If Andre Agassi had ideas of passing his U.S. Open torch to a fellow American when he retired last year inside Arthur Ashe Stadium, his compatriot successors are not reciprocating.
At 35-years-old in 2005, Agassi went all the way to the finals, a run punctuated by a 7-6 in-the-fifth classic quarterfinal win over James Blake. Then last year, with back ailing, Agassi delivered again. This time, the heroic effort came in the second round in the form of another one-for-the-ages thriller, a five-setter over Marcos Baghdatis. If Jimmy Connors/Aaron Krickstein was once the staple rain delay feature on the Arthur Ashe Stadium video screens, now Agassi has two juggernauts to supplant it.
Ever since Agassi's epic win over Baghdatis and emotional farewell speech after his third-round loss to Benjamin Becker, American tennis fans have had little to arouse their most passionate of emotions. Nothing to shout over. Nothing to cry over. Nothing to celebrate. And if recent Grand Slam results are any indication, there won't be much celebration going on among the USA faithful next week around the grounds of the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
It wasn't all bad at the Australian Open earlier this year, but it wasn't particularly good either. Three Americans made it to at least the fourth round, but each one saw his run end in extremely disappointing fashion. James Blake ran into a sizzling Fernando Gonzalez in the fourth round, but instead of putting up a fight against Gonzo's punishing groundstrokes, Blake, in a very un-Blake-like, way didn't even compete. Gonzalez advanced with relative ease in three sets.
Mardy Fish enjoyed a surprising trek to the quarterfinals, but his fortnight ended just like Blake's in that he showed zero belief once he ran into someone playing great tennis. At least that someone was fellow American Andy Roddick, who erased Fish 6-2, 6-2, 6-2. Roddick, however, promptly took a giant step back in his pursuit to take down Roger Federer. Roddick got trounced 6-4, 6-2, 6-0 in what is the most lopsided score of Roddick's 13 losses to Federer (in 14 career tries).
While the American effort at Roland Garros was historically bad, it was not exactly alarming. U.S. men went 1-9 at the French Open in 2006, and this time they did themselves one better — or one worse. Ten made an appearance in the main draw. Zero appeared in the second round. That's right; the Americans were sent home from Paris with no wins and 10 losses to their credit. Should we have been surprised? Not in the least. In fact, if just one American wins one match at the French Open in 2008, I'll wage a celebration in the streets similar to that of the whole country of Italy when its soccer team won the 2006 World Cup.
Granted, how the Americans fared on the clay three months ago has little to bearing on their prospects at the U.S. Open, but it still shows just how bad they were — and to an extent still are — playing.
Wimbledon, a better indication of a player's form heading into the U.S. Open Series, wasn't much better. Just three Americans got out of the dreaded first round. Roddick made it to the quarters, nothing out of the ordinary for him, where he was upset by Richard Gasquet 8-6 in the fifth. Roddick couldn't do much about Gasquet being completely on fire from all over the court, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a disappointing result for him. James Blake was the only other American to reach just the third round, and there he lost to a mostly clay-court player in Juan Carlos Ferrero.
The Americans' struggles this year beg the question: are they playing bad, or are they just bad, period?
Well, they certainly aren't deep. After Roddick and Blake, the consensus top two players from the United States, there is a huge gap. And it's a gap that only 19-year-old Sam Querrey seems interested in closing. Querrey had his best tournament as a professional last week in Cincinnati. He beat the No. 10 player the world, Mikhail Youzhny, en route to the quarterfinals, where he had Blake on the ropes before eventually losing in three sets. Querrey has a huge serve and forehand, but he must improve his movement and especially his net game in order to really compete for major titles. For now, we can't expect the youngster to make it past the third or fourth round at the U.S. Open.
After Querrey, there's little to be excited about. Mardy Fish is the next American you'll find in the rankings, all the way down at No. 51. Because he spent more time spraining an ankle kicking footballs than he did playing tennis this summer, Fish shouldn't be thought of as being anywhere close to one of the best 50 tennis players in the world right now.
