Looking at 2006 in the Rear View Mirror
After a heart-breaking playoff performance in the 2005 AFC Championship game, it looked like the Indianapolis Colts wave had hit its high point and started to roll back.
Following their even-keeled head coach, Tony Dungy, the Colts simply continued to persevere and finished as Super Bowl champions.
There have rarely been any concerns in regards to the Colts' offense, but there was a minor issue at the beginning of last year. Stalwart runner Edgerrin James had departed to Arizona via free agency, leaving first-round pick Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes to fill his shoes.
The tandem passed every test with flying colors and were fresh throughout the whole season. Neither carried close to the 312 carries, which is what James averaged in his seven seasons in Indy.
After Peyton Manning ripped his offensive line after the playoff loss in 2005, the front five kept Manning's jersey clean in 2006. They allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL (15).
The main issues were on the other side of the ball, where the Colts couldn't seem to stop any of their opponents. In fairness, the Colts only lost four games, but the way their run defense finished up the season, there were questions as to how they would succeed in the playoffs.
The Colts signed former Pro Bowl defensive Corey Simon in the offseason, who was supposed to clog up the middle and prevent easy rushing gains. But Simon missed the entire season with an undisclosed injury, leaving a huge vacancy. Compounding the problem was a car accident that involved the Colts' other starting defensive tackle, Montae Reagor, who would also only make five games.
Much of the success in Dungy's defensive scheme depends on the front lines and without their best personnel, the levies broke in Indianapolis. The Colts acquired disgruntled tackle Anthony McFarland from Tampa Bay, who thrived under Dungy previously. It took him some time to grow acclimated to the defense and his new surroundings, but he paid dividends in the playoffs.
Another problem for the Colts was that their top safety, Bob Sanders, was dealing with a lingering knee injury that kept him on a week-to-week basis.
Combined all of the above issues with the loss of Mike Doss for the season, and it is evident why the Colts run defense was shredded in the regular season.
But once the playoffs hit, Sanders was a go each week and McFarland had found his comfort zone.
The biggest achievement for the Colts in 2006 was the fact that they exorcized their ghosts and finally defeated Tom Brady's Patriots in the playoffs. It seemed like the problem was mental — and it probably was — but the Colts battled back from a 21-3 deficit against a team that simply had their number. That put their growth on display, even though most pundits believed they had regressed from the previous season.
The Colts' championship season followed a different pattern than in recent seasons. They had to overcome serious injuries, they didn't finish the regular season on a hot streak, and they didn't win it with defense. Props to them for an improbable and impressive Super Bowl season.
Using Letters to Breakdown Numbers: Linebackers
The Colts' defense has been a linebacker factory since Tony Dungy took over and given their track record, they have always opted to let their burgeoning stars walk and replenish the depth through the draft.
From Mike Peterson, to Marcus Washington, to the latest defector, Cato June, the Colts have always had an in-house solution.
But the Colts may miss June more than they missed the others. Not only did June lead the team in tackles in 2006, he is also one of the defense's playmakers.
The two remaining veterans slated to start, Gary Brackett and Rob Morris, are solid with tackles, but don't produce many game-changing plays.
Last season, in addition to June's 142 tackles, he added three interceptions, two forced fumbles (one recovered), and a sack.
In the last three seasons, June has 10 interceptions, two touchdowns, and eight passes defensed. In that span, Morris and Brackett have combined for 6 interceptions, 9 passes defensed, and no touchdowns.
Brackett only has two forced fumbles for his career and although he is approaching what should be his best season, the fact that he hasn't created more game-altering plays to this point might show that he is just a good starter — not the Pro Bowl caliber of Peterson, Washington, or June.
The Colts should miss June more than they missed the others, but don't fret for too long, they will have a new body in there making plays — possibly Freddie Keiaho — shortly.
Is Repeating the Hardest Thing?
It's early August and NFL predictions are as common as DUI arrests, so here's another one: the Colts will not repeat as Super Bowl champs.
The Colts did overcome quite a bit of adversity last year to make it a championship season, but there are too many factors weighing them down already for 2007.
For starters, they have once again endured a severe blow at defensive tackle, losing a starter for the entire season. Last year, they lost Corey Simon. This year, they will be without his replacement, Anthony McFarland.
Making matters worse is the release of Simon and the departure of Montae Reagor. The Colts are now extremely thin at a position that is crucial to stopping the run.
The linebacking corps also is at a shortage as stud Cato June defected to Tampa Bay.
Brackett is great for tackles, and Morris doesn't let many slip his grip, but neither bring the many turnovers or sacks to the table. Also, Morris has been used as a depth option in the past and with him among the starting three, the depth is shortened.
The secondary did some growing the in the postseason, but outside of Bob Sanders, they are nothing special.
The Colts lost starting corners Jason David and Nick Harper to free agency, which means youngsters Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden have to step it up. Sanders is the veteran of this group and although he is one of the better safeties in the league when he's on the field, he is not on it consistently.
This secondary's statistics will once again look horrible, mostly because of the offense. Teams need to score points against the Colts to keep up, which will force this young group into action more than they would like.
The Colts' offense returns mostly intact, minus runner Dominic Rhodes and left tackle Tarik Glenn.
The latter will be the biggest subtraction on the team since quality left tackle replacements simply aren't readily available on the waiver-wire.
The front office was mocked when they selected tackle Tony Ugoh in the second round, which may have been high for the Arkansas tackle, but at least they have a potential in-house solution for Glenn's untimely retirement.
I wouldn't worry about this offense too much; the same constituents are still present with even more weaponry.
With Ben Utecht, Dallas Clark, and Bryon Fletcher, the Colts have ample tight ends to set up in two-tight end formations. Clark can also split out, if need be. We know about the wideouts the Colts boast and they added a slot weapon with first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez, who will probably take a while to figure out how this offense really works.
One concern might be the lack of a secondary running back outside of Joseph Addai. He will get a lot of touches this year, especially since they plan to use him more as a receiver, as well. He had the luxury of Rhodes last year, which helped keep him fresh and spelled him when he struggled.
There is no question that the roster has weakened over the offseason, but the Colts are not facing personnel holes that they haven't plugged in the past. They have overcome losses at DT, LB, and RB under Dungy. They have endured the rigors of using a very young, inexperienced secondary. The only difference will be playing without left tackle, Tarik Glenn. Expect teams to really gun for them — even more so than in the past — since they are now officially the top dog, but the Colts will definitely be back barking in the playoffs.
Biggest Weakness: Depth — The Colts are thin everywhere with DT, OLB, CB, FS standing out. The offense is fine, for the most part.
Offensive X-Factor: Tony Ugoh — I could give you the generic answer, but Ugoh's role — replacing Glenn — is very important. Manning hasn't had to worry about his blindside yet and doesn't want to start now.
Defensive X-Factor: Gary Brackett — He's been a tackling machine, but with June gone, needs to make more plays (turnovers and sacks).
Fantasy Market: Sell High
There are a number of fantasy owners that are taking a shot with Anthony Gonzalez late in their drafts, but keep your expectations tempered for the first-round pick.
When people think of Gonzalez, they think of Brandon Stokley from two seasons ago, but keep in mind that there are a lot of other weapons on this offense. Aside from Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, the Colts have three quality tight ends and a running back they plan to use more in the passing game.
More than all of those reasons, though, the Colts passing offense — and all of Manning's checkdowns — are a tough learn. Wayne took a couple of years to get accustomed to this offense and Gonzalez will do the same. His production will be spotty in year one.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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