Rolling the Dice: An NFL Fantasy Draft Story

Hypothetical: you land pick No. 5 in a non-keeper league. Picks No. 1 through 4 are LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Shaun Alexander. Who do you take?

This was my predicament on Saturday night as the first of my three fantasy drafts officially kicked off the season. Last year, I landed the first pick and rode L.T. all season long. This year, no such luck.

I'm not a big fan of taking quarterbacks in the first round, so that takes out Peyton Manning. Plus, I hate him and I don't like picking players I hate. I'm weird that way. The other top backs on my rankings are Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai, and Willie Parker. Five feels too early.

I'm a huge believer in Travis Henry as the next Broncos feature back, but ... how do I put this nicely ... this league is the group of friends I drink with. There are a couple of sports diehards, but the general level of commitment is less than devout. In other words, I felt comfortable I could get Henry at 15.

So what do I do?

I roll the dice.

L.J.

The guy has more than 3,500 yards rushing, 74 receptions, and 40 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He doesn't turn 28 until this season, and though he had a ridiculous 416 carries last year, he's still under 1,000 for his pro career after sitting behind Priest Holmes for two years.

Then again, he's holding out with no sign of reporting. His offensive line is the worst it's been in a decade and he's going to have either Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle as his starting QB.

So it's a risk. But it could pay off in a league title, something that's been frustratingly out of reach in this league, even though I have the best regular season W-L record since we started five years ago.

Instead of taking a game-by-game look at Week 2 in the preseason, we'll take a walk through the rest of my draft, looking at the players I targeted and lost, the players I targeted and got, and the players I took in a moment of panic because I didn't know what else to do.

(Hey, it happens, especially when you're the commish and you land the middle spot, giving minimum turn time between picks.)

Round 1 — L.J. I'm going to have to draft big on running backs to protect myself against a Dirty Bird (named after former Falcons RB Jamal Anderson, who, after rushing a then-record 410 times in 1998, held out through the next preseason, then blew out his knee in game two of the 1999 season).

(Oh no. What have I done?)

Round 2 — Son of a bitch! Henry goes one pick before me, so I'm left scrambling. Manning is off the board, as is Marc Bulger. So are Addai, Parker, Westbrook, Reggie Bush, Lawrence Maroney, and Rudi Johnson. Steve Smith was the first WR taken. Tick tock tick tock.

Ocho Cinco.

This is a good time to recap the two central tenets of my draft strategy.

1. Take the best players on the best teams.

2. Take guys who end up on "SportsCenter" a lot. It makes the season more fun (which, don't forget, is the entire freaking point.)

Chad Johnson fits the bill on both counts. Plus, I've never had him before. It's about time I got to root for the guy.

Round 3 — The next two QBs on my sheet, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, are gone. So is Carson Palmer, wiping out the last of the top tier at the position. (Donovan McNabb is also gone. I could see him having a huge year, but I would have waited a while before pulling the trigger.)

Screw it. Build the WR corps. Reggie Wayne. I've had the guy three years running, and he's never disappointed (an average of 82 receptions, 1,190 yards, and 8.7 TDs per season over the past three). Plus, he's clearly taken the No. 1 job, if not the title, from Marvin Harrison.

Round 4 — Time to take value. My RB depth chart is still just a question mark, but I've got a chance to take a touchdown machine at TE (32 in three years as a full-time starter). Antonio Gates, come on down.

Round 5 — I absolutely have to take an RB. Luckily for me, Thomas Jones is still available. I'm not worried about the calf injury. Not only is Jones traditionally durable, having played at least 14 games in six of his seven professional seasons, but he's going into the perfect situation in New York. He's got a quality coaching staff, up-and-coming offensive line, and a decent passing attack. I just have to make sure I draft Leon Washington as insurance.

Round 6 — Things are starting to get a little shaky. I loaded up at WR early, so I can't take Randy Moss (which would have just been a homer pick anyway). I have Gates, so I can't take Todd Heap. I can tell the run on defense is about to begin, but I'm not jumping. Too early.

