2008 Fantasy Football Preview: WR/TE

Also see: 2008 Fantasy Football Preview: QB/RB

Installment number two of your guided tour through my custom fantasy football draft rankings highlights those who make their names catching the balls, the wide receivers and tight ends. While these players typically aren't selected quite as high as those who garnered attention in the first of these three fantasy football preview pieces (QBs and RBs), they are every bit as important when faced with the prospect of putting together a championship fantasy football team.

In general, I wouldn't recommend selecting a WR until midway through the second round at the very earliest, and TEs can usually wait until at least round five. Typically, strong receiving performances are both difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis and not quite as productive as a strong rushing performance. Additionally, receivers are opened up to more injury opportunities just by the nature of their position and their comparatively less rugged build, which heightens the risk factor created in drafting anybody in the first two rounds of the draft.

In the case of the tight end position, they just don't play as large a part in the offense to justify a high pick; there are some obvious exceptions, but it has been my experience that it is best to let others reach for those few if you do your homework and make a solid, smart selection later in the draft.

A Word on Scoring

Fantasy leagues have very different scoring systems. For the purposes of this article, I am measuring each player against one of the more common scoring systems and one with which I am the most familiar; however, the projected stats have been included so any scoring system can be applied and anyone can come up with rankings customized for their own leagues.

As a matter of reference, the scoring system used here is as follows: 1 point for every 30 yards passing/15 yards receiving/15 yards rushing, 6 points for each TD, -3 points for each INT thrown/fumble lost. Kickers are awarded 3 points per FG and 1 point for each PAT. Defensive rankings are assuming 1 point per tackle, 0.5 points per assist, 4 points for a sack, 3 points each for INT/fumble recovery/forced fumble.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Focus on attaining one of two things BEFORE you pick a WR, if at all possible: two reliable starting running backs (be aware of injury histories & value TDs over yardage); or a strong starting runner and a solid quarterback option. Think of production from you WR as bonus points ... the goal is to get more bonus points than your opponent, but you do not want to rely on these guys as your primary scoring options ... that strategy is just too risky.

That said, there are a few receiving options that are very much fitting in that late 2nd to early 3rd round range. After those individuals, however, try to hold off until the fourth or fifth rounds at the earliest to start picking from the remaining pool. There is value to be hate as far as round 12 at the WR position if you stay true to the rankings.

THE TOP 25

1. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys (102 rec, 1,428 yds, 14 TD) — With Tony Romo leading the way at QB, it should come as no surprise that TO is my top-rated pass catcher. Owens dominated at times in 2007 and has such a good rapport with his quarterback that it is hard to imagine him doing anything other than dominating his opponents. Oh, and crying at press conferences.

2. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (84/1260/16) — Moss could just as easily be the number one guy on this list, as their numbers actually project to about the same number of points in my leagues' scoring format. However, I don't see Moss catching the volume of balls Owens will have, simply because Dallas should pass more than New England in '08. Still, the TD numbers are otherworldly for Moss and he is pretty much as unstoppable as it gets week in, week out.

3. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (92/1,325/11) — Probably not a big surprise here, either, as Wayne has proven to be the most dynamic and reliable target for one Mr. Peyton Manning, who is as "money" as QBs come these days. The return to health of Marvin Harrison won't cut into Wayne's numbers too much, as there are plenty of balls to go around even in a scaled back Indy passing attack.

4. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns (98/1,214/11) — After his breakout campaign in 2007, Edwards is poised to follow that up with another high volume season. Cleveland won't be quite the passing juggernaut that they were a year ago, but that won't effect Braylon's output as he is the real deal and just as tough to stop as the elite names you're used to seeing atop the receiving lists.

5. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (84/1,156/11) — Another young guy who has just begun his ascent into the receiving elite, Johnson must avoid injuries if he is to reach his full potential. You can assume he'll miss at least one game over the course of the season (these projections reflect that); however, he is ultra-productive when on the field and look for big catch and TD numbers from the Texan wideout.

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (94/1,318/9) — With Arizona still not quite "there" in terms of offensive excellence, Fitzgerald's TD numbers will remain in the single digits, but he and Anquan Boldin have taken their place as one of the most dynamic tandems on any team in the league. Fitzgerald has as good a set of hands as anyone in the league and his knack for catching the ball in traffic is Moss-like. This spells another big season for the Arizona receiver and he would make an excellent No. 1 receiver on any fantasy team.

7. Plaxico Burress, New York Giants (74/1,073/11) — Plax is at the top of the next group of receivers. While he doesn't have quite the upside as the previous six on this list, he is an excellent source of touchdowns and catches his share of passes. You could do far worse than picking Burress somewhere around round four.

8. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals (83/1,228/9) — "Ocho Cinco," as he likes to call himself, is still a dangerous guy to have to defend against, even if he has clearly begun to lose some of his explosiveness. In Cincy's traditionally pass-happy offense, Johnson got lots of chances to make plays. In the new model that they are leaning towards, there will be less passing overall, but more formulated attempts, which should lend itself to giving the precision route-runner more quality chances. So, in 2008, look for Johnson to put up the numbers you expect to see from him, but just in a slightly different manner (quality over quantity).

9. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (84/1,134/10) — Drew Brees' favorite target stands to see even less double-coverage with the addition of TE Jeremy Shockey, which could wind up getting Colston better numbers than those conservatively figured above. It will be business as usual for the big receiver as he continues his rise to league prominence.

10. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (94/1,269/8) — This ranking is deceiving for Smith. He is actually the highest rated receiver on my list for 2008, but he will be missing the first two games of the season, so his projected numbers actually reflect a 14-game total. The reality is he will miss those first two games, but he'll be as productive as anyone in the game once he does return. Carolina has a very easy passing schedule and Jake Delhomme looks sharp with his Tommy-John repaired elbow appearing to be stronger than ever.

11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals (94/1,119/8) — The only thing tougher than writing his name is trying to cover him. T.J. has emerged as the team's primary possession receiver with his ability to catch in traffic and take the big hit. Not much flair to his performances, but he is like a young Hines Ward in that he is very productive, sneaky-quick and always there to make the big play when it is needed. A good No. 1 guy, but a better complimentary receiver.

12. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers (63/1,008/9) — Holmes has emerged as Roethlisberger's play making receiver. He has an ability to release downfield, which makes him dangerous, but also marginalizes his value a bit as he becomes a non-factor on several plays as he is used as a decoy. If Holmes is chosen as your number one receiver, be sure to grab a second guy as soon as possible; Santonio will have several weeks where he puts up zilch in terms of production.

13. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (74/1,110/7) — This second-year pro is about one more season away from truly having a special season. There is no better talent in the game today, and that includes the Mosses and Owenses of the world. However, his lack of experience showed last season as he sometimes broke routes off too quickly and didn't trust his strength and physical presence as he should have, giving the defenders chances to knock passes down that should have been grabbed by the ex-Georgia Tech star. With time and experience, that will pass, and he'll catch every ball thrown his way ... just not quite yet. Still, the numbers and flashes of brilliance will be very good in '08 even if they are just a glimmer of his future level of stardom.

14. Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams (82/1,100/7) — As the Rams prepare for what could be as miserable a season as a team outside of Miami has had in a while, Torry Holt is the rare jewel in that otherwise dark and gloomy façade. Holt has shown that he can be productive in any situation, and this will be his biggest challenge. He is up for it, as you can expect solid numbers from the veteran pass catcher.

15. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (81/1,077/7) — Teaming with Larry Fitzgerald would make any receiver happy, and Boldin is no exception. While Fitzy may have cemented himself as the team's better receiver, the comparison is very tight, which speaks heavily to Boldin's ability level. An excellent choice, but an ideal guy to have as your No. 2 receiver.

16. Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks (88/1,001/7) — Branch has proven to be quite the injury liability, but if he remains healthy, he will emerge as a star in Seattle. He had flashes of his "old self" at times last season and with some more time working with Hasselbeck he should have a strong season. The recent injury to Bobby Engram, a traditionally popular Matt Hasselbeck target, will force Matt to create a better working relationship with the diminutive Branch, who has proven in the past that he can make tough catches consistently.

17. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings (75/1,102/6) — Berrian has great speed, but is going to be someone defenses focus on when they play the Vikes. That said, if you had Adrian Peterson staring you in the face, how focused could you realistically be on somebody else? Exactly.

18. Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills (71/1,044/7) — Evans is one of those guys that will frustrate the heck out of you all season. The weeks you sit him, he'll put up triple-digit yardage totals and multiple scores. The weeks you have him in your lineup, he'll finish with 3 catches for 17 yards. This has been the trend of the talented Evans, and it will continue, to an extent. However, he began to show some more consistency in getting open late in '07, which bodes well for at least a slight increase in reliability for '08. Tread carefully, but if he remains on the board in rounds six or seven, jump all over him.

19. Roy Williams, Detroit Lions (74/1,043/7) — I worry that I'm missing something when I see how low I've ranked this talented receiver, but once legs start getting chronically injured, especially with receivers, you need to take notice. These numbers aren't by any means bad, but as talented as he is, you'd hope for more.

20. Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers (71/999/7) — Having escaped Miami last season, Chambers really began to fit into the Chargers' offensive scheme late in the season. With a full array of camps and practices with the team to further assimilate the offense, look for Chambers to play a much larger role in the San Diego passing game in '08.

21. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers (58/887/8) — No Brett Favre means less productivity for one of the bigger surprises of the '07 season. While it cannot be questioned that he is not a fluke, you cannot expect Aaron Rodgers to hit Jennings with the same big plays as did Favre, which will limit his production.

22. Laveranues Coles, New York Jets (74/903/7) — Having Brett Favre means Coles will get his chance to run with a truly premier QB for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, you can expect Laveranues to get hurt and miss a couple of games, which drops his value some, but he could well have a career year if he stays healthy — that's a big "if."

23. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (74/1,036/6) — Last year, Bowe gave a glimpse of what he could be. With a more settled KC quarterback situation, Bowe should really shine and while he may struggle to get in the end zone, he will produce big catch and yardage totals.

24. Tedd Ginn, Jr., Miami Dolphins (55/798/8) — Not exactly a guy that you can count on to get five or six catches a game, Ginn should see much more activity in his second season as a pro. He can fly, and this will mean a bunch of big plays, so while his reception and yardage totals will be pedestrian, his TD totals should be a big boost. Additionally, you can count on Ginn to return at least two kicks for scores and rack up a pile of return yardage, so factor that in if your league scores individual special team points to players.

25. Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles (67/925/7) — Curtis is the No. 1 option on the Eagles not named Brian Westbrook. He has all the tools and has grown into one of Donovan McNabb's favorites. Look for consistency from Curtis with a few big games sprinkled in.

THE BEST OF THE REST

26. Santana Moss, Washington Redskins (77/947/6)
27. Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders (68/844/7)
28. Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56/913/6)
29. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (78/894/6)
30. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (68/970/5)
31. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos (62/936/5)
32. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers (76/792/6)
33. Jerry Porter, Jacksonville Jaguars (67/821/6)
34. Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (59/791/6)
35. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers (65/871/5)
36. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts (65/857/5)
37. Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens (77/817/5)
38. Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans (56/706/6)
39. Patrick Crayton, Dallas Cowboys (50/710/6)
40. Javon Walker, Oakland Raiders (48/720/5)
41. Donte Stallworth, Cleveland Browns (45/639/6)
42. Justin McCareins, Tennessee Titans (52/668/5)
43. Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers (50/670/5)
44. Reggie Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars (51/681/5)
45. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings (51/663/5)
46. Bryant Johnson, San Francisco 49ers (48/638/5)
47. Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks (60/702/4)
48. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (47/670/4)
49. Devin Hester, Chicago Bears (32/576/6)
50. Steve Smith, New York Giants (54/681/4)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Dennis Northcutt, Jacksonville Jaguars: Northcutt is aging, but is a great insurance policy for the Jags if something were to happen to Reggie Williams or Matt Jones. And if you read the paper or watch TV, you will know that something already has happened to Matt Jones that should keep him on ice for the balance of the '08 season. Northcutt is definitely someone to be drafted early, but grab him in round 20 and stash him on your bench. OR ... Jabar Gaffney, New England Patriots: With the departure of Donte Stallworth, someone will need to fill that oft-used third receiver slot in New England. Gaffney seems to have a nice relationship with Brady and is adept at finding the soft spot in the defense.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Kevin Walter, Houston Texans: Many publications see Walter as a candidate to have a huge follow up season to his surprising emergence in 2007. Be very wary of this; Walter did not contribute much, if anything, with Andre Johnson in the lineup. He simply isn't a good complimentary guy as he runs soft routes and lacks separation speed. As a possession receiver, the role played by Johnson, he is solid, but with a healthy Johnson, his upside is quite limited as a weak-side receiver. AND ... Darrell Jackson, Denver Broncos: With the continuing saga of Brandon Marshall still unfolding, Jackson seems like a good natural choice to pick up some of his slack. This might be true, however, Brandon Stokley is a much more likely candidate to carry the load inside the red zone as he runs tighter routes and has far better hands. Jackson may get some good yardage numbers, but he will struggle to find the end zone, making him a player whose production you could match through picking off the waiver wire each week.

TIGHT ENDS

For all the pomp and circumstance surrounding QBs, RBs and WRs on draft day, the tight end position is largely ignored. My personal drafting strategy is to not even look the direction of a tight end (except for the occasional waitress, depending on where my draft is held) until round six or seven where I grab the highest rated sleeper on my draft board. The reason behind this is simple value; unless you can score one of the prime time TE options, their numbers are little more than anecdotes in your weekly totals. Typically, those prime time tight ends are overvalued, so you can use that pick after your league rival snags Antonio Gates to pick up the WR or RB that slipped as a result of Gates being drafted earlier than he should be.

