Since wild card play began back in 1995, nine different wild card teams have played in the World Series, including at least one wild card team in each of the previous six World Series. Here we break down the NL wild card race, including a list of the wild cards each team has as they fight for the all important fourth playoff spot.
Milwaukee Brewers
(Lead NL wild card race)
Why they can win: Starting pitching
The Brewers have the best 1-2 punch in the National League with C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Even though Sheets has just one win since the All-Star Break, he's pitched well, and Sabathia has been nothing short of dominant in his transition from the American to the National League. If the power hitters in this lineup like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can get hot in September, it'll be tough for any team to make up ground against the Brewers.
Wild card: C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia has been a perfect 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA since the Brewers acquired him on July 7th from the Indians. He's won a career best 10 consecutive decisions. He has returned his Cy Young form of a year ago and has given a real boost to this Brewers team.
C.C. has been known as a workhorse his entire career, and the Brewers are making Sabathia live up to that reputation. He has averaged 8 innings per start in his eight starts for Milwaukee, and thrown over 100 pitches in his last seven starts. In fact, Sabathia has thrown at least 100 pitches in 21 of his 26 starts this season.
But he's also the same pitcher who was just 1-2 with an 8.80 ERA in the postseason last season for Cleveland. And the same pitcher that started this season 1-5 with a 7.51 ERA before turning things around in May.
You can make a pretty strong argument that C.C. just ran out of gas last season. The Brewers are hoping that he has caught his second wind in time for the stretch run.
If Sabathia can continue at this pace, it'll be the rest of the National League that will be gasping for their playoff lives.
St. Louis Cardinals
(2 games back)
Why they can win: Favorable scheduling
The Cardinals will start a seven-game homestand this week which will feature a head scratching four off days. While it is rare, virtually unheard of at this point in the season, to have so many off days, this Cardinals team can certainly use this to their advantage. They can use the off-days to manipulate their starting rotation in their favor, as well as get some much-needed rest for this extremely young and inexperienced bullpen.
Playing seven games in 11 days also gives the team longer to evaluate the injury to Chris Carpenter and decide what to do with Adam Wainwright. If Carpenter is ready to return on August 26 as St Louis hopes, then Wainwright, who could be back as early as this week, could be used to bolster their shaky bullpen.
If Carpenter is going to be out for the rest of the season, the Cardinals could slide Wainwright into the rotation. Having off days to assess situations is a whole lot more favorable than constantly using stopgap solutions.
Wild card: Bullpen
The Cardinals used rookie pitchers to get 11 of the final 12 outs in a two-run game over the weekend. Their closer at the moment, Ryan Franklin, has just 14 saves in 21 tries.
The Cards are a respectable 21-22 in games decided by one run or less this season. However, trailing by two games this late in the season, the Cards cannot afford to give any games away. They caught lightning in a bottle winning the 2006 World Series by riding rookie arms in the postseason. Lightning may have to strike twice if the St. Louis Cardinals want to find themselves in the postseason for the seventh time in nine seasons.
New York Mets
(2.5 games back of wild card; lead AL East)
Why they can win: They seem to have put last season behind them
After the collapse at the end of last season that allowed the Phillies to win the NL East, the New York Mets have sent a very loud message to the players that this season will be different by firing manager Willie Randolph. So far the players have responded well.
The Mets have won eight of their last ten, including six in a row and host Atlanta and Houston for seven games before being really tested again in a big two game series in Philadelphia later this month. And though they will certainly miss Billy Wagner, who is going to be on the DL longer than they initially anticipated, the Mets have managed just fine without him.
If the Mets can continue to win games without their top arm out of the bullpen at their disposal, Wagner's return in September could be the boost this team needs to hold off the Phillies and redeem themselves from the collapse of 2007.
Wild card: Closer
I mentioned that New York has been able to win games recently even without Billy Wagner, but what happens if that doesn't continue? The Mets have already kicked around the idea of moving John Maine into the closer role until Wagner returns. Not every pitcher can make a smooth transition from starter to closer, and then back to starter a month later.
Asking Maine keep changing roles this late in the season could mess up his rhythm and render him ineffective for the stretch run. The Mets' bullpen has had its fair share of trouble holding leads this season, and asking a starter to shore up that position is a big task.
The best case scenario is that the Mets continue to get good starting pitching from guys like Johan Santana and Maine and win enough games to stay ahead of the Phillies while waiting for Billy Wagner's return. The worst case scenario? Well, we saw that last year.
Philadelphia Phillies
(4.5 games back of wild card, 2 games back of New York Mets)
Why they can win: Pitching
You might think of Ryan Howard and his towering home runs when you think of the Phillies, but it has been their pitching that has kept them in the NL East race this season. Coming into this week, the Phillies have the fifth-best ERA in the National League and the best save percentage, thanks in no small part to Brad Lidge and his perfect 30 saves in 30 opportunities.
They also have two starters, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, in the top 15 in the NL in ERA. Hamel also ranks third in the league in strikeouts.
The solid 1-2 punch the Phillies pack, combined with a rejuvenated Brad Lidge closing things out, means that the Phils aren't going anywhere any time soon.
Wild card: The offense
It's hard to imagine that a team that boasts the two reigning NL MVPs and plays in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park would have any trouble scoring runs, but that is exactly what is happening with the Phillies.
They rank just 12th in the National League in batting average, and rank in the bottom five in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, and runs scored in the last month.
For a team built around a core group of young stud hitters, the Phillies sure have a lot of trouble hitting the ball. Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley have all hit below .250 in the last month. They are going to need some consistency from their best hitters to have any chance to play this October.
Coming later this week, a look at the AL wild card race.
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