Looking at 2006 in the Rear View Mirror
Following a disastrous two-win season and the whole "Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush" decision, the Texans seemingly had only one way to go.
But with a new coaching running the show, the Texans actually fell even further before they started back on their way up.
They were 3-8 after 11 games with two of their wins coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team they own (for some inexplicable reason).
In those eight losses, their opponents scored 224 points (28/game) while the Texans themselves averaged less than 15 points per game.
Considering they were losing by an average of two touchdowns per week, they were not quite rebuilding yet.
The court of public opinion will pin the blame on supposed franchise quarterback, David Carr, but it was not completely his fault.
Physically, opposed from the beating that he took over five seasons, Carr was fine. He finished with a career-best 68.3 completion percentage, which was actually the best percentage in the NFL among starting quarterbacks. Given his lack of help from receivers, running backs and the offensive line, that's decent.
But the problem was more mental. The team had simply lost confidence in his ability and needed some kind of change to instill a fresh breath of optimism. It was clear that nobody believed in him anymore.
The real fault was on defense, virtually at every level, and on offense, everywhere except for Andre Johnson.
On defense, the Texans had burned their third consecutive draft pick on a defensive line and shelled out a lot of money for free agent Anthony Weaver but the front four failed to make a serious impact as they totaled only 28 sacks.
Williams dealt with plantar fasciitis and was moved around a lot, which was a detriment to his growth.
Behind him, the Texans had decent linebackers. DeMeco Ryans led the league in tackles and was easily the defense's best player in his first season. Morlon Greenwood completed his third consecutive solid season in Houston.
The secondary, though, was much more of a mess. Outside of Dunte Robinson, who is among the league's most overlooked cornerbacks, the Texans had compiled a pile of garbage around him. Their safety tandem of C.C. Brown and Glenn Earl might be the worst in the NFL. Nobody in the secondary finished with more than two interceptions, while Earl and Brown combined for two. Only Miami and Washington had fewer interceptions than the Texans.
On offense, it took the offensive line until December to start to thrive in the zone blocking scheme. Losing left tackle Charles Spencer definitely didn't help.
If you're looking for positives going forward, how about this:
- The Texans finished 3-2 in their final five games
- The running game really picked up in those five games, as Ron Dayne and Chris Taylor combined for 558 yards and 6 touchdowns in December
- Andre Johnson led the NFL in receptions with 103 receptions
The Texans may have gotten to six wins, but they still have a long way to go to get back to .500.
Using Letters to Break Down Numbers: David Carr
All things considered, the fact that David Carr led the NFL in completion percentage should tell you something: he's still a good quarterback.
Last year, he really made an effort to revive his career for the new coaching staff and tried to use their arrival as a spark.
Not many people stop to glance over his game-by-game numbers, and simply look at the final product, which were the endless losses, but Carr was on-pace for a career-year last year.
Carr had a quarterback rating of 95.2 or higher in five of his first six games, while throwing 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions in that span.
What's impressive about that is that he still had no weapons, was sacked 16 times in those five games and compiled those numbers against Philadelphia, Miami, Jacksonville, and Dallas — all defenses that are in the upper echelon of the league.
One thing Carr can't hide from is his 12 interceptions to 11 touchdowns, a subpar ratio, but keep in mind that Carr had a 4-interception effort in a 40-7 blowout against New England.
Another deficiency that is frequently pointed out about Carr's game is his penchant for fumbling. He tied a career-high with seven lost fumbles in 2006 and has 13 in the past two seasons. Here's a tip: protect your quarterback so that he is not running for his life, which will naturally equate to less hits/pressures and less fumbles.
Carr is still a very good quarterback, but he was asked to carry the whole offense on his own shoulders without much help.
In the NFL, the environment where a player is cultivated is crucial and although Carr's surroundings were not right in Houston, don't be surprised to see him thrive in a much better situation in Carolina.
What is There to Look Forward to on Offense?
Well here is "the glass half-full" approach: the Texans won six games (including three of their last five) and lost two games on last second plays (vs. BUF, vs. TEN)).
They finished strong, particularly the offense, which grew more accustomed to the zone-blocking scheme. Ron Dayne, who was left for dead by most teams, accumulated 429 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in four December starts.
On offense, the Texans will look to Matt Schaub to be their franchise quarterback. Schaub brings with him a renewed confidence that the Texans are moving in the right direction.
Schaub makes faster decisions than Carr and is a natural leader. With a zone-blocking system in place under a man who used to run Denver's offense, Schaub will likely never feel the punishment that Carr took.
