The Cubs and Rays in first, the Cardinals in playoff position, while the Yankees out of it, and a young talented NL West completely submerged below .500. Oh, and to be totally honest, the Marlins being right in the NL East race might be the biggest surprise of all of them. And the best pitcher in baseball wasn't even on drafted to any fantasy rosters in even the deepest leagues at the beginning of the year.
This season, as much as any in recent memory, has been chuck full of nifty little surprises that have many of us questioning whether or not we know anything about baseball. And not just for the first month — we're past the halfway point. But teams don't just turn out far better than expectations by sheer luck. Players make the difference, and here are a list of players that have caught analysts and opponents alike off-guard while their fans do cartwheels.
Advanced honorable mention: Josh Hamilton and Edinson Volquez were traded for each other this offseason. The most productive hitter in the AL right now, Hamilton, was a highly regarded prospect and was predicted to be good. Just not this good, not this soon, nor after the obstacles he overcame. Volquez has been the best pitcher in the NL and has been a rare bright spot for the struggling Reds, who forgot how to score runs. But both were ultra-prospects and their emergence, while stunning in scale and arrival time, are not the type of surprise being discussed here.
For similar reasons, Evan Longoria (super-prospect leading the shocking Rays since his call-up), Ian Kinsler (another highly-touted prospect that is as responsible for the Rangers offensive output as Hamilton), Jason Giambi (the second best hitter in the AL right now whose renaissance is carrying a struggling Yankee offense), and Chipper Jones' health will also be notable omissions.
So who are these no-names shaping first-half pennant races?
Justin Duchscherer, Oakland A's
The amazing thing isn't just that he's leading the big leagues in ERA and WHIP. It's that he's leading in ERA by over half a run (with a skimpy 1.78) and WHIP by .12 (at an equally minimalist 0.86). And after injuries severely limited the virtually unknown Duchscherer last year, he has been ultra-efficient this year. At 13.8 pitches per inning, only Greg Maddux has cut through innings faster among qualified pitchers. Oakland may have just dealt away a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, but as has always been the case with the Billy Beane Machine, another one has just stepped up into his place. (Remember when the Big Three was dismantled? Where are those guys compared with the current A's staff?)
Team Outlook: The West is weak, with Seattle nowhere near the contender some thought it could be, and the Rangers still can't get a lineup of statues out without giving up runs. Anaheim is up five games, but with the Angels' offense struggling (the A's have actually scored more runs), the gap is not insurmountable. And the pitching isn't going away; the A's have allowed fewer runs than any team in the majors. So it wasn't all Rich Harden. So this team is by no means finished. Until the Angels deal for another bat; then there could be trouble.
Milton Bradley, Texas Rangers
Milton: not just the active ingredient in meltdowns anymore. The fiery (to put it euphemistically) Bradley is hitting .314 with 17 homers and 54 RBIs. His near-Bondsian .440 OBP and his 1.033 OPS would each top the majors if it weren't for Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols, and Lance Berkman. It could be so much worse in Texas without Bradley and Hamilton crushing baseballs.
Team Outlook: Not good. Apparently, pitching still matters. But when you are overachieving the way the veteran Bradley is (career .277 hitter who's never cracked 20 homers), you get to bend the rules.
Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
Lee gets the pitcher honorary mention for player from a bad team that has stepped up big. When he was traded, C.C. Sabathia was not the Chief of the Tribe's rotation. Lee's 11-2 record, 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP speak for themselves. It hasn't hurt that his home run rate this year is less than a third of his career pace, and his K-rate is one strikeout per nine innings better than any year since 2004. Last year? He was 5-8 with a 6.29, and although injuries limited him, the jump has been far beyond anything his six previous seasons indicated was possible.
Ryan Ludwick and Kyle Loshe, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals came into this season with perhaps the lowest expectations this decade. In a lineup of young, unproven, and uninspiring hitters, Albert Pujols seemed destined for about 200 intentional walks this year. Enter Ludwick, who has led a group of hitters in making that unintimidating lineup formidable. Skip Shoemaker and Rick Ankiel have come through as effective young hitters. Troy Glaus (though no longer a 35 HR threat) is driving in runs like it's his job, presumably because it is. Heck, even Aaron Miles and Yadier Molina is hitting over .300.
But Ludwick has been a monster. Not many hitters are in the top-20 in OPS (.930), HR (18) and RBI (59). In fact there are three. Giambi, Hamilton, and Chase Utley. And sure, life is a whole lot easier when you hit in front of Pujols and pitchers would rather set it on a tee than let you walk to first. But with Pujols logging enough walks to complete a 5K charity walk, someone else has to hit the ball. And Ludwick has done that far better than any No. 2 hitter for the Cardinals in years.
