John Maine (RHP, New York Mets)
Johan Santana grabs the headlines, but you'll pay high for his services on draft day. Behind him, John Maine is the only reliable and/or healthy starter on the Mets' roster. Maine will add wins with the high-powered Mets offense behind him and his strikeout rate will hover around a healthy 8 Ks per 9 IP. He needs to cut the walks down and he's prone to the long ball (23 last season), but at 27 (in May), he has time on his side.
His fastball tops out at around 94 mph, but it has good movement and he sneaks up on batters, especially high. He can hit the edges and doesn't get flustered on the mound when things are not going to plan. As late as July 29th, he was sporting an ERA of 2.92, but hit the wall in August and September, understandably as it was his first season starting.
Maine comes with one big warning: his innings count jumped from 90 in 2006 to 191 in 2007 and this usually signifies a red alert. Maine reported arm numbness in August, but pitched 7.2 innings of 1-hit ball in his last start against Florida. He seems durable and is worth taking a chance on in the mid-late rounds of 12-team mixed leagues. I can see 15 wins, 170Ks, and an ERA around 3.60.
Michael Cuddyer (1B/OF, Minnesota Twins)
Cuddyer was one of last season's hot picks to have a big year, but he floundered through 144 games with a variety of niggling injuries and returned mediocre numbers (87-16-81-.276). He's capable of replicating or beating his 2006 numbers of 102-24-109-.284 with a healthy season and could be a mid-round bargain with drafters recalling last season's flop.
Yahoo! Sports fantasy baseball experts composite rankings have Cuddyer behind Jay Bruce, Rick Ankiel, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp, Jeremy Hermida, and Johnny Damon, quite ludicrous considering that five of the above are virtually straight out of AAA ball and unproven and the other (Damon) is always injured and slated to platoon at DH with Jason Giambi or CF with Melky Cabrera.
Cuddyer is at the crossroads of his career and needs a big season to earn a decent paycheck and start to justify some of that first-round selection hype. With Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Delmon Young surrounding him in the lineup, the Twins aren't exactly anemic, so numbers around 100-25-110-.285 aren't impossible.
James Shields (RHP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
26-year-old Shields doesn't get a lot of fantasy love being hidden away amongst the disinterested snowbirds of South Florida. He wasn't a highly-touted prospect, drafted in the 16th round in 2000, and he didn't tear up the minor leagues, but he ended last season in spectacular fashion. His last five starts returned a 2.29 ERA, 3 wins, 30Ks, and almost 8 innings per start.
Shields pitches in the AL East, where dangerous bats lurk in every corner, but he's a solid late-round option to fill out the pitching staff on draft day. Scott Kazmir has gaudier numbers and a stronger arm, but he'll go 8 rounds or so before Shields. He did see a jump in his innings pitched last year (124.2 in 2006 up to 215), so there is a cautionary note.
He could struggle to hit 15 wins, though the Rays figure to be better this season (don't they always figure that?), but he should be a steady pitcher who won't ruin your rotation, returning similar numbers to Maine with less wins.
Dustin McGowan (RHP, Toronto Blue Jays)
McGowan is another young (26 by opening day) pitcher in the brutal AL East. He's been brought along slower than Shields as the Jays can afford to be gentle with their stronger pitching staff, but he's got a decent arm and will add around 7-8 Ks per 9 IP. He needs to watch the walks (3.23 per 9 IP in 2007) and trust his strong arm more rather than nibbling at the edges. The promising post-ASB numbers (3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.17 BAA) will boost his confidence heading into his first full season in the rotation.
Personally, I'm not keen on using top-100 picks on pitchers, bar Jake Peavy and Santana, so it's guys like Shields, Maine, and McGowan in later rounds that are crucial to draft day success. None of them stand out as "aces," but combined with a strong RP core on your team, they can keep the team ERA down and keep you in contention for pitching points.
Brian Wilson (RHP, San Francisco Giants)
Closers, I hate them. You use a high-round pick on them (B.J. Ryan) and they get injured. You panic and make a trade (as I did last season after losing Ryan) for Brian Fuentes and within two weeks, he blows 4 saves and loses the job. The whole closing situation is fraught with danger once you get past Joe Nathan, J.J. Putz, and Jonathan Papelbon.
So one policy is to forget them until the latter rounds and take a flier on those currently in the second or even third chair. The waiver wire always throws up a bunch of emergency closers anyway.
One such flier is Brian Wilson, who is currently in the background behind former first-round pick Brad Hennessey. Wilson nailed down 6 of his 7 save opportunities last season when he got the call in the ninth after Hennessey lost the job. Take out his September 25th meltdown against San Diego and he actually only gave up 6 runs in 22-plus innings and 3 hits in his 6 saves.
