Buy or sell the Marlins as an NL East threat?
This is a nice young team, but it's an easy sell. Josh Johnson, Sergio Mitre, and Anibal Sanchez on long-term injury absence really hurts the team. The starting rotation remaining, beyond LHP Scott Olsen, isn't up to winning a competitive division. Kevin Gregg is a reliable closer, but Fredi Gonzalez only really trusts Matt Lindstrom and Renyel Pinto to set him up.
The team can hit, with Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, and Josh Willingham a potent lineup. None of them earn more than $450,000 a year — how jealous must Omar Minaya be? They are second the NL in slugging (.456) get on-base sufficiently (seventh in NL at .329) and are sixth in runs scored. With a mediocre starting rotation and a run differential of only +15, the chances of holding off well-balanced teams like the Braves and Phillies, let alone the talent-laden but mentally distraught Mets, is slim.
This is a potentially solid team that could be strong enough to contend in a year or two, given ownership commitment and some support from South Floridians. This year? Not enough depth or experience. Strong sell.
Buy or sell Detroit making the playoffs?
Remember John Kruk, Steve Phillips, and Co. telling us how Detroit was going to score a thousand runs and tear up the AL? Anything that comes out of the mouth of Kruk (the same guy who predicted Randy Johnson would win 30 games in his first season in New York) or Phillips (who is so stupid that people actually think it was him who traded Scott Kazmir for the useless Zambrano not Carlos) must be taken with a healthy pinch of salt, but the Detroit lineup did have a murderers-row look about it.
Detroit can actually hit well — they are third in the AL in runs scored, total bases, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and hits and fourth in home runs. The trouble is they can't pitch — at least so far this season.
They are next to last in team ERA, are the only AL team without a pitcher with a complete game to his name, only Seattle and Texas have given up more runs, only Texas has walked more batters and struck out fewer, and of the 14 save opportunities they've manufactured, 6 have been blown. No team has less quality starts (18 — the White Sox have 33 already).
The turnaround from the 2006 pennant winning team is staggering, though not completely unexpected given a mediocre 2007 for the pitching staff. In 2006, the Tigers led the AL in team ERA, shutouts, and runs allowed, while being second to the Angels in home runs and total bases allowed, quality starts, opponents' slugging percentage, and batting average. Even more surprising than the collapse of the pitching staff is it's essentially the same starters heading to the mound — Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, and Kenny Rogers. Only Rogers should have regressed given that he's approximately 300-years-old.
Robertson was never that good, but he had a career year in 2006. Verlander and Bonderman were supposed to dominate, but Verlander seems to have (worryingly) lost 5 mph from his fastball and Bonderman has never managed an ERA of less than 4.08 for a season. With the bullpen issues (no Joel Zumaya and the worst closer in the AL not named Joe Borowski) to add to a rotation struggling for confidence, I'm selling the Tigers making October despite the obvious run scoring potential.
Buy or Sell Lance Berkman as NL MVP?
The new workout regime has obviously sparked Big Elvis into life after a slightly disappointing 2007. He's tearing it up with a .385 average, a joint league-leading 16 homers and 45 RBIs, and a slugging percentage of .759 that leads the league.
To gauge how staggering William Lance Berkman's start has been, his RC27 (theoretical runs created in a game by nine of the same player) is 13.60, a figure only beaten by Barry Bonds since the turn of the century and almost a whole run better than second place Chipper Jones. There's no way he keeps this up, but with his new (relatively) streamline figure and a potent offense around him, I'm buying numbers around his 2006 totals of 45 homers and 136 RBIs and an MVP award.
Clayton Kershaw or Max Scherzer?
The two most hyped pitching prospects of the year were both called up earlier than anticipated to counter injuries and loss of form in Arizona and L.A. Who's the best — the big Texan 20-year-old lefty or the equally big 23-year-old righty from Missouri?
Scherzer came up first and took Doug Davis's spot in the rotation during his unfortunate illness and he didn't disappoint, despite giving up 5 runs to the Phillies in his first actual start. Since then, he's thrown 14.2 innings and given up 0 earned runs while striking out 16. He had a tendency to walk too many batters in the minors, but he doesn't give up the long ball (0.28 HR/9).
