2007 College Basketball Preview

Most people like to do their season previews before the season actually starts. Not me. I like to see the first few weeks before I put fingers to keyboard with some analysis. It helps get a good sense of the reality on the ground, separate from the hype of the recruiting trail and offseason hope machine (if we can just stay healthy and catch a few breaks early...).

In any regard, it's already been a fantastic season. We've seen several of this year's most highly touted freshmen come in and light up the scoreboard. We've seen several upsets that a few years ago would have set the world on fire. Now they're just part of the normal landscape of college sports. And we're seeing a slight change in the power structure below the BCS plateau.

Five months to March. Here we go.

The Freshmen

If you don't already, you'll soon learn everything you need to know about the second crop of freshman loaded with impact players as a result of the NBA age limit. And, strange as it may seem, this year's group is actually better than last year's. A few of the highlights so far:

Kansas State F Michael Beasley: In six games, he has six double-doubles. In four of those, he's scored 30 or more (the other two were 28 against Western Illinois and the 13-point "debacle" against Rider). And in two of them, he had more than 20 rebounds. Yeah, I'd say he's legit.

Memphis PG Derrick Rose: More of a scorer than a passer at this point, averaging 16.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 2.8 apg. Combines with Chris Douglas-Roberts for the most explosive backcourt in the nation.

Indiana G Eric Gordon: Tied for fourth in the nation in scoring at 27 per, hitting an incredible 56 percent of his shots, 55 percent from three (16-of-29), and 85 percent from the free-throw line (39-of-46). This must be just killing Illinois coach Bruce Webber.

Syracuse G Jonny Flynn and F Donte Green: Combining for more than 31 points, 12 rebounds, and nearly 9 assists per game. Flynn has shown some inconsistency so far, but Green seems to be getting better each time out.

UCLA F Kevin Love: Averaging 19.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game for best team in the country. He's going to bully his way to being Pac-10 Freshman of the Year.

USC G O.J. Mayo: Averaging 21.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. The reason Love beats him for the award because he's on a better team (though USC's 70-45 beating of Southern Illinois was a much more impressive defensive performance than I thought them capable).

And there are so many more (feel free to point some out I may have excluded like Jeremy Price from Georgia or Biko Paris from Boston College). Almost every guy on this list is going to be a major contributor for a major program this season. In no particular order:

James Anderson (F, Oklahoma State, 19.2 ppg), Anthony Randolph (F, LSU, 15.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg), Patrick Patterson (PF, Kentucky, 15 ppg, 8 rpg), Kyle Singler (SF, Duke, 14.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Jerryd Bayless (PG, Arizona, 18.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.2 apg), Jai Lucas (PG, Florida, 9.3 ppg, 27.7 mpg), Nick Calathes (SF, Florida, 14 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kosta Koufos (C, Ohio State, 18.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg), DeAndre Jordan (C, Texas A&M, 10.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, made 29 of 34 field goal attempts); E'Twaun Moore (PG, Purdue, 13.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg), J.J. Hickson (PF, NC State, 18.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Austin Daye (SF, Gonzaga, 13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.5 bpg), Manny Harris (SG, Michigan, 16.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg), DeJuan Blair (PF, Pittsburgh, 10.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg in only 17.8 mpg), P'Allen Stinnett (G, Creighton, 13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.3 spg), Blake Griffin (PF, Oklahoma, 15.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Maurice Miller (PG, Georgia Tech, 9.0 ppg, 3.5 apg before missing last three with a bad back), Rakim Sanders (SG, Boston College, 16.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), James Harden (SG, Arizona State, 17.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Patrick Mills (G, St. Mary's, 15.8 ppg, 5.0 apg)

New Coaches

Just a quick reminder of some new faces in new places:

