You might not know this, but World Cup qualifying is underway on every continent except Europe, who will start after Euro 2008.
CONCACAF (North America plus Suriname and Guyana) is in round two of qualifying, or the first round where the confederations bigwigs play, like the US and Mexico.
First, there's a preliminary round where the minnows of CONCACAF, mostly Caribbean islands, do battle. The winners of those home-and-home matches get a new home-and-home against one of the region's heavies, in the Second Round .
Backing up ... what is a home-and-home? While most U.S. sports settle their series by playing best-of-an-odd-number, soccer series are decided in two games, with each team getting a home game.
If they split their victories, then the team with the better goal differential goes through (so if I beat you 2-0 and you return the favor 4-1, you advance; you outscored me on aggregate).
If the goal differential is the same, or if both matches end in a tie, then the tiebreaker is whomever scored more goals on the road. This is called the Away Goals rule. Did we tie 2-2 at your house and 1-1 at my house? I win. I scored more away goals.
Still tied? Then they play 30 minutes of overtime after the second game (fully, as in basketball, not sudden death, as in NFL football) and then, if still tied, have a penalty shootout.
So, the Second Round. 12 minnows against 12 sharks. Who are the sharks?
1. USA (stock rising)
With better results in friendlies, winning the continental championship (the Gold Cup), and finishing atop the CONCACAF Final World Cup qualifying last round, the Americans are indeed the best in the region at the moment.
Minnow second round opponent: Barbados
Result and analysis: 8-0 in the U.S., Barbados leg to be held Sunday. It was very satisfying to watch the Americans dominate as never before: the win is the largest margin of victory ever for the U.S. Men's National Team.
2. Mexico (stock falling)
Average friendly results, losses to Honduras and the U.S. in the Gold Cup, and a failure to qualify for the Olympics led to the ouster of their coach, Hugo Sanchez, and the appointment of former England manager Sven Goran Eriksson.
Minnow second round opponent: Belize
Result and analysis: Mexico didn't score until the 66th minute in front of a pro-Mexican crowd in Houston, which hosted the Belize home leg due to inadequate facilities in their native land. They added another goal late and will head to their home leg up 2-0. No problem.
3. Honduras (stock rising)
I mentioned that win over Mexico in the Gold Cup, but the Honduras U-23 team also knocked Mexico out of Olympic qualifying, and beat the U.S. along the way (although the U.S. is still going to the Olympics, too). Forwards Carlos Pavon and Carlos Costly are beasts.
Minnow second round opponent: Puerto Rico
Result and analysis: They are already through to the third round, beating Puerto Rico 6-2 on aggregate. Still a moral victory for the Puerto Ricans, who didn't even apply to World Cup or Gold Cup qualifying in their last rotations, and managed a 2-2 draw with Honduras in San Juan.
4. Guatemala (stock rising)
Has also defeated Mexico in the last year. Looking for their first World Cup appearance.
Minnow second round opponent: St. Lucia
Result and analysis: Won first leg 6-0, anticlimactic second leg on Sunday.
5. Costa Rica (stock falling)
The drop-off after No. 4 is big. Costa Rica qualified for the last two World Cups but failed to crack the final four of the Gold Cup and have slipped to a FIFA ranking of 77.
Minnow second round opponent: Grenada
Result and analysis: Costa Rica is very fortunate they are home for the second leg, because Grenada mustered a 2-2 draw with them in the first leg. Program on the decline.
6. Panama (stock holding)
The standard for competence in CONCACAF is to qualify for the Gold Cup and make it to the final round of World Cup qualifying. Panama reliably does both, nothing more.
Minnow second round opponent: (11) El Salvador
Result and analysis: Panama got extremely unlucky in their draw by getting El Salvador, who deserved a bye into the Second Round over about three teams who got one. First round was in the pouring rain of Panama City, and Panama emerged victorious 1-0. Second leg on Sunday.
7. Canada (stock holding)
Hard to know what to say about a team that lost bigger to Estonia (ranked 115th in the world) than they did to Brazil (albeit in Seattle; Estonia was in Europe in a snowstorm). They made a nice run to the 2008 Gold Cup semis.
Minnow second round opponent: (12) St. Vincent and the Grenadines
SVG also qualified straight for the Second Round, so both teams got a bye this far. SVG made the Second Round of qualifying in '06, and while they did not qualify for the Gold Cup, they dragged Jamaica out with them, knocking them out in Jamaica. Canada looks to be through after winning the opening leg in the Caribbean 3-0.
8T. Cuba (stock holding)
See "Panama," except with a couple fewer results each time.
Minnow second round opponent: Antigua and Barbuda
Result and analysis: In what must have been a hell of a game, Cuba won in Antigua 4-3 to capture the first leg. When the Cuba u23 squad came to the US for Olympic qualifying, so many players defected that Cuba could barely man a team to finish the tournament. If Cuba makes it to the third round, they will play the U.S. in Washington, DC. Slick bit of scheduling on the U.S.' part.
8T. Haiti (stock holding)
See Cuba, and then see Panama again.
Minnow second round opponent: Netherlands Antilles
Result and analysis: Haiti is in very serious trouble after only drawing in their home leg of the series. Netherlands Antilles, who beat favored Nicaragua in the first round, sees more than half their roster play professionally in Netherlands.
10. Jamaica (stock falling)
As mentioned before, failed to qualify for the Gold Cup after losing at home to St. Vincent. Went on an Asian Tour last summer and got spanked by Iran (8-1) and Vietnam (3-0).
Minnow second round opponent: Bahamas
Result and analysis: I watched leg one and was quite astounded at how bad the Bahamas were, far worse than Barbados. Jamaica may have sunk, but at least they are pros. The Bahamas are not, culling most of their roster from U.S. colleges (surprisingly, a few white players appeared for them). They weren't just overmatched, they were lost. I liken it to a high school football team playing a D1A school.
But they did hold the final score to 7-0, thanks to highlight reel save after highlight reel save by their goalkeeper, "Wylie." He was outstanding. He was mesmerizing.
So I looked him up and "Wylie" is Dwayne Whylly, and he's a college kid, too. He's the 'keeper at Yale.
11: Trinidad and Tobago
Still reeling from a players strike, this team is a shadow of the team the qualified for the 2006 World Cup.
Minnow second round opponent: Bermuda
Result and analysis: None of the ostensible favorites are in bigger trouble than Trinidad, who lost the opening leg at home 2-1.
The other team to get a bye into the Second Round (albeit less deserving of one than El Salvador) was Guyana. They tied Suriname in Suriname in the first leg on the road.
The winners will go to round three, where they will split into three home-and-home round robin groups of four. If the heavies all win, the groups will look like this:
Group 1
USA
Trinidad
Cuba
Guatemala
Group 2
Mexico
Canada
Jamaica
Honduras
Group 3
Costa Rica
Panama
Haiti
Guyana
If the possible upsets hold (teams that either tied or won the opening leg, or lost by one on the road), then we will switch out Trinidad for Bermuda in Group 1, and change all four teams to Group 3 to El Salvador, Grenada, Suriname, and Netherlands Antilles.
The top two from each group will qualify for the final round, another round robin this time with six teams. Top three of those qualify for the World Cup. Fourth plays a home-and-home inter-confederation playoff with the fifth place South American team. I see the top four in my rankings all getting through.
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