Sports Central | Articles and Columns

« October 2007 | Main | December 2007 »

November 30, 2007

The European Tour's Global Impact

The European Tour recently announced a deal with Dubai-based Leisurecorp in the order of nearly a quarter of a billion dollars. The deal secures a Dubai office of the European Tour. It also secures a tournament, course, and real estate development co-venture between the two organizations. Most important to the deal, though, is the commitment by Leisurecorp (the government of Dubai, really) of millions of dollars to funding European Tour event prize pools.

The most prominent part of that tournament funding comes in the package now known as the Race to Dubai. Beginning in the 2009 season, the European Tour schedule will run from January through November — like the PGA Tour. The events held under that schedule will, in essence, be turned into a FedEx Cup-styled money race that will determine the top 60 golfers on the European Tour. Total money earned in those events will be tracked on the Race to Dubai list — formerly the prestigious Order of Merit. The top 60 money winners that are qualified European Tour cardholders will then move on to the season ending Dubai World Championship.

The Dubai World Championship, played in November each year, will be the richest tournament in professional golf history. It will have a prize pool of $10 million and reach the plateau that Jack Vickers (of the PGA Tour's former the International event) could not establish here in the States. The limited field of 60 will compete for their share of $10 million in that event.

Also, the final Race to Dubai/Money List standings after the Dubai World Championship will be used as the basis for distributing another $10 million bonus pool to the players qualifying. All told, the effective prize pool for the Dubai World Championship becomes $20 million. And it creates the possibility of a player having a final putt on the 72nd hole of the event for over $3.5 million — depending on the exchange rate.

These are incredible numbers that have never been seen in golf for a single tournament. The question about this development, though, is what kind of impact it will have on the golf world. This piece seeks to address the global implications of the new Race to Dubai.

The Point of the Race to Dubai

This was a move made by the European Tour in an attempt to counter what the PGA Tour had done in 2007 with the formation of the FedEx Cup. The FedEx Cup has a $28 million, four tournament playoff series that culminates in a $35 million bonus pool payout, with $10 million of that going to the ultimate winner of the season-long race. The grand total of $63 million related particularly to the FedEx Cup greatly outweighs the $20 million made available from the Race to Dubai playoff and bonus pool.

It is clear that the European Tour simply does not have the financial resources or global sporting clout that the PGA Tour does in the United States. The European Tour also knows this and realizes it is at a disadvantage. The Euro Tour is years away from being able to compete with the PGA Tour on a head-to-head basis, if ever.

The point of the Race to Dubai is to set the stage for the emergence of the European Tour as an equal to the PGA Tour. Dating back into the 1960s, prominent European players have been leaving their home nations to come to the United States and play on the PGA Tour because of its promise of larger purses, greater competition, and tour stability.

The European Tour simply could not offer that to its players because of its nascent state — emerging just 36 years ago. In fact, the European Tour did not even have its first corporate sponsor, Volvo, until 1988. The development of the European Tour lagged behind the PGA Tour.

Tens of players born in Europe or that made the European Tour a stepping stone on their path to the PGA Tour have made the United States the place where they play the most golf. It made good sense to do that because the PGA Tour conveniently offers many of the most prestigious non-major events on its schedule with huge purses compared to the rest of the world. Even without the potential for appearance fees, players that performed to even a mediocre standard could make a very nice living. Three of the four major championships are held in the United States. Also, the climate in the southern half of the United States is much more conducive to a year-round, world-class professional than most of Europe.

All of those positives have been difficult for the European Tour to combat in its efforts to lure back the players that first made the Euro Tour home. In recent years, there have been a few benefits that were starting to stem the tide.

The most prominent was the development of the multi-year schedule. Like it or not, the fact that the European Tour never stopped touring actually helped the circuit tremendously. It allowed the European Tour to go outside of Europe proper and develop events in Asia and the Middle East — regions that have been clamoring to get into the professional golf spotlight.

A second factor in making those new events successful was the drive of those regions to make golf events prominent immediately. In the world of huge purses in which the events were born into, tournament organizers quickly gathered respectable prize pools using international corporate sponsorship.

Still, that was not enough, so the sponsors then compiled large sums of money that could be devoted to luring in top global players with appearance fees for playing in these "offseason" events. The HSBC Champions event — China's major — is a shining example of this phenomenon. Even Phil Mickelson, notorious for shutting down his season after the U.S. PGA Championship, has been lured by the wheelbarrow full of money awaiting his arrival in China for the HSBC event. While the bribery method may not be the most appealing and has had negative impacts on longer standing events in Australasia, the tactic has worked to get the world's best to venture outside of the United States after the PGA Tour season has ended.

Lastly, a grassroots wave of European nationalism in golf has caused many European-born (or European-living, in the case of Ernie Els) players to return to the Euro Tour more often to support the tour that gave them their start. With increased prize pools, better player development among the 20-somethings of European golf, and better venues, the European Tour is not such a tough selling point now.

Impact on the PGA Tour

The intent of the Race to Dubai, then, is to provide a fourth and most significant benefit for dual cardholders of the European and U.S. PGA Tours in an effort to get them to play in Europe more often and increase the profile of the European Tour. Whether or not this move will actually provide that benefit is still subject to speculation as the 2009 European Tour schedule has not been released and the PGA Tour's answer to the Race to Dubai has not been made known. (Be rest assured, though, that it is coming and I have speculated about what it could be on my Golf News Net blog.)

With what is known, though, it is clear there will be some positives for the European Tour in this new deal. First, the finale of the European Tour season will after the PGA Tour Playoffs end in September. At that point, the PGA Tour will be hosting lame duck Fall Series events that generate little attention and poor fan interest here in the States, much less globally. The golf stage has essentially been cleared by the PGA Tour with the formalization of the Fall Series and the European Tour has said it will stage many of its more prestigious events during October and November as a lead to the Dubai World Championship. Even if the PGA Tour still out-shadows the Euro Tour on a week-to-week basis, the final few months of the global golf season will belong to the European Tour.

Though most of the PGA Tour's week to week events offer more world ranking points than their European Tour counterparts, that trend is starting to change. Several prominent tournaments in Europe like those in the Desert Swing through the Middle East offer significantly higher world ranking points than their PGA Tour counterparts. World ranking points are significant because they are increasingly used to determine exemptions for major tournaments and wealthy non-majors. Add in the incentive of an invitation to a $20 million tournament during the PGA Tour off season by playing in the minimum number of European Tour events to maintain qualification status and many PGA Tour players will suddenly be considering exhausting all three exemptions that they have to play on other tours.

Maintaining European Tour status by playing in 11 Euro Tour official events is fairly simple for the top players. Consider that all four majors and the three World Golf Championships events are co-sanctioned. Now top PGA Tour players simply have to use all three exemptions and participate in the Dubai World Championship to be considered European Tour members every year. It is almost too easy — and by design.

That may very well be enough to induce the top PGA Tour players to consider the European Tour more often. How about the best PGA Tour player, though? How about Tiger Woods? He currently is not a European Tour cardholder. Though he threatened privately to do so at multiple points in his career, he has never paid the minimal fee to become a Euro Tour member. The kicker with the Race to Dubai is that you must be a European Tour member to qualify for the Dubai World Championship. Tiger may very well accept his Euro Tour card now, though.

The Dubai connection may be too tempting for Woods to deny his Euro Tour card. Tiger Woods is developing his first course, Al Ruwaya, in Dubai. Woods has committed to playing in the Dubai Desert Classic for several years in a row. The European Tour strategically can use this relationship to almost force Woods to participate in the Dubai World Championship and, as a result, the European Tour. It might just be brilliant enough to work.

If Woods does participate and become a European Tour member, then that move will have the biggest impact on the PGA Tour. Woods playing as a dual member may very well force PGA commissioner Tim Finchem to lift the three exemption rule and allow for players to enter events on both tours seamlessly. In other words, Finchem would have to allow Woods to expand his Tiger Tour even further and, in the process, extend that right to everyone else.

Impact on Other Tours

This story is not all positive, though, for global professional golf. Through the announcement of the Race to Dubai, the European Tour has declared that it is seeking to establish its own name on the same level as the PGA Tour. They have also declared that they want to do this on their own accord and perhaps at the cost of severely damaging relationships with other global tours that have banded with the European Tour in the past.

Earlier this year, the European Tour announced events for the 2008 season in India and South Korea — new territory for the Tour. They did so, though, without consulting a long time partner in the Asian Tour about co-sanctioning and co-announcing the events. This drew a very strong, public, and negative reaction from the Asian Tour. After all, the two tours had worked together for several years to co-sanction events like the HSBC Champions that would benefit both developing tours. In recent weeks, though, the relationship pains have begun to mend with the likely announcement of co-sanctioning for the Qatar Masters and the new event in India, called the Indian Masters. Still, the signs of disregard from the European Tour on these two events appear to be part of a straining relationship with the Asian Tour.

The Australasian PGA Tour has also had a similar relationship with the European Tour in recent years. Two events during the Aussie season have been co-sanctioned by the European Tour — the Mastercard Australian Masters and the Michael Hill New Zealand Open (being played this week). The announcement of the Dubai World Championship and further schedule modifications has caused doubt about the future of that relationship, though. The Australian Masters would share a date with the Dubai World Championship, which would force the Aussie tradition into extinction. Thus, the Australian Masters will likely have to change its date to October if it seeks to remain on the European Tour schedule. That could cause peril for the Aussie golf season as other tournaments later in the year in Australia may not get a bump from co-sanctioning.

The likely outcome that is developing as a result of these two situations is the emergence of a merged Australasian, Asian, and Japan golf tours as competition to the European and PGA Tours. Throw in the possibility of engaging the Southern Africa (aka Sunshine) Tour, and that could very well be a formidable rival to the European Tour's efforts to expand well beyond Europe. In essence, the Race to Dubai could effectively kill any efforts to create a truly global tour.

Though the full impact of the Race to Dubai is not clear, it is beginning to take shape. The shape is enormous and may have impacts far greater than the European Tour ever intended — for better and for worse. In the end, it appears that the European Tour will become a greater competitor to the PGA Tour. As a result, though, they may also have spawned a new rival. Regardless of the shifting and merging and scheduling, it appears that the golf fan is likely to win.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 11:46 AM | Comments (0)

November 29, 2007

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Green Bay @ Dallas (-6½)

Thursday night's showdown in Dallas certainly won't pack the historical significance of 1967's Ice Bowl, in which the Packers' Bart Starr scored on a quarterback sneak on the game's last play to give Green Bay the 1967 NFL championship over the Cowboys. Especially with Bryant Gumbel and Chris Collinsworth calling the action. And the temperature in Dallas on Thursday night should be at least 100 degrees warmer than the wind chill of -48 on that day in Green Bay. But Thursday's game will go a long way in determining home-field advantage when the NFC playoffs commence in January.

"That was a brutal day in Green Bay," says Brett Favre. "I doubt there'll be any fingertips amputated this Thursday, though. That is, unless Ronnie Lott shows up to prove his manhood again. Who needs the top half of a pinky finger anyway, especially when you're a big-hitting safety? Does anyone 'pinky swear' anymore? Anyway, I know the Cowboys will be well-prepared. They don't want to make that trip to Lambeau come playoff time. Hey, Debbie might do Dallas, but she doesn't do Green Bay in January. Me? I honestly don't care where I play. I'm comfortable in Green Bay; I'm comfortable in Dallas. More importantly, I'm comfortable in Wrangler. And, despite what that fresh prince Will Smith will have you believe, I am legend, not he."

Favre will ride into town with his right arm cocked to face the young gun, Tony Romo, who, like Favre, isn't afraid to make the passes that leave everyone shaking their heads in disbelief. While Favre does it with velocity, Romo does it with unorthodox deliveries from odd angles, sometimes while on the run.

"Brett Favre's time is up," says Romo. "I'm not talking about the end of his career. I'm talking about his time as a paid endorser. He's plugged Wrangler jeans and an upcoming movie starring the man who invented 'bubblegum' rap. The heck with I Am Legend. I want to see I Am Legend's Lesser-Known D.J., starring Jazzy Jeff. Now, it's my turn to 'just shill.' Just in time for the holidays, check out my new cologne, 'Romeau de Toillette.' 'If you've got game, you should smell like game.' At least, that's what it says on the bottle. Anyway, ladies, if your man smells, then this is the man-fragrance for him. It also removes soap scum, and takes the yellow right off of Jerry Jones' teeth."

Favre and Romo go toe to toe, and Romo goes to T.O. several times, but in the end, the Green Bay defense is more reliable, and makes the necessary stops. Favre peppers the Dallas defense with short patterns early, then goes deep to Donald Driver late for the game-winner. Green Bay wins, 26-24.

San Francisco @ Carolina (-3)

David Carr's inability to even remotely connect, via the pass, or mentally, with his receivers, especially Steve Smith, is one of a long list a reasons why the Panthers are 4-7 and headed toward an offseason overhaul. But the Panthers' miscommunication problems aren't limited to just Carr and his disgruntled corps of receivers. Head coach John Fox and his assistants have often been in disagreement about play calls. And Fox can never really get a straight answer from the coin he tosses to determine the starting quarterback.

"There's confusion all around," says Fox. "Especially when the fans start booing. Are they booing the players? Are they booing me? Are they booing the cheerleaders? It really takes a disgruntled fan to boo a cheerleader. But let's face it. If you, along with a counterpart, haven't disgraced the organization, while alternately exciting millions of fans, by performing lewd, but legal, acts in a bathroom stall, then you deserve to be booed. Especially if that's what fans have come to expect. Now, as far as Carr goes, we obviously fooled ourselves into believing he'd be a capable backup. But it's the holiday season. We'll try our best to regift him to an unsuspecting team once the season ends. I've heard those Arena league teams are easy marks, so we should be able to get a sweet two-for-one deal."

The 49ers' offensive ineptness ended abruptly in Arizona last week, when San Fran exploded for 37 points in a 37-31 overtime win. That was a full 26 points more than their average through 10 games. Frank Gore broke out of his slump, with 214 yards and two touchdowns.

"In my mind, I'm going to Carolina," says Gore. "Those words were originally crooned by the original 'J.T.,' James Taylor, whose fiery and tumultuous relationship with Carly Simon probably set the groundwork for some of the greatest music of the 1960s and 1970s. None of which I have ever heard, although I'm sure Timbaland or Kanye West has robbed one or both of a funky beat that Taylor or Simon never imagined would be used as the background beat for a song about some skeezer in a club. Anyway, in reality, I'm going to Carolina, where the Panthers haven't won a game all year."

Prior to the game, Smith perpetrates one of the greatest schemes ever, disabling the starting mechanism on Fox's Plymouth Reliant K. When Fox turns the key, Smith is there to ask Fox what's wrong, while secretly recording his reply. "Car won't start" is Fox's reply. Smith then plays the sound bite to reporters, who report that "Carr Won't Start" in the newspapers. Vinny Testaverde gets the nod and the Panthers win, 19-17.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-7)

Jacksonville gets their second shot at the Colts this year, and this time the Jaguars are ready to pounce. Jacksonville has won three in a row, while the Colts are battling injury situations, including the loss of Dwight Freeney for the year. With the win, the Jags would force a tie at the top of the division.

"When you're trying to get healthy," says Jack Del Rio, "Jacksonville is not the team you want to be playing. We're hardcore, and we're the hard corps. I've seen the Colts' injury report, and frankly, it's a short read. But we can do something about that. I don't want to say there's a bounty on Peyton Manning's head, but if you asked me what my favorite brand of paper towel is, I think you'd know the answer. Besides, Momma Del Rio said 'knock him out,' so we're gonna knock him out. And, the Colts are soft, like Charmin, and like Mr. Whipple says, they don't like to be squeezed. Anyway, much love to Whipple, who recently passed away. In his honor, let's all think of Mr. Whipple with a 24-sheet salute the next time we use toilet paper. I think he would want to be remembered that way."

"Hey, I'm no stranger to bounties on my head," says Manning. "But Steve Spurrier and I made our peace long ago. And bounties on my brother Eli come and go on a weekly basis. He's lucky I, I mean, someone, hasn't paid up. But enough about bounty, the quicker picker-upper, which will surely be my next advertising blitz. Over the last few weeks, my patience has been tested by my decimated receiving corps. Luckily, Reggie Wayne has remained healthy. Otherwise, I'd have been throwing to a bunch of nobodies. Finally, I know what it's like to be David Garrard. It's been a humbling experience, but should serve me well against the Jaguars."

It's one of the hardest-hitting contests in this storied rivalry, but Adam Vinatieri shakes off the Vanderjagt's and nails the game-winning 47-yard field goal. Indianapolis wins, 20-17.

Buffalo @ Washington (-5)

Talk about an evenly matched game. The Bills and Redskins have both lost to the Patriots, by 46 and 45 points, respectively, giving each upper tier status in the 2007 "Patriot Maims" tour, sponsored by Bill Belichick. But blowout losses aside, the Bills and 'Skins are both 5-6 and still very much in the playoff hunt. For both, fulfilling that order may require winning all of their remaining five games.

"We're certainly capable of doing that," says Dick Jauron. "I can see us at 10-6, especially if you read '10-6' like the Chinese, from right to left. But we'll need the proper motivation to go on such a hot streak. In Buffalo, that motivation can come in only one form: free hot wings and a Goo Goo Dolls concert before every game."

Washington lost a narrow 19-13 decision in Tampa last week, as Jason Campbell's pass was intercepted in the end zone to preserve the Buccaneer victory. It was the Redskins' sixth turnover of the day, a statistic that disturbed Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs.

"That's entirely too many," says Gibbs. "I told my guys that the next time I hear talk of that much turnover, it better be in reference to the history of lead singers in Van Halen. But let's be serious for a moment. How could Eddie Van Halen choose his own son over Michael Anthony? I mean, how do you fire the guy who played the Jack Daniels bass guitar and was the voice behind those classic VH harmonies? I guess you'd have to be an egotistical guitar virtuoso with half a tongue to do such a thing. I'm sorry. That was a 'tasteless' comment, or at least half of one."

Redskins win, 23-17.

Houston @ Tennessee (-3½)

The Titans were soundly beaten by the Bengals, 35-6, falling about eight Rob Bironas' field goals short of making a game of it. It was Tennessee's third consecutive loss, which leads you to believe that Titan opponents have figured out what it takes to beat them.

"What? An offense?" asks Jeff Fisher, who absolutely refuses to use Grecian Formula coloring for his salt-and-pepper goatee, under the mistaken belief that you have to be Greek to use it.

No, Fish. First, you have to take away your running game, and make Vince Young beat you with his right arm.

"You mean, like he did with teammate Donnie Nickey in training camp, whom Young pummeled when he thought Nickey was hitting his receivers too hard?" asks Fisher. "Vince beat him with his right arm."

Sure, coach, that would work, too. Defensively, if you can force Young to assault his own teammates during the game, then I think your chances of winning increase eight, maybe nine-fold. But, seriously, if you can keep Young in the pocket and force him to set his feet and throw downfield, then you can expect mistakes. Plus, if you can force him to answer questions pertaining to his aptitude towards problem-solving skills in a timed environment, then you've licked him.

Kris Brown's 50-yard field goal wins it for the Texans, 19-16.

Atlanta @ St. Louis (-4)

Last week, St. Louis quarterback Gus Frerotte, in for the injured Marc Bulger, fumbled the snap on fourth down from the Seattle one-yard line with 27 seconds left, ending the Rams' hope for their third-straight win.

"Hey, not exactly how we designed it," says Scott Linehan, "but probably gave us the same result. Frankly, it would have been a perfect opportunity for Gus to take off in a dead sprint and ram his head into the wall. But, of course, he only does that when he scores. He's not too bright. But he's got a hard head, which one needs when playing behind this offensive line. Now, if all quarterbacks would ram their heads into walls after every mistake, Michael Vick would have more concussions than Bulger, Byron Leftwich would be a vegetable, and Joey Harrington would have trouble playing a Fisher-Price keyboard."

Harrington gets the start, and plays well, giving Bobby Petrino good reason to start Leftwich next week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio can't get over how much better Leftwich looks in a Falcons uniform than a Jaguars. Sadly, though, good play doesn't always result in an Atlanta win. Rams win, 27-17.

Seattle @ Philadelphia (-3)

In a battle of teams that advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs last year, the Seahawks, fresh off a narrow escape in St. Louis, head to Philadelphia to battle the Eagles, who nearly knocked off the undefeated Patriots before falling, 31-28. At 5-6, the Eagles are still in the playoff hunt, but, more importantly, Andy Reid has given the rest of the league some hope of beating the Patriots.

"That's right," says Reid. "I just gave all interested parties the blueprint to beating the Patriots, or at least losing to them by three. To have a chance with the Patriots, you've got to rough up Randy Moss and Tom Brady, and if that means giving up 20 or so catches to a quick, savvy, smart, and hard-nosed slot receiver, then that's the chance you take. I really liked what I saw out of A.J. Feeley, except for the throw that cost us the game. He's earned consideration to start against the Seahawks. We'll just have to see how Donovan McNabb's ankle is doing on Sunday. If he completes his stint in rehab, which is more than I can say for Lindsay Lohan, Britney Spears, or my two sons, then he could be the starter. We want Donovan at 100%, but we're not willing to wait the three years until he gets there."

Matt Hasselbeck and company will be looking for their fourth win in a row and an increase to their two-game lead in the NFC West.

"Fans might remember McNabb as the spokesman for Campbell's Chunky Soup," says Hasselbeck. "Well, that's my gig now, along with LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Todd Heap, Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarcus Ware, and Jonathan Vilma. That's a long and distant memory for McNabb. His only memory of 'chunky soup' is leaving it on the field in Jacksonville in 2002. Grass still won't grow there."

The Seahawks are one of three NFC division leaders playing the underdog this week. Philly is favored by three, and that's got to more than Hasselbeck and his teammates can stomach, so expect them to leave everything on the field, except the contents of their stomach. Seahawks win, 23-19. After the game, Shaun Alexander is tabbed to endorse household cleaning product Soft Scrub.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-3)

If Brett Favre won a John Madden turducken leg for Favre's Thanksgiving Day performance in Detroit, then Detroit's Jon Kitna surely qualified for Madden's 'turd-ucken' award, with his 19-of-40, 224-yard performance against the Packers. Kitna was no match for Favre's 31-of-41, 384-yard, three-touchdown game, and the Lions dropped their third-straight after starting the year 6-2.

"Hey, I love Brett Favre as much as the next guy," says Kitna. "But I don't make it a habit of giving guys I love the leg of some genetically-engineered super-bird. So that's what's been going on in the bowels of the Madden Cruiser. Madden's forcing helpless turkeys, ducks, and chickens into perverted three-way relationships to forge a super-race of poultry. Anyway, I'll gladly accept the 'turd-ucken' from Madden, although I darn sure won't eat it, lest it slow me in my pursuit of winning the 10 games I guaranteed earlier this year. I really don't see anything standing in our way of reaching 10 wins."

"I do," says Minnesota safety Darren Sharper. "It's called 'seven losses.' You know, I have the uncanny ability to look into a quarterback's eyes and tell where he's going to throw the ball, and also where and how he'll die. Once we're on the field Sunday and my eyes meet Kitna's, the vision of his sad and painful death will be erased from my mind as soon as he throws me the first of two interceptions."

Adrian Peterson is set to return to the lineup, which gives the Vikings their only home-run hitter, at least on offense. He's ready to rebuild his NFL rushing lead, and he's bounty-free. Besides, what do the Detroit Lions know about collecting on a bounty? Matt Millen is still there. Minnesota wins, 28-23.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+4)

The Chargers will look to avenge Week 4's 30-16 loss to the Chiefs in San Diego, a loss that left the Chargers 1-3 and doubting their status as one of the favorites in the AFC. Now, the Chargers have modified their goals, eschewing AFC supremacy for something more simple, being the best in the AFC West.

"We're all about setting realizable goals," says Norv Turner. "Take LaDainian Tomlinson, for example. 10,000 yards was his goal, and he easily attained it. Mind you, he set that goal last week when he was sitting on 9,971 yards before the Baltimore game. But the point is, he achieved his goal. Now, if Philip Rivers thinks he can tell 64,000 people in Qualcomm Stadium to shut up and stop booing, then he's setting his goals entirely too high. A more realistic goal would be telling his three relatives in attendance to pipe down on the booing."

Teams in the AFC West treat the division lead like car keys — they lose it on a weekly basis. The Chargers are currently leasing the division lead, and hope to exercise an option to buy pretty soon. Tomlinson rushes for a score, and hushes a hostile Arrowhead Stadium crowd with a late score to Antonio Gates. Chargers win, 23-17.

NY Jets @ Miami (-1)

At 0-11, Miami is still chasing the Holy Grail of winless seasons, the 0-14 campaign of the 1976 Buccaneers. Actually, it's more like that record is chasing them, and nipping at their heels. Last week, Miami lost 3-0 in the quagmire at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field in a game they were capable of winning. If the 'Fins are to pick up a win in their remaining five games, they'll have to do it without Ricky Williams, who was lost for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle.

"I've never been a big fan of wet grass, anyway," says Williams. "Well, it looks like it's back to the old drawing board, which, in smoker's code, means back to the couch for a 'Cheech and Chong' movie marathon and a quick listen to the entire Cypress Hill discography. It's too bad I won't be able to help the Dolphins get that first win, because God knows I helped get them to this point, what with my retirement, suspension, and overall bad decisions."

It's unclear what Jets fans have wanted more this year: Chad Pennington to be benched, or for those unsuspecting top-heavy female Jet fans to acquiesce to the suggestive chants of the Gate D crowd and show their wares. Apparently, Eric Mangini is more easily persuaded than the ladies because Kellen Clemens has been the starter for two weeks, and Clemens shows no signs of giving it up, or becoming the superstar many had hoped for. In any case, Clemens's main objective is to keep the Dolphins winless.

"I think Cam Cameron is doing a bang-up job of that so far," says Clemens. "Granted, Miami has experienced an inordinate amount of injuries this year, with Ronnie Brown and Trent Green going down early in the year, and Ricky Williams and Jesse Chatman getting hurt on Monday. It looks like none of those guys will be returning this year. Who's their trainer? Kathy Bates? Anyway, you never want to be the team that loses to the team that could possibly be the worst in league history. And you don't want to be the team listed as a one-point underdog to said team. I guess it's too late to do anything about that."

Jets win, 21-20.

Cleveland @ Arizona (-1)

The Cards suffered a crushing blow last week when Kurt Warner fumbled in the end zone, and Tully Banta-Cain's recovery gave the 49ers a 37-31 overtime victory, and a sweep of Arizona this year. A win would have positioned the Cardinals at the forefront in the race for one of the wild card spots in the NFC. Now, at 5-6, they're in the boat with five other 5-6 teams most likely battling for one spot.

"I take responsibility for this loss," says Warner. "It was a mistake of biblical proportions, as the fumble recovery by Cain would attest. It was the biggest drop since Moses spiked the Ten Commandments, which, I believe, was the first instance of intentional grounding in the history of mankind. Even then it was a loss of down, forcing Moses to punt to the Mount Sinai False Idols. Boy, talk about a team in need of a leader."

Despite a 7-4 record, the Browns are a one-point underdog to the 5-6 Cardinals. Which begs the question: are the Browns getting their due respect?

"If you ask me," says Kellen Winslow, "I'd say 'no.' Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, and myself are having Pro Bowl-caliber years, and Brady Quinn gets the Subway commercial. If Derek wasn't white, I'd say there was some racism involved. Trust me, I should be the one slingin' footlongs, not Brady. If the money's right, I hear Brady's ready to give up football for the male lead in High School Musical 3."

The Browns trail the Steelers by only one game in the AFC North. A wild card berth seems likely, but the division crown is not out of the question for Cleveland. Assuming they get by Arizona, they'd finish at the Jets, at home against Buffalo, at Cincinnati, and at home versus San Francisco. Not exactly a murderers' row of opponents. The Steelers have to go to New England next week, and face the Jaguars in Pittsburgh the following week. Will everything fall into place for the Browns? Probably not, but stranger things have happened, like backup rookie quarterbacks starring in commercials for national food chains. Browns win, 31-27.

Denver @ Oakland (+3)

Prior to Denver's 37-34 overtime loss to the Bears last week, Bronco punter and junkie Todd Sauerbrun told reporters that the Broncos would not shy away from kicking to Bears kick return king Devin Hester. Well, Sauerbrun's no liar, at least while he's not under oath. The Broncos did kick to Hester, and Hester returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns. On both occasions, Sauerbrun ended up on his back, then ate some crow, and had humble pie for dessert.

"I guess I shouldn't have doubted Hester's greatness," says Sauerbrun. "I should be thanking the guy. He's the only reason reporters talk to punters. I haven't answered this many questions since I appealed my four-game suspension last year. And I've definitely never been this honest."

The Raiders' 20-17 win over the Chiefs last week was their first AFC West triumph in their last 17 division games. With a victory under their belt, they can now focus their attention on bigger and better things.

"You must mean things that keep the big boss man, Al Davis, happy," says Lane Kiffin. "But not necessarily what's best for the team or a particular player. Al's been on me to play No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell. Oh, Al could care less about Russell's development. He just wants to capitalize on merchandise sales. As soon as Russell completes his first pass, Al wants apparel and posters commemorating the 'JaMaculate Reception' on the shelves immediately."

It's an unsettling feeling for the Raiders, knowing they are about to embark on another long AFC West losing streak. That's much like the unsettling feeling young ladies get when they realize, just a bit too late, that they shouldn't have accepted that drink from Sebastian Janikowski. Oakland doesn't have a game-breaking kick returner, or a game-breaking anything for that matter, so the Broncos won't be beaten by their own horrible special teams play. Denver wins, 27-19.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)

A week after demolishing the Panthers, 31-6, the Saints' task gets decidedly tougher as they face the NFC South-leading Buccaneers, who have yet to lose a division game this year. A win would pull New Orleans back to .500 and to within one game of the Bucs for the division lead.

"The .500 winning percentage has been like an impenetrable barrier to us," says Sean Payton, much like the 100-yard mark for Reggie Bush, and much unlike the levees that protect this low-lying city from the threat of surging water. We've been at .500 once; we hope to get their again."

Tampa's Jeff Garcia hurt his back early in last week's 19-13 win over Washington. His availability for Sunday's game is still up in the air, but at kickoff on Sunday, it's apparent that Garcia has a fan base in the Big Easy, as a banner reading "Hey Garcia, hope you're 'back' soon" attests. Garcia sees the sign, takes a cortisone shot to the spine, and leads the Bucs to a 29-24 win.

NY Giants @ Chicago (+2)

As his brother Peyton watched comfortably from a luxury suite in Giants Stadium, Eli Manning threw four interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns in the Giants' 41-17 loss at home to the Vikings. Afterwards, Eli was comforted by Peyton, who gave his younger brother a Super Bowl-ring powered noogie, an Indian burn, and the dreaded pantsing/atomic wedgie combo. Peyton then rifled through the Manning family photo album, and checked his family's birth records, making sure that Eli was never a red-head, and not a step-child.

"That was a pathetic performance," says Tom Coughlin, stifling a fit of rage with the soothing sounds of Yanni Live at Royal Albert Hall. "We were awful. Just awful. You might as well call us the 'Abominable G-Men.' I don't even think Yukon Cornelius could have whipped these guys into shape for the Minnesota game. But I will give them this: my players are always on time for meetings, plane trips, and bus trips. Furthermore, they're right on time for their yearly late-season collapse, which usually coincides with the holiday season."

New York's keys to victory hinge on two important aspects: keeping the ball away from Devin Hester, and Manning's ability to distinguish Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, and Jeremy Shockey from Chicago defenders. Usually, wearing a different uniform than your opponent will suffice in the latter respect, but just to be on the safe side, Burress, Toomer, and Shockey each attach one of those orange flags on an eight-foot pole to their helmets. Yeah, the same kind you had on your bike when you were 11.

Manning correctly throws two touchdown passes, and the G-Men bounce back with a 23-20 win.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7)

Do you think Chad Johnson can come up with a better touchdown celebration in Pittsburgh than the one he debuted last week against the Titans, in which he mounted a platform and manned a television camera?

"Don't worry," says Johnson. "If I score a touchdown in Pittsburgh, I'll rip up a roll of sod, ride it like a surfboard, and shout 'Turf's Up!' Hopefully, those groundskeepers in the Steel City will have the turf in respectable condition come game day. It really wasn't good planning to run 13 Breeder's Cup races the day before a big Monday night game."

The Bengals come to the Heinz on a roll, in the midst of their fourth one-game winning streak of the year. That's tops in the NFL. In last week's 35-6 blitzing of the Titans, Carson Palmer and Johnson connected three times for touchdowns, giving Bengals fans hope that the passing game can carry the team to consecutive wins.

"I really think the return of Chris Henry has helped Chad and T.J. Houshmandzadeh," says Palmer. "With those three on the field, there's no way the opposition can bring a double-team. Chris is really a changed man. I think a lot of that has to do with a higher power, a man known to Chris and others as the Chief of Police. Chris has also benefitted from a new behavioral program for trouble players centered around weekly poetry readings. We call it 'Prose and Cons.' And Chris actually has a pretty good relationship with the commissioner now."

Yeah, the commissioner of Miller Lite's More Taste League, not NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.

Steelers win, 30-24.

New England @ Baltimore (-20)

What did New England's narrow 31-28 victory have in common with several of their other victories this year? Yeah, that's right. The Pats were still trying to score late in the fourth quarter. But if winning pretty is winning by forty, then the Patriots can win ugly, too. And, they can win even if Randy Moss doesn't have a huge game.

"It's funny how when that happens and you're on an undefeated team," says Moss, "nobody questions your effort. I bet if I mooned the fans in Green Bay, Joe Buck would get a big kick out of it. The little bastard. Anyway, we're still undefeated, my cornrows are still tight, and the 1972 Dolphins are still nervous, and not just because of impending death from natural causes. Did those guys wear facemasks back then?"

Despite his team's 4-7 record, and despite the lack of an offense, and despite the Ravens opening as 20-point underdogs, and despite the absence of Jim Fassel to fire and blame for his team's offensive incompetence, Brian Billick is surprisingly chipper about playing the undefeated and undisputed Patriots.

"I think the Patriots quest for an undefeated season is great for the league," says Billick. "I'm reaping the benefits myself. 'Billick' sounds a lot like 'Belichick.' I can't tell you the number of times I've been mistaken for Belichick. I've graciously accepted congratulations. What's that? No, of course I didn't correct them. I'm a sucker for basking in the glory that someone else is responsible for. Didn't you see me celebrate the Super Bowl victory that Marvin Lewis won me? Anyway, Belichick and myself have a lot in common. We're both Super Bowl champs, and neither of us will be in Baltimore next year."

Patriots win, 30-6.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:21 AM | Comments (0)

November 28, 2007

BCS, Heisman Races Coming Into Focus

What a wild year, and just when you thought it couldn't get any more crazy, it did.

LSU and Kansas, the consensus top two teams in the country, both lost over the weekend, meaning that both the spots in the BCS National Championship are up for grabs. With that being said, here's a look at who now has the inside track to not only be in the national title game, but also, the rest of the four BCS games.

BCS Title Game: West Virginia vs. Missouri/Kansas/Ohio State

In my opinion, LSU's loss to Arkansas ended any shot of them winding up in the national title game. In no way should a two-loss team even be considered to play here. Clearly, with the 66-21 trouncing of UConn, West Virginia is definitely in. After a slip-up against South Florida for the second year in a row, the Mountaineers played with a vengeance the rest of the way, and boast perhaps the best running backfield in running backs Steve Slaton and Noel Devine, coupled with quarterback Pat White (more on him later).

The question now is, who will play West Virginia? With their win in Kansas City last night, Missouri has shown that they are an offensive powerhouse, once again scoring over 30 points, and in doing so, remain the only team in the country this year to put up 30+ in every game they have played in. If Missouri can get their revenge on Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, after the Tigers were handed their first loss of the year at Norman back in October, then they are definitely in.

However, if the Sooners can beat Mizzou for the second time, it opens up a world of possibilities. If you look at one-loss teams around the country, it would seem to me that Kansas would once again be the No. 2 team in the country. They steamrolled through their schedule, and their only loss will have come against a top-five team on a neutral site. Ohio State's loss came at Columbus to Illinois, a team that was not even ranked at the time. If Missouri beats Oklahoma, then this is an easy one to predict, but if not, it will all come down to who will be the No. 3 team heading into that game. I think the Jayhawks deserve another chance to get a national title shot.

Sugar Bowl: LSU/Tennessee vs. Kansas

LSU may not play for a national title, but if they beat Tennessee at the Georgia Dome next week, they will still be playing a BCS game in the Superdome. Tennessee looked all but finished after getting whooped by Alabama 41-17 in Tuscaloosa, but have roared back, and capped off their regular season with a quadruple OT win over Kentucky. If the Vols don't win next week, I still expect a fairly close and low-scoring game. If Missouri prevails over Oklahoma, then this will be Kansas' consolation prize for their outstanding run this year.

Fiesta Bowl: Arizona State/Oklahoma/LSU/Florida vs. Hawaii

Despite their home loss to USC, the Sun Devils still could be in the BCS mix, and much like LSU, could get a nifty runner-up prize and play a BCS game on their home territory. Oklahoma will play if they win the Big 12 Championship, and will be looking for revenge after last year's OT thriller against Boise State. If LSU loses again in a wild game, they still could be considered to play in a big bowl game despite having three losses.

Also, an argument can be made for Florida, who have losses against two top-10 teams, and Auburn, who should re-enter the top 25 after their win in the Iron Bowl over Alabama.

Hawaii has run the table and have beaten every team on their schedule. They are now the lone undefeated team after the Jayhawks' loss. Their victory over Boise State should be a ceremonial passing of the torch, as the Cowboys ended last year as the only unbeaten team in the nation. Also, wasn't it just fun to see a team from a small conference like Boise State play in a big game last year?

Orange Bowl: Boston College/Virginia Tech vs. Georgia

The Eagles and Hokies will play in a highly anticipated rematch this Saturday in Jacksonville. After being outplayed basically all game in their first meeting, BC stormed back in the closing minutes, led by quarterback Matt Ryan's heroics, and beat Tech at Blacksburg 14-10. Now, at a neutral site, it will be interesting to see how the Hokies will respond. Look for Tech to continue using a rotating quarterback scheme, with both Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor getting snaps from center. Georgia clearly proved its worth all year long, including quality wins over Florida, Auburn, Alabama, and Kentucky.

Rose Bowl: USC/Arizona State/UCLA vs. Ohio State/Kansas

USC now has the inside track to the Rose Bowl after beating Arizona State on Thanksgiving night. It seems as though what the Trojans needed was to get their young horses some playing time, and now look to be the USC that we have all come to know. A-State can still get in if they beat Arizona next week and have USC fall to UCLA. The big winners could be UCLA. After beating a helpless Oregon team at home, the Bruins have put themselves in a position where, if they beat USC, and Arizona State loses, they are in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State is a lock in this game unless they are somehow able to move up to No. 2. The committee has to put Kansas somewhere, so this could be the spot for them to go.

Heisman Hopefuls

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida — In my opinion, the race starts and ends with Tebow. No QB has ever thrown for 20 TDs and rushed for 20 in the same season. You're now looking at a guy who, in his first year as the starting QB, has thrown for over 3,000 yards, completed 67.5% of his passes, and has 29 TDs. In addition, he's the team's leading rusher, compiling over 800 yards and 22 TDs. No player is more indispensable in the country than Tebow.

Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas — He was the preseason Heisman pick for many people, and after his performances against South Carolina and LSU, has to be back in the top three or four in most ballots. McFadden certainly has lived up to the hype surrounding his second place finish in last year's voting, but Tebow could once again give the Hogs' runner yet another runner-up prize.

Pat White, QB, West Virginia — The Mountaineers have flown under the radar for most of the season, but while teams at the top were moving and shaking with every passing week, West Virginia and their trusty southpaw have slowly been ascending the rankings, and now will play for a national title. White has to be given a lot of credit; he has two outstanding backs behind him, but he has shown a tremendous amount of poise in what can be, at times, a very hectic offense to run.

Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri — If you didn't know the name before, you certainly do now. Daniel has been simply outstanding this year, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards, 33 TDs, and is completing over 70% of his passes. The junior may have had his finest game against Kansas, throwing for 361 yards on 40-of-49 passes, scoring 3 touchdowns and 0 INTs.

Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii — It is now evident that Brennan has to be in the top five with the Warriors sitting as the last undefeated standing. Brennan passed on the NFL last year, deciding to come back for one more year. While his draft stock may not have improved that much (if anything, it's gotten worse), Brennan still put up gaudy numbers, and could have Hawaii poised for their first-ever appearance in a BCS bowl game.

Posted by Rich Lyons at 11:24 AM | Comments (0)

Giving Thanks For College Basketball

Thanksgiving has come and gone, but the holiday season is still upon us and that means it's never too late to stop for a moment and give thanks. It's always a good time to give thanks for family, friends, health, and all the truly important things in life, but there's also a time to give things for other things.

The time for giving thanks to college basketball is now.

The season heated up two weeks ago and NCAA basketball is already reminding me why I love it so much. Why it's the best sport around. Why I'm thankful for it.

I'm thankful that it's not college football. I'm thankful that there's no BCS, so that instead of having a combustible conglomeration of computers and humans tell us who the best team in the land is, we find that out for certain right there on the basketball court. I'm thankful that teams have a loss — or even two, three, four, or more losses — and still have a chance to accomplish everything they set out to accomplish at the beginning of this season. I'm thankful that 65 teams play for the sport's national championship as opposed to just two. I'm thankful that we get to witness non-stop, in-your-face, gut-wrenching action almost every single day from now until the first weekend in April rather than just on Saturdays.

I'm thankful for preseason tournaments such as the Maui Invitational and the Preseason NIT, and other competitions such as the ACC-Big 10 Challenge so that we see real, true games at the start of the season rather than having to sit around in front of the TV bagging matchups like Michigan vs. Appalachian State (oh, wait...).

I'm thankful for games that aren't supposed to be great games that turn up shocking results, such as Grand Valley State over Michigan State, Gardner-Webb over Kentucky, and Mercer over USC. I'm thankful for the even bigger upsets on the even bigger stages that have not happened yet but will inevitably take place in March.

I'm thankful the season ends with something so big, so massive, so monumental that people are already thinking about it, talking about it, projecting it, and lobbying for it despite the fact that it is still four months away.

I'm thankful for the NBA age limit rule so that we can see guys like Kansas State's Michael Beasley, Indiana's Eric Gordon, and USC's O.J. Mayo rule the college basketball world rather than see them in the NBA making a lot more for doing a lot less.

I'm thankful for current guys like Michigan State's Drew Neitzel, North Carolina's Quentin Thomas, Tennessee's Christ Lofton, and Ohio State's Jamar Butler, and guys of old like Northwestern's Evan Eschmeyer and Maryland's Nik Caner-Medley, all of whom give hope to students across the nation that it really is possible to stay in college forever.

I'm thankful for both the misfortune and fortune of Bobby Knight's Texas Tech Red Raiders. I'm thankful for the misfortune of losing Jarrius Jackson to graduation, because it should make for a few extra losses and therefore a few more press-room blowups. I'm thankful for the fortune of having one of the best recruiting classes Lubbock, Texas has ever seen, so that when the freshmen aren't flawless right from the start Knight will spew forth more locker room tirades that are somehow recorded and put on YouTube.

I'm even thankful for reality checks — such as the ones each of the two teams I root for already got: Georgia Tech at home against UNC-Greensboro and No. 25 Davidson on the road at Western Michigan — that remind you a Top 25 ranking must be earned and kept and will not simply be handed to you in a gift-wrapped package and placed under a tree for you to open unconditionally. I'm thankful for losses that wake you up and motivate you to do better next time rather than crush your dreams of having a one-for-the-ages season.

I'm even thankful for Duke University, simply for celebrating their Maui Invitational win like it was the national championship, showing that even the Blue Devils know it's the only tournament they'll be winning this season. I'm thankful that not only do I have teams on whose success my personal well-being depends, but I also have a team on whose demise my well-being depends.

I'm thankful for the last two weeks. And the next four months.

Thank you, college basketball.

Posted by Ricky Dimon at 11:07 AM | Comments (1)

November 27, 2007

In the Box: NFL Week 12

Sean Taylor is dead.

The Redskins safety, shot in his Miami home at around 1:30 a.m. Monday, was pronounced dead a little more than 24 hours later. He had been shot in the leg during what police say may have been a robbery. His femoral artery was damaged. He lost too much blood and never recovered. He was 24.

A young man, a professional football player, was shot and killed. It's a brutal shock to the system, and not something from which you can recover quickly. Here in St. Louis, it’s happened with Darryl Kile and Josh Hancock. In Denver, it was Darrent Williams and Damien Nash. Toronto pitcher Joe Kennedy died suddenly this past Friday. And now it’s Sean Taylor.

There’s no eloquence there. Just sadness and a grim realization that no matter how much pain you’re in, the world stops for no one. Today, the Redskins mourn. In five days, they play the Bills. Grief does not freeze time, no matter how long the sleepless nights take.

