August is a month of new beginnings. For much of the nation, schools will be reopening their doors after summer hiatus. Throngs of eager literati will be closing the book on their boring old lazy days of summer and opening their minds anew for another thrilling year of scholastic growth and heavily-structured days.
This month also marks the unofficial start of Major League Baseball's "second season," when teams are deciding once and for all if they'll just be waiting for next year and playing out the string or if they are going for the gusto in overcoming the "dog days" for a shot a postseason glory. August also is the time of year where those of us in the Gulf Coast states watch the Weather Channel a little more intently as that pesky hurricane season kicks into high gear.
However, perhaps the most important "new beginning" that faces most of us in August is the brand new fantasy football season that will be upon us sooner rather than later. Most leagues hold their drafts in August and with those drafts comes the prospect of glory for any man, woman, or child who chooses to partake in one of the millions of fantasy football leagues operated worldwide.
Far too often, prospective team owners go into their drafts unawares and unprepared for the work at hand. Either their preferred "custom" rankings come from an organization/publication that overvalues promptness and are issued in mid-June (invariably these lists miss the finer points and details that can only be picked up on once teams start their camps in late July), or, worse, they try to wing it based on what they know of last season's results (a monumentally disastrous approach, just ask anyone who drafted Shaun Alexander last season). I will say, if you don't fall into either of these categories, than you may well have a firm grasp on your prospective draft strategy. However, I do invite you to review the projections I have detailed, as recent history has been very good to the Thomas System (no trademark pending).
As a public service to those of you who do participate in fantasy leagues, but just aren't up to creating your own rankings, this series of articles will serve as your proverbial balefire, outlining the top players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and Individual D) complete with a handy explanation on the "how's" and "why's". As a bonus to those of you who play in a league where team defenses are used (I do not), I've rated THE TOP 10 defense/special team units.
This first entry focuses on the QB and RB positions.
A Word on Scoring
Fantasy leagues have very different scoring systems. For the purposes of this article, I am measuring each player against one of the more common scoring systems and one with which I am the most familiar; however, the projected stats have been included so any scoring system can be applied and anyone can come up with rankings customized for their own leagues.
As a matter of reference, the scoring system used here is as follows: 1 point for every 30 yards passing/15 yards receiving/15 yards rushing, 6 points for each TD, -3 points for each INT thrown/fumble lost. Kickers are awarded 3 points per FG and 1 point for each PAT. Defensive rankings are assuming 1 point per tackle, 0.5 points per assist, 4 points for a sack, 3 points each for INT/fumble recovery/forced fumble.
QUARTERBACKS
As always, signal-callers are a huge part of any fantasy football team's successful equation. This season, however, their importance is compounded as, for the first time for as long as I can recall, I would rank three QBs in the overall top 10. Be warned: beyond the first four candidates on my list (which all would get second round or better recommendations), the remaining QB offerings won't really bring value until the fourth round or later. Moreover, if you can wait until rounds 5-7 where you can pick up a productive sleeper at the position, you'll be much better served using your top four selections on some from the shorter-than-ever list of top-tier running backs.
THE TOP 10
1. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (4,068 yds, 35 TD, 16 INT, 3 rushing TD) — Romo barely edges out Tom Brady this year in my rankings as a result of his schedule. The Cowboys play the third easiest passing schedule in football, while the Pats fall somewhere in the middle of the pack. His turnover numbers remain high, but he buoys this with an impressive yardage and TD output, but it is his propensity to scramble for a few scores in the red zone that give him the added few points to boost him over Brady oh-so-subtly.
2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (4,242/36/16 with 4 lost fumbles) — Last year's record-breaking performance pushed Tom Terrific into the upper echelon of fantasy heroes, and for good reason. While it isn't out of the question to think he will duplicate his otherworldly numbers of 2007, his schedule pits him against some of the best defensive backs in the game today (Champ Bailey, DeAngelo Hall, Patrick Surtain, and Antonio Cromartie, to name a few) which is going to result in him turning the ball over more often. While the balance of his schedule will provide favorable matchups, the re-emphasis that Bill lBelichik has indicated he'll be putting on the run will steal some value as will those tougher matchups that he does have to face.
3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (4,028/33/13) — No surprise here ... the elder Manning brother remains one of the greatest QBs ever to play the game and while he may start slowly due to his offseason knee surgery, he is sure to put up similar numbers to years past and is a very safe early round pick regardless of format.
