Roger Federer is bidding to become the first man in the Open Era to win six straight Wimbledon titles. Since that run began, however, rarely has Federer looked more vulnerable than he does now.
So when Wimbledon begins on Monday, something's got to give. Will it be Bjorn Borg's record-tying five straight titles from 1976-1980 that gives way to Federer as the sole record holder, or will it be Federer giving way to a new champion and perhaps even a new world No. 1 in Rafael Nadal?
If the draw has anything to do with it, the latter will become a reality.
First Quarter of the Draw
As if Federer did not have enough problems already, his section turned out to be by far the toughest when the draw ceremony took place on Friday morning. The other seeded players in this quarter are David Ferrer (who just won his first grass-court title in 's-Hertogenbosch), big-serving Tomas Berdych, French Open quarterfinalist Fernando Gonzalez, former Wimbledon champion Lleyton Hewitt, Nottingham finalist Fernando Verdasco, French Open semifinalist and Nottingham semifinalist Gael Monfils, and finally Michael Llodra, who has already won two singles titles this season and is always dangerous on fast surfaces — and now it looks like he is dangerous on any surface after reaching the fourth round in Paris!
Think that's all? Think again. Adding to the ridiculousness of this part of the draw are several unseeded threats against whom nobody in his right mind would want to play early in the Wimbledon proceedings. Robin Soderling has been one of the hottest players on tour this season and he almost beat Nadal at Wimbledon last year, Robby Ginepri just made it to the fourth round of the French Open on his worst surface and took a set off Roddick at Queen's Club, Philipp Kohlschreiber lost to Federer in the Halle final last weekend, and Mario Ancic, one of the most dangerous grass-courters in the business, reached the 's-Hertogenbosch semifinals last week.
What would really be fun is if all of these guys were in, say, Nikolay Davydenko's section of the draw instead of Federer's. To say that would have been a wild free-for-all would be an understatement. With Federer in here, however, it is obviously his quarter to lose. But if the world No. 1 does stumble early, this part of the draw will instantly become even more chaotic than it appears on paper right now.
Best First-Round Matchup — A smorgasbord of mouth-watering matchups make it almost impossible to pick just one, but Ancic-Llodra looks like it might be the cream of a loaded crop. The 6'5" Croat has somewhat quietly enjoyed an outstanding 2008 campaign after returning from myriad injuries, and he is only just now embarking on his favorite part of the season: grass courts and fast hard courts. Llodra, meanwhile, started concentrating on singles this year and it paid off instantly with two titles on slick indoor courts. Few breaks of serve and a lot of sets should be on the menu for this showdown. Other first-round barnburners include Fernando Verdasco/
Philipp Kohlschreiber, Robby Ginepri/Fernando Gonzalez, Gael Monfils/Chris Guccione if the huge Aussie's serve is clicking, and maybe even Robin Haase/Lleyton Hewitt if the young Dutchman suddenly lives up to his potential.
What to Watch For — Federer's early form. The Swiss looked lifeless against Nadal in the French Open final, but not surprisingly he bounced right back on the grass by winning the Gerry Weber Open in Halle. Federer often starts out slowly in Grand Slams, letting lesser opponents hang around longer than they should, before turning it on in the second week as the title nears. With his draw, however, Federer does not have time to mess around. He needs to be the Federer of old right from the start.
The bad news for Federer is that he has not been himself this year and that he is the toughest section of the draw. The good news is that anything close to the Federer of the past few years is good enough to get past anyone outside of Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Prediction — Roger Federer
Second Quarter
Under normal circumstances, Djokovic would be crying foul over the most recent two Grand Slam draws. At the French Open, he found himself on Nadal's side, and at Wimbledon he shows up in Federer's half.
These are not normal circumstances, however, in Federer's case. With Federer not the same Federer and Nadal having just completed an incredible French Open-Queen's Club double, it's hard to say which man Djokovic would prefer to face in the semifinals. Either way, the Serb should not be complaining about being stuck with Federer as opposed to Nadal.
Djokovic certainly can't complain about his own quarter of the draw. The second highest seeded player behind him in this section is David Nalbandian, whom Djokovic just destroyed 6-1, 6-0 in the Queen's semifinals. More likely is the possibility that Djokovic will meet up not with Nalbandian, but with either No. 18 seed Ivo Karlovic or 10th-seeded Marcos Baghdatis in the quarterfinals.
