Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
When Brad Johnson stepped in for Daunte Culpepper in 2005 and finished the regular season with seven wins in nine games, the new coaching staff in Minnesota had reason to believe that Johnson still had some gas left in the tank for 2006.
That was a mistake.
As we've seen many a time, a quarterback can succeed in a no-pressure situation, but then fails the following year when the burden is on his shoulders.
The worst thing about the Vikings' six-win season was not the fact that they finished with an ugly record, or missed the playoffs. They weren't planning on making a big dent to begin with. The problem was that, as a rebuilding team, they didn't experience much growth.
Starting Johnson at quarterback meant that Tarvaris Jackson wasn't getting snaps and wasn't developing.
In a group of busts at wide receiver, including former first-round picks Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson, neither emerged as a reliable target in Brad Childress' new offense. No receiver had more than 57 receptions or 651 receiving yards.
The front lines were strong for the most part, although left tackle Bryant McKinnie had an off-year after signing a big contract, but were not as dominant as expected. That was mostly in part to the right side of the line.
The lone bright spot on offense was running back Chester Taylor. After serving as Baltimore's backup/third down back, there were concerns as to whether he could handle the full-time duty. They grinded the hell out of him, feeding him 248 carries in the first three months of the season, which eventually wore him down. He also caught 42 passes.
On defense, with Pat Williams and Kevin Williams in the center of the defensive line, nobody ran on the Vikings. But their weaknesses in the passing game were exploited quite easily. The Vikings racked up only 30 sacks, which clearly indicates that they didn't get enough pressure up front.
In short, a secondary with Antoine Winfield, Darren Sharper, Dwight Smith, and Cedric Griffin won't rank as the worst passing defense again as long as they get some help. This is actually a pretty good unit if the Vikings can generate some more pressure.
A lack of growth in Childress' first season has already burned up his honeymoon time. The 2006 Vikings looked like a team that is poised for further decline and further rebuilding; not a team that is getting back on the rise.
Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Pass Rush
The Viking had 30 sacks in 2006. That puts them ahead of Houston, Cleveland, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, and Washington — not exactly great company.
As mentioned above, starting right end, James, was injured for virtually the whole season and Udeze struggled, which put veteran Darrion Scott and rookie Ray Edwards right into the fire.
The entire group of defensive ends tallied 11.5 sacks, which is an abysmal total. Aaron Kampman from the division rival Green Bay Packers had four more (15.5) on his own than all of the Vikings' ends.
The rest of the Vikings linemen compiled six more sacks.
Their first-round pick track record hasn't been so hot, which has contributed to the problems.
Linebacker Chad Greenway (2006) missed his entire rookie season because of a torn ACL. End Erasmus James (2005) also busted his ACL (in the second game of the season). End Kenechi Udeze (2004), who had five sacks in his rookie season, only has one in the last two seasons.
These guys are supposed to be the cornerstones of the front seven, particularly Udeze and James, but injuries stunted their growth, and therefore hampered the Vikings' pass rush.
There weren't any superstars acquired to address the pass rush, which means the fix has to come in-house.
Brad Childress Already On The Hot Seat?
How about that for a premature call!
The math is simple: the Vikings regressed in his first season and there isn't a lot of optimism heading into this season.
Nowadays, head coaches get about three years to turn around a program and if the Vikings don't make a significant push in the second half of this season, Childress should start feeling the heat.
The Glass Is Half Empty
If the Vikings were a used car that we were breaking down for parts, here is what pieces have value:
The offensive line is fairly good, especially from center down the left side. The right side is under a bit of construction, but right guard Artis Hicks should be stronger in his second season (he used to play left guard and last year was his first at right guard).
The running game is in excellent shape. Chester Taylor proved to be unspectacular, but very capable last season and the Vikings added first-round pick Adrian Peterson, who is the game-breaker.
On defense, the Vikings have a reliable secondary and two of the NFL's best defensive tackles.
If the Vikings reaped average performance from every other position and made minimal mistakes, they could be a six-to-eight win team. Unfortunately, the other positions will probably drag this team down.
We'll start with quarterback, where Tarvaris Jackson takes over the starting role. He's basically a rookie since the Vikings waited so long to get him into the lineup in his first year. Naturally, in training camp, he's had his good moments and he's had his share of bad moments. For the first half of the season, the Vikings can't expect any sort of consistency from him and should expect higher than a normal amount of turnovers.
