Has it been that long since San Antonio swept Cleveland to win yet another title? Are we already that much past the Draft? Have we put all the rookie camps and preseason games behind us?
That's right. The NBA is back and rollin' the dice on another season (er, bad use of words ... sorry refs). With the League back in session this week, there's no time for these players to look back. They have to be full-speed ahead. No worries, gents. I've made it easy on you.
All you need to do is take some time and let me decide who will make the playoffs for you. No season of wear and tear. No long 8-13 day road trips. It's not even necessary to unpack your gear. Of course, you could try to prove me wrong (easier done than said). All right, lay it on me crystal ball. Who's got the goods to keep playing in late April?
Atlantic Division
This was basically a division of youth last season, with plenty of also-rans to fill in the gaps. Even with established names such as Paul Pierce, Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Stephon Marbury, the division-winning Raptors were led by relative youngster Chris Bosh.
That rep got shaken up during the offseason with Boston's huge facelift. The Celtics' acquisitions of Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett (while shuffling off most of their young core of players to Seattle and Minnesota) vastly improved their superstar punch. If we've learned anything from the past, it's that more than one big name helps when fighting for a title. If we've learned anything else (i.e. the 2004 L.A. Lakers), it's to keep from anointing a team too quickly.
Division winner: Boston
Other playoff qualifier: Toronto
Southeast Division
This could be the wildest division of all in '07-'08. The defending champs in Miami have loads of experience (I mean, by the jumbo jet-full). But do will they have enough legs to make a push? Washington has a handful of scoring talent, an underrated head coach, and one of the most clutch players in the game. But can they be consistent enough?
Atlanta looked improved at times last season, and Joe Johnson might make his worth out of that phat contract. But can the Hawks take the next step? Speaking of which, Orlando shot out of the gate to the best record in the conference through almost a quarter of last season. But can they be more consistent and move to the top of the standings?
As far as Charlotte goes, can they stay healthy and get any forward progress?
Division winner: Orlando
Other playoff qualifier: Atlanta (that's right, I said it)
Central Division
Three of the last four years, the Eastern Conference representative in the Finals has come from this division. At first glance, the East might want to look that way again for their best chance to swipe the trophy back from the West. Detroit still has most of their veteran nucleus and added some grinders in Arron Afflalo and Sammy Mejia. Cleveland apparently has enough in LeBron James.
The focus should be on Chicago. The Bulls continued to get deeper by drafting Joakim Noah's intensity, JamesOn Curry's athleticism, and Aaron Gary's physicality. That, and another year under the Toddler Bulls' belt (a little older than babies), should be enough to overtake the rival Pistons.
The Indiana Pacers started to gel late last season, just missing the final playoff spot. With Jermaine O'Neal back in the middle, plus another year of experience for guys like Danny Granger and Ike Diogu, I feel they will finish that push and get in the postseason over Washington and New Jersey.
Division champs: Chicago*
Other playoff qualifiers: Detroit, Cleveland, Indiana
Northwest Division
It's not so much a tale of haves and have-nots as it is one of in-style and ahead of its time. Utah gelled somethin' fierce on its way to the Western Conference finals last season. The maturation of Deron Williams and consistent play of Carlos Boozer might turn them into this generation's Stockton and Malone.
Denver might be one of the top three or four teams in the league when it comes to talent. But even with Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, and J.R. Smith, there's no substitute for underachieving. The players have the talent to pass by Utah again, but can they get over that last factor.
Minnesota, Portland, and Seattle are all young. But they will all be young and on the rise. I'm telling you right now, I would not want to be in this division come 2009. It sounds silly now, but I think they'll all be scary.
Division champs: Denver
Other playoff qualifiers: Utah
Pacific Division
This is becoming the run-and-gun division once again, with Phoenix and Phoenix Lite (Golden State) leading the way. They may not be the same, but their similar mentalities will drive opponents nuts. Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion will get the most wins, but Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, and Al Harrington will provide plenty of fuel to the fire.
The L.A. teams appear to be stuck in the mud. Neither did much to improve or even shake up the locker rooms during summer vacation. The Clippers are starting to look fairly old and have the added weight of proving that their playoff run two seasons ago was no fluke. The Lakers are in deep with Kobe Bryant controversy and might be an entirely different team by opening night.
Sacramento has talent, but they have to usher in a new coach in Reggie Theus. He might have done wonders at New Mexico State, but this is a whole new ballgame.
Division champs: Phoenix
Other playoff qualifiers: Golden State
Southwest Division
In my mind, this is the deepest division in the Association. The defending champion Spurs have their entire crew back, which means trouble for everyone else that wears an NBA uniform. Even so, it was Dallas (not San Antonio) who had the league's best record last season. Then add in Houston, who jettisoned one playoff proven coach for another. A breath of that Texas air might be just what Rick Adelman needed.
New Orleans has a lot a talent waiting to explode on the scene. Problem is, they can't even light the fuse. Injuries have killed any and all opportunities for the Hornets to gain traction the last couple of years. If they stay healthy, watch out. Unfortunately, I don't see it that way.
Memphis is also fairly talented. They completely bottomed out last season after getting a decent seed in the playoffs two years back. People have been drooling over the play of rookie guard Mike Conley, Jr. If he can deliver the goods night in and night out, I think their start will re-rise quickly.
Division champ: Dallas
Other playoff qualifiers: San Antonio, Houston, Memphis (can you say shooting star?)
Well, since I laid out the divisions (however briefly), here's my pecking order for the playoffs ... five-plus months in advance.
Eastern Conference
1) Chicago
2) Boston
3) Orlando
4) Detroit
5) Toronto
6) Cleveland
7) Indiana
8) Atlanta
Western Conference
1) Phoenix
2) Dallas
3) San Antonio
4) Denver
5) Utah
6) Houston
7) Golden State
8) Memphis
Granted, there are a couple of surprises in the list. But for someone who actually got 13 out of the last season's 16 teams right (although, not exactly where), I'll take what I can get.
*Note: As I'm writing this, the Bulls are in talks to get Bryant from the Lakers. Although they might give up too much to threaten for a division crown if the trade happens, they'll have more than enough to get to the playoffs.
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