In lieu of a verbal highlight reel of the past week, a look at the general landscape of college hoops with barely more than a month until the madness:
THE FRESHMEN
All the hype about this year's freshman class was well-deserved. Michael Beasley has almost single-handedly elevated Kansas State to NCAA tournament lock. Derrick Rose is the starting point guard on the only undefeated team in the country. Kevin Love is the true spine of a UCLA team primed for its third consecutive Final Four run. Eric Gordon showed against an incredibly hostile Illinois crowd just how good he could be for the Hoosiers. And O.J. Mayo not only leads the Trojans in scoring, he leads the conference in minutes played. All five could well be playing in the league next year, and several of their classmates could be joining them. But that doesn't mean they all should.
Five who should go pro
Beasley; 25.2 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 56% FG, 44% 3PFG — I don't know what his wingspan in, but the words "freakish," "holy crapm" and "redonkulous" come to mind. He's got my vote as national player of the year.
Love; 17.5 ppg, 11 rpg, 61% FG — Baby Bruin could already be the Pac-10 Player of the Year. Other than getting in a little bit better shape, there's really nothing for him to gain by staying in college another year.
Mayo; 20.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.4 spg, 37% 3PFG — He's a prototypical NBA gunner in the making. Contrary to public opinion, the kid is an outstanding defender, as well.
Syracuse F Donte Greene; 17.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.2 spg, 1.9 bpg — He's actually better suited for the NBA than he is the college game.
Oklahoma F Blake Griffin; 15 ppg, 8 rpg, 59% FG — He reminds me of Carlos Boozer. (I swear I wrote that before I saw Chad Ford made the same comparison.)
Five guys who should stay in school
Kentucky F Patrick Patterson; 16.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.4 bpg, 59% FG — He's become the man for the resurgent Wildcats but might have trouble adjusting to the physicality of the NBA.
Arizona G Jerryd Bayless; 20.0 ppg, 4.4 apg, 50% FG, 45% 3PFG — I love his game, but he needs to get stronger to take the pounding he'll get driving the lane on the next level. Plus, a Bayless/Brandon Jennings backcourt next year would be the best in the conference, if not the nation.
Gordon; 21.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 47% FG, 41% 3PFG — He's rated as Ford's third overall prospect, but he's had some nights — Minnesota, Connecticut and Wisconsin come to mind — where he's been taken out of his game. Could he make the NBA now? Of course. But if he stayed another year, he could dominate as rookie.
Texas A&M C DeAndre Jordan; 9.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 65% FG — Low numbers are the result of head coach Mark Turgeon's keeping his minutes down to 21 per game. Ford's fourth-ranked prospect, Jordan has great size (7-0, 240), but only four double-digit rebounding games, none against Big 12 opposition. He needs at least one more season, preferably with a lot more minutes, to polish his game.
Florida G Nick Calathes; 15.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 6.2 apg, 1.5 spg — Calathes has had an outstanding freshman season by any criteria, but his low shooting percentage (41% while taking the most shots on the team) is an indication he needs to work on his shot selection before making the jump. Like the other four guys on this list, Calathes would be a lock for the first round if he came out, but he could be a lock for the top half of the lottery if he stayed.
Of those not listed and don't play for Purdue (more on that later), 15 of the best other freshmen this year: Duke F Kyle Singler, Arizona State G James Harden, Gonzaga F Austin Daye, St. Mary's G Patrick Mills, Indiana G Jordan Crawford, Vanderbilt C A.J. Ogilvy, USC F Davon Jefferson, Pittsburgh F DeJuan Blair, Syracuse G Jonny Flynn, LSU F Anthony Randolph, NC State F J.J Hickson, Mississippi G Chris Warren, Wake Forest F James Johnson, Baylor G LaceDarius Dunn, Oklahoma State G James Anderson
(With the exception of Daye and Mills, that's all players from BCS schools. Is that unfair? There are two factors at work: 1) The most talented high school seniors — those that are most ready to contribute — commit to the top programs with the most national recognition. Those programs are also able to provide more minutes because their best players are more likely to leave early to the NBA. Florida is a perfect example of that. 2) I don't get to see a lot of games from smaller conferences. In other words, I don't know what I don't know.)
