The marathon known to many as the NBA season is about to enter its last 4-5-mile stretch. At this point of the year, several teams have already hit the wall. Those destined for the lottery will have to train for the next race. But for the ones that have fought through the physical pain and mental fatigue, a second wind is coming.
When you get to this position, your team has to have an established, productive starting five. But these configurations can't be setup yet, because entering Sunday, we still don't know which teams will play each other. So, until we can dissect each series Thursday, here are my "starting five" questions about the postseason.
1) Can the New Orleans Hornets do any damage this time around?
That's a tall order to ask of them. We've seen Chris Paul develop into one of the premier point guards in the Association. The front line is extremely stout with Tyson Chandler and David West. They've got a proven playoff sharpshooter in Peja Stojakovic. And let's not forget that Head Coach Byron Scott did take the Nets to two consecutive NBA Finals.
The problem is that few of this core group of players (save Stojakovic and, to a lesser extent, Chandler) are really playoff-tested. The Hornets have made leaps and bounds this season. However, to get through seven other teams who have buckets of postseason experience (especially if they get Dallas or Utah in the first round) is to much to ask. I can see them advancing to the second round, but no further.
2) Will LeBron James carry his teammates like he did last year?
Simply put ... no ... at least, not to the Finals. He should be able to get the Cavs past Washington (again). But beyond that, I don't like the matchup with Boston. Although Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett haven't won a title between them, they are hungry (and talented) veterans. Plus, they have a team member who has won a ring or two in Sam Cassell.
While we're on the subject, could someone shake up the East a little bit. I think Cleveland might have some problems with Philadelphia in the first round. But once again, we have LeBron James vs. Gilbert Arenas in the opening stanza. Maybe the result will be different this time around, but in the long run, I don't think it'll matter too much.
3) Can Houston (well, pretty much Tracy McGrady) finally get over their hump?
You'd like to think that this will happen. Since the Rockets went a little cold following their 22-game winning streak, they've gotten back on track, winning five in a row heading into Sunday. The West is so tight that they could still end up grabbing the top seed. That might not be a given, however. While I see them matching up well against Denver, there could be big problems if Golden State pushes their way in.
Other than that, it'll be tough for me to see the Rockets getting through all the other contenders. Remember, this team had home court last year and lost to playoff neophyte Utah. I do like the coaching of Rick Adelman, but can the role players continue to step up and play well starting next weekend?
4) Is Boston vs. Detroit a lock for the Eastern Conference Finals?
Unfortunately for fans of every other playoff team east of the Mississippi, my answer's "You betcha." Detroit is a constant in this situation over the last five years, and they still don't seem to have slowed down with their aging players. I can't see Philadelphia or Toronto causing much concern. And although I do enjoy Orlando, the Stan Van Gundy project is probably one year away from the beginning of their run (remember, he took Miami to within one game of the championship series in his second year).
Boston is on a mission. The Red Sox, Patriots, and Revolution (yeah, I brought up a little soccer) all made it to at least their championship game or series during the last calendar year. Heck, even the Bruins made the NHL playoffs again. The Celtics are trying to keep up with the Joneses. As much of a great player as LeBron is, he doesn't have enough firepower in his arsenal to combat the three gunslingers standing at the other end of the saloon.
Expect a No. 1 versus No. 2 showdown for the right to go to the Finals. And expect some close, tense games, as well.
5) Is there any kind of favorite in the Western Conference playoffs?
Simply put ... no. Whether you're talking prohibitive or slight, there's no way I'm putting all my eggs in one basket at this point. Realistically, every team from seeds one through seven has a legitimate shot at getting out of the conference. The Spurs are the defending champs. The Lakers have the best player. The Suns have the biggest game-changer. The Rockets have shown they can get lightning hot. The Jazz have another year to add to last year's conference finals run.
These teams are also flawed, though. There's no dominant force above another in practically every matchup. Even the eighth-seed has the talent to advance if they put it all together. No matter who you're rooting for, this should be one heck of a ride.
Whether your team has their sprinter's shoes on, or they take their slow and steady pace to the line, all I can hope for is the NBA Finals to end in a photo finish.
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