Of course, he first has to make it there, but that does not seem too taxing at the moment. Marat Safin looms in the second round for Djokovic, but the Russian has always been surprisingly hopeless on grass. Juan Carlos Ferrero, Sam Querrey, and Stanislas Wawrinka are dangerous potential fourth-round opponents, but Juan Ferrero and Stanislas Wawrinka would prefer to get Djokovic on a slower surface and Sam Querrey clearly is not yet at the point where he is ready to take out one of the top three players at a Grand Slam event.
Best First-Round Matchup — Juan Carlos Ferrero vs. Sam Querrey. As a past French Open champion, Ferrero is known by many as a dirtball specialist, but the Spaniard can get it done just fine on grass as well. In seven Wimbledon appearances he has never lost in the first round and he has been taken out in the second round just once. Last year, Ferrero made it all the way to the quarterfinals, where he took a set off Federer. Ferrero's stellar return game will have to be on display once again against Querrey. The up-and-coming American owns one of the biggest first serves in tennis, so he should be a terror to deal with on grass if that first delivery is working. Ferrero is definitely the favorite due to his past history at Wimbledon, but if Querrey serves well, the No. 21 seed could be in a world of trouble.
Also sound the upset alert when Baghdatis goes up against Steve Darcis. The Bagman should not let that happen under any circumstances, but you just never know what you are going to get from him when he takes the court. On top of that, Darcis already has captured a title this season (Memphis) and the young Belgian who stands just 5'10" (and that's generous) can frustrate any opponent who is off his game by incessantly getting balls back in the court. And "off his game" is exactly what Baghdatis has been this season.
What to Watch For — Whether or not Djokovic does anything in his first five matches (assuming he keeps winning and plays five matches) to inspire any confidence about his chances in a potential semifinal showdown with Roger Federer.
Also keep an eye on two boom-or-bust players who are under serious pressure to perform well at Wimbledon this year. Baghdatis got the No. 10 seed from the All-England Club despite being ranked 15 places lower. Apparently, the tournament committee put a lot more stock in Baghdatis' past Wimbledon results (semifinals in 2006, quarterfinals last year) than it did in the Cypriot's dismal 2008 form. He simply has to reach the second week in order to justify a seeding that has him ahead of guys like Berdych, Andy Murray, and Stanislas Wawrinka.
Meanwhile, 6'10" Croat Ivo Karlovic has been a massive underachiever at Wimbledon throughout his otherwise stellar career. Armed with such an imposing serve, Karlovic is always a dark horse to go deep in this tournament or even win the whole darn thing. Instead, he has flamed out in the first round in his past three tries. Baghdatis and Karlovic are on a collision course for the third round, so it's already been decided that one will be checking into an early flight home, bags packed with disappointment.
Prediction — Novak Djokovic
Third Quarter
Andy Roddick has to be jumping for joy over his placement in the draw. He's in the "Nikolay Davydenko" section, which is where anyone who isn't one of the Big Three always wants to be. Now the question is whether or not Roddick can handle the pressure of high Wimbledon expectations — expectations that were commonplace before the top American saw himself rapidly surpassed by Nadal, Djokovic, and others.
While Roddick has a favorable draw, he is no shoe-in for the semifinals. Not even Davydenko can be completely discounted. The Russian won just one match is his first five appearances at Wimbledon, but out of nowhere he seemed to find some comfort on the grass last year, when he ousted Evgeny Korolev, Chris Guccione, and Gael Monfils before falling to Baghdatis in the fourth round.
First, however, Roddick and Davydenko must make it that far. Roddick could get Janko Tipsarevic in round two and Dmitry Tursunov (or Tursunov's opening opponent Nicolas Mahut) after that. Both Tipsarevic and Tursunov are streaky and have upset potential when at their best. Like Ferrero, Nicolas Almagro is a Spaniard known for his clay-court prowess, but his serve is one of the most underrated weapons in tennis. Almagro has a great chance of taking out James Blake in a potential third-round clash and neither one would be a pushover for Roddick in the fourth.