THE NEW COACHES
Five having a great impact — Tubby Smith (After bolting the high-intensity world of Kentucky hoops, Smith has Minnesota at 15-7 and 5-5 in the Big Ten), Billy Gillispie (Smith's replacement at Kentucky has the Wildcats playing inspired defense and in second in the SEC East), Mark Turgeon (Gillispie's replacement at Texas A&M has Aggies at 20-4 and in line for a top-four seed), Todd Lickliter (Iowa's 11-14 overall record may not be eye-popping, but wins over Michigan State and Ohio State show the former Butler coach has the Hawkeyes moving in the right direction), Keno Davis (I'd say having the best season in the program's century-plus history can be considered "having a great impact.")
As a bonus, Brad Stevens, who took over for Lickliter at Butler, has the Bulldogs at 21-2 and 10-2 in the Horizon. With seven games remaining in the regular season, then the Horizon tournament, then the NCAA tournament, it's quite conceivable the 31-year-old Stevens could end up with more wins this season than he has years on this Earth. I don't know if that's ever happened before, but that's pretty damn impressive.
Five with some work ahead — Gregg Marshall (Wichita State is just 3-10 in the Valley), John Beilein (If it wasn't for Northwestern, Michigan would be the worst team in the Big Ten), Bob Huggins (16-7 record might not look that bad, but West Virginia is still incredibly inconsistent and downright soft at times), Jeff Bzdelik (former Air Force coach is finding life in the Big 12 a bit difficult), Rick Majerus (from the halls of ESPN to being called a heathen by St. Louis Archbishop Raymond Burke, I'd say it's been a difficult transition year for Majerus)
Don't know yet — Kansas State head coach Frank Martin (17-5, 7-1 in the Big 12) is having a fantastic year, but I'm holding back from giving too much kudos because he has two great players bequeathed from Huggins (Beasley and Bill Walker), so it's almost like he's just not screwing up. Maybe that's not fair, but I want to see if he can maintain the success.
Of the other main coaches who took head new head jobs this past offseason, former Wake Forest assistant Dino Gaudio has done a fantastic job holding Wake together after the death of Skip Prosser last summer, new Arkansas coach John Pelphrey (from South Alabama) has the Hogs on the precipice of another NCAA tournament and former Iowa coach Steve Alford started off great at New Mexico (14-2), but the Lobos have struggled in the Mountain West and are now in a tie for fourth at 5-4 in conference.
A-10 VS. MVC
Going into the year, you could see a change in momentum for each of these conferences. The A-10, with senior-dominated squads like Xavier, Dayton, and Rhode Island, was going to make a push as the top non-BCS conference. The Valley, having suffered massive defections from the past few years, was going to have to rebuild.
To a certain extent, that story line has held true. Though Dayton has fallen off with injuries to Charles Little and Chris Wright and is just 4-5 in conference play, Rhode Island and Xavier are a combined 40-8. Chances are pretty good both make the bracket, though both could also very easily get knocked out in the first round (URI in particular). 15-7 St. Joseph's just beat Villanova last week, 14-8 Charlotte has beaten Wake Forest, Davidson, Clemson, and Southern Illinois, and Dayton, despite its struggles in conference, has wins over Louisville (on the road) and Pittsburgh to bolster its resume.
The Valley, on the other hand, has seen Southern Illinois, its flagship program over the past half-decade, collapse after the graduations of Jamaal Tatum and Tony Young. At just 12-12 overall and 7-6 in the MVC, the Salukis are well into auto-bid-or-bust territory. Dana Altman and Jim Les went through some growing pains at Creighton and Bradley, respectively, and Missouri State, for a few years the Presidents of the Selection Sunday Snub Club, is in full free-fall. (I'm afraid the loquacious Barry Hinson might be in his final days in Springfield. If only the Selection Committee hadn't screwed him over the past two years...)
But whether all that translates to a difference in NCAA tournament bids is another matter. Xavier is in. So is Drake, who has yet to remember they should stink. 1-1.
Rhode Island is 20-4, 6-3 in the A-10 and carries a very good RPI of 24. They have a really good non-conference win at Syracuse and have avoided the crushing loss, the worst being at St. Louis (RPI of 102), which really isn't that bad. With three top-50 teams coming to Kingston in a row next week (Xavier, UMass, and St. Joe's), the Rams should be able to clinch a berth prior to heading for Atlantic City for the A-10 tourney. 2-1 Atlantic 10.
