Looking at 2006 in the Rear View Mirror
So you were among the guys that thought Brett Favre should retire.
Well, Barry Bonds he is not, as Favre was a legitimate contributor to the Packers and helped them through what was essentially a rebuilding year.
As a matter of fact, he is the opposite of Bonds. Favre, even though he was approaching many passing records, still cared more about the team than personal accomplishments.
After a 29-interception effort in 2005, Favre bounced-back somewhat and had a one-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.
But the problem last season, more than in 2005, was the lack of support he had from wide receivers, tight ends, and the offensive line.
Starting upfront, with two rookies at the guard spots, Jason Spitz and Darren Colledge, the Packers were fairly green at first. But as the line jelled down the homestretch, Favre enjoyed better protection.
Outside of Donald Driver, Favre had a severe shortage of reliable weapons to throw to.
Greg Jennings looked like a stud early on before injuries forced him to fade off in the second half. Without him, Favre grew frustrated with miscommunications and dropped passes from young wideouts.
Even the tight end position, manned by three-time Pro Bowler Bubba Franks and other capable receivers, never provided a safety valve.
The Packers particularly struggled in the red zone, where their efficiency ranked dead last in the NFC.
On defense, the Packers were better than most people might think. They ranked 12th overall and allowed opponents to convert 32.8% third downs (fourth-best).
The Packers spent the previous offseason adding some pieces to the defense and it worked.
They were mocked for signing cornerback Charles Woodson, who hadn't posted a good season in over two years, but he re-paid them with a career-best eight interceptions. The other free agent splash, tackle Ryan Pickett, proved to be a valuable run-stuffer.
First-round pick linebacker A.J. Hawk took a burden off of the shoulder of incumbent Nick Barnett, and led the team in tackles.
The biggest growth on defense was the line, which was really clicking as the season finished.
End Aaron Kampman produced his first Pro Bowl season, and his opposite, Cullen Jenkins, proved to be an effective starter, as well. That pushed pass rushing specialist Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to the bench, which kept him fresh for those situations.
The Packers generated 46 sacks (fourth-best in the NFL) and 28 of them came from the ends.
Aside from a gaping hole at free safety, where the Packers made their one mistake in free agency by signing Marquand Manuel, the defense was very strong last season and is definitely looking up.
While everyone wants to tab the Detroit Lions or the San Francisco 49ers as the next sleeper out of the NFC, the Packers are the best candidate. The Packers won their final four games and boast a burgeoning defense and an offense that can go up from last year.
Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: Tight Ends
While the new wave of tight ends are meant catch 40-yard bombs in between two deep safeties, or take 12-yard receptions and outrun cornerbacks to the end zone, the Packers still rely on old-fashioned safety-valve tight ends.
That was until last year, when those valves broke.
Bubba Franks, a former first-round pick, was extremely unreliable last year, which directly impacted Favre, who has always had a solid connection with his tight ends.
Franks has caught only 25 passes per year in the last two years (was injured in 2005) after averaging nearly 38 receptions per season in his first five campaigns. Furthermore, Franks, who has 29 career touchdown catches, for the first time in his career did not catch a single touchdown pass.
If you are wondering why the Packers red zone efficiency was worst in the NFL, this is one of the major reasons.
In 2005, the Packers' trio of tight ends, Franks, David Martin, and Donald Lee, combined for 85 receptions, 725 yards, and 6 touchdowns.
Those numbers dipped to 56, 580, and 2 in 2006.
It hurt even more last year as Favre dealt with a lack of support from young wide receivers and then had his pillars of consistency at tight end crumble in front of him.
There is no disputing that Favre's best years are behind him, but he is still effective as a starter. What he can't do any longer is take average parts and carry them into the playoffs. He needs help from his receivers, which starts with the production at tight end.
Why The Packers Are a Better Sleeper Than the Lions
By default, anyone is a better sleeper choice than Detroit.
All right, pot-shots aside, the Packers are a better sleeper choice than Detroit because of a few reasons.
