2007 is the year of the milestone. Milestones are being reached faster than the mercury rising in August in Phoenix. Coincidentally, Phoenix may very well be the city where the baseball crowns a new champion. Yes, you read that right. The 2007 World Series winner will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Okay, I know what you are thinking. The Diamondbacks have about as much chance of winning the World Series Barry Bonds will hit his 900th home run. Slim chance, right? You don't believe me, right?
Well, the American League definitely has more talent than the National League, especially if you use the past 10 or 11 All-Star Games. Yet the defending World Series Champions are the St. Louis Cardinals. Last I checked, they were in the National League.
In fact, since the Yankees last won the World Series in 2000, it's been pretty even among the leagues. The National League claimed the throne in 2001 (Arizona), 2003 (Florida), and 2006 (St. Louis). Conversely, the American League took the World Series in 2002 (Anaheim), 2004 (Boston), and 2005 (Chicago White Sox).
So each league split the last six Fall Classics, despite home-field advantage for most of the years. (The Diamondbacks were the last NL team to have home-field advantage during the World Series.) If you use the past six World Series, it is a toss-up over which league actually will claim the Fall Classic in 2007.
As it stands now, the Diamondbacks lead the National League West by a comfortable margin over the San Diego Padres, with the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers not too far back and still within striking distance of the NL West throne. So it is definitely too early to make any bold predictions just yet. Yet, in a year full of milestones and individuality, there is one milestone that probably will not be the biggest news of the year, but may very be the one milestone that will determine if my prediction actually has any substance.
Before I explain why the Diamondbacks actually are legitimate contenders, despite playing in the National League and being one of the youngest teams in the majors, let us have a quick recap of milestones reached and records broken (or possibly broken) in the 2007 baseball season:
- Barry Bonds breaks all-time Home Run record (currently at 760);
- Tom Glavine reaches 300 wins;
- Sammy Sosa passes 600 home runs;
- Alex Rodriguez and Frank Thomas pass 500 home runs;
- Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves king, is first pitcher to have 500 career saves;
- Craig Biggio surpassed 3,000 career hits;
- Roger Clemens earned his 350th career win;
- Ryan Howard hit his 100th career home run;
- Roy Halladay and Mark Buerhle both earned their 100th career win;
- The Philadelphia Phillies earned their 10,000th loss as a team (first team ever)
- Ironically, the Chicago Cubs earned their 10,000th "unofficial win"*
- Placido Palanco set a new MLB record with 144 consecutive errorless games;
- Ichiro Suzuki hits the first ever inside-the-park home run in an All-Star Game;
- Bobby Cox is ejected from a game for the 162nd time, an all-time high;
- Ken Griffey, Jr. needs 10 home runs to hit 600 for his career;
- Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez are both a few home runs shy of 500;
- Barry Bonds may have enough at-bats before October to pass 3,000 hits;
- Pedro Martinez, if he plays, is two strikeouts short of 3,000 for his career.
*One note: the Cubs are on the record books as having 9,960 franchise wins, as MLB does not include the 77 wins from the Cubs' days in the National Association in 1871, 1874, and 1875. The New York/San Francisco Giants are the only other team with 10,000 franchise wins.
With all these milestones and accomplishments, there are a few that will probably wait until next year. Gary Sheffield is closing in on 500 career home runs, but it is unlikely he passes it in 2007 (currently at 479). Many Ramirez needs four Grand Slams to pass Lou Gehrig's all-time mark of 22, but that is also unlikely in 2007, as is Randy Johnson earning his 300th career win, and Roger Clemens earning career win 363 (which would tie him with Warren Spahn for most wins by a pitcher all-time in the post-1920 live-ball era).
With all the attention given to many of these milestones, including a few that are hallowed, such as Hank Aaron's home run mark, there is one milestone that, if reached, may have the biggest impact on the 2007 season, despite the greater milestones that many fans and analysts have focused on all year. While this milestone will be remembered this season, in light of the sheer number of milestones this year, it is very possible that we may forget that this one milestone was earned in the midst of "greater" performances that defined the careers of several future Hall of Famers.
Of course, I am talking about Brandon Webb's current shutout streak. On August 17th, he blanked the Atlanta Braves 4-0, extending his streak to 42 scoreless innings. If Webb does not allow another run in his next 18 innings — possibly his next two starts if they are complete games — his streak will hit 60 consecutive innings, passing Orel Hershiser's mark of 59 scoreless innings set in the Dodgers' magical 1988 World Series run. Webb's current streak is currently good for 12th all-time, as Rube Foster (42 innings in 1914 with the Red Sox) and Rube Waddell (43 innings in 1905 with the Athletics) are the next pitchers Webb will probably pass in his next outing.