Illinois State has a good record at 17-7 (16-7 against D-I) and 9-4 in conference. The RPI isn't particularly strong at 49, and they have a bad loss to Eastern Michigan (RPI 236) hanging around their necks. They missed a shot to defeat Drake (RPI of 6) at home last week and don't have any more big opportunities on their regular-season schedule (Creighton with an RPI of 50 is the best). The question is whether the Selection Committee will overlook the weak computer profile and respect the Valley enough to put through the second-best team strictly because they're the second-best team. I'm betting they do, with the caveat the Redbirds really need to win at least five of their remaining six games in the regular season and avoid an early loss in the MVC tournament. For now, they're in. 2-2.
Then it gets dicey. St. Joseph's is next in line on the A-10 tote board at 15-7. They swept Massachusetts (RPI of 26) and have a semi-decent RPI at 41, but losses to Holy Cross (137) at home and Duquesne (93) on the road won't help their cause. Right now, I'd say they're out, but they do have trips to Rhode Island (Feb. 24) and Dayton (March 8), plus a home date against Xavier (March 6) in order to put themselves back on the right side of the bubble. Temple and Charlotte are next in the standings at 5-3. Temple is only 12-10 with an RPI of 69 and loss to Charlestown and Richmond. No go. Charlotte has the aforementioned nice wins, but horrible losses to Monmouth (298) and Hofstra (253). They would have to damn near run the table and lose in the A-10 title game in order to overcome those for an at-large bid. I'm not holding my breath.
Let's see, who else? After Xavier, Rhode Island, Temple, and Charlotte, it's Massachusetts and Dayton. Wait, actually, it's Duquesne and Richmond at 5-4 before we finally get to the Flyers and Minutemen at 4-5 (along with St. Louis and La Salle). First, Duquesne and Richmond have no shot. None. Second, what the hell does the Selection Committee do with Dayton and UMass with RPIs of 16 and 26, respectively?
On the one hand, Dayton should get some slack for the injuries. 16-6 is still a very good record, and they do have those wins over two of the Big East's best in Louisville and Pittsburgh. On the other hand, they just lost to George Washington (226) and are below .500 in the seventh ranked conference in the country. Massachusetts is in even worse position having lost four of their past six, no injuries as excuses and five of their remaining six opponents have an RPI in the sub-100 range, including Fordham at 181, St. Bonaventure at 249, and GW at 226.
Bottom line for the A-10: if you want a third bid, pray for Dayton to make a run.
Back to the MVC, Creighton, at 16-6, is the conference's only shot at a third at-large, and it's a long shot at best. The Bluejays have a not-great RPI of 50, an unimpressive 148 non-conference strength of schedule, and their only win over an RPI Top 50 team was a home victory in overtime over St. Joe's in December. With four of their final six regular season games on the road, including a Bracketbusters trip to Oral Roberts, the Jays are going to have to work for it.
In the final estimation, I'm guessing it's going to be three each: Xavier, Rhode Island, and Dayton from the A-10, Drake, Illinois State, and Creighton from the Valley. Dayton and Creighton are the picks to win the conference tournaments. Possible spoilers: Duquesne in the A-10 and SIU in the Valley.
THE BRACKETBUSTERS EFFECT
Creighton didn't really get a whole lot of help with the road trip to Oral Roberts. It'll be a good win if they win, but not as good as a loss would be bad. That's not to disrespect Oral Roberts, which is extremely solid at 17-5 and undefeated at 12-0 in the newly-formed Summit League. But beating ORU isn't going to push the committee into including Creighton. A loss and it might be lights out without the MVC auto bid (which they've taken six out of the past nine seasons, so there's a good shot).
On the whole, the Bracketbusters series won't pack the same intrigue as last year. Drake/Butler is the marquis matchup, but we know both are likely going to the tournament, so it's more a battle for seeding than survival. Survival is more fun. On the flip side, Southern Illinois/Nevada would have been a great game last year. This year, both teams are in fifth place in their respective conferences. Likewise, Bucknell/Old Dominion and Davidson/Winthrop would have been a lot more fun last year. (Though Davidson/Winthrop should still be entertaining and is part of the Friday night TV package, so that's good. Any time you can watch Stephen Curry and Jason Richards play, you should take it.)