---

The current playoff picture:

AFC:
1. New England (11-0; AFC East)
2. Indianapolis (9-2; AFC South)
3. Pittsburgh (8-3; AFC North)
4. San Diego (6-5; AFC West)
5. Jacksonville (8-3)
6. Cleveland (7-4; Officially in business)
7. Tennessee (6-5; Going out of business if they play like that again)
8. Denver (5-6; Horrible, horrible loss to Chicago; Better conference record than the Bills)
9. Buffalo (5-6; Better conference record than the Texans)
10. Houston (5-6)

NFC:
1. Dallas (10-1; NFC East; Huge game again Green Bay on Thursday, with the winner likely getting home field in the NFC Championship Game; Right now, the Cowboys get the edge due to a better conference record at 7-0 vs. 7-1 for the Packers)
2. Green Bay (10-1; NFC North)
3. Seattle (7-4; NFC West; Won head-to-head over Tampa Bay in Week 1)
4. Tampa Bay (7-4; NFC South)
5. NY Giants (7-4; Uh-oh)
6. Detroit (6-5; Sell! Sell! Sell!)
7. New Orleans (5-6; 4-3 conference record is better than any of the other 5-6 teams)
8. Arizona (5-6; Better strength of victory than Minnesota and Washington)
9. Washington (5-6; Better won-lost-tied percentage in common games than Minnesota)
10. Philadelphia (5-6; Based on head-to-head win over Minnesota)

On the board: New Orleans
Off the board: Carolina

* When breaking ties for playoff position, you have to first break ties within each division. The loser of those intra-division tie-breakers are then ineligible for further tie-breakers until all teams ahead of them within their division are seeded.

For example, Washington has the tie-breaker over Philadelphia based on strength of schedule (the sixth criteria after head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record and strength of victory), so the Redskins are then matched up against Arizona and Minnesota (who knocks out division-rival Chicago based on their head-to-head win), while Philly (and Chicago) are pushed to the back. It’s only once Washington comes off the board (thanks to a better percentage in common games with the Vikings) that the Eagles come back into play (and grab the tenth spot based off their head-to-head win over Minnesota).

Current top 5 picks in the draft:

1. Miami (0-11)
2. St. Louis (2-9; .521 strength of schedule)
3. NY Jets (2-9; .529 strength of schedule)
4. Oakland (3-8; .438 strength of schedule)
5. San Francisco (3-8; .454 strength of schedule; Pick owned by New England)

Tie Breaker Procedures

And now the rest of the week that was:

Tampa Bay 19, Washington 13: As you can see above, the Redskins are very much in the playoff hunt. The two teams currently in NFC Wild Card position, the Giants and Lions, are bordering on free-fall status. As one of six NFC teams at 5-6, Washington has as good a shot at making it as anybody. The schedule is manageable (Buffalo, Chicago, at the Giants, at Minnesota, Dallas). They have the offense to get it done, and their defense is still above average (ninth overall), even without Taylor. How they’ll react to the emotion of the situation is anybody’s guess, but the opportunity is there.

As for Tampa, they had another horrible day of offense that resulted in a win. Washington converted on 9 of 17 third-down attempts, the Bucs one of 12. Washington had 412 yards of offense, the Bucs 192. Washington controlled the clock for 35 minutes and Tampa was forced to kick four field goals.

The Bucs got the W and the Skins the L.

(How, you ask? Washington turned the ball over six times, the first four within their own 30, leading to the Bucs’ first 16 points, the final two within the Bucs’ 30, killing the comeback.)

(That’ll do it.)

Fantasy Impact: Jason Campbell has become a legit NFL starting quarterback. Keep that note in your head for your draft next August.

New England 31, Philadelphia 28: With all the well-deserved respect Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaches get, and all the garbage heaped on Andy Reid, it needs to be said: They Pats coaching staff got all they could handle from the Eagles staff on Sunday night. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson had Tom Brady uncomfortable all night. And, even more impressive, Marty Mornhinweg’s Jay Feeley-led offense carved up the vaunted Pats defense for 391 yards. Nobody’s moved like that on the Pats since the Colts in the second half last January.

The players get the glory, but that coaching staff, from Reid on down, earned their paychecks this week.

(And the sad part is the Pats put up 31 of their own and won the game to stay undefeated while the Eagles are in a five-week free-for-all for the Wild Card.)

Fantasy Impact: The stat sheet says it was all Wes Welker, no Randy Moss. But Moss had a chance to break a big one down the right sideline, and it went through his hands. Donte Stallworth also had a big drop on what John Madden called a “smoke screen.” (I don’t know if that’s what it was called or he misspoke or it was a bad pun or I just heard him wrong.) In any event, Madden says it would have gone for a touchdown but they didn’t show a replay.

Oakland 20, Kansas City 17: Fourth and one, down three on the Oakland 23, 4:27 left. Herm Edwards goes for it. Kolby Smith, having an otherwise fantastic day, gets dropped short. Turnover on downs. Never get the ball back. 4-7 and puff go the Chiefs’ playoff dreams.

Why?

Perhaps it was because Smith was on fire, with 151 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Perhaps it’s because of the three previous times he had run the ball on third or fourth and one, Smith got the first twice. Perhaps it’s because Edwards didn’t trust Dave Rayner after Rayner missed a 33-yarder in the previous possession (which, if that’s the case, Rayner needs to hit the street this week). Or perhaps it’s because after Rayner missed the previous kick, it only took the Raiders three plays to go 77 yards for the go-ahead TD.

Those are all good reasons, even more so when combined together. But that doesn’t change the fact YOU KICK THE FREAKING BALL, DAMN IT!

(Jeeeeez.)

Fantasy Impact: How the hell do you only connect with Tony Gonzalez three times in a game you lose by a FG at home?

Dallas 34, NY Jets 3: The only thing that needs to be said for the Jets is that they need to fire offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer as soon as possible. That offense is just slop. With a new offensive scheme and a top-five pick (I’d go with Michigan OT Jake Long or Virginia DE Chris Long), the Jets could rise just as quickly next year as they dropped this season.

(Since I’m not one to criticize without offering suggestions, a couple of good OC candidates: Bengals QB coach Ken Zampese, who would be great for Kellen Clemens, or Saints QB coach Pete Carmichael Jr., who, though young at 36, has a reputation as having a quick mind and great feel for the game – in other words, an offensive version of Eric Mangini. The Jets should NOT, under any circumstances, hire re-treads Chan Gailey, fired by Georgia Tech, or Bill Callahan, fired by Nebraska.)

As for Dallas, check out the NFL Network on Thursday night. Their game against Green Bay will tell us everything we need to know.

Fantasy Impact: Since the Jets’ defense couldn’t stop anything, their final five: at Miami (I’m calling it right now – Fins win), Cleveland, at New England, at Tennessee, Kansas City. Pray you don’t face whoever in your league has Tom Brady in Week 15.

Green Bay 37, Detroit 26: Even as a Pats fan, I would not object to Brett Favre and Brady being co-MVP’s. Having followed Brady his entire pro career, I bet that would actually mean more to him than winning the award outright.

Fantasy Impact: Favre’s year to date: 291 of 425 (68.5%) for 3356 yards, 22 TD and 8 INT. He hasn’t completed less than 70 percent of his passes since Week 6. I don’t care what you have to do – find a place to watch Packers-Cowboys on Thursday. Make up a business trip and fly somewhere if you have to. This could be the prelude to an all-time classic if the two teams meet again with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. If you love the NFL, you simply have to watch this game.

Indianapolis 31, Atlanta 13: Warrick Dunn is not washed up. And I don’t mean to bag on a guy who’s been nothing but a great ambassador for the sport. But why the hell aren’t the Falcons running Jerious Norwood more? He had six carries in this one (for 33 yards). He caught one pass (for nine). And he had six kick returns for an average of 26.3 (with a long of 37). At this pace he won’t even crack 100 rushing attempts on the year.

For a team so badly in need of a spark, there’s no excuse for not riding the most explosive player on that offense.

Fantasy Impact: Anthony Gonzalez broke the 100-yard barrier for the first time. If Marvin Harrison isn’t himself or gets re-injured, Gonzalez could be starting opposite Reggie Wayne against Oakland and Houston in Weeks 15 and 16, respectively.

Seattle 24, St. Louis 19: Take heart, St. Louisans, this Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game between Missouri and Oklahoma could be the best college sports moment involving a team from Missouri ever (I don’t like the match-up against West Virginia). I’m rooting for the Tigers if only so I can watch the title game in a bar packed full of delirious locals. Whether they win or lose, it’s great to have a front-row seat to championship theatre.

(I went to Arizona, so I don’t really care one way or the other. We got our title when we beat Oregon. Now we just need to take out ASU on Saturday and ruin their Rose Bowl plans – as long as USC takes care of business against UCLA - and the football season will have been a success. And now that Lute Olson is back at practice, everything should be fine, although they might get killed by Texas A&M this Sunday.)

Also, Seattle was a stupid Gus Frerotte fumbled snap from losing another road game.

Fantasy Impact: Say you’ve watched D.J. Hackett tear it up the past two weeks on your bench (17 catches for 237 yards and 2 TD). And say you’ve watched Chad Johnson not tear it up in your starting line-up all season (no TD since Week 2). And say you figure Hackett looks like a better match-up against the Rams than Johnson does against the Titans. And say you make the switch. And say you want to bash yourself in the face with a brick every time they show another Johnson touchdown (12 catches for 103 yards and 3 scores) while Hackett gets hurt and does nothing (4 catches for 41 yards). And say you lose by six and cost yourself a playoff spot in a league for which you’re the commissioner and only one who writes weekly NFL columns.

That would really, really suck.

In a related note, my team name next year will be “Stupid (rhymes with tucking) Idiot.”

Cincinnati 35, Tennessee 6: Albert Haynesworth can’t be that good, is he?

Fantasy Impact: Don’t ever, ever sit 85. Ever. I don’t care if he’s on Injured Reserve. Start him anyway.

San Diego 32, Baltimore 14: The Ravens woke up Monday with the realization even a five-game sweep of New England, Indianapolis, Miami (road), Seattle (road) and Pittsburgh probably doesn’t get them in the playoffs. And there is no way in hell they win all five of those games. It’s only a matter of weeks before Ray Lewis calls out everybody in the media, then stops doing interviews all together.

Fantasy Impact: Hey, if Jay Feeley can light up the Pats, who’s to say Kyle Boller can’t?

Minnesota 41, NY Giants 17: I was watching Meet The Press this Sunday, and one of the guests said (paraphrasing) that one of the most dangerous things a Presidential candidate can do is play into an existing narrative. In other words, if you have a reputation as having a short fuse, the last thing you want to do is get caught being mad on camera. If people already question your mental competency, it’s a bad idea to miss-spell potato (the example cited by the guest).

And it didn’t occur to me until two days later, but that’s the best description of the State of Eli Manning. Way back in the pre-season, every overthrown pass, every ball batted down at the line of scrimmage, was met with a resounding groan from Giants fans. “Here we go again.” And now Manning has come through with his first official meltdown of 2007, potentially triggering the annual collapse resulting in an embarrassing playoff loss and firing of Tom Coughlin. And because everybody expected it all along, it goes beyond being just one bad performance. It’s who he is.

Fantasy Impact: I was trying to think of a comparable situation to the consistent second-guessing of Manning. The best I could think of is trying to make a pornographic film for the first time, except instead of people just watching and filming, which I imagine would be extremely unnerving in itself, they’re also trying to beat you with baseball bats.

(Was that weird? I’m sorry.)

New Orleans 31, Carolina 6: The injury to Jake Delhomme crippled Carolina, but that shouldn’t be used as an excuse for all that ails the Panthers. I have a feeling John Fox keeps his job because owner Jerry Richardson isn’t an over-reactor, but they’ll be doing themselves a great disservice if they chalk up their lost season to just injuries. This roster is not entirely well put together.

Fantasy Impact: Saints rushing totals:

Aaron Stecker: 13 carries for 42 yards
Pierre Thomas: 12 carries for 32 yards
Reggie Bush: 9 carries for 32 yards

I know he has a bruised shin and all, but this is nothing new from Bush. In 27 career games, he’s been held under 50 yards rushing 18 times.

Jacksonville 36, Buffalo 14: We knew the past two weeks were going to be hard on the Bills, and now they have the unenviable position of facing a Redskins team wracked by grief. Outside of the personal aspect, the reality of Bills-Skins is that this is a playoff elimination game. Win, and you’re still in the hunt. Lose, and the mountain becomes too high to climb.

Also, the Bills loss clinched the AFC East for the Pats. It was November 25.

Fantasy Impact: Maurice Jones-Drew had 10 rushes for 10 yards. He had a TD to bolster his points, but that’s still a mighty weak line against a defense playing a ton of second- and third-stringers.

Cleveland 37, Houston 27: Three notes:

1. It didn’t get noticed by the officiating crew (or the announcers), but Matt Schaub’s first interception (second and nine at the Cleveland 36 with the Texans already up 7-0) was a direct result of pass interference by a Cleveland defender (didn’t get the number, think it was Andra Davis), who hit TE Joel Dreessen a good second early, forcing the ball to carom off his back shoulder for the pick by D'Qwell Jackson. That was a huge turning point in the game.

2. Browns undrafted rookie CB Brandon McDonald played a great game (four passes defended, one interception). He was all over the place. It was like Leigh Bodden put on a 22 jersey and they had two of them out there. I’m not sure who got game balls in the victorious locker room, but I hope McDonald got one of them.

3. The Browns are going to make the playoffs.

Fantasy Impact: As many bad jokes as I made about Kellen Winslow after the whole soldiers thing (and then the motorcycle thing), I have to admit he’s one of my favorite players in the NFL. Dude is fearless. His 10-catch, 107-yard, 1-TD performance in this game was one of the best I’ve seen at the position all year.

San Francisco 37, Arizona 31: This game was so ridiculous (and entertaining to watch), it defies explanation. Just read the full play-by-play. It’s crazy.

Fantasy Impact: Love to see the Frank Gore revival (116 rush yards with 2 TD, 11 receptions for 98 yards). That was as good as he’s looked all year.

Chicago 37, Denver 34: Horrific loss for the Broncos.

Also, Devin Hester Devin Hester Devin Hester.

Fantasy Impact: With Cedric Benson out for the year, Adrian Peterson all of a sudden becomes a very available starting running back. His 17 rushes for 45 yards and a TD weren’t mind blowing, but he’s going to get a steady diet of action.

And taking a lesson from the Larry Johnson-Priest Holmes-Kolby Smith transition, Bears rookie RB Garrett Wolfe might be worth a look.

Pittsburgh 3, Miami 0: I’m not a huge Tony Korneheiser fan, because he gets annoying after a little while. (Too smug, like he’s better than the game he’s there to announce. Joe Buck does that on local Cardinals telecasts during the season. Drives me nuts.)

Anyway, Kornheiser had a great line on the Ricky Williams saga: “He’s been vilified beyond his villainy.” That was a good one.

Fantasy Impact: Jack Wilson’s three-run home run off Dontrelle Willis in the second proved to be the difference as Pirates pitcher Matt Morris threw his first complete game shut-out since 2004.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 12:17 PM | Comments (0)

Can LeBron Average a Triple-Double?

Averaging a triple-double is like owning every single property in a game of Monopoly — it's not fair for the other players. And it means you're really, really, really good.

Okay, so the analogy isn't perfect. But it's fair to say averaging a triple-double in the NBA is godly. It's only been done once before — Oscar Robertson averaged 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists in the 1961-62 season. In fact, most seasons, no one even get remotely close.

So when LeBron James was entering the NBA and analysts said he could average a triple-double, I thought they were crazy. Absolutely crazy. I thought it was just one of those things people said to emphasize how good a player really is — you know, like an exaggeration?

But how dare I question the great NBA analyst.

This season, at the age of 22, LeBron is averaging 31 points, 8, rebound and 8 assists a game. He's getting close.

Just to put this season into perspective, the closest Kobe Bryant got was 30, 7, and 6. The closest Tracy McGrady got was 26, 8, and 5. The closest Kevin Garnett got was 23, 14, and 6.

So will LeBron ever reach the coveted double digits in three statistical categories?

I say no. But only because the careers of the two players LeBron most resembles show a different trend.

Robertson and Magic Johnson were both big guards who filled up the stat box. Robertson achieved his triple-double season in his second season — he was very close in his first four seasons. After that, he began to score more and rack up more assists, but his rebounds went down.

Johnson averaged 18.6, 9.6, and 9.5 in his third season. He, too, began to rack up more assists while his rebounds dropped after that season.

LeBron is in his fifth season. He has a few more years under his belt at age 22 because he came straight out of high school. But history shows that players like LeBron get closer to triple-doubles while they are young. As they age, they become more of a playmaker.

But LeBron isn't the player closest to a triple-double this season. Quietly, Jason Kidd is averaging 11.4, 10.4, and 8.5. He's merely 1.5 rebounds away from a triple-double. And he's 34.

So does LeBron have the ability to average a triple-double? Yes.

But will he? It depends on what he wants to do — does he want to score more and go the Magic Johnson route, or stay in the paint and grab a few more rebounds?

For him to have this decision to make might be more impressive than actually averaging a triple-double.

Posted by Alvin Chang at 11:11 AM | Comments (1)

November 26, 2007

2007 College Basketball Preview

Most people like to do their season previews before the season actually starts. Not me. I like to see the first few weeks before I put fingers to keyboard with some analysis. It helps get a good sense of the reality on the ground, separate from the hype of the recruiting trail and offseason hope machine (if we can just stay healthy and catch a few breaks early...).

In any regard, it's already been a fantastic season. We've seen several of this year's most highly touted freshmen come in and light up the scoreboard. We've seen several upsets that a few years ago would have set the world on fire. Now they're just part of the normal landscape of college sports. And we're seeing a slight change in the power structure below the BCS plateau.

Five months to March. Here we go.

The Freshmen

If you don't already, you'll soon learn everything you need to know about the second crop of freshman loaded with impact players as a result of the NBA age limit. And, strange as it may seem, this year's group is actually better than last year's. A few of the highlights so far:

Kansas State F Michael Beasley: In six games, he has six double-doubles. In four of those, he's scored 30 or more (the other two were 28 against Western Illinois and the 13-point "debacle" against Rider). And in two of them, he had more than 20 rebounds. Yeah, I'd say he's legit.

Memphis PG Derrick Rose: More of a scorer than a passer at this point, averaging 16.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 2.8 apg. Combines with Chris Douglas-Roberts for the most explosive backcourt in the nation.

Indiana G Eric Gordon: Tied for fourth in the nation in scoring at 27 per, hitting an incredible 56 percent of his shots, 55 percent from three (16-of-29), and 85 percent from the free-throw line (39-of-46). This must be just killing Illinois coach Bruce Webber.

Syracuse G Jonny Flynn and F Donte Green: Combining for more than 31 points, 12 rebounds, and nearly 9 assists per game. Flynn has shown some inconsistency so far, but Green seems to be getting better each time out.

UCLA F Kevin Love: Averaging 19.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game for best team in the country. He's going to bully his way to being Pac-10 Freshman of the Year.

USC G O.J. Mayo: Averaging 21.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. The reason Love beats him for the award because he's on a better team (though USC's 70-45 beating of Southern Illinois was a much more impressive defensive performance than I thought them capable).

And there are so many more (feel free to point some out I may have excluded like Jeremy Price from Georgia or Biko Paris from Boston College). Almost every guy on this list is going to be a major contributor for a major program this season. In no particular order:

James Anderson (F, Oklahoma State, 19.2 ppg), Anthony Randolph (F, LSU, 15.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg), Patrick Patterson (PF, Kentucky, 15 ppg, 8 rpg), Kyle Singler (SF, Duke, 14.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Jerryd Bayless (PG, Arizona, 18.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 5.2 apg), Jai Lucas (PG, Florida, 9.3 ppg, 27.7 mpg), Nick Calathes (SF, Florida, 14 ppg, 5.3 apg), Kosta Koufos (C, Ohio State, 18.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg), DeAndre Jordan (C, Texas A&M, 10.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, made 29 of 34 field goal attempts); E'Twaun Moore (PG, Purdue, 13.0 ppg, 3.7 rpg), J.J. Hickson (PF, NC State, 18.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Austin Daye (SF, Gonzaga, 13.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.5 bpg), Manny Harris (SG, Michigan, 16.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg), DeJuan Blair (PF, Pittsburgh, 10.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg in only 17.8 mpg), P'Allen Stinnett (G, Creighton, 13.7 ppg, 3.3 apg, 2.3 spg), Blake Griffin (PF, Oklahoma, 15.0 ppg, 9.2 rpg), Maurice Miller (PG, Georgia Tech, 9.0 ppg, 3.5 apg before missing last three with a bad back), Rakim Sanders (SG, Boston College, 16.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg), James Harden (SG, Arizona State, 17.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Patrick Mills (G, St. Mary's, 15.8 ppg, 5.0 apg)

New Coaches

Just a quick reminder of some new faces in new places:

Minnesota: Tubby Smith (from Kentucky)
Kentucky: Billy Gillispie (from Texas A&M)
Texas A&M: Mark Turgeon (from Wichita State)
Wichita State: Gregg Marshall (from Winthrop)
Michigan: John Beilein (from West Virginia)
West Virginia: Bob Huggins (from Kansas State)
Kansas State: Frank Martin (Kansas State assistant)
New Mexico: Steve Alford (from Iowa)
Iowa: Todd Lickliter (from Butler)
Butler: Brad Stevens (Butler assistant; only 30-years-old)
Wake Forest: Dino Gaudio (Wake Forest assistant; took over for Skip Prosser after Prosser's death)
Colorado: Jeff Bzdelik (from Air Force)
Arkansas: John Pelphrey (from South Alabama)
St. Louis: Rick Majerus (from the buffet line at ESPN studios in Bristol)

Rating the Conferences

We saw it with George Mason's run to the Final Four. We saw it with Southern Illinois and Butler in the Sweet 16. We saw it with Michigan/Appalachian State in football. And we've seen it in spades early this college basketball season:

Anybody can beat anybody at any time.

When even the Atlantic Sun can pull off a trio of upsets like Belmont over Cincinnati, Mercer over USC, and Gardner-Webb over Kentucky, there's no logical reason to assume that one team will beat another solely based on conference affiliation.

But that doesn't mean there still isn't a difference between the conferences. There is. And you can expect the bids and seeding on Selection Sunday to reflect the traditional power structure.

BCS (bids to pretty much any team that finishes .500 in conference and doesn't have major black marks on their non-conference resume; a majority of one and two seeds will come from these six conferences): ACC, SEC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10

BCS Lights (the best teams can garner high seeds, which differentiates them from the true mid-majors): A-10, MVC

A Class of Their Own (one team with national title aspirations in a league of mid major competition): Conference USA, West Coast

True Mid-Majors (It'll take a 25-win season or better for an at-large; Great teams aren't guaranteed great seeds): Mountain West, WAC, MAC, Colonial, Horizon

The best of the rest (only one bid, but may be seeded as high as 12 depending on how many non-conference upsets they can score): Sun Belt, Patriot, Big South, Big Sky, Big West, Southern, A-Sun (this year)

The rest (somebody has to be seeded on the 15 and 16 lines): Ivy, Northeast, America East, NEC, MEAC, Metro Atlantic, OVC, Summit (formerly Mid-Con), SWAC

Eight from the Pac-10?

No.

But the Pacific-10 Conference is still the best in the country top to bottom. Last season, the Pac-10 placed six teams in the field. Of those who made it (USC, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona), every single team got better. Of the four who didn't (Washington, Arizona State, Oregon State, and Cal), every single team got better:

UCLA should be ranked in the top 10 all season on their way to a one or two seed.

There's no reason to expect a drop-off from Washington State, with virtually every body back from last year's breakout.

Oregon lost Aaron Brooks, but they still have most of the players on last year's Elite Eight team (Malik Hairston, Bryce Taylor, Maarty Leunen, and Tajuan Porter).

USC did lose their heart with Gabe Pruitt, Lodrick Stewart, and Nick Young, but they have O.J. Mayo (and Angelo Johnson) to go along with Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett, so everybody kind of believes in them right now, even with the early home loss to Mercer.

Washington lost Spencer Hawes, but gain a year of experience for everybody else (Jon Brockman, Justin Dentmon, and Quincy Pondexter, in particular). Nobody should be surprised to see Lorenzo Romar back in the NCAA tournament this year (they showed tough in the Preseason NIT Final Four, and will be a lot better once Ryan Appleby comes back — they needed his shooting badly).

Stanford lost nobody (except for Brook Lopez for the first semester because of academics), and Cal got lucky with the return of DeVon Hardin to pair with sophomore Ryan Anderson.

One of the big questions will be Arizona. They lost Mustafa Shakur, Marcus Williams, and Ivan Radenovic, but those first two could be considered addition by subtraction. With freshmen Jerryd Bayliss, Jamelle Horne, and Laval Lucas-Perry (the team looks a lot better with him at the one and Bayless at the two) joining Chase Budinger and Jawann McClellan, now another year removed from knee surgery, plus the emergence of sophomore center Jordan Hill, the Wildcats have a much more cohesive roster (better chemistry, hopefully better half-court defense). With that said, there are concerns with the interior depth, with Kirk Walters yet to reclaim the presence he had before injuries and illness wiped him out for last season (his start in the loss last night to Kansas was an encouraging sign). The Pac-10 is loaded with top inside talent, so the lack of depth here could be a major problem for Lute Olson when he returns (hopefully very, very, very, VERY soon).

I'll also make this guarantee: Arizona State will score some major upsets in year two of the Herb Sendek era. (Note: I wrote that before they beat LSU last Wednesday.)

As for Oregon State, I feel bad for Jay John. He's a real nice guy.

It won't be eight bids, but a conference-record seven is very much in the realm of possibility.

The State of the Big East

Already, the middle-to-bottom of the Big East has run into some trouble, as Cincinnati lost at home to Atlantic Sun champ Belmont (and then again to Bowling Green from the MAC), DePaul lost at Creighton in a big early non-conference win for the MVC, South Florida lost at home to Cleveland State, picked at only seventh in the preseason Horizon league poll, and Seton Hall needed overtime at home to put away Monmouth out of the Northeastern conference.

Still, with Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh in the top half of the conference, it would be shocking to see the Big East end up with any fewer than seven bids. (I'm not dumping Louisville because of David Padgett's injury, though it does hurt them considerably.)

Rise of the A-10; Turnover in the Valley

As you'll see below in the tournament field projections, I've got a feeling about the A-10. Xavier is the name on the national scene and the preseason conference pick to win behind point guard Drew Lavender, the Oklahoma transfer who nearly led the Muskateers to an upset win over eventual-runner up Ohio State. But the X-men, who just upset Indiana, are far from the only team with the players to make a postseason run.

Dayton has senior guard Brian Roberts (18.5 ppg) and dynamic freshman forward Chris Wright (22 points and 13 rebounds in his debut). Temple has sophomore guard Dionte Christmas and senior forward Mark Tyndale, the two leading scorers in the conference last year at 20 and 19.4 ppg, respectively. Rhode Island has Jimmy Baron (14.6 ppg with 48% from three last year) and Will Daniels (17.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg). St. Joe's has Pat Calathes (22 and 8 at Syracuse) and Ahmad Nivins (16.2 and 7.4 last year). And St. Louis has Rick Majerus, who is good for at least an extra three or four wins off straight coaching ability.

The story isn't so set in stone in the Missouri Valley, the best of the non-majors over the past few years. We've already seen the results of the massive turnover: Missouri State and Bradley have taken bad losses to Toledo (MAC) and Illinois/Chicago (Horizon), respectively. Drake missed a chance to beat one of the best teams from the WCC, losing to St. Mary's, and Evansville lost its home opener to Samford out of the Ohio Valley. Toledo's struggles since beating the Bears make that one even worse.

On the other side, Creighton's wins over DePaul and Nebraska will help the conference RPI and Northern Iowa got out to a 4-0 start before losing at South Dakota State (not good for the RPI). Missouri State has rebounded with wins over St. Louis (60-56) and Winthrop (73-69), and I'm still feeling big things coming from Normal, Illinois, home of the Illinois State Redbirds (though the losses to Indiana and Kent State have dulled some of the good vibes). It's fair to think the Valley can still land three teams on the bracket, but the middle of the league won't be as strong as the past few years (or it will be in the next few years.)

Sleeper Watch

Last year, we gave you Washington State. This year, it's Purdue.

I don't know how many people realize it yet, but Matt Painter is one of the best coaches in the nation. Not only that, he's a great recruiter, and you're going to start seeing his efforts pay off as he adds top talent like G E'Twaun Moore to a team built on intelligence and gritty defense. (They were so much tougher than Arizona in their NCAA tournament game last year, it was embarrassing to watch as an Arizona alum. And they gave eventual champ Florida more of a game than any other team they played in the tournament.)

Purdue isn't getting any preseason love (no votes in either poll), mainly because they lost fifth-year seniors Carl Landry (18.9 ppg) and David Teague (14.3 ppg). But with Moore and fellow freshmen Scott Martin (13.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg), JaJuan Johnson (10.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg), and Robbie Hummel (8.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg), the cupboard is far from bare. It's tough predicting great things for a team with four freshmen and a sophomore as its five leading scorers, but in a Big Ten that is far from stacked after the top four (Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin), Purdue could very well play into the Big Ten's fifth team in the field.

Other teams to watch out for: Rhode Island (early 6-1 start), Miami (an amazing 10 guys averaging double-digits in minutes through first five), Illinois State, Washington (so much better than they're getting credit for), and George Mason (beat Kansas State by 10 before falling to Villanova in the Old Spice Classic).

Forgetting Somebody?

I almost made it through the entire preview without mentioning Florida, only the two-time defending nation champion. Of course they lost the nucleus of that team to the NBA, but they didn't lose Billy Donovan, who set a record for the shortest turnaround between winning a college title, fleeing to the NBA for big money, realizing coaching in the NBA stinks, then fleeing back to college.

Donovan is going to have to rebuild with freshmen Nick Calathes, Jai Lucas, Chandler Parsons, and Adam Allen. They may not be the next “Oh Fours,” but they have the potential to cut down the nets if they stick around like their predecessors. They're not going to three-peat, but they are most definitely going back to the Dance.

(And if any of them knew who James Bond was, they could legitimately call themselves the “Double-Oh Sevens.” License to kill, baby!)

The Field

There's obviously a lot of ball to be played, but you can't have a preview/predictions column without taking a shot at the field. So here it is. (I did beat Joe Lunardi last year.)

Big East (8): Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Villanova
Pac-10 (6*): UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, USC, Washington
ACC (6): North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia, NC State, Clemson
SEC (5): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Big Ten (5): Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
A-10 (3): Xavier, Rhode Island, St. Joseph's
MVC (3): Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa**, Illinois State (I'm sticking with the boys from Normal)
WCC (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's (Admission: I didn't have them in until they beat Oregon)
America East (1): Albany
A-Sun (1): Belmont
Big Sky (1): Montana (Watch out for the Grizz in the first round — could be a 12/5er)
Big South (1): High Point
Big West (1): Call State Fullerton
Colonial (1): George Mason (Gave VCU's spot to St. Mary's)
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Yale
Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan
MAC (1): Miami (Ohio)
MEAC (1): Hampton
Mountain West (1): Utah
Northeast (1): Robert Morris
Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay
Patriot (1): Bucknell
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Sam Houston State
SWAC (1): Mississippi Valley State
Summit (1; formerly the Mid-Con): Oakland
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WAC (1): Nevada

* I wanted to give the Pac-10 seven bids, but I couldn't take it away from anybody else. If I wasn't such a homer, I might have picked Arizona out. I'm worried about them, though they did show well at KU. But there's no way I'm predicting the end of The Streak, so the Cardinal go NIT. Sorry. I guess your trust funds are going to have to be enough.

** I'm putting in Northern Iowa over original pick Bradley because the Braves lost at home to Illinois-Chicago, a bad omen on their ability to handle a non-conference schedule that includes Michigan State (home; 12/4), Wright State (road; 12/11), Butler (road; 12/19), and VCU (home; 12/22). (They already missed a big chance to pump up their resume by losing to Vanderbilt.) If they don't beat either Wright State or Butler on the road, they'll be 0-3 against the Horizon. That's no way to get an at-large (and I don't think they can beat Creighton or SIU at Arch Madness).

(CORRECTION: The Bradley-UIC game was in Chicago as pointed out by Jim below. Thanks Jim. And though I'm a big Jim Les fan, I still think what will probably be a 1-2 record against the Horizon - assuming they don't shock Butler - will be fatal come Selection Sunday.)

Top Five Double-Digit Seeds to Fear

Montana, Davidson, Bucknell, Western Kentucky, Utah

Final Four

Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA, Indiana (mostly because I would really love to see a Derrick Rose/Eric Gordon matchup in San Antonio).

Champion: Memphis

They've got everything you need:

A true banger/intimidator down low with Joey Dorsey.

A point guard who can penetrate almost any defense in Rose (a bigger, tougher version of Mike Conley).

A legit threat to put up 30 any night against anybody in Chris Douglas-Roberts .

A coach with a history of excellence who hasn't gotten over the hump in John Calipari.

Experience with two straight Elite Eight runs.

A ton of role players on the inside (Robert Dozier, Shawn Taggart) and outside (Willie Kemp, Antonio Anderson).

Great chemistry.

I like I lot of things about a lot of teams, but nobody has it all put together like the Tigers.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:50 AM | Comments (1)

Sports Central Pro Bowl Selections

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played more than half of its schedule, so it's finally reasonable to vote for each conference's representatives. Here's a look at my ballot, with AFC players listed first. I didn't vote for anyone who has been placed on injured reserve.

Quarterback

Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (IND), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT); Tony Romo (DAL), Brett Favre (GB), Jeff Garcia (TB)

Despite how well they've played, Manning and Big Ben were not locks for my AFC ballot. It hurt to leave out Derek Anderson (CLE), and especially David Garrard (JAC), who would have been an easy choice if he hadn't missed several games with an injury. Garrard still has yet to throw an interception this season, and he plays with a very unexciting receiving corps. In the NFC, I would have loved to find a spot for Jon Kitna (DET), a good passer and a terrific leader, but I couldn't fit him in ahead of the three I voted for.

Running Back

Joseph Addai (IND), LaDainian Tomlinson (SD), Willie Parker (PIT); Adrian Peterson (MIN), Brian Westbrook (PHI), Marion Barber (DAL)

Tomlinson may seem like a questionable pick in a "down" year, but he leads all AFC running backs in touchdowns and yards from scrimmage (and, as long as we're at it, passer rating). The real question here was whether or not to take Parker over Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC), who is a better receiver, a great returner, and has significant leads over Parker in both touchdowns and rushing average. I stuck with Parker because of his huge edge in rushing yards and how good he's looked when I've seen the Steelers this year. I would also be remiss not to mention that I have been very impressed with rookie RB Marshawn Lynch (BUF). Peterson and Westbrook were slam dunks in the NFC, but I agonized about taking Barber over Clinton Portis (WAS). I'm impressed with what Reggie Bush (NO) has done in Deuce McAllister's absence, but he's not quite Pro Bowl caliber yet.

Wide Receiver

Randy Moss (NE), Reggie Wayne (IND), Wes Welker (NE), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (CIN); Terrell Owens (DAL), Torry Holt (STL), Roy Williams (DET), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

Wide receiver is always the hardest position to narrow down, and this year was no exception. In the AFC, I initially planned to vote for Braylon Edwards (CLE), then switched to Derrick Mason (BAL) before finally deciding on Houshmandzadeh. I also really like Brandon Marshall (DEN), but he's seventh on my AFC list right now. The final position in the NFC was almost as hard. For the sake of brevity, I'll just list the others I considered in alphabetical order: Marques Colston (NO), Bobby Engram (SEA), Antwaan Randle El (WAS), and Steve Smith (CAR). Colston, who is among the NFC's top 10 in all three major receiving categories, was probably closest.

Fullback

Greg Jones (JAC); Mike Sellers (WAS)

Jones was an effective runner in 2005, but now he's developed into a solid fullback as the lead blocker for Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew. Sellers, for his part, has always been a beast as a blocker, and this year he's also making his mark as a runner and receiver out of the backfield. He's a great lead blocker, no one wants to tackle him, and he was an easy choice for my Pro Bowl ballot.

Tight End

Antonio Gates (SD), Kellen Winslow, Jr. (CLE); Jason Witten (DAL), Chris Cooley (WAS)

The AFC is full of good candidates, and you can't go wrong with Tony Gonzalez (KC). Earlier in the season, I expected to pick Dallas Clark (IND), but after his injury, it just wasn't going to happen in the competitive AFC. Winslow and Gates lead the conference in receiving yards, and Gonzalez leads the AFC in receptions. This is the sixth year I've selected a Pro Bowl team for Sports Central, and it's the first time Gonzalez has missed my ballot. Fortunately, the NFC was a very easy call, with only Jeremy Shockey (NYG) even close to displacing the guys I chose. Cooley's skill as a receiver is well-established, but he's also become a fine blocker. When Washington played Philadelphia in Week 10, I saw him handle DE Trent Cole by himself on multiple occasions. There are other tight ends who can take on a Pro Bowl defensive lineman one-on-one, but none of them are weapons in the receiving game.

That wraps up the so-called "skill positions," but I want to make one quick point before we get to the offensive line. I'm fairly good at judging line play, but having watched a limited number of games, I'm reduced to some guesswork at these positions. Other guys get highlights and statistics to help you choose, but not the offensive linemen. I'll be much more confident in the offensive line selections for my all-pro team at the end of the season, when I've had more chances to see these guys. That disclaimer aside, here are my picks:

Offensive Tackle

Matt Light (NE), Nick Kaczur (NE), Ryan Diem (IND); Flozell Adams (DAL), Levi Brown (ARI), Jon Stinchcomb (NO)

There should be no discussion necessary on my AFC choices, but the NFC was very tight. Some of the guys I'll be keeping an eye on as the season continues include: Chad Clifton (GB), David Diehl (NYG), Walter Jones (SEA), Bryant McKinnie (MIN), Jon Runyan (PHI), Chris Samuels (WAS), and Mark Tauscher (GB). I know that's a long list, but I've only had one or two looks at most of these guys right now. I'll narrow it down pretty quickly as the season continues, but I'm open to input from those of you who've seen these guys all season.

Offensive Guard

Logan Mankins (NE), Ryan Lilja (IND), Jake Scott (IND); Shawn Andrews (PHI), Steve Hutchinson (MIN), Chris Snee (NYG)

Mankins, whom I nearly chose as my Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2005 — I chickened out and went with Cadillac Williams — is the best. Lilja and Scott are great, too, but I also like Alan Faneca (PIT), Mike Goff (SD), and Eric Steinbach (CLE). In the NFC, I've been impressed with Leonard Davis (DAL), Pete Kendall (WAS), and especially Kyle Kosier (DAL).

Center

Jeff Saturday (IND), Dan Koppen (NE); Shaun O'Hara (NYG), Chris Spencer (SEA)

A cynic might dismiss my taking only Patriots and Colts for my AFC linemen as gimmicky, but I challenge any cynics out there to tell me who's been better than these guys. Only the Indianapolis guards, I think, are even close calls. Cynics should also note that I voted for Light, Diem, Mankins, Saturday, and Koppen last year, as well. This isn't a gimmick. New England and Indianapolis have by far the best offensive lines in the NFL.

Defensive End

Jared Allen (KC), Elvis Dumervil (DEN), Kyle Vanden Bosch (TEN); Osi Umenyiora (NYG), Aaron Kampman (GB), Andre Carter (WAS)

Allen is a very serious candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Dumervil is second in the AFC in sacks — 1.5 behind Allen but two ahead of anyone else — with four passes deflected, an interception, three forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. If you really want a 3-4 DE on your ballot, I like Brett Keisel (PIT). Michael Strahan (NYG), as always, was in the NFC mix, but I wanted to vote for Carter, who has been terrific for Washington.

Defensive Tackle

Albert Haynesworth (TEN), Vince Wilfork (NE), Casey Hampton (PIT); Darnell Dockett (ARI), Jovan Haye (TB), Tommie Harris (CHI)

Look, I don't like picking someone who stomped on a guy's head any more than you do, but Haynesworth has been out of sight this season. Hampton edged John Henderson (JAC) for the last spot in the conference. Dockett has become a huge difference-maker in Arizona, with 31 solo tackles and eight sacks so far. Haye, a first-year starter from Jamaica, has become a force on the line. In Tampa's 13-10 win over the Titans, Haye had 10 tackles (7 solo) and a sack. Harris, who has seven sacks, edged Chuck Darby (SEA), Fred Robbins (NYG), Shaun Rogers (DET), and Pat Williams (MIN) for the final spot.

Outside Linebacker

Mike Vrabel (NE), James Harrison (PIT), Thomas Howard (OAK); DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Julian Peterson (SEA), Ernie Sims (DET)

At long last, the NFL has seen the light and allows us to vote for three OLBs instead of just two. Vrabel didn't play much against the Bills on Sunday night, but he was a monster — unstoppable — against Washington, with 11 solo tackles and three sacks, and in the opener over the Jets, when he tallied five solos and 2.5 sacks. There's a lot of competition at this position, with others in the mix including Keith Bulluck (TEN), Rosevelt Colvin (NE), Donnie Edwards (KC), Derrick Johnson (KC), and Shawne Merriman (SD). In the NFC, I took two sack mavens, Ware (9 sacks, 63 tackles) and Peterson (8 sacks, 43 solo tackles, 4 forced fumbles, and an interception), plus Sims, a space player who does it all (team-leading 91 tackles, two forced fumbles, plus a sack and an interception), edging out Lance Briggs (CHI), Karlos Dansby (ARI), and A.J. Hawk (GB).

Inside Linebacker

Kirk Morrison (OAK), James Farrior (PIT); London Fletcher (WAS), Barrett Ruud (TB)

First of all, I want you to understand how desperately I wanted to take three NFC middle linebackers. Antonio Pierce (NYG) had gotten my vote three times in a row, and frankly, he's still deserving. But so are Fletcher and Ruud, and after some hand-wringing, Pierce was the one I left out. Rookie Patrick Willis (SF) leads the conference in tackles, but I haven't gotten a good look at him yet. In the AFC, Morrison has been an absolute monster on pass defense (three interceptions, 11 deflections), and I had Mike Peterson (JAC) penciled in for the other spot, but now he's out with an injury that might keep him off the field until next year. Stepping into the void was Farrior, by a hair over DeMeco Ryans (HOU).

Cornerback

Asante Samuel (NE), Rashean Mathis (JAC), Marlin Jackson (IND); Ken Lucas (CAR), Lito Sheppard (PHI), Ronde Barber (TB)

Please note my unhappiness that Antonio Cromartie (SD) is not on the ballot. I realize that he's only started one game, but he leads the NFL in interceptions (6), he's tied for the league lead in deflections (18), he leads all defensive players in scoring (three TDs), and he set a league record that can never be broken (109-yard return of a missed field goal against Minnesota). The guy deserves a trip to Hawaii. I pick Barber every year (yes, six times in a row now) and I hate myself for it, but Tampa easily leads the NFC in pass defense, and Barber is a major reason for that. Anthony Henry (DAL) leads the conference in picks and deflections, but that's partly because he gets picked on across from Terence Newman, and I've voted for him too many times (2004, '05, '06) anyway.

Strong Safety

Bob Sanders (IND); Adrian Wilson (ARI)

Troy Polamalu (PIT), when he's 100%, is a one-man wrecking crew on defense. But he's been battling injuries this season, and Sanders has been doing some wrecking himself. The NFC is full of unappealing candidates, and Wilson is the only one I'm half-excited about.

Free Safety

Ed Reed (BAL); Gibril Wilson (NYG)

I hate everyone in the NFC, and I desperately wish that Brian Dawkins (PHI) was healthy, because he's still the best, and the Eagles are a totally different team when he's on the field. Sean Taylor (WAS) might have been a possibility, but he's still inconsistent and right now he's hurt. That left me with Wilson, who's not terrible — I voted for him last year as a strong safety — but not really what I hope for in a Pro Bowler. I hate everyone in the AFC, too. Reed is the best of a weak crop, but he's not the same player he was in 2004, when I (and most other people) chose him as Defensive Player of the Year. Antoine Bethea (IND) is okay, too, and I almost took him over Reed.

Kicker

Kris Brown (HOU); Nick Folk (DAL)

I'm happy with my choice of Brown over Rob Bironas (TEN). Brown has missed only two field goals this season, one of which was blocked. He leads the NFL in field goals of 50 yards or more — Brown is 4-for-4 — including the longest field goal of the season, 57 yards. The NFC was a little tighter, but I ultimately decided on rookie Nick Folk, who leads the NFC in scoring and made a last-second 53-yarder to beat the Bills on MNF — over veteran Josh Brown (SEA).

Punter

Mike Scifres (SD); Andy Lee (SF)

This may sound kind of dumb, and in fact, it probably is kind of dumb, but I spent more time picking punters than any other position. I agonized about Lee, who leads the NFC in net punting average, over Brad Maynard (CHI), who has been much better about pinning opponents deep and preventing returns, but trails Lee in net average by about 5.5 yards. Too much ground to make up. The AFC race was even harder, with Shane Lechler (OAK), Brian Moorman (BUF), and Matt Turk (HOU) also in the mix. I eventually took the easy way out, going with Scifres because I've never voted for him before, even though he's been terrific in each of the last three seasons.

