Mock NFL Mock Draft Competition

With all due respect to Matt Thomas, the title of "most accurate, most well thought-out mock draft you'll find this side of Mel Kiper, Jr. and the folks at Scouts, Inc." is not his to claim. It belongs (in a tie) to CNNSI's Don Banks and Rob Rang of The Sports Xchange.

How do I know?

Because the past two years I've conducted a Mock NFL Mock Draft Competition, comparing and scoring the mock drafts of a dozen experts from around the country. There are three scoring criteria:

1. The number of correct picks, broken in two categories: dead-on and semi-on. Dead-on picks are those where the right player went in the right slot to the right team. Semi-on picks are those where at least one of those factors (player, slot, team) is correct, but not all. A full point is given for a dead-on pick, a half point for a semi-on pick.

In order to reward those who take the risk of projecting trades (Thomas does, I don't), triple points will be awarded if a player is a dead-on selection after a trade. In other words, Thomas predicts Dallas will trade into the fourth slot in order to select Darren McFadden. If this does happen, Thomas would receive three points instead of the traditional 1 for a dead-on pick.

2. The number of first round players missed.

3. The average differential between the slot a player was predicted to go and where he was actually selected. For instance, Dennis Dodd had Michigan DT Gabe Watson ticketed at #27 in the 2006 first round. He went at #107 to the Arizona Cardinals. The differential for that selection was 80 (biggest of any of our 2006 picks).

The competitors are ranked from first to last in each of the three categories, with those rankings then added to give the final score. Lowest final score wins.

2007 final standings:
1-tie. Todd McShay, Scouts Inc., and Mel Kiper, ESPN; Total score: 5
3. Don Banks, CNNSI; Total score: 9
4. Rob Rang, The Sports Xchange; Total score: 11
5. Pat Kirwan, NFL.com; Total score: 17
6. Peter King, CNNSI; Total score: 18
7. Seth Doria, Sports Central; Total score: 19
8. Len Pasquarelli/John Clayton, ESPN; Total score: 20
9. Pete Schrager, Fox Sports; Total score: 22
10. Jamie Dukes, NFL.com; Total score: 23
11. ESPN SportsNation; Total score: 27
12. Matt Thomas, Sports Central; Total score: 31

2006 final rankings:
1. Rang; Total score: 5
2. Banks; Total score: 7
3. Kiper; Total score: 8
4. Dr. Z, CNNSI: Total score: 12
5. Doria; Total score: 13
6. Kirwan; Total score: 16
7. Clark Judge, CBS Sportsline; Total score: 17
8. McShay; Total score: 19
9. SportsNation; Total score: 27
10. Dennis Dodd, CBS Sportsline; Total score: 28
11. Pete Prisco, CBS Sportsline; Total score: 30
12. Vic Carucci, NFL.com; Total score 32

As you can tell, going off the past two years' performance, Banks and Rang are the undisputed non-Kiper/McShay kings. I've finished fifth and seventh the past two years, respectively, proving my point that somebody should start paying me for this stuff. (Not top dollar by any means, but for all the jackasses out there getting paid, this jackass should get at least a sliver of the jackass pie.)

With all that said, I present my own entry into the third annual Mock NFL Mock Draft Competition. I'll have the full roster of competitors up on my blog The Left Calf this Friday and a wrap of the results next Monday. Have a nice week.

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT, Michigan

I didn't want to believe Bill Parcells would tip his hand so far in advance, but this pick does make sense in the fact new Dolphins coach Tony Sparano is a 20-year o-line coach. And it was Parcells who famously argued that the head coach be allowed to "buy the groceries." GM Jeff Ireland helped build a massive front wall while with the Cowboys, and it makes sense to grab a franchise tackle to anchor a rebuilt line.

(NOTE: This was written and submitted before news broke of Long reaching agreement on a contract with the Dolphins.)

2. St. Louis Rams – Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

With Chris Long and Dorsey available, the Rams have a tough choice. Dorsey is the best interior lineman in the draft by a significant margin, and will make life a lot easier for the other players on the Rams' defensive front (DEs Leonard Little and James Hall, DE/DT Adam Carriker). Unless you're taking a franchise quarterback, you want a top-five pick to be able to come in and contribute right away. With the current configuration of the Rams' roster, Dorsey is the pick that most improves the team on the field from day one.

3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

The Falcons currently sport Joey Harrington, Chris Redman and D.J. Shockley at QB. Anybody want to argue they shouldn't take a chance on a potential franchise signal caller in Ryan?

