Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
The San Francisco 49ers weren't exactly a sleeper team headed into last season, but they did win over a number of fans down the stretch of the season.
After 1 touchdown pass and 11 interceptions in his rookie season, there were all sorts of trepidations surrounding quarterback Alex Smith's future as a franchise starter. But Smith bounced back in a big way, mostly because of the addition of Norv Turner at offensive coordinator. Turner, an offensive guru and quarterback wizard, got Smith's touchdown-interception ratio back to even (16/16).
Smith was greatly aided by the breakout season from Frank Gore, who set a franchise-record with 1,695 rushing yards.
The 49ers' offense was fairly one-dimensional as the wide receivers were far too inconsistent. The best of the bunch might have been Antonio Bryant, who was the big-play threat, but was very in-and-out. Arnaz Battle, who is a good blocker and has good hands, was far more consistent, but he doesn't have big-play potential. Tight end Vernon Davis was supposed to bring that to the table, but was limited to 10 games and 20 catches.
The 49ers deserve credit for building their team properly. They were mocked for signing Jonas Jennings and Larry Allen, but unlike teams like the Houston Texans, they are rebuilding their team from the inside out. They are clearly headed in the right direction.
On defense, the 49ers weren't bad. But they weren't exactly good, either. Cornerback Walt Harris had a career-year out of the blue. The 33-year-old deservedly earned a Pro Bowl berth. Other quality prospects on defense included linebacker Brandon Moore, who led the team in tackles. Rookie Manny Lawson was a good pass rusher, but lacked in run defense.
The 49ers' defensive line was still a weakness with no real nose tackle and stalwart end Bryant Young older growing in age.
But as a whole, while the parts didn't look great and the total ranking didn't impress, the 49ers still played better than their rosters looked on paper.
Are They A Sleeper?
I'm here to break everyone's hearts and tell you that the 49ers won't be making the playoffs. If you have them tabbed as the apple of your eye, as that one NFL team that comes out of nowhere, it won't be the 49ers.
For starters, they lost offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who was instrumental in the growth of the offense last year. That's not to say that Smith and Gore won't continue to improve, but they would have been better off had Turner stayed.
The 49ers added some weapons for Smith to work with, but they aren't exactly top-of-the-line guys.
Ashley Lelie is a one-dimensional threat as a go-route threat, but doesn't catch any passes where he might take a hit. Darrell Jackson was acquired in a trade from Seattle, but he had trouble staying healthy the last two seasons and dropped more easy catches than you might think. Jackson gives the offense a legitimate 1,000-yard threat and a good target for Smith, but he's never reached 1,200 yards receiving and doesn't exactly give any cornerbacks nightmares.
The real difference-maker in the passing game has to be Vernon Davis, who is a freak athlete and is coming off a good offseason. While his measurables are outstanding, he needs to develop into what everyone thinks he can be.
The 49ers defense will be better because of the additions Nate Clements and Patrick Willis, but temper expectations for safety Michael Lewis. The former Eagle was benched last year and although he adds a physical presence, he'll get burned in coverage quite a bit.
There are some concerns in the secondary outside of Lewis, though. Clements will start opposite of Harris, who is 33-years-old. It's doubtful he'll duplicate his performance from last season. Shawntae Spencer is a good nickelback, but safety Mark Roman is average at best.
The biggest concern for this defense is the three men up front.
Bryant Young, the only player remaining from the 49ers' last Super Bowl team, is 35-years-old and missed a chunk of the preseason with a back injury. Aubrayo Franklin, who was brought in to anchor the nose, has a partially torn knee ligament.
The 3-4 defense doesn't work very well without the guys up front and the 49ers are fairly weak here.
The 49ers roster looks like an 8-8 squad, but they may not even get to there.
The Schedule
For any sleeper team that is breaking out, the key is to get off to a great start. With a really rough opponent list prior to their bye week, the 49ers won't get that opportunity.
They will beat Arizona on opening night at home — that's a given.
They head to St. Louis the following week, which will be a very difficult game against an improved Rams' squad.
They travel to Pittsburgh in Week 3, which will be another loss, then they are at home to Baltimore and Seattle the next two weeks prior to their bye week.
Baltimore won 13 games last year and added Willis McGahee, while the Seattle Seahawks will want to exact revenge on the 49ers, who swept them last year. We'll give them a split here.
Next, the 49ers head to New York to face the Giants after their bye week and then are back home to New Orleans. A split here would be a positive result.
This could easily be a 2-5 start, which will derail those playoff expectations.
The good news is that the 49ers' schedule is much easier on the back end, particularly with three of their final four games coming at home.
Look for the 49ers to finish strong and become a playoff contender in 2008.
Biggest Weakness: Defensive Line — There isn't much depth at end, and Young and Franklin are already hurt. This unit could derail defensive expectations.
Offensive X-Factor: Vernon Davis — He has to become Smith's top target for this offense to become anything better than mediocre.
Defensive X-Factor: Walt Harris — If he can be a shutdown guy along with Clements, that will give the 49ers much more flexibility in their front seven.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
While I might not think that Darrell Jackson can take this offense to new heights, he is still a No. 1 receiver in this offense. For a small wide receiver, he is more of a touchdown threat than people give him credit for. He has 29 touchdowns in his last 35 games. He should be a lock for at least 70 receptions.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.
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