When the Mighty Will Fall

We've almost made it through the month of September, and at the quarter pole of the college football season, 21 teams have yet to suffer a loss. Unfortunately, everyone can't be undefeated at this point. It's ... well ... impossible. (This was a possibility in the era of ties. Not very likely, but possible.)

And there's no way for all of the unscathed to finish the season the same way. At most, nine teams can end the regular season with a goose egg in the loss column, with a maximum of eight perfect squads through Championship Saturday on December 1st. Even though this scenario could destroy BCS computers everywhere from sheer confusion, I regrettably can't predict that happening. So instead of asking who will survive intact, I wonder "who won't?"

Week Five (September 28th-29th)

The last week of this month has several has a few matchups of unbeaten teams. It starts Friday as Big East acquaintances West Virginia and South Florida get together in Tampa. The Mountaineers look to avenge an upset five-point loss from last season. South Florida is growing into the darlings that some predicted a couple of years ago, with a road win at Auburn to boot. However, I think that Pat White, Steve Slaton, and freshman hit Noel Devine will have enough firepower to vault WVU over the vaunted Bulls defense.

On Saturday, a pair of unbeaten tilts will start at 3:30 Eastern Time, as ABC will be at both Michigan State/Wisconsin and Cal/Oregon in their regional coverage package. The first game should be more defense-oriented. Mark Dantonio heads into his second straight marquee game with his new team, while Wisconsin comes in off of three somewhat underachieving performances against UNLV, The Citadel, and Iowa. The Badgers are a little further along than Sparty, though, and they have P.J. Hill to boot. Bucky by 10.

For the offense lovers, head out west, where athletes, athletes, and athletes will be on the field in Eugene. The backfield matchups of Nate Longshore and Justin Forcett (Cal) versus Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart (UO) are extremely tasty. Add in DeSean Jackson, possibly the nation's most exciting player, and 45-41 isn't a possibility, it's an expectation. I give the edge to Cal, knocking the Ducks from their dreams of perfection.

Week Six (October 6th)

Look for a lot of teams to take a hit on the first Saturday of October. Again, this weekend will have three games matching unbeaten teams. The biggest will be in Baton Rouge, which could showcase a preview of the SEC Championship as Florida battles LSU. Florida has been impressive with Tim Tebow as the starter, even with an escape from Ole Miss. But the Bengal Tigers have a nasty defense and will provide to be too much with the home crowd behind them. The defending champs will take their first hit of the season.

Just behind the SEC clash is another important tilt, with Oklahoma and Texas renewing the Red River Shootout in Dallas. The Longhorns seem to be turning the tide in the series, but they've looked suspect early this year. On the other hand, the Sooners have straight been rollin', folks. OU has put up more than 50 points in each of their first four games. Impressive opponents? No. Impressive statistics? Yes. Oklahoma is setting themselves up for a big run at the National Championship Game, and it will continue beyond the Texas State Fair.

In the other possible battle of unbeatens, Ohio State will head to Purdue, where the Boilermakers have quietly taken care of business (which should continue against Notre Dame this weekend) to stay unblemished. But the Boilers haven't faced the kind of opposition the Buckeyes will bring to the table. OSU already has a road win on its belt to an improving Washington team. Expect another victory in West Lafayette.

After a week off, Kansas will fall from the ranks of the perfect records when they go down at interstate rival Kansas State (by far, the best team the Jayhawks will have seen to that point of the year). Another nasty defense will take its toll, as Virginia Tech will slow down Clemson and send the Tigers to their first defeat.

Week Seven (October 13th)

A couple of the mid-level programs will be heading into games with their "big brothers" toward the middle of October. Kentucky has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the early season. In my '07 toughest schedules edition, I had the Wildcats going an even 6-6. But this was before Andre Woodson lifted UK to upsets (however mild) of Louisville and at Arkansas. All that momentum will hit a bump in the road after getting a visit from LSU.