Webb (13-8) became the first pitcher since Hershiser to go at least 40 innings without giving up a run. He is also just the 21st pitcher in baseball history to reach that milestone.
In a season full of milestones, Webb's current performance not only makes him a candidate to earn his second straight Cy Young Award, but also may be the one milestone that actually has a significant impact on the success of his team.
Okay, so Barry Bonds passed Hank Aaron on the all-time home run list ... and the Giants will finish last in the National League West and miss the playoffs. Craig Biggio has his 3,000th hit in his final major league season ... yet will not get any hits in the World Series. Alex Rodriguez gets his 500th home run and Roger Clemens gets career win number 350, and the Yankees might not even qualify for the postseason. Tom Glavine earns his 300th win, and the Mets may make the playoffs, and while the Phillies have other thoughts, Glavine's 300th win probably has little impact on the Mets making, or even succeeding in, the playoffs.
The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays are both having respectable seasons, yet it is unlikely that Sammy Sosa or Frank Thomas will lead his respective team to the Fall Classic, or even the American League Division Series. While it is nice that nice-guy Trevor Hoffman is the all-time saves king and first closer with 500 saves, I do not remember the last time a team rode a closer to a championship, even though the San Diego Padres will make a decent run at the National League West title, or even earn the wildcard berth. Ken Griffey, Jr. likely gets his 600th home run this season ... but good luck having any postseason home runs.
Finally, Bobby Cox's 162nd ejection — which one ESPN analyst said during a "SportsCenter" show that they probably should have cut into the milestone game in the middle of the program, the same way they did Barry Bonds at-bat as he approached 756 — raises an eyebrow, but will probably make for a great trivia question ("Jeopardy!") in a few years.
Ironically, the milestones that are farthest from the spotlight are the milestones that may actually determine the outcome of the 2007 season. While Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez are both chasing the 500 home run barrier and fighting for a postseason berth, neither the Phillies nor Red Sox qualify for the postseason due to Thome or Ramirez chasing 500.
Instead, Webb's performance in Phoenix is eerie; not just because he may pass Hershiser in perhaps on of the greatest streaks in baseball, but because he will do it looking the same way Hershiser did in 1988 when he had his streak. That year, Hershiser not only won the Cy Young, his performance led the Dodgers to take the National League West, beat the New York Mets in the Championship Series, and then win the World Series in Oakland as the ultimate underdog to a heavily favored Athletics team. As a team, the Dodgers won 94 games — winning a little over 58% of their games.
Nineteen years later, Webb may pass Hershiser's mark — a mark many believed was impossible to pass — while the Diamondbacks take control of the National League West. Should the D-Backs continue this success, it is possible that they have to get past the New York Mets to play in the World Series. If, somehow, that happens, the D-backs will probably be heavy underdogs to whatever team that comes out of the American League. When Webb reached his 42nd scoreless inning, it was the D-Backs 70th win in a 123 games — which is just shy of a 57% winning rate.
If that is not enough, let's look a little ahead at the D-Backs' schedule. With Webb needing to shutout his next 18 innings, the earliest he can pass Hershiser is during the ninth inning on August 28th in San Diego. Ironically, Hershiser passed Don Drysdale in the 10th inning in a game at San Diego ... on September 28th. If Webb is two throw consecutive complete game shutouts, not only will it be ironic that Webb will break Hershiser's mark in the same stadium on almost the same date, we could very well see the D-Backs make a serious run through the playoffs and into the World Series.
Webb started his scoreless inning streak on July 20th at Chicago. While the D-Backs lost to the Cubs, 6-2, Webb gave up 2 earned runs and 1 unearned through 7 innings. He gave up his last run in the sixth, and pitched a scoreless seventh before he left for the game. Trailing 3-2 when he left, it was the last losing decision for Webb, bringing his record to 8-8, while the D-backs fell to 50-48 for the season.
After that game, the D-Backs won eight straight, including a seven-inning shutout against Florida. During the streak, Webb is 5-0, and the D-Backs as a team are 20-5. Yet the upcoming schedule is tough for the D-Backs. After they finish in Atlanta, the next three weeks include games against Milwaukee, Chicago, San Diego (twice), and Colorado.
