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August 28, 2008

Why No Love For the Big Donkey?

Adam Dunn provokes resentment from all sides of the baseball divide — from old-schoolers like Joe Morgan to Moneyball-loving, computer nerds like J.P. Ricciardi. Morgan once chastised him on ESPN for hitting 40 home runs in 2006 but "only" having 92 RBIs, as if it was Dunn's fault there was hardly anyone on base for him while he was slugging his butt off. Ricciardi recently made a total fool of himself on a Toronto radio station for claiming that Dunn doesn't like baseball that much so he wasn't interested in acquiring him, despite the fact that if his anemic Blue Jay team acquired Micah Owings, he'd be more use to the team as a slugger than a pitcher.

The prosecution's case against Dunn is pretty straightforward. He strikes out a lot, his batting average is dreadful, he chokes with men on base, and he can't field.

No one is disputing Dunn strikes out a ton. He's a fixture around the top of the strikeout list every year. He's in his eighth year in the league and he's struck out 1,223 times in 3,763 ABs — quite a record.

His career batting average is an extremely pedestrian .247. Whether this is a big negative depends on your point of view as to how important batting average is. Old schoolers love it. Personally, I think it's the second worst statistic in baseball in terms of measuring worth — using wins to measure a pitcher being the absolute worst.

Dunn is possibly the worst outfielder in the National League. Even his mother covers her eyes when he's fielding. He's a stereotypical DH, but is marooned in the wrong league.

The "choking" accusation is the one that really hurts Dunn's reputation, and will, without doubt, affect his pay check this offseason when he's a free agent. Jon Heyman on SI.com recently tagged Dunn as "rarely coming through in the clutch" and worth "J.D. Drew money." Quite an insult considering Drew has only twice hit more than 20 home runs in a 10-year career and — to use old-school statistics to bash an old-school writer — only once has driven in 100 runs, mainly because, it has to be said, he's constantly on the DL, unlike that big choker Dunn.

Is Dunn a choker as Heyman and others claim? Does he prefer glorious solo shots so he can preen around the bases basking in singular glory or is he a team guy who likes a homo-erotic butt slap around home plate after a 450-foot 3-run homer?

What is "clutch", anyway? Is it a bases empty, 2-out, single in the bottom of the ninth when your team is 3 runs down, or is it a bases loaded, 0-2 count, home run when you're 12-0 up? No one has truly defined "clutch" except Joe Buck, who insists clutch is any famous player, except Alex Rodriguez, and anyone who wears a Red Sox uniform.

As I believe "clutch" is simply a lazy journalistic term that covers only "SportsCenter" highlight reel plays, I will address the issue of whether Dunn hits better, worse, or the same as his career average with RISP.

Dunn has been in the league long enough to draw some reasonable conclusions from his career numbers, which are reproduced below. The first obvious conclusion is that his bases empty numbers are almost a replication of his career numbers, with a slight dip in OBP. Dunn has hit 152 solo home runs in his career, more than with runners on base by a good margin, but he's had 2,128 ABs in that situation, 500 more ABs than with runners on.

Adam Dunn Career Numbers

RISP, 2 out shows a dip from the career average in every category except OBP, a nice tool for the knockers who claim that hitters like Dunn prefer to walk than take the responsibility of driving in the runner(s).

Dunn has been walked a staggering 300 times in 938 ABs with RISP. However, this isn't surprising given that a succession of managers in Cincinnati have seen fit to bat him at sixth or even seventh in the lineup, giving pitchers the ideal opportunity to either IBB him or pitch carefully around him. Dangerous hitters like Dunn can't hit at the bottom of the lineup without risking being pitched around, but Dusty Baker and others don't like "clogging the bases" with big guys. He should be hitting second or third in a NL lineup.

The theory that Dunn gets nothing to hit with RISP gets more credence once the bases loaded figures are examined. Batting average sees a 30-point spike, OBP drops, and slugging/OPS rises 100 points. He also walks about as much as he does with bases empty and below his career numbers.

With a man on third and less than 2 outs, the figures show another spike from the career norm. In just 179 career ABs in this situation, Dunn has driven in 135 non-choking RBI's.

Adam Dunn Career Numbers

In comparison with Mister Clutch himself, David Ortiz, Dunn is a notch below, but the numbers indicate he's quite prepared to shorten his swing or sac fly when the situation calls for it.

Overall, these aren't the numbers of a choker, but the likes of Joe Morgan, a succession of Reds beat writers, and Jon Heyman are far too important to waste their time doing a bit of research to substantiate their dubious claims. Dunn has a number of holes in his game that are well-documented, but not being a "clutch" hitter isn't one of them.

Dunn is a free agent this offseason. He should move to the AL, where he can DH. His career DH numbers, admittedly a very small sample size of 36 ABs, are significantly better than his career numbers. Not every player can adapt to DHing, and Dunn may be one who can't, but he'd be a perfect fit at Yankee Stadium, where the short porch to RF would be very inviting. At 28 and in today's fiscal climate, he's worth $15 million a year of any GMs money.

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CONTEST! To celebrate 10 years online, we are giving away $150 in prizes. Use the secret word below in the contest entry form for a chance to win! Full details on our SC 10th Anniversary Contest page.

Today's secret word: Donkey

Posted by Mike Round at 11:18 AM | Comments (1)

August 27, 2008

2008 Giants Sure to Leave Fans Blue

It's late August. It's that time of year when NFL fans come out of hibernation and return from their caves. They begin to salivate at the mere sight of training camp footage on television and of course those ultimately frivolous preseason games. America can't wait to have their football back.

Unless, of course, you're a New York Giants fan.

As a Big Blue supporter, I know I will probably never again in my life see anything like what the G-Men went through last January and February. We witnessed our maddeningly inconsistent quarterback successfully play rope-a-dope with the entire league, and put one over on the New England Perfects in the Super Bowl. Overcoming their own flaws (of which there were many), injuries, and a murderers' row of playoff opponents, the success of the 2007 Giants may well be coming to a theater near you right about the same time that Boise State movie comes out.

So pardon me if I wanted to bask in the glow of last year's legacy and that glorious postseason just a little bit longer. After all, once that Thursday night opener against the Redskins kicks off, that all gets pushed aside and buried underneath each new play and subplot of 2008. Can't they just re-air all of last year's games all over again instead?

If history is any indicator, 2008 will probably not be kind to Big Blue. The '87 Giants missed the playoffs after the '86 Giants dominated the league. The '91 Giants lost coach Bill Parcells to "retirement" and lost their way, instead finding nothing but their living room couch and TV set in January. The 2001 Giants, who had just lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens, also missed out on the postseason the following year, instead watching the aforementioned Patriots dynasty being born.

Last year's '07 team was not a great team. They played three, maybe four great games down the stretch and essentially exploited the NFL's single-elimination playoff system for all it was worth. They went 10-6, for God's sake. Only one other Super Bowl-winning team had a record that poor, and that team had Joe Montana and Jerry Rice on it, so they probably knew they could afford a little regular season malaise.

Since 2005, the Giants have been a steady consistent team although never producing dominant or breakout regular season results. They have made the playoffs three consecutive years now, although only reaching 11 wins once and they have never had a first-round bye. NFC East rivals Philly and Dallas both have had much more dominant teams for longer periods of time in the decade. Their fans must be losing their minds wondering how the Giants, with results like those, could have one more Super Bowl ring than either of them. Granted, as much fun as that is for me to point out, the bottom line is that it is highly unlikely that they will suddenly become realistic title contenders even with the championship experience.

The most pressing issue, however, is the gradual leaking of talent this franchise has seen just in the offseason alone. After 2006, the Giants lost Tiki Barber and that appeared to be a death blow at the time, little did we know. Gone are Tiki Barber, Jeremy Shockey, and Michael Strahan. Now Osi Umenyiora is out for the season, so the team threw money at Strahan to return, only to hear a swift but understandable "thanks, but no thanks" reply from Mr. Gaptooth himself. Suddenly, the identity of the franchise comes into question. Who is the face of the Giants this year? Is it really Eli Manning? Brandon Jacobs? Plaxico Burress? Amani Toomer? Who else is left?

So us Giants fans will now have to deal with a season in which both of last year's starting defensive ends — the main reason the New York defense wrecked Tom Brady seven months ago — have to be replaced.

On offense, Shockey finally got his trade, and for less than stellar value in return. Having seen how much it infuriated Shockey when his ankle broke that Monday night home game against Washington, and knowing how much it killed him through the playoffs and Super Bowl to have to watch from afar, it killed me just as much to know he would not get another shot at a Super Bowl for New York.

Now all those who fell in love with folk-hero backup tight end Kevin Boss last season can eat their hearts out, at least until they realize he is merely Kevin Boss. He cannot be expected to produce anywhere near the rate Shockey did.

So in effect, both sides of the ball will be weakened significantly in 2008. Eli Manning, a hero all offseason, will go back to putting up the same 24 TD 20 INT numbers and being the scourge of New Yorkers once he throws 4 red zone interceptions in an awful home loss to the 49ers in Week 7, or something to that effect.

Of course, as the fans of the world champs, we are asking for no one's pity, just perspective. While we will forever treasure the old highlights of last year, we can no longer stay married to them once the season starts. Even if the 2008 Giants are most likely not headed in the direction of a dynasty, it is time to move on and write a new book on a new season, a book that won't be nearly as hard to put down.

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Today's secret word: Giants

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:15 AM | Comments (4)

August 26, 2008

Why Georgia Should Not Be Ranked No. 1

Unless I'm mistaken, the preseason BCS rankings are supposed to be a formulaic listing of which teams are most likely to win the next year's college football national championship. So then why is it the BCS came out with a top 25 list that has Georgia at the top? Either the computers have gone haywire, or that's a real jab in the side of every other college program in the nation.

I think anyone who loses one of the most accurate kickers in recent college football history, gets out-rushed in over half of their divisional games, and barely squeaks by Troy shouldn't be given half the respect the University of Georgia has been given this offseason.

The University of Georgia will not know what to do with a bulls-eye as big as the one the BCS has painted on their backs. Riding the wave of their win over Hawaii, sportswriters all over the country are tabbing Georgia as something special next year. Some going so far as to project Georgia to win this year's title. Everyone will look to give them their best shot, including a handful of teams with payback on their minds. And now the Troys on UGA's schedule have something even more to play for.

Also, their schedule is not the cakewalk it was last season. In 2007, Georgia only played four ranked teams on their way to their bowl game against their highest-ranked opponent, an inflated No. 10 Hawaii. This year, half their games are against ranked teams with the lowest-ranked being Alabama, a team that out-rushed them in their Sept. 22nd meeting and that they only beat by three.

And one of those six ranked teams is Florida. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that Urban Meyer has had that celebratory dance from last year on repeat in the weight room VCR. Florida was absolutely embarrassed in that game, and revenge — plus an offense led by a pissed-off Tim Tebow — will come into Jacksonville after a home game against Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will be coming off a physically-demanding road game against LSU. Back-to-back losses are to be expected.

It might sound a little strange at first, but Georgia really didn't have too many big wins last year, and they were consistently, well, inconsistent. They had to go to overtime to take Alabama, they struggled to put away Troy and Kentucky, and needed a fumble recovery and last-second field goal to defeat Vanderbilt. Too much has been made about their wins over Florida's suspect defense, an unpredictable Auburn team, and a completely overmatched Hawaii team. For a team where three of its games came down to four points or less, a clutch kicker is a necessity.

Over the course of next season, I see Georgia coming out the gate and winning their first two games against lowly Georgia Southern and Central Michigan and handling South Carolina. But a cross-country trip to Arizona State on Sept. 20th might give Georgia their first loss of the season and leave them vulnerable to a loss the following week against Alabama at home. At a predicted 3-1, the Bulldogs then get a week off to rest up for four straight weeks against Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU, and Florida. I see the Bulldogs splitting those games, losing to LSU and Florida. Then there's two road games against Kentucky and Auburn which the Bulldogs should again split and an easy season-ending game against Georgia Tech. That's 7-5 at the end of the season and a trip to the Fill-in-the-Blank Bowl on New Year's Day.

Happy holidays, Bulldogs. It's going to be a long season.

Posted by Ryan Day at 11:10 AM | Comments (17)

The PGA's FedEx Cup Conundrum

The FedEx Cup is in its second year of existence. It was implemented last season on the PGA Tour as part of an effort to give the season — excluding the majors — some cohesiveness and meaning. Additionally, it sought to make golf relevant at the beginning of football season and the stretch run of baseball by having four huge purse events and giving away $35 million in series bonus money.

Last year, the structure of the FedEx Cup was rigid. Only three players outside of the top 30 at the start of the playoffs found their way into the big money Tour Championship — and a significant share of the FedEx bonus pool. Rich Beem became the poster child for the lack of mobility. Having played well in both the Barclays and the Deutsche Bank Championship, Beem's starting position in the FedEx Cup playoffs prevented him from getting into the BMW Championship in Chicago.

As it turned out, the points structure relied too much on positioning before the Playoffs. Tiger Woods won two of four playoff events, skipped the Barclays, and won the inaugural FedEx Cup (which has still has not been kissed in public) going away from the field.

The players on the B and C-list complained and the Tour responded by making the playoff structure more volatile. The reset in points that occurs after the 33 regular season events was narrowed so that there were fewer points between places going into the four event playoff. The points awarded for each playoff event had 2000 added to them at each place for this season — earning 300 points last year would get you 2300 this year.

The idea behind this was to make it possible for someone like Beem to get into more events. After all, the final two events in the FedEx Cup have no cut and dramatically smaller fields — 70 and 30 players, respectively. That means that mediocre players that could meander their way into these events by virtue of two great weeks in the Barclays and Deutsche Bank Championship would be getting a payday that would go a long way in guaranteeing their playing rights for next season.

With bated breath, the Tour waited for the Barclays to unfold and see how it shook out in the standings. Vijay Singh eventually won the Barclays in a playoff over Sergio Garcia and Kevin Sutherland. The outcome turned out to be a perfect example of volatility at play.

Vijay suddenly propelled from seventh place to first in the standings. Certainly, that could not offend anyone. With two wins this season, Singh deserves to be a contender for the $10 million Cup prize.

Sergio Garcia vaulted from 12th to second. That's not that bad, either.

But, Kevin Sutherland hopped — nay, leaped — from 57th to third. He has a legitimate opportunity to get into the Tour Championship and, right now, is a contender to win the FedEx Cup. Sutherland has had a decent season, including three other top-10s, but certainly is not in conversation as the best player on Tour.

Sutherland is the poster child, then, for the problem with the FedEx Cup 2.0. If he stays hot for the next three weeks — admittedly, unlikely — Sutherland could win $10 million. He would be set for life and it would make his career. He could do so by having a regular season in which he basically went unnoticed by every golf fan and member of the media. That, in effect, would be the biggest nightmare of the PGA Tour. A total unknown winning the FedEx Cup could invalidate the concept overnight. It would leave fans wondering what in the world the point is of the FedEx Cup if a player with one career win (2002 Accenture Match Play) could take such a huge prize.

The best players on Tour would revolt knowing that someone like Sutherland's career could be made with a mediocre season and four good weeks in August and September. Vijay Singh's nine win season in 2004 would be matched in four tournaments. The PGA Tour elite feel that they have played their way into the opportunities they enjoy, such as World Golf Championship events, limited field tournaments, and other bonuses. They feel that the threshold to earn a big payday should be much higher than what is facing Sutherland right now.

The anti-Sutherland would be Padraig Harrington. Arguably the PGA Tour Player of the Year, Harrington missed the cut at the Barclays. He went from fourth to 23rd and is in real danger of missing the Tour Championship. Top-tier players would question how in the world that a guy like Harrington could not be featured in the FedEx Cup finale.

Still, Sutherland also represents what the Tour wanted in creating real volatility in the playoff events. The Tour did this with the hope of giving more players a realistic chance to win the FedEx Cup. It also did it with the intent of making the first three Playoff events more meaningful than focusing on the players at the bottom, being cut, instead of the players charging for the top of the standings.

That clearly happened on Sunday with the final results of the Barclays. Not only did Sutherland move up 54 places, but Matt Goggin moved up 50 places to 26th. Kevin Streelman went from 102nd to 37th. All of those moves present opportunities for the Tour to promote these players and for fans to get to know their talents better.

It also made the Barclays more relevant — with or without Tiger — because serious moves in the standings could be made regardless of who is, or isn't, in the field. Last year, Tiger could have skipped the first two of the FedEx Cup events and still won. This year, the wounded Tiger is now in 15th place after entering the Playoffs at No. 1. If Woods experiences an amazing recovery in the next few weeks, he may not be in the Tour Championship field.

In effect, FedEx Cup 2.0 faces an equal set of challenges as last year's rendition. The challenges are from the other side of the looking glass, though. Last year, the format favored the rich and best players and entitled them to a $35 million money grab. This year, that is still mostly true, but will give some scrubs an opportunity at money they may not deserve and a chance to invalidate a format with a single stroke.

Through making the changes it did from one season to the next, the Tour has proven that the FedEx Cup lacks identity. The Tour has to decide whether the intent of the FedEx Cup is to identify the best player of the entire Tour season, or to provide fans and sponsors with a $63 million thrill ride through four weeks to end the summer. Last year, it would appear the former. This year, it would appear the tour seeks the thrill ride.

It must decide, though, and quickly. In an attempt to promote the meaning of the FedEx Cup and promote participation, the PGA Tour convinced several of the bodies behind the major championships to stake invitations to majors based upon the FedEx Cup standings. The top 30 players at season's end get invitations to both the Masters and U.S. Open. Spots like that traditionally had gone to the best of the money list — arguably the best measure available of season-long productivity.

With the new volatility in the standings, though, players could quickly have their good season erased and invitations to majors revoked within four weeks. Though this will likely not happen to more than a handful of players, the majors are much more important to the game than the FedEx Cup. The Tour should plan so accordingly and return to the money list standard for entrance into the majors.

The best outcome for the FedEx Cup is to treat it like a sweepstakes. It addresses the original goals of the FedEx Cup without negatively impacting the careers of players working hard to improve and contend in major championships.

Certainly, $10 million is a lot of money and should go to a deserving winner. But, at the same time, a rigid structure will defeat the purpose of the FedEx Cup and likely lead to the Cup remaining in Tiger Woods' possession for years to come. With only two players other than Woods having won the Player of the Year award in the last decade, it would seem ridiculous to use the FedEx Cup as a coronation ceremony for the best player in the world. In the interest of the Tour, it is better to give the other "these guys" a chance to make a name for themselves and steal some of the spotlight — or, at worst, make Tiger earn his $10 million prize.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 11:09 AM | Comments (1)

August 25, 2008

AL Wild Card Wild Cards

Also see: NL Wild Card Wild Cards

The temperature will surely cool down as August turns into September, but as usual, the baseball playoff races are beginning to heat up. Since a wild card team has advanced to the World Series in every year since 2002, this season's AL wild card winner could very easily be the benefactor of the American League victory in the All-Star Game.

Just like we did last week with the NL wild card race, today we'll examine the chase for the AL wild card and examine some possible wild cards each team has.

Boston Red Sox

(Lead AL wild card race)

Why they can win: Consistency

This 2008 Boston Red Sox team has no real glaring weakness. They rank in the top five in nearly every hitting statistic and have the best team batting average in all of baseball. Even trading away their best hitter in Manny Ramirez hasn't set this team back because new left fielder Jason Bay has hit .347 with 4 home runs in his 18 games with the Sox.

Boston remains equally as consistent when they are not up to bat, ranking sixth in the AL in ERA and tied for fifth in the league in fielding percentage. Jonathan Papelbon is third in the league in saves, Josh Beckett is fifth in strikeouts, and Daisuke Matsuzaka would be in the top five in ERA if he had enough innings pitched, and if Dice-K can stay healthy the remainder of the season, he will get enough to qualify.

Boston's depth has given them the ability to avoid prolonged losing streaks and allowed them to stay near the top of the standings all season long.

Wild card: Injuries

Boston has been banged up all season, and their situation certainly isn't improving. Josh Beckett skipped his last start with numbness in his ring and pinkie finger on his throwing hand. Tim Wakefield hasn't pitched since August 6th and could still be another week away from returning. Julio Lugo has been out since straining his quad on July 11th.

And it's not as if the injury bug has bitten this team only recently. Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, Mike Timlin, Alex Cora, Sean Casey, Brandon Moss, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, Bartolo Colon, Julio Lugo, and Tim Wakefield have all spent time on the DL this season.

Boston may have the talent the repeat as World Series champions. The question is whether or not that talent will be at Terry Francona's disposal when it matters most.

Chicago White Sox

(Lead AL Central; trail Boston by .5 game for AL wild card)

Why they can win: Pitching

Boston may have the best 1-2 punch in the American League with Beckett and Dice-K, but the White Sox have the most pitching depth. They already have four different starting pitchers with at least 10 wins. Their bullpen has no gaping holes, and is backed up by one of the top closers in baseball in Bobby Jenks.

Their solid pitching staff keeps them in every game they play in, and the White Sox' power at the plate is usually enough to put them over the top. Coming into this week, the South Siders have hit 34 more home runs than the second best team in the American League. That combination of pitching and power is usually the recipe for success in October.

Wild card: Manager

Ozzie Guillen is the definition of a wild card. You have no idea what he is going to say on any given day. Most of the time, his team responds favorably to his tirades, but eventually, his act is going to wear out. And look out when it does.

Everything Guillen says is already heavily scrutinized, and ESPN surely isn't going shy away from leading "SportsCenter" with his next bonehead comment. The White Sox players have sat by and watched Ozzie pull his foot out of his mouth countless times in the past few seasons, but when you skate on ice as thin as Guillen does, it's just a matter of time before the bottom falls out.

Team chemistry basically propelled the Rockies to the fall classic last year. Ozzie is always one thoughtless quote away from throwing all of his team's chemistry down the drain.

Minnesota Twins

(Trail Boston by 1 game for AL Wild Card; trail Chicago by .5 game in AL Central)

Why they can win: History

Most teams on this list have one real strong suit that they can go to in a pinch. They either have great pitching, great hitting, or a solid enough combination of both to win games. Not the Twins. They're not gonna blow you away under any circumstance.

Sure, the Twins are third in the AL in batting average, but they rank ninth in slugging percentage and 13th in home runs. It's basically a team of slap hitters.

Well, surely with all the singles the Twins accumulate, they must steal a lot of bases to manufacture runs, right? Wrong. The Twins rank just seventh in the American league in stolen bases and have been caught stealing more than every team except Tampa Bay, and the Rays have 50 more stolen bases to their credit.

The Twins' pitching staff is just as underwhelming as their lineup. They have just the seventh-best ERA in the league. They have only one pitcher who has struck out 100 batters (Scott Baker's 107 Ks is good for 23 in the American League).

So how does this team have 74 wins already? Because they are the Twins, that's how. This is the same Twins team that has made the postseason four of the last six seasons (only the Red Sox have been more times in that span, reaching the postseason five of the last six years). It's the same Twins team that overachieves every season, despite the fact that their roster is overhauled each offseason because they can't afford to keep their talented vets (see: Santana, Johan and Hunter, Torii). It's the same Twins team that catches fire like clockwork around this time every season.