It's another year of high hopes in Columbia, and so far, Missouri has lived up to them (at least, offensively). I think they'll survive their showdown with Nebraska with home field being the decider. However, a 5-0 start won't hit 6-0. You can thank a trip to Norman for that, with Oklahoma bursting the bubble of another unbeaten team two weeks running.

Week Eight (October 20th)

This could have been another showdown of undefeateds had UCLA not gotten waxed in Salt Lake City. Nonetheless, the Bruins should have righted the ship by then, which means the defense should be up for the task of trying to contain Cal. If the Bears get by the Bruins, they should be able to look forward to a huge tilt against USC (November 10th). However, if there is a team other than the Trojans that can slow down Cal, it's UCLA.

Week Nine (October 25th-27th)

A quartet of upsets loom large as the number of zero-loss teams falls below double digits.

Boston College should continue to breeze through their non-conference schedule (UMass, Bowling Green, at Notre Dame) before heading into a Thursday night battle at Virginia Tech. This should be an interesting matchup of BC's veteran offense against V-Tech's ferocious defense. Many championship dreams have died a slow, painful death in Blacksburg. This time, it looks like the Eagles will be grounded just enough for that to happen.

Penn State has lost their chance at a "bagel" season in the right-hand column, so they'll have to focus on winning out to have their chance at the Big Ten title. They will probably lose out on that when Wisconsin comes to town a couple weeks earlier. But the Nittany Lions will cherish another shot to knock off a big boy as Ohio State rolls into the picture.

The Big East gets back into the swing of things when Rutgers survives South Florida to set up a contest with still unbeaten West Virginia. The Knights has their chances at the Mountaineers last season, when WVU escaped 41-39 in triple overtime. This time, the game's in Piscataway. You don't think Ray Rice and Mike Teel will be ready? I would bet on it.

Out West, Cal will be looking to gain some momentum after their loss to UCLA. They get a chance to kill someone else's dreams with a trip to Tempe. Wait a minute, you say. Arizona State's undefeated into the last week of October? That's right. After their come-from-behind win against Oregon State, the Sun Devils have three winnable games (at Stanford, at Washington State, Washington) before the Bears come to town. Unfortunately, Dennis Erickson can't ascend the Pac-10 mountain this quickly.

Weeks 10-13 (November)

The month of November will start with six teams left in the ranks of the completely victorious. But as the weather gets even colder, the traps will continue to be set for those still dreaming of New Years' warmth in New Orleans. The first team to fall prey will be Wisconsin. Coming off a loss in Happy Valley, Ohio State will be a fairly bunch of Buckeyes. Expect them to beat the Badgers at home in another drag-out defensive slobber knocker on the 3rd.

Everyone out West is looking forward to the contest between Hawaii and Boise State on the 23rd, possibly seeing that as the Rainbow Warriors last hurdle to an undefeated season. I won't even look that far out, because of a resilient program by the name of Fresno State. I think they'll be a bigger player in the WAC race than some believe. I also think that seeing Oregon's high-powered offense will help the Bulldogs in preparing for, and beating, Hawaii on the 10th.

The last undefeated to go down will be Rutgers. Greg Schiano is building the Scarlets Knights at a sprint, but the next step might be defeating a name opponent on the road. And even with the early-season woes, that team will be represented by Louisville (the 29th). If they can't play for the BCS, Brian Brohm and the Cardinals would like nothing less than to shatter the dreams of the team that burst their bubble in '06. Will the pressure lift Rutgers to new heights or cave in on them? For right now, I'm picking the latter.

And what do you know? If that don't leave us with a déjà vu situation. Remember January of 2004? That's when LSU defeated Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl to win the BCS championship. Meanwhile, USC's victory in the Rose Bowl vaulted them to number one status with the Associated Press. All three players will be in the picture again, this time with undefeated records.

Will the Sooners be the ones left out in the cold this time? Can the Tigers (SEC Championship), Sooners (Big 12 Championship), and Trojans (UCLA) endure stiff tests on December 1st? That debate, my friends, is for another time.