While Hershiser had 23 wins, 15 complete games, an ERA of 2.26, and 267 innings pitched in 1988, Webb is not having a bad 2007 season. Despite only 13 wins so far — and he may get to 20 — Webb's ERA is 2.63. He also has 4 shutouts, 3 complete games, and with 184.2 innings pitched, he is on pace for about 250 innings pitched by year's end.
If Webb continues his stellar play, he will not only finish the season with a solid record and a leading candidate for the Cy Young Award, the D-Backs will probably win the National League West, and have a chance to play the underdog role in the same manner that the Dodgers did 19 years earlier.
The idea is not so far-fetched. The 1988 Dodgers had several players in the midst of having successful seasons, including Mike Marshall, Jesse Orosco, Brian Holton, Alejandro Pena, and Jay Howell, in addition to the leadership provided by Hershiser, Kirk Gibson, and Mice Scioscia.
The 2007 D-Backs have their fair share of solid contributors, as well, including Orlando Hudson, Eric Byrnes, Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, and Chris Young. As a team, the D-Backs have a .316 batting average, team ERA of 4.03, and only 88 team errors. They also have something else the Dodgers had in 1988 — Kirk Gibson, who is currently a bench coach, and will definitely experience a case of déjà vu should Webb actually reach 60 consecutive scoreless innings in San Diego on August 28th, and if the D-Backs go on to win the division and the World Series.
All you have to do is believe. Just ask the 1988 Dodgers.
August 22, 2007
Jeff Kallman:
Nothing against the Diamondbacks, but the evidence suggests less than an absolute guarantee that Brandon Webb setting a new major league consecutive shutout innings record would telegraph a World Series ring.
Orel Hershiser’s 59 in 1988 did, but Don Drysdale’s 58 in 1968 didn’t. (It didn’t even telegraph a pennant: the Dodgers finished in seventh place.)
Drysdale broke Walter Johnson’s record, set for a 1913 Washington Senators club that finished in second place, six and a half out. Johnson broke Jack Coombs’s 1910 record, which Coombs did set for a World Series winner, but Coombs broke Cy Young’s record—-set in 1904 for a club of Boston Americans [Red Sox] who won the pennant but not the World Series.
Three pennants and two Series winners out of five shutout innings record setters pending Webb. That isn’t exactly a guarantee that a consecutive shutout innings record equals a World Series ring.
August 22, 2007
Parimal Rohit:
Well I am not saying Webb’s performance will “guarantee” a World Series. Indeed, you raise good points about Drysdale, Johnson, Coombs, and Young, and how those ahead of Webb combined for three pennants and two Series wins.
Yet, Webb is getting hot at the right time, and we’ve seen so many contending teams get behind a hot pitcher and ride him to the World Series … Randy Johnson in 2001, Curt Schilling in 2001 and 2004, are two examples that come to mind.
Webb is a solid ace, and the D-Backs could be serious contenders to make the World Series. Once there, I think they have as much a chance of winning it all as any other team. Just look at the D-Backs in 01, or the Angels in 02, the Marlins in 03, and the Red Sox in 04. Given that they have a decent lead in the NL West, and the Mets, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers and Braves (all in NL playoff hunt) are not miles ahead of the D-Backs, meaning Arizona can compete and beat any of those teams in a playoff match-up. Then it is just a question of who they meet in the Series, if they get there.
As for those pitchers who have more scoreless innings pitched than Webb, some of those pitchers did not have the offensive support or regular season success that Webb currently enjoys. Webb isn’t doing it by himself — the D’Backs are on pace to win 90 games, and the 2nd best record in the NL (1.5 games behind NY Mets). They are 5th overall in the Majors (Red Sox, Angels, Mariners, Mets), have a steady rotation, and a solid offense. Their team defense is their only weakness, and may be the only reason why the D-Backs either miss the Series, or even miss the playoffs.
Point is — no one can “guarantee” any team will win the World Series, especially this year, with so many teams still in the playoff race, despite September less than 10 days away. Heck, the Red Sox have the large lead of any division winner over the second place team — a measly 6 games! Yet, the D-Backs have the elements in place to at least make a realistic run at the Series, and if Webb continues to stay hot, we can see yet another up-and-coming team ride a hot pitcher to victory. The Dodgers did that in 1988, the Braves did that in 1995, the D-Backs did it in 2001, the Marlins did it in 2003, the Red Sox did it in 2004, so why can’t the D-Backs do it in 2007? No all great pitchers won a Series when they had spectacular years, but you do need pitching to win in the playoffs. The D-Backs are on pace to make the playoffs, and they have the pitching to at least make some noise in the playoffs, and have just as much a chance to win the World Series as anyone.