And it's the same Twins team that has played the same brand of fundamentally sound baseball since Ron Gardenhire took over in 2002. They throw strikes, put the ball in play, sacrifice runners over, come up with clutch hits, and more often than not, have teams with double the payroll looking up at them in the standings when it's all said and done.

Wild card: Talent

Before I get all Larry Brown on you about this team playing the right way, allow me to point out that it doesn't really matter that they play the right way when they aren't playing it at a high level. I love the way the Twins play the game, but I can't in good conscience pick them to make the playoffs when I compare their roster side-by-side to the other two teams on this list.

Sure, history tells me that the Twins can get catch either of the Sox's because they seem to do it every year. But I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, and my gut tells me that this group simply isn't good enough to beat contending teams, even if I do like the way they play.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:48 AM | Comments (0)

Running With Heavy Burdens in Dark Shadows

If you're a Team USA supporter who watched the 2008 Summer Olympic Games, the biggest story has to be some guy named Michael Phelps from Towson, MD (have you heard of him lately?) winning the most gold medals of any athlete in a single Olympics.

The second biggest story, however, could be up for debate. Some can say it's the success of USA gymnastics with Nastia Liukin and Shawn Johnson leading Team USA to a silver medal and both winning multiple individual medals, including gold, as well as the surprising bronze by a men's team with a bunch of no-names.

Others will say that it's USA basketball and the "Redeem Team" that has blasted their way through the competition. But considering the tradition of the sport in this country, the second biggest story has to be the faltering of marquee U.S. athletes in marquee events in track and field, only showing the dénouement of a sport and a nation that has been rocked by scandal and misfortunes ever since a successful campaign in Athens in 2004.

Since their conquest in Athens, some of the most revered athletes of USA Track have been rocked by doping allegations and findings that have been devastating. Tim Montgomery and Justin Gatlin, both former world record holders in the 100 meters, were banned for the use of performance-enhancing drugs. Antonio Pettigrew, who was part of the 4x400 relay gold medal-winning team in Sydney, admitted to doping as part of plea deal in the case against coach Trevor Graham, whose figure has been cast as the towering shadow over the sport in America. Pettigrew and the rest of the gold medal relay team, including Michael Johnson, returned their gold medals from their Sydney triumph.

The most ominous figure in this debacle? Track and field icon Marion Jones, for years the poster girl for the sport. After her ex-husband and training partner C.J. Hunter was indicated in the BALCO scandal, and later her relationship with Montgomery, suspicions increased towards Jones. After initially denying all allegations that she took performance-enhancing drugs, Jones tearfully admitted in October 2007 that she lied to federal investigators in the BALCO case and was promptly stripped of all five medals she won while competing in the Sydney Olympics. Embarrassment was brought to the forefront and dealt a blow to the track federation less than 10 months from the 2008 Summer Games that they have never fully recovered from.

Looking at the final medal count, USA track and field has 23 medals; seven gold, five medals ahead of their closest competitor, Russia. But these Olympics for track and field have been less about the medals that have been won, but more about the opportunities that have been squandered. Sure, the sweeps by the men in the 400 distance, regular and hurdles, were great stories. Dawn Harper coming from nowhere to win the 100 meter hurdles, and Stephanie Brown Trafton winning the women's discus, Sheena Tosta with a silver medal in the 400-meter hurdles, Jennifer Stuczynski capturing the silver medal in women's pole vault, Walter Dix with bronze medals in the 100 and 200 meters and the two Davids, Payne and Oliver, with silver and bronze, respectively, in the 100-meter hurdles, are all great stories that can lift the morale. However, these Olympics have been more about the missed opportunities and devastating losses.

Let's see. Where do we start?

Tyson Gay, arguably the poster boy for these Olympics for Team USA, started things off by not even qualifying for the 100-meter final after being the world champion in the event. American women Lauryn Williams, Muna Lee, and Torrie Edwards were shut out of medals in the 100 meters, overwhelmed by a Jamaican sweep. Allyson Felix, who finished with silver in the 200 meters in Athens and was the world champion in this event, was subdued once again in the second slot on the podium by Jamaica's Veronica Campbell-Brown, after she was expected to be the favorite.

Sanya Richards, widely considered the favorite in the women's 400 meters, had what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the home stretch, before tightening up and finishing third and showing obvious disappointment. Bernard Lagat, who became a U.S. citizen after running for his native Kenya and silver medalist from Athens, failed to even qualify for the 1,500-meter run this time around. In the 5,000 meters, he was with the lead pack for most of the race, but fell to fifth at the finish.

Terrence Trammell, who won the silver medal in the 110-meter hurdles in Athens, pulled out of the race in qualifying with an injury. This was after defending Olympic champion Liu Xiang of China pulled out with a heel injury in qualifying, as well. If the door was open for Trammell with Liu pulling out of the race, it was slammed back in his face when his own injury occurred. Deena Kastor, who won the bronze in marathon in Athens, pulled out of the race at the 5K mark with a foot injury.

But possibly the most gut-wrenching story of all the individual failures was LoLo Jones, who was cruising to sure victory in the 100-meter hurdles when she clipped the ninth of 10 hurdles and fell all the way to seventh place. The obvious disappointment and pain that Jones displayed while kneeling on the track after the race showed only a fraction of what was to come.

If there was a race that showed the significance of how excruciating the campaign at the Bird's Nest was for USA track and field, it would have the be the disasters in the 4x100 meters relays for both the men and the women. For the men, Tyson Gay and Darwin Patton mishandled the baton exchange going in the final leg in the qualifying rounds and the baton fell to the track, squashing any chance of the U.S. men to regain gold in the relay they dominated for so long in Olympic competition. It was the third time since 1996 that the U.S. men failed to win gold in their signature relay. To top it off, the Jamaicans, led by the new star on the world stage, the electrifying Usain Bolt, broke the 16-year-old world record in the 4x100 relay set by the United States in Barcelona after Bolt crushed his own record in the 100 meters and Michael Johnson's in the 200 meters, a record once thought to be unbreakable.

For the U.S. women, it became the missed opportunity for the third straight Olympiad. Since 1996, the women have not won gold in 4x100 relay, winning bronze in Sydney and being disqualified for a dropped baton in Athens. But history repeated itself; as with the men, the final exchange was botched. Torrie Edwards placed the baton in Lauryn Williams hand one second and a millisecond later, it was on the ground in almost the same spot as their compatriots. The expression on Edwards and more importantly Williams' face, who for the second straight Olympics was part of a botched baton exchange, told the entire story. No words needed to be spoken, the agony said it all. The baton exchange, much like the free throw in basketball, is one of the few fundamentals in the sport that is so minuscule, yet so important that is rarely practiced and when not properly executed, often leads to defeat.

Want a cherry on top? No American did not medal in any jump event. None. In a tradition that has seen champions like Dick Fosbury, Bob Beamon, Carl Lewis, Jackie Joyner-Kersee, Mike Powell, Charles Austin Joe Greene, and Dwight Phillips, it is a severe disappointment, especially after the apex when the American men swept the jump events in Atlanta.

Rewind to 1992 in Barcelona, Spain, quite possibly the greatest performance by a country in the Olympics. USA track and field walked away with a whopping 30 medals, including 12 gold. The next closest team in the standings was the Unified Team, comprised of Russia and former Soviet republics. The most notable performance the men's 4x100 relay team that won their race in dominating fashion in 37.40, a world record that still stands today. Carl Lewis won his third gold medal in the long jump and led a U.S medal sweep that included world record holder Mike Powell and Joe Greene. On the women's side, Gail Devers and Gwen Torrence took gold in the 100 and 200 meters, respectively, and Torrence anchored a team that won the women's 4x100 relay. All-time great Jackie Joyner-Kersee repeated as heptathlon Olympic champion. The outstanding performance by the U.S. in Barcelona would clearly lead to great momentum heading into the next Olympiad to be held on home soil in Atlanta in 1996.

With more countries competing in the 1996 Olympics on U.S. soil, USA track and field garnered 23 medals, including 13 gold. The star of the track was clearly Michael Johnson, won ran an incredible time of 19.32 in the 200 meters. Carl Lewis won his fourth straight Olympic Gold in the long jump as the Americans won gold in the four major field events: all three jump events and shot put. Gail Devers repeated as the 100-meter gold medalist and the U.S. women sprint relays put on great performances, including the unforgettable shot of Atlanta home girl Gwen Torrence capping the Games in track and field, anchoring the 4x100 relay by lifting her arms to the sky in triumph as she crossed the finish line. It was also in this Olympics that the U.S. men were defeated in the 4x100 relay by Canada, led by 100-meter Olympic champion Donovan Bailey, for the first time ever in an Olympic final. However, with the popularity of Johnson's performance in Atlanta, USA track and field, who would soon be taken over by Craig Masback as CEO, seemed primed for a meteoric rise.

Twelve years later and after at least seven medals were wiped off the board for doping violations in Sydney amid constant speculation, track and field had some promising prospects for the future with sprinters Gatlin, Shawn Crawford, and Bernard Williams in Athens. After faltering in Barcelona and Atlanta, American men ascended back to the top of the podium with triumphs by Maurice Greene and Gatlin in the 100 meters. With the emergence of college stars such as Gay, Xavier Carter, and Wallace Spearmon, Jr., the U.S. men looked to keep their strong performances in the sprint events, except no one told the Jamaicans.

Usain Bolt, who came from nowhere to break the 100-meter world record in May, shot to the top of list of contenders for Beijing next to his countryman and former world record holder Asafa Powell. With Bolt's breathtaking performances in the sprints and the Jamaican men cruising to the gold in the 400-meter relay, the sprint title has been wrestled with great force to the island of gold and green, fitting enough. And the U.S. has let it go with a painful whimper, still licking its wounds from scandal, injury, and misfortune.

As for the women, the Jamaicans again have repeated the feats of their male counterparts. Twelve years after Deon Hemmings became the first Jamaican woman to win gold at the Olympics, the sweep in the 100 meters that left the American trio of Williams, Lee, and Edwards on the outside, coupled by Veronica Campbell-Brown haunting the dreams of Allyson Felix in the 200 yet again and the baton fiascos of Beijing, left USA Track 0-for-6 in the sprint events (men's and women's 100, 200, and 4x100-meter relays) for the first time in a Games not boycotted by the USOC. Think that heads of USA track and field are happy? Not one bit. CEO Doug Logan said in his blog that fiascos like the baton drops are viewed by fans as "reflective of a lack of preparation, lack of professionalism, and of leadership."

Bryan Clay may have helped salvage some dignity in the field events by continuing the tradition of American champions in the Olympic decathlon. With the men's 4x400-meter relay team blowing away the field and Sanya Richards with an epic kick in the home stretch to bring home the gold for the women's 4x400 relay team, it takes a little bit of the sting out the rap from reality. Twenty-three medals are nothing to sneeze at, especially when you have five more medals than closest country, Russia, competing in that sport. But if performances could have lived up to expectations without the disappointments and mistakes, it's quite possibly that, as predicted, this could have been the greatest medal performance by a U.S. track and field team in history.

The Bird's Nest could have been painted red white and blue; instead it has been splashed by the world's new superpower in sprinting, an island bathed in the colors of green and gold. Taking nothing away from Bolt, Campbell-Brown, Shelly Ann Fraser, and the rest of Jamaican contingent as they have performed magnificently during these Olympics, but it's as simple as the following. USA track and field has taken a sharp turn on the downslope in sprinting. That might work for other prominent countries, but for a country that provided sprinting greats such as the legendary Jesse Owens, Tommie Agee, John Carlos, Carl Lewis, Michael Johnson, Maurice Green, Wilma Rudolph, Florence Griffith-Joyner, and Gail Devers, mediocrity in sprints will just not cut it.

You could liken the downfall of Americans in these Olympics to the plight of USA basketball in Athens. After an embarrassing loss in the 2002 World Championships and a disappointing bronze medal in the 2004 Olympics, Jerry Colangelo assumed control of the basketball program, putting in plan a three-year commitment, a coach with a great reputation in Mike Krzyzewski, and a dedication to reclaim the top spot in the world in international play. The reason given for the stiffer competition was the adage of "the rest of the world has gotten better." That mattered none to Colangelo as the goal was taking back the gold in Beijing for 2008. In track, the rest of world has progressively gotten better, but it should matter not to USA track and field athletes. An extensive rebuilding of the program — more importantly, the sprint program — must be put in place, if for nothing else to keep up with the flourishing Jamaican success.

Seems like the same will go on at USA track and field headquarters. CEO Logan went on to say on Friday: "Dropping a baton isn't bad luck, it's bad execution. Responsibility for the relay debacle lies with many people and many groups, from administration to coaches to athletes. That's why, when these Games are completed, we will conduct a comprehensive review of all our programs."

The bans of Marion Jones, Montgomery, and Gatlin loom large over the sport and the disappointments of Beijing, which could have made for a spectacular showing, adds to the baggage that drags Team USA down. Stories such as Harper, Dix, Oliver, Payne, and Merritt are great for the future and competition for the team, but the marquee athletes who were so good in the clutch in the past are now gouged by so much. It will take a lot for USA track and field to rid themselves of the stigma and bothersome stench of doping and the BALCO scandal and another four years of hard work, so when it comes with the chance of having phenomenal Games across the pond in London in 2012, the runners won't drop the baton this time.

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Today's secret word: Track

Posted by Brian Cox at 11:00 AM | Comments (1)

August 22, 2008

The Secrets to Fantasy Football Success

I once had the greatest year in fantasy football history. At the time, we picked the order out of a hat. I ended up drawing the number one pick. I wasn't entirely happy with the first overall pick, as I've never been a fan of only getting one of the top 24 players.

But, as Bill Belichick would say, it was what it was.

With the first overall pick, I took Rams running back Marshall Faulk. Later in the draft, I grabbed his replacement in Indianapolis, Edgerrin James. I snagged Ike Bruce with the 24th pick.

After barely squeaking out Week 1, I made the move the made my season. I picked up a little-known quarterback by the name of Kurt Warner out of the free agent pool.

The rest, as they say, is fantasy football history.

Bill Simmons says that an undefeated season is the holy grail of fantasy football. That season, I found the holy grail.

Ever since then, I've been trying to find that magic again. I've won some leagues, lost in others. So last season, I went back to the drawing board.

I didn't exactly find the holy grail, but I'm more than confident that my methods, some new and some old, work.

So for you, my loyal Sports Central readers, I share the secrets to fantasy football success.

Rule #1: Get your running backs early.

Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Tony Romo ... all fantastic players who put up huge numbers last season. But I still wouldn't draft any of them in the first round — and maybe not in the second.

Rank the NFL running backs, one through 12. When it's your turn, pick the highest rated of the group that's left. Do not even look at another position until all 12 of those running backs are gone.

Rule #2: You need starters, stupid!

It may sound dumb, but you can only start so many players at each position. What good is it to have a high-rated backup running back when you have scrap-heap quality wide receivers actually playing for you every week?

Make sure you fill out your entire starting team, with the obvious exception of the kicker (which we'll get to later), before you start drafting backups. Depth is great in the NFL, it's doesn't mean anything in fantasy football. You only get points for the guys who play every week.

Rule #3: After running backs, draft based on scoring system.

If your scoring system is friendly to quarterbacks, grab one right after your top 12 running backs are gone. If you're wide receiver-friendly, grab one of them.

You can't always draft by the book. Not every league scores the same. Make sure you fully understand the scoring system prior to your draft.

Last season, my big money league decided to implement big bonuses for long completions. This made quarterbacks the highest scoring position in the league. The players who figured this out and grabbed a good quarterback early all made the playoffs. The guys who drafted by the book all missed the playoffs.

Rule #4: Beware of the defensive rush!

Don't be the first to grab a defense, but once they start leaping off the board (and they usually do in succession) make sure you grab one before all of the good defenses are gone!

Defense/special teams can make or break you in close games. Don't be the guy stuck choosing between the Chiefs and the 49ers defense every week.

Rule #5: Kickers all suck.

Don't draft a kicker until the last round. If you draft a kicker before the last round, you're a moron.

Only draft one kicker. On the bye week, drop him and pickup another kicker. Kickers are all the same. On any given week, any given kicker can put up decent points. It's impossible to predict. So don't try. Just throw anyone out there and hope for the best.

Better to have an extra running back or wide receiver to play with anyway.

Rule #6: Be obnoxious.

Do what you can to throw everyone else in the room off their game. Taunt, laugh, make jokes (especially at the expense of the moron who drafts a kicker in the fifth round), throw people off their game. Make them feel bad about every pick they make, even if you desperately wanted the guy they took.

And always, always talk about how much you love your team. Don't ever admit your team stinks, even if it's blatantly obvious.

Rule #7) Championships are won and lost after the draft

Nobody finishes the season with the roster they drafted. Waiver wire pickups and shrewd trades can turn a poorly-drafted team into a fantasy football champion.

Most importantly, have fun!

Fantasy football is about hanging out with friends, watching football, making a little money, and drinking way too much beer. Don't take it too seriously, and remember: there's always next year!

Unless you're the guy who drafted a kicker in the sixth round. Then you might as well give up, because you're never going to win.

Ever.

Sean Crowe is a senior writer for Bleacher Report and writes a column for Sports Central every other Thursday. You can read more articles by Sean Crowe on his blog.

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Today's secret word: Fantasy

Posted by Sean Crowe at 11:15 AM | Comments (0)

August 20, 2008

Preseason Football: Time to Get Used to It

In its annual test of just how blindly NFL fans worship their favorite uniform, the league's 32 teams are in the middle of the charade of fake football in half-full stadiums at full price.

Without a doubt, watching preseason football is like eating Splenda-cookies: at first bite, they seem like the real thing, but by the time the last bite hits your gullet, none of your taste buds are fooled. But for all of the hand-wringing and complaining that comes with the NFL's preseason, maybe it's not so bad, given the alternatives. Let's consider the alternatives.

First, we have to face facts. For instance, the owners will never just "give up" the two home dates they get in the preseason. So any real option will have to keep a total of 10 home games per team. On the flip side, the players' union will want a piece of any additional revenue the owners come into as a result of changing the current structure.

The most popular solution that addresses those two rules is to add two games to the regular season, meaning each team would play 18 regular season games and two preseason games (with a few extras thrown in for the Hall of Fame game, etc.). That way the owners would still get home-gate revenue 10 times, and getting a cut of that to the players could be negotiated fairly easily.

While that sounds great on the front end, consider how it might change the season at the back end. Most NFL divisional races go down to the final few weeks. For every 2007 New England that blows away the competition by Thanksgiving, there are countless other divisions where Week 17 matters. But if teams get two more games to separate themselves from the pack, will this still be the case?

Sure, two more games could give the chasers more opportunities to catch the leaders, but more likely two more games would just give the superior teams two more games to separate from the field. How many baseball pennant races that are tight in late August fizzle into late September non-drama?

A more radical (and improbable) version of the 18-game schedule eliminates the preseason entirely. But regardless of how brutally irrelevant most preseason plays are, they serve two purposes. First, the preseason does allow scouts, general managers, and other talent evaluators to take a look at players coming from off the radar. This benefits the players union, as it opens up opportunity for advancement of rank-and-file players as well as the teams, who get another look at some possible diamonds in the rough.

Secondly, the NFL preseason serves much the same purpose as when major college football programs cut a check to the Toledos, Troys, and Tennessee Techs of the world for the privilege of blasting them into oblivion. These contests where the outcome is either pre-determined or irrelevant allow teams to get used to a gameday setting without actually risking a loss that would count against them. Would you really want the first time your beloved Cowboys took the field in an NFL stadium to be Week 1 against the Giants or Redskins, with that game counting the same in the standings as anything that happened in December?

So if I'm so smart, you ask, what's my solution? This may sound like a cop out, but it's time for NFL fans to accept preseason football for what it is. NFL teams have learned how to approach the preseason and so should we.

Are preseason games, with tickets prices equal to regular season games, an embarrassing grab for season-ticket-holders' wallets? Of course. But those two games represent 20% of the cost of a season ticket. If these games were to be eliminated, owners would certainly tack that cost on to regular season prices. And while season-ticket-holders might not enjoy swallowing a 20% increase in the cost of regular season tickets, I have a feeling most would (and I'm guessing in some years have) pony up the additional cash for their seats. Wouldn't you rather have 10 tickets for the same cost as eight, even if two of those games are meaningless?

On the personnel side, it's obviously disheartening to see your starting quarterback march out for one drive, complete four check-downs, and then put on the baseball hat. But as a fan, wouldn't you rather be disappointed by only getting a fleeting look at your franchise's cornerstone rather than an eyeful of him limping to the MRI room?

If you're really that turned off by the exhibition season, show your displeasure in the most American ways possible. Don't buy the tickets. Don't watch the games on TV. Don't call your local radio station to dissect your star running back's 7-yard, 3-carry performance. And absolutely don't place any wagers on it.

The NFL really has nothing to lose by sticking to the status quo, so preseason football will be here to stay for the foreseeable future. As fans, we need to take a step back and accept it for what it is: a tasteless, low-calorie snack that just makes us hungrier for the main course of the regular season.

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Today's secret word: Preseason

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:20 AM | Comments (0)

August 19, 2008

Why the Jets Will Improve (Not Favre)

All the incessant NFL preview talk of who will be good and who won't in the dreary (although less so in a Summer Olympic year) American sports month of August, along with preseason games that only quasi-matter for a quarter and a half, is enough for even the non-football fan to want real games to start being played immediately.

Or maybe this particular August, the incessant preview talk will come as a welcome respite for some after being inundated with approximately 245,694 straight hours of Brett Favre on ESPN over a six-week period.

Most of the preview talk you will hear or read will offer breakdowns based on position groups, new acquisitions, and intangibles. But, for the biggest changes in performance from last year to this, maybe we should look at the standings. Not the 2007 standings, though. The 2006 standings.

My personal cultivation of what I like to call "The Every Other Year Theory" originally started out with just one team around the 2004 season, with that team being the Jets. Three full seasons later, that theory has held true.

When the NFL realigned to eight divisions in 2002, one result was that less games were to be played solely based on how a team had done the year before. But for the Jets, 2002 marked the beginning of an era of consistent inconsistency. Let's look at the results:

2002: 9-7 (won AFC East, beat Colts 41-0 in playoffs)
2003: 6-10
2004: 10-6 (wild card, but were a kick away from the AFC Championship Game)
2005: 4-12
2006: 10-6 (wild card)
2007: 4-12

The main case as to why the Jets will be better will begin and end for many with No. 4. At this point, however, I can't see Favre's quasi-career year being repeated with the Jets. For one, the defenses are tougher in the AFC, and the 38-year-old gunslinger only will have had the three weeks of preseason games and four weeks of camp/practices to learn coach Eric Mangini's complicated offense.

In other words, the difference between Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, and Brett Favre may well be negligible.

However, it could well be another veteran on the wrong end of 35 that helps the Jets the most.