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (4,099/31/12/4 fum) — With the possible exception of Romo, no QB on this list has more potential to truly have a special year than Brees. His accuracy, combined with the addition of Jeremy Shockey as an inside target and the potential maturation of Reggie Bush makes Brees an intriguing play. His TD numbers could well soar in 2008 and he should keep his INT totals low, which could put his statistical output far above what I've predicted. While Brees is not quite a first-round pick, he would provide excellent value as a third-rounder and is quite worthy of a second round selection.
5. Vince Young, Tennessee Titans (3,136/18/13 plus 640/6 rushing) — Don't be fooled by his high rating here; there is a precipitous drop-off between my top four and Young, who stands atop my second tier of QB prospects. V.Y. has the potential to cut his INT rate down significantly if he learns to stop forcing his passes and uses his legs a bit more, which smart money says he will finally grasp in '08. He has shown growth on every level each year he has played, and this should be no different as he has a breakout season for the Titans.
6. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (3,697/30/18) — Palmer is a tricky guy to figure out. His predicted yardage totals look low to me, especially when considering the relative ease of their schedule, particularly against the pass. But he will continue to throw lots of picks as the Bengals still don't have a truly scary rushing attack to keep defensive backfields from clogging up his passing lanes. Still, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson running routes for him and the addition of TE Ben Utecht, his potential to have those 300-yard, 5-TD weeks makes him a very tempting option.
7. Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins (3,428/24/9/5 fum) — Campbell has had an excellent offseason, showing significant growth in his grasp of the offense. His low INT totals make him a solid weekly play.
8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (3,232/26/16) — Big Ben has been a popular guy in most publications as a candidate to truly have a special year as a passer. I'm not buying that. He'll be solid, to be sure, but he is not the type to truly dazzle with sustained passing excellence, so I'd figure on Ben sitting in the middle of most every major passing stat leader board once the dust settles on the 2008 season, making him a solid but unspectacular fantasy option.
9. Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers (3,672/26/14) — While the annually underrated Delhomme is coming off a significant injury, the fact remains that his Panthers play the single easiest passing schedule in the league. The team suspension of Steve Smith will cut into his productivity, but only slightly, as a resurgent Carolina team will surprise many and Jake stands to gain the most from this.
10. Brett Favre, New York Jets (3,662/26/16) — Favre on the J-E-T-S makes this Dolphin lover very, very upset. But in the spirit of this article, Brett should light up the New York sky with his passing heroics en route to a typically Favre-like 2008 campaign. While there is little chance he'll put up the numbers he did in '07, he is a very solid play and would be an excellent weekly option for any prospective fantasy champion.
THE BEST OF THE REST
11. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders (3,887/24/17)
12. Matt Hasselback, Seattle Seahawks (3,395/23/14)
13. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars (2,858/20/9)
14. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles (3,120/22/11)
15. Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams (3,361/22/15)
16. Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos (3,358/20/14)
17. Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns (3,072/23/16)
18. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (3,225/22/14)
19. Eli Manning, New York Giants (3,075/22/16)
20. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans (3,289/19/12)
21. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (3,054/19/14)
22. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3,034/17/10)
23. Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals (2,988/18/12)
24. Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions (3,278/17/16)
25. Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings (2,746/13/14/4 rushing TDs)
TAKE A CHANCE ON: Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins: Could be rejuvenated under Bill Parcells' watchful eye in Miami and with two games each against week coverage units in New York and Buffalo along with that oh-so-inviting St. Louis contest on the schedule, Pennington will be good for at least a half dozen quality weeks.
STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: The popular rookie has the "goods," but don't be seduced by the talent you see him show in the preseason. Atlanta's schedule is absolutely brutal against the pass and it will be a learning season to say the least for Mr. Ryan.
RUNNING BACKS
Running backs are the difference-makers in fantasy football, with apologies to the 2007 version of Tom Brady and 2004's Peyton Manning. Without a solid team core built on a solid corps of backs, it is very difficult to field even a competitive fantasy squad, much less a winning one. This reality becomes even further eye-opening when scanning the list of backs for 2008. More than any other year, this should prove to be the year of the running-back-by-committee, which while a productive strategy for real life NFL squads, it makes picking backs that can guarantee a weekly contribution to your fantasy efforts more difficult than tackling Barry Sanders in the open field.
Having said all this, there are some runners to be had that will get the bulk of their team's carries. There are even some that are destined to split time that are well worth having, but I would strongly recommend that if you net yourself any of those such options that you are diligent in obtaining their running mate, if for no other reason than to protect your investment.