Scherzer throws high 90s and his fastball sinks. His slider is very strong and in time, he could have an upper level changeup. There is some feeling he could end up closing, but that would seem a waste until he's been given a good shot in the rotation, though that's not saying he couldn't make a premium closer.
He doesn't have an easy motion and he gives the impression his elbow is taking quite a bit of stress on each pitch. That said, Cole Hamels was supposed to have undergone Tommy John surgery by now if you believed the experts so predicting DL stints isn't an exact science.
Kershaw throws equally as hard and he does it from the left side. His 98 mph fastball mixed in with a knee-trembling 12-6 curve and a recently honed changeup made him next to unhittable in the minors.
Unfortunately, as he moved up to AA, his BB/9 went in the same direction, hitting a worrying 6.20 at Jacksonville. He only made five starts, so it's a small sample size, but at A ball Great Lakes he was walking batters at the rate of 4.62/9. That said he has huge potential with a phenomenal arsenal and an aggressive mound presence.
In some ways, Kershaw reminds me of the 2006 version of Francisco Liriano, and this is my worry. That big curve can bring on elbow problems with young pitchers and Kershaw's is even more wicked than Liriano's, who totally befuddled major league hitters before his elbow gave out.
Of the two, Scherzer is the more polished, but Kershaw has a slightly better repertoire, and he's a lefty. Kershaw seems the bigger injury risk and carries more expectations in 2008 as his team is struggling to stay on the coattails of the Diamondbacks. Scherzer can quietly sit in the 'pen and make the occasional spot start. The Dodgers run the risk of over exposing Kershaw in his youth with so few minor league starts on his resume and, all things considered, if I was a GM taking one or the other to build my rotation for the future, I'd take Scherzer by a wafer-thin margin.
Buy or sell Edinson Volquez and Cliff Lee as Cy Young winners?
Who saw this coming? The two men leading the ERA race in their respective leagues were both rotation afterthoughts, even in their own clubhouse.
Well, maybe in the case of Lee, tipped to have a bounce-back year on "Baseball Tonight" by Tim Kurkjian before a pitch was thrown and possessing an 18-win season on his resume, there was a hint of a big season to come at some point.
Volquez had come to Cincinnati in the Josh Hamilton deal, but was behind Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto in the young pitching pecking order. He had nothing other than a couple of outstanding efforts (2007 vs. Oakland and 2006 vs. Seattle) on his record.
That said, the team was high on his potential and they can't be disappointed by what they've seen so far. His mid-90s fastball and changeup that takes off 20 mph has given him a whopping K total and an ERA of 1.31. The downside is he's walking too many (33 in 62 IP) and that will come back to bite him. He'll find it tough to keep this pace up over a long season with so few innings under his belt. Strong sell up against Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Co.
Lefty Lee has always had the talent to make a frontline starter, but he wasn't able to build on a strong 2005 season. He's overcome his personal problems and the control problems he suffered during the last two seasons are behind him (9 walks in 66 IP). He'll likely put up a final ERA around 3.00-3.25, but that might be good enough if he can total around 20 wins. Moderate buy, but beware of John Lackey.
Buy or sell a Windy City World Series?
What's not to like about the Cubs, apart from Jason Marquis in the rotation and Jim Edmonds hobbling around center? They can flat-out hit (first in runs, average, OBP, and OPS in the NL and third in SLG) and the rotation is up there with Arizona's as the best in the league. The top three (Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster) will take some beating in a short series and Rich Hill should be back on track for October to be the fourth guy — an upgrade on Jon Lieber or Marquis. Eternal DL candidate Kerry Wood goes down as closer? No problem, meet Carlos Marmol and his 1.69 ERA. Strong buy.
The White Sox are a surprise in the confused AL Central as they reprise their 2005 season, with pitching covering the deficiencies of the offense. The pitching staff is second in ERA, fourth in BAA, second in OPS, third in WHIP, and lead the league at 9 (with Cleveland) in QS. That's sufficient for now, but for the long haul to October, the offense is going to have to kick in at some point to help out Carlos Quentin. Javier Vazquez, Jose Contreras, and Mark Buehrle are looking solid again and youngsters John Danks and Gavin Floyd have helped out. At some point, Cleveland and/or Detroit will get hot, so it's no given that the White Sox will even get out their division, let alone get past the Angels and Red Sox for the AL pennant. Strong sell.
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