Over the past five seasons, Tony Richardson has blocked for running backs that have ran for 1,420, 892 (but two others with 500+), 1,750, 1,216, and 1,341 yards (plus another 800+ yard runner).

It's no secret that Thomas Jones had a disappointing, if not dreadful 2007 season. The former Bear nearly averaged carrying the ball 20 times a game, but only had 1,100 yards or about 70 a game to show for it. Richardson will almost certainly help those numbers.

Perennial Pro Bowler Alan Faneca and former Patriot Super Bowl champion Damien Woody also join an offensive line that should pave more holes for Jones.

The Jets' defense in 2006 was perhaps the most significant factor in its 10-6 season that year. Jonathan Vilma is gone from that team, but the Jets should have a decent linebacking corps, on the outside at least, with former Ohio State man-child rookie Vernon Gholston and Calvin Pace, who had a breakout year with the Cardinals last year. Former Carolina All-Pro nose tackle Kris Jenkins is another addition to the Jets' defense.

It's highly unlikely that the Jets will end up losing a first-round pick as part of the Favre deal. But, if recent history is any guide, and the Jets' other additions play their role, New York may happily part with a second-rounder next April.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

A Case For a College Football Playoff

It's definitely not the time of year to be talking about this, but hey, the better to talk about it, right? Tell me, though; have you heard the following sometime around BCS championship game time?

"We need a four-team playoff!"

"We need to have a championship game plus one!"

"WHY ISN'T THERE A PLAYOFF?! WHYYY!?"

Those were paraphrased, of course. But you have heard something along those lines right? Me, too! That's weird...

Let's see if you've heard this one:

"The BCS system is fantastic. The two best teams in the country are definitely playing tonight, no doubt!"

Well? No? Yeah, I haven't heard that one either. In fact, just reading that out loud makes you want to laugh. The BCS has become a joke. It's unfortunate and it astonishes me to no end that they haven't changed it yet.

On a positive note, the college talking heads had begun to talk about a football Final Four this past season, or at least entertained the thought of a championship game plus one.

John Swofford, the incoming BCS chairman, has said the following:

"A lot of people look at it and say ... maybe it would be better if more than two teams had the opportunity to play for the national championship."

You think? Really? How did you ever come to that conclusion? Listen to the majority of the masses? Finally, someone who understands what the fans want. But seriously, how has it taken this long? How awesome would a college football championship Final Four be? Think of how much more exciting the college season would be! As it is now, if a team loses just once in the regular season, many fans are left looking forward to the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Call me crazy, but I have an inkling that some type of money is involved here.

At least with the playoff system, four teams would have a chance at the title and this would in turn cut down on all the whining. You know, the kind that sounds like this:

"We only lost three games! We should be playing one-loss Ohio State for the title! This is highway robbery!"

Anyway, in the interests of a conclusion where there likely won't be one, let's all hope that this thing is put through. As it stands, only the Big Ten and Pac-10 are opposed to this whole thing. Again, I'm sure there's something having to do with money in their opposing it. But let's all hope that common sense prevails for once and they give they give the fans something that should have been put in place years ago. Because the last time I checked, fans are kind of important to college football.

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Today's secret word: BCS

Posted by Josh Galligan at 11:36 AM | Comments (2)

August 18, 2008

2008 Fantasy Football Preview: WR/TE

Also see: 2008 Fantasy Football Preview: QB/RB

Installment number two of your guided tour through my custom fantasy football draft rankings highlights those who make their names catching the balls, the wide receivers and tight ends. While these players typically aren't selected quite as high as those who garnered attention in the first of these three fantasy football preview pieces (QBs and RBs), they are every bit as important when faced with the prospect of putting together a championship fantasy football team.

In general, I wouldn't recommend selecting a WR until midway through the second round at the very earliest, and TEs can usually wait until at least round five. Typically, strong receiving performances are both difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis and not quite as productive as a strong rushing performance. Additionally, receivers are opened up to more injury opportunities just by the nature of their position and their comparatively less rugged build, which heightens the risk factor created in drafting anybody in the first two rounds of the draft.

In the case of the tight end position, they just don't play as large a part in the offense to justify a high pick; there are some obvious exceptions, but it has been my experience that it is best to let others reach for those few if you do your homework and make a solid, smart selection later in the draft.

A Word on Scoring

Fantasy leagues have very different scoring systems. For the purposes of this article, I am measuring each player against one of the more common scoring systems and one with which I am the most familiar; however, the projected stats have been included so any scoring system can be applied and anyone can come up with rankings customized for their own leagues.

As a matter of reference, the scoring system used here is as follows: 1 point for every 30 yards passing/15 yards receiving/15 yards rushing, 6 points for each TD, -3 points for each INT thrown/fumble lost. Kickers are awarded 3 points per FG and 1 point for each PAT. Defensive rankings are assuming 1 point per tackle, 0.5 points per assist, 4 points for a sack, 3 points each for INT/fumble recovery/forced fumble.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Focus on attaining one of two things BEFORE you pick a WR, if at all possible: two reliable starting running backs (be aware of injury histories & value TDs over yardage); or a strong starting runner and a solid quarterback option. Think of production from you WR as bonus points ... the goal is to get more bonus points than your opponent, but you do not want to rely on these guys as your primary scoring options ... that strategy is just too risky.

That said, there are a few receiving options that are very much fitting in that late 2nd to early 3rd round range. After those individuals, however, try to hold off until the fourth or fifth rounds at the earliest to start picking from the remaining pool. There is value to be hate as far as round 12 at the WR position if you stay true to the rankings.

THE TOP 25

1. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys (102 rec, 1,428 yds, 14 TD) — With Tony Romo leading the way at QB, it should come as no surprise that TO is my top-rated pass catcher. Owens dominated at times in 2007 and has such a good rapport with his quarterback that it is hard to imagine him doing anything other than dominating his opponents. Oh, and crying at press conferences.

2. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (84/1260/16) — Moss could just as easily be the number one guy on this list, as their numbers actually project to about the same number of points in my leagues' scoring format. However, I don't see Moss catching the volume of balls Owens will have, simply because Dallas should pass more than New England in '08. Still, the TD numbers are otherworldly for Moss and he is pretty much as unstoppable as it gets week in, week out.

3. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (92/1,325/11) — Probably not a big surprise here, either, as Wayne has proven to be the most dynamic and reliable target for one Mr. Peyton Manning, who is as "money" as QBs come these days. The return to health of Marvin Harrison won't cut into Wayne's numbers too much, as there are plenty of balls to go around even in a scaled back Indy passing attack.

4. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns (98/1,214/11) — After his breakout campaign in 2007, Edwards is poised to follow that up with another high volume season. Cleveland won't be quite the passing juggernaut that they were a year ago, but that won't effect Braylon's output as he is the real deal and just as tough to stop as the elite names you're used to seeing atop the receiving lists.

5. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (84/1,156/11) — Another young guy who has just begun his ascent into the receiving elite, Johnson must avoid injuries if he is to reach his full potential. You can assume he'll miss at least one game over the course of the season (these projections reflect that); however, he is ultra-productive when on the field and look for big catch and TD numbers from the Texan wideout.

6. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (94/1,318/9) — With Arizona still not quite "there" in terms of offensive excellence, Fitzgerald's TD numbers will remain in the single digits, but he and Anquan Boldin have taken their place as one of the most dynamic tandems on any team in the league. Fitzgerald has as good a set of hands as anyone in the league and his knack for catching the ball in traffic is Moss-like. This spells another big season for the Arizona receiver and he would make an excellent No. 1 receiver on any fantasy team.

7. Plaxico Burress, New York Giants (74/1,073/11) — Plax is at the top of the next group of receivers. While he doesn't have quite the upside as the previous six on this list, he is an excellent source of touchdowns and catches his share of passes. You could do far worse than picking Burress somewhere around round four.

8. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals (83/1,228/9) — "Ocho Cinco," as he likes to call himself, is still a dangerous guy to have to defend against, even if he has clearly begun to lose some of his explosiveness. In Cincy's traditionally pass-happy offense, Johnson got lots of chances to make plays. In the new model that they are leaning towards, there will be less passing overall, but more formulated attempts, which should lend itself to giving the precision route-runner more quality chances. So, in 2008, look for Johnson to put up the numbers you expect to see from him, but just in a slightly different manner (quality over quantity).

9. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints (84/1,134/10) — Drew Brees' favorite target stands to see even less double-coverage with the addition of TE Jeremy Shockey, which could wind up getting Colston better numbers than those conservatively figured above. It will be business as usual for the big receiver as he continues his rise to league prominence.

10. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (94/1,269/8) — This ranking is deceiving for Smith. He is actually the highest rated receiver on my list for 2008, but he will be missing the first two games of the season, so his projected numbers actually reflect a 14-game total. The reality is he will miss those first two games, but he'll be as productive as anyone in the game once he does return. Carolina has a very easy passing schedule and Jake Delhomme looks sharp with his Tommy-John repaired elbow appearing to be stronger than ever.

11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals (94/1,119/8) — The only thing tougher than writing his name is trying to cover him. T.J. has emerged as the team's primary possession receiver with his ability to catch in traffic and take the big hit. Not much flair to his performances, but he is like a young Hines Ward in that he is very productive, sneaky-quick and always there to make the big play when it is needed. A good No. 1 guy, but a better complimentary receiver.

12. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers (63/1,008/9) — Holmes has emerged as Roethlisberger's play making receiver. He has an ability to release downfield, which makes him dangerous, but also marginalizes his value a bit as he becomes a non-factor on several plays as he is used as a decoy. If Holmes is chosen as your number one receiver, be sure to grab a second guy as soon as possible; Santonio will have several weeks where he puts up zilch in terms of production.

13. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (74/1,110/7) — This second-year pro is about one more season away from truly having a special season. There is no better talent in the game today, and that includes the Mosses and Owenses of the world. However, his lack of experience showed last season as he sometimes broke routes off too quickly and didn't trust his strength and physical presence as he should have, giving the defenders chances to knock passes down that should have been grabbed by the ex-Georgia Tech star. With time and experience, that will pass, and he'll catch every ball thrown his way ... just not quite yet. Still, the numbers and flashes of brilliance will be very good in '08 even if they are just a glimmer of his future level of stardom.

14. Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams (82/1,100/7) — As the Rams prepare for what could be as miserable a season as a team outside of Miami has had in a while, Torry Holt is the rare jewel in that otherwise dark and gloomy façade. Holt has shown that he can be productive in any situation, and this will be his biggest challenge. He is up for it, as you can expect solid numbers from the veteran pass catcher.

15. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (81/1,077/7) — Teaming with Larry Fitzgerald would make any receiver happy, and Boldin is no exception. While Fitzy may have cemented himself as the team's better receiver, the comparison is very tight, which speaks heavily to Boldin's ability level. An excellent choice, but an ideal guy to have as your No. 2 receiver.

16. Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks (88/1,001/7) — Branch has proven to be quite the injury liability, but if he remains healthy, he will emerge as a star in Seattle. He had flashes of his "old self" at times last season and with some more time working with Hasselbeck he should have a strong season. The recent injury to Bobby Engram, a traditionally popular Matt Hasselbeck target, will force Matt to create a better working relationship with the diminutive Branch, who has proven in the past that he can make tough catches consistently.

17. Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings (75/1,102/6) — Berrian has great speed, but is going to be someone defenses focus on when they play the Vikes. That said, if you had Adrian Peterson staring you in the face, how focused could you realistically be on somebody else? Exactly.

18. Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills (71/1,044/7) — Evans is one of those guys that will frustrate the heck out of you all season. The weeks you sit him, he'll put up triple-digit yardage totals and multiple scores. The weeks you have him in your lineup, he'll finish with 3 catches for 17 yards. This has been the trend of the talented Evans, and it will continue, to an extent. However, he began to show some more consistency in getting open late in '07, which bodes well for at least a slight increase in reliability for '08. Tread carefully, but if he remains on the board in rounds six or seven, jump all over him.

19. Roy Williams, Detroit Lions (74/1,043/7) — I worry that I'm missing something when I see how low I've ranked this talented receiver, but once legs start getting chronically injured, especially with receivers, you need to take notice. These numbers aren't by any means bad, but as talented as he is, you'd hope for more.

20. Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers (71/999/7) — Having escaped Miami last season, Chambers really began to fit into the Chargers' offensive scheme late in the season. With a full array of camps and practices with the team to further assimilate the offense, look for Chambers to play a much larger role in the San Diego passing game in '08.

21. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers (58/887/8) — No Brett Favre means less productivity for one of the bigger surprises of the '07 season. While it cannot be questioned that he is not a fluke, you cannot expect Aaron Rodgers to hit Jennings with the same big plays as did Favre, which will limit his production.

22. Laveranues Coles, New York Jets (74/903/7) — Having Brett Favre means Coles will get his chance to run with a truly premier QB for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, you can expect Laveranues to get hurt and miss a couple of games, which drops his value some, but he could well have a career year if he stays healthy — that's a big "if."

23. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (74/1,036/6) — Last year, Bowe gave a glimpse of what he could be. With a more settled KC quarterback situation, Bowe should really shine and while he may struggle to get in the end zone, he will produce big catch and yardage totals.

24. Tedd Ginn, Jr., Miami Dolphins (55/798/8) — Not exactly a guy that you can count on to get five or six catches a game, Ginn should see much more activity in his second season as a pro. He can fly, and this will mean a bunch of big plays, so while his reception and yardage totals will be pedestrian, his TD totals should be a big boost. Additionally, you can count on Ginn to return at least two kicks for scores and rack up a pile of return yardage, so factor that in if your league scores individual special team points to players.

25. Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles (67/925/7) — Curtis is the No. 1 option on the Eagles not named Brian Westbrook. He has all the tools and has grown into one of Donovan McNabb's favorites. Look for consistency from Curtis with a few big games sprinkled in.

THE BEST OF THE REST

26. Santana Moss, Washington Redskins (77/947/6)
27. Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders (68/844/7)
28. Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56/913/6)
29. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (78/894/6)
30. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (68/970/5)
31. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos (62/936/5)
32. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers (76/792/6)
33. Jerry Porter, Jacksonville Jaguars (67/821/6)
34. Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (59/791/6)
35. Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers (65/871/5)
36. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts (65/857/5)
37. Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens (77/817/5)
38. Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans (56/706/6)
39. Patrick Crayton, Dallas Cowboys (50/710/6)
40. Javon Walker, Oakland Raiders (48/720/5)
41. Donte Stallworth, Cleveland Browns (45/639/6)
42. Justin McCareins, Tennessee Titans (52/668/5)
43. Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers (50/670/5)
44. Reggie Williams, Jacksonville Jaguars (51/681/5)
45. Sidney Rice, Minnesota Vikings (51/663/5)
46. Bryant Johnson, San Francisco 49ers (48/638/5)
47. Nate Burleson, Seattle Seahawks (60/702/4)
48. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (47/670/4)
49. Devin Hester, Chicago Bears (32/576/6)
50. Steve Smith, New York Giants (54/681/4)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Dennis Northcutt, Jacksonville Jaguars: Northcutt is aging, but is a great insurance policy for the Jags if something were to happen to Reggie Williams or Matt Jones. And if you read the paper or watch TV, you will know that something already has happened to Matt Jones that should keep him on ice for the balance of the '08 season. Northcutt is definitely someone to be drafted early, but grab him in round 20 and stash him on your bench. OR ... Jabar Gaffney, New England Patriots: With the departure of Donte Stallworth, someone will need to fill that oft-used third receiver slot in New England. Gaffney seems to have a nice relationship with Brady and is adept at finding the soft spot in the defense.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Kevin Walter, Houston Texans: Many publications see Walter as a candidate to have a huge follow up season to his surprising emergence in 2007. Be very wary of this; Walter did not contribute much, if anything, with Andre Johnson in the lineup. He simply isn't a good complimentary guy as he runs soft routes and lacks separation speed. As a possession receiver, the role played by Johnson, he is solid, but with a healthy Johnson, his upside is quite limited as a weak-side receiver. AND ... Darrell Jackson, Denver Broncos: With the continuing saga of Brandon Marshall still unfolding, Jackson seems like a good natural choice to pick up some of his slack. This might be true, however, Brandon Stokley is a much more likely candidate to carry the load inside the red zone as he runs tighter routes and has far better hands. Jackson may get some good yardage numbers, but he will struggle to find the end zone, making him a player whose production you could match through picking off the waiver wire each week.

TIGHT ENDS

For all the pomp and circumstance surrounding QBs, RBs and WRs on draft day, the tight end position is largely ignored. My personal drafting strategy is to not even look the direction of a tight end (except for the occasional waitress, depending on where my draft is held) until round six or seven where I grab the highest rated sleeper on my draft board. The reason behind this is simple value; unless you can score one of the prime time TE options, their numbers are little more than anecdotes in your weekly totals. Typically, those prime time tight ends are overvalued, so you can use that pick after your league rival snags Antonio Gates to pick up the WR or RB that slipped as a result of Gates being drafted earlier than he should be.

The tight end position is valuable, but not a difference-maker. In most cases, you can use the waiver wire to fill the spot each week with the best available option; however, if you can stand to use a pick around rounds 6-9, do it. It will be one less thing to worry about. But definitely do not draft two TEs. When the bye week comes around, fill the position with a one-week sub off the wire; use that roster spot to build depth at one of your other premier positions.

THE TOP 10

1. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers (91/1,011/7) — I expect great things from Gates in '08. With Chambers on the outside opening up the middle and with no hold out, Antonio makes for a strong pass-catching option in the San Diego offense.

2. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (81/988/7) — Just missing the top ranking, Witten teams with Romo and Owens to put up one heck of a fantasy football receiving group together. He is an exceptional "safety valve" for Romo and figures to contribute greatly to the success of the Cowboys' dynamic passing attack.

3. Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants (76/846/8) — Shockey should thrive in the Saints pass-happy attack. Brees will look his way early and often, especially in the red zone, which should translate into big productivity for the moody Shockey.

4. Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland Browns (77/963/6) — Winslow proved to be as good as advertised last season, showing off his tremendous potential and what could be if he is to remain healthy and clear-headed. All signs point to Winslow producing more of the same in '08. He is a very safe pick.

5. Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins (59/708/7) — Cooley is an intriguing option. The 'Skins should pass more in 2008 and with all the speed they have at receiver, he makes a good option floating around the middle of the field. While he'll never be at the same level as the four ranked ahead of him, he is a solid contributor and could be had later in the draft.

6. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts (58/655/7) — Playing for Indy scores him points, literally and figuratively, but Clark lacks the consistent big play potential of the others high on this list. You could do worse, but he is one of those prime candidates to let others reach for him as he is a bit overvalued by many.

7. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (66/789/6) — Davis is the opposite of Clark. Truly an undervalued option, Davis is dynamic and blistering fast. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz will be very creative with Davis's rare skill set, which could translate into an interesting and productive output from the young tight end. His only weakness is his QB, which keeps his totals down somewhat, but he is a good guy to try to snag in rounds six or seven after some of the bigger name guys are gone.

8. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs (59/679/5) — As you can see, the projected numbers aren't too bad, but aren't the numbers we've come to expect from the veteran Chief TE. Invariably, some inexperienced fantasy owner jumps on Gonzalez far too early — don't let that be you — but if for whatever reason he slides, he is a good pick up in rounds six or seven.

9. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (43/503/6) — More of a TD guy than a standard receiving option, Miller is a likely target for Big Ben near the goal line. Don't expect earth-shattering weekly performances, but he will be good for a couple of scores in some weeks and should net you some productivity each and every week.

10. Owen Daniels, Houston Texans (59/679/5) — Many had him tagged as a sleeper last season, which wound up getting him overvalued (ironically enough). This season, he seems to be a bit more under the radar, so keep a pulse on the draft and don't be afraid to pick up Daniels in rounds seven or eight, especially if most of the others ranked ahead of him on this list have been selected.

THE BEST OF THE REST

11. Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos (51/632/5)
12. Alge Crumpler, Tennessee Titans (58/664/4)
13. Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens (57/593/5)
14. Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders (53/551/4)
15. L.J. Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (46/515/4)
16. Ben Watson, New England Patriots (35/424/5)
17. Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers (39/449/4)
18. Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams (49/515/3)
19. Greg Olson, Chicago Bears (45/495/3)
20. Kevin Boss, New York Giants (40/432/3)
21. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars (41/426/3)
22. Alex Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (34/371/3)
23. Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans (33/418/2)
24. Ben Utecht, Cincinnati Bengals (28/300/3)
25. Leonard Pope, Arizona Cardinals (29/293/3)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Leonard Pope, Arizona Cardinals: Just barely making my top-25, Pope could prove to be a very serviceable target for whoever is taking snaps in the Valley of the Sun. Pope is big and athletic and was misused in '07, so if the offensive brain trust can figure out how to more effectively utilize this weapon, expect 40+ catches, 500+ yards and a half-dozen TDs out of Pope.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears: Desmond Clark handles much of the heavy lifting at the TE position for Chicago, with Greg Olson handling the more finesse duties of running routes and catching passes. Unfortunately for Clark and any prospective Clark owner, fantasy football doesn't award points for blocking.

While the information provided herein should set the table nicely on draft day, it would be remiss for me not to include the following bit of cautionary advice: do not wait too long on pulling the trigger on these positions. While I have minimized their value to an extent, they do have some very real value, so you do not want to find yourself in the position that you are just replacing spare parts come Sunday mornings. The guidelines included in the informational listings above are based on standard draft assumptions, but you must see how your draft is progressing and adjust accordingly. It may well turn out that tight ends are overvalued across the board in your league, and if this is the case, you might need to grab "your guy" much earlier than you would have anticipated. If you stay true to your rankings, you'll do just fine.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:16 AM | Comments (2)

NL Wild Card Wild Cards

Since wild card play began back in 1995, nine different wild card teams have played in the World Series, including at least one wild card team in each of the previous six World Series. Here we break down the NL wild card race, including a list of the wild cards each team has as they fight for the all important fourth playoff spot.

Milwaukee Brewers

(Lead NL wild card race)

Why they can win: Starting pitching

The Brewers have the best 1-2 punch in the National League with C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. Even though Sheets has just one win since the All-Star Break, he's pitched well, and Sabathia has been nothing short of dominant in his transition from the American to the National League. If the power hitters in this lineup like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can get hot in September, it'll be tough for any team to make up ground against the Brewers.

Wild card: C.C. Sabathia

Sabathia has been a perfect 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA since the Brewers acquired him on July 7th from the Indians. He's won a career best 10 consecutive decisions. He has returned his Cy Young form of a year ago and has given a real boost to this Brewers team.

C.C. has been known as a workhorse his entire career, and the Brewers are making Sabathia live up to that reputation. He has averaged 8 innings per start in his eight starts for Milwaukee, and thrown over 100 pitches in his last seven starts. In fact, Sabathia has thrown at least 100 pitches in 21 of his 26 starts this season.

But he's also the same pitcher who was just 1-2 with an 8.80 ERA in the postseason last season for Cleveland. And the same pitcher that started this season 1-5 with a 7.51 ERA before turning things around in May.