That's not to say there won't be some quality action. The top five games to watch out for (not including Drake/Butler and Creighton/Oral Roberts, which should be great games, previous commentary not withstanding):
VCU (18-5 overall, 11-2 Colonial) at Akron (17-6, 7-3 MAC)
Kent State (19-5, 8-2 MAC) at St. Mary's (20-3, 7-1 West Coast)
Wright State (17-6, 9-4 Horizon) at Illinois State (17-7, 9-4 Missouri Valley)
Siena (16-8, 11-3 MAAC) at Boise State (17-6, 8-3 WAC)
George Mason (17-7, 9-4 Colonial) at Ohio (16-7, 7-3 MAC)
PURDUE
Leading scorer: E'Twaun Moore, freshman
Second leading scorer: Robbie Hummel, freshman
Third leading scorer: Keaton Grant, sophomore
Fourth leading scorer: Scott Martin, freshman
Leading rebounder: Hummel
Leading assist man: Hummel
Best shooter: Hummel
Record: 19-5 and 10-1 in the Big Ten
I know what Keno Davis has done at Drake is remarkable. Duke is having an incredible season under Coach K. Likewise Georgetown under John Thompson III, UCLA under Ben Howland, Stanford under Trent Johnson, Tennessee under Bruce Pearl, Indiana under Kelvin Sampson, Saint Mary's under Randy Bennett, and Memphis under John Calipari.
But for Purdue coach Matt Painter to sit at 10-1 in the Big Ten, with a sweep of Bo Ryan and Wisconsin in his pocket, with three freshmen and a sophomore as his top four scorers, that's your national coach of the year.
THE FIELD
There's obviously a lot of ball to be played, but you can't have a snapshot column without taking a shot at the field. I don't mess with seedings until the final call. It may be a fun exercise, but it's really just a crapshoot.
SEC (7*): Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Big East (7): Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, USC, Stanford
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor
Big Ten (5): Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
ACC (4**): North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Clemson
A-10 (3): Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton
MVC (3): Drake, Creighton, Illinois State
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Conference USA (2): Memphis, Houston
Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV
America East (1): Maryland-Baltimore County
A-Sun (1): Belmont
Big Sky (1): Northern Arizona (I know Portland State is in first and swept NAU this season, but I still think the Lumberjacks are pulling out the auto bid)
Big South (1): UNC-Ashville
Big West (1): Pacific
Colonial (1): VCU
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Cornell
Metro Atlantic (1): Rider
MAC (1): Kent State (A 12/5er — I can smell it)
MEAC (1): Morgan State
Northeast (1): Robert Morris (Sacred Heart has a half-game lead, but I'm sticking with the Colonials)
Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay
Patriot (1): American (though I'm still hoping Bucknell can pull it out)
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin
SWAC (1): Alabama State
Summit (1): Oral Roberts (though very well could be IUPUI; I'd like to see them play during Championship Week)
Sun Belt (1): South Alabama (Feb. 16 trip to Western Kentucky is a huge game for the Jaguars; A win and trip to at least the conference title game, and South Alabama, with an RPI of 34 and a win over SEC-West leading Mississippi State in their pocket, could be looking at a possible at-large. It's a long shot, but it's not completely out of the question.)
WAC (1): Utah State
* I can't put in Kentucky just yet, but they'll work their way in before it's said and done. It'll be controversial, and a team with a better record will get snubbed to make room for the Cats, but that happens every year. It happened with Arkansas last year and it'll happen with Kentucky this year.
** NC State gets in if they take at least one against Duke or UNC at home.
Top Five Double-Digit Seeds to Fear — South Alabama or Western Kentucky out of the Sun Belt, Oral Roberts or IUPUI out of the Summit, Davidson, Kent State, and VCU
Final Four — No change from the early season call: Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA, and Indiana
Champion — Memphis
I'm sticking with the Tigers, but I have concerns about their free throw shooting. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, their 58 percent shooting from the free-throw line would be by far the worst of a champion in quite some time. At some point, they're going to be in a tight game with the season on the line. No champion finishes the season blowing everybody out. Will they be able to make the shots when they really need them?
Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.
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