Kick Returner

Josh Cribbs (CLE); Devin Hester (CHI)

I'm not going to be the idiot that doesn't pick Hester in the NFC, but I would like to point out that as dangerous as Hester is, he actually ranks 20th in the NFL in kickoff return average. Where Hester has made his mark is on punt returns, with two TDs and an NFC-best 15.9 average. But please note the resurgence of Dante Hall (STL), whose averages (24.3 on kickoffs, 13.8 on punts) are comparable to Hester's (23.8, 15.9). Hester is the best, yes. But not by as wide a margin as it sometimes seems. The AFC field is full of great returners I didn't have room for, most notably Darren Sproles (SD) and Leon Washington (NYJ).

Special Teamer

I never vote at this position — not enough information — but some of the guys I like are Larry Izzo (NE), Quintin Mikell (PHI), and Kassim Osgood (SD). It always annoys me that James Thrash (WAS), who's terrific, is never even on the ballot. Matt Giordano (IND) and Cribbs, whom I chose as a returner, would also be good choices if they were on the list.

The teams I voted for most this season were the Patriots (10), Colts (9), and Cowboys (7). Last season, my leading teams were the Chargers (8) and Bears (8).

My own, admitted snub is the 9-1 Green Bay Packers (2). To be fair, the players I did select are standouts. Favre plays the game's most important position, and Kampman, who made my all-pro team last season, has a good chance to make it again this year. The Packers also had some close calls — both offensive tackles were very close, as was A.J. Hawk. Green Bay also has a number of players who are well above average, but not quite at Pro Bowl level: WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, LB Nick Barnett and DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson, and kicker Mason Crosby.

Last year's biggest snub was probably the Seahawks, who had a 6-4 record when I voted and advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs, but had no one on my Pro Bowl ballot. This year, I think only two Packers is the worst, but I also feel pretty bad about not getting anyone from Buffalo on my ballot. Lynch and Moorman were the closest, but I do like DE Aaron Schobel, LB Angelo Crowell, SS Donte Whitner, and KR Terrence McGee. Please note, also, that I do not hate the Jaguars. David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew were extremely close to making the cut, John Henderson was close, and Mike Peterson would have been in if not for his current injury.

As one final note, I've selected a Pro Bowl team for SC every year since the 2002 season, and in that period there are five players for whom I've voted at least five times each: Ronde Barber, Tony Gonzalez, Torry Holt, Peyton Manning, and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — Randy Moss (NE)
Defensive Player of the Year — Jared Allen (KC)
MVP — Tom Brady (NE)
Coach of the Year — Bill Belichick (NE)
Assistant — Jason Garrett (DAL)
Rookie of the Year — Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:00 AM | Comments (1)

November 23, 2007

Bordering Greatness

I've been hearing about it all week. This is the game of the year in the Midwest, and possibly of the college football season. Kansas vs. Missouri has had its share of big moments on the basketball court, however, the same can't be said when it comes to the football field.

I know all about this first-hand, being born and raised in the center of the venom (and this week's contest), Kansas City. By now, you've probably heard all about the rivalry. The intensity. The fact it's the oldest west of the Mississippi. How it dates back to the actual Civil War. The literal bloodshed might have become less bitter, but the pride has always stuck around.

K.C. is a bit unique in that it's a major city divided into two states. Sure, New York can also have that claim, but the feeling seems to be different. Kansas City is pretty much dissected half-and-half by a couple items as quaint as a street and the Missouri River. Even more simplistic, the street is obviously called State Line Road.

This thoroughfare that people pass on and across everyday shows the signs of how close-knit the Border War is. While there is a small bit of intermixing close to the boundary, it doesn't take long to be swept up in a sea of blue and red flags to the west or black and gold banners to the east.

Growing up on the east side of the division, my pride went the way of the Tigers, hoping that teams that limped around with three-win records and suffered agonizing defeats to bizarre moments like the "Fifth Down" (1990 vs. Colorado) and the "Fleakicker" (1997 vs. Nebraska) could someday turn their fortunes around.

Going to high school on said State Line Road, the mix of Mizzou-rah and Rock Chalk spirits were forced to co-exist. Learning to live with KU fans, you come to commiserate with them, knowing the same kind of folly-filled history that they also suffered through. See, we kids might not have seen the most consistent of programs, but both schools did have a heyday, however brief it was.

Both schools had at least marginal success in the '60s, with Kansas going 49-39-4 between 1960 and 1968, including two top-11 AP poll finishes (two of the victories were forfeited, but I'll keep them in for the sake of this argument). Missouri fared even better with a 77-22-6 record from 1960 to 1969 and finished in the AP top-11 five times.

Since the AP writers' poll went into effect in 1936, both teams have had their shot at making it into the top five. KU reached its benchmark ranking of number three in the country during the 1968 season, while MU crept all the way to number one heading into the final game of the 1960 campaign, only to lose that contest to the Jayhawks (it was one of the forfeited victories, but again, just for the sake of argument).

But even with the past success, most of the younger fans of these two schools can only relate to miserable teams sometimes playing miserable, lopsided games. Heck, the only two times both teams have been ranked going into the game were in 1968 (No. 7 KU def. No. 13 MU 21-19) and 1973 (No. 20 KU def. No. 19 MU 14-13).

Then, you get to the 2007 season. A year where "wacky" is the only word to describe the college football landscape. Appalachian State wins at Michigan (wacky). Five Number 2s fall to unranked teams (wacky). Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Michigan, USC, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech all have more losses themselves than Kansas and Missouri combined (insane).

I went back to K.C. for the first time in almost four years this past weekend. Around town, you could feel the anticipation in the air when the Tigers beat Kansas State early on Saturday. It got even thicker once Iowa State proved no match for the Jayhawks a couple of hours later. I could hear it and see it while out on the town that night. Everyone finally could realize the stakes, the dreams, and the possibilities.

This game that had moved to K.C.'s Arrowhead Stadium for a mere glimpse of exposure became more than a blood feud. It was now a showcase blood feud. It grew into one of the most important pieces in this season's BCS puzzle. Who could have said that five years ago? Shoot, how 'bout five months?

On my trip home, I drove down State Line Road, more reminiscent of my childhood and high school days than anything else. But now, I can look back on that as a symbol of two proud states that share history beyond just one "fluky and important" football game in 2007.

I must admit that, for once, it feels good to root heavily for a team that's a big part of a national championship picture. But my pride also comes from the fact that the chief rival to my cheering for the last two decades is along for the ride. Even with my bitterness towards Jayhawk Nation, I have to agree that KU's season is a great story. One that deserves a fairy-tale ending in a warm location at the beginning of January.

Just not on a cold, bitter November night in Kansas City, okay?

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 2:07 PM | Comments (0)

The NBA's Polar Opposites

Once upon a time in the twin cities of Minnesota, the Timberwolves and their fans were certain they had the components on which to build a champion. They had two young studs, a lean athletic big man who could stare down any defender and any challenge, and a razzle-dazzle 19-year-old point guard from the mean streets of Brooklyn with ball-handling and crossover talent oozing out his eyeballs. They were going to take on the world and bring Minnesota to the promised land for the first time since the Lakers left town.

Sure, it was a great script, but one that was ultimately left in the trash. The tandem played only two full seasons together, and had only two playoff wins to show for it (that's games, not series, if you're scoring at home). Stephon Marbury then bolted from a great teammate in the Great Lakes to a terrible team in the swamplands of East Rutherford.

Other than hitting a game-winner in the classic and underrated 2001 All-Star Game, that situation didn't really work out for him. He got swapped to Phoenix for Jason Kidd and the Nets found their way. Marbury, meanwhile, other than hitting a crazy game-winner against the Spurs in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs in 2003 (seeing a trend here? a flare for the dramatic, just in not-so-big games), that situation didn't really work out for him, either. So, the Suns found someone better in Steve Nash, and New York and Isiah Thomas came calling. He even got them into the playoffs once. Very briefly. Does anyone even remember that now? Well, since then, to say that situation didn't work out for him would be understating it just a bit (John Starks just called, he wants his No. 3 back).

In short, Stephon Marbury has been a lot like Good Luck Chuck. He may seem like a solid guy to have but ultimately things won't really get better for you until he leaves. And this may all have stemmed from him leaving Garnett in Minnesota.

So what happened to Garnett? Well, he stayed loyal, kept his faith in a team in a small market with very little amusements or nightlife and very little talent around him for the most part. He always seemed to be getting cut down to size in the postseason by Tim Duncan's Spurs or Shaq and Kobe's Lakers. Still, he made his claim in 2004 when the T-Wolves took out Mike Bibby's Kings in an epic seven-game thriller and made it into the Western Conference Finals. This is still the farthest into the playoffs the Minnesota franchise has ever gone.

When it finally was time to move on, Garnett found himself the best possible situation; a team that was devoted to turning around its bad fortune, and willing to sign two star players in one offseason. While Garnett may be just one of Boston's new Big Three, he alone is the poster boy for the restoration of Celtic pride, and quite possibly the biggest reason the Celtics are 9-1 and the top team in the entire NBA.

Now the two men who could have put the Timberwolves on the map are as far off in opposite directions in the league as humanly possible. While Garnett is the centerpiece of a new title contender in Beantown, Marbury's attitude and emotional baggage has weighed down most of the Knick teams he has played on, culminating in an open threat to expose his own coach of doing God-knows-what with who-knows-who as a result of being benched just a week ago. And I haven't even mentioned in this space how he virtually ran tried-and-true coach Larry Brown out of town two years ago, as well. Continually, Stephon Marbury proves that he does not have what it takes to pass a team sports chemistry test, and each of his teams have reflected that.

And yet these two men are not entirely different. Most notably both wear their inner-city toughness on their sleeve quite literally (tattoo artists rejoice), both made the jump from high school to the NBA when critics complained they should have polished their games in college, both were expected to be saviors for as long as they've been in the league. And both have played for their share of bad teams. Yet it is clear Kevin Garnett's character has been built while the enigmatic Marbury's has simply been revealed.

All you need to know about them in their respective 2007-08 seasons is that Marbury whined and complained and eventually threatened to spill his coach's sins all over the NY tabloids all because the coach wanted to bench him for the benefit of the team. This happened while Garnett was making statements such as, "It's amazing what you can accomplish when no one cares who gets the credit" while averaging at least 13 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block a game to go along with his steady 20.7 ppg through 10 games. The team has only faltered once against top conference rival Orlando in a game in which the Celtics came back from 20 points down on the road before finally succumbing.

All signs point to the Big Ticket being punched for big things, perhaps a Finals berth in the near future. Meanwhile, the fallen Starbury continues to sink another promising roster while more and more fans in the nation's largest market grow increasingly hostile and impatient. Just think, if that uber-talented 19-year-old kid had just stayed by his big man's side and taken some notes, they could have been sharing a Wheaties box. Instead, they make for quite the fitting bookends in a league where everyone is talented, but only some are driven in that right kind of way.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

November 22, 2007

A New Dawn For Ohio State, Russia

As a Buckeye alum, I was, of course, devastated when Ohio State lost to Illinois two weeks ago, especially since the subsequent victory in Ann Arbor meant it potentially cost them a shot at the National Championship Game.

But now, I'm good, because I have a you-heard-it-hear-first-prediction. Ohio State will indeed be playing in the title game.

They currently lay fifth in the BCS standings, but two of those teams, Kansas and Missouri, play each other, so OSU is as good as fourth. That means they need to climb two more spaces to make it into the game, so two losses by the teams ahead of them.

One of the teams to try to leapfrog will be the winner of the KU/Mizzou game, which will have to beat the Big 12 South champion, likely Oklahoma, in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma beat Missouri earlier this year and will be favored against either team if Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray are healthy by then.

Then there's LSU. They have Arkansas at home, which is a rivalry game, and then the SEC Championship. If it's against Georgia, it stands to be a de facto road game for the Tigers.

Finally, West Virginia. They also have two games left, both at home. One is against UConn, whom they are tied with for the Big East lead, and arch-rival Pitt.

Still, you have to like the elite teams to win these games, and not the hopeful underdogs. But the factor that gives me the most confidence is the x-factor. By now, everyone has seen the stat that a top-five team has lost to an unranked opponent this year 11 times. Teams are getting knocked off by others that aren't even very good. And except for Pitt, every opponent left for the teams ahead of Ohio State has at least 25 votes in the coach's poll. Ohio State will be in New Orleans in January, mark it.

While I'm foretelling of good fortune for the Buckeyes, it's a much gloomier picture in England, where the men's soccer team needed only to beat Croatia at home to qualify for Euro 2008 on the last day of qualifying. Sure, Croatia is good, but they had already clinched qualification and had not yet played in Wembley Stadium against the the best team in the qualifying group (on paper).

Croatia went up 2-0 early and held that lead at half-time, but England drew even with two goals 11 minutes apart in the second half. This sent a surge of cheer throughout the whole country, as England needed only a draw to qualify.

Alas, Croatia regained the lead 13 minutes from full-time, and that was that. This will be the first time a "home nation" (the countries that comprise the United Kingdom, plus Ireland) will not be represented at the Euro since 1984. FYI, the last time a World Cup was held without a home nation was 1938, and only because England declined an invitation.

UEFA, the sport's governing body in Europe, has a nice system for drawing teams into qualifying groups. They look at results from the last round of Euro qualifying and the last round of World Cup qualifying, and then break them off into pots. Teams that did the best went into Pot A, the second best into Pot B, and so on.

With 14 spots in Euro 2008 up for grabs (two teams — co-hosts Austria and Switzerland — qualify automatically), the Nations of Europe were split into seven pots of seven (Pot 7, the weakest, had eight). Each group gets a random team from each pot, and in theory, this creates groups pretty even with one another, with all the strong, mediocre, and weak teams evenly distributed.

Their formula for determining which team belongs in which pot, as explained, received a pretty strong endorsement today. Of the 14 teams in the top two pots, 13 qualified. And again, only 14 spots were even available.

England, as you might have surmised, was the unlucky exception. They were in Pot A. Croatia was in Pot B.

So who was the lone qualifier not in the top two pots, the benefactor of England's stumble?

They are probably still celebrating and slamming the house beer in Kruzhka, and Ivan Drago would be happy, if he were real.

The Russian team contains no real superstars, and only has a handful of players who play outside of Russia. The face of the team probably belongs to Dutch manager Guus Hiddink, who has led both Korea and Holland to World Cup semifinals, and Australia to their first World Cup in 32 years, where they too advanced out of the group stage.

Given his history to lift teams to heights never before reached, Russia has an excellent chance to get beyond the group stage of a major competition for the first time since the dissolution of the USSR. Being a betting man, I intend to capitalize on that. There's no reason not to put $20 bucks on Russia to take the title at 34-to-1 (currently).

A lot will depend on the draw, where once again, the 16 teams are divided into four pots. They are naturally in the weakest pot. Best case scenario would see them in a group with Austria, Sweden, and Romania. Worst case scenario would be Holland, Italy, and Germany. Incidentally, thanks to a lot of draws in World Cup '06 qualifying, France is also in the worst pot, which means it will be possible for one of the Euro 2008 groups to be Italy, France, Germany, and Holland. That would be the group of death to end all groups of death.

So let's break out the shchi and the sbiten, and celebrate the beauty of Miss Atom. I've found my latest team to get behind.

NOTE: I submitted this story, and then sauntered over to the main page to see what was new. What's new is, Adam Russell has a column up where he makes many of the exact same points that I did about Ohio State. Hand to heart, we did not collaborate and I did not read his piece before writing mine, although I see now he's obviously a genius.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:54 AM | Comments (1)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 12 (Pt. 2)

Denver @ Chicago (-2)

In his first start since getting benched, Rex Grossman did not throw a single interception. Last year, that would have probably meant a 34-9 Bears victory. Heck, last year, even when Grossman threw three interceptions and fumbled twice, the Bears would still manage a 24-23 win that would send Dennis Green to the verge of insanity. But that was then, and this is now. A near error-free game from Grossman doesn't necessarily mean a Chicago win. In last Sunday's instance, it meant a 30-23 Seahawks win, as the Bears defense gave up 425 yards of total offense.

"Our problems go well beyond Rex Grossman," says Lovie Smith. "Rex, as well as other quarterbacks in Chicago 's history, are basically measured against Jim McMahon, who QB'ed the Bears 1985 Super Bowl-winning team. Take away that Super Bowl win, and McMahon's claim to fame would simply be mooning a helicopter. Don't get me wrong. That's much more impressive than anything Rex has done so far.

"The point is this: there have been other quarterbacks in Chicago's storied history who didn't win the big one, but still had fine careers. There's Bob Avelini, Peter Tom Willis, and Vince Evans, who beat the odds, rising from the ghetto, finding success in the wake of the bad career choices made by his three older siblings, J.J., a dee-jay, Thelma, a crack-addicted prostitute, and Michael, a drag queen, making his loving mother Florida, and his temperamental, but good-hearted father James, very proud. We just want Rex to be Rex, but we want Rex to be Rex about 50 times better."

Success in Denver is apparently not predicated on Broncos wins, but on the number of timeouts the obsessive-compulsive narcissist of a coach Mike Shanahan can call before the opposition's field goal attempts. He did it again Monday night against the Titans, calling timeout just before Rob Bironas hooked a 56-yard attempt. Bironas then nailed the rekick.

"You down with OCD?" says Shanahan. "Yeah, you know me. I'm naughty by nature, not 'cause I hate you. I just want my name in the rule book when they outlaw the timeout before the kick. I'm that insecure."

Is there any hope left for the Bears? Only if a fire-breathing grizzly in a Brian Urlacher jersey shows up. Denver wins, 27-21.

Houston @ Cleveland (-3½)

If the playoffs started today, the Browns would just miss the No. 6 seed on a tiebreaker to the Titans. But Cleveland has six more games to secure a playoff berth, which would be their first since 2002. That year, the Browns fell to the Steelers 36-33, just another disappointment of many in the history of Cleveland sports. The list is long and distinguished.

"Hey, is this the part where Val Kilmer, as Iceman, says 'So's my Johnson'?" asks Derek Anderson. "One of the great lines in cinematic history. But, yes, there have been some sad moments in Cleveland sports. There's Earnest Byner's fumble, Michael Jordan's shot over Craig Ehlo, and the Indians' loss to the Braves in the 1994 World Series. However, that all pales in comparison to the Browns firing Bill Belichick as coach. If he were still coach, we could be the team dominating the NFL and running up scores, and I could be dating a supermodel. Maybe not. Have you seen my picture? Well, I at least could be dating Brady Quinn's rejects. And Tom Brady could be the draft pick cut by the Ravens who achieved greatness with another team. Anyway, Houston could possibly be a team with which we'll be fighting for a playoff spot in the end, so we desperately need this win as a tiebreaker."

Speaking of "Johnson's," the Texans Andre returned last week from a knee injury, and was unstoppable against the Saints. With Johnson, the Texans are like Maverick with his wingman Goose. Without Johnson, Houston is like Tom Cruise extolling the virtues of Scientology — unwatchable.

"If I could go on The Oprah Winfrey Show and talk up Andre," says Matt Schaub, "then I'd jump up and down on her coach like a madman and tell him how much I love him. Hopefully, that wouldn't creep Andre out too much, and he'd still agree to catch my passes and follow my cultish religion."

After two highly emotional games in the last two weeks against division foes, the Browns are mentally spent and ready for a breakdown, much like Katie Holmes. The Texans pull the upset, 30-23.

Minnesota @ NY Giants (-7½)

The Giants took a huge step towards securing the top wild card seed with a gritty 16-10 win over the Lions, as Michael Strahan sacked Jon Kitna three times (all legitimate), then engaged in a verbal sparring match with Kitna, who claimed the Lions were still the better team. In fact, he guaranteed it.

"Since when is a guarantee from Kitna worth more than, say, a 1974 Topps Mario Mendoza rookie card?" asks Strahan. "It's worth less. In fact, it's worthless. Kitna's obviously having the same kind of delusions of grandeur he had when he guaranteed 10 wins. Here's a guarantee of my own: Adrian Peterson won't gain a yard against us."

That's a bold statement, Strahan, but Peterson will be chillin' on the sidelines in his sweatsuits, which is still pretty exciting to watch. But Chester Taylor proved the Vikings running game hasn't petered out, despite Peterson's knee injury. Taylor rushed for 163 yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders last week in Minnesota 's 29-22 win.

"If you can get to the second level on the New York defense," says Taylor, "you can run for days. Their secondary is easy like Sunday morning. Honestly, I can't wait to get to Giants Stadium. Not necessarily to play the Giants, but to stand with my teammates along the pedestrian ramp at Gate D and make catcalls at lovely women in the hopes that they'll join us on our next sexy-time cruise. And, if we're lucky, we'll fill our roster and maybe, just maybe, appear in the next DVD of Gate D Gone Wild."

Giants win, 23-14.

New Orleans @ Carolina (+3)

What must have been going through the mind of Steve Smith as he watched from the sidelines as the Packers beat the Panthers last week, 31-17?

"It was a feeling of total helplessness," says Smith. "Much like the feeling I get when I'm on the field. It's hard to get open when you're being triple-teamed. And, even when I do get open, there's no guarantee that Rony Seikaly will even throw me the ball. What? That's not Rony Seikaly? Well, he looks a lot like Vinny Testaverde. Hey, they both look good in orange. Anyway, this has been a season to forget. It makes me want to crawl in a hole and cry. Or, review tape in the film room with Pee Wee Herman. Or, better yet, crawl into a bathroom stall with two Carolina Top Cats and cheer them on."

Smith is a true gamer. Even when he's not playing, he's cheering on his teammates, no matter how much they suck. Put other wide receivers in his situation, and they'd probably whine and pout, irritate management, and miraculously find themselves on the roster of the Super Bowl favorite. Should Smith return from a shin injury, the Panthers can win. Without him, they might as well hole up in a car trunk. Smith starts, and turns a short pass into a long touchdown. John Kasay kicks the game-winning field goal, and Carolina wins, 24-22.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-5)

In their narrow 13-10 loss last week to the Colts, Chiefs quarterback Brody Croyle outplayed Peyton Manning, outdoing Manning in every statistical category. After getting the start two weeks ago, Croyle has quickly made a name for himself as the best Chiefs quarterback from two weeks ago to the present.

"Hey, I'm not much on Chiefs' history," says Croyle, "but it's nice to have my name mentioned with the other greats in the team's history, like Tony Montano, Sonny Bono, Richard Dawson, Al Green, and El DeBerg. Those guys were great quarterbacks. I just hope I can live up to their legacy, or my name's not Popeye Croyle."

Croyle's obviously a little giddy about his recent success, so much so that he's talking gibberish. And gibberish is what you get whenever you try to get a straight answer from the Kansas City organization about the status of their running backs. Is Priest Holmes retiring? What's so secret about Larry Johnson's foot injury? Who's their third-string running back? Inquisitive minds want sucker-free answers.

Croyle throws for a score and the Chiefs win, 20-14.

Seattle @ St. Louis (+3)

So Matt Hasselbeck puts his kids to sleep by reading from his playbook? Man, that kind of torture is banned under the articles of the Geneva Conventions. But please, feel free to broadcast it loudly over the speakers at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Otherwise, you're not American.

Need another cure for insomnia? How about watching an NFC West football game?

"Hey, don't knock NFC West football," says Hasselbeck. "It's worth the price of admission just to see which Shaun Alexander will show up — the 'wah wah' Alexander or the 'rah rah' Alexander. I don't know what happened to Shaun. He used to be a guy that would go out and dish out as many hits as he took. Now, he's nothing more than a two-bump chump."

The Rams won their second straight, edging the 49ers 13-9 despite six sacks of Marc Bulger. Bulger survived, and will face a Seattle defense that has given up only five touchdowns through the air.

"Our offensive line has been decimated by injuries," says Bulger. "We've tried everything: free agents, different blocking schemes, even dirty blocks that the Denver Broncos offensive line wouldn't even try. None of it worked. I never thought it would come to this, and I've questioned the coaches on this one, but we're going to have our lineman say 'Nee!' to rushing defenders. It's worth a shot, I guess."

Seahawks win, 27-16.

Tennessee @ Cincinnati (+1)

We could sit here all day debating the pros and cons of quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Vince Young, but who wants to hear about that when there's the story of a nightclub altercation between Titan teammates Pacman Jones and Albert Haynesworth. Apparently, Jones and Haynesworth were relaxing at a nightclub, minding their own business, when Jones began showering random dancers with cash money. Haynesworth, forgetting that he has a hamstring injury that's kept him out of two games, rushed over to collect the free cash, and, in his haste, stepped on the much smaller Jones. A shoving match ensued, along with an East Coast-West Coast rap feud and a The Source Music Awards show. Then, all hell broke loose when George Clooney and Fabio got into an altercation. Then, Jones met with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to discuss his reinstatement.

The Titans rush for 215 yards on the ground and win, 30-20.

Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3)

Tampa Bay opened up a two-game lead in the NFC South, whipping the hapless Falcons while division rivals Carolina and New Orleans lost. The Bucs boast an undefeated division record of 3-0, and face a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Beat the 'Skins, and a game at Houston in Week 14 would mark their only remaining game against teams that currently have a .500 record or better.

"You're telling me we've got a chance to go 12-4?" asks John Gruden, sporting a Jolly Roger on the deck of his 180-foot yacht The Billy Ocean. "Wow! The NFC really has gone downhill. But don't knock the NFC South. This division has put at least one team in the playoffs in each of the last five years. The South is tougher than people give it credit. I heard people, like Neil Young, have put us down. Well, I hope Neil Young will remember, an NFC South man don't need him around, anyhow."

Tampa wins, 19-14.

San Francisco @ Arizona (-10)

What do the Cardinals most regret in their season so far?

"Well, it's kind of irritating when Kurt Warner audibles with verses from scripture," says Edgerrin James. "Sometimes, I don't know whether to pick up the safety blitz or build an ark. But I would say our biggest regret was losing to the 49ers in Week 1. That's a loss that may come back to haunt us, especially if we finish 6-10 and one game out of first in the NFC West. But, when life gives you a second shot at the 'San Francisco Treat,' you've got to take appropriate action, just as you would if you had to guess the price of a box of Rice-A-Roni on 'The Price Is Right.' I'd say 79 cents, and we're gonna beat the 49ers like Bob Barker pummeled Happy Gilmore, and I'm gonna have my dog spay or neutered, whichever comes first."

San Francisco is in the midst of a disastrous season, tied for last in the West at 2-8. Coach Mike Nolan has reminded his players that they must "stay the course." Oh really? Well, if you stay the course and you're in last place, wouldn't that keep you in last place. What's next? Is Nolan going to boast "mission accomplished" on an aircraft carrier in San Francisco Bay? Then watch his approval ratings hover at numbers close to the 49ers' winning percentage?

"Hey, if it will allow me to keep my job for eight years, I'll do it," says Nolan.

With the Lions coming back to the field, the Cardinals look like the team that could slip into that last playoff spot. And, with the kleptomaniacal tendencies of cornerback Antrel Rolle scoring points for the Cards, they're unstoppable. At least against the 49ers, or until Warner gets hurt. Cardinals win, 27-9.

Baltimore @ San Diego (-9)

At 4-6, the Ravens are a desperate team. At 4-5, they were also a desperate team, and that was before they had a victory over the Browns cruelly and agonizingly, albeit justly, snatched from their hands by the correct call. Brian Billick was miffed at the officiating crew's ruling, which overturned the original call on the field although field goals are not reviewable.

"Look, I'm not upset that the officiating crew circumvented the rules to arrive at the right call," says Billick. "I'm just upset that they circumvented the rules to arrive at the right call at my expense. I don't fault the Browns at all, and I bear no grudge towards Phil Dawson. Next time, however, when he makes a kick like that, it would be nice if he called 'bank.'"

Don't worry, Billick. I'm sure the NFL will examine that situation, and it will be "under review," as will the terms of your dismissal at season's end. Yeah, I know it's been a tough season, but look on the bright side. If you score your season highlights to the upbeat tempo of a Wham! song, it will look much better.

The Ravens and Chargers sported the NFL's two best records last year, 13-3 and 14-2 respectively. The memory of those records is ancient history, much like the age of the Ravens defense. The fact is, these two teams don't scare anyone, not even Scooby and Shaggy. Alfred Hitchcock couldn't make these Ravens scary, and Shawne Merriman is getting flattened by Cosby kids with three names. But, this still should be a physical battle. LaDainian Tomlinson won't rush for many yards against the Ravens, but he'll toss a touchdown pass or punch it in from the one after a Kyle Boller fumble. San Diego wins, 20-13.

Philadelphia @ New England (-22)

It's business as usual in New England and in Philadelphia . The Patriots continue to score like a pinball wizard, and Donovan McNabb is hurt. New England slaughtered the Bills to near extinction, 56-10, as Tom Brady threw four touchdown passes to Moss. Brady has 38 TD passes on the year, while Moss has 16 scoring receptions. Brady is on pace to break Peyton Manning's record of 49, while Moss is gunning for Jerry Rice's mark of 22.

"Chalk it up," says Moss. "Tom will get the record, and I'm on Jerry like white on rice. I want to prove to all those who have criticized me in the past that they were wrong about me. Criticizing Randy Moss is wrong, and doing so amounts to defecation of character. I've been reading up on the law."

Randy, you must mean "defamation of character."

"Hey, whatever the crap you want to call it."

While the pompous soon-to-be champs are eating their Wheaties while envisioning a photo of themselves on the box, bookies across the land are shatting their collective pants whenever the line for the Patriots game is released, which soon rises five to eight points when smart investors place their early bets with a satisfied grin. The Eagles opened as 17 point underdogs. Now, that line is as high as 23½.

"This team could make history," says New England special teams great Larry "H to the" Izzo. "Sure, we could go undefeated and win the Super Bowl. But I think a game in which the spread equals the over/under would truly cement the legacy of this team."

Is there any hope for the Eagles? Not to win, but just to cover the massive spread? The Patriots are just one hit away from going from a "great" team to a team that's just slightly less than "great." At some point this year, Moss will have to take a hit across the middle, and Brady just might face some physical contact that leaves him unable to complain to the officials about it. Can the Eagles do something to stop the Patriots' juggernaut?

"Hey, I don't have a clue," says Brian Westbrook. "But I just did it with Miss Scarlett in the conservatory with the candlestick, while Colonel Mustard watched. And speaking of weapons, we'll need our official thugs Vinnie and Joey to break out all the weapons they have, including the revolver, lead pipe, wrench, rope, or revolver."

Patriots win, 42-21.

Miami @ Pittsburgh (-16)

In Miami , the 0-10 Dolphins are stinking up the joint, and Ricky Williams' joint is stinking up Miami. The Dolphins are four losses from equaling Tampa Bay's 0-14, and six losses away from completing an 0-16 season. It may be too late for Williams to help them on the field, but he can offer support in other ways.

"I've started a support group," says Williams, "called H.E.M.P. That stands for 'Help End Miami's Pain.' At best, we can go 6-10. At worst, we can go 0-16. But at least we'll keep the record for NFL futility in state."

The Steelers took a step back in their quest for classification as the AFC's second-best team. In a 19-16 loss to the Jets, the Steelers were beaten in all phases of the game, leaving Mike Tomlin less than pleased with his team's effort.

"I guess you could say we were a bit overconfident," says Tomlin. "I promise, we won't underestimate the Dolphins. How could we? They haven't won a game. We absolutely don't want to lose in back-to-back weeks to a one-win team and a no-win team."

Pittsburgh wins, 27-9.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:40 AM | Comments (1)

November 21, 2007

BCS Still a Muddy Mess

Well, well, well. All the ranting and raving and crying and arguing about whether Oregon should get a shot at the National Championship Game is nothing more than a whisper in the past, now that the Duckies have fallen from the ranks of the elite (maybe one player really does make a difference). And all the shucking-and-jiving about how Oklahoma would jump above both Oregon and Kansas and unfairly get a shot at the title game is also a memory and nothing more. But don't think the controversy or stumping for your favorite underdog has ended.

If things play out a certain way, it is possible that only one of the top five teams in the BCS standings could end up in the National Championship Game and that, believe it or not, is Ohio State. Left for dead two weeks ago after their loss at home to Illinois, the Buckeyes find themselves done for the year in fifth place in the BCS and all the teams above them with one or two games remaining. It's not too far of a stretch to think that every one of those teams could lose before the bowl games are picked.

First off, top-ranked LSU has Arkansas this weekend, followed by the SEC championship game against either Tennessee or Georgia. The Bulldogs have a non-league game with Georgia Tech remaining, while Tennessee will play at Kentucky. If the Vols end up winning, they'd win the SEC East based on a victory over Georgia earlier this year as the two teams would end up 6-2 in conference play. While LSU has not faced either team this season, it's not inconceivable that either of them could knock off the Tigers in Atlanta. How far they'd fall in the BCS is unknown, although it is likely they would fall below No. 2.

Meanwhile, the No. 2 and No. 4 teams collide this weekend as Kansas and Missouri clash in Kansas City. Whichever team loses will drop out of the title hunt while the other will ready themselves for a date in the Big 12 championship against either Texas or Oklahoma. The Longhorns have arch-rival Texas A&M this week, while the Sooners have their all-time nemesis, Oklahoma State. It would appear, although nothing is certain in this topsy-turvy college football season, that both should win, leaving them tied atop the Big 12 South. But Oklahoma would get the nod over Texas thanks to their win a few weeks ago. That would pit the winner of Kansas/Missouri against the Sooners. Oklahoma did manage a win over the Tigers this year, but has not faced the Jayhawks. Either way, an upset could be in the making there.

West Virginia, now No. 3 in the standings, has one major speed bump to climb over, with apparent smooth sailing the rest of the way. The Mountaineers get to host Big East-leading Connecticut this weekend, a game that they should win, although, again, it is hard to gauge who will be toppled from week to week. Nether team has played an impressive non-league schedule, and their conference isn't exactly the SEC or Big 12, although it is improved from years past. But, should WVU win, their season finale is against Pittsburgh, a non-contender this year. However, if UConn pulls the upset, bye-bye any chance at the title game for the Mountaineers.

Which brings us back to Ohio State ... and Arizona State. The two teams locked in to the Rose Bowl (well, the Sun Devils aren't exactly locked in yet, but they do sit atop the Pac-10 for now), could end up playing in the national title game. If LSU, Kansas, West Virginia, and Missouri all lose down the stretch — and one of them is guaranteed a loss (Kansas or Missouri) — then the logical outcome would be for the Buckeyes to move up to No. 1, with ASU right behind (provided they don't lose to either USC or Arizona). But we're talking about the BCS here, which is anything but logical at times. I really don't think either LSU or Kansas would fall below Arizona State, or even Ohio State for that matter, but if winning down the stretch matters as much as it is believed it should, that's the way it should be.

So now a bevy of other scenarios come to mind. Does Missouri bounce back ahead of West Virginia if both win out and get into the title game? What about Georgia if everyone above them (except for Ohio State) loses? They're on a roll right now. And don't forget Oregon, USC, Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech. I'm not saying that any of these teams have a legitimate shot at the title (other than Missouri), but they all have to be considered.

So, once again, as in previous years, the BCS is no more clear today than it was in early October and, with a number of important games on the horizon the next few weeks, it might not become any clearer.

Posted by Adam Russell at 11:35 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 36

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished a smooth seventh at Homestead to easily win his second Nextel Cup title, completing the year with 10 wins and a 77-point lead on Jeff Gordon. Johnson becomes the first repeat Cup winner since Gordon in 1997-98.

"Is this a beautiful piece?" asks Johnson, hoisting the 2007 Nextel Cup trophy. "Last year, after I won this, we let each member of the team keep the trophy for a day, just like the NHL does with the Stanley Cup. It was a great way to let the guys know how much a part of the championship they all are. It worked out great for everyone, although the trophy came back about 3 3/8 inches shorter after Chad Knaus returned it."

2. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished fourth, giving him a NASCAR record 30 top-10 finishes on the year, but couldn't match Jimmie Johnson's dominance over the last half of the Chase.

"It's not often you hear the second-place finisher say this," says Gordon, "but I own Jimmie Johnson. Well, at least I own the car. But I can't be disappointed with my year. I got married, welcomed a daughter, and finished second in the Cup standings. That's two wins and a second, which I really could have used in the last three races of the Chase."

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer started the Chase with a stunning win in New Hampshire, but went out with a whimper in Florida, finishing 39th. Still, Bowyer finished third in the final standings, and served notice that he'll be a force to be reckoned with in 2008.

"I think fans are ready for a country boy to win the Cup," says Bowyer. "You know, I'm not a family man like Jeff Gordon, and I don't have the eyebrows of a two-time Cup champ, but I do drive the Jack Daniels car, which gives me appeal to fans of all ages. I've got a liquor license that I hope will allow me to pour a shot of whiskey into the 2008 Cup."

4. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth was dominant in the Ford 400, leading 214 or 267 laps on his way to his second win of the year. Kenseth also finished strong in the Chase, with five top-fives in the final five races to move up to fourth in the points.

"You know how sometimes you get the feeling that you are being watched?" asks Kenseth. "Well, I had just the opposite feeling on Sunday at Homestead. I got the eerie feeling that I wasn't being watched. And if my commercials had feelings, they would sense the same feeling — that they weren't being watched."

5. Kurt Busch — Busch finished second in the Ford 400, leading 17 laps and collecting his best finish of the Chase. He finishes seventh in the points.

"Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson," says Busch. "He's apparently got winning the Cup under the Chase format figured out. And congratulations to Jeff Gordon, who's apparently got winning the Cup under the pre-Chase format figured out."

6. Kyle Busch — Busch's final ride in a Hendrick Motorsports car ended with a 20th place finish at Homestead. Busch finishes the year fifth in the points, and will begin his career as a Joe Gibbs' driver in February at Daytona.

"Yeah, just what I needed," says Busch. "Tony Stewart calling me a 'rookie' again. But I fully expect us to share information, such as testing and setup tips, as well as effective ways to irritate other drivers and NASCAR officials."

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart completed a disappointing postseason by slapping the wall 14 laps from the end of the Ford 400. He eventually finished 30th, three laps down, and come home sixth in the final standings.

"I've been fairly silent since I realized I had no chance to win the Cup," says Stewart, "which was about eight races ago. It's always a disappointing season when your race wins are outnumbered by the audible expletives you've uttered on live television. Next year, I promise to clean up my act and curse only when there's no camera around."

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards closed out the year with a fifth at Homestead in a race won by his teammate and sparring partner Matt Kenseth. Edwards finishes ninth in the points, 501 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"Yeah, but I did win the Busch Series title," boast Edwards, "which carries about as much importance as finishing ninth in the Nextel Cup points standings. I'm looking forward to next year, in which I'll devote most of my time to Cup races, and even more of my time to intimidating Matt."

9. Jeff Burton — Burton finished strong in the second half of the Chase, with four top-10s in the final four races, including an eighth in the Ford 400, which left him eighth in the final point standings.

"We dug ourselves a hole early in the Chase," says Burton. "Luckily, I wasn't lonely there. There were at least six other drivers in that hole with me. And none of us ever made it out, quite frankly. Before being totally covered, I faintly recall seeing Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon holding shovels."

10. Martin Truex, Jr. — With the departure of Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to Hendrick Motorsports, Truex becomes the face of Dale Earnhardt, Incorporated. Truex finished the season strong, with a sixth at Homestead that left him 11th in the points, 559 out of first.

"I guess Dale, Jr. answers to Rick Hendrick, now," says Truex, "while Teresa Earnhardt will continue to answer to the voices in her head. What's DEI without Dale Earnhardt? What's Budweiser without Dale Earnhardt? What's Teresa without her whipping boy?"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:35 AM | Comments (3)

November 20, 2007

In the Box: NFL Week 11

Back to a full slate of games. Holiday rush. Bottle of Red Label to get me through. Go.

New England 56, Buffalo 10: I could play football against a team made up of my 13-month-old son and 10 of my daughter's dolls and not be any more dominant than the Pats were against the Bills. It was like the Nazis vs. the French or Britney Spears vs. a bottle of pain killers. The Bills had no chance. None. The only question was how it bad it was going to get.

And it could have been a lot worse.

Two thoughts that came to mind:

1. This is the best offensive line in football, even missing right guard Stephen Neal (replaced by Russ Hochstein). Buffalo's Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel were complete non-factors. That's saying something.

2. I wonder if somebody is going to try and pry away offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. As the guy calling the plays for potentially the most prolific offense in history, he's got to get as much credit for the Pats' offensive success this year as Eric Mangini did for the Pats' defensive success two years ago. Neither was the architect, but McDaniels, like Mangini, is pulling all the perfect strings.

(The question is whether McDaniels would bite on an offer. Personally, I'd rather stick around for a few years to call plays for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever.)

Anyway, I feel bad for Buffalo. A Week 12 tilt at Jacksonville is no way to recover from that kind of beating. Happy freaking Thanksgiving.

(Seriously. Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. Thanks for reading.)

Fantasy Impact: At least Laurence Maroney got a TD before he disappeared. The Pats should consider drafting Darren McFadden in April.

The Pats now have a 2.5-game edge in the race for home-field. Here's how the rest of the playoff picture looks:

AFC:

1. New England (10-0, AFC East)
2. Indianapolis (8-2; AFC South)
3. Pittsburgh (7-3, AFC North; the loss against the Jets may have cost them a bye)
4. San Diego (5-5; AFC West; based on head-to-head win over the Broncos; re-match in Week 16 in San Diego)
5. Jacksonville (7-3; should be a road favorite in the wild card round)
6. Tennessee (6-4; based on better strength of victory than the Browns)
7. Cleveland (6-4; Remaining schedule below; I like their chances)
8. Denver (5-5; beat the Bills based on a better conference record)
9. Buffalo (5-5; better conference record than Texans)
10. Houston (5-5)

NFC:

1. Dallas (9-1; NFC East; better conference record than Green Bay; the two play each other in Week 13)
2. Green Bay (9-1; NFC North)
3. Seattle (6-4; NFC West; won head-to-head over Tampa Bay in Week 1)
4. Tampa Bay (6-4; NFC South)
5. NY Giants (7-3)
6. Detroit (6-4; you can feel the collapse coming)
7. Washington (5-5; based on better conference record than Eagles, with whom they split the head-to-head series, and head-to-head win over Arizona)
8. Arizona (5-5; better conference record than Philadelphia)
9. Philadelphia (5-5)
10. Carolina (4-6; won head-to-head over New Orleans with a re-match this Sunday; better conference record than Minnesota)

Current top five picks in the draft:

1. Miami (0-10)
2. Oakland (2-8; .450 strength of schedule)
3. San Francisco (2-8; .460 strength of schedule; pick owned by New England)
4. St. Louis (2-8; .480 strength of schedule)
5. NY Jets (2-8; .510 strength of schedule)

Tie-Breaker Procedures

Among the more critical games, Week 12 features Green Bay at Detroit on Thanksgiving, New Orleans at Carolina, Washington at Tampa Bay, Houston at Cleveland*, Baltimore at San Diego, and Denver at Chicago in what is essentially an elimination game for the 4-6 Bears. Check back next week for the updated picture.

* That's right. Houston at Cleveland in Week 12 has major playoff implications.**

**I love the NFL.

The rest of the week that was:

Cleveland 33, Baltimore 30: Don't look now, but the Browns could very well end up 12-4 and hosting a playoff game. Their final six: Houston, @Arizona, @NY Jets, Buffalo, @Cincinnati, San Francisco. 11-5 or 10-6 are more likely, but no less remarkable.

With that said, that defense still leaves something to be desired. Any time the Baltimore offense puts up more than 350 yards, the opposing defense is doing a lot of things wrong.

As for the Ravens, what a horrible way to lose a football game. It was the right call, but that doesn't make it any less gut wrenching. Blame has to go to the two officials who initially got the call wrong. How hard is it to miss a football kicked from 50 yards away bouncing off metal goalposts five feet from your head? I called it immediately and I was busy pinning down my son so he could take a breathing treatment he hates. They had one job: WATCH THE BALL GO THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS. ALL CAPS EXCLAMATION POINT!

Anyway, the rest of their schedule: @San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, @Miami, @Seattle, Pittsburgh. And to compound the issue, the Ravens have a terrible conference record (currently 1-6), likely costing them any chance at getting a playoff spot by tiebreaker. (Conference record is the second tiebreaker after head-to-head).

It's time for GM Ozzie Newsome to rebuild the offense under a different head coach.

Fantasy Impact: You have to love what Browns offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski is doing with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. There are only four receiving duos with at least 100 receptions, 1,500 yards, and 10 TD:

T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Chad Johnson: 135 receptions, 1,744 yards (12.92 avg), 14 TD

Randy Moss/Wes Welker: 134 receptions, 1,781 yards (13.29 avg), 23 TD

Terrell Owens/Jason Witten: 113 receptions, 1,724 yards (15.26 avg), 17 TD

Edwards/Winslow: 103 receptions, 1,604 yards (15.57 avg), 14 TD

That's pretty good company (and another indication of just how pathetic the Bengals defense is. 3-7 with that kind of passing attack? Terrible.)

