Why No Love For the Big Donkey?

Adam Dunn provokes resentment from all sides of the baseball divide — from old-schoolers like Joe Morgan to Moneyball-loving, computer nerds like J.P. Ricciardi. Morgan once chastised him on ESPN for hitting 40 home runs in 2006 but "only" having 92 RBIs, as if it was Dunn's fault there was hardly anyone on base for him while he was slugging his butt off. Ricciardi recently made a total fool of himself on a Toronto radio station for claiming that Dunn doesn't like baseball that much so he wasn't interested in acquiring him, despite the fact that if his anemic Blue Jay team acquired Micah Owings, he'd be more use to the team as a slugger than a pitcher.

The prosecution's case against Dunn is pretty straightforward. He strikes out a lot, his batting average is dreadful, he chokes with men on base, and he can't field.

No one is disputing Dunn strikes out a ton. He's a fixture around the top of the strikeout list every year. He's in his eighth year in the league and he's struck out 1,223 times in 3,763 ABs — quite a record.

His career batting average is an extremely pedestrian .247. Whether this is a big negative depends on your point of view as to how important batting average is. Old schoolers love it. Personally, I think it's the second worst statistic in baseball in terms of measuring worth — using wins to measure a pitcher being the absolute worst.

Dunn is possibly the worst outfielder in the National League. Even his mother covers her eyes when he's fielding. He's a stereotypical DH, but is marooned in the wrong league.

The "choking" accusation is the one that really hurts Dunn's reputation, and will, without doubt, affect his pay check this offseason when he's a free agent. Jon Heyman on SI.com recently tagged Dunn as "rarely coming through in the clutch" and worth "J.D. Drew money." Quite an insult considering Drew has only twice hit more than 20 home runs in a 10-year career and — to use old-school statistics to bash an old-school writer — only once has driven in 100 runs, mainly because, it has to be said, he's constantly on the DL, unlike that big choker Dunn.

Is Dunn a choker as Heyman and others claim? Does he prefer glorious solo shots so he can preen around the bases basking in singular glory or is he a team guy who likes a homo-erotic butt slap around home plate after a 450-foot 3-run homer?

What is "clutch", anyway? Is it a bases empty, 2-out, single in the bottom of the ninth when your team is 3 runs down, or is it a bases loaded, 0-2 count, home run when you're 12-0 up? No one has truly defined "clutch" except Joe Buck, who insists clutch is any famous player, except Alex Rodriguez, and anyone who wears a Red Sox uniform.

As I believe "clutch" is simply a lazy journalistic term that covers only "SportsCenter" highlight reel plays, I will address the issue of whether Dunn hits better, worse, or the same as his career average with RISP.

Dunn has been in the league long enough to draw some reasonable conclusions from his career numbers, which are reproduced below. The first obvious conclusion is that his bases empty numbers are almost a replication of his career numbers, with a slight dip in OBP. Dunn has hit 152 solo home runs in his career, more than with runners on base by a good margin, but he's had 2,128 ABs in that situation, 500 more ABs than with runners on.

Adam Dunn Career Numbers

RISP, 2 out shows a dip from the career average in every category except OBP, a nice tool for the knockers who claim that hitters like Dunn prefer to walk than take the responsibility of driving in the runner(s).

Dunn has been walked a staggering 300 times in 938 ABs with RISP. However, this isn't surprising given that a succession of managers in Cincinnati have seen fit to bat him at sixth or even seventh in the lineup, giving pitchers the ideal opportunity to either IBB him or pitch carefully around him. Dangerous hitters like Dunn can't hit at the bottom of the lineup without risking being pitched around, but Dusty Baker and others don't like "clogging the bases" with big guys. He should be hitting second or third in a NL lineup.

The theory that Dunn gets nothing to hit with RISP gets more credence once the bases loaded figures are examined. Batting average sees a 30-point spike, OBP drops, and slugging/OPS rises 100 points. He also walks about as much as he does with bases empty and below his career numbers.

With a man on third and less than 2 outs, the figures show another spike from the career norm. In just 179 career ABs in this situation, Dunn has driven in 135 non-choking RBI's.

Adam Dunn Career Numbers

In comparison with Mister Clutch himself, David Ortiz, Dunn is a notch below, but the numbers indicate he's quite prepared to shorten his swing or sac fly when the situation calls for it.

Overall, these aren't the numbers of a choker, but the likes of Joe Morgan, a succession of Reds beat writers, and Jon Heyman are far too important to waste their time doing a bit of research to substantiate their dubious claims. Dunn has a number of holes in his game that are well-documented, but not being a "clutch" hitter isn't one of them.

Dunn is a free agent this offseason. He should move to the AL, where he can DH. His career DH numbers, admittedly a very small sample size of 36 ABs, are significantly better than his career numbers. Not every player can adapt to DHing, and Dunn may be one who can't, but he'd be a perfect fit at Yankee Stadium, where the short porch to RF would be very inviting. At 28 and in today's fiscal climate, he's worth $15 million a year of any GMs money.

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Comments and Conversation

September 2, 2008

Kyle Jahner:

I love the Donkey. He is a manchild, gets on base at will, and should be a fixture in every home run derby regardless of All-Star status. Good article; and yes, I have yet to ee a writer justify slamming him with anything other than strikeouts and BA, even though a walks good as a hit and a pop-up is as good as a K. Although the idea of Dunn in pinstripes makes even me a little sad.

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