You can make a pretty strong argument that C.C. just ran out of gas last season. The Brewers are hoping that he has caught his second wind in time for the stretch run.

If Sabathia can continue at this pace, it'll be the rest of the National League that will be gasping for their playoff lives.

St. Louis Cardinals

(2 games back)

Why they can win: Favorable scheduling

The Cardinals will start a seven-game homestand this week which will feature a head scratching four off days. While it is rare, virtually unheard of at this point in the season, to have so many off days, this Cardinals team can certainly use this to their advantage. They can use the off-days to manipulate their starting rotation in their favor, as well as get some much-needed rest for this extremely young and inexperienced bullpen.

Playing seven games in 11 days also gives the team longer to evaluate the injury to Chris Carpenter and decide what to do with Adam Wainwright. If Carpenter is ready to return on August 26 as St Louis hopes, then Wainwright, who could be back as early as this week, could be used to bolster their shaky bullpen.

If Carpenter is going to be out for the rest of the season, the Cardinals could slide Wainwright into the rotation. Having off days to assess situations is a whole lot more favorable than constantly using stopgap solutions.

Wild card: Bullpen

The Cardinals used rookie pitchers to get 11 of the final 12 outs in a two-run game over the weekend. Their closer at the moment, Ryan Franklin, has just 14 saves in 21 tries.

The Cards are a respectable 21-22 in games decided by one run or less this season. However, trailing by two games this late in the season, the Cards cannot afford to give any games away. They caught lightning in a bottle winning the 2006 World Series by riding rookie arms in the postseason. Lightning may have to strike twice if the St. Louis Cardinals want to find themselves in the postseason for the seventh time in nine seasons.

New York Mets

(2.5 games back of wild card; lead AL East)

Why they can win: They seem to have put last season behind them

After the collapse at the end of last season that allowed the Phillies to win the NL East, the New York Mets have sent a very loud message to the players that this season will be different by firing manager Willie Randolph. So far the players have responded well.

The Mets have won eight of their last ten, including six in a row and host Atlanta and Houston for seven games before being really tested again in a big two game series in Philadelphia later this month. And though they will certainly miss Billy Wagner, who is going to be on the DL longer than they initially anticipated, the Mets have managed just fine without him.

If the Mets can continue to win games without their top arm out of the bullpen at their disposal, Wagner's return in September could be the boost this team needs to hold off the Phillies and redeem themselves from the collapse of 2007.

Wild card: Closer

I mentioned that New York has been able to win games recently even without Billy Wagner, but what happens if that doesn't continue? The Mets have already kicked around the idea of moving John Maine into the closer role until Wagner returns. Not every pitcher can make a smooth transition from starter to closer, and then back to starter a month later.

Asking Maine keep changing roles this late in the season could mess up his rhythm and render him ineffective for the stretch run. The Mets' bullpen has had its fair share of trouble holding leads this season, and asking a starter to shore up that position is a big task.

The best case scenario is that the Mets continue to get good starting pitching from guys like Johan Santana and Maine and win enough games to stay ahead of the Phillies while waiting for Billy Wagner's return. The worst case scenario? Well, we saw that last year.

Philadelphia Phillies

(4.5 games back of wild card, 2 games back of New York Mets)

Why they can win: Pitching

You might think of Ryan Howard and his towering home runs when you think of the Phillies, but it has been their pitching that has kept them in the NL East race this season. Coming into this week, the Phillies have the fifth-best ERA in the National League and the best save percentage, thanks in no small part to Brad Lidge and his perfect 30 saves in 30 opportunities.

They also have two starters, Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer, in the top 15 in the NL in ERA. Hamel also ranks third in the league in strikeouts.

The solid 1-2 punch the Phillies pack, combined with a rejuvenated Brad Lidge closing things out, means that the Phils aren't going anywhere any time soon.

Wild card: The offense

It's hard to imagine that a team that boasts the two reigning NL MVPs and plays in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park would have any trouble scoring runs, but that is exactly what is happening with the Phillies.

They rank just 12th in the National League in batting average, and rank in the bottom five in batting average, slugging percentage, on base percentage, and runs scored in the last month.

For a team built around a core group of young stud hitters, the Phillies sure have a lot of trouble hitting the ball. Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley have all hit below .250 in the last month. They are going to need some consistency from their best hitters to have any chance to play this October.

Coming later this week, a look at the AL wild card race.

________________________________________

Today's secret word: Wild card

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:14 AM | Comments (0)

August 15, 2008

Overhyping Overseas

Can we please stop all the talk about Kobe Bryant and LeBron James playing in Europe for $50 million? Enough already.

First of all, there aren't even any offers on the table for either of these guys to play overseas. All we have are these wild "what if" scenarios that involve a perfect storm of circumstances that would enable these players to play for a European team.

Second of all, it's not like Kobe and LeBron are out there selling themselves to these teams in hopes to land lucrative deals. They are being asked specific questions about hypothetical situations and answering honestly. Kobe's "do you know any reasonable man that would turn down $50 million?" response is a perfect example.

What is he supposed to say there?

If he answers any differently in that situation, he's a liar. What's worse, brutal honesty or are calculated deceitfulness?

Here's another unanswered question: why do we assume that these guys are leaving sooner rather than later? Who's to say that these offers are only on the table after their current contracts expire?

The fact is these overseas teams don't care about Kobe or LeBron the player. They care about the Kobe and LeBron brand.

These teams aren't floating the idea of $50 million contracts because they are that desperate for scoring. They want to pay that kind of money because landing an NBA superstar would bring in more revenue for their team than anyone can even imagine.

Well, guess what: the Kobe or LeBron brand isn't going away. Five years from now if he's still playing basketball, Kobe Bryant is going to sell out any gym he plays in. That's what this is all about.

Here's another "what if" scenario: what if Kobe re-signs with the Lakers, plays another five seasons, wins another title or two, then calls it quits after 17 Hall of Fame seasons with the Lakers? After he retires, he decides to play another two seasons in Europe for $100 million. Is that so wrong?

What would you have rather seen: Michael Jordan labor through two painful seasons with the Wizards or take his diminished skills overseas and still dominate the inferior talent?

You can argue that Jordan tainted his legacy by playing for the Wizards. You can also argue that Kobe could improve his by playing his golden years against lesser opponents and stockpiling championships.

Playing the twilight of one's career overseas makes a lot more sense than leaving at the apex to do it, especially when the money is going to be there regardless.

If you ask me, the bigger concern the NBA needs to have is losing its second-tier players. Obviously, losing Kobe or LeBron would be a deathblow to the NBA, but if I hadn't made myself clear by now, I'll reiterate: it's not gonna happen.

What could happen, however, is that all-star-caliber players could leave the NBA for teams overseas due to the money and damage the league even more than losing one superstar would.

For example, Gilbert Arenas signed a six-year, $111 million contract this offseason with the Wizards. That averages out to $18.5 million per season. Elton Brand signed for five years and about $80 million dollars with the Sixers, or $16 million per season.

If Kobe and LeBron are worth $50 million to these teams, Brand and Arenas have to be worth at least $35 million, right? Now we're talking about European teams paying second-tier stars double what the NBA superstars are making, and that has potential to be a huge issue down the road.

Losing role players like Josh Childress and Carlos Arroyo are minor setbacks the NBA will have no trouble overcoming. But losing an all-star is not acceptable. David Stern cannot, and will not, allow it.

As I've already mentioned, nothing is imminent. Kobe and LeBron aren't weeks away from departing from China and landing in Greece. That potential disaster is years away. It's as if the European market made the first moves of a chess match with the NBA by signing a few of their role players and tempting a few of their superstars with tall tales of big bucks.

Now it's David Stern's move. If you think that commissioner Stern is going to sit on his hands and allow his players to be poached away from him, then you need to take a minute and do some research on the man. Here.

Stern didn't allow a terrible image problem, embarrassing on-court riot, or a major gambling scandal to bury his league. I highly doubt that a few billionaires with blank checks from overseas will take him down, either.

I admit that something needs to be done to prevent this situation from getting worse, but I have total confidence in the man in charge of preventing it.

So enjoy the Olympics, because it's most likely the last time you'll see Kobe and LeBron play on a continent other than the one they call home.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:34 AM | Comments (1)

Sports Q&A: Favre in NY; French Toast

Jerome from Brownsville, NY writes, "With Brett Favre now a Jet, are overly optimistic New York sports fans setting their sights too high with visions of Super Bowl glory?"

Is it even possible for New York sports fans to set their sights too high? What New York Jets fan hasn't called a talk radio show and heartily defended Chad Pennington's ability to take the Jets to the promised land? At least until Week 1's result proved otherwise?

Now that Favre is a Jet and Pennington has been jettisoned to Miami, Jets fans can update their football shrines with images of Favre, the savior for whom they've been waiting for what seems like an eternity. There's no telling how many Jets fans have prayed for Pennington to up and disappear. Now that he has, and Favre is the reason, Jets faithful can begin in earnest to worship Favre for what he truly is — a messiah.

Not that Pennington was a bad guy or anything, but, like Satan, he was always interfering with goodness. And what happened to Satan? He was cast to Hell? Pennington? He got truly shafted — he's in Miami, where it's hotter, and where Bill Parcell's wears the horns, and well as the large-waisted pants. Let's face it. Jets fans were in love with Favre before he even threw his first shovel pass, which traveled faster than anything Pennington ever tossed.

Will Favre be able to handle the pressure of playing in New York? Of course. Everyone says Green Bay is an easy place to play, without the added pressure of huge media markets and high fan expectations. Wrong! In Green Bay, the fans own the team. In New York, the fans just think they do. But this should be no problem for Favre. Sure, he's got the high expectations of all Jets fans on his shoulders, but this time, those expectations aren't unreasonable. Favre knows the Jets faithful have the Super Bowl on their minds, but so does he. Otherwise, he wouldn't be there.

Even before he signed with New York, it was apparent the Jets organization had committed to a major effort to return to the playoffs. While addressing defensive issues through the draft, New York upgraded offensively on the free agent market, inking guards Allen Faneca and Damien Woody. Favre recognized a good thing in New York, and since the Packer regime was done recognizing their own good thing, Favre himself, he took off to become the Big Cheese in the Big Apple.

Maybe a better question to ask is this: will Favre be able to handle living in New York City? He's a Wrangler kind of guy in a Gucci kind of town. New Yorkers can't go anywhere without a bottle of water; Favre doesn't leave home without a spit cup. In Favre's world, "Times Square" is a math expression, not an iconic and cultural landmark in New York City. You can buy drugs on any corner in the City; you can't do that in Green Bay, or Kiln, Mississippi. But Favre can acclimate himself to life in New York City by distributing free samples of Prilosec, and wiping out heartburn in the City just as former Mayor Rudy Guliani wiped out pornography. Damn that Guliani.

But seriously, New Yorkers will stop at nothing to make Favre feel at home. Come Thanksgiving, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Favre float right between Rocky and Bullwinkle in the Macy's Parade. Is there a deer stand in Central Park? There will be. It may be a cumbersome alternative, but subway tokens shaped like cans of Copenhagen smokeless tobacco would certainly ease Favre's adjustment. And the Naked Cowboy? He'd have to go, to be replaced by a harp-playing, chocolate-loving transvestite in green and gold known as the "Fudge Packer," which would offer Favre fond memories of Green Bay, should homesickness strike.

So, is a slot in the Super Bowl too much to ask of Favre? First of all, obviously, the Jets would have to make the playoffs, which is a reasonable outcome. A deep playoff run would likely entail beating the Patriots or Colts, or both, in the AFC playoffs. No worries. Favre has already guaranteed a win over the Colts in the AFC Championship, and has promised that should he decide to wear pantyhose this year, he'll do so tastefully. Shoot, maybe the Jets will meet the Packers in Tampa in February 2009. It could happen, especially if both teams in their entirety travel there to watch the Patriots and Cowboys play.

In any case, Jets fans will get their money's worth. Whatever happens, win or lose, Favre will be loved by all. If he gets a kiss from Suzy Kolber on the sidelines, it will be because she asked for it. Who knows? This season might go so well for the Jets that we'll see Bill Parcells return to the franchise next year.

Ethel from Asoria, NY writes, "Can you explain the nerve of the French 400 meter relay team predicting a win over the United States, then losing?"

Do you mean the "French Boast" becoming the "French Toast?" Then I'll gladly explain. But first, let me say that nothing can top a tension-filled, historic, three-minute plus swimming relay for a gold medal for sheer, unadulterated excitement. Except for seeing world-class male swimmers in fashionable one-piece swimsuits stroking side-by-side. That's hot.

Now for the Frenchies. There's nothing wrong with confidence. Of this, the French are certainly not lacking. But French superstar Alain Bernard's overconfidence, with stated intentions of "smashing" the Americans, was the downfall of the French team. I can't state with certainty, but I doubt the Americans would have won that race had Bernard not spoken so confidently. If he really felt that the French could have "smashed" the Americans, then he should have kept his mouth shut and done it. I'm not sure if this is done in swimming events, but in NASCAR, a white flag is displayed to signify one lap remaining. Maybe Bernard saw the white flag and decided to do what the French normally do when they see a white flag — wait for the Americans and coast in behind them.

Get Your Questions Answered!

Do you have a question or comment? Then send your question or comment along with your name and hometown to [email protected]. You may get the answer you're looking for in the next column on Friday, August 29th.

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Today's secret word: Favre

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:14 AM | Comments (0)

August 14, 2008

Secrets of the 2008 NFL Season (Pt. 2)

Don't miss Secrets of the 2008 NFL Season, part one.

* In a sensual opening teaser for Monday Night Football's September 15th telecast of the Eagles/Cowboys game, Terrell Owens is met in the locker room by Miley Cyrus, clad only in a towel. As censors scramble and the bounds of good taste teeter, Cyrus does not drop towel, and instead hands T.O. a mouse ears hat, and the two are joined by the Jonas Brothers for a rousing edition of "Are You Ready For Some Football," the sound of which causes Hank Williams, Jr. to fall off a mountain.

* Former Bronco Javon Walker scores his first touchdown as a Raider on an 88-yard touchdown pass from JaMarcus Russell as Oakland hosts Denver in the second game of the season's opening Monday night doubleheader. An excited Walker, thrilled to score against his old team, leaps into the end zone stands of McAfee Coliseum, where he is subsequently beaten and robbed by crazed Raiders fans populating the Black Hole.

* New Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano makes an immediate impact in Miami, leading the Dolphins to a 2-0 start, and seizing control of the garbage-collection business in the city from the Cuban mafia. Things begin to unravel for Sparano and the Dolphins in Week 3, when the 'Fins are shellacked 31-14 by the Patriots in Foxboro, while back in Miami, a family of ducks vacates Sparano's backyard swimming pool.

* Panthers receiver Steve Smith, after serving his two-game suspension for punching teammate Ken Lucas, returns with a big game in Week 3 as the Panthers defeat the Buccaneers in Tampa 26-20. Smith has 8 catches for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns, and after the game grants rotund FOX sideline reporter Tony Siragussa an interview. In a startling miscommunication, Smith mistakes Siragussa's statement of "You look like Nelly," and instead hears "Get in my belly." The volatile Smith then grants Siragussa an ass-whipping, and the two tussle on the sidelines before being separated by FOX play-by-play man Joe Buck, who labels the incident as "disgusting."

* After tirelessly pleading his case to Chicago head coach Lovie Smith, Rex Grossman is named starter — of the Chicago Marathon on October 12th. When a race official hands the official starter's pistol to Grossman, the Bear quarterback fumbles the handoff, and the pistol fires prematurely, resulting in the trampling injuries of several skeletal Kenyan and Ethiopian runners. With all of the favorites to win out of the race due to injury, former Bear running back Cedric Benson, training for a comeback, leads the race at the midway point. But, near the 20-mile mark, Benson begins to run erratically, and is stopped by police for questioning. Benson becomes belligerent and is arrested, given a sobriety test, and charged with "Marathoning While Impaired."

* With the battle for the starting quarterback position neck-and-neck between Alex Smith, Sean Hill, and J.T. O'Sullivan, San Francisco head coach Mike Nolan faces a quandary in choosing a starter before the 49ers' opener on September 7th. So he does the only logical thing: he leaves the final decision in the hands of American Idol judges Paula Abdul, Simon Cowell, and Randy Jackson. Cowell assesses Smith as "dreadful, just awful," while Jackson agrees, dawg. A spaced-out Abdul mumbles the words "unicorn," "razor," "blue," and the letter "X," incoherent mumbo-jumbo when uttered by Abdul, but, when yelled by Peyton Manning at the line of scrimmage, results in an audible from a Reggie Wayne wide receiver screen to a Joseph Addai stretch play.

Eventually, Smith gets the judges' approval and is named starter but, in another example of his bad quarterbacking decisions, takes a flight to Hollywood instead of Glendale, Arizona for the 49ers' opener against the Cardinals.

* A remorseful Brandon Marshall of the Broncos tries to explain his recent troubles with the law in an in-depth interview with a local television sports anchor. Marshall plays the role of victim, claiming his actions were the result of a condition known as "Jungle Fever," named for an outbreak in Cincinnati in which sufferers are afflicted with an uncontrollable desire to commit crimes and play football. Marshall graciously accepts the three-game suspension dealt by commissioner Roger Goodell, and Marshall vows to remain trouble-free, which becomes a short-lived promise after Marshall is busted trying to join the "mile high club" with a team secretary underneath the Bronco statue at Invesco Field.

* In an effort to impress his new Jets teammates with a display of his toughness, and to show the Buccaneers what they're missing, Brett Favre bare-handedly rips his spleen from his gut, cooks it over an open flame, and prepares a delicious paste, suitable for dipping, that he calls "paté du 'Favre' gras," which goes well with injured pride.

Favre's new Jets No. 4 jersey easily becomes the NFL's No. 1 selling jersey, and quickly becomes a favorite in rap circles, especially among rappers like Jay-Z, Nas, and others who have claimed to have retired only to return to the game.

Meanwhile, back in Green Bay, the "Brett Favre 'Flip-Flop' Sandals" are a top-seller.

* Minnesota's Jared Allen adds a pass-rushing presence to Minnesota's already formidable run-stuffing defense, and leads the NFL with 14½ sacks, rendering opposing quarterbacks as helpless as a defenseless elk on a game preserve facing the hot lead of a 30.06 rifle. The Vikes lead the league in most defensive categories, and go 5-1 in the NFC North, winning the division with an 11-5 record. After a first-round bye, the Vikes lose at home to Philadelphia in the divisional round.

* With a healthy Jake Delhomme and a revitalized Julius Peppers, excitement runs high in Charlotte for a stellar season by the Carolina Panthers. But that excitement doesn't remotely compare to the buzz generated by reports of the Carolina cheerleaders 'Google-ing' themselves, and each other, on various laptops.

* In the second major player scandal to hit Atlanta in two years, running back Michael Turner is indicted for his involvement in a moonshine smuggling operation fronted by distant relatives residing in the Tidewater region of Virginia. Turner is implicated when he is filmed by federal agents selling white lightning to Marcus Vick, who in turn passes it to some underage schoolgirls. "Turner and Hooch" reads the headline in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, as Turner is pictured handcuffed in an orange jumpsuit.

* Saints running back Reggie Busch and girlfriend Kim Kardashian elope in Las Vegas in late August. The couple spend their wedding night in the Parlor Suite of the Wynn Las Vegas, and their marital escapades are surreptitiously filmed by former New England Patriots video assistant Matt Walsh, who posts the explicit video on the Internet under the title "Keeping it Up With the Kardashian."

Upon seeing the video and impressed by Kardashian's ability to change direction and low center of gravity, ESPN fantasy football maestro Matthew Berry, the "Talented Mr. Roto," bumps Kardashian up to No. 15 on his list of top fantasy running backs, two spots ahead of Bush.

* Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna, buoyed by lame duck general manager Matt Millen's presence with the organization, vows that he is "fairly certain" and "moderately sure" that he will guarantee that the Lions will win ten games. Of his guarantee, Kitna is "cautiously optimistic" that it will "somewhat reach fruition."

* Titans quarterback Vince Young inches closer to his degree in Applied Learning and Development/Youth and Community Studies (fancy college talk for a degree that qualifies one to become a physical education teacher) from the University of Texas with a C-minus in psychology. Young celebrates with adoring Austin coeds in a local bar, where Young goes shirtless, revealing two impressive pectorals, a rippled six-pack, and a score of three on a retake of the Wonderlic test.

Young leads the Titans to a disappointing 8-8 record, then edges kicker Rob Bironas for the team MVP award.

* Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin releases his new book, "Two-Point Conversion Charts For Dummies," which he dedicates to himself.

* Dallas cornerback Adam "Pacman" Jones succeeds in efforts to drop the "Pacman" nickname from his name, fearing the nickname referenced his many troubles with the law in the last three to four years. Then, in October, Jones is involved in a minor dustup in which he showers one dollar bills down upon the wait staff at an Arlington, Texas, Waffle House, then tries to reclaim them, leading to a nasty brawl in which Jones is beaten, smothered, covered, chunked, and diced by several waitresses. Jones is charged with disturbing the peace and disorderly conduct, both violations of his parole, and is sent to jail for a little over a year, leading Cowboy teammate Marion Barber to coin the new nickname Adam "12-to-15" Jones.

* Recently diagnosed with diabetes, Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler learns to monitor the condition, harnessing untapped potential that leads to a breakout year on the field as well as off. Cutler throws for 4,105 yards and 26 touchdowns, and upgrades his status to become a major player in the field of romance, overtaking Matt Leinart as the league's premier playboy, while making the Red Hot Chili Peppers' "Blood Sugar Sex Magik" his unofficial theme song.

* In the midst of a training camp battle for the Cardinals starting quarterback spot, Matt Leinart is photographed cavorting in a hot tub with eight tan line-free hotties, as well as their mothers, at a party in Las Vegas. The pictures are splashed all over the Internet at the gossip web site TMZ.com, and a publicity storm ensues. Leinart's competition for the job, veteran Kurt Warner, feels that this publicity gives Leinart an unfair advantage in the quarterback race, so he files an injunction to have the pics removed from the web site. Lawyers are called in, deliberations take place, and a settlement is reached. The Leinart pictures remain, but TMZ is forced to display a picture of Warner showering at home alone.

* After Week 11, Cleveland's Braylon Edwards leads the NFL with 1,081 receiving yards and 9 touchdown catches, a level of success he partially credits to a brutal offseason physical and mental workout regimen with teammate and friend Kellen Winslow. But Edwards' season takes a turn for the worse when, after a no-catch game against the Bills under the Monday night lights on November 17th, Edwards snaps at reporters, thus beginning a pattern of odd behavior that sees him wearing fatigues and recklessly driving a racing motorcycle while seething with an intense hostility for Joey Porter.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:55 AM | Comments (0)

Slant Pattern Quick Hits: Olympics

I begin the week's column with a linguistic tip: it's pronounced, "Bei-JING," not "Bei-ZHING." It's a hard "j'" sound. It's amazing what you can learn by browsing language blogs. The speech pundits call our tendency to invent these pronunciations "hyperforeignification," or the tendency to give place names in faraway lands what we consider to be suitably exotic pronunciation.