Jacksonville 24, San Diego 17: One of those games where you look at the score and say "yeah ... that's about right" and go on to other more interesting topics. The Jaguars are about a touchdown better than the Chargers, who are probably going to need the AFC West crown to make the playoffs. Luckily for them, nine wins probably gets it done. And the payoff is likely a re-match against the Jags at Qualcomm.

One note that needs to be mentioned: the Jags' punt and kick-off units did a great job of containing Darren Sproles. He only averaged 7.5 yards per kick-off return and 5.7 per punt return. Considering the impact Sproles had against the Colts, that's impressive work.

Fantasy Impact: On the bright side for San Diego, Philip Rivers did manage just his second 300-plus yard passing day of the season (309 to be exact). It was the first time he had even cracked 200 since Week 5.

Philadelphia 17, Miami 7: Depending on the severity of Donovan McNabb's thumb injury, we could be entering the Jay Feeley Era, designed only to stave off the eventual Kevin Kolb Era, which may or may not be the prelude to the Life After Andy Reid Era.

(I'm not necessarily advocating Reid's departure. Sometimes a fan base gets tired of a certain level of success, believing they're entitled to greater level of success, so they run off a good coach and roll the dice they can replace him with someone better. It's happened to Lloyd Carr at Michigan and Joe Torre with the Yankees in just the past month. Will the Eagles join them? My guess is yes.)

(Let's face it. The move for T.O. poisoned this franchise. McNabb and Reid may both need to go before the organization and fans can finally turn the page.)

Fantasy Impact: Quote from last week: "What the hell are the Dolphins waiting for? Put in John Beck and see what happens."

9-of-22 for 109 yards, no TD, no INT, no sacks taken. Actually, not too bad for a debut under those circumstances.

(No sacks? The Eagles had no sacks? Against a rookie QB making his first start on the road? Are you kidding? Good luck getting to Tom Brady next week.)

Indianapolis 13, Kansas City 10: That Peyton Manning guy must really suck.

Just kidding, obviously. The Colts will be fine. Adam Vinatieri will hit them when it counts. Marvin Harrison will be back. Tony Ugoh will be back. Dallas Clark will get healthy and so will Bob Sanders (both are playing dinged up). We can all chuckle now at the Colts' struggles, but don't by any means dismiss them as a threat.

Fantasy Impact: Dwayne Bowe (7 catches for 64 yards and a great TD) probably isn't going to make the Pro Bowl, but he should definitely garner some consideration as a replacement selection once half the players voted in invariably decide not to play.

NY Giants 16, Detroit 10: Like I said, you can just feel the Lions' collapse coming. Thursday against Green Bay could be ugly.

(Or they could blow the Packers out. I've been wrong about the NFC North all year. Why should now be any different?)

Fantasy Impact: One of those "fantasy vs. reality" conflicts on Shaun McDonald.

Fantasy: 7 catches for 113 yards. Good game.

Reality: Another fumble, big drop at the end that turned into a comeback-killing pick. Bad game.

Houston 23, New Orleans 10: This is what happens when your offense depends on one guy's ability to break plays. Reggie Bush has 67 receptions, fourth most in the NFL and one more than Randy Moss. But he only averages 5.6 yards per catch. How many times do you have to run the swing pass to figure out Bush isn't going to break five tackles for a touchdown? It's like hitting on the same bar tender over and over again hoping one day she'll realize what a great guy you are and go home and sleep with you. It's not going to happen. Get over it.

(In other words, take those passes to Bush and start throwing them down field. They can't drop all of them.)

Also, this Houston team is completely different with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson both healthy. Cleveland better not start thinking they've got it made or the Texans might just steal their playoff spot.

Fantasy Impact: On behalf of all Saints fans and Drew Brees owners, #@%& Eric Johnson. He had two easy receptions bounce off his hands for cake interceptions. A lot of people played poorly on Sunday, but nobody killed their team and their quarterback more than Johnson.

Arizona 35, Cincinnati 27: That's it. I'm throwing in the towel on the Bengals. Their defense is just too terrible. And their offensive line stinks, too. Marvin Lewis has lost this team.

On the other side, Arizona's final six: San Francisco, Cleveland, at Seattle, at New Orleans, Atlanta, St. Louis.

Seattle's final six: at St. Louis, at Philadelphia, Arizona, at Carolina, Baltimore, at Atlanta.

With four home games for the Cardinals to only two for Seattle (a bad road team), the overall edge goes to Arizona. With that said, the biggest game remaining for each team, the re-match of a Week 2 Arizona win, will be at Qwest in Week 14. Chances are the winner of that one takes the division.

Fantasy Impact: What? You were expecting Leonard Pope to put up two touchdowns every week?

NY Jets 19, Pittsburgh 16: The Steelers' three losses this year: Arizona, Denver, and the Jets, all on the road. That's got to leave you with some questions about their character as a team. I'm not saying they're bad guys, but something isn't clicking right. They need to beat up on Miami and Cincinnati the next weeks to get their mojo back before finishing at New England, Jacksonville at Heinz, at St. Louis, and at Baltimore.

Also, Pittsburgh LB James Harrison should be the defensive player of the year.

Fantasy Impact: Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery only had one catch for five yards, by far his worst game of the season, but with Laveranues Coles injuring his ankle and the Jets on a short week playing at Dallas on Thanksgiving, Cotchery looks good for a bounce-back.

Seattle 30, Chicago 23: Patrick Kerney is turning into a force for Seattle with four sacks and two forced fumbles in his last two games. If the Seahawks end up pulling out the division, it's going to be very difficult for an opponent to go into Qwest and win a playoff game.

With that said, Seattle is still a much worse team on the road than they are at home. It'll be interesting to see if they can win at St. Louis against a Rams team that's 2-0 since they started their re-do.

Fantasy Impact: Was that Cedric Benson with a 43-yard touchdown run? Couldn't have been. Crazy talk.

Green Bay 31, Carolina 17: The Packers are a machine right now. From the coaches to the offense to the defense to special teams (recently activated Koren Robinson averaged 33 yards on three kick-offs, including a 67-yarder), everything is clicking. (Well, Mason Crosby did miss two kicks, so that wasn't great. But everything else is.)

Fantasy Impact: Was that Drew Carter putting up 132 yards receiving on the road? Couldn't have been. Crazy talk.

Dallas 28, Washington 23: Another reason why watching pre-season games is good for you:

From my Preseason Week 1 Notes column, talking about the Cowboys/Colts game: "Troy Aikman, who called the game with Joe Buck, thinks Terrell Owens is going to have a huge year. He's going to play the 'X' position in Garrett's offense, the same position played so successfully by Michael Irvin."

Come to think of it, T.O. did look awfully Irvin-esque in this one.

Fantasy Impact: Another fine day for Jason Campbell. In the last two weeks, he has completed 56-of-88 attempts (63.6%) with 5 TD and 1 INT. Unfortunately, the Redskins lost both games and now travel to NFC South leaders Tampa Bay in Week 12.

Also, it deserves mention Santana Moss finally came to play (9 catches for 121 yards and a TD). Welcome to the party, Santana. Glad you could make it.

Denver 34, Tennessee 20: If Mike Shanahan's goal was to get back in the top spot of NFL coaches I'd like to see contract a painful inflammation in an uncomfortable place, he's getting there. It used to be his spot. Then it was taken by Eric Mangini after his rat job in Week 1. But now that karma has taken its own revenge against Mangini, it might be time for the king of killing fantasy owners to reclaim his throne.

Why such the vitriol? Because his decision to "ice" Rob Bironas (stupid, stupid rule) at the end of the first half took a missed field goal off the board for my opponent (-2 in our league) and gave him a chance to kick a 56-yarder, which he made (+4 in our league). Six-point swing. I lost by four.

Bastard!

Fantasy Impact: So now you're telling me I have two injured Broncos running backs clogging up my roster, and I can't drop either? Super.

Minnesota 29, Oakland 22: If only you could have a winning season without throwing a touchdown pass, the Vikings may have something.

Fantasy Impact: Quote from last week: "Chester Taylor's long wait to get back in the spotlight is finally over. Let's see what he does with the opportunity."

Answer: 22 carries, 164 yards, 3 touchdowns. Makes you wonder if it's really the greatness of Adrian Peterson we've been watching all year or just a really good offensive line. (That Steve Hutchinson signing turned out to be worth every penny for Minnesota.)

St. Louis 13, San Francisco 9: Mike Nolan's weird decision making continues. Last week, he gave away opportunities for points by going for it on fourth down instead of taking the easy three. Then this week, down a touchdown late, in Rams territory, on fourth-and-10, he kicks the field goal. So they still need a touchdown to avoid the loss, except they can't recover an on-side kick that never even made it the mandatory 10 yards, the Rams run out the clock while the 49ers burn their timeouts (they had all three), then the 49ers try to drive the ball all the way down the field with time running out, which of course they can't do.

Fantasy Impact: Exactly what you would expect from two 2-8 teams.

Tampa Bay 31, Atlanta 7: The Bucs have to be the most under-the-radar division leader of the past decade. Seriously, if you were having a conversation about the best teams in the NFL, how long would it take you to get to Tampa? Yet here they are, 6-4 with a two-game lead in their division, with the second-stingiest scoring defense in the NFL (151 allowed, Pittsburgh has allowed 145), and remaining schedule featuring exactly zero teams currently in playoff position (5-5 Washington, at 4-6 New Orleans, at 5-5 Houston, 3-7 Atlanta, at 2-8 San Francisco, 4-6 Carolina).

Fantasy Impact: None for the Bucs offensively. That's what makes this so amazing.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 12:39 PM | Comments (0)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 12 (Pt. 1)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Green Bay @ Detroit (+3)

Brett Favre proved that youth will be served in his Senior Bowl battle with Vinny Testaverde, as the Packers took down the Panthers, 31-17. Favre threw three touchdown passes and probably set some record that has to do with age, incompletions, or the kind of longevity that would make a giant tortoise envious. As the victor in the contest between the oldest starting quarterback duo in NFL history, Favre won the "Golden Stool Award," made from the hardest and most consistent mahogany from the finest forests this country has to offer. This week, Green Bay heads to Detroit, where they will face a Lions team stinging from a loss to an inferior team (Jon Kitna's words, not mine, Mr. Strahan) and in the slow process of fading from the playoff picture.

"A lot of people are expecting a letdown from us," says Favre. "We've practically clinched the division, and a loss would mean little to our hopes of clinching the No. 1 seed in the NFC, since we play Dallas next week. But we don't want to break tradition. Just like turkey and stuffing, a Lions loss is a Thanksgiving Day tradition. So all that remains for us is to decide is how large a container of whoop-ass do we want to open. Do we want the smokeless tobacco-sized can, the snuff-sized can, or the Red Man-sized pouch? Either way, it will be messy for the Lions.

"The Lions can run, but they can't hide. Wait. They can't run. Wait, again. They can run, only backwards. And they can't hide. Even behind Matt Millen's ample behind and seemingly untouchable job security. I guarantee the Lions won't get victory No. 7 on my watch. Heck, they might not get it at all this year. We want the Lions' head on a platter. However, we don't condone bounties in our locker roon, nor do we condone the actions of Dog the Bounty Hunter. And we definitely don't condone dressing like Dog the Bounty Hunter. The dude looks like the offspring of the Ultimate Warrior and Jackie Stallone."

Favre underestimates the Lions, and the power of revised guarantees. The Lions race to an early 10-0 lead, and hold on for a 27-24 win.

NY Jets @ Dallas (-13½)

Despite the Jets' 2-8 record, don't expect the Cowboys to take them lightly, despite Dallas' 9-1 record and a clear talent advantage on paper. But paper doesn't win football games, unless you're in the seventh grade and just won your paper football league title game 140-126, and have an uncanny ability to slide a triangular piece of notebook paper across a desk and have it stop, with just a part of the paper over the edge. Touchdown!

"Don't be surprised if paper football is on ESPN soon," says Dallas safety Roy Williams, who leads the league in the obscure category of 'tackles made on receivers who just made a catch in front of you.' "It would fit nicely between a competitive eating event and a paper, rock, scissors tournament. Anyway, the Jets just beat the Steelers, so we won't underestimate them. It's never wise to underestimate anything from New York. Have you ever heard of 'Travis Bickle?' He didn't scare anyone until he became a workout warrior, got a mohawk, and went gun-crazy. Huh? Yeah, I am talkin' to you. Anyway, the Jets will have to deal with Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, as well as our secret weapon, owner Jerry Jones, who's derailed many an opponent with his creepy habit of patrolling our sideline while feverishly biting his nails. In a long line of disgusting habits of Cowboys, that's easily the most disgusting, but also the only one not punishable by law. So carry on, you wayward nail-biter."

Romo and company will have to overcome a New York squad that sacked Ben Roethlisberger seven times. Unlike the lumbering Roethlisberger, Romo's not one to sit and let a collapsing pocket engulf him, unless it's a collapsing pocket of B minus-list females swarming his table at The Chamber, Tank Johnson's favorite club to shoot pool and get loaded. Romo's a master of throwing on the run with some unorthodox delivery that would make former baseball relievers Dan Quisenberry or Kent Tekulve grimace in pain. In other words, he's a "Rhinestone Cowboy," riding out on a horse in a star-spangled rodeo.

"He even gets cards and letters from people he don't even know," says Owens. "Which, I must say, is better than getting death threats from people I don't even know, which, in turn, is better than getting death threats from people I do know."

Romo throws two touchdown passes, two to Owens, and Leon Lett is nowhere to be found on the Cowboys field goal defense team. Dallas wins, 31-20. After the game, Romo hits the town with Jets backup quarterback Chad Pennington, who, despite a new haircut and two canisters of AXE body spray, is a bust with the women, most of whom find it unappealing that Pennington can't even lift his drink. Romo throws a yellow flag, and Pennington is issued a "delay of game" penalty, resulting in his ejection from the club.

Indianapolis @ Atlanta (+11½)

When the Colts and Falcons last met, it was a preseason game in Japan in 2005, and a Tokyo Dome crowd of over 42,000 briefly put aside their obsession with Godzilla to watch Atlanta beat the Colts, 27-21. Despite the absence of barbed wire, broken fluorescent light bulbs, a flaming wrestling ring, or a K-1 Grand Prix final, the Japanese fans roared their approval at the spectacle. And a photo from the Japan Times of Reggie Wayne grabbing a reception, captioned "Asian Snatch," received 200,000,000 hits from interested viewers around the globe, who, sadly, were disappointed.

"Consider me disappointed," says Peyton Manning. "When surfing the Internet, never expect to get what you pay for, especially when you don't pay for it. This has been another 'Priceless Pep Talk' from Peyton Manning. Here's another one: don't bench Joey Harrington for a mildly retarded-looking backup who looks a lot like Bubba Gump, especially when Harrington has led you to two-consecutive wins."

That must be directed at Bobby Petrino, who seems bound and determined to turn his entire team against him. Petrino gave Byron Leftwich the start over Harrington, who threw the game-winning touchdown pass two weeks ago to beat Carolina. Leftwich responded with two interceptions and two fumbles, and, in a move reminiscent of his heroic performance in a 2002 game against Akron while at Marshall, was carried by two of his Atlanta offensive lineman and tossed off the field.

"I can totally understand if Petrino wanted to give Gump the start if we were in New Orleans," says Harrington. "But why would he give him the start when I've clearly mastered the offense as well as Bach's seventh symphony on the piano. Leftwich's the kid who never could quite get the hang of playing the triangle."

A mere three weeks ago, the Colts were in the conversation as possibly the league's best team, and Atlanta was in the conversation as possibly the league's worst. While the Colts have certainly dropped a few degrees, they are still many degrees better than the Falcons. But just for fun, wouldn't it be great if Tony Dungy started Jim Sorgi over Manning? Dungy's not stupid, and he also has no sense of humor whatsoever. But elementary teachers in the Atlanta Public School system do. Two game tickets are awarded to the student with the best entry in the "Start a Sentence With 'Michael Vick' writing contest. Vick watches from the slammer, and Indianapolis makes a statement to the Falcons, and that statement is this: our injury list looks like a Pro Bowl roster compared to your starting lineup. Colts win, 27-13.

Buffalo @ Jacksonville (-7½)

The Jaguars out-muscled the Chargers 24-17 last week, and no single play was more indicative of Jacksonville's physical play than Maurice Jones-Drew's block of a blitzing Shawne Merriman. Jones-Drew flattened the stunned Merriman, who ended up on his back as the Jags scored the decisive touchdown.

"Blow, blow, blow him up, Merriman I did cream. Merriman, Merriman, Merriman, life is but a dream," says Jones-Drew. "This one goes out to Priest Holmes, and Jason Taylor, and to the one I love, me, the 'Human Bowling Ball.' Some call me Maurice. Some call me 'space cowboy.' Some even call me the 'gangster of love.' Merriman doesn't seem to be the same player he was last year. I guess a four-game suspension and the threat of a drug test will do that to you."

The Jaguars are certainly playing like a team that could make some noise in the playoffs. That is, until they meet the team known as "The Muffler," the Patriots. Jacksonville will measure themselves against the Bills, who lost 56-10 to New England last Sunday night. Buffalo briefly made a game of it when J.P. Losman hit Roscoe Parrish for a first quarter touchdown pass to cut New England's lead to 14-7. Then, trailing 42-7 in the third quarter, Dick Jauron made a gutsy decision to kick a field goal instead of going for the first down.

"Hey, with the field goal," says Jauron, "we made it a four possession game. We trailed by 32. Four touchdowns and four two-point conversions and we're right back in it. And, if the Pats can score on their first seven possessions, why can't we score on four of our own? Don't answer that."

With David Garrard at quarterback, the Jaguars don't turn the ball over. With a win over the Bills, Jacksonville will head to Indianapolis the following week with another shot at the Colts, who will likely still be more dinged up than Lindsey Lohan's Mercedes. This is exactly the type of game the Jags could look past with their eyes on Indy. And the Bills play everybody tough, except the Patriots. But the Jags are pumped. Prior to the game, the Jags introduces a companion mascot to Jackson DeVille, Mick Jaguar, who leads the crowd in a rendition of the Rolling Stones "Start Me Up" before being thankfully leveled by Jones-Drew. Jacksonville wins, 26-19.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

Hidden Valley

You have to love the parity in college basketball.

Gardner-Webb beating Kentucky? Mercer beating USC handily? That's what makes college basketball ... especially March Madness, so much fun. On a given day, any team, no matter how small the school, can topple the big boys.

And though you have to give the Atlantic Sun Conference some serious props for two huge non-conference triumphs to start the year, there is one mid-major conference that, in the coming years, will rise up and join the elite conferences of the game.

The Missouri Valley Conference has already made some noise in recent years. Bradley, Wichita State, and Southern Illinois have reached the Sweet 16 in the last two years. Missouri State knocked off Wisconsin last year in dramatic fashion. And before there was Gonzaga, Creighton was the household name for upset specials come March.

However, thanks in part to George Mason's magical run, and the fact that the NCAA Tournament Committee decided to fill the brackets heavy with Big East and ACC teams, the national buzz about the Valley has subsided quite a bit.

That will end soon ... very soon. This basketball-crazy conference is destined for big things.

The Valley has all the pieces in place to be huge. It's got a seriously good team in Southern Illinois, whose smothering defense will give the best of teams fits. It's got fan followings that would open some eyes across America. Last year's tournament in St. Louis saw sellouts for the semifinal and championship games. That's over 22,000 fans a game ... not your typical "mid-major" attendance numbers by any stretch.

Creighton's averaging over 15,000 fans a game ... can Texas, Oklahoma, or Michigan top that?

Missouri State is building a brand-new, state-of-the-art arena that will seat just over 11,000. Auburn is also building a new arena ... that will seat around 9,500.

Why go to Auburn, Michigan, or some of the bigger names, when you can go play in front of bigger crowds in the basketball-crazy Missouri Valley?

There's talent in the Valley ... just look at Southern Illinois, for example, and more is on the way. With media centers in St. Louis, Des Moines, and Wichita, it won't be as hard for the MVC to garner attention then smaller conferences, and with more and more parody in the game, some real quality will be finding their way to the Valley in the upcoming years.

And finally, look at the coaches. Chris Lowery is a young superstar coach in the making. Gregg Marshall, whose Winthrop teams dominated the Big South, will take a rebuilding program at Wichita State, and no doubt transform it. Dana Altman was coveted by many of the big-name programs in America, after transforming Creighton into a household name. And don't look past Missouri State's Barry Hinson, a man whose Bears have received the NCAA shaft the past two years (MSU's RPI was no lower than 33 both years). He's made the Bears into a dangerous team, and no doubt he'll throw a wrench into someone's season.

Things are slowly setting into place in America's heartland. Don't be surprised if five years from now, we'll all be talking about the Valley.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:04 AM | Comments (0)

November 19, 2007

Tennis Match-Fixing? Don't Believe It

The 2007 tennis season has come and gone.

On the men's side, numbers one and two remained the same. They both successfully defended their Slam titles from 2006. Everyone else played catch-up. David Nalbandian surged too little too late. Novak Djokovic confirmed his status as the best challenger of the next Slam title. It all ended in China Sunday when Roger Federer stamped the confirmation on what we already knew; he is still the best player in the world.

On the women's side, it was a year of up-and-downs. Serena Williams surprised everyone, including the John McEnroe's and Pat Cash's of the world by winning the Australian Open. Neither Serena nor sister Venus could, however, find a solution to Justine Henin's dominance on the year. Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic provided some sparks. Lindsay Davenport made a comeback. Martina Hingis made an exit.

What? I left something out?

Oh, that's right! How dare I leave out the extraordinary corruption charges stifling the world of ATP? Stop the press! Please...

In a steady-but-flat season such as this one, all tennis media outlets resorted to the same cheap pattern that is used in any other sport; let's find some disturbing fact, warrant it far more attention than it deserves, make the responsible organs feel like Mr. Paranoia is knocking on the door about to move into their house, and make them agitated so that they overreact. And now, lo and behold, we have a story, folks!

And the powers that be played right into their hands. The fine given to Nikolay Davydenko for "lack of effort" was the most ridiculous thing that I have heard since Snauwaert's ErgoNom tennis rackets. The man wins the first set easy, loses the second set close, and then is fined for throwing away the third? Don't they see this happen all the time? This is recurring pattern in tennis tournaments, and it does not necessarily mean that the match was thrown away. Had he lost 6-1, 6-0 in 42 minutes, then I could understand. But then you better start by giving Roger Federer a fine, too, unless you were in another planet when he played Filippo Volandri in Rome.

I will make it even easier on the ATP and even give them a Russian target, since they seem to be popular group to scrutinize for the governing body, but you are over six years late on this one; watch Yevgeny Kafelnikov lose to Hugo Armando 6-1, 6-1 in Kitzbuhel, Austria. As someone who was there to watch that fiasco live, I can attest that Kafelnikov wanted to leave that court and that town at warp speed during the five-minute warm-up already.

I know if we go back far enough, we can find much worse. But my point is this: not only did the ATP fall into the trap and let Mr. Paranoia in, but it slept in the same bed.

In tennis, where theoretically it would be easy to seduce a player into a fixed match, in actuality very little of it goes on, if any. First of all, it is a very close group of people. Most players hang out together, they know each other's private lives and habits, and for the most part lead responsible daily lives in comparison with what athletes do in other popular sports.

For any tennis player to get involved in a match-fixing scheme, he would have to be a loner on the tour, be in constant contact with his partners in crime, and yet make sure that nobody else knows about it. To top it all, he would have to pull a masterful act to lose a match willingly and still make it look legitimate. Furthermore, since once you get involved in this scheme, you will not be left alone (à la Al Pacino in Godfather III, "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in"), you would have to be able to pull that same masterful act, several times without being noticed. Because in the professional tennis fraternity, the player gets involved in this type of scheme and the word gets out, he may as well move to Galapagos and hang out with Lonesome George.

It's just not that easy. Michael Llodra and Arnaud Clement of France were probably telling the truth about being approached. They were also telling the truth when they said that they hung up the phone and did not even talk to them. Tennis players are intelligent and the one or two idiots that will make the mistake should not be considered the norm and be launched in the world of sports news as a problem "invading all circles of tennis." Get real!

The ATP is actually on the right path in their preventive approach to the problem. They are collaborating with British betting sites to keep a closer eye on betting patterns and they are setting tough measures against those players who would get caught. They even had a now-repented ex-mafia person come and talk about how the players may be sucked into one of these schemes.

Where they went wrong was publicizing the whole charade. There was no need to issue a foolish fine for Davydenko for "lack of effort." There was no need to announce that the matches in the ATP Paris Masters event were being "policed" by a group of experts and ex-players to see if they can detect a match-fixing in progress. All this is done in the name of complying with the popular view that "the ATP is attacking the problem?" Big mistake. Now you have people who never followed a day of tennis in their lives calling the sport "crooked." You can't blame them either when the ATP is the one having a crow's party over the issue.

Even ATP President Etienne de Villiers adds fuel to the fire. There is nothing wrong with him announcing to the Associated Press on Friday that "nothing is more important than the integrity and honesty of the sport." However, there is something wrong, Mr. President, when you announce that you have chosen a "new anti-corruption chief," but you will not reveal the identity of the person. This isn't a covert operation, is it? There is something wrong when you try to give flashy quotes like, "Where there is money, there is temptation, where there is temptation, there is greed, where there is greed, there is crime," unless you think ratings and Hollywood-style drama is just as important as the integrity and honesty of the sport.

All these measures should be taken efficiently, but quietly. Superfluous publicity to show off the ATP's righteousness tarnishes the players and the reputation of the sport. It creates the wrong impression on the magnitude of the problem. Hence, the fight to keep tennis respectable in the eyes of the world becomes self-defeating.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:12 AM | Comments (1)

November 17, 2007

Our Stupid Sports Apology Culture

I'd like to begin by saying that I don't know anything about the University of Wyoming's football program. The last time it entered my thoughts was probably when I was using the team in a PlayStation college football game several years ago. You know when you've gotten so good at a certain sports game that you start using inferior teams just for a challenge? Yeah, that was Wyoming.

I know even less about Wyoming's head coach, Joe Glenn, except that he's the latest victim of a pathetic apology culture in sports, one in which genuine expression and honest emotion have been replaced by robotic political correctness.

Here's the situation: Glenn's team had lost three of its last four games, and he wanted to fire things up. So he told a gathering of Wyoming students at a luncheon last week that he guaranteed his team would defeat Utah in the teams' Mountain West Conference game.

Word trickled back to the Utes, who weren't all that pleased to hear this brash prediction. "That is just what he is going to say, good for him," linebacker Joe Jiannoni told the Salt Lake Tribune. "What can I say? I could guarantee he is not [going to beat us]. I'm not supposed to say anything because I'll get in trouble, but it gets my blood going."

Against Wyoming, Utah got everything else going as well: 10 points in the first quarter, 30 (!) in the second, and then another three in the third. The fans in Salt Lake City started taunting Glenn and his team about the now slightly inaccurate guarantee. Which really didn't sit well with him.

Neither did what the Utes did with a 43-point lead: attempt an onside kick. Wyoming snagged the ball and went on offense; the Cowboys' coach, however, was just plain offended. So he did what anyone whose ego had been marinating in embarrassment, disappointment, and rage for three quarters would do: he flipped the Utah sideline the bird.

It wasn't even an emphatic one; according to the highlight I saw, it was sort of that quick-from-the-holster, drive-by middle finger you might flash at a friend after a lousy joke. It certainly wasn't the kind of long-lasting flippage you see during a rush-hour merge on a D.C. interstate. (Never cut me off. Never.)

After Wyoming lost 50-0, Glenn lost his right to human expression. He was publicly scolded by his athletic conference, and no doubt by some friends of the program who chided him for poor sportsmanship or obscenity or some other nonsense. Which sent him spiraling into a string of apologies that was one mea culpa short of an appearance on Larry King.

Yet any discussion of sportsmanship begins and ends with the actions of Utah's coaching staff. If I've already had sand kicked in my face to the tune of 43-0, with fans taunting me around the stadium, and someone decides an onsides kick is the next logical progression of my personal pain, giving the finger would be practically kind; a more reasonable response would be to sprint across the field and swiftly hand the opposing coach his own ass. But referees frown upon that sort of thing, I suppose...

Hyperbole aside, Glenn shouldn't have apologized for anything. Not for poor sportsmanship or for bad judgment and certainly not for the dreaded "setting a bad example for the kids" business. Kids aren't stupid; they know when it's dad's job to yell and scream and drop some F-bombs, and they know it's not cool to do the same until they're old enough.

Someone decided a few years ago that society needed to hit the mute button on self-expression in sports. End zone celebrations. Candid quotes to the media. Honest assessments of peers. None of it is allowed lest the person stepping out of lock-step be chided for grandstanding or showboating or speaking out of turn. We are left with a sports landscape in which surprises are few and the next cresting controversies are as predictable as so many of the over-hyped games that are played.

A sports landscape seeded with constant, unending apology. Even when the offending action was honest, harmless and, above all else, understandable.

Greg Wyshynski is also a weekly columnist for SportsFan Magazine. His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 12:41 PM | Comments (1)

November 16, 2007

Ducking a Kansas Comet

So how many losses will the teams in the BCS title game in New Orleans have?

That's right, Wyoming coach Joe Glenn! One. Although when using a hand to communicate the number, people generally favor the pointer finger, Joe.

Just hours before Glenn hailed Utah with the one-finger salute for pulling off an onside kick with a 43-0 lead, Ohio State succumbed to Illinois. Yes, Illinois, which further proved that this college football season is straight out of the twilight zone and, left Oregon and LSU atop the BCS standings. Ohio State beating Michigan could potentially be the most normal thing to happen all season.

(Glenn, by the way, apologized for letting his bird out of its cage, but that gesture was far more understandable to most than guaranteeing a road victory over the Utes before laying a 50-0 egg, despite a 2-3 record in the Mountain West Conference coming in. And Utah coach Kyle Whittingham called the onside kick a "bad decision," in one of the biggest "no $%*#" moments of the season. But I digress.)

Back in the world of the relevant, the teams I've had in my top two for the last three weeks have finally found their perches in the BCS, with LSU set to basically host Oregon in the Superdome if both win out.

But there is, of course, a wrinkle to the one-loss standard (it's always something this year). A BCS conference team is undefeated. And yet no one is upset that they are the fourth-ranked team in the BCS. Even Jayhawk fans are remarkably quiet. Then again, Kansas fans are on the entry-level end of the experience spectrum with regard to being undefeated past, well, mid-September.

Kansas doesn't get respect because it is more unproven than Miss Cleo. It has not beaten a Big 12 team with a record better than 6-5. Non-conference? Don't ask. But no one really even believes that Kansas can dispatch both Missouri and Oklahoma anyways. So it's all good. Until they inevitably go undefeated and further scramble a BCS mess that looked to make sense for a minute. And then Oregon will duck back into 2001 mode, wondering what it has to do to get into a title game.

But for now, most people outside of Columbus are pleased with the newest BCS match-making results. Oregon's high power offense would be pitted against Les Miles' LSU Tigers, just months after Miles slandered the Pac-10, setting of inter-conferential warfare.

The matchup is almost perfect. Both lost just once, to a decent team in-conference that was better at the time than now (Kentucky and Cal). Both have beaten a pair of teams in the current BCS top 12 (Florida and Virginia Tech for LSU, Arizona State and USC for Oregon). And they both play in what, this season at least, are the top two conferences in the country.

The only downside to each is that their best road wins are less than stellar (Oregon beat Michigan, LSU's best came at Alabama). But right now, in this season of parity, there aren't any teams that have proven more than these two, and few are finding fault with the two squads. Did I mention I had them one-two in my top 10 three weeks ago? Hey, I have to get one right at some point, don't I?

Top 10

1. Oregon — Imagine a dual-threat quarterback with the lethality of Vince Young. Now imagine a tailback like Stephen Jackson standing behind him. Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart make the Ducks spread offense nearly unstoppable. Road games at Arizona and UCLA before returning home for the Civil War with Oregon State are all that stand between Oregon and a long ride to New Orleans. But they had better not fall asleep at the wheel, because the middle of the conference can be dangerous.

2. LSU — The Tigers, meanwhile, will face a ranked team before clinching a berth in a bowl game real close to home. But that won't happen until the SEC title game against one of three SEC East teams that just doesn't seem to want the division. Tennessee has the inside track at the moment via tiebreaker over Georgia. Kentucky will be the swing-vote; the Wildcats close the SEC slate for both the Vols and the Bulldogs.

3. Oklahoma — The two above are both one loss teams from good conferences. Oklahoma lost to Colorado. Conversely, Oklahoma's resume is currently superior to that of Kansas. The Sooners destroyed out of conference foes, and actually beat Big 12 teams with winning records in Texas and Missouri.

4. Arizona State — Recovered from the loss to a serious Oregon team by beating schizophrenic UCLA (the good version, I think) 24-20. The Sun Devils have been impressive in Pac-10 play, but have yet to beat a team currently ranked. They have their chance on Thanksgiving when USC comes calling.

5. Missouri — I'm just jumping the gun; Missouri is better than Kansas. Give it until Nov. 24, you'll see. Missouri has beaten Illinois (we just saw the damage that team is capable of) and Ole Miss before heading into the Big 12 to beat every team it faced by at least 14. Except, of course, Oklahoma. But if Kansas instead of Missouri had the Sooners on the docket, it would be the Tigers in the BCS title hunt and Kansas looking to knock them off of their Big 12 North throne.

6. Kansas — Yes, they creamed their weak out of conference foes. And yes, they didn't lose to any of the crappy Big 12 teams they have faced. But they haven't played any of the top three teams in the conference. There is not one win that strikes as impressive. And close wins against unimpressive Colorado, Texas A&M, and Kansas State don't exactly leave this team reeking of dominance. But hey, they did blow Baylor out of Lawrence, Kansas. And of course blew Bill Callahan out of Nebraska.

7. West Virginia — Quietly, the Mountaineers are churning along with control of their Big East destiny. Awaiting are the other two teams with conference records over .500. No, they beat Rutgers and Louisville already, and Rutgers also has three losses in the Big East. No, UConn and Cincinnati will test themselves to see if they are BCS-ready against West Virginia in what has surprisingly become the most balanced conference in the country, save Syracuse.

8. Ohio State — I'm not going to pile on. This is right about where I see the best team in the Big Ten; close to the bottom of the top 10. They will still make it to their annual beat-down of Michigan, paving the road to the Rose Bowl. It's just that no one wanted to see them lit up in another national championship game after the crutch that is the Big Ten collapsed from under them again.

9. USC — Awaiting the Buckeyes in Pasadena could very well be USC if the Trojans can fend off Arizona State and UCLA, assuming Oregon ends up in New Orleans. After injuries and Oregon seemingly sent USC on a detour toward the Holliday Bowl or worse. But after bouncing back with wins over Beavers and Bears, a fourth Rose Bowl in five years could be around the corner.

10. Georgia — The Bulldogs need to beat Kentucky this week to have a shot at LSU in Atlanta for the conference title. But they might not want to beat them up too badly, because they then need the Wildcats to take out Tennessee a weak later, assuming Vandy can't do it first.

By the way, if Kentucky wins both games, a four-way, 5-3 tie (including Florida, already done with SEC play) atop the division will result, and a two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned.

(Yes, that last line was lifted from Kenny Mayne in the movie "BASEketball." Sue me.)

Oh, and while I have you here as my hostag ... I mean guests, I may as well project your BCS bowls for you. Because the more things I guess, the more things I can be right about before casting the mistakes off into the land of the forgotten.

Title game — LSU vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl — Ohio State vs. USC (Trojans beat Sun Devils on Turkey Day)

Fiesta Bowl — Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

Orange Bowl — Missouri vs. Clemson (Although I don't like trusting my dark horse to Tommy Bowden)

Sugar Bowl — Georgia vs. Virginia Tech

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 10:18 AM | Comments (1)

November 15, 2007

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 11

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona @ Cincinnati (-3)

The Cardinals head to "The Jungle" to face the Bengals, who shut down the Ravens 21-7 while showing the ferocity of a feline not seen in the States since Roy Horn got slapped around by a white tiger in Las Vegas. Thankfully, Horn survived to wear a sequined jumpsuit again, and the Ravens will survive to score a meaningless late touchdown against a sorry defense again. The Bengals hope home-field advantage will help them overcome the up-and-coming Cardinals, who beat the Lions 31-21.

"Welcome to the jungle, they've got sin and crime," says Kurt Warner. "When there's no defense in town, they're all doing time. It's often against my religious beliefs to quote Guns 'N Roses songs, but I figure a descent into Hell is an appropriate occasion to do so. Speaking of 'Guns 'N Roses,' I think that's a crime Chris Henry has been charged with. Here's a little piece of scripture for Chris to live by: 'Beer after Kobra, never sober.' That's from Courvoisiers 3:16. Look it up. Furthermore, when will G 'N R's Chinese Democracy album be released, so I can add that to my 'to burn' list, along with Ozzy Osborne, Marilyn Manson, and The Teletubbies Christmas in the Tubbytronic Superdome, among others? And, how the Christ to those Bengals get a helmet on over their horns? Lord knows. They're deviant. I'm divine."

Cincy has yet to put together a two-game winning streak this year. A win over the Cards would give them two in a row. Holding the punchless Ravens offense to seven points is nothing. Arizona has weapons, including the "Christian Right" arm of Warner. But the Cardinals have had trouble on the road, losing four of five. The Bengals get 21 points the easy way, with touchdowns, and Shayne Graham adds three field goals. Cincinnati wins, 30-28.

Carolina @ Green Bay (-9½)

Brett Favre reached another milestone last week, joining Dan Marino as the only quarterbacks to throw for 60,000 yards in a career. Meanwhile, in Charlotte, Vinny Testaverde reached an impressive milestone of his own. He remained alive after turning 44-years-old on Tuesday.

"What Vinny does is amazing," says Favre. "He's so good, he sets records without leaving the comfort of his own wheelchair. He's gone from 'ageless wonder' to 'wonderless ager' in the span of one week. Gosh, when I'm 44, I really hope there's a place for me on some team. I figure in six years, the Panthers will still be looking for a quarterback."

The Packers will try not to look past the Panthers in anticipation of Green Bay's Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Lions in Detroit. Carolina will try to confuse Favre with disguised coverages and blitzes up the middle. Or they may just try to confuse him by playing three quarterbacks in one game. That's surely something he's never seen. And Testaverde should know that Green Bay is no country for old men. Packers win, 27-10.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (+ 2½)

The Browns called Cleveland home until Art Modell packed up the team and moved them to Baltimore. When the NFL awarded Cleveland a new franchise in 1999, the Browns were reborn. Now, Cleveland faces Baltimore in a game that means everything to the Browns, and very little to the struggling Ravens.

"I guess it will be like playing with ourselves," says right-hander Derek Anderson, who's tossed the Browns into the thick of the AFC wild card race with his quarterback play. "Although Pittsburgh beat us, I think we proved that we're for real. We belong. Whatever we deny or embrace, for worse or for better, we belong. And we'll certainly hit the Ravens with our best shot, which was more than enough for the TKO back in September. I know Ray Lewis may have something to say about that, but really, who listens to Ray anymore? We may not win the AFC North, but we'll be in the conversation when the wild card invitations are handed out."

The Ravens may be the NFL's most offensively-inept team, and have lately shown a penchant for getting shutout for most of the game, then tacking on a meaningless Willis McGahee touchdown run after the game has been decided, which is usually sometime midway through the second quarter. Last week, Baltimore turned the ball over six times and was down 21-0 before McGahee scored with under two minutes to go.

"Coach Billick is the master of the bird-brained offensive game plan," says McGahee. "Suddenly, Buffalo's not looking like such a bad city. If Anderson can quote Pat Benatar, then I can quote another 1980s rocking icon, Eddie Money, who looks like he played in the NFL for several years without a helmet. 'I wanna go back, and do it all over. But I can't go back, I know.' Calgon, take me away."

Hey, Willis. Just like Ronnie says, you're a little baby.

Steve McNair is listed as questionable to play Sunday. He's also listed as doubtful to play in Baltimore next year, and probable to be apart of Baltimore's "scratch and dent" sale at year's end. Cleveland completes the season sweep with a 27-19 win.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-14½)

The Chiefs and Colts will face-off in a rematch of their 2006 playoff game, which marked the first appearance of Indy's defense that year, and was the springboard to the Colts run to Super Bowl glory. Now, the Chiefs and Colts have matching two-game losing streaks, and the doubts are not about the Indy defense. Instead, the offense is a concern, after Peyton Manning threw six interceptions in a 23-21 loss to the Chargers.

"What? Me worry?" asks Manning. "Alfred E. Neuman's not the only one with 'mad skillz' around here. First of all, I'd like to apologize for throwing six interceptions. As if announcers and analysts needed another reason to say 'pick six' even more than they already do. That phrase sickens me, almost as much as hearing 'skill set,' or being on 'the same page,' or 'Tom Brady.' Anyway, everyone needs to stop worrying about the Colts. What's the big deal about losing to San Diego? We didn't exactly go into that game with intentions of winning, not without Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark. It's our second loss. We can now sit back comfortably, let the Patriots chase history, let the Steelers chase the No. 2 seed, and coast into the playoffs well-rested. Sure, that leaves us as the No. 3 seed, so we wouldn't see the Pats until the AFC Championship Game.

"I'm not saying we lost that game on purpose, but how often does Adam Vinatieri miss two field goals, much less a 29-yarder for the win? Out of respect for Adam and his four Super Bowl rings, I refrained from calling him an 'idiot kicker.' I did, however, give him a Mike Vanderjagt jersey as a gentle reminder that if he misses those kicks when it counts, in the playoffs, he just might get sent packing to Canada. Incidentally, Adam went on the David Letterman Show a few days ago and nailed that same kick through an apartment window."

The Chiefs should pose no threat to the Colts. Larry Johnson is out and Brody Croyle is in. The opposite would be much more advantageous to the Chiefs. Joseph Addai rushes for 134 yards, and Manning cuts his interceptions by six. Colts win, 27-10.

Miami @ Philadelphia (-10)

The Dolphins are a team that needs a quarterback, and Donovan McNabb is a quarterback that needs a team. Oh, everything's all fine and well when the Eagles win and McNabb throws four touchdown passes, but as soon as they lose, down comes the hammer on McNabb.

"Would I play in Miami?" asks McNabb. "You bet. Dolphins Stadium has real grass, which would be a lot easier on my surgically-repaired knee. As they say, the grass is always greener on the other side, and it's also greener in the spot where I've yakked. But, I'm not focused on next year. I'm focused on this season, and more particularly, the Dolphins. Coach Reid has put his personal issues behind him, and is intent on chasing Dolphins instead of dragons."

The Dolphins bullpen fell apart last Sunday, blowing a 3-2 lead to Buffalo and eventually losing 13-10 to fall to 0-9. Cam Cameron is contemplating a change at quarterback.

"Yeah, I'm thinking of not starting one at all," says Cameron. "When your choices are Cleo Lemon, or a rookie, John Beck, who, by the way, is a loser, baby, then you really have to think long and hard about it. I'd really like some input from Don Shula, but he's too busy crapping asterisks to be concerned with his old team. If those 1972 Dolphins showed the same passion towards us getting a win as they do towards the Patriots losing, then we'd be undefeated."

The Dolphins will probably be a part of the McNabb bidding war at season's end, so it's in McNabb's best interests to impress. He does, with three touchdown passes. Eagles win, 24-9.

New Orleans @ Houston (+1)

With a chance to move into a tie in the NFC South with a win, the Saints fell behind 34-7 before eventually losing to the previously winless Rams, 37-29. Still, New Orleans is only one game back of the Buccaneers and desperately need a win before a run of three consecutive division games.

"Reggie Bush always takes this matchup personally," says Sean Payton. "In 2006, he was overlooked for the No. 1 pick in the draft by the Texans for Mario Williams. Houston's still paying the price for that pick, and we're still reaping the benefits of Reggie, which, in turn, means his family members are well taken care of."

"I guess I am a little jealous of Reggie," says Williams. "Even my relatives say they wish they were related to Reggie. That way, they could say they were related to an NFL star. But I consider myself a star here in Houston. I break bread with Texas' finest, including President Bush, Lance Armstrong, Yao Ming, Matthew McConaughey, and Terry Funk. What do all those men have in common? Yeah, that's right. They've all lost 'I Quit' matches to Ric Flair. And I know all those guys. Who does Reggie know? I know he only runs in celebrity circles with A-list stars, such as Subway spokes-nerd Jared Fogle. Okay, so I guess I'm jealous of Reggie in that respect, too."

The Saints and Texans both are 4-5. The difference? 4-5 gets you one game out of first in the NFC South. It gets you nowhere in the AFC South. The Texans get wide receiver Andre Johnson back from a knee injury, but quarterback Matt Schaub is still a little banged up. Bush scores twice, and tosses cash into the Reliant Field crowd, showing extreme generosity by allowing anyone related to him to keep it. Saints win, 24-20.

Oakland @ Minnesota (-5½)

The Raiders are breathing a sigh of relief, having found out that Minnesota's Adrian Peterson will miss this game due to a tear in a knee ligament suffered in the Vikings 34-0 loss to Green Bay. There also happy about leaving the stench of the Black Hole, where the Raiders have lost three-straight home games, and Darth Vader no longer intimidates, although he can still use his incredible mind power to squeeze toothpaste out of the tube. Now, the Raiders invade the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome looking for their first win since a Week 4 win over the Dolphins.

