Over the last week, many people — especially those who work for CBS, FOX, or the NFL, but plenty of others, too — have hyped the second round of the playoffs as "the best football week" of the year. What we actually got was one terrific game, one pretty good game, and a pair of car wrecks.
Seahawks at Packers
This was the first car wreck. After two lost fumbles by Ryan Grant and an early 14-0 Seattle lead, it looked like a blowout, and a blowout was what we got, but the Seahawks were on the losing end. Two or three years ago, Brett Favre might have fallen apart in this kind of game, trying to win everything by himself, right away. Instead, we saw Favre at his best, classic Favre, even, and the Packers won with terrific defense and a record-breaking rushing performance from Grant. Favre and the Green Bay coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for the way they handled the early deficit. Halfway through the third quarter, the Seahawks knew they were beat, and they were just going through the motions, waiting for the nightmare to be over. It made for a boring second half, but the Pack looked terrific. That was probably as fine a coaching job as I've seen all season.
Jaguars at Patriots
This was the terrific game. I hope you'll forgive this when so many people played well, but I can not say enough about the quarterbacks. Tom Brady, after an early coverage sack, was untouchable. He and Peyton Manning are so far ahead of every other quarterback in the game today, I can't think of another time when two QBs have so totally ruled the league. Steve Young and Favre in the late '90s? Dan Marino and Joe Montana in the '80s? John Unitas and Bart Starr in the early 1960s? Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman? Anyway, having said that, I was also very, very impressed with David Garrard. He had a fantastic season, he had a great game and a valiant effort against New England, and I'll look forward to seeing him run Jacksonville's offense in 2008.
Chargers at Colts
The ugliest game of the weekend. The offenses played well; I'm not sure I've ever seen Philip Rivers look so good. Then again, it's easy to look good when no one is playing defense. San Diego couldn't muster much of anything on defense until halfway through the fourth quarter, but I have seldom seen a unit look as ill-prepared for a game as Indy's defense did on Sunday. I don't know if it was too much time between games, or underestimating their opponent, or just bad coaching and bad play, but it was ugly to watch. Bob Sanders, the AP Defensive Player of the Year, was invisible. The Colts never put any pressure on Rivers. Their linebackers and DBs overpursued, got out of position, sold out on fakes, missed tackles, missed some more tackles, and generally stunk up the joint. San Diego won by virtue of having the less-bad defense, not by playing a great game. Damn, what a stinker.
Giants at Cowboys
I have no complaints about the quality of the game, but it was certainly disappointing to see Tony Romo, after the great season he had, play like Joey Harrington. Actually, Joey doesn't deserve that. He had a pretty decent 2007, and it's probably unfair to use him as a byword for bad quarterback play. I even suspect the Cowboys would have had a better chance with Harrington than with Romo on Sunday. The last quarterback who I saw make so many bad decisions in one game was Eli Manning, but Little Manning was just fine in this game. The Giants' defense got an assist from the Cowboys — how did they ignore Marion Barber in the second half? — but I was hugely impressed by its performance on Sunday. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should really get some head coaching interviews.
The Crystal Ball
Chargers at Patriots
I underestimated San Diego last week, and I hope I'm not doing it again now, but I don't see the Chargers beating New England next week, and I'll be a little surprised if they keep it close. Forget the injuries — Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Luis Castillo, Nate Kaeding — and the Patriots' substantial home-field advantage in frosty Foxborough. Forget the 38-14 beatdown New England threw down on the Chargers earlier this season and last year's Patriot win in San Diego that knocked the Bolts out of the playoffs. The Chargers, talented as they are, don't have the firepower to keep up with New England.
Their defense didn't look good against Indianapolis, and it probably won't look any better against New England's record-setting offense. Jacksonville's personnel dictated the "nothing cheap and nothing deep" strategy that allowed Brady to set a postseason record for single-game completion percentage, and the Chargers won't do that. Their strength is in a strong rush and pressure on the quarterback. The problem for San Diego is that their defensive backs are going to be eaten alive by the Patriots' receivers.
On offense, San Diego's weaponless attack — with Tomlinson and Gates gimpy — isn't likely to do much of anything against New England's defense. The Pats' defensive unit isn't what it once was, and there are vulnerabilities, but it's not going to fall apart the way the Colts' did. I believe New England will win, and win big. Let's say 14 points.
Giants at Packers
Everyone loves Championship Sunday, and I'm looking forward to it as much as anyone, but wouldn't this weekend be more exciting if we had Colts at Patriots and Packers at Cowboys? We've been looking forward to those rematches for a long time, and Colts/Pats has become this almost mythical playoff ritual. Why mention this now? Well, Dallas and Green Bay would be a tough game to handicap. But I believe Green Bay will tear the Giants apart.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Giants ran hardly any plays against Dallas; 44 offensive plays in a game is ridiculously low. Their longest drive was eight plays long and ended in a punt. Their time of possession was 23:30. The Cowboys actually outgained them by over 100 yards. The G-Men were efficient on offense and scored touchdowns instead of field goals, with no turnovers. But they won with defense, especially that nasty pass rush that had Romo so rattled in the fourth quarter. The Packers can shut down everything the Giants did well in the Divisional Round.
You think Charles Woodson and Al Harris won't eat Little Manning for dinner? Do you think the Packers will sacrifice Favre the way Dallas failed to protect Romo? Will they abandon their game plan in the second half? New York's defense is not any better than Seattle's, and Green Bay embarrassed the Seahawks this weekend. The Packers have an outstanding offensive line and a quarterback whose strength is handling a pass rush. They are equipped to handle everything the Giants do well, and unless Eli turns into Peyton and Tiki Barber un-retires, I don't know how New York is going to match points with the Packers. Green Bay wins by 10.
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