And this comes from someone who rooted for the Dodgers for most of my life, so I’m not necessarily a D-Backs fan, even though I sound like one.
August 22, 2007
Jeff Kallman:
Next-to-last paragraph: “Point is—-no one can ‘guarantee’ any team will win the World Series … ” Opening paragraph: “2007 is the year of the milestone. Milestones are being reached faster than the mercury rising in August in Phoenix. Coincidentally, Phoenix may very well be the city where the baseball crowns a new champion. Yes, you read that right. The 2007 World Series winner will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.”
Not “could be” or “might be” or “has the potential to be,” but “will be.” Sounds like a kind of guarantee to me.
But never mind picking a nit. Let’s pick a couple of more informational points, regarding the run support enjoyed or not enjoyed by the pitchers who previously set the consecutive shutout innings streaks:
1) Cy Young rolled up his streak in a season in which the league ERA was 2.60 and his team’s ERA was 2.12, while the league batting average was .244 and its on-base percentage was .295. There probably wasn’t that much offencive support to be had. Or was there? The Americans’ [Red Sox’s] runs per game: 3.87, second in the league.
2) Jack Coombs rolled up his streak in a season in which his team’s batting average was .266, its on-base percentage was .320, and it scored 4.34 runs per game, while the league ERA was 2.52. It’s probably fair to say he got a decent amount of offencive support during his streak, though I wish I had the box scores to verify it for an absolute fact.
3) Walter Johnson rolled up his streak in a season in which his team hit close enough to Coombs’ (team BA: .252) and reached base almost as often (.312), and scored 3.85 runs per game, while the league ERA was just under 3.00 … and the top five hitters in the league—-none of whom were on his team—-hit a combined .361. Again, I’d love to have the box scores to verify, but the Big Train must have gotten some very decent run support given the time and place.
4) Don Drysdale rolled his streak in the Year of the Pitcher … and his team scored 2.90 runs per game on the season. For Drysdale we’ve got the box scores, and here’s the breakdown for Drysdale’s streak:
a) Against Chicago, 14 May: Drysdale went the distance to win, 1-0.
b) Against Houston, 18 May: Likewise.
c) Against St. Louis, 22 May: The Dodgers gave him a present—-an extra run to work with.
d) Against the Astros, again, 26 May: He ended up winning, 5-0, but he had one run to work with after three, two to work with after five, and three to work with after eight.
e) Against San Francisco, 31 May: He won, 3-0, but he had two runs to work with after three innings and three after eight.
f) Against Pittsburgh, 4 June: He beat the Pirates, 5-0; he had three runs to work with after four innings, four after six, and five after seven.
Don Drysdale’s average run support per nine innings during his streak: 2.73.
5) Orel Hershiser’s team scored exactly the National League’s average runs per game in 1988: 3.88, leaving the Dodgers smack in the middle of the pack at sixth in the league. (The Mets led the league with 4.39 and the Atlanta Braves came in last with 3.47.) Here, too, we have the box scores to determine just what Hershiser did and didn’t have to work with while running his streak:
a) Against Montreal, 30 August: The streak began in the sixth inning, after the Expos scored two in the fifth (one due to an error by Hershiser himself). At the time, the Dodgers led, 4-2; that proved the final score, and Hershiser basically had four runs to work going the distance, though you could probably say he had only two to work with for the final four.
b)Against Atlanta, 5 September: He had three runs to work with.
c) Against Cincinnati, 10 September: He had five runs to work with.
d) Against the Braves, 14 September: He had one run to work with. (The Braves were the only team he faced more than once during the streak.)
e) Against Houston, 19 September: Again, he had one run to work with.
f) Against San Francisco, 23 September: He had three runs to work with.
g) Against San Diego, 28 September: He had no runs to work with in ten innings’ work; he didn’t even factor in the decision. (The Dodgers won the game in sixteen innings, the final: 2-1.)
Hershiser averaged 3.42 runs to work with per nine innings of the streak, below the league average of runs per game on the season. It’s probably fair enough to say Hershiser didn’t have terrific run support through the streak, particularly since he had two runs or less to work with in all or the key part of four games during the streak, but he didn’t have terrible support on average, either.