"With Peterson out, we can now focus on stopping Minnesota's main offensive weapon," says Raider cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, who lists his heroes as Lester Hayes, Ken Houston, Deion Sanders, and Afrika Bambaataa. "That weapon would be offensive guard Steve Hutchinson. Besides Peterson, Hutchinson has the best footwork on the team. Before his knee injury, Peterson was harder to catch than Jason Bourne. Hutchinson is shifty in a different way, kind of like Austin Powers. With double-teams, I think we can neutralize Hutchinson."

Josh McCown started against the Bears last week, and was largely ineffective. He'll probably be on the bench this week shedding tears of a McCown, meaning either Daunte Culpepper or No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell gets the start. Lane Kiffin is feeling pressure from Raider owner Al Davis, who's constantly trying to influence Kiffin's decisions.

"I don't mind Al's input," says Kiffin. "I don't even mind him hovering over my shoulder. But the scythe and the black robe? That's just overkill. What? That's not Al? He's looking for Al? Well, I've got news for the Reaper. Al's not afraid of you. But hang around for a while. You could be the next Raider coach. You're a great judge of talent, and I know you'll be great when it's time for roster cuts."

Vikings win, 17-14.

Pittsburgh @ NY Jets (+9½)

It looks like the Steelers are in a dogfight for the AFC's No. 2 seed with the Colts, who lost their second in a row to fall to 7-2, a record shared with Pittsburgh. The Steelers won't let a date with the Jets in the Meadowlands stand in their way of their fourth-straight win, and Mike Tomlin won't let another Bill Belichick disciple stand in his way of world domination. Tomlin and the Steelers vanquished Romeo Crenel and the Browns last week. This week, Eric Mangini and the Jets host the hot Steelers.

"I've got the former Belichick assistants figured out," says Tomlin. "There's Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame. And you've got Mangini here in New York. There teams are a collective 2-17. What's the common denominator, besides losing? I'll tell you what it is. It's weight loss. Both those guys were fat slobs last year, and their teams were successful. Notre Dame made a bowl game, and the Jets made the playoffs. Then, Weiss and Mangini started to lose weight for some reason, maybe because their hearts would have exploded otherwise. Once the weight came off, they were left with nothing except extra chins and losing streaks. On the other hand, Crenel has stayed true to himself and maintained a 'refuse to lose' attitude. He practically looks just like he did 20 years ago as the 'Human Beat Box' in the Fat Boys rap team. He's remained hungry, and the Browns are feeding him with effort and three squares a day. So, unless Mangini's beefed up over the last two weeks, he's mine for the taking."

The Jets have one thing going for them — a bye week. That gave kick returner Leon Washington plenty of rest, and the Jets will sorely need his services, since he is probably their only hope of scoring against the Steelers. Roethlisberger passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Pittsburgh wins, 24-7.

San Diego @ Jacksonville (-3)

Both the Chargers and Jaguars picked up huge conference wins last week. San Diego, despite the lack of an offense, held on to beat the Colts, 23-21, while the Jags avenged an earlier loss to the Titans with a 28-13 win in Tennessee. Norv Turner and Jack Del Rio bring different coaching styles to the contest. Turner likes offense; Del Rio is a defensive guy. If the two met in a dark alley, they'd probably talk football. However, if a disagreement arose, Del Rio would probably physically overpower Turner, although Turner historically has shown ninja-like quickness and precision in tossing a laminated play-sheet frisbee-like with enough power to decapitate a human.

"I don't fear Jack Del Rio," says Turner. "I've always been down with new jack hustlers, and I'm sure Jack's cool with trick 'Turner's.' But I've always made it a point to be very wary of any man that drives a 1977 El Camino with mag wheels. I do, however, fear San Diego general manager A.J. Smith. If he fired a coach who was 13-3, I can only imagine what he has in store for me. But I'll say this. I got this team right were they were at this point last year — in first place. That should at least ensure my job until we lose to the No. 5-seeded wild card team, which could very well be these Jaguars. But, as long as Darren Sproles is returning punts and kickoff for scores, and Antonio Cromartie is returning interceptions for scores, and Philip Rivers remains invisible, we should be okay."

The Jags forced Vince Young to beat them last week; he couldn't. This Sunday, they'll make Rivers beat them. Jacksonville shuts down LaDainian Tomlinson and wins, 23-21.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (+3)

John Gruden's always been a fan of the bye week, especially when the Bucs' two closest pursuers in the AFC South, the Panthers and Saints, lose.

"It's always nice when someone else does the work for you," says Gruden, cruising the Gulf of Mexico in his armored catamaran, looking for any sign of Somalian pirates, of which he has orders to shoot on sight. "Do you think we could have won Super Bowl XXXVII without Monte Kiffin's cover 2 defense? I don't either. That's why I hired the crusty old man in the first place. Sure, I know it's distracting in practice when Monte wears shorts, white sneakers, and garters to hold up his dark socks, but nobody's got the nerve to tell him. Anyway, it's all about results, and Monte gets results. Against Atlanta, the plan is simple: keep the Falcons from penetrating our 10-yard line, and you keep them out of Morten Anderson's field goal range."

Tampa wins, 23-13. Gruden rejects a congratulatory handshake from Bobby Petrino by yelling, "Get your Falcon hands off me."

Washington @ Dallas (-10 1/2)

As the mastermind behind three Washington Super Bowls, Joe Gibbs can certainly match wits with the brains behind the Cowboys' 8-1 start, Wade Phillips. The problem arises when Gibbs has to match players. Gibbs has Jason Campbell at quarterback, who, while not flashy, is certainly adequate at the position. Phillips has possibly the NFL's most exciting QB, Tony Romo, whose improvisational skills on the field are matched only by those on the celebrity dating scene.

"Tony's what you call an 'omnivorous' dater," says Phillips. "He can go from an herbivore, like Carrie Underwood, to a carnivore, like Britney Spears, without missing a beat. Sure, I know Tony's not technically dating Britney, but he's a little apprehensive about making the jump to inter-species dating."

Indeed, Romo is as personable as Bugs Bunny, and he even knows how to get to Albuquerque.

The Cowboys also have the edge at wide receiver, where Terrell Owens lacks no confidence, as opposed to Santana Moss, who did something earlier in the year that Owens would never think of doing — quitting on his team. Okay, Owens has quit on two teams before, but come on, he's only played with three.

"I sure do love me some me," says Owens, waving a towel stenciled with the name "Goodell."

"Terrell loves him some he?" says Moss. "I don't think he quite realizes what he's saying, but when does he?"

The Owens/Romo relationship is a good one, because Romo recognizes that if he doesn't get T.O. his catches, he'll have to listen to Owens' mouth. Shouldn't that be motivation enough for any quarterback that plays with Owens? You would think.

Owens catches seven passes for 123 yards and a score, and Marion Barber III rushes for a score. Dallas wins, 26-14.

NY Giants @ Detroit (+2 1/2)

Despite losses last week to the Cowboys and Cardinals, respectively, the Giants and Lions are solidly in the playoff hunt with 6-3 records. So this game could very well decide the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs, or it could very well be the determining factor between the numbers 14 and 15 positions in next year's draft. You never know, especially with teams that just recently either rushed for negative 18 yards against the Cardinals, or gave up several big plays to lose to the Cowboys. Both teams gave up 31 points, which presents an issue that will haunt both teams in the playoffs.

"What? Losing?" says Detroit coach Rod Marinelli.

No, Rod. That would be defense. By the way, the name "Rod Marinelli" sounds familiar. Are you "Rod Marinelli, 1970s adult film star," or are you "Rod Marinelli, special teams standout for a Raiders team of the '70s."

"Neither," replies Marinelli. "I'm just a simple kind of man with a desire to bring a little discipline to the game. I want my players and coaches held accountable for mistakes on and off the field, like making foolish guarantees, for example. Is 10 wins attainable? Yes. The problem is we could win nine games, which would be considered a success, and still be viewed as a failure because we missed the guarantee. If you're going to guarantee something, make sure it's something you know will happen. Like, you could have guaranteed that we'd be playing on Thanksgiving, or that Matt Millen will still be president of the team, no matter what."

Tom Coughlin of the Giants has eased his authoritarian ways, mainly due to a visit to the doctor earlier this year, who said Coughlin would die a horrible death in 3-5 years if he didn't stop being such a hardhead.

"The words 'horrible death' really caught my attention," says Coughlin. "Being choked to death by Michael Strahan is not the way I want to leave this earth. So I changed my ways."

New York wins, 31-23. Eli Manning, despite his bad haircut, throws for two touchdowns, and the G-Men sack Jon Kitna five times.

St. Louis @ San Francisco

The 1-8 Rams suck. The 2-7 49ers suck. Together, they sucky-sucky, and, for the right price, they love you long time. I think the going rate is $10 dollars, which will get you any'ting you want, but as always, the price is negotiable. Oh, me so horny.

"What is this?" says Torry Holt. "2 Live Crew stars in Full Metal Jacket? I'd pay to see that, but not this game. We finally got that first win. Technically, we're still capable of making the Super Bowl, which would mark another first — Shannon Sharpe being right about anything. Remember, he picked us to make the Super Bowl in week 1. It's worth the price of free t.v. to see the odd looks Dan Marino and Phil Simms give Sharpe when Shannon 'analyzes.' We call it 'crazy talk.' But enough about that. How 'bout them Rams?"

Great, Torry. Beat the 49ers, and the Rams can match the accomplishments of every other team in the NFC West — a two-game winning streak. Seattle, Arizona, even the 49ers, have all accomplished that feat at some point this year. Heck, win six in a row, and you'll put yourselves in the playoff hunt. Win eight in a row, and you could take the division outright. All you have to do Sunday is outscore the 49ers. And that's way easier done than said.

St. Louis wins, 27-14.

Chicago @ Seattle (-5 1/2)

Rex Grossman's 59-yard touchdown pass to Bernard Berrian led the Bears back from a fourth-quarter deficit in Oakland, and Chicago eventually won, 17-6. It was Grossman's seventh fourth quarter comeback of his career, and first in which he threw the game-winning pass to the right team.

"Hold your applause, folks," says Grossman, "and let's give a hand to the NFL schedule-makers, who flexed their flex-scheduling muscle and bumped our game from the NBC Sunday night slot in favor of the New England/Buffalo game. A Bears/Seahawks tilt isn't fit for a national television audience, unless you get your kicks seeing Shaun Alexander in a skirt shaking his pom-poms on the Seattle sideline. I guess a game between the three-time Super Bowl-winning Patriots against the four-time Super Bowl-losing Bills packs more intrigue that a game between the last two Super Bowl losers, who by the way, are NFC teams. Do I see a pattern here?"

Seattle wins, 22-20. Grossman throws a late pick when he forces a deep throw instead of throwing the ball away into the stands, fearing that "'Seattle's 12th Man' would intercept it."

New England @ Buffalo (+15)

As the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team, the Patriots are surely aware that every opponent the rest of the way will be gunning to knock them off. They also should be aware that behind dark corners, trees, alleys, and the darkly-tinted windows of black sedans lurk members of the 1972 Dolphins.

"Yeah, those guys are easy to spot," says Tom Brady, reviewing film with Giselle on a flat screen monitor mounted on the ceiling above their waterbed filled with Dasani. "The giant egos are always a dead giveaway, as are their limps and their total non-resemblance to football players. I see those guys and I want to buy insurance. And Don Shula's comments have just added more fuel to Coach Belichick's fire."

"I'm a man of few words," says Belichick. "So, on those occasions when my words aren't enough to convey my true feelings, I turn to the men that have, over time, said the words that I've found difficult to express. Hall and Oates. Daryl. John. Take over, will you?"

"Thanks, coach," replies Hall. "This one goes out to all you haters. 'Your dis' is on my list. Your dis' is on my list. Your dis' is on my list. Another blowout's in sight.'"

We know Buffalo can get fired up for a big game. They came out swinging against the Cowboys, but blew it in the end. But that was Dallas. This is New England. The Pats certainly don't want to let a division rival ruin the fun of antagonizing the 1972 Dolphins, who have showered the Bills with gift basket upon gift basket.

"If the Patriots want an undefeated record," says J.P. Losman, they're gonna have to bust in here and seize it like O.J. Simpson."

With Marshawn Lynch possibly out, a miracle win for the Bills falls into the hands of Losman. And he's got very small hands, but big enough for one 80-yard bomb to Lee Evans. New England wins, 38-13.

Tennessee @ Denver (-2)

It's difficult for anyone to keep up with the Jones,' so how on Earth can we expect the NFL to keep up with the Henry's. Denver's Travis and Tennessee's Chris are both facing suspensions for violating the league's drug policy, although both swear on the April 20th issue of High Times magazine that they're clean. Drug tests don't lie. Sources within the league say their tests are nearly 100% accurate, and both Travis' and Chris' tests came up "Amy Winehouse."

"Are you positive?" asks the fidgety Mike Shanahan, who will face the calm and collected Jeff Fisher on Monday. "Travis swore to me he doesn't do drugs. I'll get to the bottom of this. Where's Roc Hoover?"

I'll tell you where he is. He's somewhere on the fictional setting of The Guiding Light, keeping tabs on the whereabouts and shenanigans of certain lusty housewives and philandering husbands. But he's not so busy that he can't take a look into the accuracy of Travis Henry's drug test, or break the leg of a defensive lineman with a questionable block. He's that kind of guy.

"Hey, if Travis Henry can look at this perfectly-crafted square jaw and tell me he's clean," says Hoover, "then I'll believe him. But why should Shanahan be concerned with a running back. All he needs to know is that his kicker is clean, because this game will be decided on the foot of either Jason Elam or Rob Bironas, or possibly Albert Haynesworth. And since when do NFL kickers have time to smoke pot? Whatever the outcome, somebody's getting their boot licked."

Elam gets the game-winner. Broncos win, 18-15.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)

MLB's Fantasy to Monopolize Suffers Blow

On October 16, 2007, Major League Baseball struck out for the second time in its pursuit to limit and essentially monopolize the fantasy league business that utilizes statistical information associated with MLB players' names.

While this did get some coverage in the mainstream press, the ultimate impact of such a decision impacts not only all of the professional sports leagues, but other commercial enterprises which make use of any kind of player statistical information such as the video game and software industries.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit out of St. Louis, MO in handing down a ruling by a three-judge panel was an affirmation of the underlying appeal heard before U.S. District Court Magistrate Judge Mary Ann Medler, also out of St. Louis, and her opinion issued August 8, 2006. In the underlying Summary Judgment, Judge Medler found that "the players do not have a right of publicity in their names and playing records as used in fantasy games." And furthermore, that "the First Amendment takes precedence over such a right."

But offering only a peripheral view of the issues involved in this case does a disservice to fans not only of MLB, but the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, as well as the National Hockey League. In fact, MLB, the NFL, and the NBA all partake in their own fantasy leagues through such commercial ventures run by their league websites MLB.com, NFL.com, and NBA.com, respectively.

The litigation involving MLB Advanced Media, L.P. (MLBAM) as well as the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) originated over 2½ years ago when CBC Distribution and Marketing, Inc. d/b/a CDM, Inc. or CDMSports.com, of St. Louis, MO, filed a lawsuit against MLBAM for the right to operate its CDM Fantasy Sports League with the necessary statistical data on MLB players in order to do so.

But not emphasized thoroughly enough in reports is that from 1994-2004 it was the MLBPA which licensed rights to fantasy leagues. And as such, CBC, which licensed its use of the names and data about MLB players, had agreements in both 1995 and 2002, the latter of which expired in 2005.

CBC was the very first independent fantasy league license holder with MLB, by way of its contract with the MLBPA, well before the Internet played its now predominant role in the fantasy league business, now generating upwards of $2 billion annually from MLB, the NFL, and the NBA alone.

It was in 2005 when MLBAM purchased the exclusive rights to use baseball players' names and performance information from the MLBPA "for exploitation of all interactive media" to the tune of $50 million, for a period of five years. And it was at that point that MLBAM began to provide fantasy baseball games on its own website, MLB.com.

When CBC applied for its license in 2005, it was outright denied by MLBAM due to its claim of the players' "right of publicity" which gave CBC no other recourse but to sue MLBAM in court. CBC saw this as a deliberate attempt by MLBAM to monopolize the fantasy league business now that small operators had turned it into a lucrative investment waiting to be swept up. In fact, in its arrogance, MLB offered CBC in exchange for a commission, a license to promote MLB.com's fantasy baseball games on CBC's website, provided CBC discontinue its own fantasy products.

Additionally, ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Sporting News, and Yahoo! Sports were awarded licenses by MLBAM who pay $2 million annually to MLBAM for the right to run their own fantasy leagues. And it appears rather evident that the issue is not about the "right of publicity," but the right to cash in on and control another entity which MLB has yet to conquer.

Since statistical information had always been considered in the public domain according to prior case law, it was a rather creative leap in legal gymnastics that MLBAM came up with in order to ward off the use of problematic future technologies or entities which could arise and make use of such statistical data.

MLB was joined through amicus briefs, filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, by the NFL, the NHL, the NBA, the NFL Players Association, the PGA Tour, and NASCAR, amongst others. It is clear that there is a big business expectation of windfall profits for such a venture which at one point started out not all that long ago with a bunch of guys sitting around drinking beers talking about forming a rotisserie league for fun.

But lost in all of the legal shenanigans of this litigation is perhaps the message that ensues at its result. And that is that essentially fantasy leagues are a form of gambling. It is more than ironic, given all of the history and more recent threats to the integrity of professional sports, such as officiating in the NBA, which now prohibits any type of gambling amongst its referees year round, and MLB's historic credo of zero tolerance when it comes to gambling on its sport.

The promotion of fantasy leagues by MLB, the NFL, and now the NBA is a distinct conflict of interest. But that did not prevent MLB and the MLBPA from testifying before the U.S. Congress, prior to its passage of the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, in lobbying for fantasy leagues to be exempt from the Act.

Yet, amazingly MLB does not consider fantasy leagues to fall under same the umbrella of gambling since it does not directly "attempt to influence the outcome of a game or a baseball player's performance." MLB went as far as saying that playing in a fantasy league is a game of skill, not of chance such as in a gambling casino, and thereby is not really betting.

Well, in its astute discretion, the U.S. Congress agreed with MLB allowing the continued organized fantasy leagues to remain on the Internet and officially exempt from the 2006 law. But whether or not fantasy leagues have a direct bearing on the outcome of a MLB, NFL, or NBA game, such fantasy leagues both directly and indirectly encourage gambling.

Yet, there is little distinction made in the minds of most participants and onlookers who happen to be the fans. Most associate fantasy leagues as a form of gambling as wagers are made, money is collected and a purse is paid out to the winners. Makes one think how these professional sports leagues and players associations can get away with such nonsensical drivel.

We can only rationalize it to the extent that the leagues are willing to risk such an association with gambling and their sports if there is a buck to be made. And even it is off the backs of small operators who created the whole fantasy league business in the first place.

Next up for MLB is perhaps a second appeal before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit before a nine-judge panel or even an attempt to petition the U.S. Supreme Court, which could either not choose to hear the case or remand it back the District Court. MLB is currently thinking about its next move.

And once again, MLB is trying to control everything baseball, even at the expense of alienating its fans or even worse, to encourage that which it says it will never condone: gambling.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:31 AM | Comments (2)

November 14, 2007

SEC: Overrated or Underappreciated?

There is a conference in college football so good that the 12 teams in it have combined for only five losses out of the 47 out-of-conference games they've played. That's a 42-5 record when facing teams not in their division. No other division even comes close:

The ACC is 31-12.
The Big 12 is 36-11.
The Big Ten is 33-9.
The Pac-10 is 21-9.
The WAC is ... eh, who cares?

In fact, seven teams in this conference have not even lost an out-of-conference game. Only the Big 12 comes close with five teams perfect out of the division.

There is a conference in college football that has outscored opponents nearly 11 points a game in the 102 combined games they've played so far this season. Every team included, from first to 12th.

There is a conference in college football where only one team (Mississippi) has a losing record. All other conferences (aside from the Big 10) have at least two. Most have three, four, or even five.

There is a conference in college football in which the team in ninth place (Arkansas) has posted a 6-4 record overall, a 5-2 record at home, a Heisman trophy candidate and has put up more points than half of the schools in the top 10 of the BCS Standings.

There is a conference in college football where the second-to-worst team (Vanderbilt) doesn't have a losing record, has beaten the only top -10 team they've faced and allowed only 215 points, less than No. 5 Missouri, No. 9 Georgia, No. 12 Florida, No. 13 Texas, No. 20 Tennessee, No. 21 Michigan, No. 23 Kentucky, and No. 25 Wisconsin, nearly a third of all ranked teams in the nation.

And finally, there is conference in college football with the best team in the nation (LSU), another top-10 school (No. 9 Georgia), an additional three ranked teams, (No. 12 Florida, No. 20 Tennessee, and No. 23 Kentucky) and 7-4 Auburn and 6-4 Alabama that have legitimate claims to be ranked.

Before the season, syndicated columnist Dennis Dodd called the SEC "the best league in the country." He went so far as to say the "excellence of the SEC has reached critical mass" and that the "competition is cannibalistic." In any other division, many of these programs would be dominating and making significant noise in the postseason, but because they are all corralled together and have a 12-week season to beat each other up gladiator arena-style, only one or two teams are physically and emotionally able to carry the torch into December and January.

The Southeastern Conference is playing like a man among boys on Saturdays and don't be surprised if it's the SEC that takes home another national championship.

Posted by Ryan Day at 1:00 PM | Comments (3)

November 13, 2007

In the Box: NFL Week 10

The bye weeks are over. Every team has played nine games and has seven left. Two months till the playoffs.

Time to take stock:

Current AFC playoff picture:

1. New England (9-0, AFC East)
2. Pittsburgh (7-2, AFC North; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Colts)
3. Indianapolis (7-2; AFC South)
4. San Diego (5-4; AFC West)
5. Jacksonville (6-3; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Titans)
6. Tennessee (6-3)
7. Buffalo (5-4; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Browns)
8. Cleveland (5-4)
9. Denver (4-5; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Chiefs, Ravens, and Texans)
10. Kansas City (4-5; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Ravens and Texans)

Current NFC playoff picture:

1. Dallas (8-1; NFC East)
2. Green Bay (8-1; NFC North)
3. Tampa Bay (5-4; NFC South)
4. Seattle (5-4; NFC West)
5. Detroit (6-3; wins tie-breaker due to better strength of victory than Giants)
6. NY Giants (6-3)
7. Washington (5-4)
8. Carolina (4-5; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Saints, Bears, Cardinals, and Eagles)
9. New Orleans (4-5; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Bears, Cardinals, and Eagles)
10. Arizona (4-5; wins tie-breaker due to better conference record than Bears and Eagles)

Current top 5 picks in the draft:

1. Miami (9-0)
2-3. Coin flip between St. Louis and NY Jets (both 1-8 with an identical strength of schedule)
4. San Francisco (2-7; wins tie-breaker due to better strength of schedule; Pick owned by New England)
5. Oakland (2-7)

Tie-Breaker Procedures

Check back weekly for updates. With Lions/Giants, Redskins/Cowboys, Browns/Ravens, Chargers/Jaguars, and Titans/Broncos on tap in Week 11, this is drama in motion.

And now the week that was:

San Diego 23, Indianapolis 21: A great game, but not because either team played well. If you missed it:

Darren Sproles runs the opening kickoff back 89 yards for a Chargers touchdown. 7-0.

Peyton Manning pick.

Chargers punt.

Peyton Manning pick.

Chargers field goal. 10-0.

Colts punt. Sproles runs it back 45 yards for a Chargers touchdown. Point-after attempt fails. 16-0.

Peyton Manning pick.

Philip Rivers pick.

Peyton Manning pick.

LaDainian Tomlinson touchdown. 23-0.

Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne touchdown. 23-7.

Chargers punt.

Adam Vinatieri 42-yard FG attempt wide left. Still 23-7.

Halftime.

Second half.

Peyton Manning pick.

Chargers punt.

Peyton Manning to Kenton Keith touchdown. Two-point attempt good. 23-15.

Philip Rivers fumbles. Recovered by Colts for a touchdown. Two-point attempt no good. 23-21.

Chargers punt.

Colts punt.

Philip Rivers pick.

Adam Vinatieri 29-yard field goal attempt for the lead and less than two minutes left ... no good. Still 23-21.

Chargers punt.

Peyton Manning pick.

Handshakes.

Fantasy Impact: You might have been tempted to sit the Chargers defense against the Colts (or Ryan Grant against the Vikings in another example). It's a tough lesson of fantasy: don't over-think the matchups. Sometimes you've got to just throw your best out there and remember why you drafted/picked them up in the first place. (I'm terrible at this.)

Also, Reggie Wayne is the man.

St. Louis 37, New Orleans 29: This game cost me my survivor league, so allow me a moment of vindictiveness:

The Saints could have drafted LB Paul Posluszny (Buffalo), CB Eric Wright (Cleveland) or S Eric Weddle (San Diego) last April. Instead, they took Robert Meachem, who has yet to do anything but be a huge disappointment. Of the seven picks last year, none of them are contributors. Look at the list of Saints' draft picks over the past decade. The only impact players on defense play on a line that, for the most part, got stoned by a patchwork (putting it nicely) Rams o-line. (The four sacks pale in comparison to the number of times Marc Bulger stood in the pocket just waiting for Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce to run open.)

The Rams put up over 400 yards. They converted 8-of-13 third down attempts. They held the ball for almost 40 minutes. It was like Mike Martz skipped out on the Lions to come to St. Louis and call a game for old time's sake. It was ridiculous. Redonkulous even.

Anyway, congrats to the Rams and their fans. A dozen other teams won on Sunday, but none of them enjoyed it as much as these guys.

Fantasy Impact: The only good thing from the Saints on Sunday was the way-too-little-too-late TD passes from Drew Brees. That took the sting off a bit.

Also, Reggie Bush stinks.

Arizona 31, Detroit 21: The Lions had eight rushing attempts for 18 yards. Wait, sorry. It's negative 18 yards. And five turnovers. And four sacks allowed. And really bad special teams.

I guess Martz was with the Lions after all.

Fantasy Impact: Arizona tight end Leonard Pope finally put himself together an NFL game with 5 catches for 52 yards and 2 touchdowns. And now thousands of fantasy football owners will rush to the waiver wire to pick him up. Considering their final seven are @Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland, @Seattle, @New Orleans, Atlanta, and St. Louis, that might actually not be a bad idea.

Green Bay 34, Minnesota 0: The knock on the Packers until now has been the absence of a running game. Knock no more: Green Bay rookie RB Ryan Grant ran for 119 yards on 25 carries on what had been one of the best defenses against the rush in the NFL.

Their game against Dallas in Week 13 could be for home-field advantage in a likely re-match in the NFC Championship Game.

Also, if I'm in the Minnesota front office, I have a team of scouts following Boston College QB Matt Ryan around 24-7. He'd be perfect for this team, and there's a good chance he'll be on the board.

(No. Tarvaris Jackson is not the future.)

Fantasy Impact: Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson is out next week with a torn knee ligament (apparently the good kind, so he shouldn't be out for the year). That means Chester Taylor's long wait to get back in the spotlight is finally over. Let's see what he does with the opportunity.

Jacksonville 28, Tennessee 13: Two points:

1. Vince Young didn't play terribly, but his third quarter interception that led to a Jacksonville TD to make it 21-3 was an absolute killer.

2. With David Garrard back, Jacksonville should be able to hang with anybody (except the Patriots, who have owned them in the Bill Belichick era). It'll be interesting to see how they matchup at Indianapolis (Week 13) and at Pittsburgh (Week 15). Their home game against the Chargers this Sunday could be critical in a tie-breaker situation.

Fantasy Impact: Predicting the Tennessee offense is like predicting which presidential candidate is going to do something dumb next (like plant questions at a Town Hall, perhaps).

Seattle 24, San Francisco 0: I guess you have to give Mike Nolan a mulligan on last night, but that was some weird decision making. He just gave away six points by going for the gusto on fourth downs in Seattle territory. Instead of 17-6, it was 17-0, and you could tell the defense just started losing heart toward the end. The desperation of the tactics cost him severely in a game that, if the 49ers had won, would have left them just one game out of the division lead.

Fantasy Impact: D.J. Hackett is back for the Seahawks (8 receptions for 101 yards and a TD), which gives their offense a whole new dimension. Once Deion Branch comes back, Matt Hasselbeck will have as formidable a 1-2-3 receiver threat as anybody in the NFC.

Philadelphia 33, Washington 25: Talk about your bad decisions. I've been complaining about Joe Gibbs' fourth-quarter strategy all season, so I'll just quote Don Banks of CNNSI (the best football guy on that staff, in my humble opinion):

“The Redskins' play-calling has been mind-boggling at times all season, but they took things to a whole new frustration level with about five minutes remaining in their loss to Philly. Washington had a two-point lead with a first down at the Eagles 7 with 6:39 remaining. A touchdown probably puts the nail in the coffin for Philadelphia, but the Redskins end up running five plays on the rest of the drive, and all five were handoffs to Clinton Portis.”

You know who would be perfect to replace Gibbs? San Francisco defensive coordinator Mike Singletary.

Fantasy Impact: Jason Campbell put together a very fine day (23-of-34 for 215 yards and 3 TD), as did Clinton Portis (30 rushes for 137 yards), but their schedule is about to become a monster: @Dallas, @Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Chicago, @NY Giants, @Minnesota, Dallas. With most fantasy trade deadlines just days away, now might be time to sell high.

Pittsburgh 31, Cleveland 28: Nobody likes a moral victory, but the fact the Browns put 28 on the Steelers in Pittsburgh has to give them confidence going into the stretch run (@Baltimore, Houston, @Arizona, @NY Jets, Buffalo, @Cincinnati, San Francisco).

Meanwhile, the Steelers shouldn't have much problem winning their next three (@NY Jets, Miami, Cincinnati), which would put them at 10-2 going into New England in Week 14.

Fantasy Impact: Jamal Lewis rushing for under three yards per carry doesn't look so good when he doesn't have four touchdowns to go with it.

Dallas 31, NY Giants 20: To everything that's been written on this game, just one additional note: Julius Jones ran harder than Marion Barber.

Fantasy Impact: With the exception of Barber, this was one of those “they are who we thought they were” games. In other words, the stars shined in proportion to their reputations:

Dallas
Tony Romo: 20-of-28 for 247 yards, 4 TD, and 1 INT
Terrell Owens: 6 catches for 125 yards and 2 TD
Patrick Crayton: 5 catches for 66 yards and a TD

New York
Jeremy Shockey: 12 catches for 129 yards and a TD (finally a game that matches his hype)
Brandon Jacobs: 23 rushes for 95 yards
Eli Manning: 23-of-34 for 236 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT

Denver 27, Kansas City 11: If it wasn't for Adrian Peterson, Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe would be the rookie story of the year (9 catches for 105 yards in this one). He's by far the best receiver on the team (not counting Tony Gonzalez), and the switch at QB from Damon Huard to strong-armed Brodie Croyle should give Bowe additional opportunities to stretch the field.

Fantasy Impact: For everybody wishing Travis Henry would just go away, bad news: the Broncos report Henry passed hair and lie detector tests, and the team will now back his fight against a year-long suspension by the NFL. Selvin Young is more than capable of handling the lead job, but with Henry still in the mix, fantasy owners will continue to have to guess every week.

Buffalo 13, Miami 10: Two notes:

1. I'm afraid this is where the Bills' magical ride hits a speed bump. They're 5-4 now, but facing a likely three-game losing streak with New England next Sunday night at home, followed by trips to Jacksonville and Washington.

2. What the hell are the Dolphins waiting for? Put in John Beck and see what happens.

Fantasy Impact: It might have been easy to miss, but Jesse Chatman had a great game (27 rushes for 124 yards, 5 catches for 25 more). Arkansas RB Darren McFadden would be an absolute monster in Cam Cameron's offense.

Cincinnati 21, Baltimore 7: If Ravens fans think it's bad now, check out the rest of the schedule: Cleveland, @San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, @Miami, @Seattle, Pittsburgh. Six of the seven are currently in playoff position, including the three best teams in the NFL. 5-11, here we come. (This is another team who should be making sure Matt Ryan isn't into dog fighting or illegal human trafficking.)

Fantasy Impact: Shayne Graham for MVP!

Chicago 17, Oakland 6: Funny how nobody cares about the Rex Grossman/Brian Griese debate now that the Bears stink. No matter who is under center, Chicago is finishing somewhere between 8-8 and 4-12. Either way, the Super Bowl Loser Curse is alive and well.

Also, I don't get Lane Kiffin. Why isn't he running Dominic Rhodes more? Why isn't he playing JaMarcus Russell? He's got himself a C-, trending toward a D, on his performance in year one.

Fantasy Impact: Bah.

Atlanta 20, Carolina 13: Garbage.

Fantasy Impact: None.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:57 AM | Comments (1)

SoCal Hoops: It's All Love and Mayo

They say the "big man" is a lost art in the sport of basketball. I say, who are "they?" The NBA may only have Shaq, Tim Duncan, and Yao Ming, but one look at the Pac-10 and you would think you were in the land of giants.

All you have to do is look at some of the top teams in the league. Arizona State has Jeff Pendergraph. DeVon Hardin and Ryan Anderson are at Cal. Do not forget about Maarty Leunen at Oregon. You are not seeing double at Stanford, home of twin big men Brook and Robin Lopez. Way up in Seattle, Washington has a big man in Jon Brockman. Oh, and let us not forget the two schools in Los Angeles — Taj Gibson playing the post at Galen Center for USC, and the three-headed monster of Lorenzo Mata, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Kevin Love at UCLA.

So if you feel rumblings and earthquakes up and down the Pacific, it is not seismic activity and those seismologists at Caltech will not be able to help you. Instead, you will get a Richter-scale reading from Dick Vitale, who will probably be watching a lot of Pac-10 games late at night this season. After all, with all these big men in one conference, we should be in store for some epic battles!

With that, just how good will UCLA and USC be this year? After all, both teams had a stellar offseason, with UCLA catching Kevin Love and USC landing O.J. Mayo. No doubt, Southern California will be a hotbed for college basketball this season. Let’s take a look at each school.

UCLA BRUINS

For two years, the only team in the nation that was better than UCLA was Florida. If the Bruins beat Florida just once, perhaps UCLA would have their 12th, maybe 13th national championship. Yet, with so may returning players, and Love already out to a fast start (23 points, 13 rebounds in his debut against Portland), UCLA should make their third consecutive trip to the Final Four — the first team to do that since Michigan State in 2001.

Alas, the Bruins will face stiffer competition in the 2007-08 season — within their own conference, no less. That does not mean that UCLA will not have another solid run this season. In fact, we can see UCLA return to the Final Four for the third straight year, especially with the talent — and coaching — that will be playing in Westwood.

They enter the 2007-08 season ranked second, and tied with Memphis for the longest current streak of being ranked in both polls (40 consecutive weeks).

As with most successful college basketball programs, coaching makes all the difference. UCLA did the right thing in signing Ben Howland to a seven-year contract extension that will keep him at the helm through the 2013-14 season.

Obviously, he is doing something right. Not only did the Bruins reach the Final Four in consecutive years under Howland, they are also ranked No. 1 in various preseason polls. With that, expectations are high this year, and anything less than an appearance in the National Championship Game will be a disappointment.

Of course, UCLA is not a second-ranked team because of Ben Howland. They are the team to beat this year because of the players that Howland recruited.

His biggest recruit may be the biggest prize of them all — big man Kevin Love from Lake Oswego, Oregon. The biggest cap against the Bruins the last two years is their lack of size inside, despite decent big men in Lorenzo Mata and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

Bringing in Kevin Love will fill the void in the paint, and also make up for the loss of Arron Afflalo. He brings a solid low-post game and passing skills that make many point guards look like amateurs.

Speaking of passing skills, Darren Collison, who lead the Pac-10 in assists last season, returns as the floor general. With every other Bruin other than Afflalo returning this year, this maybe a better UCLA team than the previous two that made the Final Four with Afflalo and Jordan Farmar.

The Bruins were 30-6 last season, including a 15-3 mark in Pac-10 play, good enough to win the regular season title. Expect this year’s Bruins to have a similar season, winning between 30 and 32 wins, and a 16-2 record in league play with one loss to Cal (big matchup against Hardin), and another loss to USC.

USC TROJANS

The USC Athletic Department went all out to bring respect to the basketball program. Last season, the Trojans made some noise with a deep tournament run (losing in the Sweet 16). Many expect greater things this season, especially with the return of Taj Gibson and the arrival of O.J. Mayo and Davon Jefferson.

It may be a slow start, what with Gabe Pruitt and Nick Young officially in the NBA. Yet Tim Floyd will have his young team — which finally has star power in Mayo — working hard to top the school-record 25 wins in 2006-2007.

Mayo and Gibson will be the focus of the Trojan offense, and probably the only two players guaranteed a starter job. Gibson was the leading scorer and rebounder for USC last season, and he should have several double-doubles in his junior season.

While USC has a legitimate shot to finish second in the Pac-10 and make a run to the Final Four, there are three major questions for the Trojans:

Who will start? We already know that Mayo and Gibson will start, but the other three spots — one guard and two forwards — are still to be determined. Daniel Hackett will probably get the other guard spot, but that is not a lock. With some many players in the sophomore season, Floyd may need about 10 games to determine who will be in his starting five.

Inexperienced? The Trojans only have two upperclassmen and seven freshmen. If the Trojans do not make the Final Four, it will be because of lack of experience. Then again, in an age of "one-and-done," how many teams actually have an "experienced" roster, besides UCLA?

What about defense? Gabe Pruitt was the Trojan defensive-stopper last season. With such a young team, who will step up on defense this year, especially with the size that dominated the nation’s top conference (which USC happens to belong to). If the Trojans cannot play defense, they can kiss away any hopes they have of another deep tournament run, even with Mayo.

Nonetheless, expect the Trojans to be a top-three team in the Pac-10, competing with Cal for second-place honors behind UCLA. Another 25-win season is definitely a possibility, but with a tough non-conference schedule, most of those wins would have to come in league play — at least 14 wins in Pac-10 play if they really want to make any noise this year. It is very possible that USC beats UCLA once this season, probably at Galen Center.

Unlike college football, Los Angeles will actually experience one of the best college basketball season’s ever if both UCLA and USC plays to expectations; just do not fill-in UCLA and USC in the National Championship Game of your brackets.

Posted by Parimal Rohit at 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

Who's Number One in Ottawa?

The Ottawa Senators didn't anticipate Ray Emery's three-year, $9.5 million contract to yield dividends in the form of 11 wins against one loss by Martin Gerber. Emery's expensive status as the Sens' number one goaltender is weakening, at least currently. Eight years Gerber's junior, Emery is tremendously athletic, possesses invaluable playoff experience, and has displayed his occasional enjoyment of dropping the gloves with anyone. He should be a legitimate net minder for the foreseeable future. But Gerber's stellar start and Emery's shaky play after offseason wrist surgery have forced Ottawa head coach John Paddock to address the inevitable: who's number one?

For now, it's Gerber's position to lose. His 11 wins are the most thus far; his .943 save percentage is fourth best in the league and his 1.73 goals against average (GAA) sixth best. Since December of last year, Gerber's flexing a 21-1-2 record, 1.92 GAA, and .934 save percentage. The Sens have left nothing to speculation, forcibly exerting their indomitable style on even well prepared opponents — and this without top-line center Jason Spezza for the last six games. And Gerber has been absolutely crucial to their success. His hot streak was best displayed during a November 10th win over divisional foe Montreal. Led by captain Saku Koivu, the Canadians pounded the Sens until Ottawa captain Daniel Alfredsson buried two goals late in the game to win it 3-1. Gerber kept them in it. Emery watched from the bench.

This presents a historical conundrum that has preoccupied NHL coaches for years: when your starter goes down, and the backup grossly exceeds expectations, who plays when both are again healthy? Some coaches continue relying on the backup-turned-starter while others immediately reinsert the number one. Much like a quarterback in football, a goalie is a hockey team's pivot — playing the entire 60 minutes, it's the lone position around which most of the game revolves. And much like hockey, football coaches are faced with similar predicaments when their first-string QB returns from injury to a team that succeeded in his absence. (University of Michigan chose to start Chad Henne after he recovered from an injury earlier this college football season.)

But the Senators' position is mitigated by Emery's poor performance. The Sens were riding an eight-game winning streak — a team record — until the Washington Capitals squashed them in Ottawa on November 9th. Emery made his third start, giving up four goals on 35 shots. (Emery is 3-3-0 in six career games against the Caps.) He hadn't played since Thursday of the previous week when, although earning a victory, he allowed four goals to the on-fire Atlanta Thrashers. In his three meager appearances this year, Emery is 2-1-0 and his numbers revealing: a 3.00 GAA and .895 save percentage.

Emery's injury and performance aren't the only factors affecting his limited number of starts. Recent reports reveal Paddock's dissatisfaction with Emery's lackluster practice and workout habits. Paddock is clearly aggravated by his entire team's sub par workout routines. "[Emery's] not the only player practicing like you might not like, let's put it that way, so he's no different than other guys," the coach remarked. Emery may just be one of the guys, but this trend is alarming considering the money Ottawa showered over him to be the number one. Gerber's reputation as one of the hardest working players on the roster certainly works to Emery's disadvantage.

Ray Emery was tailored to be the Sens' top goaltender, from the contract extension to the hiring of his offseason goalie coach (Eli Wilson). And he played like it last year. But now Martin Gerber is playing like it's his team. (However, it's worth noting that most teams wouldn't mind having to choose between these two top-tier goalies. That's something Ottawa GM Bryan Murray is cognizant of, "you have a chance to win every night with either one of them.") Ironically, it was Emery who excelled in the face of Gerber's slump this time last season.

Good things come to those who wait, the adage goes. Gerber has waited in silence for a chance to reclaim the number one spot. It appears that Paddock and company are wisely sticking with Gerber — careful not to tweak the chemistry responsible for the Senators' nearly flawless start. If it continues, Emery might want to make himself comfortable at the end of the bench, and start counting the 9.5 million reasons he has to work his way back to the front of the Ottawa net.

Posted by Jeff DiNunzio at 11:18 AM | Comments (0)

November 12, 2007

NFL 2007 Midseason Report Card

New England Patriots: A+

The Patriots look unstoppable. Their Week 9 matchup against the Colts was the only time this season that the Pats even looked like they were playing another NFL team. In New England's other games, it's been more like watching an NFL team play Temple. Are the Patriots beatable? Yes. Does anyone besides the Colts have a good chance against them? No.

Indianapolis Colts: A

I'm not going to dock them for the Sunday night loss in San Diego. This is obviously the league's second-best team, and it won't have another game all season with six interceptions and two return TDs given up. The worry here has to be injuries. The Colts played 20 games last season, and it seems like a lot of the players were worn down by that. In particular, the coaches need to be careful with Joseph Addai's workload. The second-year RB has clearly established himself as an elite player in this league, but if Tony Dungy gives him 400 touches, Addai will break down, and the Colts need him healthy for the playoffs. Indianapolis doesn't have any other capable runners on the roster, so there's no one to split the workload with Addai in games against other good teams like the Patriots, but the Colts may want to consider signing Corey Dillon for help down the stretch.

Dallas Cowboys: A

I see them just below the Colts. Although the Cowboys didn't challenge New England the way Indianapolis did, they're 8-1, with the only loss coming against the Pats. The Cowboys have the best point differential in the NFC (+101) and they're coming off a big win against the Giants — one that broke New York's six-game winning streak and gave the Cowboys a commanding lead in the competitive NFC East. If Tony Romo plays this well all season, there's reason to expect that we'll see the Cowboys at Texas Stadium in the NFC Championship Game.

Pittsburgh Steelers: A-

They're 7-2, they have a commanding lead in the tough AFC North, and they're playing lights-out on both sides of the ball. They have puzzling losses to the Cardinals and Broncos, but Patriot-haters and fans of the '72 Dolphins are holding out hope that Pittsburgh — which on its best days looks like an elite team — may be able to take down New England. Don't count on that, but don't count out a team that is very similar to the one we saw in Super Bowl XL. The health of star players — Big Ben, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, and Troy Polamalu all come to mind — is a major factor here.

Green Bay Packers: A-

The Packers, at 8-1, clearly are among the top teams in the NFL, but they don't seem to have excited people the way the teams above have done. Why not? No one's in New England's league, of course, but don't the Packers deserve to be taken just as seriously as the Cowboys or Steelers? I do think Sunday's blowout of the Vikings was a statement game for Green Bay, and if they stay perfect after a Thanksgiving game in Detroit, a potential matchup of two 10-1 teams when the Pack travels to Dallas could draw almost as big an audience as Colts/Pats did in Week 9.

Jacksonville Jaguars: A-

At 6-3 and with a killer schedule remaining, they won't finish the year with a record like my other A-rated teams. They might even miss the playoffs if David Garrard doesn't come back 100%. But with Garrard under center, the Jags went 4-1 and looked like potential contenders (in any year when New England wasn't crushing everything in its path, anyway). Even with Quinn Gray at QB, Jacksonville is 2-2 against a killer schedule that started with the Colts, followed by three straight road games against good teams. Anyone can tell you about the Pats, Colts, Steelers, and Chargers. And even though you're nuts to bet on anyone other than New England (and maybe Indy) at this point, if you really want a sleeper, look here.