The Top 25
1. LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (1,424 yards, 17 TD, 424 receiving yds, 4 TD) — Not yet, Mr. Peterson. Until proven otherwise, L.T. is still "the man" when talking about the RB position in any fantasy draft. If you have the No. 1 pick, don't even hesitate — make this pick.
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (1,378/15/470/5) — As you can see, the projected numbers are very close between A.P. and L.T. The "x-factor" is Adrian's health — he is a liability to miss at least a game or two — but even with those two missed weeks, you should be committed if you pass this guy up if he is on the board when you pick (assuming L.T. is not).
3. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts (1,413/12/370/2) — Many fantasy experts tried to convince the masses that Addai was worthy of this high praise going into last year and I warned you all then that he wasn't quite ready for prime time. Well, he is now.
4. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles (1,183/7/687/3) — Even though he gets a good half-dozen or so TDs vultured from him each year, Westbrook is one of the most productive and reliable runners available. Having settled (finally) on his long-term contract extension, there should be no roadblocks to Westbrook putting up the numbers we've come to expect from him.
5. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys (998/14/308/2) — Barber will get more carries in '08, even with Felix Jones riding shotgun in Big D. He is a powerful runner who is quick to the hole, which makes him a very comforting player to have on your roster; he isn't subject to those 20-carry, 35-yard weeks. His value is compounded since he is the red zone option for one of the more prolific offenses in pro football; however, he does play a very strong run schedule, so I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't quite hit the numbers I've projected for him.
6. Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs (1,204/11/289/3) — Don't sweat L.J.'s relatively disappointing 2007 season. He will bounce back as K.C. has strengthened their line a bit and plays a slightly easier schedule. Not to mention, his QB will have another season of experience under their belt, which will hopefully lighten the attention load and free up a little running room for Johnson.
7. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills (1,218/9/327/2) — Lynch had a great rookie campaign in '07 and seems poised to follow that up with a strong '08 season. His versatility will help as he will remain a three-down back, however, be a little wary of his injuries; he does get dinged up week-to-week, so be sure you have a solid No. 2 back if Lynch is your No. 1.
8. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (1,155/8/478/2) — That Gore is even in the top 10 is a testament to his ability. San Francisco's offense is an unmitigated disaster and even the great Mike Martz will have a tough time ironing that mess out. Still, Gore is such a good mix of speed and power that he remains very much a solid, reliable performer. TDs will not be what you'd hope for from a top back, but you should be able to steal him mid-to-late round two, which would give you excellent value.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (1,056/10/395/2) — Jones-Drew wound up being a bit overvalued last season due to Fred Taylor's resurgence, but keep in mind that Taylor's '07 season was a surprise for a reason: he's old and frail. Jones-Drew stands to gain from this reality as there is little chance Taylor will match his performance from last season, which will greatly increase Mo's usage. Added bonus: Jones-Drew gets a pile of return yards and at least one score a season so keep that in mind if your league gives points to individual special team performances.
10. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins (900/7/527/4) — Before Brown went down to that devastating knee injury last season, he was the top point-scorer among all running backs. While he will be hard-pressed to regain that form so quickly, by Week 5 he should be back to his normal self and will be poised to finish strong. Look for much more contribution from Brown in the short passing game.
11. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins (1,029/10/256/2) — Some publications say that Portis is poised for a breakout season, others say watch for Ladell Betts to get some of his carries. I expect Portis to have a strong season, but I do see Betts getting more time than he has in the past. I see Portis taking more of the red zone carries than I think many expect, which will boost his TD total nicely.
12. Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens (1,324/8/275/1) — All indications are McGahee is ready to have a strong season handling an uncharacteristically heavy workload. His yardage total certainly should reflect this new commitment to the run, however the team will likely still have a tough time scoring touchdowns, which has been the downfall of this franchise since its move to Baltimore.
13. Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots (1,029/12/111/1) — Maroney will, if nothing else, get lots of chances to score. I liked him a great deal more prior to the signing of Lamont Jordan, but I see that more of an insurance policy for the oft-injured Maroney than anything else. Look for the skilled New England runner to miss a few games, but put up strong numbers over the balance of the season.
14. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (1,169/7/342/2) — I know what you're thinking, and I agree ... this is very low for Jackson. Assuming he plays in '08 at all (he was still holding out at time of this writing), definitely expect a down year. First and foremost, he missed a pile of preseason training regardless of how his contract situation plays out, so expect a very slow start. Add that to a diminished passing attack and a much weaker o-line, and the ingredients for a very disappointing season are certainly in place. That said, if he is holding out on your league's draft day, see if you can't pick him up in round four; he would be one heck of a steal at that spot if he does play at all in 2008.
15. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans (1,083/11) — If White were even remotely a threat to catch a pass or two, he would fly up this list to the top 10. White is a powerhouse of a runner with sneaky speed and great running instincts. This is one of those guys that will win you a championship; you grab him early in round four, before he's on anyone else's mind, and take his 15 points a week on top of the other two stud runners you picked in rounds 1-3.
16. Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns (1,163/8) — Lewis's body is aging and has been used liberally, to say the least, in his NFL career. Still, he is a rare mix of power and speed and is usually good for three or four absolutely huge games each season, which makes him a valuable commodity as a No. 2 or 3 back. Some may overvalue him, so don't be surprised if he is drafted in rounds 1-3, but I would abstain from looking in his direction until at least round four, even though I may have him ranked higher than some other legit third-round options.
17. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (1,080/9) — This issue with Jacobs is how much will he get used. Ahmad Bradshaw looked good enough late last season and through the playoffs to tempt the defending world champs into utilizing him a bit more. The good thing about the bruising Jacobs is that he will, without fail, be their short yardage guy, which means lots of scoring opportunities. I still like Jacobs to top 1,000 yards, but do keep an eye on how Bradshaw is used, particularly late in the preseason, to be sure you don't reach for Jacobs.
18. Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (971/8/247/1) — Graham came out of nowhere last season to put up some decent numbers for the Bucs. Expect more of the same, though the return to health of Cadillac Williams and the presence of Warrick Dunn will cost him some carries.
19. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers (964/8/227/1) — As good as Grant looked at times in '07, much of his early success came as a result of poor preparation by his opponents. Expect many of the teams they play this season to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers to make plays, shutting down the straight-line running Grant.
20. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints (632/5/600/4) — I bet you thought you had finally heard the last of Reggie as a top-tier option ... wrong. While Bush may never be the running threat that many had pegged him as in the NFL, his two-dimensional ability make him a threat to put up huge week each and every week; problem is, you never know when it will come. Rest assured, though, late last season it was clear that Bush was beginning to understand that he won't be able to outrun the league to the edge as he did in college, which means he'll be more consistent with his weekly yardage output.
21. Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals (1,077/6/166/1) — Edge is a curious selection. He could return to form any time and put up a 1,300-yard/15-score season. However, he just doesn't seem to run with the passion that he once had and he has made no secret of the fact that he isn't your typically live-to-play-football kind of guy. That said, he is still a talent and will put up decent numbers for a continuously improving Arizona team.
22. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders (996/6/262/1) — Let me be very clear here: McFadden could potentially be this year's Adrian Peterson. However, a suspect set of blockers and the ever bumbling ways of the Raiders may cost him that opportunity. Still, I am a believer that things are beginning to turn around for the Silver and Black, which would make McFadden an inviting pick in the latter stages of rounds four and five.
23. Thomas Jones, New York Jets (912/6/146/1) — Ironically, the one guy who could stand to gain the most from Favre's addition to the roster might actually lose the most. The freedom that Favre is likely to be given will mean less opportunities for Jones to do his thing and, while he will get used, he certainly won't get overused which will cut into his productivity considerably.
24. Selvin Young, Denver Broncos (880/6/227/1) — With rookie Ryan Torain falling victim to a preseason injury, Young may do even better than these projections suggest. Still, it remains to be seen if the ex-Longhorn can handle a heavy pro workload.
25. Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals (889/8) — I can guarantee you this: Rudi Johnson will not be on anybody's priority list come draft day. He will, however, be part of re-emphasized running attack in Cincy, which should translate into scoring chances. You may get laughed at, but don't be afraid to snag Rudi in rounds five or six. You have my word that he'll pay dividends.