Best First-Round Matchup — Ivan Ljubicic vs. Jurgen Melzer. Ljubicic is not the player he was earlier in his career when he was once solidly entrenched as the No. 3 player in the world. Nevertheless, the 6'4" Croat turned heads at the French Open by stunning Nikolay Davydenko en route to the fourth round. Ljubicic has never made it that far at Wimbledon despite a big serve and forehand that should work well on grass, but he has reached the third round each of the past two years. Melzer's game is definitely best-suited for the slick stuff. The Austrian can serve and volley with the best of them; that's why he is a lethal doubles player and why he should be a beast to deal with on grass. But Melzer has never astounded at the All-England Club, in part due to a succession of brutal draws. His best performance, a third-round showing in 2005, started with an opening round win over — who else — Ljubicic by a convincing 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 decision. It should be a lot closer this time around; such as multiple tiebreakers over five serve-dominated sets.
What to Watch For — Everything. As always, the penultimate question about Davydenko's quarter of the draw is just who the heck will join the Big Three in the semifinals. At the Australian Open, it was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. At the French Open, it was Gael Monfils. Will another talent-rich youngster like big-serving Croat Marin Cilic rise to the occasion, or is the door open for another unseeded player like Tipsarevic? Or will one of the more established veterans — Nikolay Davydenko, Roddick, James Blake, or Ivan Ljubicic — restore order to the up-for-grabs section of the draw?
Prediction — Andy Roddick
Fourth Quarter
The French Open draw did Nadal no favors and the Spaniard still made everyone else look like chump change. So how easy will it be for Nadal at Wimbledon, where he has been handed what appears to be a much friendlier path to the title?
Well, rarely is anything "easy," but Nadal's road to the semifinals is as smooth as it can get. It's very possible that his toughest test en route will come in the second round, after he destroys qualifier Andreas Beck in the opener. Nadal gets the winner of the John Isner/Ernests Gulbis match, so either way, he will be up against one of the faces of huge-serving, pure power tennis for years to come.
Richard Gasquet, Andy Murray, and Radek Stepanek also lurk in this section, but Gasquet has still not fully emerged from an utterly atrocious slump, Murray had to withdraw from Queen's Club after two matches, and Stepanek pulled out of Nottingham last week after just one match.
Perhaps those exit strategies of Murray and Stepanek are merely signs of things to come if either one has to face Nadal at Wimbledon.
Best First-Round Matchup — John Isner vs. Ernests Gulbis. There are two pieces of bad news regarding this brutal opening-round showdown. First, both players appear to have massive potential on grass and one will be gone after just one match. As for the winner, well, that's the second piece of bad news. The winner's prize is a nationally-televised second-round exit at the hands of four-time French Open champion and two-time Wimbledon finalist Rafael Nadal.
Back to the match at hand. Isner is 6'10" and is naturally armed with one of the most dangerous serves in the sport. Gulbis, 19, is 6'3" and has arguably the best second serve on tour. Why second? Well, the talented Latvian also demolishes his first delivery, but in this day and age so does almost everyone else. Gulbis, however, consistently fires his second ball in well over 120 mph and that is the essence of how he plays — no fear, going for winners with almost every stroke. At the French Open, Gulbis smartly and surprisingly played with a patience that took him all the way to the quarterfinals on his worst surface. On the grass courts of Wimbledon, he can probably throw patience out the window and prosper with his go-for-broke game. Isner will do the same, and the end result should be very few breaks of serve. This one will almost certainly come down to who plays the crucial points (break points and tiebreakers) better.
Other matches to keep a close eye on are Richard Gasquet vs. Mardy Fish, Guillermo Canas vs. Tommy Haas, Fabrice Santoro vs. Andy Murray, and Nicolas Kiefer vs. Julien Benneteau.
What to Watch For — Nadal, Plain and simple. The question is not if Nadal will reach the semifinals, it's how. If he makes mincemeat out of his opponents like he has been doing the past two months (and if Federer stumbles on his way to the final weekend), Nadal would enter the final as the odds-on favorite.
Prediction — Rafael Nadal
Overall
There's a lot more at stake for Federer than just a record sixth straight Wimbledon title. If Federer loses this and loses it to Nadal, his second-ranked rival will move ever closer to the No. 1 ranking and Nadal will be so far ahead of Federer in the points race that Federer can kiss any chances of finishing the year on top goodbye.
Less importantly, the whispers about Federer losing his grip on tennis domination are growing. Those whispers won't reach a crescendo if Federer loses; those whispers will stop altogether. After all, the end of his reign will no longer be rumored, it will be fact.
If all of that can't get Federer's season turned around, nothing can. The bet here is that it can and it will.
Federer over Nadal for the third consecutive year.
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