You have to love the first few weeks of baseball season, when the lack of relevant sample size leads to permutations in the standings that most would need strong hallucinogenic drugs to put together. And there's nothing like the chaotic cocktail of surprise hope and horrified panic that can intoxicate fans in countless cities, impairing their judgment like a few Long Island iced teas.
At this time, some teams fail to find the accelerator, sending fans straight for the literal liquor cabinet. The Tigers are still trying to put the keys into the ignition of their shiny, incredibly expensive new sports car. Others hit the gas right away, allowing fans a brief feeling of exhaust-induced euphoria, and a hope that there is enough gas in the tank of their 1974 Ford Pinto to at least make it into August before being mathematically eliminated. And cost-wise, the Kansas City Royals are certainly the Pinto to the Tigers' Corvette.
But of course, there are always teams that at least sneak their way onto the track of the playoff race well into the season without an RSVP, and in many cases, at least one crashes the party in October. So even though we are about 1/20 through the regular season and dealing with a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, it bears noting what early trends might be fuel efficient and indicative of a future. Plus, at the end, there is a pick for a dark horse that no one has finishing higher than third.
Real Hope?
Kansas City Royals (6-4) — No. Could this team be competitive in the AL Central? Lets face it: the Pinto was a car known to burst into flames upon a rear end collision, and like Ford, the owners have decided that putting the money into recalling or retrofitting the Royals for the long haul was more costly than letting them crash and burn. Billy Butler, who is hitting the cover off the ball, may be one of the top prospects in baseball, and Brian Bannister might be developing into a nice pitcher. But Mark Grudzielanek has a pretty proven track record of not being a .407 hitter, the team has hit four homers total, and no rotation with Brett Tomko and John Bale keeping the staff ERA at 2.25. I just don't think there is enough talent on this team to keep it out of the basement. Some nice players (Joakim Soria, Alex Gordon, Zach Greinke) could keep them from being the complete joke. But even last year, they had three stretches where they won six of eight ... in the first half. Just because this one came to start the season doesn't mean much.
Baltimore Orioles (6-4) — No. When you look at the Orioles' roster, you have to wonder how a team that finished three games out of last with 69 wins last year will compete long-term, considering the ace and starting shortstop (for half the year) from that team are in new cities. Without Erik Bedard or Miguel Tejada, and with no new additions, it's hard to imagine this team is better than the Blue Jays, much less the Yankees or Red Sox. Pitcher Jeremy Guthrie will be hard-pressed to match last year's breakout performance (and he struggled down the stretch), and no one in the rotation of Daniel Cabrera, Steve Trachsel, and a couple guys you've never heard of has a career WHIP under 1.40. Is the offense better? Not much. Luke Scott came in the Tejada trade and has started on fire. Nice prospect, but outside of Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis, the lineup fails to inspire fear. Unless the cowboy/NASCAR blend of Kevin Millar's personality scares you. Which is possible.
St. Louis Cardinals (8-3) — More than the first two. Joel Pinero: injured. Matt Clement: injured. Chris Carpenter: injured, still. Mark Mulder: working on Mike Hampton status, which is to say he is trying to lose his green card and become a permanent resident on the DL. And this is the staff that leads the majors in ERA? Okay, that's not lasting. But Tony LaRussa loves a challenge, and he's got it. And the youth movement will at least inject energy into this team.
Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, and Juan Encarnacion were good players for the Cards, but they can't duplicate the enthusiasm of players like Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, and Chris Duncan, still trying to establish themselves in the infancy of their careers. Especially when that first group is still on the DL, Edmonds and Rolen for new teams. Those young guys no longer have to look behind them and wonder when the starter is coming to replace them. And Troy Glaus at least gives them a slightly less run-down, past-his-prime third baseman than Rolen. This team has enough pieces and the coaching that, if everything breaks right, could be in this race well into August. I just have a hard time seeing teams like the Cubs and Brewers failing to keep up. But they still have Pujols, and will be a tough, scrappy out.
Real Panic?
Detroit Tigers (2-8) — Yes. So this is what $138.7 million buys you, huh? Win No. 1 on April 9? Here's the good news, Detroit: Miguel Cabrera is a stud and will be fine, once the pressure subsides and he gets used to AL pitchers. The lineup is loaded and will score a ton of runs. Kenny Rogers appears ageless, and Justin Verlander is a legit ace. But there is bad news. The Tigers are in a rough division; the defending champion Indians are no worse than last year and the White Sox are a team that has the ability to challenge for the playoffs.
