Except for a year in college, I've resisted fantasy football. It just seemed to strange and craven to be rooting for certain players and against others on the same team. It'd take too much homework to gain an advantage. I already watch too much college football to get too deep in the NFL. The list goes on.
Well, this year I decided to give it another shot, and it seems I forgot one pro that outweighs all the cons: it's so much fun. The homework involved is actually quite exciting when you put on your shrewd general manager's cap. I have three teams and it's not enough.
As you can see from my extensive fantasy resume, I am well-qualified to offer my tips on selecting and running a successful team.
* Stock up on running backs. Running backs are the most precious commodity in fantasy football because about a third of the teams split carries pretty evenly between two or more backs. That leaves 20 teams that have a primary back that takes on 90% of their team's carries. Primary backs obviously have a huge advantage over backs that split time, and if there's only 20 or so, that's only two apiece in a 10-team league. Not a lot when you consider you probably have to play two RBs each week. An injury will decimate you, and you won't have the luxury to substitute out a guy going up against a tough run defense.
So try to get at least three, or even four, of those primary backs, so you have some flexibility. Make the guys who just select the best available player with each pick, regardless of position, pay.
* Wide Receivers should be your second priority. The good news about wide receivers is most teams have two or three capable of putting up 100 yards any given day, so there's not the scarcity you'll find with running backs.
* Quarterbacks should be your third priority, unless you have a chance to get an elite one like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.
* You can make a case for drafting only one quarterback, tight end, and defense. This is especially true if you have an QB or defense (like Manning, Jeremy Shockey, or Chicago respectively) elite enough that you don't have to worry about matchups. If you can't get an elite player, then either go ahead and pickup two, or pickup one, unload the non-elite unit and pickup a different one off waivers when the the bye week hits, they start to struggle, or have tough matchup. Like with wide receivers, there's a surplus of ones that have big number potential, not a deficit.
* The above is even more true for kickers. Since most kicker fantasy points come from field goals, and it's impossible to predict how many field goal opportunities a kicker will get in a game, the question of how good a kicker is in nearly moot. Kickers are more or less equal anyway. Matt Bryant had missed all his attempts more than 40 yards before nailing a 62-yarder against the Eagles midway through last season. Make kicker your last pick, and then dump him and pickup another one on your bye week.
My dream team would have an one elite QB, one elite tight end, one elite defense, one kicker, no backups for any, and the rest of the roster stuffed with wide receivers and running backs, allowing me maximum flexibility each week when selecting wide receivers and quarterbacks. When one of my elite players has a bye week or gets hurt, I'll waive the worst RB/WR I have and get a temporary replacement.
* Pay attention and be cut-throat. When you learn of a primary running back getting injured seriously enough to miss a big chunk of the season, find out who will replace him and snap him up as fast as you can (this may or may not work out depending on your league's waiver rules, even if you grab him first.) That way, not only do you get a free primary running back, you deprive the team that that lost the injured guy the ability to get him.
* Pay attention to your league's waiver wire. Guys will impatiently drop good players after a single poor week. I just picked up Larry Fitzgerald off waivers in my ESPN league. Who is so stacked at wide receiver that they have no use for a guy like Larry Fitzgerald?
* Be wary of flashes-in-the-pan, but stay informed. Perfect example: last week, Bucs RB Cadillac Williams left the game after re-aggravating a rib injury (to be more precise, his flack jacket was making it hard for him to hang on to the ball). Earnest Graham replaced him, and ran for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Fantasy owners are now snapping up Graham left and right, and they are going to be sorely disappointed. Bucs coach Jon Gruden has emphatically stated several times that Williams is still his primary back, and he will just have to "look for ways" to get Graham the ball more. It really doesn't sound like they are about to split carries by any means. Williams ribs will continue to heal, he'll get his flack jacket problem worked out, and he won't lose much if anything to Graham based on one good half of work. This information is widely available.
In Week 2, it was Packers RB DeShawn Wynn getting 50 yards and 2 touchdowns in a move away from the ineffective Brandon Jackson. But 38 of those yards were on one carry, and the following week he had just three carries (Jackson had 6; Brett Favre threw 45 times).
The lesson is, when someone emerges after a great week, make sure it was consistently great, and that he is going to get the opportunities to continue producing greatness.
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