But as the world gets smaller and smaller, I'm not sure there will be much left in the way of exotic anymore, and the Games are a perfect example of that. I've seen a black Norwegian weightlifter, black guys born in Texas and Pennsylvania on the German and Russian basketball teams, and of course, Becky Hammon, who only recently decided to fly the flag of the Russian bear, where she plays club basketball.

So what to make of these defectors, many of whom don't even have a familial connection to their new countries? They are essentially national athletes for hire, playing for another country only because they are not good enough to play for their own, or at least not called upon to.

My first thought is, for me, there would have to be some sort of that familial connection. To the best of my knowledge, I am 100% Irish (for a long time, my mother's family believed we had German blood, but it turns out the guy that gave my family the "Marks" surname was Irish, not German), so I would be willing to play basketball for Ireland.

In fact, considering how many people in the U.S. are form British or Irish stock, and the IOC's evidently lax laws on allowing athletes from foreign countries, it's a wonder that the U.K. and Ireland aren't basketball powers. You would think they could get every American white guy not good enough to play for the U.S. I suppose those countries do not wish to go that route.

So, yes ... Ireland for me, but that's the only country besides the U.S. I would suit up for. I would not just sign up for citizenship to any country willing to put me in the Olympics.

All that said, here are some things that bother me more than the Becky Hammons and J.R. Holdens of the world signing up for other countries.

1. Waiting for the bus in the rain.
2. Hearing my wife say she wants to discuss our finances.
3. Trying and failing to fish a popcorn shell out of my teeth with my tongue.
4. Joe Buck, if Joe Buck bothered me 75% less than he does.

Yet I've seen more than one columnist use the word "traitor" to describe these folks, and of course that and worse in the frothing world of anonymous Internet comments.

It's not treason because they are playing a sport, not signing up for the army. I ask, and not for the first time in this space, why is it that the only time we remember sports aren't important is when an athlete suffers some horrifying injury?

I have another annoying minority opinion on the Olympics. It is, I think NBC, giant conglomerate that they are, are doing a great job with these Olympics. Or maybe the rest of the world of sports coverage is so terrible now that they are merely doing great on a curve.

But I have two reasons for giving them high marks: one is, they seemed to have cut way, way down on features. THANK GOD. Seems every Olympiad I can remember watching before this one had left me muttering at the TV becuuse, for every three minutes of action, they would give two minutes to a feature on how the athlete in the spotlight overcame the adversity of having a cousin with asthma. I am not seeing that anymore.

The second tip of the hat is for NBC's online coverage, where you can watch just about every event, no matter how small or early in the preliminaries they are, either live or at your leisure, recorded, for free. You thought you wouldn't be able to watch the Honduras/Cameroon soccer match? Well, you're dead wrong, mister.

I don't want to get into a debate about file-sharing or piracy, but one positive effect of being able to watch movies, listen to music, or watch live events online for free, with various degrees of legality, is that it forces the industry to compete with the underground, and the consumer is the winner. The RIAA will never stamp out file-sharing, so different record companies avail more and more of their catalog online for free or very cheap to compete.

NBC's 2,200 hours of online events for free is a byproduct of this. I chose a sport nearly at random — weightlifting — and watched and got into over three hours of it. And it was women's weightlifting. I'm completely serious. Give it a try. Each woman gets six attempts to lift (three of two lift types), and you get to know them, sort of, or at least it doesn't take long to decide who to root for or against, and who is cute or not. Again, I am serious. These weightlifters in the lower weight classes (139 pounds or less) don't have those freaky awful body-building physiques, they look completely normal, if their torsos are a bit stocky. I've seen two of them cry after not making a lift. They maintain their femininity. I find myself wondering what they would be like in bed...

... whoa, it's late, what am I talking about? Oh, yeah. Hard "j" sound.

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Today's secret word: Olympics

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:30 AM | Comments (0)

August 13, 2008

College Football's Crystal Ball

2007 was one unpredictable year.

It started with the Mountaineers of Appalachian State shocking Michigan, and finished with the first two-loss national champion in LSU (fittingly, they meet to open off the 2008 season). With college football's roller coaster ride of last year, it's time to look into the crystal ball and see if 2008 has anything great in store for football fanatics.

Having said that, let's take a look and see what we've got.

* Notre Dame, playing four of their first five games at home, will start the season on a high note. The Charlie Weis fan club will reappear in full force and everyone will be talking about the Irish. Then, they'll go to Chapel Hill to face North Carolina, and things will start to fade. With five of their last seven games on the road, the Irish will fade out of the national spotlight come season's end.

* There's always one bottom dweller every year that, despite all the preseason prognostications, comes out of nowhere to surprise the masses. This year's pick? How about Iowa State. Gene Chizik took his lumps during his first season in Ames, but this year, the Cyclones go without playing Texas and Oklahoma, while getting Kansas and Missouri at home. The Cyclone defense will only get stronger under the guidance of Chizik, so if things fall in place, it could be the start of something great for ISU.

* Say no to Tebow. That is, say no to Tim Tebow winning the Heisman for a second straight year. Coming in with a huge bulls-eye on his back, Tebow is going to have to rely on Emmanuel Moody a lot more, as well as Percy Harvin, who's really the best player on the Florida team. Unless Moody and Harvin do most of the work, and Urban Meyer lets Tebow tuck and run every first and goal opportunity, I don't see a repeat.

* Despite Tebow not winning, ESPN will continue their wild affection for Tebow.

* Those who have tickets to Wisconsin-Fresno State will consider themselves lucky to have them. The game will live up to its billing in what should be the most electric atmosphere the Valley's seen in quite awhile.

* Duke will win more than one game this season. They'll probably win two or three, but if they win that many, or more, it's because of David Cuttcliffe, a great hire on the part of the Blue Devils.

* Unlike Alabama's last time in the Georgia Dome, no tornadoes will hit Atlanta when the Tide takes on Clemson to open off the season. At least, let's all hope so.

* Dome stadiums will host two great openers: Alabama/Clemson and Missouri/Illinois. Then again, one doesn't need a crystal ball to know that one.

* The last two Fiesta Bowls have been classics (unless you are an Oklahoma fan). Relax, Sooner fans. This year, OU won't go to Glendale. However, the Fiesta Bowl will hit the jackpot again, as Big East champ West Virginia meets Big Ten at-large Michigan and Rich Rodriguez.

* Before the game, Rodriguez will call Terrelle Pryor and ask one more time if he'll change his mind and come to Ann Arbor.

* In another must-see bowl matchup, the Liberty Bowl will host Houston Nutt's Ole Miss Rebels, who will go 6-6, and C-USA champion Tulsa. He'll say nothing, but TU offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will be licking his chops at this one.

* It seems as though the national title game comes down to a preseason favorite and a team that completely flies under the radar. With that in mind, the national title game will feature ... drumroll ... Georgia and Missouri.

Missouri?

I'm sure many aren't surprised with Georgia. Despite a brutal schedule, Mark Richt really has the pieces in place, and I think even with one loss, the Bulldogs will make it to Miami. However, no one's been looking at Mizzou, They've got Chase Daniel still at QB, are loaded with playmakers, and their schedule boils down to three land-mine games: Illinois, Texas and Kansas. All of these games are very winnable for Mizzou, which means the Tigers will get a shot at revenge in the Big 12 title game with OU. Easier said than done, but Mizzou has a team that's talented enough to run their schedule and make it to the BCS title game.

However, Georgia will take the crown when it's all said and done, making it a trifecta for the SEC.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:53 AM | Comments (0)

Players Going Abroad a Threat to NBA?

During this current NBA offseason, free agents have been snatched up left and right. There's nothing new about this. Some have even taken offers from to play from outside the continental 48 states. Again, in sports, that's not new. But even with this news being somewhat stale, it's anticipation that's driving the bus this time around.

Former Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Childress signed with Greek powerhouse Olympiakos Piraeus (3 yrs/$20 million), while backup point guard Earl Boykins, who spent 10 years in the Association, was picked up by Virtus Bologna of Italy (1 yr/$3.5 million). Another backup point, Carlos Arroyo, is planning on playing in Isreal next season after Maccabi Tel-Aviv inked him to a three-year deal.

The "defections" of these three mid-time players, along with other mids (including Bostjan Nachbar, Nenad Krstic, and Primoz Brezec), were the start of an uneasy feeling in the pit of the NBA-lover's stomach. The problem became indigestion-like after musings from two of the game's biggest stars, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, about their possible interest in accepting offers from Euro teams that could go as high as $50 million per season.

But is this really something to get anxious about? Could the top players from the professional ranks just slide across the pond to dabble in the European game for a year or two? What kind of threat is this league to Commissioner David Stern, who has openly stated that he wants to build a European division of the NBA?

Like I said before, this isn't humungous news. American players have been going overseas for years in several sports. Mostly, these players are aging stars who have fallen from superstardom or ones that decided that their best chance to earn a living playing was in that market. Needless to say, Childress, Boykins, and Arroyo would do fine over here, but the amount of extra green in their pockets is a big incentive.

With respect to the legitimacy of the threat, you can make some claims to being a bit skittish. The first thing to note is that it doesn't appear this organization is looking to overtake the NBA and become the world source for basketball. The main goals for these moves are publicity, making some coin, and winning their own championships. While the NBA only covers one country, the European League is already an intercontinental affair. Other attempts at challenging the powers that be in sports (i.e. the ABA and the USFL) have been thwarted because these leagues were battling for supremacy on common turf.

Another possible twitch could flare up from the fact that foreign players have been proved worthy of not only playing up to NBA-caliber, but superstardom themselves. Names such as Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker, and Pau Gasol are synonymous with the League's brand. Most of the foreign-born players have come from established organizations that have been in business for decades now. In other words, this isn't your garden variety startup league that has absolutely no fanbase or proven track record.

Don't forget the fact that when you're talking about Europe, you're opening up a new set of major cities to explore. The NBA pretty much has stock in the major cities of the U.S., meaning that if any starter league wants to provide a brand for itself, it will probably have to make use of second or third-tier cities. There are areas of Europe that would be considered a notch below the major hubs, as well (i.e. Paris, Rome, Barcelona, Berlin, and Moscow).

The question is, which would you prefer? Louisville, KY or Milan, Italy? Norfolk, VA or Lyon, France? Birmingham, AL or Munich, Germany? No offense to those former choices, but I wouldn't be surprised if any hoopster considering those options went with the latter choice each time.

However, with all of the plusses to making a move of this magnitude and being able to brand yourself to a whole new continent, there are some drawbacks. Not having as much access to family, huge (maybe unachievable) expectations, and playing against lesser competition on the whole could dampen the experience. Plus, there is that minus of not competing for the Larry O'Brien trophy in June. Other than being an Olympic champion, the Euroleague crown doesn't carry as much weight as being an NBA champion (just like an MLS title doesn't have any weight when compared to soccer's Euroleague).

In the end, with all the opportunities of life in Europe and an amount of money a modest-two level house couldn't hold, I don't believe this will be a big concern. I don't see Kobe, or LeBron, or any emerging star passing up a chance to be known as kings of the best basketball league in the world for a two or three-year vacation.

However, if they want to spend six figures on, I don't know, a towelboy or something for a couple of years, let me know. I think I would make a great addition to your organization.

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Today's secret word: Europe

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 11:35 AM | Comments (1)

NFL '08 Predictions: AFC East

It had to happen that days before this article was due, the biggest name in NFL drama had to get traded to this division. Why, oh why, could I have not written about the AFC East last week? The AFC East is the most interesting division in the entire NFL. Can the Patriots be as dominant as in 2007? Can they recover from the most disappointing loss perhaps in NFL history? Can Miami turn things around from one of the worst seasons in NFL history? They've taken some steps to be a far better team, but how far can a team really go in one season?

And of course, the Jets made the trade for Brett Favre. But can one man take this team from quite bad to contender? Then there's the Buffalo Bills, who have continued to flirt with the playoffs. Will this be the year they break through? I'd have to say this is the most unpredictable division in the NFL.

New England Patriots

I believe the New England Patriots have passed their prime. That is not to say they won't be dominant or that they won't even win the Super Bowl, that is simply saying they were better in 2007 than they will be in 2008. 18-1 Isn't going to happen, no matter how you look at things.

Drafting Jerod Mayo was a good move for a team filled with aging, slowing linebackers. Hopefully, Mayo can learn a thing or two from Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi before they're at and beyond retirement age.

Laurence Maroney seems to be coming into his own as a premier NFL back, and one would hope that Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker can continue their reign of offensive terror with Maroney getting better each week.

But the question marks for the Patriots are the aging defense and overcoming the mental barrier of losing the Super Bowl, a perfect season, and the title as greatest team ever all in one game. That alone will be enough to cause a few losses throughout the season as they work the bumps out.

I think the most exciting games in 2008 will occur between the Patriots and the New York Jets. Last year, the Jets didn't have the firepower to compete with the Patriots, but with Brett Favre slinging for the Jets, some revenge for Spygate isn't out of the realm of possibility. So go to your friend's house with NFL Sunday Ticket to make sure you see those games in Weeks 2 and 11.

Prediction: 12-4

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are probably not quite ready to sincerely challenge the Patriots for the division championship. Add in the potentially improved Jets and Dolphins and it could be a tough year for the Bills to finally secure a wild card spot.

The Bills don't have the quarterback necessary to be an elite team. Trent Edwards looks like he could have elite capabilities, but the Bills under Dick Jauron are going to feature Marshawn Lynch as much as they possibly can, which means Edwards won't become a great quarterback until either Jauron or Edwards leaves Buffalo.

One problem that seems to be facing Buffalo is the potential move to Toronto in the next few years. Whether rumor, realistic or anything in between, that has to be a far larger distraction than most teams are dealing with.

Prediction: 10-6

New York Jets

What can you really say? Before the trade, I had the Jets at 4-12. I've worked it out to get them to 7-9, but who really knows how they'll do? I really think we're dealing with the most unpredictable team and the most unpredictable player in Favre.

The investment in Thomas Jones will continue to payoff for the Jets as they'll have a more competent and threatening passing game under Favre that will loosen up defenses a bit. Add to that premier fullback Tony Richardson and not only should Jones be off to the races, but Favre will have an extra source of protection in the passing game with Richardson.

Hopefully, the defense can continue to keep the games close and Favre and company can put away the victories.

Prediction: 7-9

Miami Dolphins

Five years ago, I was a big Chad Pennington supporter. I really thought he was the next Joe Montana. The similar poise, confidence, and accuracy were uncanny, but injury and what I'll bill as a lack of mental confidence have led to his downfall. I was honestly quite surprised when the Jets kicked Pennington to the curb so quickly. Would there be no team willing to give up a late round pick for a potential starting quarterback, or even a veteran backup quarterback. I guess the Jets didn't feel like shopping him around, but he landed in Miami as part of one of the biggest team makeovers in sports history.

I think Tony Sparano will be a great NFL head coach, but it will take more than one year to turn the pathetic 1-15 Dolphins of 2007 into a contender.

Prediction: 4-12

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:02 AM | Comments (3)

August 12, 2008

2008 Fantasy Football Preview: QB/RB

August is a month of new beginnings. For much of the nation, schools will be reopening their doors after summer hiatus. Throngs of eager literati will be closing the book on their boring old lazy days of summer and opening their minds anew for another thrilling year of scholastic growth and heavily-structured days.

This month also marks the unofficial start of Major League Baseball's "second season," when teams are deciding once and for all if they'll just be waiting for next year and playing out the string or if they are going for the gusto in overcoming the "dog days" for a shot a postseason glory. August also is the time of year where those of us in the Gulf Coast states watch the Weather Channel a little more intently as that pesky hurricane season kicks into high gear.

However, perhaps the most important "new beginning" that faces most of us in August is the brand new fantasy football season that will be upon us sooner rather than later. Most leagues hold their drafts in August and with those drafts comes the prospect of glory for any man, woman, or child who chooses to partake in one of the millions of fantasy football leagues operated worldwide.

Far too often, prospective team owners go into their drafts unawares and unprepared for the work at hand. Either their preferred "custom" rankings come from an organization/publication that overvalues promptness and are issued in mid-June (invariably these lists miss the finer points and details that can only be picked up on once teams start their camps in late July), or, worse, they try to wing it based on what they know of last season's results (a monumentally disastrous approach, just ask anyone who drafted Shaun Alexander last season). I will say, if you don't fall into either of these categories, than you may well have a firm grasp on your prospective draft strategy. However, I do invite you to review the projections I have detailed, as recent history has been very good to the Thomas System (no trademark pending).

As a public service to those of you who do participate in fantasy leagues, but just aren't up to creating your own rankings, this series of articles will serve as your proverbial balefire, outlining the top players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and Individual D) complete with a handy explanation on the "how's" and "why's". As a bonus to those of you who play in a league where team defenses are used (I do not), I've rated THE TOP 10 defense/special team units.

This first entry focuses on the QB and RB positions.

A Word on Scoring

QUARTERBACKS

As always, signal-callers are a huge part of any fantasy football team's successful equation. This season, however, their importance is compounded as, for the first time for as long as I can recall, I would rank three QBs in the overall top 10. Be warned: beyond the first four candidates on my list (which all would get second round or better recommendations), the remaining QB offerings won't really bring value until the fourth round or later. Moreover, if you can wait until rounds 5-7 where you can pick up a productive sleeper at the position, you'll be much better served using your top four selections on some from the shorter-than-ever list of top-tier running backs.

THE TOP 10

1. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (4,068 yds, 35 TD, 16 INT, 3 rushing TD) — Romo barely edges out Tom Brady this year in my rankings as a result of his schedule. The Cowboys play the third easiest passing schedule in football, while the Pats fall somewhere in the middle of the pack. His turnover numbers remain high, but he buoys this with an impressive yardage and TD output, but it is his propensity to scramble for a few scores in the red zone that give him the added few points to boost him over Brady oh-so-subtly.

2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (4,242/36/16 with 4 lost fumbles) — Last year's record-breaking performance pushed Tom Terrific into the upper echelon of fantasy heroes, and for good reason. While it isn't out of the question to think he will duplicate his otherworldly numbers of 2007, his schedule pits him against some of the best defensive backs in the game today (Champ Bailey, DeAngelo Hall, Patrick Surtain, and Antonio Cromartie, to name a few) which is going to result in him turning the ball over more often. While the balance of his schedule will provide favorable matchups, the re-emphasis that Bill lBelichik has indicated he'll be putting on the run will steal some value as will those tougher matchups that he does have to face.

3. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (4,028/33/13) — No surprise here ... the elder Manning brother remains one of the greatest QBs ever to play the game and while he may start slowly due to his offseason knee surgery, he is sure to put up similar numbers to years past and is a very safe early round pick regardless of format.

4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (4,099/31/12/4 fum) — With the possible exception of Romo, no QB on this list has more potential to truly have a special year than Brees. His accuracy, combined with the addition of Jeremy Shockey as an inside target and the potential maturation of Reggie Bush makes Brees an intriguing play. His TD numbers could well soar in 2008 and he should keep his INT totals low, which could put his statistical output far above what I've predicted. While Brees is not quite a first-round pick, he would provide excellent value as a third-rounder and is quite worthy of a second round selection.

5. Vince Young, Tennessee Titans (3,136/18/13 plus 640/6 rushing) — Don't be fooled by his high rating here; there is a precipitous drop-off between my top four and Young, who stands atop my second tier of QB prospects. V.Y. has the potential to cut his INT rate down significantly if he learns to stop forcing his passes and uses his legs a bit more, which smart money says he will finally grasp in '08. He has shown growth on every level each year he has played, and this should be no different as he has a breakout season for the Titans.

6. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (3,697/30/18) — Palmer is a tricky guy to figure out. His predicted yardage totals look low to me, especially when considering the relative ease of their schedule, particularly against the pass. But he will continue to throw lots of picks as the Bengals still don't have a truly scary rushing attack to keep defensive backfields from clogging up his passing lanes. Still, with T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson running routes for him and the addition of TE Ben Utecht, his potential to have those 300-yard, 5-TD weeks makes him a very tempting option.

7. Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins (3,428/24/9/5 fum) — Campbell has had an excellent offseason, showing significant growth in his grasp of the offense. His low INT totals make him a solid weekly play.

8. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (3,232/26/16) — Big Ben has been a popular guy in most publications as a candidate to truly have a special year as a passer. I'm not buying that. He'll be solid, to be sure, but he is not the type to truly dazzle with sustained passing excellence, so I'd figure on Ben sitting in the middle of most every major passing stat leader board once the dust settles on the 2008 season, making him a solid but unspectacular fantasy option.

9. Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers (3,672/26/14) — While the annually underrated Delhomme is coming off a significant injury, the fact remains that his Panthers play the single easiest passing schedule in the league. The team suspension of Steve Smith will cut into his productivity, but only slightly, as a resurgent Carolina team will surprise many and Jake stands to gain the most from this.

10. Brett Favre, New York Jets (3,662/26/16) — Favre on the J-E-T-S makes this Dolphin lover very, very upset. But in the spirit of this article, Brett should light up the New York sky with his passing heroics en route to a typically Favre-like 2008 campaign. While there is little chance he'll put up the numbers he did in '07, he is a very solid play and would be an excellent weekly option for any prospective fantasy champion.

THE BEST OF THE REST

11. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders (3,887/24/17)
12. Matt Hasselback, Seattle Seahawks (3,395/23/14)
13. David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars (2,858/20/9)
14. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles (3,120/22/11)
15. Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams (3,361/22/15)
16. Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos (3,358/20/14)
17. Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns (3,072/23/16)
18. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (3,225/22/14)
19. Eli Manning, New York Giants (3,075/22/16)
20. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans (3,289/19/12)
21. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (3,054/19/14)
22. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3,034/17/10)
23. Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals (2,988/18/12)
24. Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions (3,278/17/16)
25. Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings (2,746/13/14/4 rushing TDs)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins: Could be rejuvenated under Bill Parcells' watchful eye in Miami and with two games each against week coverage units in New York and Buffalo along with that oh-so-inviting St. Louis contest on the schedule, Pennington will be good for at least a half dozen quality weeks.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: The popular rookie has the "goods," but don't be seduced by the talent you see him show in the preseason. Atlanta's schedule is absolutely brutal against the pass and it will be a learning season to say the least for Mr. Ryan.

RUNNING BACKS

Running backs are the difference-makers in fantasy football, with apologies to the 2007 version of Tom Brady and 2004's Peyton Manning. Without a solid team core built on a solid corps of backs, it is very difficult to field even a competitive fantasy squad, much less a winning one. This reality becomes even further eye-opening when scanning the list of backs for 2008. More than any other year, this should prove to be the year of the running-back-by-committee, which while a productive strategy for real life NFL squads, it makes picking backs that can guarantee a weekly contribution to your fantasy efforts more difficult than tackling Barry Sanders in the open field.