The tight end position is valuable, but not a difference-maker. In most cases, you can use the waiver wire to fill the spot each week with the best available option; however, if you can stand to use a pick around rounds 6-9, do it. It will be one less thing to worry about. But definitely do not draft two TEs. When the bye week comes around, fill the position with a one-week sub off the wire; use that roster spot to build depth at one of your other premier positions.

THE TOP 10

1. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (91/1,011/7) — I expect great things from Gates in '08. With Chambers on the outside opening up the middle and with no hold out, Antonio makes for a strong pass-catching option in the San Diego offense.

2. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (81/988/7) — Just missing the top ranking, Witten teams with Romo and Owens to put up one heck of a fantasy football receiving group together. He is an exceptional "safety valve" for Romo and figures to contribute greatly to the success of the Cowboys' dynamic passing attack.

3. Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants (76/846/8) — Shockey should thrive in the Saints pass-happy attack. Brees will look his way early and often, especially in the red zone, which should translate into big productivity for the moody Shockey.

4. Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland Browns (77/963/6) — Winslow proved to be as good as advertised last season, showing off his tremendous potential and what could be if he is to remain healthy and clear-headed. All signs point to Winslow producing more of the same in '08. He is a very safe pick.

5. Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins (59/708/7) — Cooley is an intriguing option. The 'Skins should pass more in 2008 and with all the speed they have at receiver, he makes a good option floating around the middle of the field. While he'll never be at the same level as the four ranked ahead of him, he is a solid contributor and could be had later in the draft.

6. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts (58/655/7) — Playing for Indy scores him points, literally and figuratively, but Clark lacks the consistent big play potential of the others high on this list. You could do worse, but he is one of those prime candidates to let others reach for him as he is a bit overvalued by many.

7. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (66/789/6) — Davis is the opposite of Clark. Truly an undervalued option, Davis is dynamic and blistering fast. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz will be very creative with Davis's rare skill set, which could translate into an interesting and productive output from the young tight end. His only weakness is his QB, which keeps his totals down somewhat, but he is a good guy to try to snag in rounds six or seven after some of the bigger name guys are gone.

8. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs (59/679/5) — As you can see, the projected numbers aren't too bad, but aren't the numbers we've come to expect from the veteran Chief TE. Invariably, some inexperienced fantasy owner jumps on Gonzalez far too early — don't let that be you — but if for whatever reason he slides, he is a good pick up in rounds six or seven.

9. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (43/503/6) — More of a TD guy than a standard receiving option, Miller is a likely target for Big Ben near the goal line. Don't expect earth-shattering weekly performances, but he will be good for a couple of scores in some weeks and should net you some productivity each and every week.

10. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans (59/679/5) — Many had him tagged as a sleeper last season, which wound up getting him overvalued (ironically enough). This season, he seems to be a bit more under the radar, so keep a pulse on the draft and don't be afraid to pick up Daniels in rounds seven or eight, especially if most of the others ranked ahead of him on this list have been selected.

THE BEST OF THE REST

11. Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos (51/632/5)
12. Alge Crumpler, Tennessee Titans (58/664/4)
13. Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens (57/593/5)
14. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders (53/551/4)
15. L.J. Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (46/515/4)
16. Ben Watson, New England Patriots (35/424/5)
17. Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers (39/449/4)
18. Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams (49/515/3)
19. Greg Olson, Chicago Bears (45/495/3)
20. Kevin Boss, New York Giants (40/432/3)
21. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars (41/426/3)
22. Alex Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (34/371/3)
23. Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans (33/418/2)
24. Ben Utecht, Cincinnati Bengals (28/300/3)
25. Leonard Pope, Arizona Cardinals (29/293/3)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Leonard Pope, Arizona Cardinals: Just barely making my top-25, Pope could prove to be a very serviceable target for whoever is taking snaps in the Valley of the Sun. Pope is big and athletic and was misused in '07, so if the offensive brain trust can figure out how to more effectively utilize this weapon, expect 40+ catches, 500+ yards and a half-dozen TDs out of Pope.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears: Desmond Clark handles much of the heavy lifting at the TE position for Chicago, with Greg Olson handling the more finesse duties of running routes and catching passes. Unfortunately for Clark and any prospective Clark owner, fantasy football doesn't award points for blocking.

While the information provided herein should set the table nicely on draft day, it would be remiss for me not to include the following bit of cautionary advice: do not wait too long on pulling the trigger on these positions. While I have minimized their value to an extent, they do have some very real value, so you do not want to find yourself in the position that you are just replacing spare parts come Sunday mornings. The guidelines included in the informational listings above are based on standard draft assumptions, but you must see how your draft is progressing and adjust accordingly. It may well turn out that tight ends are overvalued across the board in your league, and if this is the case, you might need to grab "your guy" much earlier than you would have anticipated. If you stay true to your rankings, you'll do just fine.