Tennessee Titans: B+

Winning ugly. The Titans are 6-3, tied with Jacksonville for the fourth-best record in the AFC, behind only the big three of New England, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh. They've beaten the Jaguars and Saints, and played the Colts tough in Nashville. They're doing it with great defense (second in the NFL in yards allowed, sixth in points allowed) and a good running game. But Vince Young cannot throw the ball. He has five passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a worse passer rating than Cleo Lemon. Young is a good runner, and he's a leader, but the Titans can't get higher than B+ unless his passing improves. I know the Titans don't have a lot of targets for him to throw to, but teams that can't pass can't make comebacks, and even good teams fall behind sometimes. The lack of passing game is starting to make things tough for LenDale White, too.

New York Giants: B+

Swept by Dallas, and they're not in the same league — or at least not the same letter grade — as the Cowboys right now, but they're clearly an elite team in the NFC. The defense has made great strides, and Brandon Jacobs looks like a capable running back behind that offensive line, but Eli Manning remains a problem. He's having the best season of his pro career, but that's not saying much at this point. With the talent surrounding him, Little Manning has no excuse for a worse passer rating than Joey Harrington. A partial list of quarterbacks who have more yards and a better rating includes: much-maligned Donovan McNabb and his talent-less wide receiver corps; Carson Palmer and his 3-6 Bengals; Derek Anderson, who began the year as a backup to Charlie Frye; and Jay Cutler, whose receiving corps has been crippled by injuries. If the Giants are going to take the next step, Little Manning needs to take his.

Detroit Lions: B+

They get a B+ not only for their unlikely 6-3 record, but for exceeding expectations. Everyone knew a passing game with Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, and Calvin Johnson was going to be pretty good, and the Lions are eighth in in the NFL in passing yards, with Kitna also eighth in passer rating. What's surprising is the defense. The Lions have been giving up a ton of yardage, and with their high-powered offense that's not shocking, but Detroit has been coming up with turnovers at an amazing rate, leading the NFL in — get ready — interceptions, forced fumbles, and fumble recoveries. This year's Lions remind me of the 2005 Cincinnati Bengals, using turnovers and a great passing game to make huge strides.

Cleveland Browns: B+

After their ugly Week 1 loss to the Steelers, it was tempting to dismiss the Browns as non-factors, maybe even the worst team in the league. But new QB Derek Anderson has sparked a 5-3 run, starting with a 51-point explosion in the Week 2 win over Cincinnati, and continuing through Sunday's loss at Pittsburgh. It's not often that a loss says good things about a team. Indy's loss to the Patriots was an example, though. So was this game against the Steelers. Pittsburgh embarrassed the Browns in Week 1. On Sunday, the Browns went into Pittsburgh, trading touchdowns with the Steelers all game, and ran out of time with a three-point loss. That speaks to how far Cleveland has come in half a season, and it shows that the Browns can compete with an elite team.

San Diego Chargers: B+

This is a tough one. 5-4 in the AFC is B/B+ territory, but the Chargers are clearly more than a 5-4 team. They 've looked very impressive in four of the last five games, beating the Colts after their embarrassing loss to Adrian Peterson, and pounding the Broncos, Raiders, and Texans by a combined score of 104-27. The Chargers have a ton of talent on the roster, and it's tempting to think they haven't played their best football of the 2007 season. That probably makes them more like an A-. At the same time, it's arguable that no team has been more disappointing this season. San Diego entered this season with Super Bowl aspirations and a chip on its shoulder, and it's played like, well, about a B+. That's not bad, but it's not what you expect from an A student.

Buffalo Bills: B

Don't look now, but the Bills have won four in a row. Granted, wins over teams with a combined record of 8-28 is hardly awe-inspiring, but since their hearth-wrenching Week 1 loss to the Broncos, the Bills haven't had any let-downs. They've lost to powerhouses like the Steelers and Patriots, but they nearly upset Dallas on "Monday Night Football," and they're winning all the games they're supposed to. Marshawn Lynch is the real deal, the opportunistic defense has 12 interceptions, and their special teams may be the best in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B

A pretty solid 5-4. In their last four games, the Bucs have won close games against Tennessee and Arizona, with close losses to Detroit and Jacksonville. Jeff Garcia is having a great season, the defense is the best it's looked since their Super Bowl year, and the make-shift running game led by Earnest Graham has been good enough. The Saints' recent 4-1 surge should have them worried, but the Buccaneers have a forgiving schedule down the stretch, and they have to like their chances of earning a wild card or winning their division outright.

Washington Redskins: B

The defense has done good things, with LaRon Landry, Fred Smoot, and a healthy Shawn Springs boosting a secondary that was among the league's worst last season — but injuries are becoming a potential problem again, with Sean Taylor and Smoot joining starting cornerback Carlos Rogers among the injured. The offensive line has battled through injuries with little apparent problem, and the running game seems to have gotten on track, but Jason Campbell is not making plays the way he needs to. Antwaan Randle El is having a breakout season, but Campbell — despite terrific arm strength — has problems with his accuracy on long throws, and it's limiting Washington's opportunities in the passing game. If this team can stay healthy and get consistent quarterback play, it has the potential to be very competitive in the NFC. Unfortunately for Washington, right now those are both big ifs.

Kansas City Chiefs: B-

They're a strong B-, because after an ugly 0-2 start that made Kansas City look like one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Chiefs have rebounded. Pro Bowl DE Jared Allen returned from suspension and immediately turned in a great performance to lead his team over Minnesota: 8 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and 2 pass deflections. With Allen in the lineup, the Chiefs are a solid 4-3, including a win at San Diego and a tough, competitive loss to the 8-1 Packers. The problem, believe it or not, is the running game. Kansas City is 31st in both rushing yards and rushing average. Damon Huard's injury this weekend also means we could be looking at the beginning of the Brodie Croyle Era in KC. If Croyle plays well or Huard comes back strong, the Chiefs could make a run at the division title in the pitiful AFC West.

New Orleans Saints: B-

I don't understand how teams like the Chargers and Saints can get on such great winning streaks, then lose in the most embarrassing fashion possible. The Chargers win three straight blowouts, then give up the single-game rushing record against Minnesota. The Saints win four in a row and then lose to the 0-8 Rams. Staggering inconsistency aside, the Saints clearly have the potential to go toe-to-toe with the NFC's best, and if they can avoid pitfalls like the one they experienced against St. Louis, last year's NFC South champs have to like their chances of repeating.

Seattle Seahawks: B-

I feel compelled to give them some sort of B since they're winning their division and will probably beat San Francisco to improve to 5-4 on Monday night, but that's the last nice thing I have to say about this mediocre squad. They've lost three of their last four, with the win against St. Louis. Shaun Alexander is averaging 3.3 yards per carry. They haven't beaten a team that currently has a winning record since Week 1. And if the Cardinals win in Seattle in Week 14, the Seahawks might not even win the NFC West, which is the NFL's equivalent of the Western Athletic Conference. Without Boise State and Hawaii.

Arizona Cardinals: B-

Maddeningly inconsistent. They've beaten the Steelers and Lions, who are a combined 13-3 against other teams. They've lost to the 49ers and Panthers, who are a combined 4-11 against other teams. They've used three different quarterbacks on purpose (mostly). But the defense is playing well, and their schedule makes them legitimate playoff contenders in the WAC/NFC West. Plus, they're the Cardinals, and that makes 4-5 look pretty good.

Houston Texans: B-

I don't know if it's Gary Kubiak or the legendary quarterback tandem of Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels, but a strong passing game has Houston's offense performing well this year. Fortunately for those of us who value consistency, the defense remembers that they're the Texans, and Ron Dayne leads the team in rushing. Houston is definitely showing some improvement, but the team has the misfortune of sharing a division with the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans.

Denver Broncos: B-

I don't really think the Broncos and Ravens deserve a B-. They seem more like C+ to me, but I'm trying to avoid bias, and here's my rationale. The Seahawks, as 4-4 (maybe 5-4 by the time you read this) division-leaders, merit some sort of B. The Cardinals, who are exceeding expectations while the Seahawks fall short of them, deserve the same grade as Seattle. And there is absolutely no way that an AFC team is worse than an NFC West team with the same record. Also, the Broncos beat Pittsburgh.

Baltimore Ravens: B-

I caught some of their loss to Cincinnati in Week 10, and I live in a television market that allows me to see a lot of the AFC North. Steve McNair was a legitimately great quarterback at the beginning of this decade. From 2001-03, I'm not sure there was a better QB in the NFL. You could make a decent case for Tom Brady or Donovan McNabb or Brett Favre, and you can make a very strong case for Peyton Manning, but even if you think all of those guys were better — which probably isn't true — that's still pretty elite company. Now, though, McNair's physical skills have noticeably declined. In addition to lesser passing performances, McNair has gotten slow. This is a quarterback who twice ran for eight touchdowns in a season, who five times exceeded 400 yards on the ground, who has more career rushing yards than Julius Jones. Kyle Boller is not John Unitas waiting on the bench, and a quarterback change won't make the Ravens' offense look like the Colts, but Boller has developed into a steady, serviceable player, and the Ravens have nothing to lose by trying to jump-start their anemic offense with a quarterback change.

Philadelphia Eagles: C+

The bench-Donovan talk is absurd. When he's healthy, Donovan McNabb is among the top half-dozen quarterbacks in the league. At this time last season, he was the front-runner to win NFL MVP. But if the Eagles don't give him more weapons, McNabb won't be able to produce consistently. Brian Westbrook is phenomenal, and there are some good players on Philadelphia's offensive line. But the defense can't carry this team any more, and there are just no weapons in Philly's receiving corps. McNabb doesn't need a high-priced, Hall of Fame talent to throw to. Last year, he looked great working with Donte Stallworth, who's certainly a good receiver, but shouldn't be irreplaceable. The Eagles are doing their fans, and especially their quarterback, a disservice by not surrounding McNabb with the talent he needs to succeed.

Chicago Bears: C+

Cedric Benson is averaging three yards per carry. Brian Griese has a passer rating of 77.1. Rex Grossman has a rating of 53.9. Kick returner Devin Hester leads the team in touchdowns. The defense is not dominating opponents this season, but it's good enough that with a decent offense, the Bears could probably repeat as NFC champs. Unfortunately, the offense is a mess. It needs a new QB, a new running back, new wide receivers, and an overhaul on the offensive line. Barring a miracle turnaround from Grossman or Griese, I don't expect this team to be seriously competitive for years.

Carolina Panthers: C+

Three straight losses after a 4-2 start. The Colts and Titans, you don't really expect them to beat, but a loss at home to the Falcons stings. Quarterback play is the obvious problem, with rookie Matt Moore the fourth QB the Panthers have used this season, and when 800-year-old Vinny Testaverde isn't even your last option, the situation is clearly pretty dire. The rushing game, still led by DeShaun Foster, but also energized by DeAngelo Williams, has been good. The defense has been fine. The passing game should involve more throwing to Steve Smith and less of everything else. A radical idea, and complicated to implement, but if Moore can't handle that kind of duty — "Just look for No. 89, Matt" — the Panthers should sign Jeff George, or sign Boomer Esiason and finally get those guys on CBS to shut up.

Cincinnati Bengals: C

The Bengals, who have no running game and the worst defense in the NFL, are 3-6 on the strength of a terrific passing attack led by Carson Palmer and WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson. The return of suspended Chris Henry could provide a major boost, as well. My warning to the Bengals is this: do not even think about firing Marvin Lewis. If you do, the Ravens will can Brian Billick and hire Lewis as their new head coach and you will regret it for ever and ever.

Minnesota Vikings: C

There is only one thing the Vikings should be concerned with right now, and that is the health of Adrian Peterson. This is a guy who had some injury problems in college, and now he's facing NFL defenders in a 16-game season. It's tempting to overwork Peterson, because he's such a phenomenal talent, and the Vikings really have no other weapons on offense. But giving Peterson too many touches will turn him into Cadillac Williams: a talented player whose coaches overworked him into an injury-prone runner who's never been the same as he was as a rookie. If Peterson's season ended with his knee injury against the Packers, he would rank second in NFL history in single-season rushing average, less than 1/100 of a yard behind Jim Brown's 1963 season. But it would be a great shame if we don't get to see a healthy, 100% Peterson for years to come. The Vikings aren't going anywhere this season, with Peterson or without him. They need to keep their star runner healthy so they can build around him for the future, and Minnesota's owners and management need to make clear to Brad Childress and his coaching staff that they'll be judged on the way Peterson is handled, rather than strictly on this year's record.

Atlanta Falcons: C-

They've won two games in a row, and Harrington is having the best season of his career. I know that's not saying much — it's barely saying anything — but Harrington is actually playing pretty well. In an offense with no real weapons, Harrington has been surprisingly effective, even for someone who isn't Joey Harrington. Alge Crumpler and the running backs are okay, but the Atlanta offense has no Pro Bowl talent this season, and the wide receiving corps stinks. Harrington has a better passer rating with this offense than Michael Vick or Matt Schaub did last season, and for a team given up for dead after Vick's offseason drama, the Falcons have actually exceeded expectations.

Oakland Raiders: C-

No one likes being 2-7, but expectations weren't very high for this team, and they've lived up to what we expected. With injuries and an ill-advised holdout necessitating an unproductive rotating door under center, the Raiders have turned to the ground game and actually rank fifth in rushing offense, with good production from both LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas. The forgotten man in the rush attack is Dominic Rhodes, and I suspect that he and the Colts miss each other a great deal right now. What the Raiders don't have this year is the dominant defense we saw at the end of last season. But you have to figure that with enough high draft picks, Oakland will put together a solid foundation for another run.

San Francisco 49ers: D

Few teams have been more disappointing this season. I don't think many people considered San Francisco a serious contender at the league level, but they were widely expected to contend for a division title, and after starting 2-0, the Niners have dropped six consecutive games. They went 0-3 with Trent Dilfer at quarterback, but Alex Smith has fewer passing TDs than Dilfer, twice as many interceptions as touchdowns, and a passer rating of 57.6. For reference, let's compare that to Vince Young (62.2), Steve McNair (73.9), Brian Griese (77.1), Joey Harrington (81.0), Kurt Warner (86.2), Chad Pennington (87.5), and Tom Brady (131.8). The 49ers miss Norv Turner as much as the Chargers miss Marty Schottenheimer and Wade Phillips, and there just isn't a lot of healthy talent on this roster right now. The team made some good moves in the offseason, but it's going to take longer than that to build a contender.

New York Jets: D

They should be better than 1-8. All the close games the Jets won last season, they're losing this year. Five of their eight losses have come by a touchdown or less, and the only real blowout was a Week 1 meeting with the Patriots. But the Jets just aren't getting anything done, on offense or defense. When the defense has a good game, the offense can't score. When the offense plays well, the defense gets routed. They say that close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades, and right now the Jets are getting hammered on and blown up.

St. Louis Rams: D

Got their first win of the season with an upset of New Orleans, but there's potential here. I've considered the Rams to be the NFL's worst team for most of the season, and there were periods when they looked incapable of beating anyone. But Steven Jackson's return changes everything for this offense. With Torry Holt and Jackson on the field, St. Louis has weapons its opponents have to respect, and will have difficulty neutralizing. Jackson doesn't make the Rams a playoff team, but he makes them a real NFL team again, restoring some dignity to this franchise's 2007 campaign.

Miami Dolphins: F

We all know they're re-building. The Chris Chambers trade and the increased practice reps for John Beck make that clear. But injuries, age, and a dearth of new talent have ravaged the once-proud Miami defense, and the offense simply can't get anything going. A great quarterback is not a precondition for success in the NFL, but a decent one is. We'll learn soon what Beck has to offer the Dolphins, but at the midpoint of this season, it's difficult to imagine many ways the Dolphins could be worse. I don't think they'll go 0-16, however, and you'd like to hope that things can only get better from here.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:48 AM | Comments (1)

Who'd You Rather?

Kobe or LeBron? LeBron or Kobe? The debate over who you'd rather have on your team right now is a less sexual version of the "who'd you rather?" game. Unless you're an NBA GM or Matthew McConaughey, those debates are for entertainment purposes only. You can come up with a lot of valid reasons to chose either side and be happy with your decision. The fact is, though, that at the end of the day if you have either you can't go wrong.

The Kobe/LeBron debate is easy because there is no wrong answer (unless you pick LeBron). Unlike its more adult counterpart, however, sometimes there are wrong answers to the NBA version of the "who'd you rather?" game. And since hindsight is 20/20, here is a look back at some of the GMs who played the "who'd you rather?" game and the success they've had (or haven't had).

Tyson Chandler or Ben Wallace?

Perhaps someone can explain the logic behind this one. Chandler is a better rebounder, better offensive player, better free throw shooter, and better teammate. Chandler is eight years younger and makes half of what Wallace makes. The year before the Bulls traded Chandler, he averaged 5.3 points and 9.0 rebounds in 26.8 minutes. He shot 56% from the field and 50% from the line. This year, Wallace is averaging 3.5 points and 4.8 rebounds per game in 26.7 minutes. He is shooting 32% from the field and 27% from the line. In the Bulls only win this season, Ben never got off the bench in the fourth quarter as his new team defeated his old team, the Pistons, without him.

Basically, the Bulls had better production from the player they had and decided, "Let's trade him and then pay someone double to do the exact same thing. Then, to be safe, we'll draft two players who play the exact same position the exact same way with our next two first round draft picks."

As Jason Bateman's character from "Dodgeball" would say, "It's an interesting strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it works out for them."

Deron Williams or Chris Paul?

Utah got this one right. I love Chris Paul's game, but Williams is the better fit for Utah. Williams is suited perfectly to play the pick and roll game and hit open jumpers like he does in Utah. Paul's game is to constantly put pressure on the defense and distribute accordingly, and he does it better than anyone besides Steve Nash right now, but it isn't Jerry Sloan basketball. Utah had the foresight to take the player that would work best in their system and it has already paid off in a big way.

Maybe Paul would have been able to run the team just as well and take them just as far, but the Jazz have the luxury of never having to find out.

Greg Oden or Kevin Durant?

I have to admit, Durant's numbers are way better than Oden's to this point. Seriously, though, I hope this debate doesn't come up for at least three years. It's clear that neither of these teams were one player away and that this season isn't going to determine who got the better of the deal. Neither will next year as the teams try to build pieces around them. Unless one player takes his team deep into the playoffs in the next two years, which doesn't seem likely, it'll be at least the '09-'10 season before you can start to pass judgment.

Until then, I'm just going to enjoy watching a young Durant not even think about the phase "good shot selection" and wait patiently for him to catch fire and set the single game rookie scoring record while simultaneously convincing myself that Oden will return from microfracture surgery good as new.

Jason Kidd/Jermaine O'Neal/Kevin Garnett and Kobe or No Kobe?

Essentially, that's what the Lakers had to decide last season. They opted to stay with Andrew Bynum and what's left of Lamar Odom when he's healthy and alienate Kobe as opposed to putting another good player around the best player in the world during his prime. Now Mitch Kupchak gets the distinct honor of trading two of the top five players to ever play, in their prime, and not win another title during his tenure.

Even if landing one of those three players didn't make the Lakers a contender last season, they could have spent the next two offseasons adding role players to the mix and building a winner. Instead, they now find themselves shopping around a player they can't possibly get equal value for and have to start from scratch.

An NBA title or any semblance of a future?

The Miami heat found themselves in this very predicament and opted not to go with the latter. They traded for Shaq, knowing he couldn't have had more than two or possibly three seasons left at a high level. Still, they rolled the dice, caught the perfect storm, and won a title.

Now they have a team of outcasts and misfits playing beside wheelchair basketball champion Dwyane Wade and 35-year-old Shaq, who at this point looks like a poor man's Adonal Foyle. Shaq is on the books for another three years at $20 million per. The lottery had better be kind to the Heat the next few years, or it could be a long road to recovery in South Beach.

Posted by Scott Shepherd at 11:44 AM | Comments (0)

November 10, 2007

The Case For Lindros

It's not often that ice hockey is elevated to a Shakespearean stratum; the closest the NHL comes to that literally loftiness is the comedy of errors that are the Maple Leafs and the VERSUS studio show, which is typically much ado about nothing.

But a few years ago — to the utter amazement and dismay of the dedicated puckheads within ear-shot — Rose Solari, senior editor emeritus of SportsFan Magazine, likened the lamentable Eric Lindros to Hamlet, the tragic prince in the Bard's most celebrated work. She later wrote about it in SFM:

"Eric Lindros, with his tragic parental issues and mysterious, grief-stricken gaze, is the Hamlet of the NHL."

Uncomfortable Oedipal connotations aside, I think Rose was ahead of the curve on this one. Having surveyed the Mainstream Hockey Media reaction to Lindros's formal retirement from the NHL this week, I think his role as a tragic figure is being cast rather emphatically; that he's one of the greatest pure talents in hockey history, but one that was humbled by expectations and injury.

Never mind that he's screwed over more teams than an NHL schedule-maker. Never mind that he alienated teammates, coaches, general managers, and his own fans with behavior that was rebellious to his apologists, but self-destructive to the realists. Never mind that the majority of his injuries were his own damn fault because he thought he could bull through professional competitors like he did teenagers in the juniors — unfortunately, it's a little harder to skate through the middle of the ice with your head down when it's Scott Stevens instead of a pimply-faced kid coming at you at full speed.

If you're sensing that I feel Lindros is more responsible for his own terrible reputation and low approval ratings than any of these "tragic figure" revisionists give him credit for, give yourself a gold star.

But if you're assuming that I feel he doesn't belong in the Hockey Hall of Fame, you may not be totally correct.

The case can be made for Lindros, but it depends on some very specific conditions and some emotional detachment. Consider:

THE KOUFAX ARGUMENT: Lindros was, for my money, the most dominating player for a stretch of the 1990s. Maybe not statistically, but that's hard to measure in a dead-puck era. Watching him play was like watching someone who could physically dominate a game yet had the deft offensive touch of Dan Mario.

I think that era ended officially in 2002 with the Rangers. He wasn't the same player after that year, and in the end he was a passive and nearly invisible presence due to his injuries.

Arthritis claimed the career of Sandy Koufax too early, much like concussions turned Lindros into a journeyman. And Koufax is in the Hall of Fame despite not having the longevity of his peers. I think an argument can be made that Lindros's healthy (such a relative term) years should be weighed more heavily than his final whimper of a curtain call.

THE NUMBERS GAME: The most impressive statistic of Lindros's career is his points-per-game average. Mike Brophy of The Hockey News said that Lindros ranks 17th in NHL history with 1.14 ppg, and that every retired player ranked ahead of him, save for Kent Nilsson and Steve Yzerman, is in the Hall. (And Stevie Y is a shoe-in.)

IT'S THE "HOCKEY" HALL OF FAME: If his NHL credentials aren't enough, keep in mind that international play gets factored into the HOF debate. That means four World Junior Championships appearances, gold in the Canada Cup, gold and silver in the Olympics and some other significant international play are in Lindros's favor.

THE SLIPPERY SLOPE OF STANDARDS: One argument I read from several journalists this week was that the Hockey Hall of Fame has enshrined players that aren't in Lindros's class. I'm not someone who believes hockey's Hall has the regrettably low standards of Cooperstown ... but if Cam Neely's in, shouldn't Lindros be in?

As you can see, arguments can be made for Lindros's place in immortality. But each one is soaked in the controversies and drama that anchored No. 88 down throughout his career, causing him to fail to reach his potential. For many voters, pundits and fans, dropping that baggage from the debate is impossible.

In the end, some will see Eric Lindros as Shakespearean; others will just see a tragedy.

Greg Wyshynski is also a weekly columnist for SportsFan Magazine. His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 11:12 AM | Comments (0)

November 8, 2007

In Praise of the Quarterback Sneak

Longtime readers of this column know that I am a fan of the Montreal Alouettes. They have an interesting play in their arsenal.

Every time they have less than a yard to go for a first down, they bring in backup quarterback Marcus Brady. He plunges forward for the first down, and returns to his seat on the bench.

I've seen them do this dozens of times the last couple of years. The play never fails, and they never, ever get cute with it. Brady always stays between the tackles — between the guards, as a matter of fact.

Since they are using a particular player for this gambit, and they never get fancy with it, it pretty much means even the defense knows what's coming. And yet, they can't stop Brady from gaining two feet.

Don't get me wrong, I don't always mind when teams do get cute with 4th-and-short from time to time. Ohio State preserved their 2002 national championship season by completing a touchdown bomb on 4th-and-short. I seem to recall Texas beating Nebraska during Nebraska's dominant era that way, as well.

What I don't understand, though, is when teams will hand off to a running back and let him run up the gut and try to get the first down.

I think the reason Montreal's Brady play always works (and I mean always) is not because Montreal has some sort of invincible o-line. It's because they get the first push. It's often said that playing defense if tougher than playing offense, because the defense is forced to react to the offense. The offense knows what it's gonna try to do.

Even if going up against a bigger, stronger, defensive line, being in sync on the snap count gives Montreal a split second advantage with their surge — all they need to pick up fourth and inches.

You hand it off, though, and that advantage goes away. The offensive line has to beat the d-line straight up, and now blitzing corners and linebackers come into play, as do the disastrous prospects of missed assignments. All of these possibilities are inapplicable to a QB sneak.

And if (like Montreal) your quarterback is too much of a stiff or too precious to the coaching staff to send up the middle, let the running back, or whomever, take the snap directly.

I feel strongly about this. I get the luxury of knowing one of my favorite football teams will always convert on 4th-and-inches, and frustrated seeing the rest of my favorite teams (and the rest of the football world) not getting the memo.

Speaking of memos, my memo on Charlie Weis is that he's not the coach Tyrone Willingham was, and I say that knowing Willingham just picked up his first Pac-10 win last week. When people pointed out the similarities in the record and accomplishments of Willingham's first two seasons with Weis's, Notre Dame fans responded by digging up stats and figures demonstrating the superiority of Weis.

I agree that now, there's no comparing Weis and Willingham. Willingham didn't lose to Navy and went 6-5 in his third (and final) season.

There was quite an uproar at Notre Dame's quick trigger finger with Willingham. This is Weis's third season, so he's surely gone after this season, right? Right?! If not, then Notre Dame deserves even more of the stratospheric levels hatred and vitriol then they receive now.

I bring this up now because Notre Dame's loss to Navy was due to frankly poor coaching decisions. NBC showed some interesting side-by-side shots of the Notre Dame players against their Navy counterparts, and it was clear the Irish had a huge size advantage, particularly in their receiving corps against Navy's secondary. It goes without saying that Navy has no blue chip recruits. These are the reasons Notre Dame had beaten Navy 43 straight times.

Yet not only did Weis send in an ill-advised first quarter fake field goal on 4th-and-15, but with 45 seconds left, he chose to go for it on 4th-and-8 from the Navy 28 with the score tied. It worked out as well as the fake field goal did.

Notre Dame kicker Brandon Walker hasn't been stellar, but his long this year is 48 and this was well within his range. Weis said he had been missing those into-the-wind field goals during pre-game, but the odds still had to have been better than 4th-and-8 against a zooted Navy defense. The way to beat a less-talented team is straight-up, conventionally. It's the underdog that has to get clever.

But Weis can't do that, has to show off his fertile imagination and demonstrate his beautiful mind and leave his genius imprint on every game he coaches. We see how far it has taken the Irish.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:54 AM | Comments (1)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 10

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-4 1/2)

The Panthers are a team at a crossroads. They can either go forward or backwards, but with quarterback David Carr at the helm, they're stalled on the tracks. It's the railroad tracks, and Carr can't get the engine to turn over. Heck, he can't even find the keys. And there's no one around to push him off the track. No, wait, there's lots of people around. None of them want to help, though. In fact, Steve Smith is welding the doors shut as we speak, and placing triangular wooden blocks on either side of all four tires to keep the car from rolling. It's time for John Fox to make a tough decision.

"I think there's only one thing to do in this situation," says Fox. "Bring out the gimp. Get Vinny Testaverde in there. And tell him to take off that silly black leather hood. Where's he been? In a bathroom stall with two cheerleaders? Hey, whatever it takes to rehab an Achilles' heel. Sound like a cure-all to me. I hear it even cures pocket jitters, which is the affliction that ails Carr. I think Carr's spent less time in the pocket than the cue ball during a nine-ball tournament between Willie Mosconi and Minnesota Fats at the Stardust in Las Vegas. If Carr nor Testaverde can go, we'll turn to rookie Matt Moore. I've got my fingers crossed, although I'm not exactly sure what I'm hoping for. Whatever the outcome, it will be a case of 'Moore or less.'"

Whenever the Panthers and Falcons meet, the most entertaining matchup is between Steve Smith and DeAngelo Hall. These guys hate each other. When the Panthers and Falcons met in Week 3, Hall was penalized 67 yards on a single Carolina drive for a variety of infractions, including defensive pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct, conduct detrimental to Christians, and hate crimes. This time it's no different. Hall and Smith engage in a game-long "your momma" insult contest, with Smith taking the victory with "Your momma is so ugly, she flosses her teeth with the first down chains." Hall accepts defeat gracefully, and he and Smith skip off together into the sunset, hand in hand, and later hold a joint press conference in which they promise they won't be with their respective teams next year.

Panthers win, 19-16.

Buffalo @ Miami (+2 1/2)

The Dolphins spent their bye week evaluating their 0-8 start and looking for ways to improve in the second half of the season. So, in other words, they had a lot of time off. But the team was buoyed by rumors of Rickey William's possible return to the team from a drug suspension. Insiders within the organization says Williams is working hard to get in shape, and is only about 7/10's of a second from his target 40-yard dash time of 4.20. Sources also say that Williams has been training with a grueling regimen of 7,000 squat thrusts a a day in his small workout area inside his van with the bubble window and curtains, along with some blindfolded Tibetan meditation under the tutelage of a Mr. Miagi.

"Hey, today's Dolphins need Ricky Williams like I needed Mercury Morris," says former Miami coach and current Slimfast carnival barker Don Shula. "Wait, did I just advocate Williams' return or decry it? I'm not sure. All I know is that Commissioner Roger Goodell would have to pretty stoned himself to allow Ricky back. But Roger's been meeting with so many drug fiends lately that the second-hand effects have to be getting to him. But he's a man of reason and intelligence. As am I. Say what you will, but should the Patriots go 19-0, I firmly believe that their season would have to be classified as 'tainted' in the wake of the 'Spygate' tape scandal. Now, I know I just guaranteed that the Dolphins will get beat 64-6 in Foxboro in Week 16 by saying that, but I have to speak my mind. Mind you, it wouldn't be the first thing to be 'tainted' in New England this year. I hear that the 'tainted' is the house specialty at the waxing spa Tom Brady's flame Giselle Bundchen frequents in Foxboro."

The Bills have won three in a row and are 4-4 in the AFC East, second to the 9-0 Patriots. Two of those losses were by one point to the Broncos and Cowboys; their two other losses were to the Patriots and Steelers.

"I think that makes us the fourth best team in the AFC and second best in the NFC," says Dick Jauron. "I've got no problem conceding the division crown to the Patriots right now. I'll even send them some complimentary footage of our coaches performing rhythmic gymnastics to the sweet sounds of the Goo Goo Dolls, along with a signed copy of our playbook, plus some stolen paraphernalia from O.J. Simpson if they promise to destroy us respectfully and with dignity in Week 11. I'll even write the headline: 'Patriots Put Down Bills.' And Shula needs to shut his blowhole. Over the years, I think the players on the 1972 Dolphins have been able to whine for themselves whenever a team approached their record. Dan Marino won't be around to save then this time."

No Marino. No dice. Bills win, 23-16.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-10)

Like Ben Roethlisberger, Cleveland's Derek Anderson is a statuesque quarterback, standing 6'6," which is a good head and two shoulders above Brady Quinn. Unlike Roethlisberger, if you ran into Anderson on the street, you probably wouldn't recognize him. Shoot, you probably wouldn't even recognize him if he ran his motorcycle slap dab into your car windshield. But he is getting noticed for his play, which is part of the reason the Browns are 5-3 and will challenge the Steelers for a piece of the AFC North lead.

"Hey, you'll never catch me on the seat of a crotch rocket," says Anderson. "I make it a point not to sit on anything Japanese unless it's a booth at P.F. Chang's in downtown Cleveland, or a dentist's chair at the Bangkok Spa, even further downtown. I like my dental work with a happy ending. The root canal's I get aren't painful at all."

Roethlisberger torched the Ravens for five touchdown in the first half on the way to a 38-7 Steelers' win. He knows the Steelers will be hard-pressed to duplicate their week one 34-7 win over the Browns.

"They're not the same team they were in Week 1," says Roethlisberger. "Obviously, because Charlie Frye was their quarterback. Now, Anderson has made the Browns his team and Frye, like Brady Quinn, has dropped off the face of the planet. The Browns' infatuation with Quinn seems to have faded, and even former Notre Dame star Mike Golic has filed for separation, citing alienation of affection. I'll say this: Quinn looks great in uniform, and when he accessorizes with a baseball cap, headset, and a clipboard, he looks even better. And he's got to be the highest paid baseball cap and headset-wearing clipboard holder in the NFL."

Pittsburgh man-crushes the Browns, 31-10.

Denver @ Kansas City (-4)

Last week, Denver entered Detroit's Ford Field as the Broncos, but left as the "geldings" after a neutering and numbing 44-7 walloping by the Lions, one that even Jason Elam couldn't kick them out of. The beating left Denver's Mike Shanahan embarrassed and irate, and an unhealthy amount of blood rushed to his already rosy countenance.

"That may very well be true," says Shanahan, "but it did get me an audition for the upcoming movie Things to Do in Denver When You're Red. I would have got the part, too, but they didn't like the way I held a laminated play sheet in front of my face while speaking my lines. Anyway, I did get an inconsequential part in the movie, which reminded me of my coaching days when I was somehow winning Super Bowls. But it was an embarrassing defeat, made worse by the fact that Jay Cutler was hurt. Now I've got two options. I can either coach my tail off, or start kissing frogs in the hopes that one of them will turn into John Elway."

The Chiefs held a 22-16 lead before the Packers scored 17 unanswered points to complete a 33-22 win, Green Bay's third win over an AFC West opponent this year. The Chiefs still hold the division lead in the West by virtue of every other team in the West losing.

"See, we didn't even have to play to win the game," says Herman Edwards. "Rats! That means I wasted some of my prime pre-game speech material, all for nothing. But I'll have to come up with my best motivational speech ever this week, because Larry Johnson is out for this game, and possibly the season, with a foot injury. Believe me, when I heard that news, it was the biggest freak-out by a Kansas City inhabitant since George Brett got caught pine-tarring his bat shaft a little too high. I just hope that Priest Holmes can suddenly regain his pre-getting-knocked-silly-by-Shawne-Merriman form."

Denver without Cutler against the Chiefs without Johnson? A game without viewers? Men Without Hats? Huh? Chiefs win, 22-14.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-4 1/2)

The Jaguars surrendered 445 passing yards to Drew Brees in their 41-24 loss to the Saints. But passing yardage is something the Jags won't have to worry about against the run-oriented Titans, who basically use the pass to dry the ball for more secure handoffs. Tennessee beat the Panthers last week 20-7 in textbook fashion: jump out to a lead, then run the ball 40-45 times for a 3.1 average, and limit Vince Young's pass attempts to screens, dump downs, and the occasional spike to kill the clock.

"Hey, I love spiking the ball," says Young. "That's one pass I know I can throw on target. I know my passer rating isn't great, but I bet it beats the ERA's of 90% of Major League baseball pitchers. If you took my passer rating, subtracted my passer rating, and added one, you'd get my Wonderlic score."

Jacksonville is 1-1 with quarterback Quinn Gray under center. Gray has an arm. In fact, he's got two. His right one has the power of a cannon, and also the accuracy of one.

"We won't win this game on the merits of Quinn's right arm," says Jack Del Rio, who has been in a six-year race with Tennessee's Jeff Fisher to see who could maintain a team incapable of challenging the Colts for the division the longest. "The only 'merits' on Quinn's right arm are the pack of cigarettes rolled up in the sleeve of his white t-shirt. Grease is the word, chief. Yackety yack, when's Garrard back? When Quinn throws, it's like he's tossing a boomerang. You're not quite sure where it's going, but you know it's coming back to you. In Quinn's case, it comes back in the arms of the defender who just intercepted it. Quinn was the best tackler on the team in the Saints' game. Anyway, we know this game will be won in the trenches. Defensively, we've got to fill the gaps. Offensively, we've got to stay on our blocks and avoid the Albert Haynesworth step show."

Televisions in trailer parks across the states of Florida and Tennessee will be tuned to the game, with local yokels glued to their sets. So, if you're out there watching, you with the son named "Billie Don" and a daughter named after a car or state, enjoy the game.

Tennessee wins, 17-9.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-6)

Ask former Viking quarterback Fran Tankenton about Adrian Peterson's record-setting rushing performance last Sunday, and he's apt to reply, "That's Incredible!" Then, he'd probably kick it back over to Skip Stevenson, John Davidson, or Sarah Purcell to see some idiot savant play Beethoven on the piano, or maybe see a yoga master squeeze himself into a 3'x3' glass box. But those performances pale in comparison to Peterson's NFL rushing record of 296 yards against the Chargers in the Vikings' 35-17 win.

"The kid's a phenom," says Brad Childress. "He's singlehandedly won us three games. And the other five I've singlehandedly lost by not giving him the ball enough. Speaking of Fran Tarkenton, I'd like to know if he's available for a tryout. We're always on the lookout for good quarterbacks here. Correction. We're always on the lookout for quarterbacks here."

Peterson, who knocked Jamal Lewis from the record books, was humbled by having his name mentioned along with previous single-game record holders O.J. Simpson, Walter Payton, Corey Dillon, and Lewis.

"If I could be half the man Payton was," says Peterson, "I'd be happy. If I had half the rap sheet of O.J., and done half the whining that Dillon did, and suffered half the injuries that Lewis has, I'd be playing golf on a bum ankle bitching about my slice."

In Green Bay's 33-22 win over the Chiefs, Brett Favre joined Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as the only quarterbacks to have beaten every other team in the league.

"Yeah, but I'm the only quarterback to have tried every painkiller known to man," says Favre, "as well as dipped every brand of smokeless tobacco ever placed on the market. Talk about records I'm proud of. I've disgusted more people with my spit cups than any player in history, except Walt Garrison."

Favre will have to air it out against the Vikes, who held Tomlinson to 40 yards rushing last week. Favre will have to keep the defense honest with quick slants and draws, and an occasional quarterback sneak to let the Vikes know that "Yeah, we can run it. Just not very well." It will take a team effort to stop Peterson, but Charles Woodson and Al Harris at the corners will allow the Pack to stack the box. And we all know that Viking players are easily distracted by "stacked boxes." Green Bay wins the turnover battle and prevails, 20-16.

Philadelphia @ Washington (-2 ½)

The Eagles were blown out 38-17 by the Cowboys and fell further into last place in the NFC East, where they are the only team with a losing record. The Eagles have fallen hard after advancing to the divisional round in last year's playoffs. Coach Andy Reid, whose job may or may not be on the line, depending on the level of drunkenness of the maniacal Philly fan you ask, knows that a quick turnaround is necessary for the Eagles to have any chance at making the playoffs.

"Look, offensive and defensively we're underperforming," says Reid. "To put it bluntly, we stink. But I've smelled worse. My sons are usually cooking up some awfully rank smelling stuff in their basement lab. And I make a pretty gnarly 'Dutch Oven.' Just ask my wife. Anyway, we're getting our sons the help they need. Their drug use was tearing this house apart, and I was getting pretty sick and tired of eating cereal with a fork. And, I was wondering why Martina Hingis suddenly became their favorite tennis player."

The Redskins responded to their humiliating 52-7 loss to the Patriots with a come-from-behind 23-20 win over the Jets.

"Bring on the Patriots," says Randall Godfrey, who complained that the Patriots ran up the score on the 'Skins. "They are blatant 'Indian givers' of beatdowns. I think Justin Timberlake said it best when he crooned, 'What Goes Around, Comes Around.' But how can you trust a white boy who's had cornrows? You can't. And you can't trust Bill Belichick, with or without cornrows. We'll see the Patriots again. I just hope I have tickets to the Super Bowl, so I won't have to see them on television."

The Eagles aren't ready to throw in the towel, and neither are Philadelphia hoodlums Vinnie and Joey, who eschew physical violence for a much more effective form of intimidation — shaving Chris Cooley's afro. Cooley is unaffected, although his helmet falls aff several times, and catches a late touchdown pass. Redskins win, 23-20.

St. Louis @ New Orleans (-12)

The 0-8 Rams, fresh off a bye week, head to the Superdome in New Orleans confident that this is the week they break out and get a win. The Saints have been semi-hospitable this year at home, posting a 2-2 record, but their latest victory at home was an impressive win over Jacksonville.

"We're not doing the Rams any favors," says Reggie Bush, "unless they can provide documented proof that they are related to me. And we definitely won't do them any favors this Sunday, although we'll gladly supply the paper bags to any of their fans with the nerves to show up. We'll even throw in a FEMA guaranteed loan, which can be used to upgrade an entertainment room, build an Olympic-sized swimming pool, or towards a severance package for Scott Linehan. By law, you just can't use the loan to rebuild anything destroyed by Hurricane Katrina."

Linehan was just happy to survive the off-week with his job intact.

"I was under the assumption that a 'bye' week was when Rams' management handed me a pink slip and said 'goodbye,' says Linehan. "Speaking of 'pink slip,' did I see Steven Jackson wearing one in the locker room. You'd think a 240-pound back could suck it up and play with a little pain in his abdominals. Heck, a six-pack never kept anyone from playing, did it? Okay, besides members of the Cincinnati Bengals. I though so. Steven needs to get off his Ab-Lounger and get on the field."

The Rams are the only team in the NFL yet to score more than 100 points, with 99. This is their week to break 100. When you're 0-8, you've got to set reachable goals. But one point won't be enough to overcome the Saints, who are hitting their stride. Drew Brees throws for 278 yards and two touchdowns, and Bush breaks off a long, nine-yard touchdown run. Saints win, 30-22.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-6 ½)

You could take all of the knowledge that Marvin Lewis and Brian Billick supposedly possess about defense and offense, respectively, and fill a 26-volume encyclopedia set. You could take all the knowledge that they actually possess and fit it on the head of a pin, and a talented engraver with a keen eye could still fit all the names of the members of the Stanley Cup champions on that pin.

"I would say 'Look on the bright side,'" says Chad Johnson, "but I can't turn my head. Isn't it ironic that I'm the one with the pain in the neck? But, honestly, it's not that painful. I've had worse neck injuries. There was that time in 2003 in San Diego when I strained my neck doing the 'funky chicken' dance after a score. But the real issue here is our defense, or lack thereof. And what's the best cure for a shabby defense? A run-stuffing tub of lard in the middle, preferably Samoan? No way. In Cincy, the cure for bad defense is more offense. We've got Chris Henry coming back from idiot suspension to give us the best three-wideout set in the league. That is, if he can make it through the parking lot. By the way, what's up with these Henry kids? That stoned pony Travis in Denver is fighting a suspension, and the other Chris, in Tennessee, will soon be serving his four games. What's in a name? Apparently, drugs, alcohol, and stupidity."

The Ravens are underperforming on both sides of the ball. Their rush defense is still potent, but opponents quickly realize that passing is the way to go, if you're headed downfield. On offense, Steve McNair rarely completes a pass, and when he does, it's to the grass.

"We need to find some offense Billick-ity split," says Ray Lewis. "Steve's doing the best he can, as is Coach Billick. But the years of taking hits have taken their toll on Steve's body, and years of running an extremely conservative offense backed up by an awesome defense have sapped the knowledge from Billick's head. I think you can expect wholesale changes to the Ravens once this disaster of a year is over."

Can the Ravens mount enough offense to beat the Bengals? Can the Bengals stop the anemic Baltimore offense? Can Lewis and Billick win a chess match with checkerboard schemes? Defense wins championships, but offense wins meaningless midseason games. Bengals win, 23-21.

Chicago @ Oakland (+3)

Does wearing the black uniform really strike fear into anyone anymore, now that Johnny Cash is dead? The Raiders surely don't scare anyone, not with a 2-6 record and an offense that can't move the ball consistently, except when punting. Even the fans in the Black Hole, the nickname of Oakland's McAfee Coliseum, are wearing their face paint, shoulder pads, leather chaps, and designer handbags with a little less pride and attitude.

"Hey, I still wear black," says AL Davis, "and I'm scary. Look at me. Are you familiar with the word 'repulsion?' Excellent. Take a look at this picture of me from 1979. Are you going to tell me that seeing me in a short-sleeve, black jumpsuit, with my Elvis Pressley pompadour hairdo, and my Kangol shades is not intimidating? No? How about this shot. It's me playing the character of Gollum from the Lord of the Rings trilogy. Scary, huh? Most people thought Gollum was a computer-animated figure. Nope, that's me."