Minnesota: Tubby Smith (from Kentucky)
Kentucky: Billy Gillispie (from Texas A&M)
Texas A&M: Mark Turgeon (from Wichita State)
Wichita State: Gregg Marshall (from Winthrop)
Michigan: John Beilein (from West Virginia)
West Virginia: Bob Huggins (from Kansas State)
Kansas State: Frank Martin (Kansas State assistant)
New Mexico: Steve Alford (from Iowa)
Iowa: Todd Lickliter (from Butler)
Butler: Brad Stevens (Butler assistant; only 30-years-old)
Wake Forest: Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest assistant; took over for Skip Prosser after Prosser's death)
Colorado: Jeff Bzdelik (from Air Force)
Arkansas: John Pelphrey (from South Alabama)
St. Louis: Rick Majerus (from the buffet line at ESPN studios in Bristol)

Rating the Conferences

We saw it with George Mason's run to the Final Four. We saw it with Southern Illinois and Butler in the Sweet 16. We saw it with Michigan/Appalachian State in football. And we've seen it in spades early this college basketball season:

Anybody can beat anybody at any time.

When even the Atlantic Sun can pull off a trio of upsets like Belmont over Cincinnati, Mercer over USC, and Gardner-Webb over Kentucky, there's no logical reason to assume that one team will beat another solely based on conference affiliation.

But that doesn't mean there still isn't a difference between the conferences. There is. And you can expect the bids and seeding on Selection Sunday to reflect the traditional power structure.

BCS (bids to pretty much any team that finishes .500 in conference and doesn't have major black marks on their non-conference resume; a majority of one and two seeds will come from these six conferences): ACC, SEC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10

BCS Lights (the best teams can garner high seeds, which differentiates them from the true mid-majors): A-10, MVC

A Class of Their Own (one team with national title aspirations in a league of mid major competition): Conference USA, West Coast

True Mid-Majors (It'll take a 25-win season or better for an at-large; Great teams aren't guaranteed great seeds): Mountain West, WAC, MAC, Colonial, Horizon

The best of the rest (only one bid, but may be seeded as high as 12 depending on how many non-conference upsets they can score): Sun Belt, Patriot, Big South, Big Sky, Big West, Southern, A-Sun (this year)

The rest (somebody has to be seeded on the 15 and 16 lines): Ivy, Northeast, America East, NEC, MEAC, Metro Atlantic, OVC, Summit (formerly Mid-Con), SWAC

Eight from the Pac-10?

No.

But the Pacific-10 Conference is still the best in the country top to bottom. Last season, the Pac-10 placed six teams in the field. Of those who made it (USC, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona), every single team got better. Of the four who didn't (Washington, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Cal), every single team got better:

UCLA should be ranked in the top 10 all season on their way to a one or two seed.

There's no reason to expect a drop-off from Washington State, with virtually every body back from last year's breakout.

Oregon lost Aaron Brooks, but they still have most of the players on last year's Elite Eight team (Malik Hairston, Bryce Taylor, Maarty Leunen, and Tajuan Porter).

USC did lose their heart with Gabe Pruitt, Lodrick Stewart, and Nick Young, but they have O.J. Mayo (and Angelo Johnson) to go along with Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett, so everybody kind of believes in them right now, even with the early home loss to Mercer.

Washington lost Spencer Hawes, but gain a year of experience for everybody else (Jon Brockman, Justin Dentmon, and Quincy Pondexter, in particular). Nobody should be surprised to see Lorenzo Romar back in the NCAA tournament this year (they showed tough in the Preseason NIT Final Four, and will be a lot better once Ryan Appleby comes back — they needed his shooting badly).

Stanford lost nobody (except for Brook Lopez for the first semester because of academics), and Cal got lucky with the return of DeVon Hardin to pair with sophomore Ryan Anderson.

One of the big questions will be Arizona. They lost Mustafa Shakur, Marcus Williams, and Ivan Radenovic, but those first two could be considered addition by subtraction. With freshmen Jerryd Bayliss, Jamelle Horne, and Laval Lucas-Perry (the team looks a lot better with him at the one and Bayless at the two) joining Chase Budinger and Jawann McClellan, now another year removed from knee surgery, plus the emergence of sophomore center Jordan Hill, the Wildcats have a much more cohesive roster (better chemistry, hopefully better half-court defense). With that said, there are concerns with the interior depth, with Kirk Walters yet to reclaim the presence he had before injuries and illness wiped him out for last season (his start in the loss last night to Kansas was an encouraging sign). The Pac-10 is loaded with top inside talent, so the lack of depth here could be a major problem for Lute Olson when he returns (hopefully very, very, very, VERY soon).

