Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror
It's difficult to gauge how the 2006 season went for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Herman Edwards arrived and produced a short-term gain, but the Chiefs simply look like they are headed for smaller and worse things going forward.
In a span of two years, the Chiefs have gone from offensive juggernaut to a one-dimensional outfit.
The Chiefs' passing game, particularly after quarterback Trent Green got hurt, became fairly conservative.
Once again — for about the fifth year in a row — the Chiefs had no real receiving weapons outside of Tony Gonzalez, and for a second year in a row, he was forced into blocking to help out the offensive line. Eddie Kennison once again provided his spotty production, but I'll give him credit. At least he is consistent for around 1,000 yards and a steady option each week, which is more than people want to give him credit for.
Unfortunately, with Gonzalez blocking and Kennson, a No. 2 wideout stuck in the top role, the Chiefs' passing game was very limited with what it could do.
The offensive line was in shambles, partly because of the impromptu retirement of left tackle Willie Roaf. He told the team when the NFL calendar changed, but management probably thought he was bluffing and ignored the position in the draft and free agency.
Even so, Larry Johnson plugged away and picked up a lot of yardage on the ground. He basically was the Chiefs offense and took a big punishment for doing so.
The good news was that Edwards improved the defensive performance of a team that was previously horrific at tackling, defending, tackling, and tackling.
The Chiefs found a pairing for defensive end Jared Allen as first-round pick Tamba Hali was on the grind from day one. The tandem combined for 15.5 sacks.
In the middle of the line, where the Chiefs used to enlist the worst talents of the NFL, Edwards found serviceable bodies in Ron Edwards and James Reed. That helped shore up the run defense.
The linebacking corps was a bit better with Derrick Johnson's growth, but they still struggled in pass defense. Kendrell Bell still didn't find his way into the regular rotation.
The secondary was somewhat of a strength as Ty Law and Patrick Surtain were a strong duo, especially considering the lack of help they had from the pass rush.
When you look at the defensive statistics, you figure that the defense wouldn't be this good. But Edwards preached basics with his football team: run the ball, stop the run, don't beat yourself, and execute. A perfect example: the Chiefs defense ranked 16th overall, but 12th in scoring.
Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Larry Johnson
All right, so everyone wants to praise Larry Johnson for having a great season. He set an NFL record for carries in the season and quite literally carried the Chiefs offense.
But many people make the point that he still thrived even though the Chiefs' offensive wasn't so good last year. That's not exactly true.
In 2005, when Johnson took over as a starter, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry with 15 rushes of 20 yards or longer in only nine starts.
In 2006, Johnson averaged only 4.3 yards per carry with only 10 rushes of more than 20 yards.
5.2 yards per carry is great; 4.3 yards per carry is borderline good.
The yards per carry drop was not his fault, but it is an ominous sign, since the offensive line is expected to be even worse this year.
In 2005, Johnson ran for 1,750 yards on 339 carries. In 2006, he had 80 more carries, but only 49 more yards.
That shows that the Chiefs' running game isn't necessarily effective. What it shows it that they force-fed Johnson in a bulk manner and ended up with a high total as a result.
I Saw The Ominous Signs, And It Opened Up My Eyes
Regardless of Larry Johnson's prospective holdout, there are plenty of concerns that point to Chiefs drafting in the top 10 next year.
Their choices at quarterback: a second-year, untested Brodie Croyle or journeyman Damon Huard, who is making more money than L.J.
Huard will be a flop if he gets the job. Last year, there was no pressure on him and we often see a quarterback come into a can't-lose situation and win, and then flop when there are expectations the following season.
But Huard won't start unless Croyle really messes up in training camp.
Croyle is the better long-term decision, but there will be many growing pains in the short-term.
The worst part of it is that the offensive line in front of him will be among the worst in the league. The Chiefs allowed 41 sacks in 2006 after allowing 32 in each of the previous two years. Last year, Willie Roaf retired. This year, Will Shields retired. Free agent pickup Damion McIntosh was supposed to secure the left side, but sprained his knee and may not be ready for opening week. Brian Waters is still a stud — the last one left — as Casey Wiegmann is nearing the end of his career.
