After about half-time of Monday night's Bengals/Falcons game, the relevant portion of the 2007 NFL preseason was over. The next week will be about figuring out the bottom dozen on the 53-man rosters. The week after that will be full prep for Week 1. We know what we know, and we'll have to make our decisions on that.
But before we get to our 2007 predictions, five observations from the all-important Week 3 of the preseason:
1. If you didn't catch the Patriots/Panthers game on CBS Friday night, you missed a great bit of coaching. The Patriots offensive line had been suspect against Tennessee in Week 2, and they didn't start off particularly hot against Carolina (runs for 2, 0, 4, punt). The next New England drive, the Pats take the ball at their own 5. A few plays later (all running), it's 4th-and-1 at their own 24. Bill Belichick leaves the team out there and runs Laurence Maroney up the gut for 4. First down. New England held the ball for the next seven minutes before settling for a Stephen Gostkowski field goal. Drive totals: 18 plays, 90 yards, 9:42 time of possession.
Would Belichick go for it on fourth deep in his own territory in the regular season? Probably not. But this was perfect for the time and situation, and the Pats offensive line was a completely different beast after that test.
2. Herm Edwards had to pick Damon Huard as the Chiefs' starter. There are a lot of veterans on that team, and Huard gives them the best chance to win out of the gate, especially with three of their first four on the road (at Houston, at Chicago, Minnesota, at San Diego). With Huard behind center, they can hope for 2-2. (There's no way they win at the Bears or Chargers, no matter who is at QB.) With Brodie Croyle, they might be looking at 1-3 or even 0-4. Huard is the right call — for now. Croyle still has the much higher ceiling.
3. Brady Quinn is the best QB on the Browns roster. I understand the thought process of not wanting to throw him to the wolves too early, but their schedule doesn't provide an easy insertion point. If you wait until after their bye, Week 8 at St. Louis, he's looking at three of his first four on the road, with back-to-back trips to Pittsburgh and Baltimore in Weeks 10 and 11. Cleveland starts with three of four at home, with all three home division games and a trip to Oakland in Week 3. Might as well go for broke from the start.
4. The St. Louis secondary is below average. Their best corner, Tye Hill, was abused by Oakland on Friday. The Rams defensive line better provide a lot of pressure, because the backfield won't hold up against the passing attacks of the NFC West.
5. It looks like the Texans felt like making a statement against their ballyhooed neighbors to the North. Not only were Julius Jones and Marion Barber III held to 48 yards on a combined 16 carries (a 3.0 average), but the supposedly over-the-hill Ahman Green averaged nearly 10 yards per touch, including a 46-yard rush to set up Houston's second touchdown.
Will Houston end up being a better team than Dallas? No. But when you're trying to build some confidence, punching the neighborhood bully in the teeth can go a long way, even in the preseason.
Okay. On to the fun stuff. The 2007 NFL season will unfold as follows.
Maybe.
AFC
East:
New England (12-4), New York Jets (9-7), Buffalo (5-11), Miami (4-12)
North:
Cincinnati (11-5), Pittsburgh (10-6), Cleveland (8-8), Baltimore (4-12)*
South:
Indianapolis (13-3), Houston (9-7), Jacksonville (7-9), Tennessee (6-10)
West:
San Diego (12-4), Denver (11-5), Oakland (6-10), Kansas City (4-12)
Homefield: Indianapolis
Wildcards: Denver, Pittsburgh
AFC Champ: New England
Last Team to Lose: New England
Last Team to Win: Miami
Biggest Bust: Baltimore
Breakout: Houston
Brady Quinn's First Start: Week 9
Backup QB Who Starts the Most Games: Kyle Boller
*I'm going so far against the grain on the Ravens, I figure it deserves it's own column. I published it yesterday at The Left Calf.
NFC
East:
Dallas (13-3), Washington (10-6), New York Giants (10-6), Philadelphia (8-8)
North:
Chicago (10-6), Minnesota (7-9), Green Bay (5-11), Detroit (3-13)
South:
New Orleans (11-5), Tampa Bay (6-10), Carolina (5-11), Atlanta (4-12)
West:
Seattle (11-5), San Francisco (8-8), Arizona (7-9), St. Louis (6-10)
Home Field: Dallas
Wildcards: Washington, Giants
NFC Champ: Seattle
Last NFC Team to Lose: Washington
Last NFC Team to Win: Green Bay
Biggest Bust: (tie) Carolina and St. Louis
Breakout: Washington
Kevin Kolb's First Start: Week 17
Backup QB Who Starts the Most Games: J.T. O'Sullivan
NFL
MVP: Tony Romo, Dallas
Coach of the Year: Joe Gibbs, Washington
Defensive Player of the Year: Will Smith, New Orleans
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Eric Weddle, San Diego
Sacks Leader: Will Smith
Rushing Leader: Travis Henry
Receptions Leader: Andre Johnson
Most Touchdowns Scored: Steven Jackson
Teams Looking For a New Head Coach Going Into 2008: Baltimore, Carolina (That's it. All the other teams I think will stink have somewhat new head coaches who will go on the hot seat for 08, but won't get fired for a bad '07.)
First pick in the 2008 NFL Draft: Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) to Detroit
The Rest of the Top Five: Darren McFadden (RB, Arkansas) to Atlanta, Jake Long (OT, Michigan) to Kansas City, Calais Campbell (DE, Miami) to Miami, Early Doucet (WR, LSU) to Baltimore
Super Bowl Champ: New England
It seems like a chalk pick, but it's actually not. Since the Pats started their free agency spending spree, everybody's been saying they're the favorites, then picking somebody else "to be different." So I'm actually going to be different than the people who want to be different by picking the team everybody who wants to be different won't pick.
And if that doesn't make sense, well ... I'm from Providence. What do you expect?
Seth Doria is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis. For the only daily column that mixes sports, politics, and entertainment news in one, visit The Left Calf.
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