Having said all this, there are some runners to be had that will get the bulk of their team's carries. There are even some that are destined to split time that are well worth having, but I would strongly recommend that if you net yourself any of those such options that you are diligent in obtaining their running mate, if for no other reason than to protect your investment.

The Top 25

1. LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (1,424 yards, 17 TD, 424 receiving yds, 4 TD) — Not yet, Mr. Peterson. Until proven otherwise, L.T. is still "the man" when talking about the RB position in any fantasy draft. If you have the No. 1 pick, don't even hesitate — make this pick.

2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (1,378/15/470/5) — As you can see, the projected numbers are very close between A.P. and L.T. The "x-factor" is Adrian's health — he is a liability to miss at least a game or two — but even with those two missed weeks, you should be committed if you pass this guy up if he is on the board when you pick (assuming L.T. is not).

3. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts (1,413/12/370/2) — Many fantasy experts tried to convince the masses that Addai was worthy of this high praise going into last year and I warned you all then that he wasn't quite ready for prime time. Well, he is now.

4. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles (1,183/7/687/3) — Even though he gets a good half-dozen or so TDs vultured from him each year, Westbrook is one of the most productive and reliable runners available. Having settled (finally) on his long-term contract extension, there should be no roadblocks to Westbrook putting up the numbers we've come to expect from him.

5. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys (998/14/308/2) — Barber will get more carries in '08, even with Felix Jones riding shotgun in Big D. He is a powerful runner who is quick to the hole, which makes him a very comforting player to have on your roster; he isn't subject to those 20-carry, 35-yard weeks. His value is compounded since he is the red zone option for one of the more prolific offenses in pro football; however, he does play a very strong run schedule, so I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't quite hit the numbers I've projected for him.

6. Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs (1,204/11/289/3) — Don't sweat L.J.'s relatively disappointing 2007 season. He will bounce back as K.C. has strengthened their line a bit and plays a slightly easier schedule. Not to mention, his QB will have another season of experience under their belt, which will hopefully lighten the attention load and free up a little running room for Johnson.

7. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills (1,218/9/327/2) — Lynch had a great rookie campaign in '07 and seems poised to follow that up with a strong '08 season. His versatility will help as he will remain a three-down back, however, be a little wary of his injuries; he does get dinged up week-to-week, so be sure you have a solid No. 2 back if Lynch is your No. 1.

8. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (1,155/8/478/2) — That Gore is even in the top 10 is a testament to his ability. San Francisco's offense is an unmitigated disaster and even the great Mike Martz will have a tough time ironing that mess out. Still, Gore is such a good mix of speed and power that he remains very much a solid, reliable performer. TDs will not be what you'd hope for from a top back, but you should be able to steal him mid-to-late round two, which would give you excellent value.

9. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (1,056/10/395/2) — Jones-Drew wound up being a bit overvalued last season due to Fred Taylor's resurgence, but keep in mind that Taylor's '07 season was a surprise for a reason: he's old and frail. Jones-Drew stands to gain from this reality as there is little chance Taylor will match his performance from last season, which will greatly increase Mo's usage. Added bonus: Jones-Drew gets a pile of return yards and at least one score a season so keep that in mind if your league gives points to individual special team performances.

10. Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins (900/7/527/4) — Before Brown went down to that devastating knee injury last season, he was the top point-scorer among all running backs. While he will be hard-pressed to regain that form so quickly, by Week 5 he should be back to his normal self and will be poised to finish strong. Look for much more contribution from Brown in the short passing game.

11. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins (1,029/10/256/2) — Some publications say that Portis is poised for a breakout season, others say watch for Ladell Betts to get some of his carries. I expect Portis to have a strong season, but I do see Betts getting more time than he has in the past. I see Portis taking more of the red zone carries than I think many expect, which will boost his TD total nicely.

12. Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens (1,324/8/275/1) — All indications are McGahee is ready to have a strong season handling an uncharacteristically heavy workload. His yardage total certainly should reflect this new commitment to the run, however the team will likely still have a tough time scoring touchdowns, which has been the downfall of this franchise since its move to Baltimore.

13. Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots (1,029/12/111/1) — Maroney will, if nothing else, get lots of chances to score. I liked him a great deal more prior to the signing of Lamont Jordan, but I see that more of an insurance policy for the oft-injured Maroney than anything else. Look for the skilled New England runner to miss a few games, but put up strong numbers over the balance of the season.

14. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (1,169/7/342/2) — I know what you're thinking, and I agree ... this is very low for Jackson. Assuming he plays in '08 at all (he was still holding out at time of this writing), definitely expect a down year. First and foremost, he missed a pile of preseason training regardless of how his contract situation plays out, so expect a very slow start. Add that to a diminished passing attack and a much weaker o-line, and the ingredients for a very disappointing season are certainly in place. That said, if he is holding out on your league's draft day, see if you can't pick him up in round four; he would be one heck of a steal at that spot if he does play at all in 2008.

15. LenDale White, Tennessee Titans (1,083/11) — If White were even remotely a threat to catch a pass or two, he would fly up this list to the top 10. White is a powerhouse of a runner with sneaky speed and great running instincts. This is one of those guys that will win you a championship; you grab him early in round four, before he's on anyone else's mind, and take his 15 points a week on top of the other two stud runners you picked in rounds 1-3.

16. Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns (1,163/8) — Lewis's body is aging and has been used liberally, to say the least, in his NFL career. Still, he is a rare mix of power and speed and is usually good for three or four absolutely huge games each season, which makes him a valuable commodity as a No. 2 or 3 back. Some may overvalue him, so don't be surprised if he is drafted in rounds 1-3, but I would abstain from looking in his direction until at least round four, even though I may have him ranked higher than some other legit third-round options.

17. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (1,080/9) — This issue with Jacobs is how much will he get used. Ahmad Bradshaw looked good enough late last season and through the playoffs to tempt the defending world champs into utilizing him a bit more. The good thing about the bruising Jacobs is that he will, without fail, be their short yardage guy, which means lots of scoring opportunities. I still like Jacobs to top 1,000 yards, but do keep an eye on how Bradshaw is used, particularly late in the preseason, to be sure you don't reach for Jacobs.

18. Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (971/8/247/1) — Graham came out of nowhere last season to put up some decent numbers for the Bucs. Expect more of the same, though the return to health of Cadillac Williams and the presence of Warrick Dunn will cost him some carries.

19. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers (964/8/227/1) — As good as Grant looked at times in '07, much of his early success came as a result of poor preparation by his opponents. Expect many of the teams they play this season to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers to make plays, shutting down the straight-line running Grant.

20. Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints (632/5/600/4) — I bet you thought you had finally heard the last of Reggie as a top-tier option ... wrong. While Bush may never be the running threat that many had pegged him as in the NFL, his two-dimensional ability make him a threat to put up huge week each and every week; problem is, you never know when it will come. Rest assured, though, late last season it was clear that Bush was beginning to understand that he won't be able to outrun the league to the edge as he did in college, which means he'll be more consistent with his weekly yardage output.

21. Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals (1,077/6/166/1) — Edge is a curious selection. He could return to form any time and put up a 1,300-yard/15-score season. However, he just doesn't seem to run with the passion that he once had and he has made no secret of the fact that he isn't your typically live-to-play-football kind of guy. That said, he is still a talent and will put up decent numbers for a continuously improving Arizona team.

22. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders (996/6/262/1) — Let me be very clear here: McFadden could potentially be this year's Adrian Peterson. However, a suspect set of blockers and the ever bumbling ways of the Raiders may cost him that opportunity. Still, I am a believer that things are beginning to turn around for the Silver and Black, which would make McFadden an inviting pick in the latter stages of rounds four and five.

23. Thomas Jones, New York Jets (912/6/146/1) — Ironically, the one guy who could stand to gain the most from Favre's addition to the roster might actually lose the most. The freedom that Favre is likely to be given will mean less opportunities for Jones to do his thing and, while he will get used, he certainly won't get overused which will cut into his productivity considerably.

24. Selvin Young, Denver Broncos (880/6/227/1) — With rookie Ryan Torain falling victim to a preseason injury, Young may do even better than these projections suggest. Still, it remains to be seen if the ex-Longhorn can handle a heavy pro workload.

25. Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals (889/8) — I can guarantee you this: Rudi Johnson will not be on anybody's priority list come draft day. He will, however, be part of re-emphasized running attack in Cincy, which should translate into scoring chances. You may get laughed at, but don't be afraid to snag Rudi in rounds five or six. You have my word that he'll pay dividends.

THE BEST OF THE REST

26. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (1,223/4/245)
27. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers (1,103/4/155/1)
28. Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions (841/6/117/1)
29. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (800/6/163/1)
30. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (836/6/147/1)
31. Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys (754/4/226/2)
32. Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars (864/5/90/1)
33. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers (672/7/134)
34. Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins (795/3/304)
35. Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (581/5/116/1)
36. Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings (585/4/198/1)
37. Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks (646/4/135/1)
38. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta Falcons (594/2/269/1)
39. Warrick Dunn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (424/3/228/2)
40. Ahman Green, Houston Texans (616/4/133)

TAKE A CHANCE ON: Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints — With McAllister's health a huge question mark again and Bush clearly not an every down back, Thomas is a strong potential sleeper with tremendous upside. OR ... Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens: As a rookie, expectations for Rice will be low to non-existent. But he has great hands and is tough to tackle, a good combination to have and on an underachieving offense in Baltimore, he may well get plenty of opportunity to shine.

STAY FAR AWAY FROM: Sammy Morris, New England Patriots: His run as New England's backup to Moreney is over. That makes him an injury-prone part time runner with little speed ... not exactly a calling card to success. AND ... Chris Brown, Houston Texans: Every year, he dazzles owners with one or two superlative performances. Every year, he sits on the bench with a stubbed toe or a hangnail or a bruised ego ... do yourself a favor, don't put yourself through that again just because he's on a team that needs a runner.

As you can see, many things have changed from last season in the fantasy football realm. Hopefully, this missive and the two that follow (WR/TE and K/Defense) will serve as your guided tour to getting yourself in that position to hoist your own fantasy football championship trophy come January. Stay tuned!

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:55 AM | Comments (5)

The Curse of the Rambino?

Look on the bright side, or at least one of the bright sides, if you were that badly fed up with the manchild and his act. This time, the big Boston Red Sox bombardier who'd sulked, pouted, loafed, contempted, and disgusted his way out of town didn't end up going to the South Bronx.

Otherwise, admit it. If you're as longtime a citizen of Red Sox Nation as I, the phrase crept for even a nanosecond into the folds of your mind, when the news arrived that Manchild Ramirez had been stripped of his Red Sox silks at last, by way of a three-way swap making a Los Angeles Dodger of him and a Red Sox out of Jason Bay.

It crept there because, for all his misbehaviors and likely clubhouse divisiveness, of the sort that's crept slowly back into public revelation over the past few days, you know that with Manchild the Olde Towne Team won two World Series in four seasons. Just the way they had done as the 1920 season approached, and as a different Red Sox ownership had had it up to there and beyond with a similarly petulant star with a hunger for money and an inability to comport himself to within at least minimal expectations of civil or committed behavior.

So the Red Sox, from enough of the clubhouse to enough of the front office, finally had it with Manchild Being Manchild. Just as the Red Sox, from enough of the clubhouse to enough of the front office, once finally had it with the Babe Being the Babe. The only difference between the two endings is that they sent Manchild to be Manchild in Los Angeles while still the defending World Series champions. They sent the Babe to be the Babe in New York after a season as defending World Series champions. The similarities are striking enough otherwise if you care to look closely.

First, a reading from the scene of the crime, if such is what you'd consider it, courtesy of the man who elevated The Curse of the Bambino from a fancifully logical notion (advanced first, October 26, 1986, by George Vecsey of the New York Times) to a catechism.

During the All-Star break, Manny made remarks critical of Sox ownership regarding his past contract negotiations. Owner John W. Henry responded with an e-mail in which he said he was "personally offended."

Nine days ago, prior to the final game of a West Coast trip, Manny told Francona he was unable to play because of a previously unreported knee injury. The tipping point came one week ago when Manny pulled the same stunt before the first game of a three-game set with the Yankees.

That was it. The Sox decided they were done with him. They'd been Manny's prisoner too long. It was unanimous upstairs. Henry, Tom Werner, Larry Lucchino, Theo Epstein, and [Terry] Francona were all steamed. One teammate called Manny's bailout "a disgrace." The Sox sent him out for an MRI on both knees, then made sure the media knew he was not injured. They threatened to suspend Manny if he didn't play the next day. Manny played.

Then he started yapping. He said he was done with them. He said they didn't deserve him.

Theo and the minions went to work. Manny had stripped the Sox of most of their leverage, but they were intent on dealing him anyway. The Sox gave up a ton in this deal. They parted with their cleanup hitter. They gave up two prospects. They're paying Manny's salary. And they forfeited the two high draft picks they'd have gotten if they lost him to free agency. Bay is good, but he's not that good.

At the end, Manny didn't care about winning. He didn't care about anything except Manny and the ego-driven wallet measuring that motivates so many of today's superstars. He did the Sox no favors, shooting his way out of town, but he got what he wanted. He gets to play in Los Angeles for Joe Torre. He gets to work toward his next contract — money he'll never possibly have time to spend.

Ultimately, this trade is a demonstration of how badly Boston wanted to get rid of Manny. It wasn't about home runs or on-base percentage. But it had to be done out of fairness to the manager and the other 24 Red Sox players who are here to win.

— Dan Shaughnessy, "So Manny Memories," Boston Globe, July 31, 2008.

And if bits and pieces have seeped forth of late suggesting that Manchild's presence in the Red Sox clubhouse hasn't always been a case of a beloved if lunatic child eventually making his siblings remember why he's beloved in spite of his lunacy, perhaps few expressions could enunciate it better than that of Curt Schilling, whose spirit is never unwilling even if his body continues demanding, "Who, me?"

At the end of the day you're taking the field with a guy who doesn't want to play with you, doesn't want to be there, doesn't want to ... obviously effort-wise is just not there and that's disheartening and disappointing.

Would I be the only guy in the New England area that said no if I [thought it was time for Manchild to go]? I think I'm probably with the consensus. It's very obvious from anything you see or hear he doesn't want to be here. And anytime that there's a piece of the equation you have a problem, and then not trading and leaving him here is a problem because you don't know what you're going to get.

— Schilling, on WEEI's Dennis and Callahan Show.

Now, permit yourself to read from your ancient history, courtesy of a Boston scribe on a mission to make sense of what would come soon enough to seem the utmost nonsense in arterials not the Yankees'.

In fact, only two weeks ago the Boston Sunday Post gave a very plain as well as exclusive hint to its readers that [Babe] Ruth was on the baseball market, and that the New York Yankees would probably make an offer for him. Those nearest the Red Sox administration could see the handwriting on the wall when Babe, after leaving the Sox in the lurch at Washington late last September, jumped to the coast and forced the Boston management to endure censure and ridicule for his non-appearance in the lineup.

At that time it was felt that relations between the club and the heavy hitter were severely strained, and those who could read between the lines began to understand that Babe instead of proving the imagined bulwark of the Boston team was in reality proving a decided menace to the welfare of the team.

When even Ruth's fellow players began to complain and show their dissatisfaction over the privileges that Babe took without leave, the management was forced to the conclusion that with Ruth remaining a member of the team harmony in the Red Sox family was impossible.

When Ruth, refusing to abide by the conditions of the three-year contract signed by himself last spring, and in which he practically forced the management to concede him a salary of $10,000 per annum, sent that contract back to the team without word of any kind and then issued his ultimatum to the California writers, stating that he would not play under $20,000, President Frazee decided that the time had come for Ruth to pass on, and in consequence he began to give ear to the plea of the New York management, who have always been eager to get the home run hitter as a Polo Ground attraction.

— Paul H. Shannon, Boston Post, January 6, 1920.

So you succumbed even for the moment to the awful temptation. You allowed yourself for the slimmest of moments to ponder that from here the Red Sox's once surrealistically awful history — a history once garnished by more extraterrestrial disaster on the threshold of redemption than any baseball team should have had to endure and transcend — might begin to repeat itself, the missing factor being precisely how long before the gods would elect to wring the new cost from the Red Sox's skins.

There were all kinds of reasons to succumb. Including, perhaps, the point that the Red Sox as transdimensional tragedy provoked some of the game's most lyric literature, while the Red Sox as transdimensional twice-in-four World Series ring wearers provokes something quite the opposite, without half the self-deprecating wit and most of the lyricism.

But now it comes time to remind you of what is different. And it only begins with the fact that the Ruth sale was probably linchpinned by a feud between American League president Ban Johnson — whose thought that pitcher Carl Mays should have been suspended for jumping the Red Sox, rather than sold to the Yankees in advance of the Babe, precipitated a factional league split between Johnson's allies and the so-called Insurrectos (the Red Sox, the Yankees, and the Chicago White Sox) — and Frazee.

Because, this time, there's no feuding between American League factions over swap or sale or contract issues. This time, the Red Sox didn't telegraph, in fact or by implication, bigger moves by selling this or that key man in advance of the Manchild swap.

And, this time, there's no indication that the Red Sox's ownership has any plans to sell the club at all, never mind to the Bob Quinn-fronted syndicate which ended up providing the real Red Sox curse: boneheaded management that systematically stripped the Red Sox further of assets enough that might have kept them competitive even without the Babe. (Quick: Review the Yankee rosters of the Roaring Twenties and find how many former Red Sox ended up in The 'Stripes, one way or the other.)

The similarities also continue with a point that will precipitate such regret as embraces Red Sox Nation in the wake of the Manchild's departure for points West: he may well be one of the smartest hitters and the biggest jerk who ever wore the Red Sox uniform.

"Good hitters out there will [swing and miss pitches on purpose]," said Darrell Rasner, a Yankee pitcher who isn't exactly alone in glee that they won't have Manchild (and his 55 career bombs against the Empire Emeritus) to kick them around anymore. "Because you start to think, 'Oh, I've got the guy on this one.' Then you throw that pitch again, and, bam, it's gone."

I write as a man whose mind has been yanked into change. No, silly, not about Ramirez's smarts at the plate. Until now, however, I couldn't recall anything coming from the Manchild's rap sheet that might possibly inspire a myth that he once tried to hang his manager over the rear end of a speeding anything. Babe Ruth never actually did that to Miller Huggins, but the legend held tight enough for years enough, and the Babe committed enough atrocities against human civility without having to rest accused eternally of attempted manslaughter.

For all that he's quit on or ragged on his team or its administration, not even his worst enemy has ever accused the Manchild, that I could recall, of thinking aloud that there but for the lack of hitting against his own pitching staff might he have ended up with a league home run championship. Dick Stuart, slugging it out against Harmon Killebrew directly, on 1963's final weekend for the bomb title, after hitting two over the wall to Killebrew's five: "Hell, Killebrew had a distinct advantage. If I could have hit against our pitching staff, I'd have hit 10."

Nobody has ever caught the Manchild, that I could recall, refusing to curtain call or tip a cap after crossing the plate off a majestic launch, never mind gobbing one in the fans' direction after a roasting following a spell of less than sterling at-bats. That was Ted Williams's act. And nobody has ever caught the Manchild, that I could recall, yanking his crotch and yelling at the pitcher off whom he'd just hit another skyrocket. That was part of Carl Everett's style, at least when taking Jamie Moyer long distance.

And no one had any reason to charge, as best as I knew, that the 2004 World Series MVP, without whom the Olde Towne Team wouldn't have won the 2007 World Series as well, led or was a significant enough part of a team move to give the grounds crew pocket change and stiff the clubhouse people entirely when it came time to divide the World Series shares. Pitcher Bruce Hurst and infielder Marty Barrett ended up giving those people more money out of their own then-record-for-losing-clubs 1986 World Series shares.

Oh, yes. There's one more comparison between the Manchild and the Babe. They each have more World Series rings, won with and for the Red Sox, than Dr. Strangeglove, Teddy Ballgame, Snarling Carl, or any member of the 1986 Woe Sox. None of which acquitted either, in the end, when it came to whether they'd be the men least likely to inspire hearts and flowers in the Red Sox clubhouse any longer.

"Every year," said catcher Jason Varitek, after the Los Angeles Angels had waxed the Red Sox for a second consecutive series sweep and a seventh win in eight tries on the season to date, "this is like this. This is so out of our hands. And even this year it's out of our hands. I just think this team needs to take a step past that and focus on playing baseball. It's easy to point a finger that that is the issue. So the issue has to change in here."

And, so it has. Especially if you take the word of a Boston newspaper essayist, who notes that, in spring, when a group of cancer-stricken children sponsored by the Jimmy Fund made a trip to Fort Myers, Florida, and a group including most Red Sox players greeted and spent time enough with them, there was a missing Manchild among them.

The tent was no more than 90 feet from the ballpark, which means Ramirez could have been there in 5.7 seconds, even going his usual half-speed.

But he declined this year, just as he has declined for the last six. And, as always, no one was surprised. Why should he care about a bunch of sick teenagers when he doesn't care about his teammates or his manager or the fans who enabled him and apologized for him for 7 1/2 years?

Well, you can say goodbye to the bad guy now. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Maybe Jason Bay will not be quite the cleanup hitter that Ramirez was (then again, maybe he will be), but we know this much before he even takes the field for the Red Sox: he is a better fielder, a better baserunner, a better teammate, a better person.

He probably won't fake a knee injury, or slap a teammate, or throw a 64-year-old man to the ground because he couldn't make tickets magically appear. He won't give the manager ulcers or spit in the owners' eye or treat the paying customers like suckers.

Just a guess here, but the kids from the Jimmy Fund Clinic are making the trip to Chicago next week. Bay will probably say hello.

There was always something uneasy about the love and adoration that Red Sox fans showered on Ramirez. The hard-hitting half-wit was born with the ability to put a bat on ball better than most mortals, but that's where his virtues end. He doesn't play the game right. Too often he doesn't play the game hard. He cares about his contract and his hair and not much else.

He didn't care about the wounded troops at Walter Reed Army Medical Center this past February. When most of his teammates, including all of the big stars, made the trip to Washington, he stayed behind. Probably no one on the team had the ability to make a down-on-his-luck Sox fan smile like Manny Ramirez did, but as usual, Ramirez couldn't be bothered. As usual, teammates, fans, and media made excuses for him. Again, the great hitter was allowed to be a rotten human being.

In a way, Ramirez represents the worst of professional sports — a man who is idolized because he has one, God-given physical skill. Some fans who would boo a player for popping up with the bases loaded had no problem cheering Ramirez days after he assaulted Red Sox traveling secretary Jack McCormick, a terrific gentleman who is almost 30 years older than the slugger.

According to his old high school coach, Ramirez promised to buy bats and balls and uniforms — things he could have gotten for free — for his needy alma mater. Last we checked, 17 years after he left school for the pros, the kids were still waiting. Their idol, their hero, the man who has made almost $200 million since he left George Washington High School in the Bronx, just couldn't be bothered.