What's worse is that he doesn't have any premiere receivers to work with. Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson are the top targets — do I really need to say much more than that?
No opposing defense will trust Jackson and will stack the line of scrimmage in order to keep the ball in his hands.
On defense, the Vikings are virtually the same, but get back Greenway and James from injury. Both players are supposed to make an impact but both are off of serious injuries.
Outside of the return of James, the defensive line, which accounted for only 17.5 sacks last year, hasn't change at all. That is not good news considering that a pretty good secondary went to waste when the Vikings couldn't rush the passer last year.
If all of these points prove to be true and the Vikings once again win six games, expect ownership to take a long look at Childress and what he's done in his two seasons in Minnesota and question whether to bring him back.
The Glass Is Half Full
Yes, the Vikings are starting a rookie quarterback and yes, he didn't get many snaps last year.
But let's be honest for a second: they used Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger last year. Will Jackson be any worse?
The same can be said for the wide receiving corps. The only way they can go is up.
Williamson, who has only 61 receptions in two seasons, has worked overtime in the offseason to prove that he's not a bust. He went to a special Nike training center to balance out the depth perception in his eyes and bought a football-tossing machine and caught rockets from it daily.
Don't forget, wide receiver draft picks take a while to develop. Williamson is entering his third year and should get back on track this year.
The team also added veteran wideout Bobby Wade, who should solidify the slot role, and several draft picks, including South Carolina standout Sidney Rice.
The offense may have been consistent last season, but it was consistently bad. Even if they are sporadically good in 2007, that will be an upgrade.
On defense, the Vikings haven't made significant changes, but they weren't particularly necessary.
The Vikings may have had a huge disparity between their run and pass defense, but the result was that they only allowed 20.4 points per game (14th in NFL). It's not a great number, but they can easily shave a point or two off of that.
With Greenway returning on the weakside, the Vikings will have a playmaker who is excellent in pass coverage. Losing blockers will be his biggest task, but the run defense is solid anyway. E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber will start with him and Dontarrious Thomas is a versatile backup behind them.
On the line, James has yet to get back, but they have brought him along slowly. They need him to make an impact. The same can be said for Udeze, who will be tagged a bust if he doesn't.
But let's assume the best. If these guys comeback and provide 10-12 sacks, the defense will be significantly better. With Scott still in the rotation and Edwards entering his sophomore year, the Vikings should have an adequate rotation.
If all of these things come to fruition, it won't matter how many games the Vikes win in 2007. They will have shown enough positive growth that will allow the franchise and the front office to raise the bar for 2008.
So Which Is It?
I'm sitting on the fence, since I believe it is in between.
Look for the Vikings defense to become a premier unit in the second half of the season. They have a good, young linebacking corps, and a quality secondary. All they are really missing on defense is sacks and they have young prospects (James, Udeze, and Edwards) that are supposed to get them.
On offense, the picture is murkier. No one really knows what they have in Jackson, Williamson, Rice, and Allison. Williamson will be the best player of the group this year, but in the end, that might not be saying much.
Worst Offseason Move
The Vikings signed career-backup tight end Visanthe Shiancoe to a five-year, $18.5m contract. Shiancoe, who never impressed even when he got the starting role with Jeremy Shockey hurt, hit the lottery.
Not only is this too much money, considering not many other teams were in the running, but why secure him for five years?
Speaking of overpaying and securing a half-decent veteran for way too long, the Vikings also gave Bobby Wade a five-year, $15m contract. Considering the last two teams he played for, the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans, were both desperately low on receiving options still didn't make any real effort to re-sign him is a bit of a red flag.
Both of these players are contributors, but are clearly overpaid.
Biggest Weakness: Quarterback — Tarvaris Jackson is an unknown and the Vikes have no veteran backups in case he falters.
Offensive X-Factor: Troy Williamson — What would help Jackson's development is if he had some reliable targets to throw to. Williamson has to hold onto the ball when it flies his way and he has to be a playmaker in the passing game.
Defensive X-Factor: Erasmus James — Simply put, this defense won't be any better if they don't generate sacks.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
If you are looking for a decent defense, the Vikings could be your bet. It seems like defensive points allowed is interlocked with how many points the offense puts up, which in the Vikings case, should be fairly low. The Vikings plan to run the ball and play defense a lot, which will translate into numerous low-scoring affairs. And considering their lack of sacks, they are still a very good option for interceptions. They had 21 picks in 2006, which was the fifth-most in the NFL.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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