Could 12 Slams Be it For Federer?

As an avid Roger Federer fan, let me start by confessing the following: I hope that I am completely wrong about this article and that the readers will make me eat a hundred paper copies of it by the end of this ATP calender year. Having said that, even the most biased Federer fan should be able to discern the danger signs.

Let's begin by stating the obvious: the number of opponents challenging Federer's position as the best player in the world has recently multiplied. Add to this the few early-round losses incurred by Federer in the last 12 months, and one can clearly observe that the air of invincibility that the number one player in the world carried around the ATP Tour has slowly and steadily passed out of existence.

Rafael Nadal, who has already proven repeatedly that he is the best clay court player in the world (maybe the best clay court player ever), has increased the pressure on Federer by closing the gap. If Federer continues his lethargic play of late, it is doubtful that he will be able to protect his points from the clay court season of 2007. He is still carrying the points earned from a solid clay court season with two finals appearances (Roland Garros and Monte Carlo) and a title (Hamburg). Early-round losses during the clay court season could result in Federer not being the top seed going into a Slam for the first time since Australian Open of 2004.

Novak Djokovic, according to some experts, is already the best player in the world. He leads the ATP Race points in 2008 by a large margin, thanks to his title in Australia and the recent Pacific Life Open. He already has direct and recent wins over the top players on the ATP Tour. His name was in the finals of the last two Slams played. He is the ultimate proof that Nadal is no longer the only adversary turning up the heat on Federer.

But wait, it does not stop there. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the new kid on the block and his arrival at the big scene is not a surprise for most dedicated followers of the tennis world. Tsonga supporters expected big things from their man before this year already, but what they did not expect was a sequence of injuries that forced him to take a month off here and six weeks there during 2006 and 2007. If Tsonga stays injury-free, look for him to be a major factor in the Slams and the top portion of the rankings.

David Nalbandian is definitely not a new kid on the block. However, when one considers his form in the last six months, he has to be considered a top player at the moment. His Australian Open loss in the third round is the only blemish to his otherwise results that include multiple wins over every top player in the world, all in the last six months.

Federer fans can still overlook the competition as a nugatory factor, claiming that Roger has faced stiff competition many times in the past four years, and they are right. However, that is not where the alarm bells are ringing. To see the danger, one must focus away from other players and look at Federer himself and his increasingly insouciant air during competition.

In the semifinals of the Pacific Life Open, despite the best efforts of commentator Justin Gimelstob (please get him off the air) to give all credit to Mardy Fish, who himself admitted that Roger was not at his best, and to ignore the fact that the world number one displayed half-hearted effort to get to balls, displayed no emotion at all at any point during the match and basically looked like he was ready to take the next flight, any tennis fan could detect the sluggishness of his movement and the indifference in his behavior. The match lasted barely an hour, and Federer looked like he just took a casual promenade on the court for the duration of the match.

This is not the first time Federer behaved in this manner. But the frequency has increased lately. In the Masters Series in Rome last summer, Federer walked out and played a completely spiritless match against Filippo Volandri and similarly walked off the court as a straight-set loser short time later. Equally, in the Pacific Life Open of 2007, Federer basically tanked the second set against Guillermo Canas after losing a close first set. A week later, he lost to Canas again, but with a much better effort this time around.

While Federer must realize that he cannot afford to continue this nonchalant series of performances, he must look deeper into himself. Could he have lost the desire to keep performing at this level and keep making the sacrifices to remain at number one? Could some loss of confidence be creeping into his system, in turn causing him to doubt himself whether he can stay at the top? Could he simply be sick of tennis or the grueling traveling schedule?

These are not trivial concerns. These kinds of thoughts invade the minds of top tennis players frequently. Some move on, some decide to take on the challenge. Some simply decide to call it for the day. A closer look at Federer could indicate that he may be one to not enjoy sticking around if he is not going to be performing at his top level.

Roger Federer is not your typical ATP Tour player. He does not have the "dog-eat-dog" attitude towards his job environment. He enjoys the camaraderie with some players, while remaining mostly private. He is a low-keyed, modest individual. Finances are inconsequential for Federer if he were to make a "quit or go" decision; he is set for life.

Even though he is well-respected by his peers, he is a bit of an oddity compared to other players, most of whom display a cut-throat attitude and are consumed by the rankings and points. He is an outsider, not to be taken in a pejorative context at all, much like Andres Gomez, Mats Wilander, and Bjorn Borg were in their own ways. Once realized that they have reached the very top of their potential, and that the slippery slope downwards has begun, these players all faded away quickly. Borg often said that once he was no longer number one, he felt like it was no longer worth the effort for him.

It is distinctly possible that Roger Federer, having reached the zenith of his career, is experiencing the same feelings. If that is the case, he will find it hard to put the time and focus into becoming the best player in the world again. It is unlikely that he will win Roland Garros as long as Rafael Nadal is around. Djokovic, Nalbandian, and others, along with Nadal, have closed the gap on Federer on hard courts. His best chances to win more Slam titles still remain at Wimbledon.

But remember, as dominant as Pete Sampras was on grass, once the downward spiral of his career started, he could not manage to win Wimbledon. In fact, if it was not for the stunning U.S. Open title of 2002, Sampras was just about ready to pack the bags two years after being number one, just not as gladly as he ended up packing them after his title in New York.

If Federer is where Sampras found himself at the end of 2000, still as the number one player in the world, but in the beginning of his slide, reaching 14 Slams to equal Pete's record all of a sudden does not seem to be a lock anymore. Does that mean anything to Federer? That remains to be seen. But it would mean something to those who enjoy tossing around "the best player ever" discussion.

Without a doubt, Federer is one of the best players to ever play the game. Personally, I put him up there with Rod Laver, Pete Sampras, and Bjorn Borg. In fact, a good argument can be made for him being "the best player ever," even if he never picked up a racket again. On the other hand, there would be no question in anyone's mind that he is "the best player ever" if he won a few more Slam titles, or even one Roland Garros title. Simply reaching 14 Slam titles, by winning two more, would end the discussion between him and Sampras.

Roger Federer, if you happen to read this, get your motivation back, you still have a lot to play for. And please do not deny the tennis world a few more years of your magical technique and flawless movement. Battles involving excellent players like Nadal, Djokovic, Nalbandian, and Tsonga would be a delight to watch if the name Roger Federer also stayed in the mix for a few more years.

Federer fans, don't forget to remind me of this column, when and if Federer wins his number 13. I will be glad to weather the storm!