Wednesday, January 16, 2008
10 Ways the Chargers Can Beat the Patriots
In Las Vegas, the New England Patriots are 14.5-point favorites over the San Diego Chargers for the AFC Championship Game on Sunday. I would bet my first-born son that the Chargers will cover that spread. I'd bet both my sons that the Chargers will go so far as to beat the Patriots on Sunday except for two things:
1. My wife would kill me.
2. I don't have children ... or a wife.
Just look at the last seven games for the Patriots. If New England's been poor at anything this season, it's in covering their spreads. Their 31-20 victory over Jacksonville marked the sixth time in the last seven games that they didn't cover their spread. And the one time they did, against Pittsburgh, they only covered by a half-point.
Las Vegas is giving New England far too much credit, especially in a game against a Chargers team that matches up so incredibly well against Tom Brady and Co.
Here are 10 things the Chargers need to (and will) do on Sunday afternoon to beat the Patriots:
1. Get Philip Rivers in a rhythm
He's got the most yards so far in the postseason and I don't care if it's eight-yard outs to Antonio Gates or 30-yard slants to Chris Chambers or playing pitch-and-catch with LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Turner, passing the ball is the only way to spread a New England linebacking corps that's aging and do precisely what it takes to do to beat the Patriots, which is...
2. Run, run, run as fast (and hard) as you can
This should be number one, but it hinges on Rivers and the Chargers receivers loosening up an overrated New England defense. Any defensive coordinator in the league would love to lean on the legs of Pro Bowler LaDainian Tomlinson and his league-leading 1,474 yards. You've got to outrush the Patriots if you're to have any chance at winning. Don't believe me? Here's every game the Patriots won by four points or less:
November 4th: NE 24, IND 20 — Joseph Addai (IND), 122 yards
November 25th: PHI 28, NE 31 — Brian Westbrook (PHI), 52 yards
December 3rd: NE 27, BAL 24 — Willis McGahee (BAL), 138 yards
December 29th: NE 38, NYG 35 — Brandon Jacobs (NYG), 67 yards
You've got to run and run it often if you're going to...
3. Dominate the time of possession
In all of the above games, the opposing team had at least 28 minutes time of possession. You've got to keep Wonderboy off the field so he has a chance to get cold and you have a chance to...
4. Make interceptions
In the five games where the Patriots won by 10 points or less, Tom Brady threw five interceptions. In the other 11 games? Three interceptions. Combined. Brady's thrown more balls to receivers in the end zone (50) than punter Chris Hanson's has attempts (44). The Chargers have the best intercepting-secondary in the league, taking 30 passes away from opposing quarterbacks. You've got to take chances away from Brady, or at the very least...
5. Hit him and hit him hard
If you can't end a series, end a down. The teams that come the closest to beating the Patriots hit him and hit him hard. The four teams that came within a score of beating them had nine sacks on Brady. The other 12 teams? Twelve sacks combined. The Chargers had the fifth-most sacks in the league (42). It'll be a test for Chargers defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell to get pressure on the least-sacked, least-pressured quarterback in the league. That's why a more realistic goal might be to...
6. Lengthen Brady's field
It's naïve to think Brady won't be on the top of his game on Sunday afternoon. Realistically, the goal should be to win the special teams battles and coach up your kick and punt coverage teams. The Chargers have the sixth-best punt coverage team in the league, limiting returners to 6.5 yards a return, and have the fourth-best kick coverage team in the league, limiting returners to only 19.9 yards a return. Brady always must be on the long field. And Brady has to be throwing to receivers that are being tackled by a Chargers defense that's thinking...
7. Punish the receivers
They're going to catch passes. Wes Welker and Randy Moss have 210 receptions between them. Jabar Gaffney, the fourth-string wide receiver, has 449 yards, a 12.5 YPC average, and 5 touchdowns. The Chargers defense needs to punish Welker, Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Gaffney for every step they take after the catch so that they can...
8. Get into the Patriots' heads
I'm not buying what Bill Belichick is selling. The Patriots are playing under more pressure than any other team. Brett Favre's retirement, Eli Manning proving to New York he was worth the 2004 draft day debacle, Norv Turner silencing his critics — it's all overshadowed by the Patriots' pursuit of perfection. They're under enormous amounts of stress not to blow it and a few big hits might...
9. Show that you're the more physical team
Their defense is overrated and their offense looks like Madden on Easy Mode. Jar some helmets loose, knock out some teeth, and let Shawne Merriman loose. It's Super Bowl or bust. C'mon, Chargers, you need to...
10. Make this a Cinderella season
Norv Turner takes over a 14-2 Chargers team only to lead his team to more losses in the first four weeks than all last season. He's crucified for not using L.T. as much as you should use last year's league-leading rusher and Philip Rivers plays so badly he doesn't look like he should be playing second-fiddle to Drew Brees ... he should be playing third or fourth. Then you turn it around, win the last six of the regular season, physically dominate a physically dominating Tennessee Titans team, and go into the RCA Dome and Billy Volek hands the ball off to Michael Turner for the victory. There's something in the water in San Diego. Bottle it up and send it to Boston, because you'll need every ounce of that glass slipper to...
11. Beat the goddamned Patriots
Yeah, it's 11, but I hate Brady. I hate Belichick. I hate the fact that Patriots aren't looking to just one-up the 1972 Dolphins — they're looking to two-up them, going 19-0 if they win the Super Bowl. Brady & Co. need to be knocked down a couple of notches and I'd rather stop them before they get to the Super Bowl and enjoy a nice win by Brett Favre over the Chargers.