Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
So close, yet so far.
The San Diego Chargers made giant leaps in 2006, but couldn't put all together in the playoffs.
The season started with a bold decision to let the injured Drew Brees walk and hand the team to untested quarterback Philip Rivers. Quiet clearly, the plan was to keep the pressure off of Rivers for the first season by leaning more on the shoulders of LaDainian Tomlinson. The Chargers' offense was stellar with the ground attack. Obviously having Tomlinson helped, but the offensive line was as strong as it had been in recent memory.
But instead of lauding what went well, let's focus on what needs to be fixed.
For starters, Rivers didn't have a good full season. Whether it was the rigors of playing a full 16-game schedule for the first time or simply slumping a little bit, he didn't exude the same confidence in the latter stages of the season that he showed in the first two months.
In the passing game, the Chargers were pretty much the same team they had always been for the past five years. Tight end Antonio Gates was the main threat, while the wide receivers were just a run-of-the-mill group.
Out of 287 completions, only 126 were made by wide receivers. When it came down to the playoffs, having so few threats on the edges came back to hurt the team.
On defense, the Chargers were phenomenal. The loss of Steve Foley at the beginning of the season was quickly forgotten as Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman wreaked havoc off of the edges.
Up front, the Chargers have probably the best defensive line anchoring a 3-4. Nose tackle Jamal Williams sucks up double-teams every play, but Luis Castillo is an awesome end player who doesn't get so much credit.
The secondary, which was previously a weakness, stepped up and played a little bit better. I'm still cautious to give them a ton of credit simply because the front seven made their work so much easier.
The Playoff Loss
So another one of Marty Schottenheimer's teams fails to execute in the playoffs. What else is new?
I won't — and don't — blame Schottenheimer for the loss.
Last season, there were concerns early on as to how conservative the Chargers would be with a raw starting quarterback, but the playbook was open from day one and there were no training wheels. I'll give credit to Schottenheimer, a coach with a pretty bad track record of being conservative, for easing up.
Interesting enough, though, maybe he eased up too much. In the playoff game against New England, the Chargers only gave 8 carries to Tomlinson in the second half while protecting the lead. The old Marty Ball approach would have been to feed him 20-25 in the second half.
But the coaching staff chose to be aggressive — possibly because they had been ripped in the past for being too conservative.
I guess their damned if they do and damned if they don't.
Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers: Philip Rivers
Rivers came out of the gates from a canon in 2006 and the transition from Brees to Rivers appeared seamless.
But having a first-time starter running the show ended up hurting the Chargers — in the short term, anyway.
Rivers didn't throw an interception in September and had a quarterback rating of 107.4 at the end of the month. But unfortunately, it wouldn't only regress from there.
September:
33-46, 71.7%, 2 TD, 0 INT, 107.4 QB rating
October:
106-164, 64.6%, 8 TD, 3 INT, 94.9 QB rating
November:
76-121, 62.8%, 5 TD, 3 INT, 89.0 QB rating
December:
69-129, 53.5%, 7 TD, 3 INT, 85.7 QB rating
It's normal for first-time starters (or rookies, for that matter) to fade down the stretch of their first season. With Rivers, he visibly wasn't as confident as he was at the start of the year and that further affected a passing game that wasn't so strong to begin with.
Goodbye Coaching Staff, Goodbye Championship?
The Chargers were so close last season and they probably won't come that close again this year.
Sure, the talent returns including 10 Pro Bowlers. Furthermore, the team is super young so a lot the players will probably get better — including Tomlinson.
But after losing an entire staff, you can't expect for continuity.
No, that doesn't mean that the Chargers will flop and finish with eight wins. What it means is that the last coaching staff new the exact buttons to push to get the most out of everyone.
Norv Turner has already shown in the past that he is not capable of doing that as a head coach.
The last staff had even morphed to the players, throwing their conservative play-calling out the window to better mold to the team.
This is really a can't-win situation for Turner. In his previous stops in Oakland and Washington, he had virtually no expectations to produce right away. In San Diego, if he falls short of the Super Bowl, the season will be a disappointment.
Losing Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips might hurt even more than losing Schottenheimer.
The offense and defense were both peaking under their respective coordinators. Now they have brought in coaches to run a similar system, but Diet Coke is not Coke.
Turner is an excellent offensive coordinator, but his teams have lacked discipline in the past. Turnovers, penalties, and bonehead mistakes in execution have plagued his teams while he headed them and he ended up losing clout in the clubhouse. That likely won't happen this year, but it will happen.
This Year
Expect the Chargers to be an excellent regular season team — they look like they are built perfectly for it. But I don't think there are many people that will believe they can beat New England — at home or on the road — in the playoffs at this point.
The offense returns nine starters, but added a first-round pick in wide receiver Craig Davis. It's clear that the wide receiving corps in the weakness on offense, but the Chargers are banking on Davis and Vincent Jackson to bust out.
Expect Rivers to piece together a full, quality season while relying less on Tomlinson. Don't get me wrong, Tomlinson is the cornerstone, but look for them to trust Rivers a lot more.
Keep an eye on Darren Sproles. Not that this team needs a third-down back or a runner to catch out of the backfield, Sproles is strong in that role. But he can give this team a big boost on special teams returns, which they were optimistic about last year until he got hurt.
The defense returns eight starters, but it looks like even the front office is concerned about the secondary. They used their second-round pick on safety Eric Weddle and also dipped into the supplemental draft to add another cornerback in Paul Oliver.
The only real changes in the starting lineup will be at middle linebacker, where the Chargers installed Stephen Cooper and Matt Wilhelm as full-time guys. Veteran Donnie Edwards, who had been whining for a while, left to Kansas City.
To be honest, no team in the NFL has more talent than the Chargers, but I have very little faith in Norv Turner. Watching the very first preseason game, I remember why his teams were so bad. In an opening series versus Seattle, the Chargers' drive started positively, but was riddled with penalties and execution blunders that ended the drive. Yes, I know it was the first preseason game, but those are typical characteristics of a Norv Turner team and as the evidence shows, he is simply not a good coach.
Biggest Weakness: Mettle — The Chargers will beat any top-tier team they face in the regular season (including New England), but they have to prove that they can win in the playoffs. Nothing else matters.
Offensive X-Factor: Craig Davis/Vincent Jackson — We know Tomlinson is great, we know Gates is great, we know Rivers is only on his way up; if the Chargers could add another consistent threat on the outside, they would be extremely tough to stop.
Defensive X-Factor: Marlon McCree — The Carolina Panthers regret losing this guy; he may not be great, but he is the quarterback of the secondary. He communicates well and lines everybody up properly.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
I get the feeling that Philip Rivers can easily become a No. 1 fantasy quarterback. He threw 22 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions last year, which indicates that he was already a good No. 2 option.
He is playing with more confidence than last season, but this time it will last all year long. With the growth of Jackson, the addition of Craig Davis, and Eric Parker out to prove that he is an asset, look for Rivers to get 25+ touchdown passes.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "Hardcore Fantasy" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch it weekly on Saturdays at 12:00 PM ET.
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