2008 NCAA Tournament Preview

Two days till the greatest weekend of the sporting year. Thoughts on the bracket:

Teams who got jobbed on seeding: Butler (should have been a 5 instead of a 7), Wisconsin (should have been a 2 instead of a 3), Drake (should have been a 4 instead of a 5), Purdue (should have been a 5 instead of a 6), BYU (should have gotten a 7; instead got stuck in the 8-9 game for the second consecutive year), and Portland State (should have been a 14 instead of a 16)

(I had no problem with Tennessee as a 2, though I can see the argument against them being paired in UNC's bracket.)

Teams who owe the Selection Committee a special favor: Oklahoma (got a 6, should have been an 8), South Alabama (got a 10, should have been a 12), Kent State (I like them, but a 9 is two lines too high), Oregon (biggest shocker of the bracket is the Ducks from bubble to the 8-9 game), and Duke (because they have the easiest road to the Elite 8 of any of the top 8 seeds).

I was going to argue that South Alabama didn't deserve a bid over Illinois State, but a look at the profiles shows they did. Both had somewhat similar records and RPIs, but South Alabama was able to break through with some wins against top competition (Mississippi State, Western Kentucky twice, WCC tournament champ San Diego on a neutral court in California), while Illinois State lost all three games to Drake, plus lost their only two non-conference games against top teams Indiana and Kent State. You have to get those Ws against the best competition if you want to be considered one of the best 34.

Arizona State made its point on the court with a sweep of Arizona, plus wins over Xavier, Stanford, Oregon, and USC, but you can't go into the Selection room with a 19-12 record and 296 non-conference strength of schedule.

Despite what Digger Phelps thinks, George Mason is a bad matchup for Notre Dame and Winthrop is a bad matchup for Washington State. We could be looking at a 12-13 game for a spot in the Sweet 16.

I thought the same thing about Old Dominion and Davidson last year. Both lost.

Drake couldn't have been handed a worse hand. The one thing I think screws them up is a dominant shot blocker. If they get past Western Kentucky (they will), they'll likely have to deal with Connecticut sophomore center Hasheem Thabeet, second in the country with 4.5 blocks per game, in the second round. Considering how often Drake attacks the rim (point guard Adam Emmenecker especially), this could be Thabeet's "Look at me, NBA! Here I come!" game (shades of Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant in 2006). And if Drake can't collapse the defense with penetration, they are going to have a much harder time kicking out for open threes.

USC/Kansas State may feature two of the best freshmen in the country, but the deciding factor in the game is going to be a major advantage for the Trojans in the backcourt. USC's Taj Gibson and Davon Jefferson are going to have a much better shot at K-State's Michael Beasley and Bill Walker than K-State's Jacob Pullen, Blake Young, and Clent Stewart have against SC's OJ Mayo, Daniel Hackett, and Dwight Lewis.

Purdue is going to have a tough time making the Sweet 16. Baylor isn't a great match-up for them, and, if they do get past the Bears, Xavier's pressure is going to be difficult for such a young team.

I don't like Miami at all. As a 7 seed facing Saint Mary's as a 10, I like them even less. But for some reason, my Spidey Sense is tingling on this one. My gut says most people are going to pick the Gaels, but that I should go 'Canes.

My gut also says at least one 1 seed is going down in the second round.

Question from a reader on my blog, The Left Calf: "Why in the hell does the selection committee pair up mid-majors in the first round? One of the most exciting parts of the tournament is to watch the mid-majors beat the majors. Ever since George Mason went to the Final Four, they have started doing this crap."

In total, there are only five first-round games featuring both schools from a non-BCS conference: Memphis/Texas Arlington, Butler/South Alabama, Gonzaga/Davidson, UNLV/Kent State, and Drake/Western Kentucky.

Any time you have a top 5 seed from a non-BCS school, they are generally going to play another non-BCS school (except Xavier this year, which drew No. 14 Georgia, a verrrrrrrry low seed for an SEC team). So that takes care of Memphis and Drake.

