Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
If the New Orleans Saints were the biggest shocker in the NFC, the New York Jets were their AFC equivalent.
With Chad Pennington starting, the Jets' quarterback situation was perceived to be frail at best and with no real discernible weapons on offense, the Jets were supposed to be a docile opponent.
But Eric Mangini, similar to Bill Belichick did things in New England, and took a roster that looked weak on paper, but made them overachieve on the field.
Running a new complex offense under coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the Jets were effective. Pennington was inconsistent, but was more good than bad, which is all the Jets needed. Considering he had no help from his running backs and was doubted by every pundit, he should be applauded for the season he had.
The Jets weren't completely bankrupt of weapons, but they were definitely limited with what they could do having Leon Washington, Laveranues Coles, and Jerricho Cotchery as their go-to guys.
They used a lot of smoke and mirrors to move the ball up and down the fiel,d but didn't have enough speed (or arm strength at QB) to consistently test teams down the field.
On defense, the Jets had lemons, but made lemonade.
With Bryan Thomas moving from defensive end and Jonathan Vilma moving into the middle, there were concerns about how the linebacking corps would perform. But Thomas had a career-high 8.5 sacks and Victor Hobson, his opposite on the outside, also output a career-year.
There were trepidations about how Vilma would perform in the new system and it didn't work out very well. To be honest, though, most of it had to do with the fact that the Jets were not using a traditional nose tackle to anchor their 3-4. That left Vilma to fight through more traffic and blockers, which he struggled with. The transition inside for Eric Barton didn't go so well, either.
The defensive line was so-so for the Jets. Kimo Von Oelhoeffen wasn't an impact player at end, Shaun Ellis was — at times — and Dewayne Robertson just didn't quite fit playing on the nose.
In the secondary, the Jets used several different faces at cornerback, but none of which could provide a steady level of play outside of Andre Dyson. The security came from the safeties, where Kerry Rhodes should have been a Pro Bowler while Erik Coleman rebounded after a tough season.
One-Hit Wonder?
With Belichick, everyone pegged them as a one-hit wonder after they blew up out of nowhere. It took about two more years of doubting before people realized that Belichick was serious and that he will continue to compete with waiver-wire pickups.
Eric Mangini and the Jets are now facing the very same doubters.
The Jets are a weird team — it's tough to really gage how good they will be. Count me in as a doubter.
Last season, their 10 wins came against: TEN, BUF, MIA x 2, DET, NE, HOU, GB, MIN and OAK — not exactly murderers' row.
Their success or failure is extremely dependent on Pennington, or more specifically, on how many turnovers he does or doesn't make. In 10 wins last year, Pennington threw 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, but had 4 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in six losses.
He should be better in his second season in the system, especially now with some more confidence, but the ceiling for Pennington is very low. He's not a franchise quarterback and his best case scenario is essentially avoiding mistakes and moving the chains.
Thomas Jones will help alleviate a lot of Pennington's stress. Jones is an underrated receiver and should be good for dump-offs.
The problem with this offense is that everything is done within the 10-20 yard range. There isn't a real threat of downfield plays still, which means defenses can play almost all of their defenders much closer to the line. Even with tricks and gadgets, the ceiling for the offense is very low.
Laveranues Coles is a bit better than a possession receiver at this point in his career and is no longer explosive. Cotchery and Justin McCareins don't scare anyone down the field, and there is no threat at tight end.
The Jets' offensive line could be an issue in the regular season. No, they won't be the Kansas City Chiefs or the Houston Texans of the past two years, but steady guard Pete Kendall has been bickering back and forth with team heads and was a big distraction. Kendall is a leader and helped the development of both rookies on either side of him, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. They may not be as good without him. Ferguson also faded down the stretch, which isn't particularly encouraging.
On defense, the Jets look like they should be better with the additions of Darrell Revis and David Harris, but the key will be the defensive line.
Even though Kenyon Coleman is now part of the rotation, the Jets' defensive line isn't very strong. Ellis and Robertson are good in spurts, but are not consistent.
The linebackers will be better than last year, mostly because Harris has re-ignited Eric Barton and Vilma should be more accustomed to the 3-4. The inside spots are the only real concern and Harris is waiting in the wings should either slip up.
In the secondary, Dyson returns as a starter and the Jets are hoping that Revis can solidify the position opposite of him. More importantly, though, Revis is a playmaker and that's what the Jets need more of — big plays. He got into camp very late, which is typically not a good start and will limit his impact on the coming season.
Looking this roster up and down, they just don't have the quality components that other teams do. They are not a bad team, but it just looks like they will have to prey on teams that make mistakes, avoid them themselves, and rely on a conservative offense to get by.
Count me in as a doubter until Mangini proves me wrong again. With a much stronger schedule ahead, I don't think he will.
Biggest Weakness: Quarterback — Pennington was inconsistent last year and guided a very docile offense last year. I could see Kellen Clemens taking over at some point this season.
Offensive X-Factor: Offensive Line — This offense may not be much, but it will be a lot less without good protection.
Defensive X-Factor: Shaun Ellis — If he can regain his Pro Bowl form, Ellis will attract a lot of attention on the outside, opening things up for Thomas and Hobson.
Fantasy Market: Sell High
No one on this offense is worth reaching for. Thomas Jones is in a new environment and he's not backed up with the league's top defense. Chad Pennington isn't a good fantasy quarterback and there are no tight ends here worth drafting. Coles and Cotchery will make rosters, but expect McCareins and Brad Smith to pull some catches away from those two. They'll also get less looks because the Jets won't have to rely on the passing game so much.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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