If you've watched any sports news on television in the last few days, you may have heard that the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics are about to meet in the NBA Finals. Really, it's going to be on TV and everything. And you might have learned that they've played a few times before in the Finals. But most of all, you definitely figured out there are some very happy network execs right now.
But enough with the hype, already. NBA Nation is begging for some meat-and-potatoes analysis of what will happen when the 2008 incarnations of these two teams meet. In fact, this intro is already too fluffy. Let's cut right to the hoops:
Keys for the Lakers
Least influential player: Kobe Bryant — This might sound completely outrageous, but Kobe Bryant's play will not be a factor in determining the Finals' outcome. No, I'm serious.
I fully expect Kobe to turn in 30 points, 6 boards, and 6 assists consistently, and that's why Kobe himself won't be the difference between the 2008 banner being green or purple. Let's not forget that our last memory of Kobe in the Finals was his jumper-happy 24-point (on 21 shots) Game 5 in 2004 at Detroit. So while there are plenty of past example of Kobe dominating the offense and leading the Lakers to a win, there are counterexamples, as well. Which leads us to...
Most important player: Pau Gasol — We'll get into this with Boston's keys, but the Celtics have feasted on teams that could not attack from the post on the offensive end. Gasol presents a nasty matchup issue for Doc Rivers. Does he drop Kendrick Perkins on Gasol and provide as much help as possible? That seems like an invitation for Kobe to carve up the paint in kick-outs and penetration. Does Doc use Kevin Garnett on Gasol and hope fatigue/fouls don't become a factor? That has its own nightmare scenarios.
Obviously, Rivers will mix up his defenses, but either way, Garnett will have to pay more attention to Gasol than any big man he's seen this postseason. On top of that, Gasol's underrated ability to get up and down the floor in transition will make Garnett also have to work in that phase of the game. The days of Garnett staying in the backcourt to harass inbounds passes seem to be over.
Spotlight guy: (tie) Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom — With the Celtics' attention being dominated by Kobe and Gasol, Fisher and Odom will have the opportunity to be huge factors. When Gasol sees double-teams in the post, Odom should be the most likely benefactor.
And then there's the point guard issue. Detroit was not able to consistently exploit Boston's musical chairs at the point enough to beat Boston. But you have to think between Phil Jackson and Fisher, there's enough savvy to know that Sam Cassell's done, Rajon Rondo has no confidence, and Eddie House is frustrated by his role. Fisher's impact won't be as obvious in the scoring column, but look for him to make gritty defensive stops and start productive offensives series by beating Rondo with position.
Keys for the Celtics:
Least Influential Player: Ray Allen — I know he exploded in Game 5 against Detroit, but shouldn't that be more of the rule than the exception for a guy being paid max-contract money for his shooting ability? At this point, Boston has to be happy with any contribution they get out of Allen. He's a defensive liability, so if you can't count on his three-point shot, what's he out there for? If you're Doc Rivers, how long can you wait on him to come around in this series before cutting your losses and his minutes?
Most Important Player: Paul Pierce — You could make a good case that Rondo would fit in this spot, but Boston is going to need to score somehow. Against the defensively-minded Cavaliers, Pierce provided that firepower in Game 7. It's tough to imagine Boston routinely scoring less than 90 and winning this series. On the nights when Garnett is not assertive on offense (and with the added defensive responsibilities, there will be a few), Pierce will have to be productive.
Spotlight guy: Kevin Garnett — As inconsistent as Boston's supporting cast has been, the new Big Three (err, Big Two and Ray Allen) will make or break their series. Garnett, especially, has been criticized for not taking over games in key moments, but that's never been his style. Charles Barkley made an excellent point at halftime of one of TNT's contests. In talking about the Cavs and the Celtics, he said neither team gets many easy points.
That idea of nothing coming easy is Garnett's game in a nutshell. He certainly brings more energy and enthusiasm to the arena than anyone, and he's praised as a consummate pro and honored as Defensive Player of the Year for that. But also because of that, he has to take 12-15 foot jumpers in key situations, rather than getting the easy low-post buckets some would expect from him. Perhaps the reason why Garnett doesn't force the issue in key spots is that he knows how hard he has to work to be productive, and respecting those limitations is a heck of a lot better than the alternative: trying to do too much.
Still, I think there will be one or two key moments in this series where Pierce isn't clicking and no one else is stepping up. At that time, Garnett will have to use that grit and determination on which he's built his reputation to get a win.
Finals Prediction
The Lakers have the better coach, the best player, and will get more easy points. That's too much for Boston to overcome; Lakers in five.
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