Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Orel Hershiser? Meet Brandon Webb!

By Parimal Rohit

2007 is the year of the milestone. Milestones are being reached faster than the mercury rising in August in Phoenix. Coincidentally, Phoenix may very well be the city where the baseball crowns a new champion. Yes, you read that right. The 2007 World Series winner will be the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Okay, I know what you are thinking. The Diamondbacks have about as much chance of winning the World Series Barry Bonds will hit his 900th home run. Slim chance, right? You don't believe me, right?

Well, the American League definitely has more talent than the National League, especially if you use the past 10 or 11 All-Star Games. Yet the defending World Series Champions are the St. Louis Cardinals. Last I checked, they were in the National League.

In fact, since the Yankees last won the World Series in 2000, it's been pretty even among the leagues. The National League claimed the throne in 2001 (Arizona), 2003 (Florida), and 2006 (St. Louis). Conversely, the American League took the World Series in 2002 (Anaheim), 2004 (Boston), and 2005 (Chicago White Sox).

So each league split the last six Fall Classics, despite home-field advantage for most of the years. (The Diamondbacks were the last NL team to have home-field advantage during the World Series.) If you use the past six World Series, it is a toss-up over which league actually will claim the Fall Classic in 2007.

As it stands now, the Diamondbacks lead the National League West by a comfortable margin over the San Diego Padres, with the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers not too far back and still within striking distance of the NL West throne. So it is definitely too early to make any bold predictions just yet. Yet, in a year full of milestones and individuality, there is one milestone that probably will not be the biggest news of the year, but may very be the one milestone that will determine if my prediction actually has any substance.

Before I explain why the Diamondbacks actually are legitimate contenders, despite playing in the National League and being one of the youngest teams in the majors, let us have a quick recap of milestones reached and records broken (or possibly broken) in the 2007 baseball season:

*One note: the Cubs are on the record books as having 9,960 franchise wins, as MLB does not include the 77 wins from the Cubs' days in the National Association in 1871, 1874, and 1875. The New York/San Francisco Giants are the only other team with 10,000 franchise wins.

With all these milestones and accomplishments, there are a few that will probably wait until next year. Gary Sheffield is closing in on 500 career home runs, but it is unlikely he passes it in 2007 (currently at 479). Many Ramirez needs four Grand Slams to pass Lou Gehrig's all-time mark of 22, but that is also unlikely in 2007, as is Randy Johnson earning his 300th career win, and Roger Clemens earning career win 363 (which would tie him with Warren Spahn for most wins by a pitcher all-time in the post-1920 live-ball era).

With all the attention given to many of these milestones, including a few that are hallowed, such as Hank Aaron's home run mark, there is one milestone that, if reached, may have the biggest impact on the 2007 season, despite the greater milestones that many fans and analysts have focused on all year. While this milestone will be remembered this season, in light of the sheer number of milestones this year, it is very possible that we may forget that this one milestone was earned in the midst of "greater" performances that defined the careers of several future Hall of Famers.

Of course, I am talking about Brandon Webb's current shutout streak. On August 17th, he blanked the Atlanta Braves 4-0, extending his streak to 42 scoreless innings. If Webb does not allow another run in his next 18 innings — possibly his next two starts if they are complete games — his streak will hit 60 consecutive innings, passing Orel Hershiser's mark of 59 scoreless innings set in the Dodgers' magical 1988 World Series run. Webb's current streak is currently good for 12th all-time, as Rube Foster (42 innings in 1914 with the Red Sox) and Rube Waddell (43 innings in 1905 with the Athletics) are the next pitchers Webb will probably pass in his next outing.

Webb (13-8) became the first pitcher since Hershiser to go at least 40 innings without giving up a run. He is also just the 21st pitcher in baseball history to reach that milestone.

In a season full of milestones, Webb's current performance not only makes him a candidate to earn his second straight Cy Young Award, but also may be the one milestone that actually has a significant impact on the success of his team.

Okay, so Barry Bonds passed Hank Aaron on the all-time home run list ... and the Giants will finish last in the National League West and miss the playoffs. Craig Biggio has his 3,000th hit in his final major league season ... yet will not get any hits in the World Series. Alex Rodriguez gets his 500th home run and Roger Clemens gets career win number 350, and the Yankees might not even qualify for the postseason. Tom Glavine earns his 300th win, and the Mets may make the playoffs, and while the Phillies have other thoughts, Glavine's 300th win probably has little impact on the Mets making, or even succeeding in, the playoffs.