The others are two 7-10 games and an 8-9. I think this actually has more to do with the committee respecting non-BCS schools than anything else. Five years ago, those teams wouldn't have been able to get single-digit seeding, so they wouldn't get in these kinds of games as the higher seeds. But because of the success enjoyed by mid-majors in the past few years, teams like Kent State that would have been a 12 five years ago are now an 8 and teams like South Alabama and Saint Mary's that would have been left out entirely are getting 10 seeds. So instead of it always being David vs. Goliath for the mid-majors, it's David vs. David.

***

So how's it going to go down? Here's one idiot's opinion on the first two rounds. (If that's what Bob Costas says I am, it must be true. After all, he went to Syracuse.) Back next week with Sweet 16 and Elite 8 breakdowns.

East First Round — UNC over play-in (Coppin State is my guess), Indiana over Arkansas (Jordan Crawford is one of the most underrated freshmen in the country), George Mason over Notre Dame (Irish PG Tory Jackson isn't ready for Mason's Folarin Campbell), Washington State over Winthrop (Wazzu PG Taylor Rochestie is one of the most underrated players in the Pac-10), St. Joseph's over Oklahoma (the Hawks have more ways to score), Louisville over Boise State (steamroll), Butler over South Alabama (the legend of Mike Green continues), Tennessee over American (by 30+)

Midwest First Round — Kansas over Portland State (don't be surprised to see the Vikings up early), Kent State over UNLV (Golden Flashes are much better shooters), Clemson over Villanova (Tigers a much more complete team), Vanderbilt over Siena (beware the popular upset pick), USC over Kansas State (see previous commentary on SC's backcourt advantage), Wisconsin over Cal-State Fullerton (Krabbenhoft!), Davidson over Gonzaga (all about the backcourt), Georgetown over Maryland Baltimore-County (and Hoyas will cover 16.5)

South First Round — Memphis over Texas-Arlington (Memphis' poor free throw shooting not a factor), Mississippi State over Oregon (Dogs too much inside for Ducks), Temple over Michigan State (Christmas in March), Pittsburgh over Oral Roberts (Levance Fields makes all the difference for Pitt), Kentucky over Marquette (because I believe in Billy Ball), Stanford over Cornell (smart kids with athletic scholarships vs. smart kids without athletic scholarships), Miami over Saint Mary's (follow the gut), Texas over Austin Peay (good day, Gov'na)

West First Round — UCLA over Mississippi Valley State (take that, Jerry Rice!), BYU over Texas A&M (comes down to mental toughness), Drake over Western Kentucky (because there's no way Drake's season ends on the wrong end of a 12-5er), Connecticut over San Diego (significant physical mismatch), Purdue over Baylor (been riding the Boilermakers all year; no reason to stop now), Xavier over Georgia (because the workers in the Atlanta airport aren't very nice), Arizona over West Virginia (because I went there), Duke over Belmont (could be Duke's toughest game through the Elite 8)

East Second Round — Indiana over North Carolina (huge risk on my part considering the Hoosiers could very well lose to Arkansas; D.J. White is going to have to play the game of his life), Washington State over George Mason (Derek Low goes off in the second half), Louisville over St. Joe's (steamroll), Tennessee over Butler (thought about the upset for a second, but I'm sticking with the Vols, one of my preseason Final Four picks along with UCLA, Memphis and Indiana — probably why I think they can beat UNC)

Midwest Second Round — Kansas over Kent State (Jayhawks seem more composed this year than in the past few), Clemson over Vandy (Tigers are tougher), Wisconsin over USC (too much everything), Georgetown over Davidson (Hoyas' have the defense to lock up Stephen Curry)

South Second Round — Memphis over Mississippi State (I had to think about it for a long time), Pittsburgh over Temple (too strong in too many places), Stanford over Kentucky (Brock Lopez dominates), Texas over Miami (and it won't be close)

West Second Round — UCLA over BYU (because I'm taking the Bruins to the Final Four no matter who they play), Connecticut over Drake (Thabeet!), Purdue over Xavier (because I just don't trust Xavier), Duke over Arizona (because they both play the same kind of game, but Duke is better at it and has a much deeper bench)

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.