Red Sox owners treated Manny the Mutt like Leona Helmsley treated her Maltese. This season, reigning National League MVP Jimmy Rollins has been benched twice by the Phillies for violating team rules. As far as we know, Manny has never been benched or suspended by the Sox. The owners literally knocked down walls for him, making the Sox clubhouse more comfortable for this spoiled child.

And how does he repay them for their love and loyalty? By calling them liars and backstabbers. By saying they don't deserve a player like him.

And in the end, he was right about that. The Red Sox deserve better, and yesterday they got that in Bay. Maybe not a better hitter, but a better all-around player and a much better teammate ... The team formerly known as Dem Bums just got the biggest bum of them all.

— Gerry Callahan, "No Dodging It," Boston Herald, August 1, 2008.

It hasn't changed, for reasons enunciated earlier, to the point that the Red Sox will prove to have spent the coming 84 years in the seventh dimension, branded yet again as the team that not only falls to the rocks below after reaching the threshold peak to the Promised Land, but finds a newer and less earthbound way to precipitate the fall.

For one thing, this time they traded the Manchild who had to go to someplace other than the Yankees. To the other league. To the Dodgers, who seem to love talking about their history without making much of one nowadays (credit Tracy Ringolsby for the locution), and who aren't going to go from here to win a 21st Century-record 37 pennants and 29 World Championships.

The Henry/Lucchino/Epstein regime isn't going to go from here to pass it on to the spiritual heirs to Bob Quinn and Tom Yawkey, ripping things apart, feeding someone else the keys to the Promised Land while saving the scraps for the Red Sox, before trying and failing to win with a crowd of sluggers, a lack of pitching, and an abundance of tunnel vision in the front office.

Manchild wins. It doesn't mean the Red Sox are guaranteed to lose. Even if the sight of Jason Bay checking in at the plate doesn't inspire enemy managers to order the free pass even with David Ortiz — who's likely to spend a little more walking time himself in the weeks to come, unless Jason Being Jason turns out to be a sleeper of a slugger beyond his seasonal statistical comparability to Manchild (which he might yet prove, based upon his early Red Sox performance papers) — the next man up.

It doesn't mean, going in, that the Red Sox future includes anything much resembling a future late throw from center inspiring charges of a shortstop holding the ball on the edge of the outfield grass; a lifting of an effective starter in the enemy ballpark with a pennant on the line; a speed merchant's collapse rounding third with a pennant race in the balance; a pinch-hitting for an effective relief pitcher; an eephus pitch getting vaporized for a Game Seven, two-run bomb, the night after an eleventh-hour bomb allows the Red Sox to play a World Series for one more day; a puny shortstop's single-game playoff waft over the Monster; a gimpy first baseman's ankles turning to a croquet wicket after a wild pitch that should have been scored a passed ball allows a tying run with the Red Sox a strike away from breaking a curse, actual or alleged; or, a tiring starter left in a hitter too long, leading to an epic relief duel into the extras, ended only by nondescript third baseman's first-pitch, leadoff launch into the left field seats for game, set, and the other guy's pennant.

I don't believe in curse. I believe you make your own destination.

— Manny Ramirez, just moments after copping the award as the 2004 World Series' Most Valuable Player.

The Manchild had his inspiring moments. But he isn't going to inspire a Curse of the Rambino.

We think.

________________________________________

Today's secret word: Manny

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:28 AM | Comments (0)

August 11, 2008

Could the Panthers Win the Super Bowl?

Many of you may well think I am crazy for the article that I am about to write, but that's probably because I am a little crazy. Here it comes, get ready ... I believe that the Carolina Panthers will be competing in the Super Bowl on February 1, 2009. And not only will they compete, they will lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

As the dust settled on the 2003 NFL season, the Panthers were beginning to harbor dreams of returning to the Super Bowl and going one step further than they had when they came up against the formidable New England Patriots. However, for one reason or another, Carolina couldn't get the job done and sadly for the Charlotte-based team, they have only appeared in the playoffs once in the last four seasons since that Super Bowl defeat.

After a disappointing 7-9 season last time out, head coach John Fox will be keen to come out and have his team show improvement. And that is something that they should well do as the one key man healthy who was barely featured last season is veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. If the 33-year-old stays healthy after having Tommy John surgery on his elbow, then I firmly believe he will be one of the standout players this season, despite is advancing age.

Aside from the return of a quarterback who has guided the Panthers to the Super Bowl in the past and claims that his arm is better than ever, another player returning to the Carolina receiving core is Muhsin Muhammad. Muhsin is somewhat of a legend in Carolina and with good reason as he spent nine seasons at Bank of America Stadium. In the that time, he and Delhomme were a deadly combination as they linked up on numerous occasions. In fact, en route to the NFC Championship in 2003, Delhomme threw the ball successfully to Muhammad no less than 54 times for 837 yards. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't quite expect figures of that nature because of not only Delhomme's age, but also the age of Muhammad, as well, who is 35 and hasn't been as productive in recent years in Chicago.

Even though it is good news that Muhammad is back in town for the Panthers faithful, surely Steve Smith will be their number one receiver. It's little surprise as the man is incredible, posting 1,000+ yards in each of the last three seasons. However, Smith will not be playing in the first two games of the season thanks to a suspension after attacking his own teammate, cornerback Ken Lucas, thus opening the door for new arrival D.J. Hackett to step in and show what he is worth.

Hackett is a player who had a solid career in Seattle, though it was littered by injuries. Nevertheless, he will be keen to impress at the start of the season because he may well be playing for his place on the team. He as the potential to be a very good receiver, but only if he can stay fit and recapture the kind of form that he showed in his senior year at the University of Colorado when he managed 78 receptions for an impressive 1,013 yards.

At running back, the Panthers took former Pac-10 star Jonathan Stewart from the University of Oregon in the first round of this year's draft at 13th overall. In his first year at Oregon, he rushed for 981 yards, but last year, he showed obvious improvement as he utilized his power running in order to gain his team 1,722 yards over a total of 280 carries. I fully expect him to make the transition to the NFL with little trouble and with DeAngelo Williams in the backfield as company, the two of them could develop into one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL today. They are nothing spectacular, but they are effective.

In addition, Brad Hoover at full back is more than capable of running, but his talents are best seen when blocking. Hoover will help in giving rookie Stewart more protection, especially considering that the Panthers' offensive line is a little frail. That is with the exception of Jordan Gross at left tackle and Travelle Wharton at left guard. However, the right side of the offensive line could leave could leave Delhomme and their backs very vulnerable, which is no doubt why they acquired right tackle Jeff Otah in the draft, though he will have a lot to prove.

I have few doubts that the offense for the Panthers will be very impressive in the coming season, but it's not all smelling roses for Carolina, as they appear to have some obvious weaknesses on defense. Nowhere is this clearer than on the defensive line, a line that is normally bolstered by defensive end Julius Peppers, who he had a very mediocre season last year, managing only 38 tackles and 2.5 sacks. These stats were down considerably from the year before, when he posted 57 tackles and 13 sacks. If Peppers can come close to earning the $14.5 million that Carolina are paying him, then that will go a long way to repairing a seemingly shaky defensive line. They have captured Tyler Brayton from Oakland at defensive end and that is questionable at best, as he's been a poor player for four seasons out on the West Coast and in those four seasons, he only managed 6 sacks. Looks like Peppers will have his work cut out.

The secondary for the Panthers is a lot better with the likes of Richard Marshall, who intercepted 3 passes last season and broke up 11 more. And yet he was a bench player for most of the season, but I fully expect him to break into the starting lineup this time around. Ken Lucas is a decent cornerback, but there is talk that he will be moved to nickel in order to allow Marshall to play a more prominent role in the team; this would be a wise move as they can both make key plays. Elsewhere in the secondary, Charles Godfrey should be a good acquisition from this year's draft in the third round as he has a very good understanding of the game, reading what is going on with outstanding accuracy. Meanwhile, Chris Harris at strong safety is an average player who is a strong physical presence, but at times is let down by his coverage skills.

So, there it is. Yes, the Panthers have weaknesses, but they also have some major strengths. You also have to remember that they are in a weak division and the weaker of the two conferences. I don't actually expect a season such as 13-3 or 12-4, more like 11-5 or 10-6, maybe even a tad worse. They will not set the NFL on fire, but they should sneak into the playoffs and once they are there, anything can happen. The Panthers have proven in the past that they are a pretty good playoff team.

Just remember these words: "You don't have to be good, you just have to be good enough."

________________________________________

Today's secret word: Carolina

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 11:09 AM | Comments (4)

August 8, 2008

Dumb Trades in the NFL

In any major professional sports league, the most common trades involve a veteran who still has some gas in the tank exchanged for prospects or draft picks. The idea is a win-win deal, with a contending team securing a good player who can put them over the top, and the other team getting good, young players it can build around in the future.

In the last month, the NFL has seen two big trades that should have matched that formula, but didn't. Washington traded second- and sixth-round picks to the Dolphins for Jason Taylor, and the New York Jets traded a conditional pick — probably a third-rounder when all is said and done — for Brett Favre. Most trades like this — aging legends for draft picks — are win-win. Everyone in these trades was a loser.

The Dolphins came out the best. They gave up their best player, but if you listen to interviews with Taylor, it doesn't sound like he's very committed to a future in football. Miami got a good draft pick, and this is a team that now has a totally clean slate for a new start. The Dolphins are going to suck something awful this season, but they picked up a little help for the future, and three or four years from now, they'll be a better team for this trade. They can miss the playoffs this season with or without Taylor.

Washington's side of this is more puzzling. This trade would make perfect sense for a team that is "one player away" (as the saying goes). Unfortunately, last year's surprise playoff run notwithstanding, Washington is a lot more than one player away. And if the team were one player away, that player would be a quarterback, not a defensive lineman. Unless Jason Campbell unexpectedly turns into Sonny Jurgensen, the team isn't going anywhere this season.

Jason Taylor is still a great player, and I have little doubt that he'll make Washington better this year. Taylor probably adds a win, single-handedly, to Washington's record. The problem is that Taylor is likely to be the difference between, say, 6-10 or 7-9. Washington was not a contender before the Taylor trade, and it's not a contender now. I guess you just chalk it up to another Daniel Snyder trade, but it's silly for the team to give away a high draft pick in exchange for a player who won't help them win a championship this year, and will probably retire before next year.

If Washington's trade was a little stupid, though, the Jets are positively out of their minds. What on earth do they want Brett Favre for? I can understand why a team like the Bears or Vikings might have been interested in Brett Favre. Those are teams that could reasonably believe a good quarterback could make them serious contenders. The Jets went 4-12 last year. Inconsistent QB play was certainly part of the problem, but you don't go 4-12 without a little help from your friends.

Not to put too fine a point on this, but the Jets sort of suck, and they play in the same division as the Patriots. Now they have Favre, who is probably an upgrade over Kellen Clemens, but probably not enough to make the Jets anything more than a wild card contender. Even assuming that Favre meshes well with his new teammates and coaching staff, picks up an offense he's never played in before, and learns the playbook in less than a month — which I think are some pretty big "ifs" — what are the Jets getting? A legend who can still help a good team? Or a 38-year-old drama queen who cries if he doesn't get his way and has had two terrible seasons in the last three years?

Favre played well last year, and I voted for him for the Pro Bowl, same as everyone else. He deserved it. But the year before, he may have been the worst quarterback in the league, and in 2005, he certainly was. There are only eight quarterbacks who have started more than 40 games in the last three seasons. I've listed them below, ranked by the difference between their total passing TDs and interceptions over that time:

1] Tom Brady, +66
2] Peyton Manning, +57
3] Carson Palmer, +41
t4] Drew Brees, +34
t4] Matt Hasselbeck, +34
6] Ben Roethlisberger, +24
7] Eli Manning, +16
8] Brett Favre, +4

Since the start of the 2005 season, Favre has thrown 62 interceptions, more than any other player. Eli Manning has 55, and no one else has more than 45. If you're into math, what that means is that in the last three seasons, Favre has thrown about 33% more interceptions than anyone else except Eli Manning, which may not be a totally fair comparison, since 2005 was Manning's first full year as a starter, and he has improved considerably since then, while Favre has gotten older. He'll turn 39 the month after next. John Elway, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, and Steve Young all retired before they turned 39. Heck, so did Favre. The problem is that he's back.

Favre's un-retirement has damaged his legacy and revealed him as a deeply self-centered player. If the sports media talked incessantly about how great I was, I'd probably think the same thing after 15 years, but Favre is being unfair to the Packers, putting Aaron Rodgers in a terrible situation, overstepping his bounds, and just generally behaving like a ... um, jerk (since this is a more-or-less family-friendly publication). Right now, I feel pretty much the same way about Brett Favre that I did about Terrell Owens three years ago.

Green Bay is a loser here because Favre's selfish un-retirement has made the team look bad — especially since Favre has missed no opportunity to bad-mouth the organization that he played with for 16 years — and has dramatically increased the pressure on Rodgers, who has handled the whole thing professionally but is now in a no-win situation — unless Green Bay wins the Super Bowl, but that's not going to happen. Seriously. No.

I don't think it's at all clear that Favre makes the Jets better this year, and even if he does, he's one player on a team that needs a lot of help. I know the Jets have been active in free agency this year. They lost a lot of close games last year (3-7 in games decided by less than a touchdown) and had a tough schedule. This year's schedule looks pretty easy. But seriously, the Jets were 4-12 last year! Two of their wins came against a 1-15 team. This is not the 1999 Rams. A 39-year-old Favre is not a 28-year-old Kurt Warner, Tony Richardson is not Marshall Faulk, and Vernon Gholston is probably not Torry Holt. Also, the Jets have to play the Patriots twice, they're in the same conference as the Colts, Chargers, and Jaguars, and it appears that — after a few down seasons — there are real teams in the NFC again.

It's difficult to believe Favre will play anywhere near a Pro Bowl level this year, and it's ludicrous to think he can play at a high level for more than two seasons. What I see in this trade is the Jets giving up a decent draft pick, inheriting a headache with a monster ego, and compromising their search for a QB of the future.

Favre and Taylor will probably improve their new teams this season, and maybe next season if they stick around. But even if those players don't retire after the 2008 or 2009 season, it's unreasonable to believe either one could continue to perform at a high level after that point. And neither team — even with their new big-name players — appears to be a serious Super Bowl contender. These trades have made a lot of headlines, but they didn't make a lot of sense.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:33 AM | Comments (5)

August 7, 2008

Brett Favre Saga Ends With Trade to Jets

Brett Favre and the Packers had a nasty, ugly, public breakup. They tried to reconcile, but the jilted girlfriend just couldn't get over the fact that her former team cheated on her with another quarterback and didn't jump at the opportunity to take her back when she offered herself up.

Now the jilted girlfriend has a new team, and it's the New York Jets.

That's right, Hall of Famer Brett Favre is coming to New York. ESPN's Mark Schlereth has already predicted that he'll single-handedly shutdown Randy Moss, knock Tom Brady out of the league, and unseat the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

Not so sure about that, but with the announcement that they've traded for Brett Favre, the Jets at least let everyone know that the Patriots aren't the only team in the AFC East.

My only question is this: if you're Brett Favre, why come out of retirement to play for the Jets?

While quarterback play was an issue for the Jets last season, they also lacked any type of running game, their defense was soft and barely there at the end of the fourth quarter, and they have little to no shot at the playoffs next season.

Seriously, how do the Jets make the playoffs in an extremely crowded AFC?

They're not going to beat out the Patriots. The last time Favre played the Patriots, he lost 35–0. The last three times the Jets played the Patriots, it didn't work out too well for them, either.

Let's assume the Patriots win the AFC East (given that, conservatively, there are 12 wins on their schedule). In order for the Jets to make the playoffs, they need to leapfrog all of the following teams:

The Jaguars (not going to happen), the Titans (more likely), the loser of the Steelers/Browns battle (maybe because of their tough schedule), the Bengals (assuming they stay out of prison), the Broncos (better than their record last season), the Bills (who were better than the Jets last year, and have a crazy easy schedule down the stretch), and the Texans (who were only two games out of a playoff spot last season).

That's a lot of teams vying for one playoff spot.

The Tampa Bay Bucs made far, far more sense from a "going out with a bang" perspective because the NFC is a much, much easier conference to make the playoffs in.

Don't get me wrong, if this were the Brett Favre from 1998, the Jets would challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and they'd be one of the favorites to come out of the AFC behind the Pats, Colts, and Chargers.

But this is the 2008 version of Brett Favre, who despite is statistically tremendous season last year, is not nearly the Hall of Fame quarterback he used to be.

The Jets' biggest competition, the Patriots, are a terrible matchup for a Favre-quarterbacked team. Favre is a mistake-prone gunslinger who will make a team-killing play for every great play. The Patriots feature an opportunistic defense that thrives on mistake-prone quarterbacks.

I just don't see how this helps Brett Favre extend his legacy. A 9–7 season, just barely missing the playoffs? What's the point?

You can hold me to this. It's on the Internet. Once it's posted, I can't take it back.

The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets will not make the playoffs in 2008 unless Tom Brady suddenly retires (assuming he doesn't pull a Favre and unretire a few weeks later).

And even then, it's 50/50.

Now, that's not to say this is a bad move for the Jets. They don't have a quarterback worth a damn on their roster right now. Adding Brett Favre not only gives them good PR, but he's also a dramatic improvement over what they were going to throw out there.

Without Favre, they're a 4-to-6-win team. With Favre, they're a 7-to-9-win team. They go from the third best team in the AFC East to the second best team. They'll certainly sell more tickets, and they'll definitely score more points.

If I were a Jets fan, I'd be psyched.

Brett Favre doesn't have what it takes to lead a great team to the Super Bowl (see his overtime incredibly awful interception against the Giants last season), but he does have what it takes to make an average team exciting.

And with everything the Jets' fans have been through over the years, exciting isn't a bad thing.

Of course, cynical Internet columnists and New England sports fans like myself will enjoy pointing out the fact that the two most overrated players in professional sports (Derek Jeter and Favre) now play in the same city.

But then, who cares what I think?

The Jets are better today than they were last week, Jets fans have a reason to look forward to the season, the Packers can finally move on, Brett Favre can play football, and Packer fans can boo Aaron Rodgers for an entire season.

Everyone's happy!

Sean Crowe is a senior writer for Bleacher Report and writes a column for Sports Central every other Thursday. You can read more articles by Sean Crowe on his blog.

Posted by Sean Crowe at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

The Swiss Back Down to Earth With Federer

If you have followed my articles in the past, you may remember me blasting the French tennis fans for their outrageous critique of Amélie Mauresmo, Richard Gasquet, and others. You may remember me ranting about how unfair the British have treated Tim Henman over the years, and how Henman was never going to be able to satisfy their expectations.

Well, I am at it again. Although I have a few things to say, I will not be as harsh on the Swiss tennis fans. First of all, their situation is different than the Brits and the French. The Swiss are not starved for some player to rise to the top and give them the pleasure of looking down from the summit. Sure, the French have had successful players like Yannick Noah and Amelie Mauresmo over the years, but never an absolute reign on No. 1. For the Brits, the most proud moment on the men's side has been the invention of the name "Henman Hill" for the grassy area with the big screen, actually named Aorangi Terrace, on the grounds of Wimbledon.

The Swiss, on the other hand, have tasted perfection, the apogee of the tennis world, "the view from up above" if you will, for so many recent years with the likes of Martina Hingis and Roger Federer that for them the name of the problem is not starvation, but rather luxury. There is a whole generation of young Swiss tennis fans who are not even familiar with the idea of not having a player in the top five. Stanislas Wavrinka, the "other" Swiss player, gets the same treatment as the corner store owner, yet he is ranked in the ATP top 10!

Secondly, the Swiss' critique of Federer, even as of late, has remained "clean." After all, this is a country known for its immaculate appearance and its obsession for order and structure. In other words, they have steered clear of the "below the belt" comments, at least the severe kind to which the likes of Henman and Mauresmo have been subjected in abundance.

Last, but not the least, there are sufficient number of "Rodgeur" defenders among the Swiss, leaving Federer with still plenty of support, unlike the lonesome positions endured by the others. I was talking to a Swiss friend of mine who casually called them "raleurs," meaning grumpies, a group of whiners.

Nevertheless, I do have a few things to say to my Swiss friends, too.

My friends, your days of luxury are over. Of course, there is always a chance that Roger Federer could return to No. 1 (although with Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic around, he will never be as dominant as before), or that another Swiss player in the future could be at the top.

But don't think for one moment that you will have the luxury of another champion who conducts himself with class, shows respect for all other human beings while out-performing them on every level in the domain of performance stays above them, who remains somehow friendly to the media, who chooses to continue paying taxes instead of escaping to Monte Carlo (yes, this is a big issue with the European tennis players), and on top of all that, who is friendly with the ball boys, the guys who prepare the courts, and the waiters in the clubhouse!

And those of you who are positioned on the extreme...

In other words, you Swiss media members, who for one reason or another were in dire need to prove yourself right because you said a while back "he is expired" and yet, that day where you can say "I told you so," that day where Federer was going to be simply a lowly No. 2 player, was somehow not seeming to arrive...

Those of you, Swiss or not, who could not stand his plain but steady girlfriend Mirka Vavrinec, who found her too ugly, too boring for a man of such stature like Federer, who felt that Federer should have had a bombshell next to him, a la "all other celebrities" because, um, Roger has money...

Those of you ladies, again Swiss or not, who could not stand Mirka once again because she got to enjoy a different kind of luxury, one in which she gets to shop at the most exclusive stores, one in which she stays in the top hotels in the world, one in which she gets to display all her expensive earrings every time the camera focuses on her during the numerous Slam finals, in short, those of you who were waiting for the day where you can blame this "lucky" girl for Federer's descent, not considering once that maybe Mirka's qualities, not seen to the naked eye, may have a lot to do with Roger's success...

Those of you Swiss sports fans, who could not care less about tennis, and the man who kept on covering your cherished sports pages, even during the days of Euro 2008 (held partially in Switzerland, mind you?), those fans who kept blaming tennis and Federer for not being able to read enough about their "futbol" team who choked a lead away and was booted out of the competition very early, after losing to Turkey in the dying seconds of their match, those fans who find hitting a round hairy ball over a net to be trivial...

You guys can rejoice, yet remain nervous over the prospects of Federer finding his form once again and "Federer-express" over you once again.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:22 AM | Comments (2)

August 6, 2008

What Will Become of Allen Iverson?

With Marcus Camby's unceremonious departure from Denver in July, speculation is running rampant about who may be next. Of course, the lightning rod for rumors and innuendo in Denver this summer is Allen Iverson and what comes of his expiring contract. Iverson had expressed interest in the past about working out an extension and staying in Denver.

No doubt that when Denver pulled the trigger on the deal that brought A.I. to Denver they were convinced he was going to be the guy who put them over the top into instant title contention. Unfortunately, Kenyon Martin's play continues to deteriorate, along with his aging, ailing knees and Nene Hilario cannot seem to stay healthy. So it has largely been the 'Melo and A.I. show in Denver the past year-and-a-half.