6) Brandon Webb goes tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers, a team he hasn’t faced yet this season. His run support during the streak he has thus far:
a) Against Florida, 25 July: He had seven runs to work with after four of his seven innings’ work.
b) Against San Diego, 31 July: He had two runs to work with after two innings and four to work with after five; it was a seven-inning gig.
c) Against the Dodgers, 5 August: He had two to work with after two and three to work with after four; this was a complete game shutout for him.
d) Against Washington, 11 August: He went the distance with only one run to work with for the final six innings.
e) Against the Braves, 17 August: He went the distance again, having one run to work with for his first seven innings, three to work with after eight, and four to work with when he pitched the bottom of the ninth.
Webb has averaged 4.07 runs to work with per nine innings of the streak in progress, by far the most raw run support of any of the pitchers who’d set the consecutive shutout inning streak before, allowing that we don’t have the box scores at hand for Cy Young, Jack Coombs, and Walter Johnson. Webb’s run support isn’t that much better than Orel Hershiser’s, and probably about the same—-balanced in context—-as that received by Young, Coombs, and Johnson.
Of all the pitchers we’ve been discussing, Don Drysdale was the one pitcher about whom it’s absolutely fair to say that he could have taken his teammates to court for non-support during his shutout innings streak.
But the run support factor almost looms pretty small when all is said and done, even if we’d agree there’s a certain degree more pressure when you’ve got two or less to work with. Shutting out the other guys that continuously is a feat in itself even if you’ve got ten runs to work with in any nine-inning stretch of the streak.
Brandon Webb is threatening to join some very exquisite company.
August 22, 2007
Parimal Rohit:
My man- I absolutely love and respect your responses! Very few people take the time to thoroughly analyze a discussion and properly defend their point of view, something you do so well. Hats off to you!
As for the small point about what I said in the 1st paragraph of the article, saying the D-backs “will win” the World Series, I guess chalk that up to writing style to get you to hook into the article. While such words would indeed come off as a guarantee (you are very right for pointing that out), I figured the sentence right before it (“Phoenix may very well be the city where the baseball crowns a new champion”) and the rest of the article (where I never again used statements to infer a guarantee victory) would be enough to get my intent across. In fact, about 1/3 of the way in, I say “Diamondbacks lead the National League West by a comfortable margin over the San Diego Padres, with the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers not too far back and still within striking distance of the NL West throne. So it is definitely too early to make any bold predictions just yet.” In my mind, I am stopping just short of a guarantee … but like you said, it’s picking a nit.
Webb is indeed joining great company, and that is part of the argument in the article, really, though not really the focus. It’s really three parts — one part of guilty, pointless predictions; one part acknowledging the one accomplishment this year that actually impacts the team’s success; and one part acknowledgment of what Webb is doing, even if his streak ends at 42.
No doubt, Webb is joining exclusive company, regardless of what the DBacks actually do the rest of the way.
August 22, 2007
Jeff Kallman:
My friend, believe me, the time to research is a pleasure; I’m only glad I could get to the resources so quick, even if I still lament I couldn’t get the boxes for Cy Young, Jack Coombs, and Walter Johnson to nail those three down to a final point.
I’m probably thinking, too, that the NL West may turn into more of a dogfight than people might think, unless the Dodgers’ injury bugs turn into downright plagues and leave it to the Snakes and the Friars almost exclusively. And even then …
August 24, 2007
Parimal Rohit:
So I write this article, and what happens? Webb gives up 2 runs in the first inning on Wednesday. I guess I jinxed it, eh? Anyway, the NL West will be a dogfight. The Padres find a way to always stay in it till the end, though they are having their struggles scoring. When the do score, they can’t keep a lead … just the other day vs. the Mets, didn’t Wagner AND Hoffman blow leads? Unbelievable!
The Dodgers just picked up Boomer, and I don’t know how good of a move that is, but he won’t make them worst. He takes over for Tomko, who is like Boomer at his worst, so it’s not loss to sign him, just a question whether he steps up for 3 or 4 wins in the stretch run. They Dodgers won 6 of their last 8 as of yesterday.
The DBacks, well, they are young and the schedule does get tough in September, but I hold to what I said in my article.
Should be a fun month of September … no one outright dominates this season, and ALL races are still alive … first time ever in the Wild Card era … so it will be an amazing month for at least half the league.