He'll have a decent running back tandem behind him as the Texans picked up Ahman Green and his lofty price tag. Green will be working with a former coach Mike Sherman, who is an assistant head coach. He was quite productive under Sherman.
Green and Dayne will work well in the zone-blocking scheme and will take a large burden off of Schaub.
The Texans haven't added much to their wide receiving corps, but it should still be slightly improved. While the Eric Moulds experiment failed, they signed another veteran again in Keenan McCardell. He won't be much of a threat but should serve as a decent on-field coach.
One player that could really help this offense out is tight end Owen Daniels. He emerged after the idea of having Jeb Putzier as the teams top tight end was flushed down the toilet.
The Texans still don't have a viable No. 2 threat opposite of Andre Johnson but will try to use Kevin Walter, McCardell, and a bunch of youngsters to draw some attention away.
The offensive line returns virtually intact, although Spencer is still recovering from a serious knee injury. He won't play until Week 7 at the earliest. In a zone-blocking scheme, the linemen typically overachieve and the sum of the parts is greater than the individual parts. They improved down the stretch of last season, so look for some more growth this year.
Overall, with a new quarterback, running back and the franchise left tackle out for six games, expect there to be some rough spells early on. They will need to build chemistry, which could take more than a month.
The Matt Millen Guide to Drafting Defensive Linemen
While Lions' GM Matt Millen gets shredded for drafting wide receivers three years in a row, how come the Texans don't get as much heck for their misses with defensive linemen?
The Texans have now drafted defensive linemen in the first round in each of the last four seasons and have reaped nothing more than Mario Williams' decent rookie season.
Jason Babin and Travis Johnson aren't exactly Mike Williams- and Charles Rogers-type busts, but needless to say, there were higher expectations. Johnson is lazy, but Babin finally turned into a solid situational rusher, leading the team with five sacks last year.
Williams won't be a flop and the Texans are hoping the same for this year's first-rounder, Amobi Okoye.
Igor Olshansky, Tank Johnson, and Darnell Dockett were drafted after Babin and Marcus Spears, Luis Castillo, and Mike Patterson all went lower than Johnson.
The bottom line is that this line should be good going to dominant by now, but they are still barely approaching "effective."
What is There to Look Forward to on Defense?
Since the Texans didn't make any significant changes to the back seven of their defense, the front four is what will make or break them.
All eyes will once again be on Williams, mostly because the Texans could have had Reggie Bush or Vince Young instead.
Williams had a pretty good season all things considered. He finished second on the team with 4.5 sacks and fifth on the team with 47 tackles. With Anthony Weaver on the other end, along with Babin, there is a good rotation.
In the middle, waiver-wire pickup Anthony Maddox proved to be a good component last year and will be the main run stuffer. There is still some minimal hope that Johnson will come around and push him for the job.
Every bit of success on defense is contingent on the front four generating pressure. Weaver only has three sacks in the last two seasons and the Texans need at least six-to-seven from him this year. They will also need even more from Williams and steady pressure on the interior from Okoye if they plan on getting to eight wins.
There are two need line coaches, which are supposed to get all of these guys to play better.
The linebacking trio has one vacancy: the one spot not filled by a guy named Ryans or Greenwood.
For some reason, the Texans completely ignored the secondary's needs outside of fourth-round pick Fred Bennett and fifth-round pick Brandon Harrison, so don't expect their performance to improve greatly unless the front four helps them out.
The Texans don't have many playmakers on this defense outside of the defensive line as evidenced by their 22 takeaways last season (29th in NFL). Almost any success here is contingent on their performance.
Biggest Weakness: Safety — If C.C. Brown and Glenn Earl were cut today, they probably wouldn't start on any other team in the NFL.
Offensive X-Factor: Ahman Green — The Texans franchise has never had a solid running game and needs somebody to step up and be a reliable carrier.
Defensive X-Factor: Amobi Okoye — Williams is going to be better in his second season, but he needs someone else to distract attention and generate pressure to keep extra blockers away.
Fantasy Market: Buy Low
This isn't exactly a Denver running back situation but it is a running back in an offense developed by a former Broncos' offensive coordinator. Many people are afraid of drafting Green, but just take a glance at the numbers that Dayne put up in December as the offensive line adjusted to the new scheme. Assuming the offense improves, they won't be playing from behind as much, which means more opportunities for Green to be a solid No. 2 fantasy running back.
"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to [email protected].
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