Meanwhile, Kyle Loshe really has discovered himself. Dave Duncan has squeezed good years and clutch performances out of the likes of Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Weaver. Lohse is currently 10-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Not bad for a guy who has never won 15 games or posted an ERA below 4.23. A drop-off could (some would say should) be coming, but being lights out four 11 straight starts — 8-0, ERA well south of three — doesn't tend to happen by accident. And with Carpenter and Wainwright on the shelf, the Cards might be an afterthought without even a few of those wins.
Team Outlook: In it to the end, but certainly not a frontrunner for even the wild card. Not after the Brewers and Cubs grabbed all-star pitchers via trades. But this team is nothing if not resilient. It survived all year without ace Chris Carpenter (not to mention stretches without Adam Wainwright and Pujols). Getting everyone healthy in August (except Mark Mulder, naturally) would create a team to be dealt with. Still, they are a legit outside shot to make the playoffs.
Joe Saunders, Anaheim Angels
Speaking of guys stepping up on a team with injuries, Saunders has made Angel fans forget that Kelvim Escobar probably won't pitch this year, and John Lackey had a May launch date. As mentioned, Seattle was a chic pick to take the West, mostly by default. But the 27-year-old Saunders, who last year started a career high 18 games, has gone 12-5 with a 3.07 ERA. And in three of his losses, he had quality starts backed by no run support from the offensively challenged Halos.
Team Outlook: With Lackey back and rolling and Vladimir Guerrero starting to finally find his stroke, the Angels shouldn't be slipping in the second half after limping through the first. Plus, Anaheim is more likely to add than subtract, while Oakland already shipped Harden to Chi-town.
John Danks and Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
Speaking of division leaders getting boosts from arms, John Danks has been lights out for the South-Siders, to the tune of a 2.52 ERA. The 23-year-old took fewer people by surprise, but he has adjusted from last season's rookie campaign quickly, and has been a key factor in Chicago maintaining its monopoly on both leagues' Central Division.
And on offense, the best hitter on Chicago's other division leader has been a prospect that Arizona let get away after he hit .214 last year in 81 games. This year he has 21 homers and 66 RBIs, both good for top-11 in the bigs. His OBP (.373) and OPS (.892) are nothing to laugh at either. And while his highly-touted prospect status would have negated him, the fact that Arizona willingly traded him bumped down expectations for this season. Maybe the D-Backs should have dealt Chris Young instead.
Team Outlook: Comfortable ... for the moment. Don't look back, there might be Tigers on the prowl. (Does anyone really think the Twins can keep up? I'd love to see it, but it's just hard to imagine.)
Tampa Bay Rays/ Florida Marlins
Perhaps the most notable omission from this list was not a player, but a pair of teams. But unlike the players mentioned, none of their players have drastically exceeded expectations. Sure, Hanley Ramirez is one of the best players in baseball. But anyone in a fantasy league knew that if he slipped to the fifth pick in the draft, the guys that drafted third and fourth were assumed to be mentally challenged and disregarded as legit competitors in the league. An improved Dan Uggla has been nearly as lethal offensively as Ramirez, and Jorge Canto and Mike Jacobs have been great run producers. Kudos to Ricky Nolasco and Scott Olsen for pinning the rotation together. But no one has been unexpectedly elite; it has been a team effort. And that might even make their rise more impressive.
The same goes with the Rays. Longoria has been great since the call-up. B.J. Upton has been another standout, reaching base at a .385 clip and stealing 27 bases to add to the team's other base bandit, Carl Crawford (actually having what is for him, a fairly average season). Carlos Pena's numbers are down from last year. But as a team, the Rays are producing runs, and the pitching has been solid as a rock, fourth in the AL in ERA. Andy Sonnanstine has the starting staff's worst ERA, a respectable 4.58 and the only one above four. And even he has been hot of late and has a 10-4 record backing him. James Shields, Matt Garza, and Scott Kazmir all have ERA's 3.54 and below and WHIPs no higher than 1.20. That is solid top to bottom.
So where does it all go, especially for the Florida teams? Those two in-state storylines are easily the most compelling in baseball. And at least in the Rays' case, there is no reason to believe the fairy tale story can't have a happy ending. As has been pointed out on this site, the bullpen and defense are also strengths down in St. Pete. And with the Yankees facing rotation issues and underperforming hitters, there could be an opening for the Rays to shock everyone by shining well into the fall.
What it may come down to is a 2007 Rockies complex where the young squad is too inexperienced to understand the pressure they should be struggling under in September. And if that happens, either the Red Sox or the Yankees — probably the Yankees — will be sitting at home in October, wondering what the hell happened this year.
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