I still need running backs, so it's Julius Jones. Another question pick. He's the starter and you can bank on him for another 1,000-yard season. My gamble is that Wade Phillips is more likely to give Jones some red zone action, whereas Bill Parcells gave all the TDs to Marion Barber, who went two rounds earlier.

Right after I make the pick, the NFL Network shows replays of Barber scoring two TDs against the Broncos. Damn.

Round 7 — I would have pulled the trigger on Moss, but he's off the board. I'm feeling antsy I'm not going to have any Patriots. I need to have Patriots.

Pats D.

There. I feel better.

(Asante Samuel, get your ass in camp. It's personal now.)

Round 8 — Only a couple of picks until the turn. I need a break. Can't find anybody I think is good value. Still don't have anybody on the Pats offense. Too early for Wes Welker.

Donte Stallworth.

I immediately regret it.

Round 9 — Refreshed, I go into the second half with good depth at WR. I still don't have a starting QB, and none of my backs are sure things. I need some targeted value at need positions.

Calvin Johnson.

Wait, what?

Maybe this is why I never win.

Round 10 — Time to take a QB. Jon Kitna is tops on my list. I should just take him. But I don't trust the Lions, plus I just took Johnson. That was stupid.

Remember the basics. When in doubt, go to the best teams in the league. Tony Romo is off the board, so it's between Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler. Rivers threw for 3,388 yards with 22 TDs and 9 INTs last year. In just five games, Cutler threw for 1000 yards with 9 TDs and 5 INTs. But I just have a feeling about the Broncos. Plus, I have Gates. I don't like having two members of the same passing game.

Cutler it is.

Mike Shanahan, don't fail me now.

Round 11 — Finally, some good fortune. Brandon Jackson, the Packers' rookie RB from Nebraska, slips through. I have high hopes.

Round 12 — My buddy Kev, a diehard Dolphins fan who has had to watch me watch the Pats win for the past five years, starts the round off with an "everybody points at you and laughs" pick by taking the ninth ranked kicker on his sheet, Stephen Gostkowski, just to spite me. Everybody points and laughs.

(Except I'm secretly pissed because I really wanted Gostkowski. Kev knows this. Bastard.)

Anyway, I take Leon Washington from the Jets to cover my Thomas Jones pick. I feel better.

Round 13 — We're into the fourth quarter. This is where fantasy seasons are made. There's some great value out there. I happily grab Drew Bennett, now of the Rams. He's fantastic value for the 13th round. Plus, I live in St. Louis. Might as well have at least one Rams player.

Round 14 — Another great value pick with Jason Witten. I guarantee he puts up more than the one TD he got last year. I may use him as trade bait and pick up somebody like Bo Scaife from Tennessee or Zach Miller from Oakland. Until then, I have the best backup TE in the league.

(Side note: I was secretly happy when I saw Anthony Fasano hurt his shoulder against Denver. I know this makes me a terrible person, especially since I've liked Fasano going back to his Notre Dame days. Bad Seth. Baaaaaaaaaad Seth.)

Round 15 — I still need a second QB and second D, plus I don't have a kicker yet. Screw the kicker. I'll pick one up closer to the regular season once I see how the WRs and RBs play out through the rest of the preseason.

Cowboys. They're always on TV and now I have their starting RB and defense. I wish I got extra points for horse collars.

Round 16 — I'm surprised by how many choices I have at QB. I've got Jake Delhomme circled as a sleeper. Same with Byron Leftwich and Tarvaris Jackson. But I get this sense that I should go with a bigger upside guy, and I've got a feeling J.P. Losman steps up big this year. I'm betting on 25+ TDs, with probably around the same number of picks (14) as he threw last year. The key will be picking the games to start him. I'm thinking Week 15 at Cleveland might just finally get me the title.

So there it is, the 2007 O'Fallon Bourbonators. Overall, I'd give myself a B-. (Never, ever, EVER give yourself an A. It'll kill your season. Just trust me.)

It's all up to L.J.

Oh boy.

Seth Doria is a writer, editor and communications consultant based out of St. Louis. For daily reports on the world of sports, politics, and entertainment, or if you just want to say hi, visit The Left Calf.