For starters, they have players on their rosters with a history of winning. They don't have to learn, figure out, or understand how to put their best foot forward in key situations; they have done that before.
Secondly, their model of success is based on a strong defense that is going to get better.
The Packers have one of the best rotations at defensive end and have a solid interior that will add first-round pick Justin Harrell to the equation. At the second level, Hawk and Barnett are already a solid tandem, but both are young and should continue to get even better.
The starting cornerbacks are a veteran group who compare with the best tandems in the NFL, and now there is a fiery competition at the free safety spot and nickel back spot, two openings from a season a go.
The Packers already have a good defense that will crack the top-10 this year, but by no means are they an unbalanced team.
The offensive performance last year was more of a detour from the norm than it was a trend.
With a strong offensive line once again, Favre, and Donald Driver, the Packers won't be horrible.
They need bounce-back seasons from Franks and Lee at tight end, and they need Jennings to stay healthy. Last year, depth behind Driver and Jennings left the Packers exposed, but all of those prospects are a year older, and third-round pick James Jones looks like he can nail down the third receiving role regardless of what anyone else does.
It's true: Favre wanted Randy Moss and the Packers failed to get him. But Jennings in his second year should be better than he played in the first half of '06, and if Jones continues to impress like he has during the offseason, the Packers will have a strong trio.
That leaves a vacancy at running back, which is perennially the easiest position to fill. Runners are the cheapest commodity in the NFL and the Packers have second-round pick Brandon Jackson and incumbent Vernand Morency to replace Green's production.
Green has rushed for 1,314 yards and 5 touchdowns over the last two seasons; it's not as if the Packers have to replace LaDainian Tomlinson.
The Packers already have a good defense and have a few "what-ifs" on the offense that they are banking on to help make them a playoff team.
The Lions, on the other hand, are a team filled with "what-ifs" — albeit with more potential. They are working with less concrete facts, which is why the Packers are a better sleeper choice.
Why the Packers Are A Better Sleeper Than the 49ers
The 49ers are everyone's sleeper darling, but one reason the Packers may be the better choice is continuity.
The Packers return virtually all of their starters intact and the same coaching staff.
San Francisco has added a number of big pieces through free agency, which will at the very least take some time to assimilate them into the swing of things.
The 49ers lost offensive coordinator Norv Turner, who was instrumental in the development of quarterback Alex Smith and have reconstructed their receiving corps.
The Packers have the pieces intact already — they just need them to stay health and to perform to their capability.
Lambeau Luster is Back, Baby
The Packers will be back in the playoffs in 2007, which will likely be Favre's swan song.
There is a lot to like about this team (as mentioned previously) and as long as they can replace Green (and running back is one of the easiest positions to replace), then the Packers will turn some heads.
They finished 8-8 and barely fell short of a postseason berth, but have a burgeoning roster that will be more supportive of Favre this year.
More importantly, the Packers will finally take back their home-field advantage. The Lambeau luster has worn off in the previous three years: they are 10-14 in their last 24 home games.
If they post a winning record at home, they can close out Favre's career on a winning note.
Biggest Weakness: Lack of Superstars — The Packers are really good virtually everywhere on their roster, but they are not great in any one area.
Offensive X-Factor: Tight Ends — Running back position is easy to replace (see: Samkon Gado). Favre needs help in the red zone and he needs a set of reliable hands outside of Donald Driver. The tight ends must provide that.
Defensive X-Factor: Strong Safety — The Packers don't have any real leaks on defense outside of this one.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
Rookie running back Brandon Jackson is the easy pick here. The Packers have picked guys off the scrap heap to come in and run for them and all of them have been successful. Guys like Noah Herron, Najeh Davenport, Samkon Gado, and Vernand Morency have thrived as runners in this offense and Jackson has more talent than all of those guys.
Morency is a nice change-of-pace runner, but doesn't have the bulk to be the main carrier on season long. He's also battling a knee injury already, which should open the door for Jackson to take the reigns.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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