4. Oakland Raiders – Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State

Howie Long and Al Davis aren't particularly tight, so it's no sure thing Davis would go for Chris Long, despite the legacy factor. And though reports are rampant that Al Davis is madly in love with Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, they already have three or four starting-caliber backs on the roster, with Michael Bush, in his second year after recovering from a broken leg suffered at Louisville, a future star at the position. Even with Davis' penchant for ignoring common sense, I just can't fathom them spending $50 million at such a stacked position. So it's on to Gholston, whose ferocity off the edge more approximates Howie Long than does Howie's son Chris.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

The Chiefs won't be making this selection. With McFadden on the board, there are at least half a dozen teams who would jump at the chance to select the best player in the draft. It could be Dallas. It could be New England trying to jump ahead of the Jets. It could be the Jets trying to prevent the Pats from jumping ahead of them. It could be the Broncos, Panthers, Bears or Lions. One way or another, McFadden isn't dropping out of the top five.

6. New York Jets – Chris Long, DE, Virginia

The Jets get a gift with the second coming of Joe Klecko. He'll be a New York legend after sacking Tom Brady twice in Week 2.

7. New England Patriots – Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

Bill Belichick has shown over and over during his career that when picking this high in the draft, the best value is on the defensive line. Ellis is an elite interior force who would be an upgrade as a backup to Vince Wilfork as a 3-4 NT, and could step in to play along side Wilfork if the Pats decide to go with more 4-3 sets, allowing Richard Seymour to stay on the outside.

8. Baltimore Ravens – Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

The Ravens need to fill three positions — QB, corner, and offensive tackle. Unless they trade back out of this pick, they are only going to be able to land two high prospects for those three positions. After this pick, they have pick 37, then have to wait until the last pick of the third round, number 99 overall. Since Matt Ryan won't be available, Clady brings the best value at a need position.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Keith Rivers, LB, USC

The Bengals' hearts broke when New England took Ellis at 7, but Rivers is still a good get for a team that just plain sucked on defense last year. With the return of Odell Thurman from a two-year ban by the league, the Cincy linebacker corps goes from being a glaring weakness to a position of moderate strength. They should trade Chad Johnson for as a high a pick as they can get in the first round (Philly's 19?) and target the best remaining offensive or defensive lineman.

10. New Orleans Saints – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

The Saints can't go anywhere but corner, but there are four top guys, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. If they can trade back to with somebody eager to jump up for Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall or Florida DE Derrick Harvey, they should pull the trigger. If not, it's Rogers-Cromartie, who seems to have the biggest upside of the top corner prospects.

11. Buffalo Bills – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy State

When you play in a division with Tom Brady and Randy Moss, you need to do two things above all else — rush the passer and cover one-on-one. With Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsey already at DE, and Marcus Stroud imported from Jacksonville to fortify the middle of the defensive line, it makes sense the Bills continue to rebuild their defensive backfield. If Rodgers-Cromartie was still on the board, they would take him because of his height (6'10"), but with him gone to New Orleans, McKelvin is the guy.

12. Denver Broncos – Branden Albert, OG, Virginia

The once formidable Broncos offensive line has fallen on hard times. With big money invested in QB Jay Cutler and the RB tandem of Travis Henry and Selvin Young (an undrafted free agent last year who will command big money), Denver needs to start rebuilding the o-line. Albert's superior athleticism gets him the nod over Pittsburgh's Jeff Otah.

13. Carolina Panthers – Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

Like the Broncos' offensive line, the once-dominant Panthers' defensive line took a step back last year. The explosive Harvey would combine with Julius Peppers and Stanley McClover for a very formidable DE rotation.

14. Chicago Bears – Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall is the consensus pick thanks to his local ties and the fact Cedric Benson stinks. You could also make a very strong argument for Louisville QB Brian Brohm to finally replace somehow-still-employed Rex Grossman. But there's one name on the depth chart that makes those points moot: John St. Clair is their starting right tackle. That's a situation that needs rectifying immediately. And besides, Brohm might still be there at 44. If not, they can take the best of available backs like Jamaal Charles from Texas or Ray Rice from Rutgers.

15. Detroit Lions – Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

As soon as the Lions released 2007 leading rusher Kevin Jones, leaving Tatum Bell as the sole lead back for 2008, it was apparent Detroit would be taking a back with this pick. Living in Big Ten territory, Lions brass know all about Mendenhall's huge season with the Illini.

16. Arizona Cardinals – Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

Edgerrin James is about to turn 30 and will pass the 3,000-carries mark this upcoming season. Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington are capable change-of-pace guys, but not heir apparents. Stewart's toe problems seem to be a diminishing concern, allowing the Cardinals to solidify their future at the position.

17. Minnesota Vikings – Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt

Young franchise quarterback (at least in their minds) + young franchise running back = build your damn offensive line. Williams would start from day 1 at right tackle.