I'll also make this guarantee: Arizona State will score some major upsets in year two of the Herb Sendek era. (Note: I wrote that before they beat LSU last Wednesday.)

As for Oregon State, I feel bad for Jay John. He's a real nice guy.

It won't be eight bids, but a conference-record seven is very much in the realm of possibility.

The State of the Big East

Already, the middle-to-bottom of the Big East has run into some trouble, as Cincinnati lost at home to Atlantic Sun champ Belmont (and then again to Bowling Green from the MAC), DePaul lost at Creighton in a big early non-conference win for the MVC, South Florida lost at home to Cleveland State, picked at only seventh in the preseason Horizon league poll, and Seton Hall needed overtime at home to put away Monmouth out of the Northeastern conference.

Still, with Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh in the top half of the conference, it would be shocking to see the Big East end up with any fewer than seven bids. (I'm not dumping Louisville because of David Padgett's injury, though it does hurt them considerably.)

Rise of the A-10; Turnover in the Valley

As you'll see below in the tournament field projections, I've got a feeling about the A-10. Xavier is the name on the national scene and the preseason conference pick to win behind point guard Drew Lavender, the Oklahoma transfer who nearly led the Muskateers to an upset win over eventual-runner up Ohio State. But the X-men, who just upset Indiana, are far from the only team with the players to make a postseason run.

Dayton has senior guard Brian Roberts (18.5 ppg) and dynamic freshman forward Chris Wright (22 points and 13 rebounds in his debut). Temple has sophomore guard Dionte Christmas and senior forward Mark Tyndale, the two leading scorers in the conference last year at 20 and 19.4 ppg, respectively. Rhode Island has Jimmy Baron (14.6 ppg with 48% from three last year) and Will Daniels (17.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg). St. Joe's has Pat Calathes (22 and 8 at Syracuse) and Ahmad Nivins (16.2 and 7.4 last year). And St. Louis has Rick Majerus, who is good for at least an extra three or four wins off straight coaching ability.

The story isn't so set in stone in the Missouri Valley, the best of the non-majors over the past few years. We've already seen the results of the massive turnover: Missouri State and Bradley have taken bad losses to Toledo (MAC) and Illinois/Chicago (Horizon), respectively. Drake missed a chance to beat one of the best teams from the WCC, losing to St. Mary's, and Evansville lost its home opener to Samford out of the Ohio Valley. Toledo's struggles since beating the Bears make that one even worse.

On the other side, Creighton's wins over DePaul and Nebraska will help the conference RPI and Northern Iowa got out to a 4-0 start before losing at South Dakota State (not good for the RPI). Missouri State has rebounded with wins over St. Louis (60-56) and Winthrop (73-69), and I'm still feeling big things coming from Normal, Illinois, home of the Illinois State Redbirds (though the losses to Indiana and Kent State have dulled some of the good vibes). It's fair to think the Valley can still land three teams on the bracket, but the middle of the league won't be as strong as the past few years (or it will be in the next few years.)

Sleeper Watch

Last year, we gave you Washington State. This year, it's Purdue.

I don't know how many people realize it yet, but Matt Painter is one of the best coaches in the nation. Not only that, he's a great recruiter, and you're going to start seeing his efforts pay off as he adds top talent like G E'Twaun Moore to a team built on intelligence and gritty defense. (They were so much tougher than Arizona in their NCAA tournament game last year, it was embarrassing to watch as an Arizona alum. And they gave eventual champ Florida more of a game than any other team they played in the tournament.)

Purdue isn't getting any preseason love (no votes in either poll), mainly because they lost fifth-year seniors Carl Landry (18.9 ppg) and David Teague (14.3 ppg). But with Moore and fellow freshmen Scott Martin (13.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg), JaJuan Johnson (10.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg), and Robbie Hummel (8.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg), the cupboard is far from bare. It's tough predicting great things for a team with four freshmen and a sophomore as its five leading scorers, but in a Big Ten that is far from stacked after the top four (Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin), Purdue could very well play into the Big Ten's fifth team in the field.