Coming in next for the Americans is a motley trio of Robby Ginepri, Vince Spadea, and Michael Russell between 58 and 60 in the rankings. None should elicit any hope whatsoever out of U.S. tennis fans, and if they combine for just one match win at the Open, I'll call it a success. Heck, Ginepri has won just one match since Queen's Club in June. He's won one more match than Rafael Nadal has titles this year. Russell, meanwhile, hasn't won consecutive matches since Indian Wells in March. Spadea has a sizzling 21-20 match record this year (note the wreaking sarcasm in that, but it really is a great record compared to other Americans), but he is 33-years-old and certainly on the decline. He won't be a factor at the U.S. Open whether he's playing well or not.
The only other Americans in the top 100 are Amer Delic and Paul Goldstein. For some reason, a lot of tennis fans think Delic is one of the future American hopes, but I guess they don't understand that he is already 25-years-old and has done nothing of significance yet on the ATP Tour. Goldstein, well, he's a nice guy off the court, but he's in the twilight of a career than was mediocre at best even during his younger days.
In other words, a new generation needs to start following Querrey's lead and take some of the American load off Roddick and Blake. With such a thin depth chart, the future needs to be now for the young Americans I'm about to discuss. Unfortunately, the future is just that: the future. That's not to say we can't get a little excited right now, but we can't expect too much noise out of these guys next week in Flushing Meadows.
The three most notable Americans who received wildcards into the Open are Donald Young, John Isner, and Wayne Odesnik. The other four (Ryan Sweeting, Michael McClune, Alex Kuznetsov, and Jesse Levine) are probably a few years away from drawing national attention and making an impact on the pro circuit. Young hasn't done any of the latter, but he does make headlines.
Young, 18, isn't quite all hype anymore, but he's going to have to start winning matches on the pro tour in order to really deserve it. He did just that in the first round of this week's Pilot Pen tournament in New Haven, beating Delic to win his first ATP level match and end his professional-opening 0-for-11 slump. Two of those losses came at the U.S. Open. He lost to Giorgio Galimberti in straight sets in 2005 and last year somehow took the first set off Novak Djokovic before getting wiped off the court. Young's Junior Wimbledon title two months ago is a very encouraging sign, and his win over Delic also spurs hope, but Young is still isn't ready for the big-time, and I'd say the U.S. Open qualifies as big-time.
Isner, 22, is a whole different story. He led the University of Georgia to the NCAA title earlier this year and lost in the finals of the singles competition before turning pro. What a professional debut he made two weeks ago at the Legg Mason Classic in Washington, D.C. En route to the final against Andy Roddick, Isner took out Tim Henman, Benjamin Becker, Wayne Odesnik, Tommy Haas, and Gael Monfils. Moreover, he beat every single one of them in the third-set tiebreaker, obviously setting an ATP record. He also set the record for the most aces in a non-Grand Slam event since the ATP began keeping stats in 1991 with 144. Not a bad way to start your career, eh?
At 6'9", Isner has the physical tools and the power to hang with anyone on tour, but the reality of it is that he has a lot of work to do before he can become a consistent force to be reckoned with. He will obviously never be nimble around the court, but he needs to improve his movement and he really needs to develop a stellar net-game. For now, his serve will give him a chance to win a few matches in Flushing Meadows as long as he gets a decent draw, but anything more than a third-round showing would almost be too good to be true. Then again, wasn't his run in Washington?
Odesnik, 21, is just now making a name for himself, as he is playing the best tennis of his life this summer. He entered 2007 with zero ATP match wins, and now he has three in the past three weeks. Odesnik scored a very nice win over Juan Martin del Potro in the second round of Washington before becoming Isner's third victim. He picked up right where he left off in the first round of Montreal, stunning Ivan Ljubicic in a third-set tiebreaker. Odesnik could win a match or two at the Open if the draw is nice, but I don't see him becoming a real factor on the ATP Tour, at least not anytime soon.