THE BEST OF THE REST
26. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (1,223/4/245)
27. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers (1,103/4/155/1)
28. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions (841/6/117/1)
29. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (800/6/163/1)
30. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (836/6/147/1)
31. Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys (754/4/226/2)
32. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars (864/5/90/1)
33. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers (672/7/134)
34. Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins (795/3/304)
35. Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (581/5/116/1)
36. Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings (585/4/198/1)
37. Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks (646/4/135/1)
38. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons (594/2/269/1)
39. Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (424/3/228/2)
40. Ahman Green, Houston Texans (616/4/133)
TAKE A CHANCE ON: Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints — With McAllister's health a huge question mark again and Bush clearly not an every down back, Thomas is a strong potential sleeper with tremendous upside. OR ... Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: As a rookie, expectations for Rice will be low to non-existent. But he has great hands and is tough to tackle, a good combination to have and on an underachieving offense in Baltimore, he may well get plenty of opportunity to shine.
STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Sammy Morris, New England Patriots: His run as New England's backup to Moreney is over. That makes him an injury-prone part time runner with little speed ... not exactly a calling card to success. AND ... Chris Brown, Houston Texans: Every year, he dazzles owners with one or two superlative performances. Every year, he sits on the bench with a stubbed toe or a hangnail or a bruised ego ... do yourself a favor, don't put yourself through that again just because he's on a team that needs a runner.
As you can see, many things have changed from last season in the fantasy football realm. Hopefully, this missive and the two that follow (WR/TE and K/Defense) will serve as your guided tour to getting yourself in that position to hoist your own fantasy football championship trophy come January. Stay tuned!
August 13, 2008
Nick Eman:
Pick up Steven Jackson in round 4??? I understand the potential for missing season games but do you really see him dropping to round 4 in ANY draft? And you are ready to commit people who pass on Peterson with the 2nd pick? Even if Jackson produces like a 4th round player, I disagree that he will drop that far. Even Marvin Harrison who, about 1 month ago, had tremendous amounts of negativity around him was being drafted around the 5th round.
August 13, 2008
Matt:
Nick…I appreciate the comments for sure, however, my point is that Jackson isn’t a fourth round pick but rather he shouldn’t be drafted any earlier than he fourth round. You, being what I would assume to be a fantasy veteran, know as well as I do that the #14 RB is more like a 2nd round pick, and this is where I have Jackson ranked. However, I wanted to put in writing the point that you should not draft said player UNLESS he is around in round 4, because you will be disappointed potentially.
But, as I’ve indicated, if things stay as they are and he gets his butt to camp, he will produce numbers worthy of the 14th overall RB, based on my projections…not that bad a season, if you ask me, all things considered.
As for Peterson…yes, I am ready to commit anyone willing to pass on Peterson with the 2nd pick. His point total will be no less than fifty points higher than the #3 RB, regardless of format.
Keep reading!!! Watch for the WR/TE piece in the next couple of days as well as the D/K bit which will come later next week.
August 13, 2008
Nick Eman:
But, in my opinion, if Jackson has a bust of a season he would/could be a disappointment if drafted in the 4th round too.
Considering Jackson’s situation is not injury related, I just do not see him falling to the 4th round. A healthy Jackson, with his pedigree as a top 5 pick, and potential level of production just “shouldn’t” drop that far. Would you say LT2 or Peterson should be drafted in th 4th if either one of them was holding out?
Peterson…I have no problem with the value you have attached to him, my point is if one deserves to be committed to the fantasy football loony bin for passing on Peterson due to his injury risk, then how does one not deserve that same fortune for letting Jackson drop to the 4th round?
With a holdout, bam, at any given moment the player signs and is ready to go, with certain injuries, a player is guaranteed to miss games.
NFL fantasy just had a piece today, I take it you disagree with what they say: http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d5d809a856f&template=with-video&confirm=true
I greatly appreciate your positive assumption that I am fantasy football veteran, I would say I am a young veteran (going into my 4th year of FF). For the most part, I agreed with your QB analysis, your RB analysis, not so much…but I suppose that is the general nature of fantasy RBs, all-star one season, disappointment the next.
August 15, 2008
Matt:
Great comments! But I guess I need to be a bit more clear on what my point here is…not that it matters, as you’ve pointed out, we all make our own judgments which IS the name of the game.
