Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Why Georgia Should Not Be Ranked No. 1
Unless I'm mistaken, the preseason BCS rankings are supposed to be a formulaic listing of which teams are most likely to win the next year's college football national championship. So then why is it the BCS came out with a top 25 list that has Georgia at the top? Either the computers have gone haywire, or that's a real jab in the side of every other college program in the nation.
I think anyone who loses one of the most accurate kickers in recent college football history, gets out-rushed in over half of their divisional games, and barely squeaks by Troy shouldn't be given half the respect the University of Georgia has been given this offseason.
The University of Georgia will not know what to do with a bulls-eye as big as the one the BCS has painted on their backs. Riding the wave of their win over Hawaii, sportswriters all over the country are tabbing Georgia as something special next year. Some going so far as to project Georgia to win this year's title. Everyone will look to give them their best shot, including a handful of teams with payback on their minds. And now the Troys on UGA's schedule have something even more to play for.
Also, their schedule is not the cakewalk it was last season. In 2007, Georgia only played four ranked teams on their way to their bowl game against their highest-ranked opponent, an inflated No. 10 Hawaii. This year, half their games are against ranked teams with the lowest-ranked being Alabama, a team that out-rushed them in their Sept. 22nd meeting and that they only beat by three.
And one of those six ranked teams is Florida. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Urban Meyer has had that celebratory dance from last year on repeat in the weight room VCR. Florida was absolutely embarrassed in that game, and revenge — plus an offense led by a pissed-off Tim Tebow — will come into Jacksonville after a home game against Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will be coming off a physically-demanding road game against LSU. Back-to-back losses are to be expected.
It might sound a little strange at first, but Georgia really didn't have too many big wins last year, and they were consistently, well, inconsistent. They had to go to overtime to take Alabama, they struggled to put away Troy and Kentucky, and needed a fumble recovery and last-second field goal to defeat Vanderbilt. Too much has been made about their wins over Florida's suspect defense, an unpredictable Auburn team, and a completely overmatched Hawaii team. For a team where three of its games came down to four points or less, a clutch kicker is a necessity.
Over the course of next season, I see Georgia coming out the gate and winning their first two games against lowly Georgia Southern and Central Michigan and handling South Carolina. But a cross-country trip to Arizona State on Sept. 20th might give Georgia their first loss of the season and leave them vulnerable to a loss the following week against Alabama at home. At a predicted 3-1, the Bulldogs then get a week off to rest up for four straight weeks against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Florida. I see the Bulldogs splitting those games, losing to LSU and Florida. Then there's two road games against Kentucky and Auburn which the Bulldogs should again split and an easy season-ending game against Georgia Tech. That's 7-5 at the end of the season and a trip to the Fill-in-the-Blank Bowl on New Year's Day.
Happy holidays, Bulldogs. It's going to be a long season.