As mentioned above, the Chiefs' running game looked better than it actually was simply because they gave so many carries to Johnson. This year they'll have Priest Holmes back and plan to use Michael Bennett more, but neither of those guys can take the pounding that L.J. can.
The other two backs will look horrific running behind this line, while L.J. will still average about 4 yards-per-carry.
The passing game doesn't figure to be significantly better, either. Finally, the Chiefs addressed their receiving corps by drafting Dwayne Bowe in the first round. But in a run-oriented offense with a raw quarterback and a shaky offensive line, don't expect him to have a big impact.
Kennison is now 34 and definitely in the twilight of his career. Tony Gonzalez, who is still a Pro Bowler, will once again have to block more than he should, especially with a young quarterback taking the reigns.
The strength of this team now lies on defense, which is a scary proposition.
The defensive line should be a respectable unit once Jared Allen returns from a two-game suspension, although he is disgruntled about his contract.
The linebacking corps should also be stronger than it has been in recent years. The Chiefs signed Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris to round out the three spots with Derrick Johnson. There is definitely more talent now — and more ability to cover the pass.
In the secondary, 33-year-old Ty Law is not what he used to be. Neither is 31-year-old Patrick Surtain. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are not grooming any replacements. Depth is also a concern.
At the back end, there are two good projects in Jarrad Page and Bernard Pollard. Both had quality rookie seasons and need to take control of the starting spots this year.
There are a lot of old, decrepit parts on this team mixed with a lot of youth and inexperience. There are certain pockets of prospects for the future, but not enough to say that this team will rebound in 2008.
With a couple of key injuries, this team could easily be competing with the Oakland Raiders for fourth in the AFC West.
Attending To The Defensive Tackles, After Avoiding The Position For Years
After years of simply ignoring the defensive tackle position and inserting random garbage that other teams had discarded, the Chiefs took the complete opposite approach this offseason: they went completely overboard.
First, they signed their own veterans James Reed and Ron Edwards to three- and four-year contracts, then gave starter's money to Alfonso Boone, a career backup in Chicago. Then they signed Jimmy Wilkerson to a one-year flier.
All of this was done in accordance with their draft, where they spent their second and third round picks on defensive tackles.
This team needs help at too many positions to focus so much attention at defensive tackle. How about adding another young cornerback or wide receiver?
Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line/Wide Receiver — One of the best lines in the league two seasons ago is now a shadow of itself. The wide receiver has been a consistent weakness.
Offensive X-Factor: Larry Johnson — He might hold out into the season because he knows that this is a two-win team without him.
Defensive X-Factor: Safeties — The Chiefs have two young good ones in Page and Pollard, but need them to make jarring hits and game-altering plays. They haven't had that from their safeties in a while.
Fantasy Market: Sell High
Larry Johnson: Johnson has nowhere to go, and probably won't hold out, but he has more leverage than any other holdout in recent memory. He knows that they plan to start a young, untested quarterback. Even with Johnson, the Chiefs are not a winning team and without him, they will have the first pick in the 2008 draft.
Even if he comes back, he's running behind a terrible offensive line without a threat at quarterback (yet), which means he'll have to face even more attention in the box this year.
Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore, and even Peyton Manning are better options.
Tony Gonzalez: Contrary to public opinion, his skills haven't really deteriorated. His decline in stats is mostly due to the fact that he has to help out the offensive line and spend more time blocking instead of releasing on his routes. That won't change this year, which means that he isn't worth being the second tight end drafted.
Eddie Kennison: Never a great fantasy option to begin with, Kennison might even drop from consideration as a No. 2 option. He's 34-years-old and is playing with an inexperienced quarterback.
Dwane Bowe: Rookie wide receiver in a run-first offense. Good luck with that.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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