Damn, Al! You're naked! Consider me terrified, then. But seriously, like the ability to make sound business decisions, the intimidation factor fades over time. Look at Mike Tyson. In his black trunks and black boots, he was the baddest man on the planet. Now, he's just a washed up buffoon with a cave painting on his face. Not intimidating.

Now, the Bears don't scare anyone either, although Devin Hester has caused many a special teams coach to blow coverage and soil his britches. Otherwise, the Bears are nothing like the team that made what becomes an even more surprising Super Bowl run every day. Now, the Bears face at least their sixth must-win game of the year.

"Hey, if I threaten to eat Lane Kiffin's children," says Lovie Smith, "would that be considered intimidating? No? How about if I nibble his ear? No? Okay, how about a straight-up trade? Rex Grossman for JaMarcus Russell?"

While Russell readies for his debut, the Raiders will go with the evil of two lessers between Daunte Culpepper or one of those McCown boys. That's not intimidating. Bears win, 27-21.

Dallas @ NY Giants (+1)

Tony Romo's wallet may be fatter than ever, and he may have Britney Spears number on his cell phone, but he still puts his pants on one leg at a time, and he always remembers his underwear when there's the chance of a flock of paparazzi snapping his crotch after a night of partying and inter-gender entwinement.

"What can I say?" says Romo. "I'm bachelor No. 1. And judging by the poster I just saw in the health department, Britney's pubic enemy No. 1. Britney's not even in my league, though. I've got something she doesn't — visitation rights with her kids. But enough about trashy celebu-skanks. Let's talk about those New York Giants. Last week was disappointing for Peyton Manning. This week, Eli comes up short. We're unleashing our newest weapon, Tank Johnson, on the Giants offense. He's been frisked, and he's loaded for Bear. And he's going to make the most of his second chance at a Manning brother."

The Giants have the league's second-longest winning streak, six games, and are undefeated in Europe. While in London, the Giants participated in an exhibition soccer scrimmage with Manchester United. That is, until the Giants picked up a quick 13 red cards and were disqualified. They were kind enough to exchange jerseys, though.

"We learned a lot in London," says Michael Strahan. "Soccer is not a contact sport. American football players are way tougher than European football players. We don't even wear shin guards."

The Giants are intent on avenging their week one 45-35 loss in Dallas. The G-Men will have to get quick pressure on Romo and keep him from getting outside the pocket, where he's dangerous on the run. Eli Manning, on the other hand, couldn't leave the pocket if you showed him a doorway. Quarterback mistakes will decide this one, as will a frozen orange tossed from the upper level that beans Romo. Giants win, 30-28.

Detroit @ Arizona (-1 1/2)

The Lions are the hottest NFC North team to visit Arizona since the undefeated Bears came to Glendale last year. That was the Dennis Green 'meltdown' game, which has earned Green way more fame than any of his coaching. In fact, Green has applied with the U.S. Patent office to copyright his now-famous line "If you want to crown them, then crown them." And, he's been interrupting checkers games in city parks all over the country.

"Hey, I've got a line I want to copyright, too," says Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt. "'Nobody beats the Whis', nobody beats the Whis'."

Sorry, Ken. Somebody beats the Whis'. The Cards have five losses. And Biz Markie might have something to say about that, as will electronics chain The Wiz.

The Lions blasted the Broncos 44-7 last week, but, in another display of the lack of respect they're receiving, the win was overshadowed by Jon Kitna's Halloween costume. Kitna wore an oversized shirt depicting a naked man, in reference to Detroit coach Joe Cullen, who was arrested last year when he drove to a local restaurant's drive-through naked.

"If this whole team walked on the field naked," says Kitna, "no one would notice. And I darn sure wouldn't envy my position as quarterback. No one's noticed us, and we're 6-2. What does it take, short of nudity, to get some press around here?"

Here's how, Jon. Take care of business in Arizona. Then beat the Giants and Packers at home. You might then get on "SportsCenter."

Lions win, 27-24.

Indianapolis @ San Diego (+3)

So, were the Colts really piping in crowd noise during last Sunday's game against the Patriots?

"Crowd noise?" says Peyton Manning. "That was Christmas music, you heathens. 'Tis the season. You know there's only about 45 shopping days until Christmas. If the Patriots have a problem with that, then we'll just have to play the AFC Championship Game somewhere else, like, say, in New England. Should we even fear that? There's this thing called global warming. It will be a balmy 55 degrees there in January. And I'm pretty sure I'm undefeated in games in which the temperature is below 60 degrees, excluding those in New England during the playoffs. Besides, should a miracle happen and it snows, we can play cold weather football now with our big back, Joseph Addai (Hard With a Vengeance). Can Randy Moss play in the snow? I doubt it. The last time Moss saw snow was when he made Art Shell that yellow snow cone."

"Yellow snow cone?" inquires Norv Turner. "Sounds delicious. Can I get one of those around here?"

You sure can, Norv. It's called an 'L. Tea.' If you're really thirsty, you can try the 'Master P.'

The Chargers defense suffered the ignominy of surrendering the gold(en shower) standard of NFL rushing records when Adrian Peterson blistered them for 296 yards. What does it say about a team when the reigning NFL MVP is out-rushed by 256 yards by a rookie?

"I don't know," says LaDainian Tomlinson. "But I'll jump on the bandwagon and blame it on Norv Turner."

Tomlinson versus Addai? Edge, San Diego. Manning versus Philip Rivers? Game, Indy. Colts win, 27-21.

San Francisco @ Seattle (-10)

The schedule makers obviously thought highly of the NFC West when they made the 2007 schedule. Otherwise, would we be watching the 2-6 49ers face the 4-4 Seahawks on Monday Night Football? MNF!? WTF?! San Francisco was supposed to challenge for the division crown after a promising 2006 campaign that included two wins over the Seahawks.

"Frankly, I'm ashamed to be a part of this organization," says Joe Montana. "I'd go so far as to say if the 49ers had a reunion of the greatest players in their history, I wouldn't even show up. Now, for a huge appearance fee, I'd come, but only long enough to pop in and wave to the crowd. Toss in a free meal, and I'll stay and sign a few autographs, for a nominal fee. Then I'm outta there."

"I have to agree with my brother, man," says Tony Montana. "The 49ers stink. You know why? 'Cause they got their heads up their culos, that's why."

The 4-4 Seahawks have the division lead in the competitive NFC West. And by "competitive," I mean a quick playoff exit for the division winner. Running back Shaun Alexander, long a staple of the offense, is so banged up that the only "staple" used in connection with him will be the ones holding his skin together after several offseason surgeries.

"It looks like I'll be spending time at Seattle Grace Hospital," says Alexander. "What's that? It's a fictional hospital? What do you know? Just like our Super Bowl hopes. This team is a lot like Grey's Anatomy. Either you're a fan, and you watch, or you just don't give a flip. If that's the kind of crap that goes on behind the scenes at that hospital, then I wouldn't want to have surgery there anyway. Where's Trapper John, M.D. when you need him?"

Seahawks win, 23-14.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:51 AM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 34

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson passed Matt Kenseth with three laps left in Texas to capture his third-straight win in the Chase. Johnson trailed Jeff Gordon by nine heading in to the Dickies 500; now, he leads by 30.

"Top Jimmie cooks, Top Jimmie swings," says Johnson. "I've got the look. Top Jimmie, he's the king. If there's any driver out there who thinks he can take this lead from me, he might as well jump, or forever hold his peace."

2. Jeff Gordon — The remainder of Gordon's points lead evaporated in the dry air of Texas, as an ill-handling car left him unable to challenge the advances of the hard-charging Jimmie Johnson, who took the checkered and the points lead. Gordon trails Johnson by 30 as the Chase heads to Phoenix, where Gordon won in the spring.

"Jimmie's had nothing but good luck lately," says Gordon. "So he's due for some bad luck. All it takes is one loose lugnut, one flat tire, one sabotaged inspection, or one used baby diaper conveniently placed under the driver's seat."

3. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer was forced to make two green-flag pit stops to correct a tire vibration, which cost him two laps. He finished 19th, and remains third in the points, 181 behind Johnson.

"Okay, so maybe it's down to a two-man race between Johnson and Gordon," says Bowyer. "There's three races to go, one championship to be had, and 41 other cars in the way."

4. Kyle Busch — Busch led the most laps, 153, in Texas, but fell short in the end, finishing fourth. He moves up two spots in the points to fourth, where he trails Jimmie Johnson by 339 points.

"Jimmie's built a Texas-sized lead over me," says Busch. "But he looks like a Texas-sized goofball in a ten-gallon hat and a pair of six-shooters. Somethings just don't go together, much like Michael Waltrip and driving."

5. Kurt Busch — The elder Busch fought back from one lap down to finish eighth in the Dickie's 500. He's ninth in the points, 453 out of first.

"A little birdie told me I was her favorite driver named 'Busch,'" says Busch. "Or maybe that was just my mother giving me the finger. She's actually a closest Jimmie Spencer fan."

6. Tony Stewart — Stewart battled handling conditions all day in Texas, but willed his way to an 11th in the Dickies 500. Stewart fell one spot to sixth in the points, where he is 373 out of first.

"I wasn't happy with the car and I let it know how I felt," says Stewart. "The No. 20 Chevy is about the only thing with which I can speak freely and not offend. I did notice the 'Pay Fine' light came on after a particularly expletive-laced tirade on lap 176 when the dang car wouldn't turn out of turn three."

7. Jeff Burton — Burton was unable to duplicate his spring win in Texas, instead crossing the line in a solid sixth. Burton is seventh in the points, a distant 431 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"The Vegas odds are out," says Burton. "If you're willing to bet $1,000,000 to win $1, then place your bets for a Hendrick driver to win the Cup."

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards struggled all day in Texas, finishing three laps down after issues with his sway bar led to multiple stops for adjustments. He finished 26th and drops a spot in the standings to fifth, 357 out of first.

"I didn't run too well on Sunday," says Edwards. "But I did clinch the Busch Series title on Saturday. I was, however, kind of disappointed that all I win for that is a Burger King crown and a case of beer."

9. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex started on the pole, led 16 early laps, and finished third in Texas. He is now 11th in the point standings, 524 out of first.

"I think it's time to start looking ahead to next year," says Truex. "I'm looking forward to Daytona, but I'm even more looking forward to the 'Bruton Smith: I Own This Track' 400 at New Hampshire."

10. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led 44 laps, but could not repel the advances of Jimmie Johnson as the race neared its end. Johnson passed with three laps to go, and Kenseth had to settle for second, which was still his best result of the Chase.

"Sure, not winning is disappointing," says Kenseth, "but I can be happy with a second-place finish. I was happy to be the top Roush Fenway racing finisher, and even more happy that I didn't flinch when Carl Edwards offered me a high five."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:13 AM | Comments (3)

November 7, 2007

The Top Five Overrated NFL Teams

The Patriots and Colts, along with Adrian Peterson, dominated the Sunday NFL coverage, and I really don't know what I could add that hasn't already been written. But now that every team has played at least eight games, I thought it would be a good time for a mid-year review.

I want to focus on bad teams, but not the obvious ones. The Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Falcons, Rams, and 49ers, we all know they stink — heaping further scorn on these squads would only waste valuable Internet space.

There are, though, squads that attempt to fool us with a .500 or better record that have absolutely no business passing themselves off as legitimate playoff-contending teams. Here are my top five...

5) Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

They can't run. They can't stop anyone from running. Or passing. Or keep anyone out of the end zone. But they will be in the playoffs because as bad as they are, their division is so much worse. And by rule, at least one team from the NFC West must in fact make the playoffs, which is lucky for one eventual wild card winner.

4) Carolina Panthers (4-4)

Always the trendy preseason pick because of their weapons at the skill positions or their individually talented defenders, the Panthers continue to frustrate their fans, and Steve Smith fantasy owners. I would say losing Jake Delhomme is entirely the reason for their sputtering start, but when they got hammered at home (where they are winless) by the Houston Texans, Delhomme was in the starting lineup.

3) Baltimore Ravens (4-4)

Every year, the Sports Illustrated preseason scouting report (which I love) says something along the lines of how unbelievable this Ravens defense is, 11 all-pros on side of the ball, etc. That may have been the case three years ago, but nowadays? I don't think their defense scares anyone anymore. Combine that with their offense, who hasn't scared anyone since ... well, never, and you have a team that has wins this season over the Jets, 49ers, Rams, and Cardinals, with losses to the Bengals, Browns, Bills, and Steelers. Oh, and their last playoff win? Elvis Grbac was the quarterback, in 2002 over the Dolphins.

2) Kansas City (4-4)

Herm Edwards has always gotten the most out of his teams — the problem is he usually undermines everything accomplished between the lines with a mortifying decision outside of them. Their defense is decent, but susceptible to giving up the big play. And with the injury to Larry Johnson, their offense just went from awful to ... what's worse than awful? Anyone remember them losing 200-3 to the Colts last year? Are the Chiefs really going to make the playoffs again?

1) Washington Redskins (5-3)

The Redskins are the prime example of how bad the NFC is. This is a team that has virtually no offense, a defense that gave up 52 points, and needed overtime to beat the Jets. In summary, they can't stop you or score, and are currently one game out of the playoffs.

Posted by Piet Van Leer at 11:50 AM | Comments (1)

World Cup 2018: England Expects

Hooray. The English Football Association is to bid for the 2018 World Cup and it's almost certain England will not only win that, but the whole tournament, too. After all, that's what happened in 1966. Omens don't come any bigger. Cue spontaneous street parties in the shires, the uncorking of vintage port in social clubs, and revelry so infectious it marries the warring classes and unites a nation. Call David Beckham. Call Des Lynam. Call Baddiel and Skinner. It's coming home.

What sublime genius from Gordon Brown to back the bid. That's what we want from our Prime Minister — a thinker, a doer, a man of the people. And people love their soccer. What was Maggie thinking? She might have lined the wallets of thousands, told those pesky unions where to go, and done it all to a soundtrack of Duran Duran, but she had no handle on the national game whatsoever. How can you expect to be remembered when you failed to win the rights to a single major soccer tournament during your tenure? Even George Bush Senior managed it.

As for the FA, all is forgiven. Granted, Steve McClaren as coach was a mistake, but there's nothing like World Cup fever to soften the blow. You can take your bungs, scandals, and inadequacies and drown them in hooligan juice with all those ID cards, never to be seen or heard of again. "I think not qualifying for Euro 2008 is a good thing," will say the proverbial man in the pub, "we need to focus on 2018 now. That's gonna be our best chance of winning anything. I can't wait."

Sadly, unless the price of cryogenic freezing falls dramatically, we still have over 4,000 dreary, rain-soaked English days to negotiate before the celebration begins. In that time, we can look forward to reading approximately 2,178,000 newspaper articles on the subject of England's bid, which, if successful, will naturally spiral rampantly over budget, allowing politicians to focus on a football tournament — and forget about the darn NHS once and for all. From an advertising and marketing perspective, World Cup England spells what CNBC's Jim Kramer calls "Mad Money." Take Geoff Hurst, for example — everybody's favorite one-match hero (scorer of a hat trick in the '66 final) would likely earn £7 trillion from appearances on breakfast television alone.

Cynicism aside, the bid is undeniably a good thing for England and English soccer. It's just a shame to announce it so early and thus sentence an entire nation to relentless preview mode. Sport is all about anticipation, but 11 years is a long old hall to wait for England to splutter to the latter stages, lose on penalties, and send a nation to mourning. Still, at least we can stop talking about the 2012 Olympics for a while.

Posted by Will Tidey at 11:23 AM | Comments (0)

D-III's a Charm

Two Saturdays ago, Trinity University and Millsaps College figured out exactly how a pair of Division III football teams could get on "SportsCenter."

Simple. Just have a 15-lateral, 45-second, rugby-style kickoff return for the game-winning play as time expires like the one Trinity used to secure its victory.

But the bar ought to be a lot lower for fans because there is a lot to like about small-college football. One week after Trinity and Millsaps held their during-the-game fireworks, Waynesburg College squared off against Geneva College in a Division III tilt Geneva's home stadium at Beaver Falls, PA.

That game was just like hundreds of other small-college contests played last weekend throughout the country, which is to say that were a lot of things special about it.

Geneva is pretty much the Notre Dame of the Reformed Presbyterian Church and it takes its faith almost as seriously as the folks at South Bend. Actually, Geneva is probably a little more devout.

Every employee, from the janitors who spent last weekend raking leaves to football coach Geno DeMarco — whose father is a church pastor — has to make an expression of Christianity.

The athletic department's mission statement starts with the goal of "honoring Christ in and out of the athletic arena." You think the athletic department at Notre Dame told Charlie Weis he had to attend daily Mass or the deal was off?

Presumably, that principle also applied to Mark Mangino when he was offensive coordinator for the Golden Tornadoes back in the '80s before moving to Oklahoma. From there, Mangino was hired as head coach at Kansas, where he infected a basketball school with football fever.

On the outside wall of Geneva's fieldhouse, there is a listing of the three Geneva players whose numbers have been retired.

That includes one Cal Hubbard, who played for the team in the mid-1920s, when it was nicknamed the "Covies," short for Covenanters — the forerunner of the Reformed Presbyterians.

If you want to see Hubbard's Hall of Fame inscription, go to Canton. Or Cooperstown, take your pick.

Since Geneva shares the field with Beaver Falls High School, the wall also includes some guy called Namath.

And that doesn't take into account the game, which Geneva won, 24-17, in overtime. The Golden Tornadoes took a 17-0 lead into halftime, but Waynesburg scored 17 third-quarter points to tie the game and set up the extra session, when converted defensive back Matt Dean scored the game-winner.

While the Division III players are usually smaller and slower — which is the most noticeable difference between them and their D-I brethren, the game is pretty much the same, and sometimes more electric.

And, with D-I schools tightening the belts on scholarships, players who might have gone to football factories a generation ago are now falling to former also-rans, mid-major schools, and D-II programs, which at least partially explains surging programs like Rutgers and South Florida.

It also explains why players like Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger, from the University of Miami, are now making their mark in the NFL.

While it's not likely that too many D-III players will follow that path, there are still good reasons to check out small-college players. For one thing, most small colleges recruit their backyard, so there's certain to be familiar names in the program.

Geneva's roster includes more than 20 players who graduated from high schools located within 10 miles of campus.

Small colleges are where you'll find many of the names etched in the NCAA record books. Going into this season, college football's all-time leading rusher was R.J. Bowers of Grove City, which was on the schedule for both Waynesburg and Geneva this season.

That mark has since been broken by Danny Woodhead of Division II Chadron State. Woodhead, a senior has nudged the mark up over 7,500 yards.

One of the leading candidates to threaten that mark played in Beaver Falls last weekend. Nine games into his college career, Waynesburg freshman Robert Heller has more than 1,700 yards rushing and is averaging almost 200 yards a game.

Of course, to catch Woodhead, he'll need to turn that up a notch.

But that ought to be fun to watch, but it begs the question.

If a runner breaks the NCAA career rushing record and only 2,000 people are there to see it, does it get on "SportsCenter?"

Posted by Eric Poole at 11:09 AM | Comments (1)

November 6, 2007

In the Box: NFL Week 9

New England 24, Indianapolis 20

Before we let this game fade into memory until we need it to hype the AFC Championship Game, three notes:

1. The Pats won, so the story line is way down there on the list of talking points, but the officiating in this game was atrocious. It was so completely one-sided against New England, even the Colts fans/Pats haters I was with were admitting it was terrible. When the Pats were down 10 in the fourth quarter, I was already writing my rant in my mind. I was going to curse and everything. 146 penalty yards for the Pats to 25 for the Colts. It was horrible.

The Pats pulled it out, but that shouldn't erase the black mark on the crew led by John Parry, and on the NFL for giving the most important regular season game in more than a decade to a crew led by a first-year umpire (promoted from a side judge for this season).

(Note: I'm not alleging bias. I'm alleging incompetence.)

2. When Colts fans say this game has an asterisk because Marvin Harrison didn't play, Pats fans should respond by arguing Rodney Harrison didn't play in the AFC Championship Game last year.

Dallas Clark last January not being covered by Rodney Harrison the entire game: 6 receptions for 137 yards.

Clark yesterday being shadowed by Harrison on almost every play: 2 receptions for 15 yards.

I want to see these two teams play at full strength.

3. This is the best Colts defense of the Peyton Manning era — by far. And if the offense converts in the red zone in the first quarter, they probably win this game. Nobody should in any way think we've settled the debate over which of these teams is better.

Fantasy Impact: Kevin Faulk is the football equivalent of the glue-guy in basketball, and that keeps Laurence Maroney off the field more than anyone thought going into the season (was on the field for only 23 of 58 offensive plays, not including four kneel downs, according to the best beat blogger in the NFL, Mike Reiss).

With that said, I have to believe Maroney is going to be a factor before all is said and done, perhaps as soon as the Pats' next game, a Week 11 Sunday nighter at Buffalo. (Upset alert.)

Pittsburgh 38, Baltimore 7: Sunday, December 9, Pittsburgh at New England. If Pats-Colts in Week 9 was Super Bowl XLI 1/2, Pats-Steelers is XLI 3/4.

Also, Steve McNair is washed up. Done. Over. Kaput.

Fantasy Impact: Just when you thought Hines Ward had reclaimed his place at the top of the Steelers' WR food chain, he gets none of Ben Roethlisberger's record-tying 5 first-half TDs. Four receptions for 28 yards in a 38-7 blowout. That's just annoying.

Dallas 38, Philadelphia 17: Terrell Owens is one of those guys you just hate to see happy, but you have to give the guy his due: He can be a damn good player when he feels like it.

By way of historical comparison:

Owens' career stats (midway through 12 seasons): 845 receptions for 12,445 yards and 120 TD

Michael Irvin (12 seasons): 750 receptions for 11,904 yards and 65 TD

Art Monk (16 seasons): 940 receptions for 12,721 yards and 68 TD

Randy Moss (midway through 9 seasons): 732 receptions for 11,624 yards and 113 TD

Cris Carter (16 seasons): 1,101 receptions for 13,899 yards and 130 TD

Marvin Harrison (midway through 12 seasons): 1,042 receptions for 13,944 yards and 123 TD

James Lofton (17 seasons): 764 receptions for 14,004 yards and 75 TD

Jerry Rice (21 seasons): 1,549 receptions for 22,895 yards and 197 TD

Jerry Rice (after 12 seasons): 1,050 receptions for 16,377 yards and 154 TD

Irvin and Lofton are in the Hall of Fame. Carter is a nominee in his first year of eligibility (and a lock). Monk is a multiple-time finalist and nominee once again this year. Rice is the best WR ever and will headline the Hall of Fame Class of 2009.

I'm not saying T.O. has his ticket to Canton in hand. I'm sure his ridiculous antics over the years will cause some consternation in the voting room. But with several years remaining in his career (you would think), and an All-Pro QB (Tony Romo) with a great play-calling offensive coordinator (Jason Garrett), it's not at all unreasonable to think of Owens ending up with some of the best numbers ever at the position.

Fantasy Impact: All you need to know about the Eagles offense is that Brian Westbrook had 14 catches for 90 yards. I'm no Elias Sports Bureau, but I'm guessing the list of players to have 14 catches and not break 100 yards receiving is fairly short.

Houston 24, Oakland 17: The game nobody wanted to see did have two interesting notes:

1. Tim Dwight caught a touchdown pass. That's right — Tim Dwight, the same guy who retired from the Jets because of repeated concussion problems came back to risk his long-term health to play for a Raiders team that's going nowhere. You might make the argument that decision is proof enough his mental health has already been damaged beyond repair.

(CORRECTION: It was Wayne Chrebet who retired with concussion problems, not Dwight. Sorry for the error. Please ignore the idiot in the corner.)

2. Houston isn't going to make the playoffs, but their ability to compete despite the losses of their best players (Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub) says a whole lot about how the overall roster has improved. It'll be interesting to see what they can do after their Week 10 bye, with all seven of their remaining games coming against teams that are currently in, or within one game, of playoff position.

Fantasy Impact: In the exact opposite of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object quandary, Cedric Benson and the 31st ranked Bears rushing attack plays at the Raiders' 30th ranked rush defense in Week 10.

Cleveland 33, Seattle 30: At 4-4, the Seahawks are in first-place in the NFC West, with their only major competition an Arizona team led by Kurt Warner with Tim Rattay as his back up. At 5-3, the Browns are in second in the NFC North and in for a dogfight for the final playoff spot in the AFC. Sometimes, life just ain't fair.

Fantasy Impact: Taking a page out of the Jerome Bettis fantasy playbook (old Bus, not young Bus), Jamal Lewis' line from Sunday: 20 carries for 37 yards (1.9 avg) and 4 TD.

Green Bay 33, Kansas City 22: The most impressive stat in this game is the one sack allowed by Green Bay. The Chiefs defense is one of the best at getting to the QB, and the fact Brett Favre was able to stay on his feet (for the most part) was the difference between winning and losing this game. Great job in protection.

Fantasy Impact: Hope you listened when I told you to pick up Priest Holmes. Larry Johnson's ankle did not look comfortable.

Tennessee 20, Carolina 7: Vince Young's passing totals this season: 78, 184, 164, 157, 120, 42, 110. Tennessee is 6-2. In other words, the Titans are what the Falcons would have been under Mike Vick if the Falcons had ever put together a dominating defense.

Fantasy Impact: Drew Brees had more yards passing against Jacksonville than these two teams had total yards combined. If you have anybody on either one of these rosters (except the Titans' D, Rob Bironas, or Steve Smith), dump them now.

NOW!

Detroit 44, Denver 7: With the resurgence of Brees and the Saints, Travis Henry and the Broncos now hold the dual rank of most disappointing individual and most disappointing team of 2007.

Fantasy Impact: Sentence I wrote in an e-mail to a buddy on Monday morning (edited for publication): "I would have won if I had started Ryan Grant and Julius Jones instead of Henry and Maroney."

Tampa Bay 17, Arizona 10: Give the Bucs' coaches the credit on this one. For all the attention Jon Gruden gets as a QB freak, they passed the ball 28 times, ran the ball 46 times. And that's how you get a 43:07-16:53 time of possession advantage.

Fantasy Impact: When you see a QB go 10-for-30 with no TD and 2 INT, as did Kurt Warner in this game, you expect to see a whole lot of defensive pressure as the catalyst. But the Bucs didn't record a single sack. I don't know what it means, but it probably doesn't bode well for the rest of the Cardinals' season.

Karma 23, NY Jets 20: Payback wore a Redskins helmet on Sunday, but the logo doesn't matter. This is a cursed Jets team.

Also, the Jets' play calling stinks. They need to fire Brian Schottenheimer and steal another Patriots assistant.

Fantasy Impact: The Jets are officially in "start any player who plays against them" territory. With that in mind, the rest of the Jets' schedule: Bye, Pittsburgh, @Dallas, @Miami, Cleveland, @New England (can't wait), @Tennessee, Kansas City.

New Orleans 41, Jacksonville 24: Did I mention Drew Brees is back? He has 781 passing yards, 7 TD and no INT in his past two games.

Also of note, he's been sacked only once in his past five games, shocking considering how much everybody was piling on the Saints' offensive line early in the season (myself included).

Fantasy Impact: I keep waiting for David Patten to fade back into obscurity, but Devery Henderson seems to have played his way to a permanent seat on the bench, giving Patten a major role in an explosive offense.

Minnesota 35, San Diego 17: All that needs to be said about WalterPaytonEricDickersonBarrySandersJimBrown has been said, so I'll use this opportunity to point out the NFC went 5-2 against the AFC this weekend. The Pats, Colts, and Steelers are the three best teams in the NFL, but the rest of the AFC isn't any better than the NFC.

Fantasy Impact: Peterson is what Bo Jackson could have been if Jackson just played football and didn't get hurt. If they still made Tecmo Bowl, he would be unstoppable.

Buffalo 33, Cincinnati 21: Everybody knows about Peterson, but don't forget Marshawn Lynch. With his amazing day against the Bengals (153 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 pass TD), Lynch now has 690 yards rushing, good four fourth in the NFL. Assuming he gets the 310 he needs to break 1,000, he and Peterson will be the first rookie RB duo to both break 1,000 in the regular season since LaDainian Tomlinson (1,236 with the Chargers) and Anthony Thomas (1,183 for the Bears) in 2001.

Fantasy Impact: Chris Henry is back for Cincinnati. Their season turns around now. They win at Baltimore in Week 10.

Atlanta 20, San Francisco 16: Didn't the 49ers used to be 2-0?

Fantasy Impact: None.

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:52 AM | Comments (3)

A Partisan Cleansing

The steeple of the First Arlington Church pierces the cloudless Back Bay sky, where the unseasonably warm air is churned by the blades of hovering helicopters. Accompanied by the drone of plastic parade horns in the key of air raid alert, the duet gives the visual and auditory effect of war-torn Beirut. But this is Boston.

Today, the helicopters are ushering an assemblage of amphibious duck boats, confetti shooters, and flat-bedded rock musicians otherwise known as the Rolling Rally, a triennial celebration of the return of The Commissioner's Trophy to New England.

From within the church belfry an iron ensemble plays a succession of notes at half-tempo that, only after considerable focus on the part of listeners, become recognizable. Take ... Me ... Out ... To ... The ... Ballgame. Love ... That ... Dirty ... Water. Sweet ... Caroline. A group of college students across Boylston Street carry the melody where the bells go silent: 'So good, so good, so good!' Their lyrics are punched with far greater certitude than during your rank-and-file seventh inning stretches of the Fenway Park regular season, for the task at hand has now been accomplished.

They said it wouldn't be, that this day would not come, at least not for another 83 years. They said the Yankees could not be held at bay as the American League East race heated with the August sun. And when they were wrong, they switched allegiances, first to Cleveland, then Colorado. Anybody but the Red Sox of their hometown Boston. They wore their Got Rings? t-shirts and smirked at this franchise that has admittedly collected fewer than its share through a tormented past. They conversed of 1927 and 1961 and especially 1978 as if it were today, right here in our diners and coffee shops. Grown men, wearing pinstriped pajama tops with the No. 2 and another man's name embedded across their backs, and they laughed.

They were the detractors of Red Sox Nation: neighbors, fellow townsmen; nonetheless, wayward satellites of the Bronx. Some tied by direct ancestral or geographical lineage, but most floating in an acentric orbit circling a concept that no longer exists, one of pageantry and tradition, of perennial champion, an easy team to buy into; their tether the tensile strength of a dandelion stem.

But today, they have scattered like so many dandelion seeds against the first breeze of morning. They have been driven out by the odd-looking militia that rolls down Boylston Street to the cheers of a liberated city. One million strong lining the streets, clad in all manner of reds and whites, and caps bearing the custom-font 'B' of the Boston Red Sox. Today is strictly for the home team.

It is a great day for partisan cleansing.

Tomorrow will be too, and the next. Since Jonathan Papelbon set down the last three hitters of the 2007 World Series, The Hub's airwaves have been sanitized of Red Sox antagonists who call in from the shadows of the Prudential Tower espousing their platform that one championship every 86 years makes one a Loser Nation. In junior and senior high schools, the student body has moth-balled its navy blue and white-lettered baseball caps — the ones they wear sideways — at least for the school term. Downtown parking lots are spared of A-Rod bobbleheads peering contemptuously through their rear window perches into our cars. Hell, even lip balm sales are down.

Yes, a revolution has been seeded from the gutters of this Back Bay parade route and carries on the wisps of blowing confetti to the corners of Red Sox Nation. From there, it goes nationwide. The time has come for cities across Major League Baseball to take back their teams.

Of course, short of winning a World Series title, the quickest way is to exile the scalawags but this is not a Lenin revolution aimed to force consensus under the threat of bloodshed. Rather, it's more a Beatles revolution, a peaceful means of rediscovering the identity within. In this case, one's baseball franchise.

Winning it all greatly enhances this search but, in the meantime, there are other civic steps available.

Like, for instance, providing a comfortable, dry home in which to play. Legislators of Florida, open up that Rainy Day Fund because, if you haven't been to Dolphins Stadium lately, it is raining. Support your namesake by putting a roof over your Marlins' heads. Perhaps this will temper owner Jeffrey Loria's perennial fire sale and any inclination to flee under the cloak of night. You will find that life is not fun as a Devil Rays fan.

Speaking of which, it would be great if Tampa Bay could go through the motions of trying to bankroll a professional franchise. No team in Major League Baseball has license to pay its collective roster less than one player can signle-handedly earn outside the organization, and this is not an indictment on Alex Rodriguez. If D-Rays management would like to see more home than visitor colors filling the seats of Tropicana Field, they will have to climb off the bottom of the salary list soon. At least get past Loria's Marlins.

If your city cannot manage to muster the cross-sport sympathy vote, your attendants are advised to usher those non-baseball icons into private suites. In addition to stroking their egos, it will keep television cameras from making them freely available for public disgust. Guardians of the Jake, let the midges sit wherever they want, but keep LeBron out of the stands; impressionable youths don't dress like midges.

And GMs, re-sign a few players now and again. Soon, the sun will never set on the Twins' or A's empires as they play the perpetually bankrupt homeowner at their own foreclosure sale. They watch powerlessly as bidders coast-to-coast cast lots for their wares and force fans to read the out-of-town box scores to keep up with their favorite players.

In time, citizens in major league markets everywhere may become reacquainted with the guys who bat last, even if they don't make $143 million — or the playoffs on occasion. For them, much toil awaits in cleansing their streets of other teams' fans. Boston, meanwhile, need only cleanse theirs of confetti.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 11:50 AM | Comments (0)

November 5, 2007

NCAA Basketball Power Rankings

As I brainstormed topics for my first college hoops column of the season, I found myself wondering the question that every electronic writer faces at some point: what will get me the most angry, bitter comments below my work? With this challenge in mind, genius struck. Nothing riles up college hoops fan bases more than reading that their programs aren't as great as somebody else's. And with that, my NCAA hoops program power rankings were born.

The general gist of the rankings is that, roughly, they form a ladder for coaching ascension. That is, the coach of program No. 4, for example, should probably be willing to leave for programs 1-3, but none of the rest.

So what makes one program better than the other? These are the factors that set college hoops apart from the NBA. In the pros, nearly every team plays in a state-of-the-art, cookie-cutter arena packed with dance teams and pyrotechnics. In college, arenas, practice facilities, locations, academics, and coeds matter. Thinking about leaving a job in Southern California for Iowa? Better consider those pools of two-guards you'd be deciding between.

There are, of course, exceptions in putting these together. Coaches who were brought up in a famous program or under a famous mentor are probably hesitant to defect to the dark side. Do you think Oklahoma's (and former Dukie) Jeff Capel will be replacing Roy Williams any time soon? But aside from those oddballs, here are my rankings. And if you favor something other than Carolina blue, as always, your anger can be taken out on the comments section below.

1. North Carolina; 2. Duke — The sport's most heated rivalry takes the top two spots with the Heels getting the slightest of edges. Modern history, location, and coaching star power are equal and cancel out between these two. And while Carolina may be up now, let's not forget that just this decade the Dukies were clearly the class of the college hoops world, let alone the rivalry. But UNC has one small edge that earns this job the nod. While Duke trumpets its lofty academics, that very virtue must be a hinderance in bringing in the best talent. After all, the school's entrance requirements that devastate scores of valedictorians annually must in some way bottleneck the dozens of hoopsters hoping to play for Coach K. Or at the very least it's an additional rule a prospective coach would have to artfully manipulate in building his roster.

3. UCLA — Nobody, not even the Tobacco Roaders, surpasses the Bruins when it comes to hardware and championship tradition. Throw in the lagoon-sized pool of talent in SoCal that Ben Howland is currently recruiting from, and the UCLA post rises near the top. So why only No. 3? For one, UCLA's national relevance has only resurfaced in the last few seasons after a decade of dormancy. But another factor hurts the Bruins. The Pac-10 continues to suffer from a combination of Eastern Time Zone bedtimes and an absence from ESPN. Like their football counterparts, these leaders of the western hoops world don't get the advantage of tip-off countdown clocks and four different channels giving full circle coverage. While every Duke/UNC showdown stars on ABC, ESPN, or CBS, can you name the last time UCLA got an over-hyped showcase game? Sometimes it's not all about the basketball.

4. Kentucky; 5. Kansas — Two very similar programs take spots 4 and 5. Though the Jayhawks have been better over the last few seasons, give the Wildcats the edge based mostly on recruiting potential. Both programs have no problem throwing their weight around the national recruiting scene, but Kentucky can rely more on the basketball richness of its own backyard than Kansas. That slight edge makes UK a step up from KU. Ironically, both schools have experienced football a renaissance this season, but let's not kid ourselves: these two schools are both basketball country.

6. Indiana — What's all the rage about a school that, other than the run to the National Title Game in 2002, has been well off the national college hoops radar for going on two decades? Coming to Bloomington is a chance to earn your Knight-hood on a stage where the audience lusts for national glory. Like Kentucky and Kansas, Indiana is a basketball-centric corner of a college sports universe dominated by shoulder pads and shovel passes, and the head coach can count on a ready stable of local talent. The Hoosiers' slide from relevance accounts for their positioning here well below Kansas and Kentucky, but in its full cream-and-crimson glory, IU is as close to Big Ten hoops heaven as there is.

7. Florida — The Gators are certainly the new money in this group of mostly traditional powers. Under Billy Donovan, the Gators mostly underachieved until their torrid run of the last two seasons (though don't forget they were finalists in 2000). Now every high school prospect wants to come to Gainesville, and Donovan's rejection of SEC-chum Kentucky won't hurt his recruiting stance. Is it possible that the Gators caught lightening in a bottle with an exceptional core and key contributors over these two seasons? Sure. But with access to the rest of the state of Florida to the south and the (other than Kentucky) relatively accessible states of the southeast, the Gators have a chance to keep chomping at the bit for a while.

8. Georgetown — Great names (Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Allen Iverson, both John Thompsons), great basketball city (Washington, D.C.), great academics. Well, two of those things will help. Another school that has to be fighting the admissions board at some point, the Hoyas have reclaimed their spot near the throne of the college hoops world. Like other members of the old guard, Georgetown can point to the ancient (yes, the early-'80s are ancient to today's recruits) as well as the modern (2007 Final Four). There's still some work to do to show that this will last, but this is once again a premier job in college basketball.

9. Syracuse — In drafting these rankings, several teams made strong cases for this spot. Ten years ago, Arizona would have been much higher than here. Rick Pitino has picked up Denny Crum's legacy at Louisville. Several Big East and Big Ten schools have either the tradition or the current success to warrant this spot. But Syracuse can at least claim points in many of the major categories. The Orange have had stars that left legacies on the program (Carmelo Anthony, for one), access to both the recruiting pool and media market of New York City, and recent major success (2003 champs). Syracuse plays countless major showcase games each year regardless of their talent, and with all due respect to Rutgers and St. John's, the Orange can claim all five boroughs as home turf.

10. Gonzaga — Okay, okay ... I admit I cheated the rules here a little. While I certainly wouldn't expect the coaches of several schools not included on this list to leave their posts for Spokane, consider the brand name that 'Zags basketball has become. When you think of the Michigan States and Arizonas of the world, you can't help but identify with the faces of Tom Izzo and Lute Olsen. While Mark Few has certainly put his stamp on Gonzaga (with a starting boost from Dan Monson), the Bulldogs are better known for being a group of scrappy giant-killers. The 'Zags have managed to bring in a motley stream of talent from the foreign and distinguished (Rony Turiaf), to the quirky and counter-cultural (Adam Morrison), to the chemically inclined (Josh Heytvelt). How many programs have an identity that strong? This is a Cinderella program built to last well past midnight.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

Out With the Old and in With the Past

Firstly, a word about the way the Dodgers forced out Grady Little. Disgrace. Little may not be the greatest manager on the planet, but he did the best he could with the equipment GM Ned Colletti handed him. The job of a major league manager carries exaggerated importance and once Colletti failed to replace J.D. Drew's bat in the offseason, the Dodgers' fate was pretty much sealed, regardless of what Little did.

Sneaking around Joe Girardi until he made it clear he had Bronx tunnel-vision and then switching to Joe Torre was disrespectful to the proud Little. If Colletti and Frank McCourt wanted him out, they should have fired him in October and be done with it. But this is a franchise that leaves a bitter taste with its recent actions — unsurprising given that chief-plotter Tommy Lasorda is still as active as ever behind the scenes.

The job of filling out the lineup card and making bad bullpen moves falls to Joe Torre — he of the many rings, charity-giving wife, and hang-dog expression. In between fine-tuning his HOF speech and appearing at numerous showbiz bashes, he's expected to bring back the glory days to Chavez Ravine.

The NL is so poor (with the possible exception of the Mets) that it's not beyond fantasy that he could take the NL pennant in his first year. No doubt the local scribes, led by the groveling Bill Plaschke, will fall at his feet if he does so and harangue the Steinbrenner family for cutting him adrift, particularly if the Yankees suffer another mediocre season.

Making a success of the Dodgers wouldn't mean the Yankees were wrong to cut their ties with Torre.

When Torre got the Yankees job, it was a "WTF?" moment. Joe who? He had a mediocre managerial resume, but was the right man at the right time. Without the Yankees, he's just another .500 manager, so let's not start feeling too sorry for the guy. He had the glory years, the tougher years, and pocketed some major dough in the process.

Torre benefited hugely from some great work by GM Gene Michael and previous manager Buck Showalter. Michael had the core of the 1996-2000 lineup ready for Torre to work with, though Michael himself didn't get the chance to see them flourish. Bernie and Gerald Williams, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, John Wetteland, David Cone, Andy Pettitte, Ramiro Mendoza, Tino Martinez, Paul O'Neill, and the battery of catchers (Jim Leyritz, Jorge Posada, and Joe Girardi) were all in place for Torre in 1996. So too was a disciplined approach to work (something not associated with previous Yankee teams) instilled by Showalter.

That said, Torre did a great job of coaxing the best out of the difficult (David Wells, Darryl Strawberry, Jeff Nelson, David Justice) and the mediocre (Scott Brosius, Luis Sojo), as well as instilling the fundamentals in the young players. He steered a calm ship and won the respect of the players — and the envy of Steinbrenner. But Torre needed the Yankees in '96 as much as they needed him. Right guy, right time then, wrong guy, wrong time now.

So Torre gets three years to restore Dodger pride at less money than he described as "an insult" from Steinbrenner. Owner Frank McCourt has balked at the idea of giving away his cheap and prized farmhands for veterans, but Torre isn't there for the long haul and he will be knocking on Ned Colletti's door looking for immediate help even if it means losing one or more of Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, et al.

The popular theory is that Torre will coax Alex Rodriguez to Southern California. Isn't Torre the same guy who dropped A-Rod to eighth in the order during his slump last postseason, much to the players' disgust? Aren't the Dodgers the same team who slaughtered Scott Boras in the media when he got Drew to opt out of his contract last offseason?

That said, Boras would deal with Osama Bin Laden if he posted enough cash, so if McCourt authorizes the $300 million (which I seriously doubt), then A-Rod will be in Dodger blue for 2008.

My own theory on Rodriguez, for what it's worth, is that Boras may have seriously misjudged the market for his client.

The obvious first contender is the Red Sox, the next big player in the market after the Yankees. They are feigning disinterest, even in shifting him to shortstop to replace the failed Julio Lugo experiment. He seems a bad fit in a tight locker room and Theo Epstein wants the financial wiggle room to tie-up his younger players to long-term contracts. He also prefers locker room good guy and fan favorite Mike Lowell back. Despite Manny's $19 million a year coming off the books after next year, there seems no interest yet in A-Rod from Fenway.

That leaves Los Angeles as the next obvious destination. Arte Moreno has made noises about a big splash in the market for a free agent bat, but this kind of money would scare anyone. The Angels are upwardly mobile financially and may pull the trigger, but Moreno has no track record of anything other than hoarding cheap prospects and picking up Gary Matthews, Jr. or Shea Hillenbrand types. Ditto the McCourt's.

The Marlins, Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Braves, Twins, Cubs, and Mets have all been thrown into the mix, but some of these scenarios are ridiculous (Marlins, Twins), have been tried before and failed (Mariners, Rangers), don't fit because there's nowhere to play him (Mets), or fail the financial due-diligence test (Braves: too mean; Cubs: uncertain ownership situation; Giants: ludicrous money committed to Barry Zito). The Tigers could come into play as they have the need and some financial muscle, but could they afford to be paying a 40-year-old (with a Baseball Prospectus estimated VORP in the region of 3) $30 million a year in 2015?

That leaves the obvious contender as the Yankees. They desperately need a big bat at third, can afford to waste money on unproductive players at the end of their contracts (Jason Giambi will earn $21 million next year, Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano $11 million each, Johnny Damon $13 million) and offer a guaranteed shot at a ring every year.

Cashman has stated he won't negotiate with Boras once the player opts out of his contract. We'll see if that line-in-the-sand holds once he notices that Wilson Betemit is penciled in at third. As for Boras, if he can't scare the light-hitting Los Angeles teams into a bid or sell the home run record chase to the Giants he's left with the Yankees or Boston if he wants $300 million. If Boston bites — and they've lusted after him before — Cashman can simply pounce on the surplus Lowell at $11-13 million a year.