The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays are both having respectable seasons, yet it is unlikely that Sammy Sosa or Frank Thomas will lead his respective team to the Fall Classic, or even the American League Division Series. While it is nice that nice-guy Trevor Hoffman is the all-time saves king and first closer with 500 saves, I do not remember the last time a team rode a closer to a championship, even though the San Diego Padres will make a decent run at the National League West title, or even earn the wildcard berth. Ken Griffey, Jr. likely gets his 600th home run this season ... but good luck having any postseason home runs.

Finally, Bobby Cox's 162nd ejection — which one ESPN analyst said during a "SportsCenter" show that they probably should have cut into the milestone game in the middle of the program, the same way they did Barry Bonds at-bat as he approached 756 — raises an eyebrow, but will probably make for a great trivia question ("Jeopardy!") in a few years.

Ironically, the milestones that are farthest from the spotlight are the milestones that may actually determine the outcome of the 2007 season. While Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez are both chasing the 500 home run barrier and fighting for a postseason berth, neither the Phillies nor Red Sox qualify for the postseason due to Thome or Ramirez chasing 500.

Instead, Webb's performance in Phoenix is eerie; not just because he may pass Hershiser in perhaps on of the greatest streaks in baseball, but because he will do it looking the same way Hershiser did in 1988 when he had his streak. That year, Hershiser not only won the Cy Young, his performance led the Dodgers to take the National League West, beat the New York Mets in the Championship Series, and then win the World Series in Oakland as the ultimate underdog to a heavily favored Athletics team. As a team, the Dodgers won 94 games — winning a little over 58% of their games.

Nineteen years later, Webb may pass Hershiser's mark — a mark many believed was impossible to pass — while the Diamondbacks take control of the National League West. Should the D-Backs continue this success, it is possible that they have to get past the New York Mets to play in the World Series. If, somehow, that happens, the D-backs will probably be heavy underdogs to whatever team that comes out of the American League. When Webb reached his 42nd scoreless inning, it was the D-Backs 70th win in a 123 games — which is just shy of a 57% winning rate.

If that is not enough, let's look a little ahead at the D-Backs' schedule. With Webb needing to shutout his next 18 innings, the earliest he can pass Hershiser is during the ninth inning on August 28th in San Diego. Ironically, Hershiser passed Don Drysdale in the 10th inning in a game at San Diego ... on September 28th. If Webb is two throw consecutive complete game shutouts, not only will it be ironic that Webb will break Hershiser's mark in the same stadium on almost the same date, we could very well see the D-Backs make a serious run through the playoffs and into the World Series.

Webb started his scoreless inning streak on July 20th at Chicago. While the D-Backs lost to the Cubs, 6-2, Webb gave up 2 earned runs and 1 unearned through 7 innings. He gave up his last run in the sixth, and pitched a scoreless seventh before he left for the game. Trailing 3-2 when he left, it was the last losing decision for Webb, bringing his record to 8-8, while the D-backs fell to 50-48 for the season.

After that game, the D-Backs won eight straight, including a seven-inning shutout against Florida. During the streak, Webb is 5-0, and the D-Backs as a team are 20-5. Yet the upcoming schedule is tough for the D-Backs. After they finish in Atlanta, the next three weeks include games against Milwaukee, Chicago, San Diego (twice), and Colorado.

While Hershiser had 23 wins, 15 complete games, an ERA of 2.26, and 267 innings pitched in 1988, Webb is not having a bad 2007 season. Despite only 13 wins so far — and he may get to 20 — Webb's ERA is 2.63. He also has 4 shutouts, 3 complete games, and with 184.2 innings pitched, he is on pace for about 250 innings pitched by year's end.

If Webb continues his stellar play, he will not only finish the season with a solid record and a leading candidate for the Cy Young Award, the D-Backs will probably win the National League West, and have a chance to play the underdog role in the same manner that the Dodgers did 19 years earlier.

The idea is not so far-fetched. The 1988 Dodgers had several players in the midst of having successful seasons, including Mike Marshall, Jesse Orosco, Brian Holton, Alejandro Pena, and Jay Howell, in addition to the leadership provided by Hershiser, Kirk Gibson, and Mice Scioscia.

The 2007 D-Backs have their fair share of solid contributors, as well, including Orlando Hudson, Eric Byrnes, Mark Reynolds, Conor Jackson, Chad Tracy, and Chris Young. As a team, the D-Backs have a .316 batting average, team ERA of 4.03, and only 88 team errors. They also have something else the Dodgers had in 1988 — Kirk Gibson, who is currently a bench coach, and will definitely experience a case of déjà vu should Webb actually reach 60 consecutive scoreless innings in San Diego on August 28th, and if the D-Backs go on to win the division and the World Series.

All you have to do is believe. Just ask the 1988 Dodgers.

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