Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
If there ever was a season where Bill Belichick's New England Patriots looked vulnerable, 2006 would be it.
As the team parted with stalwart receivers Deion Branch and David Givens in the offseason, there weren't enough weapons to keep Tom Brady content. As a matter of fact, there was hullabaloo that Brady was displeased with management.
While the front office tried a few tricks, such as acquiring Doug Gabriel, the fix proved to be in-house.
At the beginning of the season, every NFL fan wondered how the heck the Patriots were going to get by with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, who was cut earlier by the Philadelphia Eagles. But just as they got by with Randall Gay and Troy Brown at cornerback in the 2004 AFC Championship Game, the Pats got by with lesser parts at wide receiver.
With two solid running backs on the roster, Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, the Pats leaned more on their running game.
Dillon, who clearly lost the speed from his speed and power combination, was the inside bruiser, while Maroney was the explosive outside threat.
The Patriots also switched to 30-year-old Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator in the offseason, but even with the lack of weapons and change on the sideline, the Patriots still scored more points-per-game in 2006 than they did in 2005.
On defense, it looked like the Pats' aging roster was finally over the hill and that their defense would start to slow.
With Tedy Bruschi coming back after suffering a surprise stroke, then the Patriots signing Chad Brown and Junior Seau, it looked the Patriots were finally going to collapse on defense. Not to mention they lost their second defensive coordinator, Eric Mangini, in the last three years and also were forced to play without starting safeties Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison for the better part of the season.
But lo and behold, not only did the Patriots avoid any decline, they actually improved significantly in the rankings. In 2005, they finished 25th overall. In 2006, they ranked sixth.
Like a zone-blocking scheme, like Denver running backs and like Dungy linebackers, you can't evaluate anything on paper. You have to remember the system, the track record and trust that they will once again be successful until they prove otherwise.
Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Shrewd Signings
By now, I'm sure you've heard that the Patriots, who have been employing the Moneyball approach in the NFL, have cracked open the piggy bank this offseason.
But with a closer examination, the Patriots haven't really changed their approach.
For starters, Randy Moss restructured his two-year, $20m, contract to a one-year, $3m, contract. The Minnesota Vikings just signed Bobby Wade to $3m a year. At that price, would you rather Moss or Wade? Obviously, Moss.
Next, the Patriots signed Donte Stallworth to a six-year, $33m deal. At the end of the free agency period, the Philadelphia Eagles signed Kevin Curtis to a six-year, $32m contract. Once again, who would you rather if the contracts are equal? Obviously, Stallworth.
The beauty of Stallworth's contract (for the Patriots) is that they can cut him at the end of this season, which will mean they have paid him $3.6m for one year of his services.
Through a trade, the Patriots acquired Wes Welker, who led the Miami Dolphins in receptions last year, and signed him to a five-year, $18m contract. Yet another reasonable contract.
The Patriots got an early jump on free agency with linebacker Adalius Thomas, as well, signing him to a five-year, $35m contract with $20m in guarantees. Seem like a lot of money? Not really, especially when you consider Joey Porter, a linebacker considered on the downside of his career, signed for $32m over five years with the same amount in guarantees less than a week later.
The Patriots ended up with Moss, Stallworth, and Thomas for the same price that other teams paid for Wade, Curtis, and Porter. Sounds like a pretty good free agency period for the Patriots if you ask me.
If You're Going To Crown Them, Then Crown Them
After getting by (three Super Bowls in five seasons) with waiver-wire castoffs and now introducing A- and B-list stars to their roster, it's no wonder the Pats are the Super Bowl favorite.
A year ago, they were hoping that second-round pick Chad Jackson would be competing for one of the starting jobs. This year, he'll be lucky to crack the top four in the rotation.
With Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Kelley Washington (who is another under-the-radar pickup), Jackson, and last year's leading receiver, Caldwell, there are now more than enough receivers to keep Brady content. The Pats are also loaded at tight end — even with the departure of Daniel Graham. Ben Watson, Kyle Brady, and David Thomas cover all the bases.
The only real concern on offense is whether the Maroney can handle the fulltime role as a running back. He got beat up last year and has split carries throughout his NFL and college career. Look for the Patriots to get Sammy Morris or Heath Evans involved more than you think.
On defense, the Patriots have infused a lot of talent, as well. Thomas is the big name, but look for first-round pick Brandon Meriweather to be contributing significantly. Meriweather is very versatile and can play safety or corner.
With or without Asante Samuel, I wouldn't be overly concerned. With him, this will be a very sound secondary. Without him ... well the Patriots used Randall Gay and Troy Brown to get by at one point.
Up front, the Patriots have the best three linemen manning a 3-4 defense. Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, and Ty Warren are all Pro Bowl-caliber and backup Jarvis Green keeps two of them fresh. There isn't much depth behind Wilfork.
At linebacker, the Pats added Thomas, which should take some pressure off the grayed veterans. Bruschi and Vrabel are deteriorating, but with Junior Seau also back, they should have the two inside positions locked down between the three of them.
It doesn't look like there is a lot of depth on this defense, but it is kind of guised. They are versatile enough to switch between the 4-3 or 3-4 to mask different weakness if need be.
Who Can Stop Them?
The San Diego Chargers won't stop the Patriots. Neither will the Indianapolis Colts, who downgraded this offseason.
The Chargers best shot came last year. Now with a new coaching staff and a secondary that now has to deal with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker, instead of just Caldwell, the Chargers aren't going to stop them.
The lone AFC team that has their number is the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have won five of the last six meetings, including the last three in New England. If you recall, it was the Broncos that handed Tom Brady his first playoff loss ever.
The Broncos, similar to how the Patriots and Colts, just know what to do to defeat the Patriots. The Broncos have a very good team and a better quarterback than last season and they appear to have the best shot at taking out the Patriots.
Biggest Weakness: Inside Linebacker — Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel have slowed down and Junior Seau is their backup.
Offensive X-Factor: Randy Moss — Remember the Randy Ratio? Moss being triple-teamed on each play? Moss opening up running lanes for Robert Smith? Moss taking on double and triple coverage? The Pats may have acquired a future Hall of Famer and it only cost them a fourth-round pick.
Defensive X-Factor: Vince Wilfork — Under-appreciated, Wilfork makes the 3-4 work. He takes on double-teams every play and his hard work rarely shows up on the stat sheet.
Fantasy Market: Sell High
Laurence Maroney hasn't had the full-time duties as a ball carrier in either college or in his first year in the Pros. Last year, he took 175 (not many of them for tough yards) and still endured knee and shoulder injuries. The Patriots have used Heath Evans and also signed Sammy Morris, which indicates that they plan to give some of Maroney's duties to other backs.
Maroney is going in the first round or early second round and it might be too high for a guy who is still recovering from shoulder surgery. He will probably be pulled out for tough yardage situations and the Pats have shown they are comfortable using Evans or Morris in that case.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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