Today is April 1. While that isn't a particularly noteworthy day on the calendar, it does kick off the official "later this month" countdown to the NFL Draft on April 26.
While the draft can't compete with the other major days of the sporting calendar (March Madness, Opening Day, any Sunday during the actual season), it is absolutely critical to the development of a franchise.
The Giants have zero chance of winning the Super Bowl in February if they don't completely nail their draft last April (one of the best drafts for any franchise in the past decade). The Giants, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, and Cowboys, a combined 63-17 in the regular season last year, are built from the bottom to the top with solid drafting.
Conversely, teams with generally poor recent drafting histories — Rams, 49ers, Chiefs, Falcons — are relegated to the bottom of the NFL power structure year after year. It's not enough to nail the occasional first-rounder like Stephen Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, and Patrick Willis. You have to hit on at least two or three key contributors in the later rounds per year to maintain a successful program (and that includes trading picks for established vets like the Pats with Wes Welker and Randy Moss, and the Chargers with Chris Chambers).
So as the next month progresses (and it's going to go quickly), keep an eye on what your team is doing. Pay attention to who they bring in for individual visits. Pay attention to which Pro Days your organization brings both the head coach and general manager. Read the experts and read the quotes, then read in between the lines.
If you want your team to win next February, it all starts on April 26.
With that said, some thoughts on what the top five teams will do and why:
1. Miami Dolphins – Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Everybody's talking about Bill Parcells like he's some kind of voodoo mystery man. He's not. He's just like every other old school football man. He wants talented guys who play hard all the time and don't complain. Not only does Long meet those three criteria, he's the only fit of value to need for what the Dolphins are trying to build (and doesn't seem like the type to hold out, always a question with the first pick, especially under Parcells, who hates holdouts). People always remember Parcells' first draft selection in New England as Drew Bledsoe. What they usually forget is the next year Parcells took the best college defensive end and turned him into a stalwart edge rusher who could also drop back in coverage. That guy — USC's Willie McGinist with the fourth pick in 1994.
2. St. Louis Rams – Glen Dorsey, DT, LSU
As much as I've argued for Jake Long in this spot, you can't really argue against Dorsey. He's the best interior lineman in the draft by a significant margin, and will make life a lot easier for the other players on the Rams' defensive front (DEs Leonard Little and James Hall, DE/DT Adam Carriker). Unless you're taking a franchise quarterback, you want a top-five pick to be able to come in and contribute right away. With the current configuration of the Rams' roster, Dorsey is the pick that most improves the team on the field from day one (something beleaguered head coach Scott Linehan really really needs).
3. Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
If I were one to predict trades, this would be the first one. Oakland is taking Darren McFadden at four if he's on the board. So if any other team wants to move up for McFadden, the Falcons hold the keys. Would the Cowboys give up both first round picks (22 and 28) to move up? Probably. Would the Falcons willingly drop 19 spots just to pick up a late first-rounder? I'm not sure. And since I'm not 100 percent convinced a trade happens, I'm sticking with conventional wisdom and giving the Falcons, who currently sport Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and D.J. Shockley at QB, their franchise signal caller in Ryan.
4. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
The Raiders don't need running backs. They were the sixth best rushing team in the league last year. Whether it was LaMont Jordan, Justin Fargas, or Dominic Rhodes, they had a 100-yard rusher in eight of their 16 games. For a team that went 4-12, that's pretty impressive. In other words, McFadden would be a luxury pick for a team that can't afford to take a luxury pick.
But this is the Raiders and McFadden is the biggest flash pick on the board (plus possibly the most talented), so it's a no-brainer for Al Davis, who never met a headline he didn't like.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Jake Long, OT, Michigan
If Ryan were on the board, there might be some discussion between he and Long (since the entire Chiefs organization showed up for Ryan's pro day). But with Ryan gone to the Falcons, the Chiefs have to address their offensive line.
Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.
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