I am not calling Jackson a “4th round pick” at all…and it has far less to do with his holdout than with the combination of his holdout and his unfortunate team situation. St. Louis is not going to be good this season…period. His numbers, as I’ve projected them, are about 1500 total yards with 9 TDs…not terrible by any stretch. But comparatively speaking, his prospective value is lower than a lot more players than one would assume based on past production. Look, St. Louis will be losing A LOT this season, which means more passing, they play the 10th most difficult schedule against the run in ‘08 AND he’s missed all of training camp where he has to get acclimated to an entirely new blocking scheme. All of these things together make him a huge risk…he’ll likely perform like a 2nd rounder, but drafting him anywhere before the 4th round does not effectively balance the risk/reward equation that must be a part of any person’s fantasy draft plans. Anybody can assume certain things about players, myself included…I can have all the fancy projection models and strength of schedule rankings and assumptions and facts that I want and all of this will allow me to create what I think is an accurate list of players…but when I draft, it is more than just following a list. You win league championships by effectively mitigating risk…when you don’t do that, you will win one year and finish last the next…to remain competitive annually it is all about balancing risks.
As for Peterson…injury concerns are duly noted, but his numbers are awfully impressive. They play the easiest schedule against the run in ‘08 and he isn’t their “workhorse”, so he will get some breaks and not suffer from being run down come season’s end. We can agree to disagree on this, but please do check back in with me at season’s end so I can say “I told you so”.
I am the last person to base rankings wholly on what happens the year before…but they are a telling indicator in some cases, and that is the case with Peterson. Just so you know how serious I truly am about this, I traded away my 1st and 2nd round picks for the chance to move up to 2 to grab Peterson in one of my drafts this season (obviously, the trade included more on the backend for me, but just to give you an idea of my value for him). I hate the Vikings with all my heart, I disliked Peterson at Oklahoma (UT fan) and I am sure that he will get hurt and miss at least one game, probably two. But I have to keep emotion out of this…I trust my projections and my research, and it tells me that Peterson and Tomlinson are in a world of their own.
Sorry for the lengthy response…I do appreciate your comments very much and I totally see your point…ultimately you need to go with what works for you, but for me, I won’t have Jackson on any of my teams unless he is around in round #4…which means I won’t have him because I realistically don’t expect him to fall that far. The reason it is in this article is because the goal is to help the reader out…he shouldn’t be on yours before round 4 either because there are options out there that are more secure. But ultimately you have to decide if you are comfortable picking up someone that is sure to get you an average of 10-15 points each and every week or if you’d prefer to get someone that could put up 20 points a week, but just as easily could put up 4 or 5. It is all about risk mitigation and finding your comfort level.
August 20, 2008
Nick Eman:
I understood you were not calling Jackson a 4th rounder, my argument is that, realistically he should/would not fall that far in ANY draft. And obviously he will not fall that far now that he has reportedly returned to camp.
You expect lesser numbers for Jackson, fine, but some do not, and he is still pretty tradable, although I suppose that is league dependent. Ever since last season when nfldotcom/fantasy moved to 3 starting WR, I have noticed the value of RBs has dropped as fantasy GMs are now scrambling for WRs and are even offering up RBs like McGahee and Portis just to improve their WRs.
Apparently I was not clear enough, I was never against Peterson and am not against Peterson, I was just using him to help make my point. I hope he works out well for you. But one can pick holes in any player…Peterson…unestablished?…poor passing attack allows defenses to stack the line and play run?…no more element of surprise? If Peterson was available when I picked in the 1st round, I would have taken him but he was not.
In Jackson’s defense,
-the Rams were already brutal last season and that did not stop Jackson from playing quite strongly in his last 8 games (14.3 points per week avg in my league, HI-22, LO-5in week 17 usually not a fantasy relevant week).
-Jackson is a pass-catching back (90 receptions in 2006)
-the less than favourable schedule (different rankings depending on source) is not good but he is still pretty talented and the talented ones can ” usually” get it done, maybe Jackson’s statistical ceiling is limited but I think his floor remains the same. Two different sources I have seen suggest NE has the 3rd hardest and 5th hardest QB/Passing schedule in the league but that did not stop you from ranking him 2nd amongst QBs.
-He carried quite a hefty load in 2006 plus he carried a lighter load in 2007 so theoretically he can handle a big load and should be fresher this season
-According to reports Jackson knows the offense already having attended those offseason workout/pre-training camp events.
Peterson laid some eggs last season against
( @SF, H to Washington), so I am not sure where you get the idea that he will definitely get you at least 10 points per week, whereas Jackson will not, Peterson still has tough games mixed in, not even Tomlinson got 10 or more every week last season.
Anyways, I hope both Peterson and Jackson do well, someone else can get your “I told you so” I am not against Peterson, I was just supporting Jackson.
I do not mind your lengthy reply at all, I am for free and open communication, I do not like to stifle people. While I believe in efficient communication, I do not think people should feel guilty for having a lot to say.
Peace!