More disconcerting is that Jeremy Bonderman looked like last year's Jeremy Bonderman in his first two starts, which is decidedly bad, and Dontrelle Willis doesn't figure to be any better than he was last year with a move to the AL, which is also bad. And the biggest wild card on this team coming into the season was the bullpen. Someone didn't check under the hood on this team before crowning them. The Tigers will get back into the race. But not a lot of division winners have seven game losing streaks on their resumes, and no team has made the playoffs after starting 0-7. Plus, they got swept by the Royals.
New York Mets (5-4) — No. This team will be right there in the end. Johan Santana and Oliver Perez should drag along a thin back end of the staff, and John Maine should recover from a rough first outing to round out the top three. Besides, did you really expect Pedro Martinez to stay healthy all year? And even if the pitching struggles, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and apparently Carlos Delgado constitute plenty of firepower to keep them in the hunt. And hey, when I started this yesterday they were 2-4, so they are already coming around, see? And to be fair, I won't be too quick to the panic button on a team that is not my favorite in the East to begin with. The Phillies won it last year and the Braves are going to be tougher than most people think, so while the Mets will be there, they aren't world-beaters, anyway.
Colorado Rockies (4-6) — No. Too much talent on the NL champs for them to be in any kind of trouble. (And like the Mets, they won since I started.) But even more than the Mets, they are in a rugged division too talented even to allow a true favorite. And if last year's torrid finish taught us anything, it taught us that counting out this group before it's mathematically eliminated would be tantamount to an action movie hero turning his back on a villain with a gun lying next to him after he'd only been shot once. (Villains can only die when decapitated, crushed beyond recognition, fall from at least seven stories, or are shot a minimum of eight times; everyone knows that.)
Los Angeles Dodgers (4-6) — Yes. Like the other two, I didn't like them as division winners anyway. Even though they are tabbed by some as division favorite, the Dodgers are every bit the flawed quasi-contender they were last year. I live surrounded by optimistic Dodger fans, some of whom think Andruw Jones was a decent signing for the middle of the lineup. Then again, paying Juan Pierre $45 million over five years kind of serves as beer goggles for your standards of "good signing." I love the young group of James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Eithier, and Russell Martin. But there will still be growing pains, and there still isn't a lynchpin that can carry this offense.
Jones has a career average of .262 and a career OBP of .341, neither impressive. He is also clearly on the decline. He hit .222 with 26 homers last year, and, to cite the work of Jason Stark, even in his 51 homer season, his "runs created" stat was lower than any 50-homer player in history. His fielding has also declined in the last several years. As Stark showed, he has become a below average center fielder in terms of range.
The staff is solid and Takashi Saito is a top-rung closer, but this team will be forced to win a lot of 3-2 ballgames, and the Diamondbacks and Rockies both have better lineups, and the Diamondbacks and Padres both have comparable if not better rotations. This team hasn't started horribly, but remember, three of those wins came against the Giants. There will be plenty of that going around in the West. L.A. has started as pretty much what I think it is: right around a .500 ballclub. Which will not leave Dodger fans happy.
Dark Horse
What it all comes down to at this point of the year is that if you took any random seven- or eight-game clip of the season, you could get a lot of funny arrangements. But like the Mariners, Rockies, and Diamondbacks last year, there might be a team that ends up in a race most thought they were a year or two away from. To get away from teams with anomalies for starts, if I had to guess one right now, that team would have to be the Cincinnati Reds.
If youngsters Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto can combine with Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang to form a somewhat respectable starting staff, that team could be dangerous, especially now that they finally have a closer. And those two youngsters, especially Cueto, have been great so far. With Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, and Ken Griffey, Jr. providing firepower, the traditionally strong-hitting team could be a sleeper in a suddenly deep NL Central. They're 6-4, and Dunn hasn't even gotten going yet. Heck, even Corey Patterson is pitching in as if his average isn't going to eventually plummet from the .303 it's at now. (With two walks in 33 AB, he's still not taking pitches; give NL pitchers time to re-learn his tendencies.)
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