Hennessey has the chair right now, but he's lost the job before and doesn't have the type of lights-out stuff managers like in a closer. It wouldn't be a stretch to imagine the job changing hands in spring training or early April. The competition is Steve Kline, Randy Messenger, and Vinnie Chulk, none of which have the look of a reliable ninth-inning guy. It's not hard to see Wilson beating out this motley crew and getting the curly finger from Bruce Bochy.
A note of caution, the Giants are a very poor hitting team and save opportunities are likely to be scarce. But if he's there in the final rounds, snag him and stash him; it could pay dividends.
Carlos Ruiz, (C, Philadelphia Phillies)
Catchers, don't you just hate them more than closers? They take more days off than Paris Hilton, get an RBI once a week, and end up on the DL before August after a fight with one of their own pitchers.
Basically, there are only five catchers worth owing: Victor Martinez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, and Jorge Posada. The rest are a potential black hole of non-production.
Owning Martinez or Martin will cost you a second- or third-round pick and that's a high premium to pay for what they offer in terms of production. So is there anyone down in the low rounds that won't hurt you in the standings?
The Tampa Bay backstop Dioner Navarro might have some improvement in him and if he can healthy for a season, the Pirates' Ryan Doumit has power potential, but the one I like is Carlos Ruiz in Philadelphia. His home stadium will give him a power boost, he's young, and disciplined at the plate. He won't return a David Ross type BA and might knock a few in, even batting eighth in the order.
Something around 60-15-65-.280 is possible, which isn't bad considering catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Paul Lo Duca will go way before him with their greater name recognition and they likely offer less production.
Pedro Feliz (3B, Philadelphia Phillies)
Another Philly who can cash in on a bandbox home stadium, Feliz never seems to get any love from fantasy writers. He's never going to be top-10 material, but if you've missed out on the frenzy addressing needs elsewhere, then Feliz is a viable option who can also fill out any utility spots.
He had his big year in San Francisco in 2006 (22 homers and 98 batted in), but he's young enough (33 in April) to get somewhere around those numbers again in a more friendly hitting park. He'll likely hit sixth or seventh in the order, but in the NL's strongest batting lineup, that will give him plenty of RBI and run scoring opportunities.
Kelly Johnson (2B, Atlanta Braves)
Chase Utley dominates second basemen, but you'll need a top-8-10 pick to grab him so where can you grab some reasonable production in the lower rounds?
Johnson is likely to be still hanging around on the board in the 15th round, but he's potentially a lot better than that. He blazed a trail in April and ended the month with a mighty OPS of 1.066. He couldn't keep that up, but had a steady season until September when he tanked. I'm expecting a much stronger second season as a starter and at 26 by opening day, there's improvement to be had.
Bobby Cox regularly sat him against lefties, but that's unlikely to be repeated in 2008 as he managed to finish the year a robust .272 in 158 AB's vs LHP. He'll hopefully start the season at the top of the line-up, though Cox does move his guys up and down the card, which means he'll bag around 100 runs with the strong Atlanta hitting and he has enough power to get 20 homers and 70 RBI's. That's not a bad return from a guy drafted in the beer-fog rounds.
Luke Scott (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Unless you're in a really deep league, Scott will start the season on the waiver wire. He's going straight on my watch list as there's some hope that he could finally put it together and have a decent full season.
Scott has the potential for strong power numbers, but he could never convince the Houston brass that he was a long-term prospect. He had a good 2006 with only 214 ABs, but a sturdy .336/.426/.622 (AVE/OBP/SLG) that augured well for his future, but it never came off in Texas. A fresh start in Baltimore where he'll be the regular left fielder is just what he needs.
He managed a career high 369 ABs last year with 18 homers and 64 RBIs. Strangely, he hit an abysmal .208/.305/.422 at his home postage stamp-sized stadium and a much better .305/.400/.593 on the road. He also finished the season on a high going .296/.392/.586 after the break. If he can cut down on the whiffs and revert to his 2006 more patient style of hitting, he could bulk up the average.
He's not going to make-or-break anybody's fantasy league standings, but he does have the potential to fill a fpirth outfield spot or fill an injury gap. I'm hoping for a line of 80-25-85-5-.280.
Hank Blalock (3B, Texas Rangers)
The lefty third bagger has been around so long in the majors it's hard to believe he's only 27 and theoretically approaching his peak years. Blalock burst onto the fantasy scene in 2003 with a solid 29 home run 90 runs batted in year and built on that in 2004 (107 R, 32 HR, 110 RBI, 2SB, .276 AVG), but since then, it's been slightly disappointing. Last year was ruined by injury, but he did have a nice comeback from shoulder problems in September (12, 5, 17, 1, .313).
Blalock at his peak was a third- or fourth-round pick and a top-five third baseman. Now he's likely to be still on the boards in the 15th round onwards in 12-team mixed leagues and could be the bargain of the whole draft. The Rangers are no longer the offensive force they were, minus Mark Teixeira, but Blalock will have the benefit of a hitter-friendly home park and a healthy shoulder.
With a full season, I'm predicting 90, 27, 100, 5, .280.
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