(UPDATE: After writing, the Vikings traded this pick and their two third rounders to Kansas City for Jared Allen, who signed a $74 million extension with $31 million in guarantees. I'm sticking with Williams in the slot. The Chiefs need him even more than the Vikings do.)

(This also opens up the possibility KC will try to pair the 5 and 17 to move up to St. Louis' two-spot to pick Matt Ryan ahead of the Falcons. That would be a mistake.)

18. Houston Texans – Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

The Texans were decimated last season by the prolonged absence of Pro Bowl wide receiver Andre Johnson. Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly is the top-ranked WR on the board, but he's been kind of a bitch about his 40 times at his pro day, blaming his slow times on the strength and conditioning staff. Thomas has just one year of D1 football (transfer from a CC, then came out after his junior year), but that's not a huge concern at the position. His 4.4 speed should help keep safeties from always rolling coverage to Johnson.

19. Philadelphia Eagles – Dan Connor, LB, Penn State

If the Eagles were selecting strictly on value, the pick would most likely be one of the top two remaining corners in Mike Jenkins (South Florida) and Aqib Talib (Kansas). But Connor fills a big need at linebacker and seems like a good fit for defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's system (smart, aggressive, good blitzer). Mel Kiper will call it a reach.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

Despite Kelly's complaints about his 40 time, he is a big, physical, tough receiver with excellent hands — perfect for a team with Jeff Garcia as its starting quarterback. Considering current starters Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard are 36 and 32, respectively, now seems like a good time to add some youth to the position.

21. Washington Redskins - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas

Talib carries some baggage from his time in Kansas, which is why he's down here in the 20s instead of in the top 10. But Washington has shown a propensity to picking defensive backs high in the draft and starting corner Shawn Springs is 33 and on the downslope of his career.

22. Dallas Cowboys – Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

I was going to give the Cowboys Mike Jenkins because he's by far the best value left on the board, but with the expected acquisition of Pacman Jones, corner isn't as much of a need. Dallas owner Jerry Jones has long ties to Arkansas and needs another back to pair with now-starting Marion Barber.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida

Their current starters on the outside are Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend. A replacement is very much needed, and it just so happens one of the steals of the first round is sitting right there for them.

24. Tennessee Titans - DeSean Jackson, WR, California

As much as missing Pacman Jones on defense, the Titans sorely missed his big-play ability as a return man. Jackson becomes an instant highlight real on special teams, plus provides the offense a vertical threat, something they sorely lack.

25. Seattle Seahawks - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina

No real good fit between need and value here for the Seahawks. Though Balmer's scouting reports leave open the possibility he could be the next Ryan Sims (bust DT also out of UNC who went to the Chiefs at sixth overall in '02), Seattle needs to fortify the inside of the defensive line.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

Like Seattle, there's really not a fit for need and value for the Jags at this spot. Expect a trade to somebody wanting to move up for Brian Brohm or Chad Henne. But since I'm not in the business of predicting trades (it might be fun, but the success rate makes playing roulette a safe bet by comparison), we'll give the Jags the best defender on the board.

27. San Diego Chargers – Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

When in doubt, build up the defense. The Chargers don't particularly need linebackers, but Mayo's speed, athleticism, and mean streak should fit right in with the Chargers D.

28. Dallas Cowboys – Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

Good value at a need position with the added bonus of coming from Texas. That's enough to write down Sweed's name on the card.

29. San Francisco 49ers – Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College

If there's one thing you better be able to do in a Mike Martz offense, it's protect the quarterback with your front five, because Mad Mike is not a fan of leaving a back or tight end to help in protection. The massive Cherilus (6'6", 314) can step into right tackle, allowing 2007 first rounder Joe Staley to move to left tackle.

30. Green Bay Packers – Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

Most mocks have the Packers taking a tight end at this spot, either Dustin Keller of Purdue or Fred Davis of USC. But with Donald Lee a rising star at the position, it doesn't make sense for the fiscally-conservative Pack to give a first-round contract at the position, especially since both Keller and Davis are somewhat suspect run blockers. Flowers doesn't have ideal size (5'9", 189), but is strong against the run and should be able to contribute as a nickel back right away. Plus, Charles Woodson is 31. It's always smart to plan ahead.

31. New York Giants – Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue

I wanted to give them Miami S Kenny Phillips, but Phillips seems to carry a lot of characteristics that lead to bust status (not great instincts, lack of discipline). Giants GM Jerry Reese made a point last year of drafting high-character, smart players. With the expected departure of Jeremy Shockey, Keller adds a nice dimension to 2007 fifth-rounder Kevin Boss.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.