So unless Querrey or one of the other young guns emerges ahead of their time next week at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, it's going to be up to Roddick and Blake to capture the hearts and minds of the U.S. Open crowd. Neither one, however, is in particularly good shape to do so.
After pulling out of Montreal with a strained abdominal muscle, Blake sprinted all the way to Cincinnati finals and looked good doing it. He rolled over Alejandro Falla and Nicolas Kiefer in the first two rounds and then got some very impressive revenge on Juan Carlos Ferrero, who beat him at Wimbledon, with a 6-1, 6-4 rout. Blake slipped up in the first set of his quarterfinal matchup with Querrey, but he quickly caught fire and turned things around to win in three sets. There was no such gift first set for Nikolay Davydenko in the semis, as Blake dominated the No. 4 player in the world right from the start for a 6-4, 6-2 win.
But just as Blake gave the pro-American crowd reason to hope going into his final against Federer — who had not been close to the top of his game on his way to the finals — he fizzled to the Swiss without much of a fight. Blake had never been close to beating Federer in six previous attempts, but this one just wasn't close at all. While Blake is obviously going up against a player with superior talent, it's the mental block that really prevents Blake from having any chance against Federer. If the two end up meeting in the second week of the U.S. Open, the memory of what happened last week in Cincinnati will stunt any hope Blake — or the crowd — has for an upset.
As for Roddick, well, Federer should be the least of his worries. This summer he couldn't even beat Frank Dancevic in Indianapolis, and then he couldn't beat clay-court guru David Ferrer on Roddick's favorite surface in Cincinnati. Right now, it looks like Roddick won't advance far enough at the Open to even get a shot at Federer, regardless of how the draw comes out. Of course, that's probably a good thing. Roddick is 1-13 lifetime against Federer and zero for the past nine.
But what if Blake and Roddick were playing well heading into the U.S. Open? Would the excitement level among American tennis fans be any different? I'm not sure. I know it's unfair to ask those two to be as charismatic as the legendary Agassi, but I don't think either one would breathe real life into the Open fans even with an appearance in the second week of the tournament; Roddick because of his personality, and Blake because of his past Grand Slam results.
Roddick has his fair share of fan support, but he also has his haters. He's cocky, temperamental, and has never been known to be overly friendly with opponents, ball-kids, or chair umpires.
Blake is well-loved for his comeback from various off-the-court problems and his general nice-guy demeanor. Unfortunately, his results in Grand Slams have not been quite as good as his results in the hearts of fans or his results on the best-seller list (with his recently-released book, Breaking Back). Blake has only reached the quarterfinal of a Grand Slam just twice, the first time — as we all remember — at the 2005 U.S. Open when he lost to Andre Agassi in an all-time classic.
Two quarterfinal appearances for a guy who has been ranked in to the top 10 the past two years and has been a force for much longer than that is simply unacceptable. Blake has also never won a five-set match in his entire career. That doesn't exactly elicit hope heading into a Grand Slam. So while the J-Block and the rest of the Arthur Ashe faithful will want to believe in him, whether or not they can believe in him is a whole different matter.
With just one week heading into the biggest tennis tournament in the United States, it looks like the proceedings will be dominated by a Swiss (Federer), a Serb (Djokovic), and perhaps a Spaniard (Nadal). Even an Aussie (Hewitt), a Cypriot (Baghdatis), and a host of Russians (led by Davydenko and Youzhny) could make the second week of the U.S. Open an all-foreign affair.
That doesn't mean the tennis won't be extremely exciting, but it does mean the atmosphere in Arthur Ashe stadium will almost certainly be a lot different than it was the past two years. It will be a diverse crowd, one that will root for all different kinds of players, and one whose allegiances will be weak and subject to change from day to day.
The past two years it's been a crowd that united as one. It rose and fell and cheered and cried in unison, each emotion over Andre Agassi. This year, there is no Agassi. This year, it looks like the Arthur Ashe faithful will have to live vicariously through the video screen during rain delays in order to recapture the glory of days gone by.
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