The thing about Iverson is he is 33-years-old and plays with such reckless abandon that one is not sure when he is going to start showing signs of wear and tear and start slowing down. Once that happens, his career is pretty much over and done with since he has never really taken the time to work on shot selection and becoming a more disciplined player on the court. Iverson's major advantage over opponents is his superior quickness and once he loses that quickness, he does not have the jump shot to survive in the NBA.

However, Iverson is coming off of one of his most productive seasons in years. He posted his second best-ever field goal and three-point percentages and his lowest-ever assist-to-turnover ratio. Certainly, he owes a lot of that to having an elite player like Carmelo Anthony to play off of. Conversely, I am sure Anthony will be the first to let it be known that having a guy like Iverson, who attacks the rim and demands the attention of defenses, as a teammate has led to him getting cleaner looks and shots at the basket.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out over the next few months as, with an expiring contract in hand, Iverson does have some trade value and he can still fill it up on any given night, as he did lead the Nuggets in scoring last season. He also managed to play in every game last season and gave the Nuggets just under 42 minutes per game, so he is showing no signs of slowing down.

Iverson has also proven that he can share the ball with another superstar and, relatively speaking, he has toed the line in Denver, keeping the complaining to a minimum. Playing alongside a player like Carmelo Anthony and not stepping on his toes has probably gone along way to enhance his image around the league as being a guy who can be a good teammate when the time comes. One of the problems he always faced in Philadelphia was Billy King and Larry Brown would go out and deal young talent like Jerry Stackhouse, Tim Thomas, and get an over-the-hill marquee name like a Chris Webber, Glenn Robinson, or Derrick Coleman and expect Iverson to prop those guys up.

Would an aging team like Dallas that has key players like Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, and Erick Dampier already at or over the age of 30 be interested in dealing for Iverson? Owner Mark Cuban is a win-at-all-costs kind of guy and surely he realizes the window is rapidly closing to win a championship with the current core of players he has. Or will a team like the Golden State Warriors, in desperate need of a marquee name, try and make a deal for A.I.? Given that Monta Ellis may not quite be ready to be a full-time PG, that may not be out of the realm of possibility. There is also the wild card of a team unexpectedly being in contention come January and making a play for Iverson hoping he can be the guy to push them over the top.

Ultimately, the $64,000 question is what is Denver's long-term goal is here. There is no doubt Iverson and Anthony make one of the deadliest scoring combinations in the league, but do Nuggets execs feel they can field a championship-caliber squad with those two on the roster? If the answer to that is no, then do they feel compelled to move Iverson potentially for young talent and draft picks in an effort to re-tool around Anthony before he can skip town via free agency? Do they risk alienating Anthony by cleaning house and starting over just to save money and get themselves back under the luxury tax threshold?

Posted by Eric Engberg at 6:59 PM | Comments (2)

August 5, 2008

Ashley, Ashley, Ashley...

Okay, last time here I told you how boring the U.S. Open Series is so far, how it isn't really relevant given the Olympics is just a week away. I also told you I was turning my TV off. I was looking for a good book to read instead when I ran across something more interesting.

There I was, stuck in the Lawton, Oklahoma airport, with a few hours to kill before my flight. Over to the magazine rack at the only newstand/giftshop I went. As I scanned the shelves my eyes were immediately drawn to Playboy Magazine.

Ashley Harkleroad was prominently on the cover. Yes, that Ashley Harkleroad, the number four U.S. women's player, and the number 61st player in the world. To say I was shocked was an understatement.

It seems that the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour was caught a little off-guard, as well. The WTA Tour stopped short of condemning the appearance, but was short in its statement on this:

"The Sony Ericsson WTA Tour markets and promotes our players based on their on-court athleticism and competitiveness, and their off-court charisma. That is what we focus on when it comes to promoting our players and sport as a whole. That said, as in any sport, individual athletes make individual decisions regarding their own brands and how they wish to market and promote themselves. This includes which media they decide to do or not do."

Ashley's choice to pose nude for Playboy is a personal choice. What was shocking was that this seemed to be very out of character for her. She has not been one to really draw attention to herself off the court. She doesn't have a personal "brand" to promote like Venus or Serena Williams. She does not try to shock you with her on-court dress like Bethanie Mattek. Yes, she has had to wrestle some personal demons. But I am left to wonder, will this be the cathartic moment for her and her career?

I often forget that professional sports is still just a form of entertainment. So when an athlete takes such a bold move, I am left to wonder why. Then I have to be reminded that professional sports is entertainment, not unlike professional wrestling. Tennis has a different community and flavor, but it's still just entertainment.

Thank you, Ashley, for giving me something to think about during these dog days of summer. I have always enjoyed watching you play hard. I love to watch you leave it all out on the court. Though now I have a different view of what leave it all out on the court means...

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

August 4, 2008

NFL '08 Predictions: AFC West

Also see: NFL '08 Predictions: NFC North | NFC West | NFC East | NFC South | AFC North

The teams in the AFC West are an interesting bunch that have been annual underachievers on some level for a number of years. Since John Elway's retirement, the only team that has been a major threat has been the Chargers, who have always come up short in the playoffs. But it would seem that the West is on the rise, perhaps not with three playoff teams in 2008, but maybe by 2010. Let the rebuilding begin.

San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are the only team that is essentially set with their players. Injuries were the question mark heading into 2008. The three big guns — Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and LaDainian Tomlinson — all were banged up by the end of the 2007 season. All signs point to Rivers and L.T. being at 100% looking better than ever thus far. Gates remains a question mark and only time will tell if he'll be ready by Week 1.

The Chargers have a very difficult schedule particularly the three weeks before their bye week and the three weeks following bye week, facing New England, Buffalo, and New Orleans before and division rival Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis after. Starting 5-0 and ending 5-0 may be possible, but the middle six are all very losable games. I expect the Chargers to rise to the occasion for the regular season, but be stifled once again before reaching the Super Bowl.

Prediction: 13-3

Kansas City Chiefs

I expect comments on this story to be about how Kansas City was given too generous of a ranking and Denver was given too harsh of a ranking. The Chiefs' offseason moves were questionable at first; trading the 2007 NFL-sack leader Jared Allen to the Vikings for draft picks seemed strange, but the Chiefs killed in the draft, more so than any team in the past decade, picking up tons of great players, some of which will have immediate impact in 2008.

The Chiefs hit a bit of bad luck this past week when the No. 5 overall pick Glen Dorsey sprained his knee in practice. It doesn't look to be an injury that will make Dorsey miss a significant amount of time, but annoying nonetheless for a rookie to be missing his first training camp. Brodie Croyle may not be the long-term solution at quarterback, but he seems like he can be a suitable guy who can manage the game, make few mistakes, hit Tony Gonzalez on a regular basis, and let the running game rule.

The success of the Chiefs will likely depend on that running game. Larry Johnson went out in Week 9 last season due to injury. Kolby Smith looked okay backing up Johnson, but the Chiefs failed to win a game after Johnson's injury. Jamaal Charles seems to be an exciting young back who will be a significant threat with speed on top of speed. If he can learn some blocking, he will be an formidable threat as a third down back, and an obvious choice for returns.

A 9-7 record may be a year away or five years away, but I think the Chiefs will begin flirting with the playoffs already in 2008.

Prediction: 9-7

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are the only team in the division that seem to be heading downward instead of upward. Jay Cutler hasn't yet developed to the elite status that the Broncos had hoped for.

The Broncos' downfall, in my opinion, exists in their unbridled pride in their system, which emphasizes a systematic approach to football that de-values players. This is particularly viewable in the running back position. 2008 was the first season in years where the Broncos did not have a running back reach 1,000 yards. In the four years previous, four different backs rushed for 1,000 yards (Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns, and Clinton Portis). However, ever since Portis left, the 1,500-yard seasons have disappeared.

This has become problematic, however, in the recent retirement of future Hall of Fame safety John Lynch. Lynch was an amazing talent who knew what it meant to be excellent. You'd think after four-years of Pro Bowl-level play, there would have been a plan to honor Lynch or a public statement thanking him for his quality level of play, but no. Lynch is just as replaceable as any other player on the Broncos' team.

Success for the Broncos depends on the system, not on the players. It is evident that way of thinking isn't going to work. Mike Shanahan has been very successful at 130-78 with the Broncos, making the playoffs seven times and winning two Super Bowls, but success has been lackluster at best since John Elway retired, and the organization's commitment to its players has been non-existent. They have enough talent to win some ball games, but an unhappy locker room means less wins. It seems the reign of Mike Shanahan should be over shortly.

Prediction: 6-10

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are one of the only teams in the NFL that I feel sorry for. They made a great move acquiring Randy Moss for a cheap price from the Vikings, and Moss decided to be worthless for a couple of years, then make his way to New England and once again be the best receiver in the NFL.

The Raiders now have two very exciting young players in 2007's No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell and No. 4 overall pick Darren McFadden in the 2008 draft.

So the potential for a potent offense is available, the question will be if the coaching staff can call plays that will showcase the unusual talents of Russell and McFadden.

The defense is questionable, but the Raiders have a good linebacking core to build around. In 2007, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard combined for 217 tackles and 10 interceptions, but the defensive line and the secondary need to improve for the Raiders to have a chance in every game.

The Raiders (much like the Chiefs) seem to have a few key things in place for the next five years, but 2008 looks a bit more dim for the Raiders than the Chiefs.

Prediction: 5-11

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:50 AM | Comments (5)

Gaming Congress, Yanks Could Strike Out

As previously chronicled in this series of reports on the public financing of the new Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY, the issues it encompasses and the various impending outcomes may have a broad impact for cities across the United States.

Moreover, public-private partnerships have become intentionally blurred when it comes to taxpayers ultimately funding of MLB, NFL, NBA, and other professional sports' stadiums and venues.

Balance sheets, land assessments, funding arrangements via questionable ethical relationships, if not borderline illegal ones between public officials and corporate entities, are now being revealed as more than troublesome with respect to the new Yankee Stadium. And it may eventually take an act of the U.S. Congress to unravel that which appears to be an egregious violation of the public trust on behalf of NYC and the New York Yankees.

As last reported here in July 2008, the NY Yankees, a.k.a. Yankees Global Enterprises LLC, had requested that an additional $366 million in tax-free bonds be appropriated, to the already ballooning $1.3 billion cost of the new Yankee Stadium tallied thus far, and financed primarily through such funding instruments.

But in order for any new approval for any such new appropriations, the process must be cleared again by a host of multiple New York City, New York state, and federal agencies. However, unanticipated by the NY Yankees is that not only could such a request be denied, but that they have opened up a proverbial Pandora's box of quagmires now being given scrutiny with a fine tooth comb by both the State of NY and a powerful Congressional committee.

On July 4, 2008, during the NY Yankees game at Yankee Stadium versus the Boston Red Sox and broadcast on the YES cable network, the NY Yankees' own broadcast outlet, play-by-play announcer Michael Kay was speaking about how the current stadium would be replaced starting with the 2009 season. And he stated at the top of the second inning, "And across the street, they're building a new ballpark which the Steinbrenner family is paying for."

Perhaps Kay should go to Capitol Hill and testify under oath and relay such news to those investigating the suspicious circumstances under which the NY Yankees obtained all of their dough. He may get a chance in September 2008 when additional hearings will be held by the House Committee of Oversight and Government Reform's Sub-Committee on Domestic Policy. After all, Kay would be in good company along with notable others associated with MLB who have been less than forthright before Congress.

But sadly, most New Yorkers either already believe that which Kay and others have reiterated or have no idea about anything going on in Yankee Land. Yet, such may set important precedents for future building projects and land takings both in NYC and other municipalities.

But far more importantly, and at a time when NYC and NY state are both eliminating important public services due to budget shortfalls, it is incumbent for taxpayers to know far more comprehensively than that which the local tabloids have recently and but occasionally provide about this complex web of wheeling and dealing.

For the new Yankee Stadium is no longer a house that [Babe] Ruth built, but one that New Yorkers citywide and statewide will be paying for and for generations to come. And in that regard, a brief context of the back-story is in order.

Prior to the NY Yankees' initial approvals required from public agencies, the last of which were not completed until 2006, the Yankees put into motion key lobbyist law firms and former public officials who had prior governing positions from City Hall to the IRS to the U.S. Department of Treasury. And it was through such seemingly conflicts of interests that have driven the realized stadium.

Initially, the NY Yankees had to clear a hurdle by the IRS, which many now consider questionable, for the $941 million gain in triple tax-exempt bonds with a favorable low interest rate. Such will save the Yankees close to $150 million in saved interest alone.

Bond buyers get a considerably less lower set interest rate of return when exempt from federal, state, and city income taxes and, therefore, the NY Yankees benefit from an interest rate approximately 25% lower than taxable bonds.

Bruce Serchuk, a partner at the law firm Nixon Peabody LLP, was retained by both the NYC Industrial Development Agency and the NY Yankees to lobby the IRS. Serchuk was a former lawyer in the Office of the Chief Counsel at the IRS and in the Office of Taxation Policy at the Department of the Treasury. He was instrumental in providing NYC lawyers help with submitting the request that allowed such payments-in-lieu-of-taxes (PILOTs).

In June 2006, the IRS granted that request to NYC in a private letter ruling. In spite of regulations that changed that very year which further restricted publicly financed stadiums using tax-exempt bonds, it got the attention of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform's Sub-committee on Domestic Policy and precipitated a March 2007 hearing.

Yet, instead of putting a cap on spending by the NY Yankees and NYC's Industrial Development Agency (IDA), an arm of the NYC Economic Development Corporation which operates at the Mayor's behest, NYC was granted another $190 million in tax-exempt financing for the new stadium's three parking garages.

But in order to get this increased financing, the garages were termed by NYC officials as "Civic Facility Projects." Additionally, the IDA created a specious not-for-profit organization, referred to as the Bronx Community Initiative Development Corporation as a "special purpose LLC" that was needed as a bridge to complete the garage financing.

Tishman Speyer Properties, now a global multi-national conglomerate, was hired by the NY Yankees for the construct of the new stadium. Anthony Mannarino, who now is in charge of Tishman's stadium development, was previously the Executive Vice President of the NYC Economic Development Corporation from 1990-1994 and its acting President in 1994.

None other than former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and one of his former NYC Police Commissioners, Howard Safir, are both listed in court documents as security consultants for the new stadium project as Giuliani Security & Safety Partners, a division of Giuliani Partners, LLC and Safir-Rosetti Security, respectively.

There are far too many lobbying interests and reciprocal relationships to detail in this one report, but suffice it to say that the NY Yankees and NYC officials have easily spent upwards of $500,000 of taxpayer dollars in lobbying costs for their back-scratching stadium behemoth.

Most of the lobbying expenses were accorded in a final deal which Mayor Giuliani had ratified prior to his departure from City Hall in 2001. It allocated $25 million over a five-year period from 2002-2007 to be used by the NY Yankees in any way they saw fit for the planning stages of the new stadium on the taxpayer's dime.

And unfortunately far more than new stadium expenses were charged to the taxpayers, which had nothing whatsoever to do with stadium planning. But the NY Yankee organization could not help itself and applied for every last dime of that $25 million.

The puppet master of the whole deal is former NYC Deputy Mayor of Economic Development, Planning and Administration, Randy Levine, from 1997-2000, and now President of the NY Yankees. Prior to Levine's leaving his office in 2000, he was given the primary responsibility to craft a financing structure document for Mayor Giuliani and the new Yankee Stadium.

And prior to becoming Deputy Mayor, Randy Levine was a chief labor negotiator for MLB Commissioner Bud Selig. To make matters worse, Levine was granted a waiver from the NYC Conflict of Interest Board which oversees NYC's Conflict of Interest Law. And as a direct result of that waiver, throughout Randy Levine's term as NYC Deputy Mayor, he maintained a consulting contract with MLB.

In September 2008, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform's Sub-Committee on Domestic Policy, whose Chairman is Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), will concentrate on those federal agencies formerly involved in the previous financing approvals and the newly requested $366 million in additional funding requested by NYC and the NY Yankees in June 2008.

Those agencies include the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the IRS, and the National Park Service of the U.S. Department of the Interior, along with the NY Yankees, the NYC Department of Finance, and the NYC Economic Development Corporation.

Those involved agencies have all been required to submit specific documentation to Congressman Kucinich's committee by August 6, 2008 in preparation for a date to be announced for his hearing in September 2008.

The issue to be explored will be the conflicting land value assessments which were supplied and used as a basis for the original $941 million tax-free bonds. It has come to the attention not only of Rep. Kucinich, but New York State Assemblyman Richard Brodsky that the unjustified land assessment valuations may be the smoking gun in the now $1.3 billion house of cards that may bloat to upwards of $2 billion before all is said and done.

The NY Yankees claim that the land upon which the new stadium sits is worth $275 per square foot, more than most lots on waterfront property on Manhattan Island, the heart of NYC.

The NYC Department of Finance claims that the land is worth $204 million, versus NYC's commissioned independent assessors, who value it at $21 million. And land just across the street from the new Yankee Stadium, according to the NYC Department of Finance's latest assessments and the latest average market value of such land in that area of the Bronx, is but $36 per square foot.

According to NY State Assemblyman, Richard Brodsky, who heads the NY State Committee on Corporations, Authorities, and Commissions and who is also holding hearings on this issue on the state level has said that, "This issue goes to the heart of whether it is a public project or a private project ... There is substantial discrepancy on a whole host of levels that we are going to proceed to investigate thoroughly and fairly, but we are going to get to the truth."

And as the ongoing story of this slippery slope of either trickery or merely free market big business, depending on one's point of view, this journalist will pickup the case in September 2008 and report back in part four of this series.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:40 AM | Comments (0)

August 1, 2008

Sports Q&A: WNBA Fighting: Rumble Pie

Tonya from Portland, OR writes, "Last week's WNBA brawl between the Detroit Shock and Los Angeles Sparks was a black eye for women's sports. For a ratings-starved league, is this just what the WNBA needed to boost ratings?"

Let's not get our sports bras all in a bunch just yet. Does this incident even qualify as a fight? All I saw was a bunch of women flailing and falling on the floor. Looked like a game of Twister to me. All it needed was a little bit of vegetable oil. But really, can you ever be disappointed with girl-on-girl action, even if an undersexed former NBA goon like Rick Mahorn spoils the fun for everyone? And is it even surprising that a team coached by Bill Laimbeer and assisted by Mahorn engaged in a dirty brawl, at the site of the 2004 Detroit Pistons/Indiana Pacers melee, no less? Shouldn't there be a foul for flagrant coaching?

Basketball is a physical game, whether played by men, women, midgets, transvestites, or people on donkeys. In the WNBA, just like the NBA, contact is inevitable, and an inherent part of the game. Combine physical contact in the women's game with malicious gang sign flashings, as well as jealous spats about who can pull their hair back the tightest, and a brawl is bound to break out. I could be wrong.

Maybe the Shock/Sparks brawl had nothing to do with animosity, and everything to do with timing. In July, women's issues seem to have been flaring up more than usual. First, Indy car racers Danica Patrick and Milka Dunno engaged in a delicious quarrel after a practice session for a race in Lexington, Ohio. LPGA golfers have recently resumed their criticism of Michelle Wie. And the the Detroit/Los Angeles brawl. Sounds like it was just that time of the month.

In all seriousness, Mahorn got a raw deal when suspensions and fines were handed out by the league last Thursday. Mahorn was suspended for two games and fined $1,000, apparently for maliciously wielding a clipboard while trying to separate the combatants before any nails were broken. According to the league, Mahorn shoved Sparks player Lisa Leslie to the floor, and fearing that an NBA Eastern Conference Finals, circa mid-to-late-1980s, might break out, the WNBA had no choice but to punish Mahorn.

Laimbeer was incensed with Mahorn's punishment, so incensed that he donned his old Land of the Lost Sleestak costume and angrily fired harmless crossbow arrows in the direction of league offices. Laimbeer said Mahorn was acting as a "peacemaker" as slap-fights broke out around him, and the physical contact with Leslie was simply incidental as Mahorn tried to separate combatants. WNBA officials, as well as former Boston Celtics Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish, scoffed at Laimbeer's assertion, as well as his use of the words "Rick Mahorn" and "peacemaker" in the same sentence.

"I think the word 'widowmaker' would be more appropriate," McHale commented.

As violence goes, the WNBA incident was tame. And, compared to NBA violence starring NBA thugs Ron Artest and Stephen Jackson, it was even tamer, and no criminal charges were filed. The only injury reported was a torn ACL suffered by Cheryl Ford, who was hurt trying to restrain a teammate. Only one punch connected (according the HBO Punch Stats) — the Sparks' DeLisha Milton-Jones punched Mahorn in the back in response to Leslie's fall. Mahorn, to his credit, didn't retaliate, and likened Milton-Jones' punch to a Danny Ainge haymaker, or a congratulatory pat on the back from Chuck Daly. Oddly, Mahorn was fined $1,000 for a shove (that may not have even happened), while Milton-Jones was fined only $500 for a sucker punch. And women's basketball players are begging for equality.

All kidding aside, was the brawl good for the sport of women's basketball? Of course it was. Any publicity is good publicity, and it's much better than no publicity. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire incident was staged by the league. Doesn't it seem somewhat of a coincidence that the throwdown took place in the presence of Mahorn and Laimbeer, two of the NBA's scrappiest enforcers, in The Palace, where the Pacers and Pistons engaged in a fight with arguably more action than a superfeatherweight boxing clash between two iron-chinned Hispanics? Far-fetched, but conceivable, no? There have been other, more monumental events in history that have been staged, like the 1969 lunar landing, or Mark Moseley's 1982 NFL MVP award.

And should the WNBA be that surprised that a fight broke out in the league? After all, they do model themselves after the NBA, just without the spectacular dunks and out-of-this-world athleticism. And what's the cure for fan apathy? A fight, or free gas cards. I guarantee that WNBA ratings shot up in subsequent telecasts. Not because people wanted to watch a game, but to see replays of the fight, especially Leslie's dive, which basically verified the long-standing rumor that Leslie "goes down easy." Or maybe I'm confusing her with Sheryl Swoopes.

Will the fight ultimately damage the integrity of the WNBA, and cost the league its largest fan base, screaming female tweeners? No, not at all. This is just what the league needed. We've got to ask ourselves: do we want our daughters growing up worshiping the likes of marginally-talented hacks like Hannah Montana, or growing up to have the balls to punch a large black man who was known as one of the NBA's most rugged goons? The latter, of course. If young, impressionable females are to become pantsuit-wearing, contributing members of society, then the Shock/Sparks incident should give them a clear impression that sometimes, you've got to fight for what you believe in, like the right to party, or incremental ratings points, or a one-handed set shot.

Should we worry about a similar incident in the WNBA again? No, we shouldn't worry, but we should be prepared. It will happen, in some form or fashion. Chances are you won't be tuned in live when the next WNBA fight breaks out. If I knew when the fight was, I would be eagerly watching, though. When the chicks hit the fan, I'll be more than willing to briefly turn away from an episode of "I Survived a Japanese Game Show" to see it.

Get Your Questions Answered!

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)