Other teams to watch out for: Rhode Island (early 6-1 start), Miami (an amazing 10 guys averaging double-digits in minutes through first five), Illinois State, Washington (so much better than they're getting credit for), and George Mason (beat Kansas State by 10 before falling to Villanova in the Old Spice Classic).

Forgetting Somebody?

I almost made it through the entire preview without mentioning Florida, only the two-time defending nation champion. Of course they lost the nucleus of that team to the NBA, but they didn't lose Billy Donovan, who set a record for the shortest turnaround between winning a college title, fleeing to the NBA for big money, realizing coaching in the NBA stinks, then fleeing back to college.

Donovan is going to have to rebuild with freshmen Nick Calathes, Jai Lucas, Chandler Parsons, and Adam Allen. They may not be the next “Oh Fours,” but they have the potential to cut down the nets if they stick around like their predecessors. They're not going to three-peat, but they are most definitely going back to the Dance.

(And if any of them knew who James Bond was, they could legitimately call themselves the “Double-Oh Sevens.” License to kill, baby!)

The Field

There's obviously a lot of ball to be played, but you can't have a preview/predictions column without taking a shot at the field. So here it is. (I did beat Joe Lunardi last year.)

Big East (8): Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova
Pac-10 (6*): UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Washington
ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia, NC State, Clemson
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Big Ten (5): Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
A-10 (3): Xavier, Rhode Island, St. Joseph's
MVC (3): Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa**, Illinois State (I'm sticking with the boys from Normal)
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's (Admission: I didn't have them in until they beat Oregon)
America East (1): Albany
A-Sun (1): Belmont
Big Sky (1): Montana (Watch out for the Grizz in the first round — could be a 12/5er)
Big South (1): High Point
Big West (1): Call State Fullerton
Colonial (1): George Mason (Gave VCU's spot to St. Mary's)
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Yale
Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan
MAC (1): Miami (Ohio)
MEAC (1): Hampton
Mountain West (1): Utah
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay
Patriot (1): Bucknell
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Sam Houston State
SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State
Summit (1; formerly the Mid-Con): Oakland
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WAC (1): Nevada

* I wanted to give the Pac-10 seven bids, but I couldn't take it away from anybody else. If I wasn't such a homer, I might have picked Arizona out. I'm worried about them, though they did show well at KU. But there's no way I'm predicting the end of The Streak, so the Cardinal go NIT. Sorry. I guess your trust funds are going to have to be enough.

** I'm putting in Northern Iowa over original pick Bradley because the Braves lost at home to Illinois-Chicago, a bad omen on their ability to handle a non-conference schedule that includes Michigan State (home; 12/4), Wright State (road; 12/11), Butler (road; 12/19), and VCU (home; 12/22). (They already missed a big chance to pump up their resume by losing to Vanderbilt.) If they don't beat either Wright State or Butler on the road, they'll be 0-3 against the Horizon. That's no way to get an at-large (and I don't think they can beat Creighton or SIU at Arch Madness).

(CORRECTION: The Bradley-UIC game was in Chicago as pointed out by Jim below. Thanks Jim. And though I'm a big Jim Les fan, I still think what will probably be a 1-2 record against the Horizon - assuming they don't shock Butler - will be fatal come Selection Sunday.)

Top Five Double-Digit Seeds to Fear

Montana, Davidson, Bucknell, Western Kentucky, Utah

Final Four

Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA, Indiana (mostly because I would really love to see a Derrick Rose/Eric Gordon matchup in San Antonio).

Champion: Memphis

They've got everything you need:

A true banger/intimidator down low with Joey Dorsey.

A point guard who can penetrate almost any defense in Rose (a bigger, tougher version of Mike Conley).

A legit threat to put up 30 any night against anybody in Chris Douglas-Roberts .

A coach with a history of excellence who hasn't gotten over the hump in John Calipari.

Experience with two straight Elite Eight runs.

A ton of role players on the inside (Robert Dozier, Shawn Taggart) and outside (Willie Kemp, Antonio Anderson).

Great chemistry.

I like I lot of things about a lot of teams, but nobody has it all put together like the Tigers.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.