So what of Joe Girardi in New York? He's got one season of over-achievement with youngsters in Florida on his resume and some solid work on YES. This hardly makes him Casey Stengel, but he's cheap — thus easy to fire, keen as mustard, and a house-man. Whether his rah-rah act will work on grizzled veterans, some of whom played with him, is open to question.

The really interesting scenario in New York is the Cashman/Randy Levine power battle. Levine wants his Tampa power base back in the ascendancy now Torre is out of the equation and he's trying to get the ear of the Steinbrenner sons to do it. Cashman wants to continue calling the shots and building a farm system that can produce quality home-growns, as is the Boston model. So far, the Steinbrenners like Cashman's blueprint for the future, especially as they've been burnt in the free agent pitching market in recent years and Cashman has Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes ready for 2008. The love for Cashman could fade with another early exit in October or a long-distance second in the AL East. Levine will be hovering waiting to pounce.

If the Yankees are serious about getting younger, they should offer Manny Rivera one year at $13 million or so, regardless of sentiment. He'll likely refuse. Joe Nathan is available next year and the Twins can't afford him now they are out of club options. He's younger and better than Rivera, who can't get Boston hitters out anymore. Nathan has a 0.71 ERA against Boston. One year with Joba closing until Nathan can be signed won't hurt.

If Pettitte retires, then so be it. He was patchy in 2007 and isn't exactly cheap. Posada would be a greater loss, though he's unlikely to repeat his 2007 numbers with another year on his knees. Despite that, he's stability behind the plate and in the clubhouse.

Girardi's brief is to bring back the mystique of '98, when there was clubhouse harmony and hardly a losing day in the calendar — Paulie, Tino, Brosius, and Bernie, with Chucky butchering it at second and Captain Courageous leading the troops into October. The present day pinstripers just can't compete with those memories in the minds of the fans — and more importantly, the ownership. With their big pay checks and gaudy stats, both fans and owners expect a ring year-in, year-out.

The trouble is all those guys have retired bar Jeter, who's now nine years older and Captain GIDP. Some of them weren't that good in reality, but were a good fit at the time and over-achieved. Meanwhile, everybody else has got stronger with all the money floating around in the game and it's harder to win the big prize.

So the media and the fans trot out the old standard mantra — they're rich guys who don't care and have no heart. It's a convenient bleat and it's mostly crap. How come minimum wage guys never get accused of "not caring?" Chien-Ming Wang pitched like Sidney Ponson in the ALDS, but because he only earns $475,000 a year, he gets a mulligan, whereas A-Rod gets crucified, even for hitting a solo homer, as if he was personally responsible for the fact that nobody could get on base ahead of him.

As Billy Beane says, the playoffs are a crap shoot, dependent on injuries, who's hot and who's not, mating insects, the weather, and plain luck. If Girardi and Torre make the 2008 version, the season should be considered a success. Remember this — a couple of weeks ago, the Red Sox were down 3-1 to the Tribe with C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona to come. They were looking at a long winter of discontent. Now they're a dynasty — the franchise everybody wants to ape.

Posted by Mike Round at 11:07 AM | Comments (0)

November 3, 2007

The A-Rod Conundrum

(Meanwhile, somewhere inside Greg Wyshynski's noggin...)

NY METS FAN: You know, I've been spending time thinking about my two most favorite subjects recently: how the Mets can win the World Series, and how Yankees fans can continue to be shoved down the path of redoubtable sorrow and immense anguish that has presented itself as their dynasty crumbles brick by brick. And I keep coming back to the same two words: "Alex" and "Rodriguez."

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: Oh dear God. I can see this is one of those conversations ... like the time you swore you saw a holy visage of Keith Hernandez in a Harvest Cheddar SunChip and felt it was a sign that the Mets would beat the Cardinals in the NLCS.

NY METS FAN: But it was him, right down to the 1970s-style porno mustache! I can see what you're getting at, though: you think A-Rod on the Mets is the mistake of all mistakes; a Tom Seaver-to-the-Reds for a new generation.

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: Actually, being a rational human, I can see several sides to the issue. Let's start with the obvious: there is no other man currently on the face of the Earth who can put up 143 runs, 183 hits, 31 doubles, 54 home runs, and 156 RBI with a .314 batting average over the course of a major league season. Put A-Rod in this lineup, and he could be the spark to ignite this smoldering murder's row.

NY METS FAN: Now we're talking! Even David Wright agrees that 54 home runs are important. He said so on "The Daily Show" recently, which isn't as funny as "The Colbert Report" or that other fake newscast with Katie Couric.

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: Okay, since you brought that up: Wright is clearly one of the best third basemen in the Majors. Jose Reyes is rock-solid at shortstop. Moises Alou is playing left field. A-Rod isn't going to play second base, so where would you play him?

NY METS FAN: You know, I've been hearing a lot about this infield logjam as a reason not to sign A-Rod. I think you can move Wright to second base, even if Omar Minaya signs Luis Castillo. Because you make room for 54 homers and 156 RBI. It doesn't matter how, it doesn't matter where. You make room.

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: Getting back to what you mentioned before — David Wright on "The Daily Show." The topic of chemistry came up...

NY METS FAN: ...look, I know A-Rod isn't a saint. In fact, he's a royal pain in the ass. Didn't his agent want A-Rod to have his own office or something in Shea Stadium last time we tried to sign him?

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: I don't know, but I do know that Jon Stewart — smart guy, big Mets fan — called A-Rod "bad medicine" and the "Dick Cheney of baseball." You don't want the Dick Cheney of baseball on the Mets, do you?

NY METS FAN: Depends on who he's taking hunting.

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: What about a more functional question, like whether signing another bat is really what the Mets need this offseason? Last season, New York scored 804 runs and gave up 750. Starting pitching failed down the stretch, and middle relief became a problem late in the season.

NY METS FAN: You're telling me you wouldn't sign A-Rod because who want to save a little scratch for the second coming of Lee Guetterman? Is that all you've got?

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: Okay, I see I have to bring out the big guns. What about the booing? What about fans loathing a player, even with such dynamic offensive output in the regular season? What about the .133 batting average in 2005, or the .071 in 2006, or the .267 with one RBI this season? Kenny Lofton had 4 RBI in the ALDS, and he's old enough to be A-Rod's father.

NY METS FAN: He became a dad at 8-years-old?

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: It's hyperbole, idiot. Just like it's hyperbole to believe A-Rod to be a cure-all for a Mets team that has more holes in its rotation than a block of Swiss. Just like it's delusional to believe that A-Rod somehow fits on this team, either in chemistry or in practicality. You're blinded by the numbers, blinded by the legend, and blinded by your intense hatred for the New York Yankees and the desire to see A-Rod "stick it" to them by bringing a World Series title to Flushing. So I ask you, after all of that: is that rational thinking?

NY METS FAN: Well, that's what separates me and you, doesn't it? I'm the part of the brain that drops a few hundred dollars on playoff tickets when our car is one speed-bump away from the scrap heap. And yeah: I'm the guy who wants to believe that A-Rod won't continue to be a tabloid target, a loathsome teammate and a postseason calamity. I'm not supposed to like him, and I don't like him; to be honest, he embodies everything I dislike about pampered athletes who get paid too much and fail miserably when it counts. But there's something about his divorce from the Yankees that makes this option seem so ... I don't know ... delectable. The idea that they could lose A-Rod, they could lose Posada, we could bring them both to the Mets and then win with their guys...

RATIONAL HUMAN BEING: ...confirms that the Mets, much like the Red Sox, are no better than the Yankees when it comes to buying a world championship. How can you stomach that?

NY METS FAN: Honestly? I've built up one hell of a tolerance to that bile for the last 21 years. And that's why, for all of the potential disasters and for all the wrong reasons, A-Rod can be on our side come Opening Day 2008 and I wouldn't give a damn.

Greg Wyshynski is also a weekly columnist for SportsFan Magazine. His columns appear every Saturday on Sports Central. You can e-mail Greg at [email protected].

Posted by Greg Wyshynski at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

November 1, 2007

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 9

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-3 ½)

After last week's 24-23 loss to Jacksonville, Tampa has now lost two straight games in which they out-gained their opponent by a handy margin. After three interceptions by the normally infallible Jeff Garcia, John Gruden is preaching ball-security as the Bucs prepare to host the Cardinals.

"Garcia's been carrying us all year," says Gruden, "so he's entitled to a few mistakes. I'm still the skipper of this ship, and he's still my first mate. And there's the professor, John Clayton, and the movie star, Michael Clayton. God knows why they made the movie Michael Clayton about a receiver who has only six catches on the year. Come on, George Clooney doesn't look a bit like Michael Clayton, although Clooney had just as many catches as Clayton in the Jacksonville game. Anyway, we're all on this island together, and unless we can fashion a consistent running game out of coconuts, some vines, and salt water, we're destined to crash the SS Minnow on a deserted island known as '8-8.'"

Arizona entered their bye week just as they exited it — one game behind the Seahawks for the division lead. Kurt Warner has had two weeks the rest his ailing left arm, and his treatment regimen of rest, prayer, and a snake-handling faith healer has worked wonders. In other words, it still hurts like hell.

"I know my recovery is imminent," says Warner, "because I know the Lord has faith in me. But that son of a gun must have had a lot more faith in me back in 1999 when he gave me the strength to lead the Rams to the Super Bowl."

Arizona wins, 21-20.

Carolina @ Tennessee (-4)

The Titans may have home-field advantage, but that's something that doesn't strike a bit of fear into the Carolina Panthers, as all four Carolina wins this year have come on the road. What really frightens the Panthers, besides a home game, is deciding which injury-riddled and barely-capable quarterback to put on the field, who, inevitably, will be unable to get the ball to Carolina's best offensive weapon, Steve Smith. Do you play the carbon-dated Vinny Testaverde, who has an injured Achilles heel, or David Carr, who's suffering from a nagging back injury and an even more nagging inability to show any type of redeemable quarterbacking ability whatsoever?

"As a coach," says John Fox, "it's not a great position to be in. But boy, I do love the smell of Ben Gay in the morning. Heck, if Ben was a quarterback, he'd be starting for us. Vinny's been around; he's dealt with an Achilles injury before. In fact, his first Achilles injury happened just a few days after the original Achilles went down with the injury. So, Vinny just missed having the injury called 'Testaverde's Heel.' Anyway, there's old in them there heels. As for David, there's way too much mileage on that Carr. With David, we've got to look out for his safety. No, I don't mean the possibility of injury from a defender. I'm more worried about Steve Smith whipping his tail because Carr can't get him the ball."

The Titans are winning the Jeff Fisher way, with a bruising running game, an aggressive defense, and passing statistics from Vince Young that, like his Wonderlic score, you can count on one finger. Young was 6-of-14 for 42 yards in the Titans' 13-9 win over the Raiders last week.

"I'm not asking Vince to perform miracles," says Fisher. "Like, for example, completing 50% of his passes. However, if he needs to, I know he's capable of miracles. I've seen him do it. Once, he turned $1.39 into a 40 ounce bottle of malt liquor. And, I've seen him take a single credit card and feed the entire team. Amazing. He's a miracle worker. Eat your heart out Annie Sullivan."

The Panthers need a miracle of their own, in the form of a quarterback who can get Steve Smith the ball. When Smith is involved, the Panthers win. When he's not, they lose. Whatever it takes, the Panthers should field a quarterback who can get the ball to Smith, and/or an offensive coordinator who realizes that Smith is at his disposal. I don't know how, but Smith catches 8 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. Carolina stays perfect on the road with a 19-17 win. What a rush!

Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+1)

Trailing the Steelers 14-3 in the first half, facing a 4th-and-1 at the Pittsburgh two-yard line, Marvin Lewis elected to kick a field goal instead of going for the touchdown, or at the very least the first down. It's understandable if Lewis showed no faith in his defense, but to pull Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, and T.J. Houshmandzedah off the field in that situation is downright stupid.

"I think Coach Lewis has Jungle Fever," says Chad Johnson. "We've got black stripes on our helmet; he's got a large, yellow one running down the length of his back. I've seen more guts in the inner workings of a toilet. We're the Bengals. We should have roared like tigers in that situation. Instead, we mewed like a cat in heat, which unfortunately is a sign of vulnerability, letting all the tom cats in the neighborhood know that we're easy pickings. And the Steelers pounced and had their way with us. We need to know that Coach Lewis has faith in us. He isn't the greatest of communicators. He just doesn't command your attention. I mean, come on, would anyone have listened to General George Patton were he holding himself up on a crunch and sporting the most dumbfounded, confused look one could imagine? I doubt it."

The Bills have won two in a row to firmly establish themselves as the AFC East second-best team. Not that that's necessarily anything to be that proud of, but the Bills can take comfort in the fact that they are one of the few teams the Patriots didn't run up the score on. They're not world beaters, but the Bills probably do lead the NFL in one category, and that's effort.

"There's one thing I can always expect from this team," says a proud Dick Jauron, "and that's the maximum. And Marvin Lewis shouldn't be discouraged. He can get the same from his players. However, it will be at the sentencing phase of their disciplinary hearings with NFL commissioner Roger 'The Impaler' Goodell."

The pressure's off the Bengals; they aren't playing for a playoff berth. So, they can go out, give it their all, and not worry about the consequences. And still lose, mind you. But this time, the Bengals pull out all the stops, and run every trick play in their book, including a new one recently implemented, called the "Statute of Limitations" play, which results in a touchdown to Chad Johnson, who, sadly, won't be able to celebrate until next season, when he's playing for another team capable of reaching the .500 plateau. Cincinnati wins, 27-23.

Denver @ Detroit (-3 ½)

At 5-2 with two wins over the defending NFC champion Chicago Bears, the Lions may be the league's most surprising team. At least to everyone but themselves. But surprises are nothing new in Detroit. For the last several years, after disappointing seasons, Matt Millen has been surprised to find that he still has a job. Now, Millen is showing the confidence you'd expect to find in a man who's finally got it right after 12 to 15 misses.

"Hey, if you play Bingo long enough," says Jon Kitna, in his birthday suit, "you're bound to get Bingo. And you can best believe Millen is saying 'Bingo' every time you see him. He's already smoking victory cigars, looking like a bloated version of Gomez Addams of The Addams Family. It's creepy and it's kookey, delirious and looney. It's altogether screwy, the Millen Dynasty. Neat. Sweet. Petite!"

Red zone inefficiency continues to haunt the Broncos. In their 19-13 loss to the Packers, the Broncos lost a fumble at the Packer one-yard line in the first half, and had to settle for a tying field goal instead of the winning touchdown as time wound down in regulation. Once again, Jason Elam had the last kick of the game, but it wasn't a game-winner.

"Obviously, not having Travis Henry available for the game was a buzz kill," says Mike Shanahan. "One would think medicinal herb would cure what ails him, but apparently Travis' tolerance for pain is trumped by his tolerance for the sweet leaf. Don't expect me to sweat it, or break into a Black Sabbath song. But I'm a master of reality. I know our running game is the key to our red zone success. I promise you, we'll run the ball against the Lions. In fact, we'll ram it down their throats. But first, we'll soften them up with a shipment of Rocky Mountain oysters for their enjoyment."

Detroit wins, 24-17.

Green Bay @ Kansas City (-1)

If there were any doubters left who questioned the validity of the Packers' fast start this season, their doubts were silenced by the rocket arm of Brett Favre, who slung the game-winning touchdown pass to Greg Jennings as the Packers beat the Broncos 19-13 in overtime. As he proved, Favre can toss a sizzling spiral into a bottle of Prilosec from 60 yards, into the wind, while milking a heifer and taking aim on a buck in his .30-.30 from 300 yards. Or, more impressively, he can hit two Packer receivers in stride who just raced by two overrated Denver cornerbacks for touchdowns of at least 79 yards.

"Put her in the old vice grip!" says Favre, using a time-honored Mississippi term for a firm handshake, or maybe, just maybe, revealing a dark, twisted, and sadistic side of the quarterback that few know about. "Say what you will about the velocity of my passes, but if you look at my throwing motion in slow-motion, you'll see that my mechanics have not changed. Check it out in super slow-motion, you'll see that my speed still tops that of Chad Pennington."

Herman Edwards and the Chiefs will try to put a stop to a Packer team that's already smoked two of the Chiefs' AFC West counterparts. It will likely take more than the 14 points per game the Chiefs are averaging so far this year.

"'You play to win the game.' Oh sorry, that was my cell phone ring tone," says Herman Edwards. "For more statements of the obvious, buy my new book, 'Obvious Statements That Are Supposed to Sound Wise and Prophetic, But Don't: The New Book by Herman Edwards.' As for the Packers, we've got to shut down their running game. By that I mean keeping Favre from sprinting 80 yards downfield after a long touchdown pass."

Green Bay shuts down Larry Johnson, and Favre connects with Donald Driver for a score. Packers win, 20-13.

Jacksonville @ New Orleans (3 ½)

It's J'ville versus K'ville as the cayenne pepper-hot Saints go for their fourth consecutive win. The Saints are finally looking like the team that played in last year's NFC title game, and have found the offensive balance that played a large role in last year's run. Last week, Drew Brees passed for 336 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the Saints rushed for 102 yards.

"It's all about motivation," says Sean Payton. "And I'm a big proponent of motivational films. There's 'Rudy,' 'The Longest Yard,' 'The Sting,' 'Black Sunday,' 'The Sound of Music,' 'The Eiger Sanction,' 'The Shaggy D.A.,' and the 11 movies in the 'Rocky' series. All those get me bouncing off the walls, especially when combined with an eight ball and a half a pint of absinthe. And a transvestite never hurts. But where the heck can you find that in New Orleans? Anyway, I prefer a movie that hits a little more close to home. It's one I personally produced and directed, about a Vietnam veteran on the loose in New Orleans who wants nothing more than the love of his country, or anyone for that matter. It's called 'Rambeaux: First Stud.'"

The Jags rebounded from their loss to Indy with a huge 24-23 win in Tampa, which earned them a 5-2 record and the unofficial title of "Florida's best team," for which they were rewarded with a bushel of grapefruit, a boogie board, and a free cruise to Cuba. The Jags ran the ball 44 times, but won on Quinn Gray's pass to Matt Jones.

"I think Gray showed a lot of heart," says a beaming Jack Del Rio, "despite only going 7-of-16 for 100 yards. It that kind of performance that sends a message, and that's a message to David Garrard that says 'Get Well Soon.'"

It will likely take more than one good pass from Gray to beat the Saints. Is it in him? No, but he's filled to the brim with Gatorade. Saints win, 20-17.

San Diego @ Minnesota (+7)

Hot off their third-straight win after a 1-3 start, the Chargers and LaDainian Tomlinson head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings and rookie sensation Adrian Peterson on the neatly-trimmed carpet of the Metrodome. Tomlinson, known as one of the most humble superstars in the NFL, is not afraid to express his admiration for Peterson.

"Sleek. A fine specimen. With the desire to go all the way at any moment," says Tomlinson. "Sure, those sound like the words you'd expect to hear from the talent coordinator for a Viking cruise on Lake Minnetonka. But you can also use those to describe Adrian. He's impressive. How impressive? Very. But not as impressive as seeing a manualist play Iron Maiden's four-minute opus 'The Trooper' in its entirety, with just his hands! Now, that's impressive. For those of you that have been under a rock for just the last few seconds, a manualist is someone who manipulates his hands together, causing suction that creates a squeaking sound. Now, what's even more impressive is finding someone who admits to this talent, much less one who can play the guitar parts of the signature song of a legendary British metal band named after a 19th-century torture device."

I consider myself enlightened, L.T. But you're still the best running back in the NFL. What's more, you claimed the title of "Best Costume" at the Chargers Halloween Gala with your version of Mexican super hero, crime fighter, and politician "El Escroto." So, kudos to you, too. Anyway, the Chargers' acquisition of wide receiver Chris Chambers from the Dolphins paid immediate dividends, for the Chargers and for Chambers. Chambers scored a touchdown in San Diego's 35-10 win over Houston, and Chambers went from an 0-8 team to a 4-3 contender. Chambers is thanking his lucky stars, and Chad Johnson is envious.

Tomlinson is in costume again, this time as a decoy. You can't beat the Vikings defense at the line of scrimmage, but any other yard marker beyond that is fair, and easy game. Philip Rivers tosses three touchdown passes, one to Chambers, one to Tomlinson, and one to Antonio Gates. San Diego wins, 27-14.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-3)

Talk about a team in turmoil. The Falcons are 1-6, the players hate the coach, and the coach hates the players. And Bobby Petrino is calling Tom Coughlin for advice. Petrino just fined DeAngelo Hall $50,000 for Hall's criticism after Petrino released veteran defensive tackle Grady Jackson.

"Just call it a contribution to the 'I Hate Petrino Fund,'" says Hall. "You might as well sign me up for the automatic weekly payroll deduction to that cause. Petrino's a control freak. I don't know where he gets off treating Grady like that. I mean, the whole city's upset. Outkast just released a new song, 'I'm Sorry, Mr. Jackson.' Seriously, the only person allowed to treat Grady like that is Fred Sanford. If Petrino and I continue to clash like this, it's going to be time for the big one. And I'll explode with a stream of expletives that would make Redd Foxx blush. I know we had the obligatory 'talk it out' session, but that's just window dressing. We still hate each other."

The 49ers may be the league's most offensively inept team, averaging only 12 points per game. Their running game is nonexistent, quarterback play is erratic, and Mike Nolan accidentally laundered his "dry clean only" suits.

"To be blunt," says Nolan, "we've got a case of acute pansiatis. In other words, we're playing like pansies. But that does place us No. 1 in the NFL's 'Flower Rankings.' But we've got to rally around whichever quarterback can light a spark under us. It's either going to be Alex Smith, who's still suffering the effects of a shoulder separation, or Trent Dilfer, whose impressive, two-page resume includes a Super Bowl title. Actually, that's all his resume includes; 'Super Bowl champion' is just written in really big letters."

Which team is right there with San Fran in offensive ineptitude? Why, it's the Falcons, who average only 13 points a game. Hall plays his best game of the season, with an interception, and only curses out two Atlanta coaches. He then douses Petrino with a cooler of Gatorade pushed off the mezzanine level in the Georgia Dome. And even gets an assist from San Fran kicker Joe Nedney, who gives Petrino the finger. Falcons win, 24-10.

Washington @ NY Jets (+3 1/2)

Washington was skinned, tarred, and feathered in their 52-7 loss to the Patriots that resonated right to the very core of the White House, where President Bush offered a stately admonishing of Bill Belichick and New England, saying the actions of the Patriots equated to "aiding the terrorists." However, Bush stated, despite the tragic circumstances of the beating, he was pretty sure Halliburton could make some money off of it, and somebody would probably get shot by an employee, or several employees, of Blackwater Security.

"Look, we got beat so bad we're getting a casino," says Redskins coach Joe Gibbs. "If you missed the game, you can catch a replay on ESPN's Instant Massacre. We got ''Chick Fil-A'd.' Now I know how the Broncos felt after Super Bowl 22. In all seriousness, though, I thought it was quite classless of the Patriots to run up the score like they did, but they more than made up for it with the classy act of handing us our asses on a silver platter."

The Jets are finally making the long-awaited quarterback change, seven weeks in the making, as Eric Mangini has made the decision to start Kellen Clemens. Mangini, after much deliberation, and a quick glance at Chad Pennington's quarterback rating and hairdo, decided that starting Clemens would give the Jets the best chance at winning, and also would give them the best chance of Pennington not playing.

"Actually, I used the same criteria I've always used to make the tough decisions," says Mangini. "I'm a genius, so I examine a lot of numbers, formulas, algebraic equations, and algorithms to reach what a feel is the right choice. If all of that fails, I go to my old trusty stand-by: 'Mangini-meenie-minie-mo.'"

The Redskins are steaming, embarrassed, disgraced, and all the other adjectives used to describe the resulting emotions after a 52-7 beating. Sorry Jets, you got next. Washington wins, 27-20.

Seattle @ Cleveland (-1)

What question are you likely not to hear when Mike "Rotunda" Holmgren and Romeo "Much Ado About Gluttony" Crenel cross paths in the Dawg Pound?

"Where's the beef?" says competitive eating icon Takeru Kobayashi.

Okay, what question are you likely to hear?

"When do we eat?" replies Kobayashi.

Enough with the nonsense, you Japanese stomach-expanding freak. This ain't Coney Island. This is the Dawg Pound, and the name's got nothing to do with hot dogs. It's the bleacher section in the east end zone of Cleveland Browns Stadium, and, for the first time is ages, there's actually a little mystique returning to the Pound.

"That's right," says Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson. "There's something called offense here now. Isn't that surprising? You wouldn't think the defensive mind behind the Patriots' three Super Bowl titles could build an offense, would you? That kind of thing's not working too well in Cincinnati, is it? We wear our orange with a little more pride, and a lot less confinement. Sure, our defense sucks just like the Bengals,' but we're able to score more than our defense gives up. And that, my friend, is the secret to winning at this game."

The Seahawks lead the NFC West, but they are not the team that advanced to last year's divisional round, and they definitely are not the team that played in Super Bowl XL. Call it age, call it parity, call it what you will. But it doesn't help matters when Shaun Alexander is auditioning touchdown celebrations from 'N Sync has-been Joey Fatone when Alexander should simply be concentrating on finding the end zone.

"Hey, it's not my fault all the commercials starring NFL players besides Peyton Manning aren't the least bit funny," says Alexander. "Peyton's set the bar so high, and has cornered the market in the 'slapstick goofiness with a touch of bravado' category. I guess when my playing days are done, I'm destined to star in movies with Howie Long."

Seahawks win, 27-24.

Houston @ Oakland (-3)

The Texans and the Raiders scored a combined 19 points last week in losses to the Chargers and Titans, respectively, and both teams now occupy last place in the their respective divisions, the AFC South and AFC West. Not much is at stake, least of all respect, when the injury-plagued Texans head to the "BlackAfee Hole" in Oakland, home of the Raiders. But you can count on one thing: neither team will be accused of running up the score on the other. In fact, the term "running up the score," as it applies to this game, most likely would refer to one of the teams kicking the game-winning field goal.

"There's two things you can do when a team runs up the score on you," says Raider owner Al Davis. "You can take it, or you can do something about. If a team would have beat, let's say, the 1976 Raiders by a score of 52-7, you can best believe Jack Tatum would have laid someone out, or Ted Hendricks would have collected several eyeballs, or Lester Hayes would have sealed each of someone's seven orifices with a handful of stickum. If, somehow, the opposition would have escaped those heinous punishments, then I would have simply had them executed, stuffed, and mounted on my office wall. Now, had a team beat this year's Raider team 52-7, I would have first guessed that Art Shell was coaching, then I would have exacted revenge on the offending team by trading them our best player for a fourth-round pick.

If they're lucky, the Raiders will get to play "Thump The Schaub" with Houston quarterback Matt Schaub, who's been knocked up, down, sideways, silly, and stupid this year. Maybe David Carr wasn't that bad. Nah, just ask the Panthers. He sucks. Or the Raiders may get a taste of Sage Rosenfels. Either way, the banged up Texans go down the Black Hole counterclockwise. Oakland wins, 22-17.

New England @ Indianapolis (+4 1/2)

The Patriots whipped the Redskins 52-7 and needed every bit of those 52 points, as the 'Skins mounted a late comeback, scoring seven unanswered points, but falling just short. Now, armed with the confidence of repelling that comeback, as well as an 8-0 record, the Patriots head to Indianapolis to face the 7-0 Colts in a dream matchup, the NFL's first between teams with 7-0 records or better.

"Trust me," says Tom Brady, "I'm not a stranger to dream matchups. I'm dating a supermodel, so I practically have one every night. Sometimes twice. Talk about a fantasy team. Peyton Manning, on the other hand, well, he's actually gone to adult video stores and asked to see game tape. And his relationship with his playbook is less than savory. In fact, it's downright scandalous. In some states, Manning and his playbook would be married by common law. Of course, in some states, it would not be legally binding, but it would be spirally binding."

Yo, Peyton.

"Yeah, what's up, man?"

There go that team they call New England.

"They all stuck up."

Why you say that?

"'Cause they got busted cheating, copped an attitude, then started running up the score on helpless teams under the guise of 'just playing' football. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Back in my college days, if I could have ran up the score on the Florida Gators, I would have. But it's hard to run up the score when you're losing. As for the Patriots, I know they're playing like an untouchable force organization. But somebody tell me why teams continue to let Mike Vrabel get open when he's in on offense. If Vrabel's in, double-team him! As for the 'fake spike,' I thought it was a great play by Brady. But the offensive interference on Randy Moss was better, and was made more impressive by the fact that the officials didn't call it. This game will be a war. I just hope there will be a clear winner."

New England is scoring 41 points a game. Will they score that against the Colts? No. The Pats are giving up 16 a game. Will Indy top that? Yes. Of course, New England will score more than the 15 a game the Colts are giving up. So, basically, stats are meaningless. It all boils down to good versus evil. The Colts wear white, don't they? Adam Vinatieri kicks the game-winner, and Indianapolis wins one for the commoners, 29-26.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (+3)

If the last-place Eagles want to get back into the NFC East race, they absolutely have to beat the Cowboys, who ride in from the dude ranch with a 6-1 record and the arrogance of an NFC powerhouse that knows it has no chance to win the Super Bowl. Philly could close to within two games of the Cowboys with a win on Sunday. To do so, Donovan McNabb will have to outduel the Cowboys and Tony Romo, who just locked in a six-year, $67 million contract extension.

"Hey, everything's all hunky-dorry with Romo," says Donovan McNabb. "He's the $67 million dollar man, and he's out celebrating with his handler Oscar Goldman and 'The Tabloid Skankazoid' Britney Spears. Just a word to the wise, Tony, before you take the snap from center, be aware of where it's been. Anyway, I know the Cowboys and Romo will come to Philly with guns blazing, but I've got a little side piece of my own. No, wait. That's just my intestines poking me in the side."

The Philly fans will certainly have a cold reception for Terrell Owens, but that won't bother T.O.

"Hey, I'll be surprised if I can even make it to the stadium," says Owens, "Because I burned so many bridges getting out of this city, how will I get back? Oh, that's right. I'll fly, first class, with Dallas owner Jerry Jones."

But there's a surprise waiting for Owens at the Philadelphia International Airport. It's Philly mafia maniacs Vinnie and Joey, who just happen to be meeting country-western legend Willie Nelson for an exchange of a briefcase full of money for a planeload full of weed. Before Owens knows what hits him, Nelson, Vinnie, and Joey break into a moving rendition of "Mommas Don't Let Your Cowboys Grow Up to Be Babies." Then the two thugs try to 'smoke" Owens, but the crafty veteran gets them to bite on an in route, then goes deep, and escapes.

Dallas wins, 24-19.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-9 1/2)

Negative emotions always run high when the Ravens and Steelers engage, and Monday night's battle at Heinz Field will be no different. Unlike Ravens' receivers, the hatred runs deep. The winner stakes claim to the outright division lead in the AFC North, arguably, top to bottom, the NFL's best division. To challenge the Steelers, Brian Billick will have to come up with a game plan to spark the stagnant Ravens offense, which usually moves at a snail's pace over sandpaper.

"I'm more worried about the Ravens defense than their offense," says Mike Tomlin, who goes by the nickname 'Kool' to the Steelers' 'Gang.' "The Baltimore offense is comical, much like an NFL official giving the 'juggling' signal to indicate a player did not have possession of the ball. I don't care who you are, that's funny. Git 'r done. When I think of 'offensive wizardry,' I don't think of Brian Billick. I picture Merlin the Magician lifting his robe like a dirty old man."

It will take more than a magic wand for Baltimore to find the necessary firepower to beat a Steelers team that surrenders fewer points than any team in the NFL. A 10-0 shutout would cover the spread, but I think the Ravens will sneak in a touchdown somewhere along the way. Sources tell me that the scoreboard operator at Heinz Field is a gambling-addicted boozer who can be bought. Pittsburgh wins, 20-7.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:43 AM | Comments (0)

Five Months to March

When you look at the Missouri Valley Conference going into the 2007-08 season, it's tempting to focus only on all the talent that's gone.

Of the 10 teams combined, only 24 starters return. The losses include Nate Funk and Anthony Tolliver of Creighton, Jamaal Tatum and Tony Young of Southern Illinois, Blake Ahearn of Missouri State, Will Franklin and Zach Andrews of Bradley, Grant Stout and Brooks McKowen of Northern Iowa, Ajay Calvin of Drake, Matt Webster of Evansville, and Kyle Wilson and Sean Ogirri of Wichita State.

That's eight of the conference's top 10 scorers, three of the top five rebounders, two of the top three shot blockers and the assists leader from last year.

And not a single Top-150 recruit to replace them according to the people who judge such things at ESPN.

And five new coaches, the single largest year-over-year turnover in the league since 1978-79.

Doom and gloom, right?

Not quite.

While most of the faces are new, the Valley is in a much better place than when the aforementioned group of seniors made their unceremonious debuts four or five years ago. (Of Rivals' top 150 lists in 2003, 2004 and 2005, Missouri State's Drew Richards received the highest ranking at 110.)

Five reasons why you should not expect a major drop-off in Valley production:

5. Not only has the Valley's conference tournament (Arch Madness) become one of the most well-attended in the country, commissioner Doug Elgin's tireless work in partnership with ESPN has made the Valley the flagship conference of the annual Bracketbusters series in February.

Last year, the Valley appeared on national TV 61 times, and it's expected to eclipse that number this year, with College GameDay even covering the Creighton/SIU game from Carbondale on January 26. The other games the Gameday crew will attend are Kentucky/Florida, Arizona/UCLA, Georgetown/Louisville, Michigan State/Indiana, Tennessee/Memphis, Kansas State/Kansas, and North Carolina/Duke, so this is a major "welcome to the club" moment for Elgin.

Also, it means money. At Monday's Media Day, Elgin said the Valley will make the largest average institutional distribution in November in his 20 years "by far." And it's also how the Valley will fund its planned new headquarters next to the Scottrade Center in St. Louis (ground breaking scheduled for next year).

Note: This may be the last year of Arch Madness. The Valley sent out requests for proposals (RFPs) from Chicago, Des Moines, Kansas City, and Omaha, in addition to St. Louis. Chicago didn't reply, so it's down to the other four, with an announcement expected in mid-November. (They'd be absolutely crazy to leave St. Louis, which has an excellent track record hosting NCAA events.)

Women's Note: The women's side of the Valley has finally moved their conference tournament from a host school to a neutral site to a suburb outside St. Louis. For those of you who follow the women's game, you know this is a major move forward for the league. And it was the first thing out of every coach's mouth at Media Day.

4. A lot of times, a major turnover in coaching would indicate a weakness in the overall conference profile. But that's not the case with this group of new coaches.

The changes listed below were a direct result of the athletic departments at Wichita State, Indiana State, Illinois State, Evansville, and Drake knowing they had to step it up to compete in the Valley. And, in most cases, they are upgrades from the men who previously held the positions (no disrespect intended).

The new guys:

Gregg Marshall, Wichita State: In nine years at Winthrop, Marshall's teams went 194-83 overall (104-24 Big South) and made NCAA Tournament appearances in each of the past three years (almost beating Tennessee in 2006 as a 15 seed and knocking out Notre Dame last year as an 11 seed). His team last year not only went 29-5 and 14-0 in conference, they won at Missouri State in the Bracketbusters series to essentially seal the NIT fate of the Bears.

An interesting note: When Elgin found out former Shockers coach Mark Turgeon was leaving for Texas A&M, he personally helped in the recruiting of Marshall to Wichita, calling him up and extolling the virtues of the Valley. And that's why Elgin is one of the best commissioners in the country, college or pro.

Kevin McKenna, Indiana State: McKenna brings the best of both worlds with extensive Valley experience as an assistant to Dana Altman at Creighton (where he also played from 1977 to 1981) and a successful four-year stint as head coach at Division II Nebraska-Omaha (89-33, consecutive North Central Conference Coach of the Year awards in '04 and '05). As a piece of trivia, McKenna is the only person in MVC history to win a MVC regular-season title, MVC tournament title, NBA championship (1972 Lakers), and CBA title (La Crosse Catbirds in 1990 as a player/assistant coach).

Tim Jankovich, Illinois State: If ever there was an assistant coach with pedigree, it's Jankovich after five years as an assistant to Bill Self at Kansas and Illinois. Among his other stops at Vanderbilt, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Colorado, Jankovich has also learned at the sides of Eddie Sutton, Lon Kruger, Gene Iba, and Kevin Stallings. Jankovich has had two prior jobs as the head man, going 53-57 in four seasons at North Texas and 50-12 at Hutchinson Community College (Kan.). Do not be surprised to see Illinois State make a major move toward the top of the conference in a very short amount of time.

(Jankovich also has a great sense of humor, saying yesterday he wants to redshirt the entire season and that he's not going to be friends with Missouri State coach Barry Hinson any more. It was a lot funnier when he said it.)

Marty Simmons, Evansville: Simmons is an Evansville alum and one of the most prolific scorers in program history (24.3 ppg over his last two years after transferring from Indiana), as well as serving as an assistant when the Purple Aces made the NCAA tournament in 1992, 1993, and 1999 (with an NIT appearance in 1994). He also has experience turning around a dormant program, taking a Southern Illinois-Edwardsville program that hadn't won 10 games in a season since 1999 and putting up four consecutive winning seasons, including 23 in '04-'05 and 25 in '05-'06.

Keno Davis, Drake: Davis takes over for his father, Tom Davis, so you can expect much of the same high-flying style that made the Bulldogs lead the Valley in points per game (74.9) and finish last in points per game allowed (74.2) last season. With that said, we saw last year at Washington State (Tony Bennett taking over for dad Dick) that sometimes the son's tweaks on the father's style can produce amazing results. (The younger Davis was also a Bruce Pearl assistant at Southern Indiana, so that adds to his frenetic upbringing.)

3. There's nothing "mid" about the Valley's non-conference schedules (except for Drake and Evansville, who need to do better).

The top non-conference games for each Valley school (in addition to one as-yet un-announced Bracketbusters game):

Bradley: Iowa State (home; 11/14), Iowa (neutral; 11/23), Vanderbilt/Utah State (neutral; 11/24), Michigan State (home; 12/4), Wright State (road; 12/11), Butler (road; 12/19), Virginia Commonwealth (home; 12/22)

Creighton: DePaul (home; 11/9), Nebraska (home; 11/24), Drexel (road; 12/1), Xavier (road; 12/5), St. Joseph's (home; 12/9)

Drake: Saint Mary's (road; 11/10), Iowa State (home; 12/5), Iowa (road; 12/14)

Evansville: Butler (home; 11/17)

Illinois State: Indiana (neutral; 11/23), Xavier/Kent (neutral; 11/24), Cincinnati (home; 12/8)

Indiana State: Butler (road; 11/14), Purdue (road; 12/1)

Missouri State: St. Louis (home; 11/21), Winthrop (road; 11/25), Arkansas (road; 12/3), Utah (road; 12/15), Alabama (neutral; 12/22), Purdue/Iowa State (neutral; 12/23)

Northern Iowa: Massachusetts (home; 11/11), Iowa State (road; 11/27), Iowa (home; 12/5), Nevada (home; 12/22)

Southern Illinois: Anaheim Classic (field includes Southern California and Mississippi State among others; 11/22-11/25); Indiana (home; 12/1), Charlotte (road; 12/8), St. Mary's (home; 12/11); St. Louis (road; 12/15), Butler (home; 12/28; Elgin said expansion isn't "anywhere on our radar," but it sure seems like Butler is trying to schedule their way into the MVC.)

Wichita State: Baylor (neutral; 11/16), Notre Dame/Monmouth (neutral; 11/17 or 11/18), Georgia Tech/Charlotte/Illinois-Chicago/Winthrop (neutral; 11/19), Appalachian State (road; 11/29), LSU (home; 12/19), Alabama-Birmingham (home; 12/22)

2. The newcomers may not be getting illegal phone calls from Kelvin Sampson, but that doesn't mean they can't play. Some of the names you should learn:

Lamont Austin, 5-11 G, and Kyle Weems, 6-6 F, Missouri State: The high school teammates at Topeka Highland Park High in Kansas finished off their high school careers with a perfect 25-0 record and the Kansas Class 5A state championship. Hinson expects Austin to contribute immediately at the point.

Brent Barz, 6-10 F, Northern Iowa: The player of the year in Iowa as a senior, Barz averaged 19.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks last year. He could slide right in to Grant Stout's position next to Preseason All-MVC forward Eric Coleman. All you need to do is read a Panthers message board to see how exited their fans are about Barz.

Carlton Fay, 6-8 F, Southern Illinois: From the press release announcing his signing: "He's that blue-chip recruit that you need in each class to continue your success," said SIU head coach Chris Lowery. "He comes in ready to play, physically, mentally, and skill-wise ... He's ready to play as an incoming freshman."

Theron Wilson, 6-5 G/F, Bradley: Transfer from Seward County (Kan.) Community College. Led Seward County in four major statistical categories last season: scoring (19.4 ppg), rebounding (10.8 rpg), steals (74, 2.4 spg), and blocked shots (45, 1.5 bpg).

P'Allen Stinnett, 6-3 SG, Creighton: Two-time all-state selection in Nevada before playing one year at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, ranked fifth nationally among prep schools. Averaged 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 steals per game as a junior.

Nate Garner, 6-5 F, Evansville: Transfer from Tyler (Texas) Junior College. Averaged 14 ppg and 8 rpg while shooting 62 percent from the floor. Put up eight double-doubles last year, and scored 30 in a game twice.

Aaron Ellis, 6-7 F, Wichita State: With seven freshmen on the roster, it's hard to tell exactly who will emerge in the Shockers' rotation. But Ellis was the most sought after on the recruiting trail, and Marshall's teams at Winthrop loved to shoot the three — one of Ellis' strong suits.

1. A lot of proven talent may have gone, but a lot of proven talent remains.

Randal Falker is the preseason pick as conference player of the year at SIU, and will have more than enough help from fellow senior Matt Shaw and junior Bryan Mullins (which is why SIU was unanimously chosen to win the conference).

Bradley has the top two returning scorers in the Valley with guards Daniel Ruffin (preseason all-conference team) and Jeremy Crouch. Both averaged 13.8 ppg last year and Ruffin is the nation's active assist leader (475).

Missouri State's Deven Mitchell has gone from Sixth Man of the Year to a spot on the preseason all-conference team, and has fellow seniors Spencer Laurie and Drew Richards to lean on (along with junior Shane Laurie).

Northern Iowa has pre-season All MVC forward Eric Coleman on the inside and two of the best long-range shooters in the conference in Jared Josten and Adam Viet on the outside.

Wichita State has P.J. Cousinard (preseason All-MVC). Indiana State has Gabe Moore (led the team in minutes and scoring last year). Evansville has Jason Holsinger (fourth in the league with 5.06 apg last year). Drake has Al Stewart (second in assists at 5.44). Creighton has Dane Watts (fourth on the team last year in scoring, second in rebounding).

And Illinois State, the sleeper of all sleepers, has back four starters and their top four scorers in Levi Dyer, Boo Richardson, Osiris Eldridge, and Anthony Slack. Those last three were all members of the Valley's All-Newcomer team last year.

***

So now that I've done my best MVC infomercial (thanks for the free lunch, guys), let's get down to the only thing that really matters: NCAA tournament bids. The Valley has long since passed up one-and-done territory. There will be at least two bids, and Southern Illinois is going to be one of them.

You could usually depend on Creighton, but the losses of Funk and Tolliver figure to be too much to bear (which must be why Altman looked positively depressed when discussing his team). Marshall is going to have the Shockers in the tournament regularly, but not in year one. The combination of a new system and so many freshman just doesn't bode well in a deep conference. Drake, Evansville, and Indiana State have too far to go.

That leaves Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and Bradley battling for one or two spots max (four bids is a such a long-shot at this point, it's not really on the table).

I actually like Missouri State better this year than I did the past two years, when it seems they just waited for Ahearn to bail them out of a tight spot at the end of the game. I can see Austin winning the Newcomer of the Year award. But there's still a coaching issue. Though he's a great speaker and very amicable guy, Hinson has not shown himself to be a coach who can get his team over the hump. I'm going to have to see it before I pick them any higher than fourth.

Northern Iowa is a tough team, and they have a tremendous home-court advantage at the McLeod Center. But they lost their point guard, and that's a big loss. Plus, without Stout to pair up with down low, Coleman might find himself under constant double-teaming.

I've got a feeling about the Redbirds. They're going to upset some people along the way and be right smack on the bubble come Selection Sunday. If they can pull off the W against Indiana and get lucky with the Bracketbusters draw, they could be the third team in.

Bradley has a lot going for it with Ruffin and Crouch, plus one of the most underrated coaches in the country in Jim Les. They do have some weakness on the inside, but they have the shooters and slashers to make up for it. In the end, it'll come down to how they handle the Michigan State/Wright State/Butler/VCU stretch to finish out the non-conference schedule. If they can get three of four there and put up a wining record in the Valley, they're in the field.

Final projection:

Southern Illinois (NCAA)
Bradley (NCAA)
Illinois State (NCAA)
Northern Iowa (NIT)
Missouri State (NIT)
Wichita State (NIT)
Creighton
Drake
Evansville
Indiana State

Seth Doria is a writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:36 AM | Comments (1)