense has taken its turn and is clearly on the downswing. While this may be true, they were well ahead of the pack pre-downswing so the fact they've lost a bit of luster off their diamond doesn't necessarily doom them as a selection. Their special teams are adequate, but their real strength will be in yards and points allowed as they should consistently hold opponents in check. Too bad their offense will once again be lousy, or else the Ravens might be a dangerous team.

5. Green Bay Packers — While the Packers will be a far less effective offensive team as they transition into the Aaron Rodgers/Ryan Grant years, their defense has some serious chops. Al Harris and Charles Woodson are a good tandem in the defensive backfield as there is in the game today. Their front seven gets good pressure on the opposing QB and they tackle decently, though not flawlessly. All-in-all, they should give up a low number of points, acceptably low yardage totals, and they'll make enough plays to give you the occasional huge week. Their return game is good, not great.

THE BEST OF THE REST

6. Minnesota Vikings
7. Tennessee Titans
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. New York Giants
10. Carolina Panthers

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Dallas Cowboys: While their secondary is still very much a liability in terms of hard-nosed pass coverage, they put a lot of pressure on opposing offenses. They will give up big plays and will give up tons of points on some days, but the plays they make will give you some high-scoring weeks and their return game, featuring the recently re-instated Adam Jones, will buoy the unit.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: New England Patriots: This defensive unit was stout in '07, as was the rest of the team en route to their improbably 16-0 regular season record. But their cornerbacks are a particularly weak duo, Rodney Harrison has seen better days as a coverage safety and they are clearly will not be able to attack as regularly without giving up huge chunks of green. A solid return game may lull you into thinking this is a great unit to have, especially based on the laurels they earned last season, but look for a precipitous fall from grace for this overrated unit.

IDP (Individual Defensive Players)

When it comes to individual defensive players, they are pretty much what they are. Keeping this in mind, writing a blurb about each makes little sense, as the strengths of the players are pretty standard across the pool of players at each position. Additionally, it is very difficult to determine actual tackle numbers, so rather than add all that statistical mumbo jumbo, this list is plain and simple; the relative value of each player is accounted for and represented versus those others at his position.

In terms of when to start drafting defenders, anything sooner than round six is a reach, and truly only linebackers warrant any pick before round 10. The best linebackers are those on teams that have poor offenses as this translates to lots of chances for those players to pickup tackles. Defensive linemen have some value, but don't overvalue the one-dimensional pass rush specialists as they will leave you high and dry in many weeks. Defensive backs should be avoided except for the top half-dozen or so and even those individuals should be drafted nearer round 15. When looking at a defensive back, try to grab one with some value in the return game or from a team with traditionally poor tackling among the front seven, as it will lead to more tackles for the safeties and corners.

TOP LINEBACKERS

1. Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers (1 overall IDP)
2. David Harris, New York Jets (2)
3. DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans (3)
4. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys (5)
5. Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears (6)
6. Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks (7)
7. Mike Peterson, Jacksonville Jaguars (8)
8. Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers (9)
9. London Fletcher, Washington Redskins (11)
10. Channing Crowder, Miami Dolphins (12)
11. Paul Posluszny, Buffalo Bills (13)
12. Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers (14)
13. Kirk Morrison, Oakland Raiders (15)
14. E.J. Henderson, Minnesota Vikings (16)
15. A.J. Hawk, Green Bay Packers (18)
16. Nick Barnett, Green Bay Packers (19)
17. Barrett Ruud, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22)
18. Keith Bullock, Tennessee Titans (23)
19. Will Witherspoon, St. Louis Rams (24)
20. Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals (25)
21. Ernie Sims, Detroit Lions (27)
22. Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts (28)
23. James Harrison, Pittsburgh Steelers (29)
24. Lance Briggs, Chicago Bears (36)
25. Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens (38)

TOP DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

1. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings (4)
2. Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago Bears (20)
3. Mario Williams, Houston Texans (21)
4. Aaron Kampman, Green Bay Packers (26)
5. Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles (33)
6. Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers (34)
7. Justin Tuck, New York Giants (37)
8. Patrick Kerney, Seattle Seahawks (39)
9. Kyle Vanden Bosch, Tennessee Titans (40)
10. Aaron Schobel, Buffalo Bills (41)
11. Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs (42)
12. Will Smith, New Orleans Saints (43)
13. Elvis Dumervil, Denver Broncos (47)
14. Andre Carter, Washington Redskins (49)
15. Jason Taylor, Washington Redskins (55)

TOP DEFENSIVE BACKS

1. Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals (10)
2. Sean Jones, Cleveland Browns (17)
3. Antonio Cromartie, San Diego Chargers (30)
4. Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville Jaguars (31)
5. Kerry Rhodes, New York Jets (32)
6. Roman Harper, New Orleans Saints (35)
7. Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings (44)
8. Charles Woodson, Green Bay Packers (45)
9. Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers (46)
10. Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos (48)
11. Gibril Wilson, Oakland Raiders (50)
12. Terrence McGee, Buffalo Bills (51)
13. Brian Dawkins, Philadelphia Eagles (52)
14. Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers (53)
15. Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts (54)

There you have it, the final bit of information that will help you get on your way to fantasy football glory!

Best of luck to all who participate in a league in 2008 and beyond and check back mid-year as I review my picks against what has actually gone down in the season to date.